In 1979 cspan was created as a Public Service by americas Cable Television companies. This is brought to you today by your cable or satellite provider. [inaudible conversations] good afternoon and welcome to the washington institute. Im rob the executive director and im delighted to welcome all of you to this very special event. Before i begin if i can please ask everyone to take your iphone or samsung or whatever and turn them on a silent because we are broadcasting live on cspan one. Please watch your language, speak in clear tones so people around the world can hear us today. You are free to tweet as much as you like because we are eager to get the message of todays discussion out far and wide. It is not often that one can time the publication of eight new book so proficiently to an International Event or its not one often one can arrange an International Referendum to be timed perfectly with the publication of a new book. As it turns out, we have today, this confluence of events. We have the referendum in turkey that although, the result in the process is provocative and remain controversial and subject to great debate. Well hear more about that. Right away we know turkey is a country in crisis as the title the subtitle with Outstanding New work suggests and the subject of todays discussion is what type of crisis, how lasting a crisis, a crisis at home, a crisis abroad or a crisis Getting Better for all the controversy that there may be clarity about the direction of turkish leadership and to talk about these questions, first, im going to be quite delighted to welcome to the podium the author of the new sulton and then we have an outstanding array of turkish expertise and remarkable array of tur i expertises within these four walls. After i turn to soner im delighted to welcome to the podium gonul tol and adjunct profess o at George Washington university to the middle east, that is here in washington and then we will turn to amberin zaman, middle eastern program, veteran journalists, 15 years of turkish correspondent for economist, really delighted to have this panel which brings such indepth knowledge of the current political situation and the likely direction of politics of turkey and special interests. This audience, of course, the direction of the u. S. Turkish relationship in this new area. We have already seen the first sign of the direction, of course, with President Trumps outreach to new dually reempowered erdegon just yesterday. I will call to the podium soner. Soner has been with the institute for many years, author of several books on turkish domestic and foreign politics. Theres a generation of American Foreign officers who have gone on abroad in turkey who have passed through as instructor. Americas representatives had the benefit of inside and wisdom , not just opine in book opeds but improve the quality of american policy by such thicks as teaching american diplomats. Thank you, rob, and im so pleased to see so many of my friends and colleagues from around town. Its a great day for me. I really appreciate that you all are here. I also want to think amerin and gonul. Gonul had excellent oped. Im very pleased that both are with me in this panel today. I also we wanted to start, of course, by thanking president redogan, i couldnt have done it without him. Literally and figuratively. I decide today write this book last year in june and the idea that was i would write it over a year and edited sometime this spring and published in the next summer. Then my editors reached out to me and they asked me to pull up the deadline. I agreed, so i wrote it between coming back from the beach in august and christmas in december, about four months and then it was edited, copyedited and there you go, in my hands, the new sultan. Im very proud of the book, of course, i really do want to thank a number of people to who i owe gratitude for getting this work together. First of all, my boss rob. Thank you, rob. [laughter] the institute of my colleagues, this is a great place to work, one to have best places to work and best intellectual incubator. I feel lucky to be sounded by many smart people and colleagues as well as research assistance. I have been blessed in the last decade and a half by very Impressive Group of interns and research assistants. Some are in this room. You guys are both in the book, thank you. Of course, the biggest thanks goes to hoya sitting up in the front. Sorry to embarrass you. You deserve a round of applause. Thank you. [applause] hoya was with me every stage. I hope that i did not write her crazy. Thanks for baring with me. I would tell her a sentence and she would finished it and i would say have you looked at the typo and said, yes, i fixed it, thank you, i wouldnt have done this without you. I have dedicated this book to the love and memory of my mother. I was working into a workingclass in turkey and went to yale for ph. D. This goes to my moms memory. But i want to turn to my book now, why i wrote it and what its really about and i will go to my colleagues and we will have hopefully a good discussion on that. A student for nearly two decades, ive written on it in the last 15 years ive been at the institute analyzing and writing about turkey. For those of you who follow my work, you will find traces of our discussions in this book and in many ways, the new sultan follows my previous book as rob has mentioned the rise of turkey. This in this book i looked at turkeys economy growth and erdegan and after turkey witnessed Economic Growth in the last decade and after having been transformed economically and his task was to transform turkey politically. I believe this, erdogan wants to make turkey a great power. The path is to becoming an advanced economy and erdogan made an economy turkey has to become hot for google and to pass to that to become open society and the liberal democracies. I argued argued in my book the rise of turkey that the homework was therefore to get to that advanced society, economy and open society, liberal and democratic order, one that would provide freedom for two halfs of turkey which im going to dismiss in the minute which is freedom of religion for the religious half and freedom from religious for the secular half. Roughly defined and this new constitution would have to provide for broad liberties, for all citizens, including the kurds, secular religious tensions and the burden off the turkish problem, avoid the traffic of middleincome economy. I dont think erdogan read my book. Happy to look at it in the q a and i argue in the cannings that erdogan has become unassailable. Half of turkey loves him and half of turkey loathes him. Erdogan wants to shape turkey in his own image. I suggest that hes following what i call in quotes that is editor model. What is the ataturk model. Education policy as a secular western european society. And erdogan wants to use the ataturk model, he wants to both emulate and replace ataturk, it would become in erdogans vision, religious and middle eastern and conservative. But erdogan is a problem, atuturk was a military general and erdogan had a mandate, he had one until sunday, theres widespread consensus that election process was not fair and theres emerging consensus that there was we are irregularities. The vote does not alleviate it and exacerbates and its split in the middle with proand anticamps. Turkey as you know, many experts on turkey in this room. I see some of my friends and former students. We have discontinued this many times. Its a very complicated country. Political ethic religious and social groups and erdogan is going to impose vision on entire country and society and we show this in sundays referendum. Near majority in not a majority voted against it. There you go. You can see on the map, overwhelming number of turkish provinces and northwest representing an overwhelming percentage of turkeys gdp voting against him. Istanbul is his home city. He started political career which i track in my book in 1994, that was his state, thats where he provided good governance, cleaned up the city. Its why the turks decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. We lost support of some of the key cities of the country but more importantly, as well as losing in the kurdish areas he lost i istanbul. Its going to be impossible for him to impose vision on the entire society Going Forward. I argue in the book that turkey is simply too large demographically, too big economically and too complicated politically for one person to control it in its entirety. Despite erdogans off to provide crony class of capitalism, turkeys fortune 500 which controls a large part of countrys economic wealth, foo liberal democratic, secular and democratic values. Its hard for him to move forward. Let me look at two ject oirs which i highlight in my book. I see three traject others and i will conclude which deserves some discussion as well. The first trajectory is the current state of affairs. Believe turkey is heaven and the other half a loose coalition, leftists, social democrats, liberal muslims who believe turkey is hell. So long as turkey is genuinely democratic erdogan cannot continue to govern the way he wants. Third is an extension of the second. Societal polarization coupled with attacks from the right, far right by isis from the far left with ppk. Thats a scenario i would have to be able to hash out for you in the q a, of course, and look at erdogan policy challenges. Russia is the nemesis that keeps coming. They are making up, they are deploying troops and setting up a base, enclave controlled by ipg which erdogan is fighting. U. S. Policy also works with ypg but only where theres isis. Its surrounded by assad regime, turkeybacked rebels and turkey. Guess who russia is there to hurt, its obviously not the assad regime but turkey allies. Its going to be the nemesis as well as most feared enemy. Does this mean that hes coming to the western world, hes not. Both the western European Union became a punching bag in the runup to the referendum. I think this is going to continue. Its a lot to do with erdogans next steps. He also wants to obviously elections coming up. He has to win those elections but for the parliament, his party, Something Interesting happened in the last question, so some of the voters of the National Action party, which is a smaller fraction of the parliament, polls 10 , voted for erdogan and some voted against him in the referendum. One of four parties in the parliament. Its splitting. The split is happening where essentially North Eastern with mhp are flipping for erdogan and in the coastal provinces and large cities are flipping against erdogan. Thats music to erdogans ears. This is ultra naturalist party. It also suggests that not only strengths akp in case of new elections, parliament elections, will fail high 10 electoral threshold. When that happens, akp has super majority in the parliament with as little 45 or perhaps even under and thats erdogans goals Going Forward. I anticipate major problems in ties with europe. He suggested that he might want to bring back Capital Punishment that would end turkey being kicked out of council of europe. Turkish courts will not be recognizing as the highest court of the country and turkish citizens will not have access to that. He control it is courts. I also anticipate a hard nationalist Foreign Policy line towards u. S. Cooperation with ypg because thats in line with his hardline policy on the kurds in general to flirt to make sure that mhp voters who flipped for him become permanent kkp voters. I have provided you with so much doom and bloom. Ive given you three in my book. I dont want to tell you all about it because i want you to buy it. The third trajectory excludes erdogan. He has made turkey wealthy. Middleclass society. Thats where he deserves credit. Citizens live better off than they did before. The fact from my previous book that i like most, rise of turkey, when erdogan came to power, infant was comparable to prewar syria and now comparable to spain. They live like the spanish and thats why they are voting for erdogan. The growth has built a middleclass base and making middleclass demands. Its the wealthier provinces that have voted against him in the referendum. So thats a good sign Going Forward. I dont want to get carried away for the case for liberal turkey, number one the opposition thats against erdogan is extremely divided and very divided. It includes turkish and kurdish nanl nationalists, center right and center left. Sometimes the wider gap between them is as wide as the gap between them and erdogan. We will go back the leadership issue. Conservative islamist turks have their own ataturk. I think until the day that such men or women emerges who can make case for liberal turkey, liberal turkey that would have a constitution that proprovide freedom of religion and freedom from religion simultaneous that would provide broad liberties for all including cultural liberties including including the kurds, until that moment comes i remain worried about turkeys future. It is plausible, given the Economic Transformation that turkey has gone under erdogan. Perhaps thanks to him that i will write my next book as well. Watch this space. Thank you everybody for coming. I appreciate it. [applause] good afternoon, everyone. First, of course, soner, congratulations. I think hes one of the most productive experts of turkey and he makes us look lazy and my boss loves you. Aside from that i really enjoyed reading your book. But, of course, when i picked up the book, the first thing came to my mind was which sultan, so i think at this point, after referendum manual, who was a reformer, but what about saltan who was a totalitarian ruler . I think the book does a great job of opening a window into erdogan psyche and through telling personal narratives and this is a narrative of victimhood which resinates very well among constituency and actually beyond. Its showing us the interaction between the founding ideology and the reactions to it. Thats why i particular enjoyed reading the chapters on kurdish nationalism and islamism, both reactions to the ideology. I think turkey right now lives in a post capitalist and post islamist era. And one would expect to embrace liberal values because islamism are radical toll totalitarian ideologies and the opposite is actually happening. Soner mentioned in the book, theres now a growing middle class in turkey. And they are demanding middle class values. So this is striking because at a time when theres going middle class in turkey, theres no middleclass values. Instead theres a growing authoritarianism and i think its because something inherent ly authoritarian culture and some might blame me for being an essentialist but i believe that that is really that lies at the heart of the issue here. I think the original sin of turkeys culture is the loss the state is ideology. The state occupies a very unique place in the turkey psyche. Everything has been done through state and even created by the state itself. Thats why we have a middle class, thats why we have a Business Class thats not really standing against erdogans policies and instead many are aligning with the government. So that bourgeoisie from the 19th century and rebuilding by the state itself, i think that was problematic and again, that explains the state of turkish democracy at the moment and the people who are supporting erdogan. Going back to islam versus secular debate, i think the people who voted on sunday in favor of the referendum, the 50 , they were not voting more islamism and those who were opposed to it, they were not obviously entirely camelist either. The 50 that voted yes on sunday, they just do not mind authoritarianism. Of course, this is a very dark picture so where do we go from here . And im a bit optimistic about sundays results because i think the raiserthin majority gives me hope and at the end electoral politics will play a role but i think more than that, of course, we dont know what erdogans strategy will be moving forward but i believe despite his victory, he has lost ground, he has lost ground within his own constituency. He lost all major cities including istanbul which is a very important place, he launched political career in istanbul and he hasnt lost since 1990s. The fact that he lost istanbul is very telling and some of his base specially the educated urban base, i dont think they are 100 happy with his authoritarian tendency n. The runup to the referendum he played to the nationalist, his main party was galvanizing the nationalist vote. And yet, i think that strategy didnt pay off, he could not be able to mobilize the National Space as much as he wanted to. And instead he increased his votes in the kurdish region compared to november elections which is surprising, of course, right now its very fluid, its very difficult to be sure about the numbers, but what we are hearing from specially from local journalists is that hundreds of thousands of people, the ruling party, the atp increased its votes by around 400,000 which is almost 1 and he i think erdogan did a lot of that and his speech, the referendum, he said that he increased our votes in the kurdish region. So if he really wants to return the favor, i think thats good news so instead of aligning with the nationalists this time he might want to recalibrate his strategy and maybe work with the kurds and that could mean and i know my friend and my colleagues disagrees with me, but he might go back to the negotiations, resume peace talks with the kurds. Of course, if he choose to play to the instead of aligning with the nationalists working with the kurds, so thats good news, that will be good news not only domestically but also turkish economy has been hit hard by terrorist attacks, so that would be good news for economy as well because i think the economy downturn is going to impact his popularity as well. So so and also that would make some room to maneuver for syria and also remove some of the tension from turkeyu. S. Relations as well. So i would like to be optimistic, but but on the other hand, i think this is knowing that hes a pragmatic leader gives me hope, but yesterday i was there was a panel, one of my colleagues mentioned that hes always been a pragmatic, we wont always known him as a pragmatic leader bus hes been in power for so long that hes become the state himself and that was the point that i was trying to make, the ideologies captured him now so now hes not that pragmatic leader that that we always thought he was and instead hes going to be more ideological so hes going to have those ideological reflexes which might prevent him working with the kurdish nationalists. So its difficult to make predictions when it comes to turkey. Might be a little bit easier now that we have officially we have a president ial system and it takes authoritarian country and when it comes to erdogan, its very difficult to to say what his next move is going to be but thats 1 that same margin gives me hope and i would like to end there. Thank you. Thank you. [applause] i think im too short for the podium. Trust me, youre not. Okay, if you say so. Thank you very much for hosting me here and i would like to return the complement and so now i have been following for 20 years too, so [laughter] she was ten years old. [laughter] and so here is what i would like to say about your book, if i were a journalists and my editor told me to go and cover that referendum and i never set foot in turkey before, i didnt know what was going on, this would be a godsend, this is really great. It brings you up to speed and its tightly written and hits all the main points, its really, really a fantastic book, very timely obviously and raises some of the most Critical Issues in turkey today and above all, the whole issue of polarization which, of course, is a huge challenge for Turkish Society. Being the last to speak, obviously everything that needed to be said has been said already but i would just like to add a few of my thoughts and in terms of yesterdays results, i think that it was you know, in turkish yes, this is have it. That was probably the least bad result we could have had in some respect, given that we all assumed that erdogan would win this referendum. So the majority he has is not really much of a majority, its razerthin as my colleagues pointed out, huge popular mandate that he was was handed by the adoring turkish people. He did win and now he has this baby in his lap, so where would things go from here . First of all, this doesnt kick in until november 3rd, 2019 technically, between now and then what will happen, im sure is weighing heavily on his mind as my colleague said, he lost istanbul which suggests that his Grassroots Organization were not really working very hard and i think that as soon as he gets invite today lead the party again which is one of the provisions of the new system that kicks in immediately as soon as the results are made official, he will set about, i think, a huge sort of shakeup within his own party and in doing so probably generating a fresh batch of disgruntles, you know, adding to this pile that already exists, so thats not going to, i think, work that well for him necessarily, depending on where those disgruntles are channeled, where they can assembled, coalesce around a leader. Mhp, its too early to say yet. I think its probably too wildly optimistic to expect all of the forces aligned against him to unit because we are looking at election who goes berserk when she sees the kurdish flag raised. So its very difficult. Here is the thing, for the First Time Since the 1980 coup i think the legitimacy of turkish democracy globally hasnt been questioned in this way. I think thats a big change. It ought to worry, president erdogan. You know, the way this referendum is being framed in the International Press is all about fraud, about irregularities, i think osc report and god knows i follow a lot of osc press conferences when i was living in armenia and those elections were really bad and what they said yesterday i was really taken aback. I had never heard them this har b before. Image that president erdogan is feeling grateful to President Trump. Im pulzled why President Trump would give him that how desperate he was for stamp of legitimacy and you would have thought the United States would have leveraged that. What happens next . Because its so thin this majority, we cant really talk about a stable situation. My colleagues described why. This in turn that erdogan will continue to instrumentallize and also means that in order to deflect attention away from all of these questions marks, why he lost istanbul, et cetera, he may embark on some crazy adventures, he may decide that its time to attack Northern Syria or maybe dive into in iraqi kurdistan. We simply dont know. I think that the good news is really that, you know, despite all of the adversity, with all of my colleagues, the most articulate journalists who could have, you know, put forward the case, the most effective gains referendum in jail, thousands of kurdish politicians in jail, the fact that the government hogged all the airwaives, the fact that we should have and shows that turkish started maturing. In the old days, people would say, the army will come to the rescue. It falls upon individual turk to sort of fight the fight and i think thats very good news. And i think this is by no means over, turkish democracy remains very much a working progress. I think to some extent the arab spring was triggered by turkey, by erdogan challenging the establishment, the army but then came circle and now hes more like them but then you had this result, with people, you know, pushing back, i think, people will continue to watch turkey. Im proud of my country and im proud of soner for this book. Thank you so much. [applause] excellent, well, thank you very much. Three fascinating and insightful presentations which gives us a lot to talk about now. If i can just pick up really with with that interesting intriguing comment that you made and ask you about the direction of u. S. Turkish relations. Now, that we do have outreach from President Trump to President Trump erdogan, do you expect turkey to be a deeper and more complete partner with the United States in what what the white house is trying to do in syria and iraq or do you expect more maverick approach from erdogan as we go ahead. I think the maverick here might be President Trump. Im under the impression that he might not have been might not have consulted the state department or embassador before he decided to make that phone call. I think that President Trump seems to sort of act on impulse and perhaps thats what just happened. I dont know. But the case remains that for as long as the United States top priority is to defeat isis in syria, particularly, tensions will remain because the premier partner of choice remain it is ypg and already yesterday we heard before the bone call president erdogan railing against, you know, countries that work with terrorists. So i think that will remain a point of friction. I think the whole i think its something that we need to watch. I find it very interesting that former major giuliani is now in the mix on turkeys behalf so he may dispute the word, lobbying. Yo give two senses about what this is . The case has to do with this very turkish iranian gold trader who was basically busting u. S. Sanctions on iran by sort of, you know, buying gold with bhir iranian money and then sending the money back, i think roughly thats how it work today iran and he got busted and hes sitting in a jail in new york somewhere, right. President erdogan has raised the case several times with president obama. We heard hes done so with President Trump. We heard he did so with secretary tillerson, why, youd have to ask him, but, of course, lets remember that this gentleman was implicated in this huge Corruption Case that erupted in november 20 december 2013 and the president and his family were linked some of the allegations of corruption, but these were all quashed in turkish courts. Thank you. U. S. Turkish relations and the new era. I think two bonds of contention. First, one is the u. S. Connection and the second is the extradition. So when trump was elected, turkey was the turkish progovernment media was quite happy thinking that now this would be a reset in turkey because under the Obama Administration, obama want today work with the pyp and they were not intervene and they were hopeful that things would be different and thats what lies at the heart of what turkeyu. S. Relations might be moving forward. The first question is whats going to happen to u. S. Corporation and how will that affect u. S. Relations, i think it depends on how turkey decides to deal with the kurdish question. If erdogan decides to move forward with the Peace Process, i think he might pursue a more pragmatic approach in syria and that could certainly help turkeyu. S. Relations. But the extradition, its extremely difficult. Turkey has been trying to make this case, linked personally on july 15th and sending boxes of documents and yet first its a legal process, so the u. S. Court has to decide and that will take years. So i think it will remain a problem in turkeyu. S. Relations. Okay. Thank you. Soner. Of course, im surrounded by two of the smartest people in town so i dont have much to add but before i do that, i realize that we have a dedicated my book and to my mother, i think i may have been overly emotional because i was scan to go see to whom i owe gratitude, i had the privilege to working with an Amazing Research assistance and others in the room who would help me with the book. I have stayed in touch with all of them. I bring them fruits and yogurt in the morning so when i need a favor, ci go ahead and ask them. Tyler helped me write my previous book as well as drafting some of the chapters for this so grateful. Im also grateful to two other people in the room. Those of you know i like more than writing is teaching. Over the years i acquired a large number of students, fsi and other places and two of my former students, great friends are in the room, they both reviewed the book, thank you, i appreciate it. And my thanks go to a whole bunch of other people that are all in acknowledgments and im grateful to all of you. This is a sub subpoena subset of domestic political agenda. We talk about polarization. I was not able to go into the depths of it, why thats linked to Foreign Policy. Hes gone after various groups, demonizing them, brutalizing them, cracking down and shutting them up in the media and started in the last decade. He add today that list leftists and liberals during the park rallies of 2013 and the kurds were at it to the list and it went on and on, so if you add these groups, demonized by erdogan physically brutalized by the police, locked up in jail, cracked down on the media, they make up now half of turkey. Thats what we saw on sunday. So you cannot continue to demonize further groups and flip unless he wants majority country against him. Policy of going out internal enemies has ran its course. He needs a policy of external enemies and this is where i agree with amberin. Theres some benefit of getting nationalists specially mac voters to support his party and i think we are going to see the same regarding the kurdish issue, u. S. Corporation with ypgu and the kurdish Peace Process as well. I think hes going to be unfriendly in all three accounts which will hurt relationship with the United States. At this stage its almost a given that russia will take raqqah and things might change. If turkey delivers to the table, magically, 12 welltrained reliable troops that can take raqqah, i think washington would love to do raqqah with turkey and if thats not happening within the next year, its going to be increasing and u. S. And turkey on a coalition course. Turkey has had this is not something i foresaw that erdogan democratic mandate would one day be questioned. He has won the election free and fair until this time. So the issue was not that i ever questioned that but i think something that came out with the book is that the elections that took place on sunday were not only not fair but signs of irwe wewe irregularities. Turkey has had free and Fair Elections longer than has had spain. Turkey started this in 1950, first time that it would have happened. So i hope that u. S. Policy puts turkey on the mark for that Going Forward. Turkey is not a country thats used to having unFair Elections and give our seal of approval to yet one unFair Election. The elections go unfair and unfree, they dont go back free and unfair. I have not seen if you know cases where elections become unfair and unfree, i think this is a crucial time in that sense also. Very good. Thank you very much. Let me turn to all of the turkish wisdom in the room and those who lack turkish wisdom can help get some from the panel. Questions from the audience . Yes, here, if you could wait, please identify yourself to our microphone. Thank you very much. My name is albert, i just have a small question. I noticed on the map that the voter the total numbers of votes is fewer than 24 million but turkeys population 70 million, that suggests low Voter Participation rate. I think its a mistake. Thats an error. Its agencys website, it must be their error. Turkeys population is 80 million people. Turkey has 68 million registered voters, 50 million of them voted, 1 million could want ballots that were not validated so 48 million and a half ballot that is are valid and counted. Thank you. Erdogan got about 1. 7 million more ballots than the opposing side. The opposition is calling into question 37 of the ballots to be recounted. Erdogan said, game over, i become president , thank you very much. On the far right. Speaking about Foreign Policy, how do you see relationship between the Supreme Leader in ankar and the Supreme Court in tehran. Theres some emerging rivalry and competition, it seems to me, thank you. Well, theres always been competition for centuries between turkey and iran and they manage to compromise relationship, i think, and i mean, they were on the opposing fronts in syria and they kept signing trade deals and work together, so theyve been pursuing a very pragmatic approach and i dont expect that to change because turkey needs iran, its dependent on the iranian energy, so i dont think no matter how the disagreements in syria will prevail but i dont think it will come to a breaking point in turkeyiranian relations. Though that said and agree completely with ganu, turkey has been very effective, the right complex one, but increasingly you hear a much more sunni tone in erdogans rhetoric which is causing quite a bit of annoyance, shall i say in tehran which has been expressed and i think i lot will be determined what the Trump Administration takes on iran, whether it decides to be much more aggressive than the Obama Administration and turkey perceives that as a way of redefining, resetting itself relationship with the United States by fighting with it. Let me ask about the Supreme Leader in jerusalem. Theres been this pragmatic trade relationship that has been sustained even while the politics has been rather sour between ancor and jerusalem, how do you think this relationship will be in the new era . The economic part of it is going to grow. Thats driven by necessity, turkey is a growing economy, if all the g20 economies with the exception of north korea has no natural oil and dependent on energy imports. Everywhere the russians are undermining them. Iranians are not very happy extremely unhappy with turkish policy in syria. Theres some analysts who are suggesting iranian pkk access and singar and what have you. Thats definitely a warning sign for erdogan Going Forward but what that means with iran about the rivalry with iran, means he doesnt want to buy as much gas and oil from them Going Forward as he wants to buy less russian gas and oil forward. Guess what, hes going to buy kurdish oil from kurdistan and israelis have an interest, they have a lot of gas to sell. Turkey is the most closest, large market that can absorb israeli gas and has the money to pay for it and political will to do such a deal. Politically, of course, their relationship is going to be on their mind by continued turkish link with hamas and to theyre able to tolerate strong economic relationship from which they also benefit. Okay, very good. Thank you. Yes, please. In the center. Yeah. You seemed to be can you identify yourself . Sure, amanda. You seem to be in descending orders of optimism, soner, the best of a bad scenario and amerin sounding pessimistic. For all three of you, specially the first two of you, im curious as you see the basis of optimism given that youve got consolidated power now in the presidency, you have a fractured and weab opposition, you have a significant crackdown on journalists and civil society, what are going to be the remaining levers within the country that are going to enable people to continue to fight back against some of these authoritarian moves . Electoral politics. What we saw on sunday the results, the institutional changes will not kick until 2019 and there are elections, increasingly unfair, but theres still elections and elections still do matter so i think thats why we have seen, i dont know if you were following twitter on the day of the referendum but i remember seeing the pictures of erdogan and close advisers looking quite sad. So i think they have taken note of how much ground erdogan and the kp has lost and stronghold like istanbul. I think this will require a ce recalibration. We have been saying this. Economies grow. [inaudible] the most important reason why for the support that hes been receiving and in the absence of that, that coalition, loose coalition that he has, so he has to make sure that he carries out structure reforms. He has to make sure that you dont have bombs exploiting in major cities. So thats why i think he has to change course and we have seen that before because hes very pragmatic. So my short answer is electoral politics is the reason why im slightly optimistic than the rest of the panel. [laughter] so in order of optimism and height, moving forward. I had decided not to give you more snippets from my book but i will give you one more. In a society which is completely literate, 80 urban, largely middleclass, it will be hard for this guy to shake the whole country in his own image. Its not sustainable. He could try but it will work. Half of the country will not fall under him, hopefully it will be democratic and it is democratic that theyll oppose him. That will balance it out. My sense of optimism is despite the fact that he controls a large part of the media that theres complete media blackout on options in the referendum, resources devoted to the proletarian campaign far outweighed the resources for the other option. He only got to 51 . Despite all that, if that. Maybe not even that. That kind of tells me that you have to have faith in turkey. Its a great country. You have millions and millions despite the information in their access to equal campaigning was limited, still came out boaters in large numbers. Of course, that was a ground for autism. Im betting on turkeys diversity, the fact that its economically too big, demographically too large and politically to compensated for one person to keep it in their own image. As time passed. Id like to think that he is emulating to repeat ataturks legacy but its not sustainable and i have a lot of faith in the electoral politics going portrait the question is whether we have a centerright option that comes out to challenge him. You know turkey is a rightwing country and in the electionyear 60 of the vote up to two thirds , up to one third of the votes. Its hard for me to single see a single Party Getting him out. It will have to come to the challenge will be for the centerright and in this regard will have to see what mhp, National Inspection that we talked about earlier that is splitting. The mhps voter based is basically two parts of two turkey, northeastern turkey which is conservative and rural and one is coastal in urban, northeast and central turkey the parties electorate or for the most part folded under erdogan. Its boaters in the trends voted against him. Where will he go next . Thats important could this be the center of turkeys right movement . The right leadership take over the power and repeat itself even though its led by erdogan who comes from an islamic pedigree. It is not an islamic party. It is many centerright figures, its voters are overly conservative and centerright. The option were trying to figure out is will they bring together and challenge erdogan. Thats my fourth look for turkey would like to comment . In front. Thank you. Im a consultant. [inaudible] will buy the book differently and read it. He robbed me of my main question which i was going to ask about so i left my backup question. That is turkey is now negotiating with russia on buying the as 400. I was wondering if this is a tactic to get better terms with the nato system. Or will they buy a russian system for their defenses . You can put this any more general context about where you think the future for turkish nato relations will go in this new era. I think its hard to answer that question. Without knowing the future of nato itself is. Setting aside, the negotiations with russia on the as 400, i do think, theres a fair bit of posturing involved in that turkey is keeping its options open and in case it felt that the United States was aligning more fully with its own interests in syria, in particular that we wouldnt be hearing so much about the as 400 anymore. Just looking at the situation on the ground in syria and russia behavior, despite the alleged lovefest between erdogan and vladimir after erdogan apologized to him, what youve seen is russia acting against perkins interest. When turkey try to make a move, russia sent its forces, resume forces and they might have swapped uniforms, some people say, but i dont know exactly what happened but russia moved to protect them in the same on the western flank. Pinning turkey in on both sides and not allowing turkey to act the way it would like to inside. Also, seeming very ready to go after turkey the minute the turkish showed any sign of sifting back to regime change especially when we thought the enthusiasm displayed by erdogan when the russian response to that. We have this whole business with what happened with. [inaudible] i cant remember his latest name. Obviously lots of pressure on turkey to move against. [inaudible] its in the position to do so because its right there on the turkish border. I think theres a lot of tension even on the trite friend there were bands on the exports, they havent been removed yet. Turkey was eagerly expecting russian tourists to go back to turkey and i think, a few weeks ago the charter flights, russia decided to cancel them. There is tension on that front. That indicates that contrary to what weve been seen in the progovernment media, neither side trust each other. Vladimir doesnt trust erdogan and im not sure about erdogan because he was quite optimistic and thought that he could change the russian calculations in syria but obviously he couldnt but i dont think the smooth projected by the government circles in turkey. Also, quickly, on russia, erdogan thanks he has a friend in moscow. Hes wrong. If a big mistake. I think the way vladimir looks at the region in the middle east is that his main concern among syrian and Everything Else going on is the success of political islam, specifically success of sunni political islam which is one reason hes extremely family with egypt. Its not as clear but he and letter libya. Vladimir is picking secular politics, doesnt matter what their nature is over the brotherhoodpolitical alternative. Russias year abroad in the Northern Tier of the middle east its unaccountable. Hell do everything to undermine him. Supports opposition which is why he has linked with both like pg and pkk and have stronger ties with them Going Forward. Thats a tip for Vladimir Putin and for an outside. Its also why. [inaudible] surrounded by isis, not fighting isis, fighting the aside regime in turkey. Thats a clear positioning. I think he sees air to erdogan will be mistaken and that Vladimir Putin is a friend going for it. Theres another reason for why hes adversarial to the success of erdogan experiment in turkey. Russias about 20 muslim. The Muslim Community has ethnic ties or historical ties to russian muslims are closely linked to parts. Their historically linked to turks because they were expelled by the stars and they have a large. [inaudible] in turkey. Vladimir putin knows what happened in turkey resonates much stronger inside russia than what happens in egypt or libya. Thats why i think the ultimate fall of erdogan is his goal. I dont see how theyll be friends Going Forward. Russia will be his main adversary as the polarization continues in the scenarios that i looked at in my book include of course how russians are and have tried to undermine turkey stability Going Forward. Interesting. Very good. Besser ginsburg, am i right . Think you. I very much enjoyed the panel. There is something that you didnt mention or i didnt pick up from any of you and maybe thats because you consider the issue not relevant to the outcome of the referendum but ill give you the opportunity to help me get better educated. That is what happened in the coup or the order to, whatever you may want to call it, what happened as a result what has been the impact that was all we were reading about when turkey was the post to round up . What has the cruise consequences been on this referendum Going Forward . It almost sounds like the two issues almost are separate none of you brought the coup into your discussions into where things are going today. Well, i think, the failed coup almost handed him what was captured on sunday. Im sorry we forgot to mention that. I think it played a huge role because once again, that victim hood narrative that he talks about in his book and that was at play. Because of that failed to he could be able to recreate that narrative and now hes the victim of enemies not just out there but within the state. I think that played a very important role. In terms of the supporters, i remember in the runup up to the referendum, listening to scholars in turkey who were talking about whether he alienated thousands of people after the failed to and people were asking whether that would translate into lots of votes. I dont think i can answer that question. Clearly, the question comes down to how much electoral support that the islamic have. Were they a real political block once we hear is the whole debate that is going on that is critical of the government and purchase themselves, their mostly within the elite of the grand movement. Many of them, those who are not in jail, managed to flee the country and the rest they just do not see the difference. They share the same similar ideology, thats why the turkish they did not translate into lots of votes for erdogan on sunday. Anything else on the impact of the coup . I dont think any of us really knows what happened. Who actually participated . Who actually planted . I still think that remains a big mystery. The narrative is a significant number of. [inaudible] were involved and this was a coalition between them and various other erdogan officers in the army but i dont think we know because the government has seen to it that we dont know. The parliamentary inquiry that was supposed to be conducted on this been very opaque. The media has been muzzled and is unable to do his job. So, i think, we really dont know whats going on inside the army itself as a result. Of this coup. That is the more important question. What impact has this coup had on the army and what does this pretend for its future in terms of the ability to intervene again, if it so chooses to. And what role it will be in turkish political life. Perhaps it was a portly, who the army is. What kind of people are joining the army. With the new ideology in the army . There are suggestions out there that its a very different its much more conservative, religious, the new inductees are much more in the mold of erdogan vision. Its just speculation for now. Thank you. Yes, sir. My name is. [inaudible] i have a couple quick questions. We heard about resuming Peace Process after what happened in all these areas, do you think its an important opportunity to make the Peace Process with the hgp. My other question is. [inaudible] was shortened and the votes were approved for article to be in the change of the constitution got support from hp, what kind of deal between the islamic rule to get to that deal and to draft the constitution . Also on this map. Why do we take just two questions. So for non turkish aficionados, this was the Peace Process between the government and the kurds in the south and then the second question on the relationship between the islamists, hpv and the hard nationalist secularists, and hp. What deal was struck . I can take it would. Since i am not contrarian, the curtis issue. First of all, we need to be very careful about which kurds do we think president erdogan would be talking to if indeed, he feels the snood magnanimity is compelled because he has no other choice. The fact that he, you know, talking about the Death Penalty, the fact that hes lashing out against the white pg, within hours practically of the result being announced, i dont think that suggests that she is Ready Anytime soon to resume peace talks with the filed. Curtis Political Movement which is how i would roughly defined. Its bad news for people like. [inaudible] between now and the time that the president ial system fully thin and he has new parliamentary elections where he hopes to drive the hdp and the mht below the 10 threshold. So that hell have an absolute majority in parliament and the chp will look like, i guess, the opposition does in russia. I dont think hes ready to talk on the contrary, i was saying on the panel that was posted the other day, he is creating his own. [inaudible] this is a mix of pious kurds, we already saw the. [inaudible] voted for him in the election and that might explain part of the bump, some would argue that the irregularities in the fact that the kurds were prevented from campaigning effectively and monitoring effectively explained that as well. He will create by awarding contracts in all the cities, that were destroyed, through patronage create some kind of a base for himself. I dont think hell go back to talking to either the pkk or the hgp unless erdogan completely rolls over and agrees everything he tells them to do which i dont think is very likely because if you were to do so, hed lose all credibility with the kurdish people. And his own followers among the kurds. Unlikely to see a reconciliation there. I want to add one thing. When he talks about Death Penalty, i think is referring to the. [inaudible] you can apply. You think he cares when hes talking about severing ties with europe and tells the osc to mind their own business . Thats not my point. If you read you think that just because he talks about Death Penalty he could not possibly talking about returning to the curtis peace forces, is what im saying is maybe thats not relevant. Baby hes not referring to referring to the. [inaudible] yeah, i made my point. Im more optimistic and especially, if you look at the they lost ground two. The kurds dont have very many options to turn to. If you look at places like the border town and hdp stronghold and the only party there. Places like charlotte, for instance, that in such a context where erdogan is referring to this ultranationalist, if he could be able to capture votes in the town at the expense of the hdp this tells me that the kurds also. [inaudible] will broker a peace deal. There such demand and as long as theres electable politics i think he might end up going back but thats presuming that the election was free and fair in the southeast. It wasnt fair and free and fair. Preparing the results of a referendum weather yes or no, with those of parliamentary elections where the voter would be voting but in this case is yes. Its apples and oranges. We need to be careful and need much more information about what actually happened before we draw firm conclusions about voting person among the kurds in the southeast. I can also chime in. Its a great discussion and im enjoying it. [laughter] i think what happened is a mystery. Overall, turks love to vote. We know that. 85 turnout. Turnout was much higher in areas with a referendum failed to reach 90 . Although with coastal provinces reach 90. Thats pretty impressive for any democracy. Turnout was lower in kurdish areas than the national average. Was about 80 and in some provinces higher upper 70s. Lower turnout in kurdish areas but the only area where erdogan made significant gain prepared to vote for the kp in the elections before. [inaudible] they dont explain gains of 20 in some provinces. Overall, erdogan vote compared to age kp vote in the large selection that voted for him in the president ial election if you compare whichever one you take, mainly stagnated across the country and dropped in certain provinces. Instable it dropped a little bit , it increased in curtis areas. Still a mystery. If theres any irregularities, they will be there. Might non poster view, nonspecifically looking at a secular version at observer id love to see if anything happened there. I would like to say the pkks decision to carry the war to the cities, caused a lot of unhappiness among ordinary turks. A were very upset that the pkk did that to them. In that sense, if you had a free and Fair Election i still think you see the hd heat vote go down. I absolutely agree with that. Lets take a couple more questions and will bring this to a close. Were running out of time on the. Congratulations to the panel. I wanted to go back to the scenarios that Soner Cagaptay and his remark about erdogan strategy. I think you said that it is strategy about creating half the countrys enemies and now that hes run out of domestic enemies he has to turn toward foreign enemies but it also seems he has nothing but foreign enemies. So, im wondering how he handles the situation which he has no friends, no external friends. What that would mean for your original scenarios . Dave pollock, up in front. Thank you, very much. Again, congratulations on a great book and a great panel. I want to ask about strangely enough about islam. We really havent heard all that much from any of you about the specifically religious islamic affect of either erdogan program Going Forward, his appeal to voters, his affect on what that has an foreignpolicy and my guess, conclusion that from what youve been saying is that after 15 years in power erdogan the hpp have not managed to further Turkish Society and politics. Is that a correct conclusion . What else can you say about the specific aspects of the islamic issues come up in the future . Applications of having no friends, islam and turkey and lastly, just for the record, this is the last election erdogan wins or do you expect him to win again . Were going to market in history books. [laughter] sumac i can take the last question on his own. He managed to it with my society but he hasnt tried to islamized state. Officially, i always argue that turkish is different than the middle eastern islam in the region and other parts of the region. Thats again, that for something to do with the state commission that i talked about. I think that when he came to power he became part of the democracy and he socialized into the faith culture. He didnt even try to islamized the state institutions itself. Islam is a literature in turkey for instance. It doesnt make reference to the concept like soraya law that often. That tells you something about the turkish, islamist psyche. I think theres no threat there. When we say that the problem is not Erdogan Islam is on, its the authoritarianism. It will always be a problem. His whole project has revolved around raising pious generations and turning the Turkish Society into a more religious society. He has managed that. Of course, we need political scientists to do more research on this is a global phenomenon and the rights of religiosity. Maybe turkey is not an exception in this regard. I dont know if it was erdogans doing, to a certain extent, yes, you see trends from the whole education system, but when it comes to creating a soraya type state, i dont think hes done much. Before he came to power he was critical of chemical institutions for religious affairs. He always argue that. [inaudible] is a tool. To not only suppress religion but to control religion. He promoted getting rid of that institution but he came to power and now its even a bigger. [inaudible] with a bigger budget. It points to his status. He came a bureaucrat in that regard. I like to add a few words. He does instrument lies islam, though. That could be quite dangerous as weve seen it manifested in for instance, videos that were posted of Police Cadet Training where they chant islam is slogans or the people there training who do the same. The fact that when the coup was unfolding, he rallied people around religion, you had the imam blaring islam a slogan, making a call for jihad. Essentially. A lot of instrument for islam much more so than any of his predecessors, clearly. Another thing that i would point to as a risk is. [inaudible] the fact that groups like isis have established Networks Inside turkey and seem to be help recruit is not something that obviously needs to be watched. Final word just before we conclude. Of course, i agree with amber and if turkeys neighbors were it looks a verb, and the netherlands, i would not be worried. Its the middle class, educated people connected to the word world. How about canada and spain . Thats not the case. Isis is a neighbor and it has been a neighbor for a long time. Its a jihadist nextdoor that makes turkey islamization for turkey and turks. That means turkey can become a recruiting pool for jihadist ideology and have a chapter in my book and i will tell you more about it you have to buy it. I want to take the other question just before fishing on foreign enemies. I think that because the polarization wont help him read another round of election, he has to win that next election is otherwise left to do what. [inaudible] will be president and his parliament will put him under party and the system is not set up to function like that. It set up to a majority controlled by the president and the parliament and it will collapse. Will have to akp solid majority in the next elections do not end up. [inaudible] to get there has to win elections. Whenever the elections are early or on time 2019, foreign enemies is the only way going for it. Nationalism will drive his agenda, its easy to unify. Thats where the early question about the agreements come in. Theyre very different parties but hpp base and. [inaudible] overlap significantly in turkey. Again, if you look at the map, if you look at the areas of central and northeastern turkey for support for erdogan was odd from nhp, its where nhp base is significantly more conservative than other areas in fi the deal works. This will be his game Going Forward for consolidate a nationalist agenda with the strongmen image. That means problems with europe, problems with United States and at least in the shortterm, significant problems of the us on the kurdish account. Before i finish i want to take one final word. I was extremely delighted to see sony friends and colleagues here today. Thank you for coming. This is a great afternoon for me , a labor of love for the last year. Thank you. Thank you for bearing with my crazy work hours and its been a wonderful project. Im happy to launch this book with you and finally before i conclude, i want to thank tony and vanessa fire, for their generosity makes i work happen. I hope there watching me. Hello. Thank you all for coming. Ill be out there if you want to have me sign copies and will do more events on the book. Thank you. Thank you all very much. Congratulations Soner Cagaptay. Thank you for joining us today. [inaudible conversations] your watching book tv. Television for syrias readers. You can watch any Program Online booktv. Org. [inaudible conversations] good evening