Transcripts For CSPAN2 Sea Power 20170817

He is the author of seven prior books. This is his eighth. And over 100 articles about naval procedures, leadership, and geopolitical issues. Even his wife, larura, is an author. Since retiring the supreme colonel and from the navy, he has been the dean at the Fletcher School of law at the tuft university. The very same place he got his doctorate. He has been given 15 civilian awards from around the world for his work and within the last 11 months, he has been considered for a Vice President ial pick by one Political Party and as secretary of state by another Political Party. I find that [laughter] when James Stavridis speaks people listen to him. I am glad to see all these people here tonight listening to him technique. All his experience out at sea and at shore gives him insight into what we face today. We are fortunate to have him her with his newest book sea power when i cannot wait to read. Ladies and gentlemen, James Stavridis. Normally when people hear that introduction, bob, thank you, that was very find. Normally when people hear that introduction they have one overwhelming reaction when they meet me in person which is boy, i thought you would be taller thank you appear to be. We will take just a couple of minutes and talk about the oceans of the world today. And you know, so often as we look at a map of the world, we tend to think of the land; right . It is logical. Yet 70 , 70 of this planet are the oceans and by the way, 70 of your body is composed of water. Here is another one. 70 of the oxygen that you breathe comes from photosynthesis in the ocean. The ocean as the british used to say who know a thing or two about naval the british say the oceans are one. They connect everywhere. So tonight as we talk about the oceans i invite you to think about 70 that water world that we inhabit today. What im going to do is very quickly im going to take 20 minutes and were going to walk through the ocean of the world and try to tie it together with the challenges we face and then what we ought to do about it. So lets start with the pacific ocean. This is a 1589 chart of the pacific by a a photographer bottom right you see who voyaged 5,000 miles, 10,000 years ago to inhabit the pacific. You know as i got ready to get underway with in san diego in my 500 i said to my crew the pacific is dangerous. We have to really be on our toes. [laughter] can you imagine getting in an a outrigger and sailing 5,000 miles . The polynesians did this. This is the largest of the ocean. The pacific you dont have to remember these numbers but pacific is 170 million square kilometer but a better way to think about the pacific you can take all of the land in the world and put it inside the pacific ocean. Its enormous, and it is an inchenet sea and it has been sailed. It has been sailed for centuries. Here are two ships, bottom ship that kind of little one locks like a little toy boat youll know that ship. Thats the santa maria like the pin tay the three ships that Christopher Columbus sailed to america, it was 60 feet long. 1492 the behemoth next to was the flagship of the chinese admiral jinghe six decks, 500 mariners on it, it dwarf ship that Christopher Columbus sailed on we need to understand how china views the pacific aside an ancient sea and enormous sea and one they have sailed for centuries. In the American Mind when we think about the pacific what do we think about typically . World war ii. We think about the attack on pearl harbor. The campaign to retake the pacific. This is a period of time the early 1940s when the United States navy has hundreds of ships that we do today, we have hundreds of Aircraft Carriers. Today, we have 12 Aircraft Carriers. Hundreds of Aircraft Carriers, we dominated the pacific. In american view of the pacific tends to have that dna and how we think about it. But another nation is rising at sea. And it is an ancient nation an ancient civilization it is chin. These are chinese Ballistic Missiles Nuclear Powered submarines. Highly capable i put them here as examples of the rise of the chinese fleet that we have seen really over the last decade. Chinese now have two Aircraft Carriers again we have 12. But they are buildings and they are on a a constant increase in their maritime capability and its not just ships on the left tokyo, this is the Pacific Century building. Among large test in tokyo, largest commercial centers built and owned by china. On the right, you see a chinese warship proudly pulling into a port visit, where . Pearl what are, hawaii, the United States of america. China is on the move. China he has what they regard as historical claim to the South China Sea. It would be roughly though the United States claimed to own the gulf of mexico. Chinas belief is that theyre and chengt territorial right is the result of all of those voyage offed a jink he vument they own that water with space and all of the hydrocarbon that are under it. 80 of pacific trade passes through this South China Sea. To reenforce this claim china is building Artificial Island and reefs, many of them. Thousands of acres and theyre militarizing e those are airstrips you see. Each one of those islands becomes a kind of Aircraft Carrier from which china seeks to operate and it reenforcing their claims under International Law. Fortunately, we have allies in this region. We have japan which is increasing its military spending and is more inclined to operate alongside us. We have south korea. A booming economy, new president. Our allies are the heart of our Maritime Strategy this this region and its good that we have them because we have an enormous tactical problem. China is a strategic challenge that tactical problem is right here. Its north korea. This is kim jongun, kim jongun and hes well named because he has unpredictable, unstable untested, untried, morbidly obese, addicted to opioids hes got really bad haircut [laughter] i think that holds him back and hes hes building Ballistic Missiles that can it range great distance. Over time his ambition is to create news clear weapons, merry them to it these missiles and fly them over pacific. So we have a significant challenge here and that in a sense is a good thing because it provides a con fliewns of interest between the United States and china in the pacific. Lets turn to the atlantic as we skip around oceans and this is how the chapter is structured a history of the ocean. The geoplainings what it is like to sail in that ocean as a mariner. The atlantic is the ultimate tran are sit zone in hurst in so many ways. And it begins with mariner who is come from spain and portugal and prince henry bottom right everyone would recognize Christopher Columbus. Upper left the greatest of navigator majelin. Portuguese mariner these mariners transit the atlantic and create a global economy. How do we think of it in the United States . We think of world world war i and a 2 are plt determination to resupply the europeans in those two wars, create are transit zones, convoys, much warfare to small hinges these convoys are swinging big doors of the war. If we had not controlled the atlantic, we would have not succeeded in either of those warses that the american view of the atlantic. Today, were challenged on the atlantic by Vladimir Putin by resurgent of the navy and our problem is that we keep looking for the strategic terrain in the atlantic on this map and its not there. The strategic or terrain is right here. Its the mind of Vladimir Putin. Hes rebuilding the russian navy. This is a brand new russian the admirable highly capable in the next three years russia will add 100 ships to their fleet. We will be challenged on our coast, in the greenland iceland united kingdom, g. I. U. K. Gap that is sometimes called. Were going to see a resurgent russia in the atlantic as we see a resurgent china in the pacific. Lets turn to the Third Largest ocean that would be the indian ocean so pacific 160 million square kilometers, atlantic, around 100. Indian ocean just a tad smaller but a big ocean. You could take the entire land maps of the United States times three and put it in the indian ocean, with it began routs today increasingly hay dro are car won, the two geopolitical actors india on the left. Pakistan on the right. Have their own kind of cold war manifesting and maritime confrontation in this indian ocean. We see piracy around the edges of it. And off the coast of yemen, we see the inner play of shia thats supporting rebels and sunni, saudi arabia, the gulf states supporting the government of yemen with the United States leaning towards scraib a great deal of action is playing out in the maritime theater. And we ought to consider the number one challenge in the indian ocean is right here its iran thats the ran i can flag this is a missile. Iran sees itself as an imperial power. They will seek to recreate the persian empire. These are the battle flags of cyrus the magnificent, 25h years ago, darius the great and the flag of iran today. Look at the water space around that persian empire. In all of this, brings confrontation between up upper right, iran, shia nation, bottom left sunni world led by saudi arabia our closest ally and friend, israel in the middle of this mix. The United States very much involved so maritime activity not only to South China Sea. Not only the atlantic, but also this Persian Arabian Gulf and water withs of the indian ocean. What elsesome the mediterranean how many people have gone on a cruise to the meds mediterranean a wonderful place to get in a big cruiseliner really to enjoy yourself. The Mediterranean Sea of all of the worlds oceans has seen the most combat, the most war if i could snap my fingers and bring back to life all of the dead mariners dropped at sea all of the smoking holes that went to the bottom and somehow miraculously bring them back we would completely cover the surface of the Mediterranean Sea with those sailors. This is the battle of laponto epic maritime battles in history in which a Christian Coalition led by the hungarian empire essentially thought the empire in a small place called laponto in the center of mediterranean. The med is where war at sea began. Today the challenge is in the eastern mediterranean, syria. This is brutal dictator and work criminal assad a coastline on the mediterranean and heres what it looks like. It is confrontation between the United States and russia thats the russian flag right above the u. S. In the other nations of this region, are in conflict not only about the geopolitics, about but also about the hydrocarbon an area of the world rich under the sea in oil and natural gas. These nations will compete for that. So cyprus is about it is indeed what does it all lead to. It leads to this. Waves of refugees that move and take a look at that refugee boat, picture yourself on that trying to cross those waters. So these are deeply, deeply conflicted waters with huge high high humanitarian challenges with huge issues at play. Lets come closer to issues at home in florida this is caribbean a sea that we know well here in florida and im a florida native by the way i was born just north, and West Palm Beach the less expensive side of town. [laughter] the caribbean is an extraordinary body of water rich in tradition and history. Today from a u. S. Perspective, the beating heart of it is the panama conditional twothirds of the maritime trade passes but the canal and well run them and expanded very recently. Yet there are challenges here in the medicine mediterranean and gangs right to left are going sea and natural disasters plague the region and refugee problems here. Up or left we have challenge of narcotics. But actually narcotic let me show you a hope, this is a drug bust and hightech navy vessel capturing drug runner. The bad news is that the hightech u. S. Navy vessel is one on top in the photograph. [laughter] the one on the bottom that looks like batsman submarine, that was built in the jungle of columbia when we caught this thing, and truth in advertising theres a Navy Destroyer just outside the picture when we caught this thing,ed it ten tons of cocaine many it. 10,000 street value, miami. 150 million dollars. So lets park the issue of should people yews drugs or not i think it is a medical issue its a personal choice. What i worry about is the money. It cost the cartel to put it to sea and load it with ten tons of cocaine are 5 million in, 150 million out. Thats what undermine fragile democracies in central america, that create ares corruption. Driven by demand here in the United States. And so luckily we have partners who focus on this transit zone but will never solve this in the transit zone of we have to work on the supply side in places like in the indian rich and we chave to work on the demand side here in the United States. And address medically the challenges here. Lets go north to the arctic on the left is a doomed vessel the uss gennette that sailed and powered itself up into the high north in the mid19th century. Private public expedition that caught in the ice. Its crew most of them lost. A handful escaped that shows us that even as late as the late 19th century we have no idea what was in the high north. Today, i will tell you as a fact the ice is melting. You know we can have a big debate about the science of Global Warming im here as a mariner and a ill tell you as a fact the ice is melting as a result those sea lane of communication are going to open. Hydrocarbons will be available, and there will be significant competition in the high north we have a chance had unfortunately of turning this into a real cold war. Pun intended over time and russia on one with side of this arctic and five nato nations u. S. , canada, denmark because of green lanked, iceland norway on the other side. This because of ice melting will create real geopolitical challenge and arctic counsel nato on one sides russia on the other lets hope we can find a way to use diplomacy to avoid further cron applicant in the high north. And we dont know how many ice breakers how many do they have . You get it, you get the prize. One. Okay denmark a nation of 4 Million People they have 6. Russia has dozens. China has 12 and building more. We need to step up our game if were going to operate in the high north. So lastly having walked you through a few of the worlds oceans let me turn to what i call sometimes the outlaw sea. The out law sea the oceans are the largest crime scene in the world. Pollution dumping, acidification piracy itself, fishing underreported, underregulated, catches of protein down 60 over the last two decades. And the oceans are warming, again we can have a debate about why thats happening. But its a fact and again, environmentally, we face the longterm challenge because our oxygen comes from oceans respect to amazon are the lungs of the earth thats not right. The oceans are the lungs of the world thats where our oxygen comes from. Rigs about now you ought to say okay admiral im worried. You know you took us on a ten minute voyage and im worried well, what do you think . And, i mean, what are the opportunities to create better securitiesome and to hans the oceans responsibly. What would this 19th century old o broken down admirable alfred mahan who wrote the naval strategy of the United States 150 years ago what would he say and whats the first thing we should do to make sure we can continue to be a sea power . Now you think that next picture is going to be like an Aircraft Carrier coming at you, right . No. Number one with thing we should do it listen more. Listen more. This gentleman is listening. This is actually from about 80 years ago its an early air Defense System hes listening for incoming aircraft but i put it here for us as metaphor. We should listen literally to the ocean we need to study them and understand whats going on. We should listen to our allies, our partners our friends in the world. We should listen to our opponents to find ways to avoid conflict. Thats my number one prescription. What else can we do . This is the Naval War College in Newport Rhode island to do exactly what youre doing tonight and we can stop, we can listen. Like students do at a college, and we can learn and converse, agree, disagree, in a responsible way. We can have a dialogue and build intellectual capital to understand our oceanings. What else . We can hold on to our values. Our values and our values come to us upper left from the ancient greeks thats aristotle from the asians thats beau do they drop through enlightenment thats the young on the right probably the best portrait ever made so normally kind of a old man. Like me [laughter] through the Founding Fathers to people like Angela Merkel i would argue most responsible, value driven leader in the world today we need to hold those values and a principle value to think about in terms of our oceans is the responsible for future generations as well as our geopolitical concerns today. What else can we do . And im in a wonderful bookstore so proud to be here, we can read more. We can read magazines like the economist and unbiased, central magazine with no buy line. People ask me sometimes in this era fake news, where do i turn . Try the economist. I spent four years as supreme reading the president daily intelligence brief. If you read the economist cover to cover once a week you will get 80 plus president of what the president is seeing. You can read biography of great officers like eb potter one of my hero and mentors in the world of writing want to read a novel cruel sea and heartbreaking story of life at sea and war in its impact on people. But above all about the oceans. Also the game about battle and reach back into history in reread. Athens a sea power confronting sparta a land power. How does that turn out . What are the echoes for today . Okay heres the picture of the Aircraft Carrier. Yes. We need a strong and capable navy. We need Aircraft Carrier submarine and surface our fleet today is 275 ships. Under president reagan we had almost 600 in in world war ii we had thousands. Were not in an open war right now we doapght need thousands. Were not in a cold war and we dont need 600 but we need more than 275. We need 325 to 350 ships. Thats not me kind of winging it, that is serious analysis. How do we get there . We have build some more and we have to extend life some but we need a capable fleet. But its not just about your navy. Its about your coast guard and marine core, these joint partners who work together. Its about our allies and friends look at this photograph, these are pirates capture ed an somali pirates out of phillips many of you have seen that film im sure. These are french you have french marines who have landed in Italian Military helicopter. They refuel at aish portuguese, aircraft overhead protecting them. Based on satellite imagery provided by the United States. Its a coalition folks we dont want to be the worlds policeman whats not our job but we want to work with ally, friends and partners to take on challenges together. So in addition to our navy and our joint partners, we need our ally our friend. When we go to face china, as we must in the South China Sea on these Artificial Islands, well rely not only on or ships but on japan and south korea and australia to help us. Question need the United Nations not a popular organization. But the u. N. Is the backbone of International Law that creates the regime of the oceans its a good treaty we should ratify it. We need more of this. When i was a commander of u. S. Southern comangd right here for three years, kernel jorge right over there was my team lead for many, many things. We filled these hospital ships with doctors and nurses. Private sector, inner agency, ally doctors. We had dutch and French Military doctors and civilian volunteers. We had everybody operating on this it was the ultimate sport in many years as a admirable i ordered deployment of many Aircraft Carriers into combat. The most important deployments i made were these hospital ships. Firmly convinced of that. We need private, Public Corporation this is private vessel receiving fuel after being freed from pirates by a u. S. Navy fueler. Ill conclude that background of this book is not only the geopolitics which ive talked about but trade or economy and 95 of the worlds goods move at sea. But its i try to communicate in the book what had its like to be a mariner what its like to sail into the arctic what its like to sail through the straight what does it feel like when you approach the coast of china in the dark of night dodging fishing boats . Its choppy. Its challenging. [laughter] i spent 11 years of many my life day for day on the deep ocean out of sight of land. I spent 16 years assigned to ships 11 day for day on that ocean. And you know what, sometimes things go wrong. [laughter] more than often this is where epght to close this is the ocean i know. Its the ultimate room with a view an office with a view. It was a privilege to serve my nation as a sailor for 37 years. Ive tried to pour that experience into this book. To pull some history along side it and geopolitics above it but above all this is a sailors book thank you very much for being with us today. Thank you. Thank you. [applause] thank you. Thank you. I would love to, very kind thank you very much. Love to take some questions about issues in the world today. The book anything you would like to ask at all. Yes, sir. Admirable on the last picture that you had of japan south korea and australia [inaudible conversations] yeah, in i should put new zealand there and department put the philippines who are treaty ally thailand who is treaty ally. When i put those three i did so because those are the three largest Maritime Forces who are most likely to come to operate are with us you can correctly pointing out in addition to three who are reity allies new zealand, thailand and philippines are also treaty ally and we also i hasten to add have a very close relationship with singapore not quite a treaty ally but close. So i put those three because they have the most capable navy most likely to operate with us in that particular scenario. Thanks. Yes, sir. Id like to ask as you are commander of latin america of growing unrest in venezuela what challenges that may face for refugee or piracy or i think you youve hit the really dark end of the spectrum would be a complete collapse of order in the nation which conceivably could lead to waves of refugee. It is more likely that they would move across the border into columbia than they would take to sea but some number probably qowld take to sea. I dont think its a maritime problem per se. But i think its an a enormous potential humanitarian crisis. Already within venezuela, to we have any here tonight normally we would in a miami audience im shocked we dont o. It is a becoming difficult with real violence on the streets. Let us hope that they dot right thing which is not to create a new kind of lump parliament and jam a new constitution through. Let us hope had that he allows current rule of law to follow what the United States ought to do is support the efforts of the o. A. S. Organization of american states to put pressure on to do the right thing and follow the legality within the venezuelan constitution we should feel very positive that were seeing both columbia and brazil qhor helping with that and putting immediate pressure on. In terms of hydrocar been and u. S. Economy not significant at this point. Of the United States has become a exporter of hydrocarbons, by dont have time for long discussion about energy parts humanitarian crisis the United States should not take froct line of this to alaw to create a target in the United States. Use ally not to be the world policeman but others take the lead. Its a huge, huge challenge in this hemisphere. Yes, maam and then up here. So my question with the noters and glacier melting and the trade that could happen in the north is if theres no longer polar icecap and russia long stapgding desire for warm water port so can you give us sort of a 20year outlook on that . I can. Assuming that Global Warming helicopterrings were going to see within 20 years well see the sea lane of chiewngs, the shipping lanes, open all year round. That means we have to create systems of buoys to mark them. We have to provide search and a rescue. We have to ensure that mariners can operate safely and crew tankers l and g tankers so we have to create a regime to do that. We need to cooperative relationship with russia. The problem is, we have an extreme geopolitical confrontation with russia over o syria, where they support assad over invasion of ukraine and intrusion. So how do we get out of this this . My belief is we use the arctic counsel which i highlighted if for you and we try to take a very pragmatic approach to say we must confront where it was on crucial issue i mentioned but lets find disoafn cooperation with russia federation. I think the arctic could be one of those zones. So im cautiously optimistic that well be able to preserve this extremely fragile environment one which has never known had war, and over o time find a cooperative relationship with russia. There because it is in their interest as well with as ours. Yes, sir. Has to do with china you mentioned confrontation with china and South China Sea, which ive heard from other areas, and seems to me that britain had a similar issue with the United States around the turn of the vie with the caribbean and United States we were going to grab it and britain had a choice to confront the United States or o they could let United States take control of the caribbean with with desperate threats, germany navy, empire and such seems to me looking at the South China Sea china has a reason to believe this is their sea. Do they really pose such a threat to us that we cannot give them more room to maneuver in South China Sea and avoid the confrontation . And seem there that control of that area like most of the world exceeds our control in caribbean. First of all i would say that mexico, cuba, jamaica, trinidad, et cetera in no way control the caribbean. What china is attempting to do to follow your analogy would be to actually take territorial control to make that a territorial sea. So i think the analogy breaks down a bit because of the expansioniveness of the chinese desire here. I think its fair to say and i would agree with you that it is reasonable for us to e believe that china ought to have significant influence in asia. Significant influence in asia. That makes sense. But we should not exceed to simply territorial control over an enormous body of water that would be an enormously bad precedent. I think that historic analogy thats actually more apt that you kind of pulled at was the confrontation between Great Britain and germany about 100 years ago. Here you have an established power facing a rising power. This is sometimes called the tram where in an established power is challenged by a rising power. My friend Graham Allison professor at harvard has done extensive historical analysis over the 16 times in the last several thousand years that that situation has entailed in 12 of those situations the two nations go to war. In four of them, they do not. What we need to do is understand china. Listen to them. Exceed where we can, cooperate where we can, but confront where they really push beyond borders of what makes sense if we do that job your point i think we can avoid this trap and avoid open confrontation. Others yeah how about this young man way over here. J hello. Okay as an admirable whats primary difference you have between sea attack versus a land battle. Okay great question. So the ocean, the biggest thing, of course, is terrain. The ocean heres the news flash the oceans are flat. Theres no terrain borders between them you know how fast you can cross them, you have many more known elements in a sea battle on the surface. On land you have enormous obstacles you have to get over. The challenge is below the sea in todays world. I sometimes envy have admirals like lord nelson that who could see all of the challenge in front of him. And admirable today has to worry about this undersea battle thats very three dimensional. So i would say in really simple terms, in admirable has to deal with the surface of the oceans but his challenge is whats whatting underneath and, of course, theres an air battle overhead but thats the same in both components. So for the admirable he has an advantage with the flatness of the sea but a danger from what is under it. The general has many more challenges in terms of obstacles in a physical zone. But he or she can map those and doesnt have to deal with that hidden dimension under the quarter so two different kinds of battle mind setses are necessary between admirable and jns whats over here and get someone on this side of the room. How is the [inaudible conversations] columbus because i like the 1500s of those mariners. I think the question is how do you describe the skills of the mariners in the 15, 16th century and how are they different than need and expand the question so today being a mariner is a lot easier lets face it you have satellites overhead. That pin point your position. You have distant Surveillance Systems both undersea and in the air you have many more tools. Mariners that i showed you had to rely on wind and current on pilots orders that said you know the last time i took this voyage the prevailing winds were from the northeast that means that i was getting to the its very intuitive sailing early mariner developed navigation as they went with along. Navigational systems including the use of music music there we go. Including, including eventually longitude which really changed navigation but that is before so people at Christopher Columbus sailed by what is called direct reckoning when they take their ship, they take a log to see how far they have gone in a given hour, day they plot it on a chart an they estimate how much the current and wind have pushed them off. It was a very intuitive its a difference i would say between art and science today. [laughter] how about someone over here. How about back in the corner . So i first round expert the day that Aircraft Carriers are a thing the past, and focused on them that the u. S. Has mistakes. Im not sure i agree with said people. But i would be curious on your take on that. Aircraft carriers remain the centerpiece of the u. S. Fleet. And they are enormous machines of war. Just to give you an idea of the scale of these ships you could take the Empire State Building lay it on its side thats how long an a aircraft is. Its 100,000 tons has a crew of 5,000. Its flight deck is 8 acres of sovereign u. S. Territory and has 80 aircraft combat on it. More to the point it is defended and doesnt sail by itself. Its defended by cruisers, destroyers, submarines under it land base over it. Surveillance systems concern theyre well protected. They are not invulnerable they are not invulnerable and could be hit by hypersonic crews miss pls a submarine could slip underneath them so heres the bottom line we should rely on the carriers but we should not make them independencable. We need to district combat power with tomahawk missile with other large ships we have that capability we need a balanced fleet with about about 12 carriers. But about 100 cruisers destroyers to protect them and district that firepower. Not 60 submarines we need a districted fleet we dont want to overrely on carrier nor should we overestimate them and close by saying our points focus constantly on the carriers. Back here in the hawaiian shirt. Consequences if any would have occurred at the end of the cold war of the United States gradually got out of the south korea trying to make it just a local dispute between the north and the south that appears to me that its attention call to the United States that were there. And if we have less than south have a local dispute served for inked why and pakistan and might be a a little bit better. I think what you would today and you know its always a fascinating game to sort of think about what if, what weve done that and havent gone into vietnam, whatever. My guess would be that entire Korean Peninsula today would be unified subject to china. It would be a chinese vessel state essentially, and recall that reason it wect into korea was because it was invaded and so it one make if we left north korean state would have dominated it would be a hard line communist state, and to give you an idea what it would be like i would invite you to do this. Go on google, and google the korean pee peninsula in the night. Ive seen it. In the north theres a single point of light. Everything else is black. To the south theres a freely aluminated world if we had not is is staid the bottom half qowb qowb fully une loom naitd thats my view. We have to call it there it is 8 00 i would love to sign some books for you. Thank you very much. [applause] to the back [inaudible conversations]