Those numbers have slunk. Even if you super perform there are more pharmaceutical Research Scientists in an arbor than machinists working for the tank plant, which actually closed. Yeah. I think we got to keep something in mind. Donald trump won the nomination. He kicked everybodys butts. These were very qualified, wellfunded people. To me that signals theres something going on out there. If he can turn it, actually, into a movement. He didnt win by hypnosis. People turned out and voted. As mike said he won all 67 counties in pennsylvania. So if he can catch some fire here where theres enough people who are frustrated, angered, we could see a turn out that is just completely different than weve seen before. There could be a closet vote for trump that is the going to show up on polls. The only way hes going to win is have a map that looks different. I personally believe without winning ohio, for sure, probably pennsylvania, and then probably florida. I think winning all of those western states is too big of a lift. And, frankly, if he is struggling with the red states like arizona and others, hes done anyhow, that means hes going to be struggling with the same type of voters in ohio and pennsylvania. I dont the problem with the primary now, i agree, he broke the mold with under 50 of the vote but in a multiwin election is every year the republican primary electorate becomes more different than the general election electorate. Its 28 million cranky old white guys like mike murphy. Not 128 people like millennials. So trump has to grow a little beyond his super power from the primary. President ial elections occurred an atmosphere, a collective mind set, sometimes. And outside events can shape what that collective mind set is and create a surprising result. Is there anything, lets say, on the issue of terrorism or security a great number of attacks or frequency. Its been a horrible month of june. Is there anything you think could affect the collective mind set of the country that is an external event e that could change the evaluations of the limitations that trump faces in this election . Ill take a quick crack. I was at a dinner i showed up late and i was next to this distinguished elder gentleman with a strange foreign accent saying what is a parisstyle attack eight days before the election in atlanta and chicago, illinois kills 100 americans. Couldnt that be the big maybe. You never know. You know, you cant predict that thing. Maybe they want steady. Maybe they want, you know, beat the hell out of them. Thats trump. But, you know, i think thats kind of a premature when i got done laughing. The guy was the head of the im not going to chicago or atlanta. You dont know. I think, you know, if you think about president ial campaigns here to now theyve been decided on attributes. Typically ultimately a person voters seem to care the most about them and people like them. But strong leader over the course of president ial Campaign History has also been a very strong its one that donald trump is winning now. You take that and you couple it with some interesting ways pollsters are now asking questions, which is, you know, in terms of these attributes, do you find in issues do you find this person, you know, acceptable, you know, is donald trump acceptable . Is Hillary Clinton acceptable . Is neither acceptable . Theres a large group of voters pushing 30 in most cases that say neither one of these candidates, you know, is qualified to serve as the president , is trust worthy on these issues. Pick it. Theres a huge block of them. A lot of them arent going to show up. But some of them are. They dont like either and think neither are qualified but theyre going to vote for somebody. The ones that show up, and in your scenario, i think they run to the strong leader. And, jon, to refine the question. You brought the Cocktail Party litmus test up. The security and concern crack through . I think it does. I think it probably favors trump in this way. I think that a lot of voters hes talking to feels like america is getting sand kicked in their face for the last eight years. I think theyre tired of it. I think they think weve lost respect. I want to go back to something mike murphy said. If there was one peter of advice or criticism i have with the Trump Campaign, im not sure they figured that out yet. Yeah, it feels like the primary is still going on in the convention now. Yeah. With all the messaging. Its worth noting in the primary trump won almost half of noncollege republicans. Even in the p lths bring in the audience for questions. Major and i will take it back for final thoughts. If you have a question, raise your hand. One in the back over here, if we can get to them. There we go. Identify yourself, please. Daniel freeman from the uk. Im from the uk. Obviously, the brexit vote threw the establishment quite dramatically. Is it a real protest that is happening in america that people are really looking at the establishment and saying they dont want the same old same old . I think were going to find that out. Certainly, the republican primary voters are spoken. Nothing that donald trump said that was offensive or outside the norm sub planted the major fact he was the only one that wasnt a politician. They wanted to throw him out. You know, interesting about brexit, i spoke to pollsters that worked on the race there who had said, you know, one of the things they found were people who hadnt voted in decades voted. So the vote wasnt part of the polling, but they looked at. Thats part of what was missed the influx of new voters. I dont know were going to see that this time. Its one thing that is out there as a factor. I have one point. One key difference is the electorate in britain was 90 white. If you look at the share of white voters in britain, that voted to leave, according to the lord ashcrofts polling. It was 53 . 53 responded to the message. If donald trump wins 53 of whites in the u. S. Hell lose by a landslide. If you look at the maps of who voted to remain from london going down, i guess, to the south. Kind of a white collar that is exactly thats northern virginia, the suburbs of denver, the suburbs of philadelphia. Thats the challenge. I think its the same challenge. Probably the same coalitions, just they exist in different proportions in the u. S. Than in the uk, which is, you know, a much more yeah. Were more structurally locked in vote. Theres the same hunger to punish the establishment. Its what we call a wrong track election. People want new. Thats why you hear the Trump Campaign finely and inappropriately talk about change. Its not as clean. We dont have to deal with the french on a daily basis. There you go. [ inaudible question ] weve heard it from a few strategists talking about the videos played. Some folks said there hasnt been the traditional bio videos that get the crowd pumped up and folks at home get to see. We saw a few of those last night. I was wondering for you can weigh in. Its supposed to be ma madefortelevision convention. Are you surprised there hasnt been better videos seen at the convention . I dont think the infrastructure exists dont thi infrastructure exists in this operation to think about those that takes a long time to put Something Like that together. And it requires usually a team of very talented people. Theyre theyre still theyre catching their breath every single day. Theyre still sprinting from the primary. I think that was not intentional, its just they never got around to it, i suspect. Youll see a lot of that at the democratic convention. Theyre going to have the most beautiful produced tenminute in infomercial on Hillary Clintons life. In a national, a general election campaign, it is an e mo enormous business. Your job is just run that phone bank. Dont worry about anything else. Right now, theyre spread too thin. Id even say this. Ive done a lot of those videos and i thought sometimes they were brilliant and they meant nothing. Theres only a few events thats a pretty big statement from an ad guy. I think your videos are great. Nobodys talking about those the next morning and thats what this all comes down to. Let me echo that as another ad guy, i agree. There was an opportunity to do more digital streaming. I would have had a gopro came backstage. What could go wrong . There could have been more were in a culturture now of unfiltered reality media. I think they could have fed that more. My guess is the dems will and be good at it. David paul, huffington post. I was curious watching the trump boys speeches. The second one was the speech that actually reflected what his father said. If given by his father as his acceptance speech i think would take him a long way towards changing the shift of people who might consider voting for him. Theres an odd aspect reflected in the notion that if theres a terrorist attack, people flock to strength. He has said so many things from paying down the National Debt in eight years to rebuilding the space program, to Everything Else thats come along the way, the best schools, the best infrastructure and all of this, yet there is never a question of how is this more than just words. Because Bernie Sanders proposes a 57 billion entitlement and everybody wants to know how hes going to pay for it. The total cost of what trump has proposed is probably in the range of 40 trillion. Are at least kind of questions he might face in the debate . I think so. People flock to strength, but they also run from fear as Barry Goldwater would tell you. The Clinton Campaign will spend lot of time turning trumps strength into risk. Whether they succeed or not will be a huge driver. Those questions are out there, theyre real. Voters sometimes we dont give voters enough credit. Voters are pretty smart and Pay Attention to this. Theres just so many other questions. One thing about trump, he throws a lot of chum in the water. Reporters probably writing his speechers, then it changes foyer or five times throughout. I think theres so much out there and i think thats intentional by them as well. Lets do one more and take it back for final question each. My names colin. Im a student at the university of akron. I want to hit the fast forward button real quick and move to 2020. Ted cruz. Why not . Say hillary wins with 95 of the africanamerican vote and over 75 of the hispanic vote, what does the gop do to kind of recognize these trends and adapt their platform and their kind of game plan moving forward . What can they do . In my opinion, its up to our elected leaders. You cant fix these during campaigns. You fix this when governors and senators and mayors go into africanamerican communities, go into hispanic communities and see if they can get 15 of the vote next time. People dont vote for the party, they vote for individuals. Until we have individuals that try to win in those areas, we will lose nationally. And the primary system, by the way, as mike said before, caters to a different group. We have to have people who can come through the primary system and have done it. But it has to be individuals. Our incentives in the party are to do the exact wrong thing in demography. Because its very hard to get a party to act in a longterm right interest when the shortterm incentives are to do the opposite. Im for super delegates. I want less primaries, more smart people picking the damn nominees so we win. And then for super delegates, i think we could very well had the ultimate Political Science experiment this year. Bernie sanders versus donald trump. And second, i fear that when it came down to just cruz, and im not a cruz fan. I was for cruz. I wanted to have the cruz science experiment as nominee rather than trump. Now what we could very well have is we can argue the trump case, if we lose, we might wind up, though im less certain of this arguing the cruz argument again. In closed primaries in 2020. Parties tend to close in which is exactly the opposite. You want to know about a party, look at the organic media that the primary voters gravitate to. With the democrats its inner web. With us, its am radio which isnt going to be around in five years. Weve got to break that cycle. That sets up the final question i wanted to ask which is, you know, you talked about the possibility that trump he could get a surge of new voters. He could max out on white voters. Given the underlying demography in the party, is his path a long term one and is it a greater risk if he loses or if he wins and tries to implement the agenda that he ran on. What would you worry about more for the long term and the future of the party . Its a great question. I think its one many republicans are struggling with. On the one hand, he is our nominee and we dont want Hillary Clinton. If you believe its a binary choice, that means you need to support donald trump. On the other hand, as you point out, whats worse . Do you go in for the minor medical procedure right now and suffer a week of discomfort or do you let the cancer grow for 25 years. I think that is the choice most republicans face. Unless he dramatically changes the trajectory of his commentary and the way hes run his campaign. My bigger fear is the brand of the Republican Party is that we follow the same model we used to. We assume 18 to 21yearolds pretty much arent going to show up and vote. All that is changed because of the way news is distributed. By the time theyre 16, theyre actually relatively political li lisavy. By the time theyre 18, their brand is set of who we are, who we arent. If were going to grow as a party, we better start thinking about how were going to talk to younger voters. We take terrible lessons from off year elections. Look at wisconsin, we got a senator, a governor, both houses of legislature, and then thats not going to happen in the general election in a president ial year. We take bad lessons from those and pat ourselves on the back too much for those. We have to change as a party longterm. The rnc chairman has said this party is well organized to win off year elections, poorly organized to win elections. Its up to Republican Leaders to deal with the smoldering ruins, how many will be left. I think were i think theres a really good chance of losing the senate no matter who the nominee was. We won this senate in 2010 essentially. Those are difficult at best no matter who the republican nominee is at president ial year. Well have a lot of governors left. It will be okay. We have to look forward to the next generation. Im for trump i think trumps going to lose and im okay with that. Smoldering ruins, then we build a new competitive republican modern party that weve needed for a decade. How many are left to do that . The best thing and the worst thing that happened to the toyota motor factories was world war ii. That may be where we are. To your down ballot question, i agree. One thing thats kind of interesting. We got vulnerable guys in democratic seats in the president ial year. That is as bad as it can get. But trump is such an outlier. Theyve got a little more moving room. Im involved in an ie in illinois where mark kirks got a very tough race. Hes doing okay right now. Portman here in ohio. Theyre all tough races. If you look at history, theyre supposed to lose, but theyre showing a little more life. The fact that theyre allowed to be distant from trump i said reasons take bad lessons from off year elections. Democrats take bad lessons from on year elections. Probably 30 republican governors. The party will be pretty healthy. To your question, it only takes one really good nominee to start on that rebuilding process. Thats right. And so the biggest challenge for the republicans is that we havent had a weve not had a leader of our party for eight years. Thats right. And when we have a nominee that which we do today, albeit very different one, eight years from now, four years from now, we will have a very different nominee. Particularly younger, dynamic, more modern, as mike says. We will turn the corner. And trump will fade fast. You could say american politics can be described in two sentences. Democrats cannot win enough white voters to consistently win the house. And republicans cannot win enough nonwhite voters to win the white house. We could keep going all day. I think we got to let these terrific strategists and minds get on with their day. Thank you for joining us this morning. Just one programming note, we have more for you today. Well have a wonderful conversation at 12 30 this afternoon, women in politics and what can be done to make a career in Public Office more appealing and attainable for young women. If you can, come back, and thank you for joining us this morning. [ applause ]
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