Panel there is a higher calling and obligation of democracy and countries that see themselves as accountable to their population and the broader world. Mykonos it in isolation thinking the world would not come to our door. It did for 9 11. Not without the informed Decision Making instructed by the Security Council with nato being high and what i suspect we will get to is syria. Hour. [no audio] should a side lose control in syria or hezbollah try to obtain them. I cant, and you guys are the experts, you i cant remember a time of more moving parts in the middle east puzzle than right now on this day, so much is now, and they are all, of course, interconnected. Hamas is testing israel. Israel is testing egypt. Theres more uncertainty than ever about syria, its relationship with iran, whether it can hold lebanon together, what is hezbollah doing now that its backers are in their own fights inside syria. The evolving role of qatar and saudi arabia, and turkey playing a role. Its enormous. Of anything at the security conference, this is probably the least secure discussion there is. Im reminded of bob dylans favorite song, along the watchtower, and that should be our anthem this morning. There must be a way out of here so lets aim for some relief and less confusion, and i want to propose the following format just for the beginning of this panel, and then i think i want to open it up to a lot of questions from the floor because im there are a lot of questions swimming in your head. Id like to propose our panelists talk about the flow of the situation right now, especially in syria. The what if scenarios. Well spend a little bit of time on, and then their recommendations and context and perspective on greater security in the region and what steps might be taken in syria in particular. The people we have on the panel today are close to the street, ear on the ground, and in their constituencies, they are people whose opinions are sought and whose opinions are listened to. I want to introduce a canadian journalist, shes also a member of the serian National Council formed in opposition to assad, holds a bachelors degree, canadian, a polysci degree and working on her ph. D. Right now. Lecturing in istanbul, the International Center for scholars, a special adviser to the turkish president in the snows. Named one of the most 100 powerful arab women last year, appears on u. S. Cable news channels quite often and the founder and chairman of the independent think tank beirut institute. Safeen, a member of the kurdistan democratic party. Hes also a member of the was a standingin member of the Iraqi Governing Council of the authority in 2004. He was exiled to the u. K. And returned to his homeland and is playing a very key role in its development in the kurdistan province. Lets make it a conversation, more oprah, fewer speeches, and hopefully everybody gets involved shortly. I want to begin by asking all the panelists to take a birds eye view first. How you see the flow happening in the region generally, in syria in particular, and where do you see some connections happening. Afra, would you like to begin . Hello, everyone. Good morning. Im replacing my colleague from the syria National Council. I was slightly surprised he chose me because he knows im in the Nonviolent Movement in syria, and im doing my ph. D. On the Nonviolent Movement in syria, and so its quite a privilege to be hearing your perspective and interesting to hear my perspective. Im almost tempted to do the title now of my ph. D. As the successful failure of nonviolence in syria because its some of you followed the events, the First Six Months was nonviolence, and that didnt happen by chance or coi understand dense. There was a coincidence, but a great deal of planning and conscious bind it; however, syrias been isolated for a long time from the International Community, and there was not enough awareness of the effectiveness of nonviolent. They felt with the brutality of the regime, they have to engage in what they call selfdefense calling for a nofly zone, and so the latest slogans in the demonstrations in syria started asking for International Intervention. It was around this time that the syria National Council was formed, whose mandate was to actually bring help to defend the civilians who were protesting. The reasons the main reason the syria did not want to back up has to do what happened to them in the 80s when the Syrian Regime brutally recrushedded that rebellion centered in the city of hamas and killed, according to the claims of the regimes, 38,000 people in a 27day campaign in the months of february in 1982. The people felt if they back off, they would be punished because in the 80s, after 82, the next following years, they punishedded them collectively, about 80,000 forcibly disappeared people whose files are still not closed, and thousands and thousands of prisoners of conscious. The syrians felt they have to continue at any cost. When help doesnt come, the idea of defense formed in the movement itself, and so those soldiers defecting from the army started creating small groups to defend, in fact, initially what they called the peacefulness of the revolution, and so they went around buildings because thats where snipers used to shoot peaceful protesters, but as an author said, defense is the first act of war. What happened is that in order to achieve this defense of civilians, the small groups, which increasingly also became joined by civilians who took up arms to defend the towns, families, and suburbs, started, actually, engaging in more proactive approaches, and they started taking check points and searching neighborhoods and towns and villages they started calling liberated areas, however, when they speeched in liberating the areas, especially as we see now in the north, they could not protect themselves in the air. That regime held air power, and the regime shelled people, including the use of barrel bombs which could go through several story buildings all the way to the basement. , of course, the casualty rate was tremendous, and, again, syria found themselves defendless, and at the moment, felt abandoned. However, the recent development, where we tried to bring a more Inclusive Coalition in the syria opposition is becoming a hopeful point for syria, that the armed struggle, if it goes under civilian leadership, it would lead to better results if there would not be interventions and nofly zone. Its the real fear because some of them, yesterday, to get to their perspective, those inside syria, activists, and the message they wanted to bring to all of you is that the democracy movement, the prohuman Rights Movement feel abandoned for the last few decades, and all of us have come to this point where in the west theres vulnerable security in the arab world. Theres an imploding of civil society. Thank you. The Development Last week, whats the best way your contacts in syria say it can be given, first of all, weight, and assurances that might take advantage of the situation . Well, from people in the opposition and people on the ground, they feel the coalition needs to be given a chance. Its, perhaps at the moment, the strongest viable option to have the arms struggle in syria and the civilian leadership. Because its chosen, the moderate reformer, an engineer by training, but also comes from a long line of islamic followers who expose ideas like feminist ideas, and then you have a nonbusiness person, and then, also, the head of the Syria Business Council from a christian background and secular feminists. Syria, when they look at the new leadership, feel they represent them, and that they have legitimacy on the ground because they came out of syria, and they are seen as inside opposition. Thank you. Drown into a couple altercations with the regime already. Can you give us a sense of how you see the flow in the region . Let me just refer to what the president of turkey said yesterday when addressed how he sees the situation in syria. He has said that of the countries, syria, and syria, in the sense, syria, may not exist anymore. Syria used to have since its foundation, following world war i and being an independent state and then the United Nations following world war ii is no more. They are in dissent of the magnitude of human tragedies. The population exchanges, and the damage done to the infrastructure of the country. In the material sense, and we are talking about the country of 2 million people, and more than 25 million who have been displaced. Only by a week ago, the refugees that were 160 ,000, lebanon more, and jordan even at the same skill of turkey. Our refugees, apart from those who are displaced within the country itself, and the regime in damascus cannot add to the control nearly 70 of the countryside of syria, and its urban centers, damascus and other parts, are battlegrounds between the oppositions and the regime so the before this started, reach today, march 15, 20 11, we could never think that we have too much march 14, 2011, its over. The syria [inaudible] the question we face in turkey, the region, and all over the world, what we know is that the religion ended, and yet the paradox is religion is in place in damascus so the question is when and how what day we will see assad reigning over syria and how it can be achieved, and what kind of a transition we will ever find syria in place to reassemble the conflict. I think in the western world, there is one dimension or one aspect of syria thats not very much noticed that is the kurdish aspect of it. Syria is not that homogenius country many used to think of. After the Parliament Development after the war in iraq near 2003, quasi independent, representatives with us, the region of government in place and now, roughly making up 10 of the population. The moment the regime collapses, we have come up to the scene, that would be demanding rights as has been in iraq so they will be looking even for an [inaudible] federal syria or an independent syria which will have vailing upon turkey a country with 50 more than the world, that cur key is supposed to be not reconciled themselves start less than theirs. Syria is more than [inaudible] faces a lot of uncertainties concerning syria. One followup question. You mentioned quite rightly theres a kurdish section of the syria population thats remained largely on the side of the armed conflicts. Do you foresee a time, you mentioned once the regime clamses, theres demands for kurdish atonomy, do you see kurd ish in syria defeat the assad regime militarily . They place themselves seemingly neutral because they have not reconciled their differences in the arab segment fearing opposition. The they want the arab commitment for the future of syria in terms of kurdish rights, and in our part of the world, the concepts, the atonoy, they are with dismemberment, fragmentation, and partition so they want to see syria, the opposition, itself, the islams component of the regime,ments the syria to continue arab country. Some minority rights are quoted to whoever the minority is, but the moment arrived historically, and they put back higher than think think, and so they dont reconcile yet, the syria opposition, but this will mean they are cooperating with the regime or not under takeing efforts for the collapse of the regime, but trying to control, and the areas, they are popular, represents majority of the population, the inhabitants, and therefore accountable for their own selfrule, and so it remains to be seen how the things will land because whenever the kurds meant something, turkeys question, and influence upon turkish position visavis syria, and so its complicated and complex, but for the snapshot, if you have the kurds do not move as active as their arab combatants in syria in terms of fighting. Of course, turkey was one of two countries officially recognizing the council from france being the other one. Raghida, do you want to respond . I want to say thank you for inviting me, again, this year, last year, i was in a new position, and i you know, im lebanese citizen, american citizen, live in new york, cover the United Nations, and so that is the way i look at it from the larger region of that international approach, and whatever you want to think of whats going on in the region now, everyone is looking at washington. What will the new president of the United States, what would be the president in the second term do about any of what he promised to do so lets look at the three obama promises. The first promise was in his first term when he said he will find a solution for the palestinianisraeli issue, and, unfortunately, we know what happened over the four years. That has not been that. Its an unfulfilled promise at best. Some see it as a failed promise. The second promise the president of the United States had, unprecedented as it is, when he said the United States would never allow iran to be a nuclear power. Now, this is unprecedented whether right or wrong, but its something that was done not only during the elections, but a statement made by the president more than once, and i think it was in connection of promises made also to the israeli prime minister. How, will president obama fulfill the promise . Wiggle out of it . Absolutely implement it whether its militarily or through containment policy, and what are they doing from my point of view, one of the reasons or a fascinating part about the gaza operation is that, a, they are giving hamas a lead in creating the new dynamics or dictating dynamics in an alliance of the Muslim Brotherhood leaderships be it in egypt or turkey, and its probably the move to undermind the Palestinian Authority because hes going to the United Nations asking for the status of the states, observer state, but the change of subject, at least by the israelis away from iran and syria, on to gaza, to me, is a very fascinating development. Is it temporary or going to be an ongoing how long is that change of subject . Sometimes leaders and security people know better. They feel they could have contained escalation. Maybe thats what they have in mind. Is it doable . Does it work in this part of the region we live in . The third promise president obama made, again, never made any commitments to syria on syria except on the chemical weapons. Now, we understand right now that, you know, theres concern there was a suggestion of a need of 70 ,000 troops in order to secure the chemical facilities in syria in case theres any suspicious movement, be it by, you know, helping, you know, by the jihadists taking over or the regime using these chemical weapons. I mean, this is a big promise as well. What preparations have been made to fulfill that promise . I really dont know. I want somebody to help us with that answer. I think there is, again, always on washington for leadership, and whether the United States want to lead or not, or the leading from behind becomes really a problem for the region and the United States. It can be dragged into the situation. I think the last meeting that took place in cairo regarding syria i think was the first meeting after the elections, the american elections, and i think it was an Interesting Development this because you had a gulf states, and with europeans and with the United States, these are starting to say, all right, think of a strategy to help the addition of syria, and if the lip service is not good enough, they need help in a substantial way. Arming is now on the table, de facto whether its pronounced or not, and its not a problem, the arabs do that. The saudis will not, the qat it ars, and nobodys talking about american troops on the ground there. This is one most Important Development and why is it your important . Because it is really now in terms of how will it be taken forward with russia and china . Will there be confrontation . The question thats going to be asked and needs to be asked is because strategy is needed is to go to the russians and say basically, now what do you want . The president is there for four more years, no more elections, what is it that you want . Deliver what the russians or not . Cold war they want or what is what consequences of that . From what i understand the foreign minister of russia was meeting with the gulf ministers, the gcc ministers, i, from what my information is he did not give in. They are standing exactly where they were. This is not the strategy is needed. It is not a strategy, and the u. S. , no matter how much we try to run away from that situation in syria and israel and iran, its, yeah, light footed or heavy footed, leadership is needed. One followup question. Do you see the current situation, you talked about the instability and opportunity as they say in america, an opportunity to change the channel. Is it likely an opportunity for assad to change the channel and get an engagement with israel and [inaudible] put aside discuss palestine, it is a unifying ground for arabs and for muslims so i dont i mean, again the danger of changing the subject away from syria is really multiple faceted, but those things would be an opportunity to strike a deal between the regime, and maybe they did all right, but its not about giving back, and we can talk about the development more later, but i think the israelis have to decide actually what is it in interest . Is it better to consider that jihadis, dangerous for them, if you will, and couple up with the regime or stay coupled up with the regime because they have been for a long time. Is that in their better interest . Is it in their interest to understand that this regime is gone, going, a selling point. Doesnt matter whether its within a month or year or two and therefore to hasten to cut short the escalation of the extremists and their empowerment, that the jihadists are weaker if its done faster. The fact they are there and strong is because theres hesitation and procrastination. L kurdistan aspect, what would you like to contribute as far as the flow . Yeah, thank you very much. Thank you for invitation. Its good to be here. I think the syria regime has been expecting such developments for quite sometime, especially after the regime change in iraq. In fact, on several occasions when iraqi formed opposition groups when they were based in syria, and governing members were on official visits on bilateral ties that they had originally with the syria and the iranians, all such visits, they were asked who is next on the list . In fact, they were pretty sure that as iran and syria, but who is first . Whether its iran or syria. That was in the early days or months of the iraqi war. However, as things started to look somewhat ugh ugly in iraq, i think they it was a sigh of relief for them, but they have been expected that knock on the door for some time. Perhaps the events in north africa has speeded up the process in a way to engulf syria that leads to promote such an ideal regime change in syria. The developments in last two years, you can say has been somewhat, one can call it the least can be a calamity with the killings of 35,000 lives lost and damages to the infrastructure, but unfortunately, the response for at least the efforts of the opposition or the support for the opposition has not been matching the change. The factors, someone pointed out, theres the settling of the russian and the iranian factors. Also the internal factors of the opposition. As it was mentioned very earlier, the first few months it was very peaceful demand of reforms, and it took months thereafter to respond by heavy military, exercises by the regime which continues to this very day. The internal opposition or the rebels or the Freedom Fighters and the wings mostly abroad, there may well be no solid interaction between the two and not a clear agenda so far. Yes, there has been meetings in turkey, in other countries, and more recently in dohair, qatar, a small gulf state wants to play it big. It was a big event for them. Whether it is inclusive in the sense that all opposition figures and key figures within an outside of within that structure, i would say its the formation of the new structure, its probably either a premature birth or a late delivery, premature in the sense it is not that inclusive. Late delivery two years of this destruction, and they have been able to come to this point which is not quite satisfactory. Unless theres International Intervention such as what you had in libya with a no fly zone and i think this status quo continues, and up fortunately unfortunately, they will continue to suffer. Officially, the leadership advised the groups to be somewhat cautious and not to spearhead any developments or changes for one reason perhaps. This could have been manipulated by the regime to confuse the kurds, and as always, a second israel, and so on and so forth so it was very, i think, wise move to be in proposition groups, but at the same time to be engaged to an extent they have been able to control certain areas which was abandoned by the security and the military apparatus, but at the same time, they took part in opposition meetings and gathering. However, they were reluck at that particular time to continue to be part of that due to the very fact that the opposition did not have a very clear agenda or strategy or road map. But some because of the demands. However, the circumstance in turkey is different to that. The area in turkey which is almost 900 kilometers, large pockets that are controlled by the kurds, turkey has expressed concern over the dominance in that area. A group called p. White the which is known or thought to be close. But apart from that there are many modern groups who are on the scene. I believe turkey can reach out to them and to operate and coordinate. Anything may happen. One hundred years ago with some major developments in the middle east after the first world war. Here we are, the very same critical point. There are changes in the region, political changes, dare i say border changes. So in any vote the in any eventuality, the key players, the key actors must be ready. Its serious business. You of the border thing for the end of the conversation. Obviously the Hearts Desire of most kurds is to be reunited. Give me a sense of how close the release sip is between northern what kind of the affirmation is flowing to the kurds in syria. Obviously Lessons Learned in what happened. Is there a mentor should going on . Is there high level constant communication or how much of the conversation is happening within the kurds across boundaries . The difference there is an affinity for our brothers. Its very natural. I think we have been very cautious not to the scene intervening directly in the affairs of our neighbors, although we have not hidden our thoughts. We would like to see the enjoy when of democrat. There has been and are still serious contacts, especially with the moderate groups, different political groups in syria, kurdish groups. They have held conferences. Not only that, but also to get them to sign a pact. Unfortunately they have not been honoring the agreement, but this contact caused 30,000 syrian nationals. Kurds have fled cereal living in iraqi kurdistan. Of me see if i can recaps we can move on to the next session. There seems to be agreement that there is a stalemate in syria right now. As you said, a little bit of disagreement on the level of maturity of the coming together of the opposition. And also some discussion about what is required for western nato american intervention. So lets move to the what ifs aspect of what were talking about no and the move to the idea of military intervention because at this point i think its pretty clear that the west, nato, United States has determined it is not a National Interest to get involved in the syrian conflict. I would like each of you to think about at what point does it become derek and their National Interest and if it does what is the most effective thing Going Forward . Syrians have begun to compare this situation to that of bosnia, the inchcommunity intervening. And i think it was more about shamed into a situation. And the population of 5 million when you had 200,000 being ethnically cleansed, that is with the International Community to put into a very difficult situation and had to intervene. You have a civilian population and you have a regime that is waging a fullscale war. Its fully armed. You have a population that is trying to defend itself with small arms and increasingly bigger arms because as the soldiers, some of the preventive some of the Free Syrian Army. And some of them actually confided in us that perhaps the dont even need to be armed. The arms supply is coming from within as people defect from the army, so that is a security threat, not just for countries, but the civilian population that is becoming increasingly caught between two sides. And now the Free Syrian Army is no longer doing the defense job because, as i said earlier, now they want to create some sort of a Strategic Plan in which they cut the supplies off the of the Regime Forces and take over areas, sometimes of the opposition of some of the local population. I had this happen to my own family, their relatives and families of many members as syrian opposition. Free Syrian Army Forces enter certain areas and declare them liberated. The Regime Forces come and show these areas. However, when you talk to the people, even if they approve of the strategies of the three syrian army, they are still more aligned with the Free Syrian Army than with for example, i heard there is looting happening in some areas. I want to ask. There were shocked that i would even ask. The three syrian army generally protect the civilian population. Trying to subjugate the civilian population. But the situation, i think, you have now serious cut of between two sides. Increasingly getting stronger. Reports yesterday. The increased amount of supplies coming from within god that is also creating a new situation. Go ahead. The what ifs an area that you suggested. A late a little bit. So what if president s Bashar Alassad which have tomorrow and besides, its a good thing for me to step down now. Thats not going to happen. Lets just put the impossible scenarios out of the question. What if the iranian government decides that, you know, syria is a logger the linchpin for me. The survival of the Syrian Regime is essential for iran. There has been a lot of focus of less than 10 working actively with the government and syria. But to iran as the state has been defying Security Council resolutions that prevented under Chapter Seven from extending military aid to syria or anywhere else for that matter. And boasting about its. My understanding is they even have pilots operating in syria. They are not hiding their absolute commitment to that. And yet no one has moved and Security Council. That the americans, not the british, not the french. So the iranian influence is huge. It is a connection with hezbollah. So that is what if iran changes its mind. And then the bigger, the neighbors. What will happen for the neighbors. Before i do the neighbors, what if russia changes its mind . Now, that is valuable. What does it take . It takes that. An opening for russia. Yes. Absolutely. Right now this is the path. Reshuffle the cards. Is there opportunity . Again, i dont think that it is okay. I know it happened. Containment. And all weight and so it takes place. What happens, the bosnian example, the afghan example. But its just not its still an opportunity for discussion amongst big powers and regional powers as to what needs to be done. That conversation must be had. And if it is, as precious as to the United States, listen, and to that disease the countrys top my option is the following. Im going to stick to demanding that it stays detrimental and most important in the transition , the political transition that theyre talking about. If theyre not going to budge, and if theyre going to say to my alliances relief with iran, that would have to change the dynamic. Because the gcc and iran are, of course i mean, there is the option of syria as the linchpin. Syria can break the backbone of iran rather than the United States to weaken iran with a military strike. President obama is not going to do anyway. In a way that becomes strike iran work through syria. And hezbollah as well, which brings me to the regional equation. Emmy, looked at what is happening and jordan today. Very, very dangerous whats going on, whats happening, the escalation. If she had watched the statement by the secretary of has the last week, you would know that escalation, the decision has been taken to escalate. The whole region is in the mode, as to its domestic emasculate. So what if things get out of control . I mean, you may tell me know. New leaders in egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood. Take there time because theyre not crash. Theyre going to enter into a war with israel. At sickened youre right. I dont think there will. But, you know, when you push too much, what happens . Lucky that there happens to be an american election. So everybody hid behind each other. The Security Council, russia and china said sen. He is banking on iran all the time. And now he is being lucky enough , change the subject. Hes been dying to do that in lebanon and everything else. Now theyre doing it for him in gaza. So hes been a lucky guy. Maker really a point. Tambov to the audience here. That is, the escalation of the escalation, escalation. Microphones. Stand up and shout it out. [inaudible question] actually, the security. Research came out last year. A single status predictor of the level of security, not its welcome mat gdp, level of democratization, at the religious affiliation. Is the way it treats its women and that even democracies that have high levels of violence against women are less stable than non democracies. So the reason i asked, time and again we cannot rely on the parties of the conflict. Womens rights, the first thing that was negotiated away, agreed upon in a confidencebuilding measures that there would not need to be included in formal negotiations. The past 30 years to my thing to present to the people resigned formal peace agreements have been women. Harken back to yesterday about the old momma and the current normal and the future normal, women are playing a significant and dramatic roles in revolutions and are excluded when it comes time to the formal process budget question is . What can we actually do at this point to signal support for women in syria and various other parts, countries that are undergoing similar situations. I know some of this relates to a longterm support, but what are the tools we have attention National Committee right now to those not to harm an influx backlash. This is something that we are actually serious about, something that we want to seek an something with our Financial Support and political leverage can actually make a difference on. Thank you. As well. Second start. I think many people are not aware of some of the internal dynamics of the syrian National Council. And to be fair, many of the men were supportive of the women. You have almost three women who made to the general security. What happened, that was was thats why there was electoral designed. The results depend on the way you decide the election. Elections were designed around reading for small, small at cs where you needed only eight voices to actually be elected to the electoral, to the general secretariat. If you get seven voices, that was not enough. What happens is that during the day i, for example, kept holding my vote because i was trying to make sure that minorities elected. Many people were just excited about the election process. As serious, there were yearning to cast their vote. And they have cast their votes in the morning and then realized, you have quite a big gap in terms of representation of minorities and women. By the afternoon not many voices left, so we were frantically trying to create a balance, and we could not really hit it. I have to admit that i have been a burst several times to move up to the general secretariat and even to the executive office. However, because i do not represent always the mainstream of where the revolution has been having to my cab declining because i wanted Syrian People to see people who are more representative of their demands in the state of the revolution command the early days i was more up front because the nonviolence, was also in the front row. It came to organizing and immobilizing. So really, i mean, its not as simple as it sounds. We increase the participation of women in the syrian National Council. In a new coalition theres an emphasis on the participation of women. Its not secular and islamic when it comes to feminist issues. There are islamist activists are more interested in minority representation and feminist issues and there are some Secular Forces that are not bothered by these issues. So i think, you know, once you get to know the people its not as clearly as it appears in the media. Its a bit more complicated. [inaudible question] once they are in power we did neutralized or marginalized and pushed out. Women have always been part of a stroke, the ones they take power its already over. And take a look at the other elements. When the Muslim Brotherhood arrows in arab countries, egypt, tunisia, morocco to my the west, some sectors of the western europe and the United States had this love fest with the Muslim Brotherhood like they of the moderates and there are you know, all of a sudden embrace them. All of a sudden the secularists are marginalized. All of us. We worked like, you did not matter. And the worst thing is that they said that, they called us the secular spirited said we were part of that regime that we were really instrumental in the revolution to bring down. So all of a sudden it was okay to compromise womens rights. Absolutely right. All of a sudden it became live service paid to women. And there was no action taken. One thing that is absolutely necessary. Guarantees that there would be no monopoly of power because thats exactly what is happening in egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood, they are really patient. They know how to do building blocks. And then as a National Security issue, women, you know, the population, the economy, its about the nationalsecurity, and i think western countries have really, you know, women, women, women. Comes right down. Its all out of the window. Definitely experiencing. A little ahead of the curve. A discernible. Just getting into it. Your attention. The lemon. The opposition. Representation in its construction and lead. If you recall, happens to be the spokeswoman of the National Council. Estes is now. Very, very, very long name, by the way. Revolutionary forces. Which means it did not survive. The name has to change. Shorten its. Because we also have a woman representative. I wanted to underline that the vice president. [inaudible] the National Syrian figures. We cannot resolve a very legitimate affirmation. In that sense, more prospects for us. All right. I would just like to move on to another question if i can. I was the ambassador to syria until about march. I arrived there in the summer of 2008. I watched things develop. A great fondness for the country, the traditions of coexistence and tolerance which have marked the country which is generally little known in the west. The recent change in the opposition presented some are virginities. I think this has been most terribly missing over the past yearandahalf. That think that there is an opportunity now to my window opporunity. I suggest that the appointment was made about the fact that this will allow stop as long as the sides are in power. There should be no illusion about that. I would say that in addition to that, the reasons there still in power across the country, support and your of the regime which keeps the Security Force and the army out of sight. The window of opportunity as see right now is for the new coalition to look at the weekend position that the government is ten and to look at what can be done to weaken the support of the Security Force for the military. They will fear the Security Force the military will fear the inevitable cycle of revenge and retribution. That should be. Just the coalition needs to do what is really hard. The lookout author. Make representation to the Security Force those that committed terrible crimes will need to be held accountable. The rankandfile soldiers, Security Council needs a new place. An opportunity. The longer this goes on the more that will diminish. I think its very important. To you believe that we should arm that group . That this group is the kind of organization that gives us more confidence that if we are made to a higher degree that it will have the desired outcome . The whole issue. I mean, it is very easy to talk about solutions drawn past examples. I hear talk about the nofly zones. The solution, the internal solution. Set the stage for peace and not make it worse. I think what this Ambassador Says assist the opposition in order to push its agenda which is for liberation, of the road to democracy. It has been viewed in a negative way, imposing ideas from the outside. I think this Syrian People should be the ones to decide what their future should look like. How you going to do it is a mechanism that is in place. Not sufficient. So would it take . There has been some examples. Hes one tries to have this conference on the rump patch. In order to address some of their own concerns. Any other country for that matter. Not so much influence. Regional or elsewhere. A clear agenda. Addressing all issues going up. Sufficient time to out some clarity on how the future of syria should look like. It should reflect the will and wisdom of the desire and the population. Sticking your lesson from libya where the opposition was a little more advanced and cohesive before the intervention . Two years ago. A still a degree going on. The Syrian Society belong to, including libyans, the free society. Culturally more advanced. I think especially with the case , the syrians have the sensitivity. About the possible action. What was your feeling in the case of the nofly zone over syria or other kinds of early intervention, how russia may react and the issue. What we find so far right now when things come to the Security Council that russia is going to budge. Even after the region, the trilateral agreement, there will move on to the United Nations next week or the week after. The idea of that would be quite basic. Start with the ceasefire. To demonstrate their regime. Is not going to implement that. This seems to me that russia is not going to allow it unless something happens between now and the time it goes to the Security Council. At the level of that larger composition. Such a conversation starts and there could be the possibility of that grand bargain. Its also needed. Becoming more and more urgent. If sir is a decision to go to the Security Council, the revolution, that is really a serious decision. The Security Council. This is where the matter. Princess to that meeting again. The other options. What does it take . Well, basically is going to take nato to say turkey, where fine. Youre going to have to do this. It has to happen outside of the Security Council. The ambassador, they have a very important role. They should have, could have, and may still be able to play in syria. The connections, the military hierarchy. They could in florence the development on that level, on the local level, if you will. If they make the deep. The regime, lebanon, iran, russia. And a lesser extent china. Dont kid yourself about that. And very determined to say this is mine. Now, maybe president obama should also look at what can the United States give to the russians in the region . Is it okay to give them i mean, it is about giveandtake. Personally i think that they wanted a foothold. Let them have it personally, but i think the composition is about something much larger. And fortunately the hate to say so bluntly bluntly. The in russia. It wants to regain its might and the superpower them at the expense of the children and the women in the fight juice, the Freedom Fighters. This is an unfortunate matter, but is the way its looking now. One more question for you. The issue in terms of the syrian crisis, a proposal. And the size of the importance of russia. The dysfunction. But it is more reluctance in terms of taking the position. You speak of an axis of russia, the regime. Yet we recall that the russians commitment and connection to serbia was much more strong in the case of kosovo and bosnia. And in bosniamo. The media case. Just seeing these difference, the context for politics. The iraqi example also for syria. But cosimo and bosnia, much more valid compared together. Yet russia brings up, the clarity, non clarity of the western world, syria, the last thing i just want to add. As yet because they pointed out for obama, his position, the light footprints approach. Kofi annan brought a great to benefit to this american approach in 1700. Now we have this mission. Faribaults doomed to failure. The remote. All right. We have run out of time. Obviously we made a crack any way in getting a better understanding of what is going on. Its only fair to say, you said yesterday, to see in paris right now. Hes basically tell his students that everything that happens of the next few months will be studied for many, many years. All the main players are facing tests right now. Civilians a dying. The power balance is shifting under our feed and no one knows where it will end up. Thank you for your time, your contribution
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