Welcome to wash the post live. Im David Ignatius a columnist for the post my guest today is bill browder. Who was the founder of Hermitage Capital one of the biggest investors in russia after the fall of communism. Now one of the biggest critics in the world of russian president Vladimir Putin, mr. Brighter has a new book freezing order the true story of Money Laundering murder and surviving Vladimir Putins wrath bill bradder. Thank you so much for joining us on Washington Post live. Great to be here. Thank you. Before we talk about your book. I want to first ask our viewers to join in our conversation if you have questions for bill browder, please tweet them to us at post live and well try to select the questions that come in over the next half hour and and put them to our our guest second. I want to ask you to focus before we talk about your book on the war in in ukraine it be interested in your sense of the the battlefield right now as russia launches its second round they failed in their efforts to capture keith. How do you assess this next phase of the war that began this week . Well putin doesnt doesnt do humiliation. Well. And hes been humiliated the first eight weeks of the war. Everybody thought that well everyone thought in the first two days of the war that russia would would roll into ukraine they would take over kiev that zelensky would flee and and they could then raise the russian flag and and with great pride and and patriotism. And it turned out to be a total disaster the theyve lost by by some estimates more than 20,000 troops, which is twice as many troops as the soviet union lost in afghanistan. Theyve lost more than a thousand tanks many planes, etc. Etc. The their flagship the mosque of our was sunk. Which is one of the greatest naval losses in the last quarter century, so this has been a big humiliation for Vladimir Putin and in that lead lead up with the introduction. I was saying on a different tv show that the purpose of this whole war is for Vladimir Putin to get everybody to rally around the flag to back him so he could boost his own popularity. And the russians dont know right now that some that that theyre losing this war, but if they were to know putin would be really on on in dire straits for him to have have done something so costly for russia both in terms of lives and in terms of money and then having such a humiliation is not a it would be a very very dangerous thing for Vladimir Putin. And so i think what one can expect in this next next phase is a a very serious escalation how thats defined and what they do is yet to be seen but i think what we can say very very clearly is that that Vladimir Putin cant cant let matters lie where they are and be seen to be a failure and a loser and and thats what he looks like based on any objective analysis right now. Let me ask you about the response from the us and and nato President Biden was on television yesterday announcing a new 800 Million Dollar package of military assistance the second of that size in a week. Theyre all sorts of weapons in that in in that in that package, but i want to ask you as you look at. The order of battle if you will do you think the us is doing enough and if youre doubtful about that, what more do you think we should do . Well, its interesting because it because i think the us is doing a pretty good job. Definitely not enough and ill get into in a second, but i think that the us is doing a pretty good job, but its its always a little bit. Too little too late i mean we should have started this whole, you know, huge military armament a lot much longer ago. We should have started sanctions sanctioning oligarchs a few oligarchs before the war even began to give putin a taste of what was to come. And it just seems that there is this. This overriding feeling that we dont want to provoke putin. We dont want to get him mad. And so every time he does something to to make us shocked we do something in reaction, but we not doing proactively and so yes, we have helped ukraine a lot. And i and i im and im very happy with the fact that that the us and in the uk and various other countries are supplying military equipment and in in large amounts to the ukrainians because thats what they need. But if you remember like a month ago. The polls wanted to transfer 20 planes and then the us said no, we dont want to do that. And as far as im aware, either those planes or some version of those planes have been transferred. And so why did we stop that a month ago . And and similarly every time you know that theyre talking about a no, theyve been the ukraine has been talking about a nofly zone since the beginning of this thing and and in fact right now in moriopol, theres just, you know constant aerial bombardment of of that part of the country. You know, i think were gonna get to a point when when were gonna supply a nofly zone we and and our allies and and you know and and when we get to that point we can look back and say why did we resist for so long . Why did we have to lose 50,000 a hundred thousand ukrainian civilians before we got to that point and so on a military basis. I think theres theres more that can be done. Were doing a lot but theres more that can be done. And then coming to the sanctions. Again, i i would say that that were doing a pretty good job in in a certain way. I mean compared to what has ever been done before against russia or against any country for that matter. I would say that the current sanctions. That are being imposed are the most farreaching the most dramatic that have ever been imposed. But were not were not there yet. Yeah in in my opinion the purpose of sanctions at this point is not that we should expect the oligarchs to rise up because i dont think that i think theyre all too scared to do that and the purpose of the sanctions is not also not to get the people of russia to rise up because at the moment because of all this sort of frenzy and of hysteria in terms of pro putin nationalism, theyre all with him. I think the purpose of sanctions and this is very important is is to cut off the flow of money to russia so that putin cant fund this war. And weve done a bunch of good things to do that. We have sanctioned the Central Bank Reserves of russia 60 of those Central Bank Reserves are in currencies that are frozen by the us and its allies. Weve cut off a number of banks from swift. About 70 of the banks from swift. Well, we should cut off a hundred percent of the banks from swift. It makes no sense because if you cant use one bank to make dollar transfers or other transfers you can use and one of the un sanctioned banks and then on the oligarch front weve weve sanctioned about 32 oligarchs and when i say we the United States the sanction some the eu others, theyre not all the same people. Theres 118 oligarchs and the oligarchs are the ones who hold putins offshore cash and they should be sanctioned all 118 of them. Coming back to the question of what additional assistance the us can provide. That obviously one problem with say a nofly zone. Is that the military would tell you to enforce it . The us would have to be prepared to and probably would directly engage Russian Military aircraft and youd have a situation where the us was shooting russian planes down. Brushes and Nuclear Weapons state a dress the the fundamental question that we face here. What do you do when you have somebody our president is called a war criminal who also has Nuclear Weapons. How do you deal with that problem . Well, we have that problem today before we ever shoot down a russian plane. So just imagine so here we are. We are telling Vladimir Putin the president of the United States is saying to Vladimir Putin, were not going to get involved with you because youre a Nuclear State and we dont want to shoot down a plane and engage with you nuclearly. So whats the message that Vladimir Putin gets so the message is very simple. So what does he do next . But lets just say that that hes had his fun with ukraine. He then pulls up at the estonian border. He points a bunch of weapons at estonia and then he points a Nuclear Warhead at washington berlin and london. And then he says to us. Are you ready to have a nuclear war with me over this country . Its the same question. Its the exact same question. And then what do we respond . We say no, we dont want a nuclear war with you you can have estonia and by the way take lithuania poland latvia and romania as well that way, but its not the same question because those are nato countries and we have an article 5 commitment to nato countries ukraine is not a member of nato. So its just really not the same thing. Is it well we have the budapest memorandum where were we said, well you give up your territory you give up your Nuclear Weapons and well protect your territorial integrity. I mean these i i mark my words if we ever get to this point in estonia, there will be on every on fox and cnn and msnbc every all sorts of pundits and analysts are gonna come on and say do we want to risk, you know millions of people dying for for this country that most people cant locate on a map. I mean, its its the same thing at some point. I mean he is in a position right now where hes gonna hes challenging every rule. Every every tradition every border in what hes doing in ukraine and and we can face it now or we can face it later. And so i would argue that its better to help the ukrainians win this war then then ending up in a situation where where we are are basically folding to putins bluff because he has the Nuclear Weapons either in the future or now, and he will threaten us with Nuclear Weapons in the future or now, and and the one thing he does respect and and ive seen this time and time again, is he restrict he respects strength. He understands that if hes in a Nuclear Confrontation with the United States, um, that that is something he doesnt want to do. And and but what he what he what he takes advantage of is all of us bowing our heads down and say we dont want to engage with you because were because we dont want to get engaged with you that that is that that is an invitation for him to do whatever were not challenging him on. So i want to come back to the question of how we will win this war short of a direct the military conflict with russia, which truly nobody wants the strategy that the the vitaministration with its. Nato allies has is to impose that are so devastating that they effectively shut down russias ability to make war and really cripple its economy sets economy economy back decades, you know a lot about the russian economy having invested there successfully when it just ask you whether that basic strategy it is viable and you talked about ways to to make it bite more extending various aspects of these sanctions how soon if if that was done. Do you think russia would really be at its knees and forced forced to pull back. Well, theres were not were nowhere near there yet. Theres a couple of things i didnt have time to mention which are the elephants in the room. The first one is that yes is great that weve weve done the Central Bank Sanctions as yes, its great that weve done the oligarchs but every day without fail the west and i particularly mean germany and italy and so on are sending a billion dollars. To putin by buying russian oil and gas and thats a lot of money a billion dollars a day and since by some estimates, thats what russias spending on their war effort. And so and then thats what europeans European Countries are paying them and so its kind of a wash, you know money in money out. And so if you look at it that way were not degrading their ability at all were, you know from a business standpoint. Theres theres you know, if you if you were to say russia as a company, they have a bunch of assets on their balance sheet, which weve frozen but they have a bunch of income coming in on their income statement. You have a bunch of revenue coming in all of this oil oil sales. And that were not we havent really messed with yet. And thats a harder not to crack but one because germany and italy and all these countries are so dependent on russian gas and two because the gas and oil prices are so high and theres theres two ways to deal with this and one thing which which would have which would be have an outsized effect. And be really crucial in this whole thing is if we could get the oil price down. And that is something that we could do because saudi arabia is the Largest Oil Producer in the world in theory. Theres still an ally of the United States. We provide all sorts of military protection for saudi arabia and if if they were to cooperate and turn on their taps, they could pump out an additional one or two Million Barrels of oil a day. And if they were to do that that would push the oil price down by 30 and if the oil price went down by 30 then russian revenues would go down by 30 whether the germans cut off any gas or not. And if that were to happen, then we would be putting a serious dent into russias financial ability to wage this war. I should note that within the last few days saudi arabias crown prince. Mohammed have been salman had a lengthy phone conversation with one Vladimir Putin to talk about future continued cooperation. So im not holding my breath for saudi assistance on this course you youve made a point that i find fascinating when were talking about really squeezing the russian economy, and that is that the oligarchs the the corrupt russian economy. Weve been discussing are enabled by a network of people in europe in the United States primarily who do the banking who do some of the legal transactions who protect the flows of money who are really part of putins russian network. How would the United States in the west really go after that network of facilitators are there specific things that youd recommend are there . Already on the books that if enforced would would make a difference. Well, theres a really easy one. And this is one that i i was i was invited to testify about this issue in front of congress a couple weeks ago. And because ive been, you know a great witness and victim of these enablers working for the russian government who who are in sitting in the United States and in Great Britain in various places, and the first thing we can do and this is easy this this takes no effort is if you have a lets say a bunch of british enablers people that are known to be money launderers known to be lawyers representing the russian government attacking dissidents abroad, you know pr firms that are doing this this type of work. That that thats some thats something you could easily. The United States could say to the two to those people when they want to come to the United States. You can no longer have a visa to come here and similarly the uk could do the same thing for us the eu etc. And and thats something which it doesnt take much effort. A visa is a privilege. Its not a right if these people arent conducive to the Public Interest of the country. They could be banned from entry and thats something that would immediately like within seconds scare the hell out of everybody in the Legal Profession and all these other professions who who rely on moving around to move money and and of you know coordinate attacks on on journalists and whistleblowers etc and its something when when i aired this idea the cochairment of the Helsinki Commission a guy named representative stephen cohen, he loved it and he jumped on to it and he wrote to the secretary of state proposing it and actually naming the first six names of british lawyers. And and this is something that which im talking to british politicians about and european politicians next week about because i think its something that that would have an immediate effect and that now course, theres much bigger things that be doing if if these lawyers are are taking money or other people taking money from sanctioned individuals. They should be punished for violating sanctions and if theyre taking money thats that are the proceeds of crime they should be prosecuted for taking money from that of the proceeds of crime, but the key is just enforcement and actually recognizing this as a problem. Lets turn to your new book, and id ask you to tell our viewers that the basic story that youve narrated in in the book. You were a prominent investor in in russia you uh got into significant conflict with putin and those around him they turned on you and and began attacking you youre a lawyer sergeymanitsky died in in prison under horrifying circumstances. Just talk our viewers through that story and and what it taught you about how putins russia really operates. So well see you outline the first part of the story, which is the beginning of my book, which is the the murder the russian governments murder of Sergey Magnetsky my lawyer who uncovered a 230 Million Dollar corruption scheme and was testified against the officials involved and was subsequently arrested tortured for 358 days and killed for doing that. And his his murder really turned my change my life forever. It was the most heartbreaking awful thing that id ever experienced and he was killed because he was my lawyer