Cspan programs are available at cspan. Org on our homepage or by searching the video library. Next a look at the first days of the Trump Presidency with Political Consultants and professors from university of southern california. They discussed Public Opinions based on polling from before and after the election. This is one hour and a half. Good morning. Im bob shrum, director of the Unruh Institute politics, on behalf of the institute the Political Science department, the door inside college of letters arts and sciences. Welcome to the next and this is a conferences that we are holding designed to bring together a lyrical actors, journalists and academics to discuss major issues and inflection points. We have two changes today. First anthony who was close to President Trump phoned yesterday to say he had been summoned to a meeting in washington. Ambassador who was in china when she accepted this conference put the date and time into her phone there. And so she showed up yesterday primed and ready for the conference. But we are ready to do it with an outstanding array of panelist. Our aim is to proceed as in all discomforts of in the spirit of president kennedy who called on americans to disentangle themselves from tourism and stereotype and never to enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought. Or is present reagan said, the ultimate determinant in the struggle will be a test of ideas. Thats why we are here and let me introduce our friend, my friend and colleague in this venture to moderate the first panel, professor dennis chong. [applause] good morning. Id like to add my welcome to all of you two usc 100 days days conference on the Trump Administration and Trump Presidency. Bob and i hosted a conference in late november after the election, and everyone who participate in that event i think was a bit stunned because of the unexpected out, here and now w were almost 100 days into the administration, and i think we are probably still a bit disoriented by the whirlwind of events that have been taking place from russia to syria, wiretapping, the travel ban, north korea, repeal the replacement of obamacare, the Supreme Court nomination, tax reform, the list goes on. We are going to today try to make sense of any of these things with help of an Amazing Group of experts from the Usc Dornsife College and beyond. In planning these conferences, our principal goal that bob and i have used is to bring together in dialogue the perspectives, insights of scholars and also those active in the work of public affairs. I think that is appropriate that this marriage of perspective is taken place in this particular venue which is known as town and gown. So let me provide you with the brief preview of todays events. We are going to have four Panel Discussions over the course of the day, to this morning and also to this afternoon separated by a lunch break. Our two morning panels are going to focus on the state of Public Opinion and nondomestic politics, and in the afternoon we will talk about the administrations actions in foreign affairs, and also discuss the future of the democratic and republican parties. At the end that each of our panel we will reserve time for the audience to be able to ask questions here so i wanted to invite all of you, i want to thank you again for being here, getting here on an Early Morning, for an Early Morning panels in los angeles this always a challenge i know. So thank you for being here and i fight you to sit back and enjoy the days discussions. Im going to start by monitoring the first panel. Thank you very much. [applause] will moderating. Good morning. This is panel one, is cant hear you. How is that . Okay. So the first panel is on politics and polling, and want to begin by introducing the panelists here. Going from left to right, to my far left is joel pollak, the Senior Editor at large and inhouse counsel at breitbart news. Hes also the author of how trump one, the inside story of a revolution. Angemarie alfaro is a professor of Political Science and gender studies at usc dornsife, and shes a renowned scholar on the topics of the intersection of race, gender, class and sexuality politics. Bill carrick is a democratic consultant and chief strategist for Dianne Feinstein and erika garcetti. To my right is arie kapteyn who is the executive director of the usc Dornsife Center for economic and social research. To his right is jill darling, the survey director for usc Dornsife Center for economic and social research. Arie and jill attract the usc dornsife daybreak paul, which is gained some notoriety for the november 2016 election for showing trump to be doing much better than a lot of other competitor polls. And lastly david lauter is the Washington Bureau chief at the Los Angeles Times and he works with and reports on the daybreak paul. So were going to begin with a presentation of the daybreak paul results at the 100 day mark, and joel and arie will be doing that for us. So, chill. My turn now. All right, good morning. So im going to start to sort of walk is through some of the findings from the polls that which is conducted and if all that we conducted in april, and then i will hand it off to arie to tell us all a bit more about some of the indepth findings. So im going to stay seated here because its a little hard to see this from the dais that its hard for me to see it here, too. Anyway, just as an introduction, the surveys that we conducted were among respondents who were in a National Internet panel that we maintain at the center for economic and social research. Its a probabilitybased panel. We ask questions of them before the election, in a preelection polling, and then we did followup surveys in january, february, march and april. And some of, a cup of the questions we talk about today and were asked over time. Mostly what we will be looking at is the post Election Results over the last two months when we polled in march and april. We were interested mainly really in looking into rather than sort of investigating highlevel source rates numbers that have the numbers are probably going to really sort of did you right now, we are really very interested in diving a little deeper and look at some of the underlying reasons for what we are saying and trying to get a little more indepth. Thats an ongoing project and this is an opening salvo in that. So to start with basically there is still the partisan divide that we saw before the election continues to persist after the election in the sense that people who voted for donald trump, and at all of these slides thats going to be designated in red as is now traditional, and people who voted for Hillary Clinton are the blue bars in these charts. You can see when you ask about just this very general question that pollsters like to ask because its pretty useful, and it doesnt always at this time very much tracks this partisan divide. We see theres a lot of optimism being expressed here by trump voters and opposite feeling among people who voted for Hillary Clinton. Ill talk about thirdparty voters a little bit later on, so right now i we going through this divide and talk about how we really are seeing eye country where two groups of people are seeing things very differently from one another. This is talking about, we asked them to tell us about how they saw things improving or whether they were getting worse or staying the same over the next 12 months in a variety of issues that we asked about. You can see that for this, this is expecting improvement. Theres sort of guarded optimism among trump voters for i cant see the list from her so let me just get it off my page here so i can tell you exactly what those are. The list that we asked about where the rights of minorities and women, individual freedoms, threat of terrorism, jobs and unemployment, health care and healthcare reform, Race Relations in the environment. Theres quite a bit of optimism among trump voters about jobs and employment, a small amount among clinton voters as well. You can see this is very different from the response that we got from the clinton voters, and this is now the percent is that things are going to get worse. And so rather than even thinking things are going to stay the same, you can see clinton voters really feeling like a month ahead, and were talking about the shortterm, twelvemonth outlook, looks pretty bad. There is a sort of guarded sense of, i dont know if its optimism, but i would say the plurality of who thought things would at least in the same or get better, the majority think that its going to get same or better about employment, perhaps looking towards Infrastructure Spending in that category. We also asked them to say whether or not they would attribute a series of positive characteristics to trump, and those were keeping promises, speaking for people like me, inspiring confidence, bringing needed change to washington, d. C. , representing american values, if his ethical and trustworthy, and basis policy of facts and good data. As you can see he had extremely high levels of endorsement among his own voters, and very low endorsement among clinton voters. So once again of view of the president that is just strikingly different from one another. This extensive than to the deep divisions that we see when you write, rating his job as president , where once again we pretty much equal levels of approval and disapproval, depending on whether in who they voted in the election. This is neither category which is neither approve or disapprove was much higher a month ago. We saw some consolidation across year, and particularly among trump voters, that trump voters were maybe waiting to see what the present with you over time moved into the category of approval just ruled over the last month. So we also asked about keeping promises. Thats one of the themes that is come up around 100 days mark is, has he accomplished what he said he would do. And people who voted for donald trump, the majority, 81 , thought that he accomplished as much or more than he said he would do. You can see that the majority of clinton voters disagreed with that, but 20 , one in five said that he had at least accomplished as much as he said he would do. So theres a certain amount of giving trump some credit for at least working towards what he said he would do, and perhaps not holding him responsible among his supporters for not accomplishing some of these sort of largescale things that he said, they can see him working towards. In sort of trying to get at the idea about whether there was a difference between whether people like him personally and approve of his policies, we asked that question spread out this way. Did they like him personally and or like or dislike him personally and or approve of his policies. And we also gave them an out and not being sure about his policy. As you can see we had a High Percentage of, but not i cant even see that number at the dont remember it off the top of my head. Was that fiftythree. Thank you. 53 who said of republicans who said that they like him and approve of his policies. So not overwhelmingly. And another 19 , one in five come who said they like him, they are not sure about his policies. Again there is a subset of wait and see. Another chunk 17 who said they dislike him personally but approve of his policies. And, of course, we did see some of that in the preelection polling as well that people were saying there were voting for him based on issues rather than personality. The feeling among clinton supporters of course seven out of ten this like him, disapprove, and 20 said that they dislike them and they werent sure yet about his policies. We had to wait and see. And so we dont have a lot of optimism among the thirdparty voters either. 59 disc approved disapproved of the job yesterday. He had a high proportion saying he is on the wrong track. Disliking trump and being not sure about his policies, and predicting things, theres a certain amount of optimism but not a lot, and predicting things would get better in jobs and employment. 56 think it is staying the same. We didnt see much optimism about things Getting Better in the future among this group. And when you see is almost exact division between people who voted for clinton and voted for trump, the reason for overall low ratings that youre seeing in other surveys that we saw in hours for approval and right track and optimism about the future really its tipping the balance by the folks who voted for third parties, the independence, people who didnt actually vote in the election. Though we are not showing here. We did see some small changes since march as i mentioned earlier among Trump Supporters. We had a ten point increase among trump voters that brought them further into the job approval category, and we saw some improvement among, or not Much Movement among clinton and thirdparty voters. We saw sort of an interesting effect, too, that it was sort of more detectable in terms of downward ripples in positive attributes for trump among his supporters, people feeling like they were not as enthusiastically endorsing that he had kept his promises, that is bringing needed change, perhaps because of the blockages that were going on. But on the other hand, quite a bit of the Movement Towards approval from neutrality was among people the other group of people who really did see him as keeping his promises and bringing needed change pics of that sort of a division among that group of trump voters as well. We have seen, you know, that in many ways really opinions have changed little. We still have the postelection era that generally you have a honeymoon. For president s who, you know, where you have support from both sides or at least sort of a positive level of waiting and seen. And in this case because of the rhetoric that weve had since the election at all of the event set up got on were seen this persistence. And arie will take it from your aunt tells a little bit more about some of what has gone on. Thank you. So im going to show you some more red and white, red and blue bars, i think thats in an age of what to do today. I will start with, i would say what, brown and yellow. We have done this poll for quite a while, and the underlying data of the panel has been around for about three or four years. Sometimes i will talk about things we know from a few years ago and then finally i will talk about what we found just a few weeks ago. One of the things we as the number of time start in august was how happy would you be when Hillary Clinton with the president and how happy would you be if donald trump would be president. It seems as you know trump got elected a modicum to talk about trump. If you look at august, and you see that, quite a bit chunk of the respondents said they would really be very unhappy if trump were president. President. So these are the people who gave as it will and then a smaller number said they would actually be quite happy if trump are were present. You dont see much change between august and october. But right after the election use quite a bit of change. Use the people who thought it would be really that if trump with the president , a drop from 40 to 30. The number of people say they would be very happy is going to. We dont know why this is but you can certainly imagine how this happens. On wednesday at the election you always sort of established trump would be present and you wake up and hes actually president. You may decide the sky has a fallen and bigger life is at that as you thought. Thats an interpretation. We dont know quite what happened. If you look after that, you look at the brown bars are again people to be very unhappy. After the election really not much of change pics of the people didnt like the notion that he would be president , that number hasnt really changed. What udc theyll is a yellow bar seems to be going down a little bit. You see a bit of slipping in support for trump. You can also look at this in a different way. So what you do here is we look at just the average score on the zero to ten scale. People can give a number between zero and ten, zero is that and ten is very good, and would break it down for who they voted for and you see that among the trump voters, there is a bit of a slippage. On the zero to ten scale about threequarters of the point on average that the board has gone down. Then for the others, the clinton voters, theres really no change. Among johnson voters may be a little more and then stein of the list. My invitation will be theres not that much to change. As noted would look at that because we also asked people if the election were today it would you vote for tax what you find is that the vast majority of the trump voters say they would vote for him again. As a matter of fact, so by the way, you may have noticed, we are looking at [inaudible] have to remember its in there. What you see is actually the a number of people who would say that they would vote for clinton is a little less than the people who say they would vote for trump again. In many ways opinions havent really changed that much. People are pretty much in the preferences, and theres a movement from people who voted for johnson or stein two other candidates. One of the things that jill talked about all of it optimism and pessimism is we can look at this and a slight edge of the way also. As i mentioned the respondents we have come weve had them for a number of years. What are the things we as quite a while ago we would ask them, what is your Current Situation and to think its going to be better next year . This was not one or two years ago we asked everyone but way before the election, what you see there is that the clinton voters, they were deathly optimistic that the financial future and the trump voters.