It steadies the hidden laws that organize our systems from living organisms not only visionary and insightful little so beautifully written im so excited to hear more tonight and before i let him take over just a . Word how we will run things then us signing in the back where books are also available for purchase thanks for being with us tonight and please help me to welcome. [applause] thanks for coming on such a beautiful night. I was warned it could be a sparse audience because of the beautiful weather much i also would enjoy. So actually i think we will read something from the book of like to tie back to the subtitle of the book this is something my publisher put together. Isnt that cute . [laughter] so it is a pretentious subtitle so i will read this little bit and you can see with the book is about a little bit and then i will give a short presentation. This book is about a way of thinking and asking Big Questions. A book about how some of those major challenges and issues ranging from Rapid Organization and sustainability understanding cancer and metabolism and the origins of aging and death the remarkable similar ways the way that tubers and our bodies work with the general theme systematic nicole regularities of the organizational structure of the big picture framework allows us to address the spectrum of questions some of which are addressed in the ensuing chapters and i will just give you two or three. Like to relive 100 years but not 1,000 why do we die . Can it be changed can lifespans be extended . Why do we stop growing . Wide reactors sleep eight hours every day why do most that only go for a few years but cities keep growing. Can we develop with a conceptual framework in the contemplated every predictable ways . Is there a maximum size to the animals and plants could they be giant white is the pace of life increase and why it is innovation have to accelerate in order to sustain social economics . And those that evolves over 10,000 years for the next biological world so can we maintain a society period idea of Wealth Creation or are we destined to become a planet of devastation . So i will not read any more this is a different version of the book by the way but for some reason i brought the british version with me the leading off from that the background to all of this that i become more and more passionately engaged is the question of Global Sustainability and the possible concept catches it is conceivable that this could be sustained indefinitely and also of to recognize that everybody is with the idea the physical universe is expanding exponentially but but thats toshio economic universe is also expanding so with the u. S. Was formed to a hundred years ago but now 82 so the world made this an easy transition and the planet as eligible is at that level and just tuesday view a sense of that if he is simply average now through 2015 what that means it is roughly speaking we are well over 1 Million People every week that is the equivalent to adding in new york metropolitan area every couple of months so now into the foreseeable future it is like having a new york city every couple of months or like adding the city of seattle adding to the infrastructure and that is extraordinary answer us straight on the energy and resources and don that social fabric is fantastic and that is the of backdrop of which everything happens so many are familiar with this it begins 10,000 years ago which is where we started to become collective and social and the city started to emerge after the you could see that extraordinary growth it shot up so i was born in 1940 so now justin my short lifetime by the end of this century there ted billion people at the end of the planet so the sense of stress on the system is fantastic but of course, this is the paradigm of which we live with the idea of capitalism that has been unbelievably successful with the quality and standard of living and to give another metric the gdp of the United States since the civil war that is equivalent if you invested 1 into the stock market it would be worth 1 million today it is extraordinary expansion in terms of wealth. So now everything is determined with a tsunami of problems with those 80 is of Climate Change and environment with energy and water all of these have been exacerbated by the rapid growth of urbanization. So the fate of the planet is determined by the fate so coming to terms house citys work as a physicist or asking is it conceivable to have that understanding the way cities work . So we urgently need idea of how they work but of course, that the most primitive level that faces a great opportunity with more material wealth access to culture and fancy restaurants with a good education and so one so this is the extraordinary magnet for people of course, with that fundamental level with energy it needs to be supplied to the city im sure ready here is familiar with the words that if you create it in great order then you paid the price of the unintended consequences of samara else so that process to use energy also creates disorder now i have just extended that idea with the consequences of this are the unintended consequences from what we have created which represents itself with things like this. All of these are part of what urban life has created and i would venture to speculate which is in the terms of ethnic or religious conflict that actually has its origins with this date to we have put ourselves into the into the extraordinary stress so does that lead to so much to is association that this is what the planet will look like . This is what seattle will look like in 50 years . Hopefully it is nowhere but there are those that do look like that. So that is the backdrop for what i want to talk about the talking in the terms that i was just talking about is when you think of a city you think of the roads and buildings and the skyscrapers of new york or paris but of course, that is just a stage for what this city really is because it is a really a place to facilitate action for human beings this machine that brings people together to interactive and Exchange Information and create the idea is to innovate and create wealth like Everything Else so this is more the image of the city really with that infrastructure that what is wonderful about this is people have been doing this for 2,000 years the stage is still the same but here is of marvelous picture of new york 120 years ago you can feel that innovation and interaction and you could impose on to these ideas the creation of wealth and this is what york is about to. It doesnt look like that anymore those buildings are still there but those places to bring people together of what is represented here is integration between the physical in the social and this is a representation of that in one since it is just the metabolism with the energy physically inactive is in contention with that information and exchange that is the economic part of the organism that represents and the socioeconomic systems as innovation of Wealth Creation so many of those problems are representative of cities or all of problems that we face are generated by cities so they are the origin of these problems but there also the solution precisely because is debris in the smartest people that are attracted to cities with all the great wealth that is created in the urban environment. So now i will switch gears and talk about biology im using it because it is a large part of the book but also a segue back into the city also what do you mean as daylong discussion but on that quantitative side it would be wonderful to the extent you can calculate anything so for example, in no the motion of the of planet of the degree of accuracy that we can do that because weve understand that a great detail so not only with that city work so in physics that is the cross screen description in and of question whether the part of the book talking about aging and mortality so it is in answering the question why do we live . Where does it come from the order of magnitude wise italy to three years from now . So there is a series of similar questions and as i mentioned also the time that we sleep because night is eight hours long review ask how long a now sleeps is 6917 hours or an elephant about four hours. Oh wailes sleeps about two hours. So where do the numbers come from . Why . Those of the types of questions and moving into this toshio economic coming by those field biological organisms to what extent can we do that . Why is it that they are well destined to die were almost no cities do. Global stenos cities die but 25 per 30 years later they are tied for the of fluctuation in the Stock Market News twa and lehman brothers. Swire the companys so fragile . But the cities are so resilient . So to understand that everybody understands what the hell happened here . That was too close to home. [laughter] so this is what is discussed in the book so the book by the way i tried to put all the equations into english so you could read it and understand it so one of those Amazing Things is that despite the fact to live in quite different environments of the elephant if there is anything you could measure about them or anything about the id like history how long it takes to richer mature but just to give you an example age your Metabolic Rate or how much food you need to eat to stay alive so here is how much you need to stay alive because if you put a mouse on the table and you put it on a linear plot so putting it up by the factor of 10 you go by the factors of 10 but then something remarkable appears with extraordinary irregularity with this process that potentially is the most complex phenomenon and furthermore we believe each of these has a unique history with evolution by Natural Selection so each of these is historically contingent but if you would have thought this random protest was going on. So there would be points all over the graph reflecting that historic goal contingency but quite to the contrary and the second critical point at the most naive level you think the double the organism or the sole so you double the amount of the energy needed. But again that is untrue it is very close to the number threequarters less than one, so instead of doubling the size requiring twice as much energy only requires 75 percent double the size of the couch gatt or mouse or elephant. So were out so these organisms is a scaled version of each other. So furthermore this is true of any group but it is also true of any other variable of the heart rate that increases the mat systematically and the scope of what that because it goes down this is your brain and the grave matter a grave matter in the a and then you can see beautiful scaling. I could spend the rest of the evening showing you these said they all have the save characteristics with a straight line. Furthermore there is this intriguing property with the slope of the of graph is a multiple of one quarter. So that plays a very special role in biology. Word is that come from . So one other thing that is intriguing, im sorry i should have changed this but this statement simply says the of heart rate decreases negative 1 4 but the life span is plus 1 4 and increases that slope said he will deploy those together that increasing of the life span is canceled by the decrease of the heart rate said few multiplied a heart rate by a life span there is no longer any dependents in a big elephant or a whale so there is some amazing results the buildings dont live very long but a big thing is live a long time but they all have this same number of portraits. So what is the origin of all of this . So the point was to ask because all of these ordinances organisms but one thing that definitely transcended that they all have to be supported by networks that one in the middle is the circulatory system this is your brain is all so you and also a the mitochondria some of mathematics and physics of these networks that give rise to these the meiji amazing staging was i will not spend time on this but i can tell you one other piece about biology that i will go back to the cities quickly. Shows blood in the system and so forth. But you now have this theory, the structure which explains all this. Now you can take it and asked some of the questions i asked earlier about longevity, about growth, about cancer, so on and about sleep. The only one i will talk about is growth because that is obviously where you scale. And you are familiar with how you grew and stay alive. You eat, you metabolize, that is food. The food is Sensor Networks and through the networks it delivers resources, and energy to the cells. What is it too at that level . It maintains the cells by repairing damage. It replaces ones that have died in gross new ones. And you can put that, this is just a schematic cartoon you can put this into the mathematics of the network. Then he can solve the equation and determine how the size of an organism change with age. That line there is a prediction of theory and these basic points from rats and you can do this with any organism. The wonderful thing is that the same parameters apply to all organisms such as the cells are pretty much the same as mammals. Given that, you can understand growth in a particular aspect of growth and that is why it is you grow quickly on in this where things happen. It has mystified all of us, you stop growing even though you keep on eating. It turned turns out that has its origins in the Network Leading to the scaling of the Metabolic Rate being three courses and that being less than one. Sub linear behaviors the origin of why that stops growing and why the curve bends and stops. If anyone wants to discuss it later we can go into more detail. The point is, theres the universality of this so that the theory tells you how to rescale both the size and the time so that everybody grows in the same way. If you look at it to the right lens of rescaling the parameters of size and time, everybodys curve is dry by the theory is pretty good. Its just the animals and then you can put them all in there. You can even extend it to heres a quick summary of what i said. We have amazing nonlinear scaling laws that dominates them. They express which i do not stress and the scale, the bigger your the less energy is needed for cell to stay alive. Your cells work harder but less hard than your dogs. The pace of life also something i didnt emphasize get slower the bigger you are. Hearts be slower, we saw that. Blood diffuses among member rates slower and life gets stretched out in a predictable way so that you can rescale everything about the elephant in terms of its entire lifespan and its physiology to that of a mouse. That is india. Lastly, growth stops and you die. That all comes from the structure of the Network Leading to the sub linear scaling. I will take that go back to this idea of can we put it how scientists can understand it. The first question is our cities and companies complement one another the way a whale is a skilled updraft which is a skill that human being which is what you measure. The question is, is seattle just a scaleddown los angeles which is a scaleddown new york they dont look very much alike. Theres different histories, geographies and cultures. But with these organisms you can only check that by looking at data. You get data and look at that. I will show that a moment. One reason you might think there is a scaling is the cities in terms of their physicality are met with systems and lines and transport systems and networks, but i mentioned earlier that the critical part of the city is not the buildings in the infrastructure but the people. And so theres another network in cities that is us. The social network. The interactions between people and thats what misrepresents each note of this is a person, a line, the people there connected to. While familiar with and have these connections but two important points about this in the field of Network Series, this is how you represent things and its in the cyberspace basically. But heres a different picture, first are not just individuals, we are in modular groups. We have a family, jobs with groups and departments and so we have a marginal characteristic and that also has generic properties and also what is representative, it isnt the network that somehow stuck out in the cloud in cyberspace, our interactions have to take place some place. You cannot have interactions with yourself all to be in on the map and all the rest that stepping on facebook, instagram and the rest without being somewhere you may be waiting for a bus or waiting in the bathroom or somewhere but the you have to be somewhere. That represents what a city is, the interface of the same place and interaction. So, lets look at how city scale, will talk about the gas stations will talk about in the same way these gas stations versus population the size of the city and what you see is that there is good evidence of scaling in the data. What you see also is that that line is linear and its like linear meaning theres an economy of scale, the bigger you are as a city the last gas stations are needed per capital, not very surprising. What is surprising is the source of all of these are roughly speaking about 1. 85. What that means is you double the size of a city, you dont need twice as many gas stations you only need 85 more so could be 75 or 25 savings. So it turns out its interesting of itself. But like all european cities that look like this, if you look across im so european countries. If you look at countries across the group cloak, china japan chile, colombia you see the same behavior with the same slope. It turns out any infrastructure you look a whether the length of all the roads, the length of electrical lines in the water lines, whatever the infrastructures that you can measure it always skills in this way with the same slope and 50 savings anywhere in the world, any urban system or country in the world. So thats interesting that would occur. Just like we need to figure out where that comes from this is the biological physicality of the city. The more interesting part which im trying to emphasize is the socioeconomic part that involves human beings and that involves huge quantities that did not exist until humans evolved from being hunter gatherers and started forming communities and the ideas of wages, super creative people, professional people and what you see is an evidence of scaling but the important thing is that the slopes of these are now bigger than one. And roughly speaking their 1. 15. Bigger than one means the bigger the your the less per capita the more per capita. The bigger you are the higher the wages the more super creative people, the more policing crime, mo