They will discuss the policy options and efforts. Today, we are very fortunate to have a Diverse Group of individuals. Joined great honor to be today. I want to recognize the u. S. Government official on the panel today, jonathan winer. He took time out of his very busy schedule to be here. It is always a pleasure to do panels with Charles Lister and carnegies having a for conversation that will be wideranging and very informative. Thanks to our moderator who was a libya expert in his own right. He will be introducing the panel running the discussion. He is a frequent commentator on north african and gold affairs. During his diplomatic career, he served as secretary of days state. He was also united ambassador to united arab emirates. He knows north africa well. David, i would like to hand over the panel to you. David there are so many things we can talk about regarding libya. This particular program is going to focus on what the socalled Islamic State is up to in libya. Although it has wrongfully that name is islamic and does not function as is state, i am going to refer to daesh. Anish contradict the president of the United States il. Calls it i sold is represented by groups as well and others substate armed groups that often practice terrorism. Complexitiess the and he brings a strong grasp to the theory and practice of terrorism. There are filled out biographies in the sheet you have received. He brings that particular perspective to this panel and the other panelists have perspectives that will be useful in forming a composite view of the problem. Wide experience in military affairs. He knows libya well. He served as attache to the consulate in libya. The complexities of libyan armed groups. He is the charge of the affairs for libyans in washington. A big voice for the libyan people. She is a patriot and was involved in libyan Civil Society. She responded to her countries call by accepting senior positions in the ministries of education prior to her current assignment. Jonathan winer is secretary kerrys special emissary for libya. He was a key member of kerrys staff when john kerry was the chairman of the Foreign Relations committee. He performed a number of jobs that might be called inkless because they were really touchy issues. He showed himself able to apply the very broad pencils of Foreign Policy to specific circumstances. Has beennt assignment something he has been doing for 2. 5 years. It has made him very aware of the interest to libyas arab neighbors as well as the various crosscurrents. That is the order on which im going to ask our speakers to address issues for about eight minutes. Then i will ask a few questions and we may have a bit of an interchange before we open it up to questions from the audience. We will start with charles lester. Good afternoon everyone. David, thank you very much for that kind introduction. Seeing as i have eight minutes im going to fly straight into my discussion points. I am not a libya expert per se. Im going to present more of a big picture look. Since isiss declaration of a late junecaliphate in 2014. It has thought to become an international movement. Libya has become its most effortst, secondary outside of iraq. It has done so by exploiting their instability and failures. Lean down. Own this is a model of exploiting existing divisions that isis used to its own advantage in syria and iraq. To entere, isis aims into areas where there are already expensive and intense , where there are existing social structures. This is exactly the same model it entered into syria into 2013. Sul. Xploited the city of mo there is a variety of open Source Information that talks about how isis learned local dynamics. Tribal all of the leaders, a new all of their dirty histories. How certain tribes were against other tribes. Use it to its advantage. This learning the lay of the land is something isis has been very well practiced in and it was the key to its entrance into the capital of libya today. What does isis represent in libya today . Vary. Stimates manpowers 70 of its is made up of nonlibyan fighters. To museums have become extremely significant. Lot ofthere is a information existing today about unisians have left syria and iraq to bolster the presence in libya. They have at least half a dozen to bolster the senior command structure. It is of strategic importance to isis is objectives. The organization is coming under pressure in syria and iraq. 36,000 fighters. They controlled territory along the Central Coast in libya. Operationally, isis have the capacity to reach the tunisian border. They can go as far west as benghazi. By a senior isis official who came from iraq to bolster isiss leadership in libya. Demonstrated a capacity for very fast growth. The estimate in november was 2000 fighters to their ranks in libya. Suggests aboutte 6000. That is at least doubling of manpower under its command in the last 67 months. Multiple Training Camps including Training Camps for children. Clearly, it is trying to be in libya for the long haul. Its de facto capital in libya. Inbegan as is organization 2014 exploiting the kind of preexisting social divisions and Political Divisions. Im sure my esteemed libya panelists will be able to talk about in more detail than i but in particular, it was gaddafis hometown. Gonegaddafi loyalists had back to after the fall of the gaddafi regime. Ofwas under the control these militias. Isis used the fact that there were individuals and other militias accused of being loyal their own to advantage. Many of those individuals now fight for isis. You can use a similar analogy to talk about how isis has exploited former saddam area officials in iraq. This preexisting divisions and tensions they have used to their own advantage. It is extremely harsh. Over, its isis took imposed a city charter. This is something they did in r aqqa and mosul. It lays out a full approach to how civilians are expected to behave. Women are subject to many regulations and men have similar regulations to the length of their trousers. Prisonse three depending on the magnitude of your alleged crime. Behavioral police were established. Onlynet is now restricted to internet cafes run by isis. The acquisition of outside information is particularly restricted unless one is able to travel outside of the city. There is little evidence of far earningst that isis is a lot of money. All of this underlines the exact same model isis has used to control through fear populations under its influence. , i wouldreason advocate that in this current phase not rushing. Discussions to rapidly bring the fight to isis in libya through local forces and appointment of special forces from the u. S. And france and the u. K. Isis will exploit this. Be vettedters need to and under a single command. We are not anywhere near that position as of now. I would advocate a let them rot strategy in the meantime. Except the fact that people are not happy under isis control. There are people willing to be but overs control time, rosenman will continue to grow. This is something we have seen in syria and iraq. The egyptian sinai are showing particular tendencies. On betterd be spent uniting the political structure in libya after the december 2015 agreement. , uniting thetly east and west structures under the current government that was agreed to in december 2015. Unless as two forces unite, i can say with significant certainty that isis will exploit those two divisions. It will devote resources to doing so. On terms of the influx of rep weaponry, it has not done a lot of good. Various outsiders have been sending weapons. Carriedw a discussion out last week about finding a way out in order to send to acquire armed forces on the ground. Again, i would urge caution. Until there is a unified structure and forces have been sufficiently vetted and trained and significantly linked up with forces, i would hesitate to send in loud influxes of weaponry. We have learned many lessons syria011 and 2012 from that should be learned in a place like libya today. More we there is plenty can discuss with the q a. I hope that i have made some sense. David thank you charles. [applause] someed 30 seconds to make technical adjustments up here. Up for get the mic level people in the back of the room. Thank you so much. Thank you to the middle east institute for that invitation. What an introduction. Somethingi will find new to say. From someustrate recent trends have made to libya. When we look at the Islamic State, we have to understand this fusion between foreign and indigenous elements. There is a long legacy of jihad is him that it is built upon. We are seeing an evolution of jihadism in libya. This is all being played out over the last 23 years. Represents thete ascendancy of one particular strain. Ofre are not other strains it pushing back. Of of it. Nerations ofres the post2011 generation that was radicalized by the syria war. There are keynotes for jihadism. I would argue also that when it arrived, there was an infrastructure that was already in place. Much of the Islamic State development has been this coopting of that. What were the catalyst . The syrian war was huge. Some of them just wanted to volunteer and fight. With the ascendancy of the Islamic State in syria, some of them defected over. Others came back. It was this nucleus of Islamic State and libyan fighters that came back that implanted the Organization First in darn it. Darna. Point is the Political Division of libya that was fundamental in giving the space for Islamic State to assert itself. These factions were so busy fighting each other and using isis to demonize their opponents. Meanwhile, the Islamic State is growing. The islamicou have state investing in libya through emissaries and advisers. Technical advisors, sharia courts, many of these are foreign. You also had the foreign fighter influx. Islamic state made a concerted effort to direct foreign fighters towards africa and in general. Dont come to syria and iraq, libya. When i was in benghazi with the libyan army forces, they said to me that the snipers and suicide bombers were all for and that they were facing. When we look at countering those on the next day really understand the case by case basis. Andr roots are different different places. That requires a tailormade approach in all of these areas. Its reputation is well known. The key thing there is that it ran up against this barrier of an older generation of al qaeda that pushes out. Also the tribal element. The very factionalism that allows the Islamic State to assert itself into libya is also a buffer. Cook in benghazi, the Islamic State inserted itself into a militant insurgents and flipped many of the antisharia entities. It enjoyed support from those social fabrics of neighborhoods under assault. It was bolstered by foreigners coming in from abroad and by boat. Insert the main stronghold. The infrastructure proves so critical. Iny really played a role flipping the progadhafi tribes that were on the outside. That is what the Islamic State has really played upon. This notion that you are the losers in the new order and we can protect you. Thatnot going to say entire tribes are split. It is often a very personalized choices. Better the hell of Islamic State than the paradise of this. The Islamic State of peers to be moving south towards tripoli. The dynamics there are more financial. There are families that have had the longtime affiliation with jihaidsm. What is their strategy right now . I would argue it is one of consolidation and disruption, to consolidate their hold and to cut off oil revenues. You saw this in the attacks on police training. To peel away the losers of the new orders. What are the disgruntled youth that we can peel away . The key challenges that we have. The country is divided, there is no central chain of command. The great risk that the u. S. Has is identifying local partners and militias. That could further fracture of the country and reduce incentives for reconciliation. Reinforcerorism must the building of governance. There is the enormous challenges of rebuilding the police. There should be a platform to do that. There are three options. Directed air. Rn this is untenable. A localthere has to be element. The second option is the west and this isnablers fraud with risks. What kind of government replaces this . Is the westestion supporting a libyan led government through a unit type united force. [applause] that was a very timely introduction for you. It might be too short. Special thanks to the middle east institute for posting this discussion. This is a very important topic to my country. Libby is not a dangerous turning and im going to be talking about a different aspect. What we think is a different perspective on defeating isis and libya. Indeed any is economic crisis with a severe cash shortage and desperate need of humanitarian aid. This is the result of domestic complicated political and economic that resulted in divisions and complex. Alone willssistance not be enough to defeat isis. Libyans will defeat terrorism only through addressing domestic drivers of instability. The u. S. And International Community should help libya with stabilization including their economy. Decentralization of powers as well. The most Effective Response to the rise of isis in libya is the construction of an accountable libyan state with an Effective Security sector. The war against isis will be endless in libya. This is not to say that nothing can be done against isis and libya in the short term. The antiisis fight could strengthen the political process and vice versa. Nowinstance, efforts right can both help the security situation and strengthen the political process. Moreover, Libyan Governments supported and helped the central bank and government pushed back against the demands and put constraints on spending on the salaries. Militias should be dismantled. It is also essential for the government to reconcile with the forces dominate in eastern libya. The National Community should help in devising a proposal for reconciliation and acknowledging army inas national their role in defeating terrorist forces in the north. The u. S. And the International Community should support libya through a different policy aspect. It is, the her economic crisis should come first. It will further exasperate the humanitarian crisis. Second, political conciliation is crucial for making the institutions work and International Partners should react on international drivers. Address thelp expressing concerns in libya. The idea it should focus on supporting government to build its forces and control its borders. Failed beforehas. Nd i was witness to that since libyas insecurity is the of complex interactions between complicated economic factors. In conclusion, the u. S. And the International Community should not see libya through counterterrorism and should not take up purely technical approach only on arming and building up equipment. They are important but in order to achieve tangible results, the partnership should help the new government tackle economic up reconciliation and develop functioning institutions so it can result the impact support offered by the International Community. Whatever issorb offered by the International Community. This is more important now than ever. Thank you. [applause] high, im jonathan winer. There is an enormous amount of wisdom already expressed. I agree with pretty much everything. We should not be too abstract about what we are facing. Hours, we try to regain critical territory. They grabbed back some critical tripoliy which lead to and to the south. In return, they equipped a big and killede vehicle with its been reported as three dozen libyan soldiers. This battle between libyans and daesh. Libya believes in a country and daesh believes in itself. It offers a fantasy vision of gold, glory, girls and guns. It can be attractive to immature men. This battle being fought right thati had written down chaos is the enemy. Is an enemy and a big enemy. Chaos is the enemy. Daesh feeds on chaos. If you want to get and defeat daesh, you have to address the factors. That is where our policy has to be based on at its core. Our broad strategic interest in libya is to support a unified libya, not one that gets divided into parts with an accountable government, not people self proclaiming. That was the way gaddafi ruled on behalf of the people for 42 years. It doesnt work then or now. The u. S. Strategy you have had al qaeda and two different altria groups. When you have under governed space, it is a greater opportunity for bad guys to make mischief. Luckily libyans do not tend to like foreigners of any kind telling them what to do. Develop antibodies. Quickly. That is why im betting on libya and libyans to win, not daesh. Approach is that we are tied very closely to support the government. Need a stablens government to close the security vacuum. Security first or economy first . It is hard to get people to invest in a country where security is a disaster. It washington, d. C. Had no international presence, we would be a much poorer praise. Poorer place. Our economy would be in an economic shambles. Having everyone leave libya has been bad for libya. You have to get enough security back in seeking get participants in the economy. I learnede key things in talking to people at the imf what bya, i said reforms can we put in place . They said there is not anything you can do. Its libby is not pumping oil, you cannot be successful. Is not quite a hundred close to. Were not can it be able to get to all four sections. 1 10 of the price of oil was one fourth of what it used to be. It doesnt work. Then you will have real chaos. The current economic problems and the security conditions are intimately linked with the political. We keep looking at security and what were going to do about daesh. We have had two so far of against terrorists. Done training and equipping the libyans in the past. Were going to offer more. Weve secured a successful communique agreement earlier this week. It everyies including in the region. All are agreeing on the same thing. Exemption from the arms embargo to take on terrorists. Which we support and will probably participate in if the libyans assess. We move ahead to try and build national structures. Some of that crisis is hoarding. We need to get through it. We have to get libyans hope that there is a future through government and governance. We have to get the next aneration of libyans Getting Better ball. Hope with incoming generations that have fresh ideas. Own believe in their country. U. S. Policy is founded on the premise on one government, not mold will government. Reasonable states, everyone who has had clients and proxies. Rather than fighting sectarian battles and resources being shared on a national level. West,r you are east, south you have a stake in the government. It is very simple on the end. If you stick with those principles, you may begin to make some process. It will begin to take hold. Thank you. [applause] david thanks to all of our panelists. Are you hearing me well in the back . Ok. I am going to ask a question of each one of hours he cares. Them to question one another a little bit. With Charles Lister. Sound like ae it fun place for libyans to be living. Cant a place where daesh feel safe . It is very close to the assets of nato countries. Actionse these libyan that have been discussed quite well. They threatened him in one way or another. This as aally see place where they can build a caliphate . The honest answer is i am not convinced that it is the best that they have for now. I am enough of a libya expert but from what i can see, they have made attempts to go further south. They are acquiring foreign further into the african continent. I think it is going to be there bastion. I have little doubt that there is going to be a fight for the city at some point. Being led byo commanders who have come from syria and iraq. So as to prolong it as long as possible. After that is what we have to wait and see. I am think its convinced the coincidence for their capacity to spill over into two new sierra. Tunisia. Human rights watch released a report saying they have documented 49 executions. That election quite a low number for isis. I dont think it is a quincy is that we have seen that look number. Are aware of the potential dangers they have there. If they feel under pressure, we see more spectacular attacks. We will see more mass executions. That city building. David fred, let me ask you to pick up on that. How successful can daesh be in building the kind of quasistate in turkey that it has and syria . After all, there has got to be a lot of competition. I just question how much in the way of financial reserves could they bring to bear in trying to attract libyans and other fighters. I realize there is a Big Reservoir of potential fighters elsewhere in africa and tunisia and so on. What are the practical and hownts on daesh would it be possible for the combination of the libyan and International Partners to compete with them . There is a lot there. You have answered it. They are not able to replicate the state building function they have elsewhere because they lack revenue streams. Intoare not able to tap this disenchantment. Are these isolated pockets that they have implanted themselves. They have been pushed out. It is also a buffer. It has allow them to grow. Capable of great disruption. Flow plot attacks abroad. Was preemptive. They saw something covering coming. The question on what they can do. This comes as inclusive governance. Something has to come after isis. There has to be a rule of law. To substitute one extremist threat to another. It is absolutely critical that we received cautiously and methodically. Said, if things oftinue to stagnate in terms reestablishing stability in libya and if as the weather the mediterranean, we have another wave of people europe. Cross towards with all the potential for terrorist coming along with them , which countries would be most to militarycal efforts to bolster and dealing with the Security Problems . Which countries feel most threatened . Which countries are likely to come forward with some kind of military assets. You sort of answered it. The European Countries that are , the italians have kind of backed off. That the forces are already on the ground. There is a huge well among the european powers and i think it is a matter of coordinating those efforts. They are not working across purposes. Making sure that countries to have these capabilities, italians have a Training Mission that could be an official to what libya needs. The u. S. Has certain capabilities. To learn the lessons of our past training failures. We did the training before there was anything to absorb the trainees. You trained in bunch of soldiers and they came back to militias. You need to make sure youre not just training one particular town or tried. David you are not suggesting that we just dont some military ther one in their this newly found the Libyan Government. That . I say david no but how much training for themto be required to be absorbed. We know from past experiences. How well do we do in iraq when you train at counterterrorism at technicalnot capacity only. You have to have political unity. It is a long horizon. Were looking at a very long time. We have this immediate isis that. We need to be looking at the long game. It is going to take a long time. Up on that with you. They have indicated support for lifting the arms embargo on sales of military equipment to the government. Through thet gets Un Security Council and i understand it will take us Un Security Council vote. I dont know what russia might do at this stage. Assuming there is a Un Security Council. Is your government also going to request specific assistance in terms of training its forces and how would that be organized. On territory. Have you form of the armed forces starting from where you are now. It is not an easy question. Let me tell you something. Among the countries where they had proposed to train some soldiers, libyan to create aproposal nucleus of the national army. The idea was to train them are broad. Theailed bigtime because bedding was inappropriate. The young people were taking two different countries. Critical thing ande how can you train expect the soldiers to come back. It failed because the vetting failed. We did not have a propers strong interests institution. They were creating committees to that parallel institutions. You that, let me tell we have a nucleus of an army. We have a lot of professionals all over the country. We have many different ranks. Existed during this time. Big massive movement. This was when the camps were it bigd the country had amount of arms. Those links are available. They are there. This is what is starting to happen. They are already working with these people in tripoli. Sometimes they had recruited civilians. It is not traditional military fight. Traditional classic confrontation. It is very complicated and very devastating. It should depend on intelligence and Central Forces and not by a means of heavy artillery. To some that up, we have the nucleus of an army in libya. We have a huge number of trained soldiers. We have trained many and now we are in a. Where they are technocrats. They should come back. They are already there and we should build on it. Capacity build their with lifting the arms embargo. We have to be very careful here because we need to assess what we have already. We need to make sure it is falling in the right hands. We need to solve the problem of the militia and i spoke about that earlier. Wantingrnment has to be andesist the pressures their desire to continue. We do not want to go back to square one. We need to convince these young people and i wished many times this would be an one of our resolutions that it is the duty of the government to support us on that. They should be given incentives. Point can we see a proper army being formed and assessing what we have and what is needed. I think it will be prepared at that point. They will be prepared to make its proper request. David thank you for that. I want to apologize for jumping orderhe well considered in which you presented the issues that this government have to face. You said in your prepared remarks that security coding come first. Couldnt come first. You had to start with the economy getting going. I want to recognize that you had a wellthoughtout approach to that. I do not mean to distort your views on military preparedness. You did that extremely well. Military ding the topic but you did that extremely well, thank you. To you , i want to come last here. Noting that some of the things indicating, the u. S. Government indicated following to be a very me successful meeting in vienna, as that we were going to be prepared to be quite forthcoming in support of a wide range of support for the Libyan Government of National Accord. If they , saying that would form themselves up as a partner, we would be there to with them. But i really wonder to what going to have the necessary level of support from the congress of the United States, which hasnt shown itself to be notably enthusiastic for sometimes for all the things that need to what extent do we more support and, the United States particularly, even though there were, as you noted, all the governments in the region, vienna, in the past, its been my impression, that we havent had wholehearted support for the idea of the International Community getting behind a ingle government, and i wonder to what degree this issue needs on the agenda of our relations with egypt, for making in terms of certain that the International Community carries out the kind highminded pledges it made in vienna. Jonathan thank you very much, ambassad ambassador. We were talking libya all week last week. Probably much of the week last before. D the week you forget when you have conversation after conversation another. Getting alignment among all the regional players, as well as the european players, has been at the core of our policy for the years. Veral libya cant afford to get divided up by people with different interests fighting with one another. Thats part of what leads to chaos. If youve got one Regional State and leads to one player another Regional State supporting a different player, thats not going to work well libya, and i think everybody understands that. Emirates, ted arab arabia, nigerria, sudan, i hope have arent missed any north African Regional i did miss one, as well as united kingdom, germany, france, spain, european union, african union, all signed the this, which was government of the National Accord. Where i think about it, its a bit like water hydraulics, and all kinds of hydraulics. You cant predict where the individual particle will go, towards r is falling something. Thats the chaos theory, right. Trench, you ig a know most of the water will go through that trench. More you dig the channel, of the water goes through and you coat the channel and start put nothing filt ers and a variety of things to get the water looking good and useful for more purposes. So what were doing with the governor of National Accord is channel for ate a National Unity and reconciliation and building for libyas needs and building enough stability so the economy an come back, pump oil, which libya needs for libyans, distribute the wealth fairly, equitably in a way that brings people in, and take advantage of libyas Natural Resources to rebuild the country. Thats what were trying to do. Nd i think weve made a lot of progress. Theres still a lot of problems, but the more progress we make, will be able to take on as the vast, vast, vast libyanses want to do, and reduce it and push it out. Its happening already. , u see fighting against them fighting against them in benghazi. Like nothing is happening to push them back. Heyre going to have less territory again. This is not a native phenomenon. Iraqisyria phenomenon transplanted into libya, which elements. Ative some of whom said we dont want them. We had extremism a long time. We didnt like being told what to do by foreign extremists, and kicked them out. So the libyans are difficult. Shes not difficult. Shes very sensible, dynamic, and easy to work with. Her. Ove working with but libyans overall can be quite fractious. So carving that channel in a way that theyre going to say this is good is what were trying to do, and we cant predict where our individual draw folk are if its going d to even though its going to take time, which it is, and it will. Thank you. David thank you. Im going to be willing to take some questions from the so raise your hands. Ive already seen a few of you with your hands up. Will be more e questioners than im able to get to. When i call on somebody, would you, number 1, introduce yourself as to your name and affiliation. Number 2, ask a question. Dont make a statement. Keep it short. Question mark. All right . Middle tart in the there, jason. And wait until you get the microphone, please. Audience always a pleasure to panel. Ch an allstar im jason mack, founder of a web libya. Bout i agree with the broad outlines of the panel. Isis is no doubt a symptom of he malities of libyas implosion plus 2011 and not the ause, and of course as charles started off saying and fred ommented, without a bona fide antiisis coalition, it will be impossible to make real gains or sustainable gains. In a way tion is, following up on davids last actors who se support other factions, such as hopkar in the east, or others who dont want to be part coalition, isis ts all well and signed communiques. What can be done concretely on sanctions and other areas. What are concrete proposals and i ask this of the whole panel, people fall into line, both regional actors and s on the groundia into the different channels you described. You start by n, addressing that and ill ask other members of the panel to they have particular comments. Jonathan well start with sanctions. Intended to e respond to global and National Security threats of various inds and have to be legally justified. Of e sanctioned the speaker the parliament of the governor f libya we recognized prior to the gna. After he undertook a series of activities, which included violence l threats of and intimidation when the to support thedy governor of National Accord, not majority but super majority. We prevented it from happening. Kalifa tioned him and grail who was sanctioned to be inflict violence on anyone who participated in core of nors National Entry into tripoli. After the sanctions, he wound up leaving town. He lost protection and financial resources. He central bank channelled all the s authority to government of National Accord and ceased responding to of the from either legacy governments, so that was a very profound economic shift, which im sure had its impact. Recently, there was an effort to sell oil illicitly by the selfproclaimed Eastern National oil company. Selfproclaimed because it was supported by the house of epresentatives, but not responding to the government of. Ational accord u. N. , it issued by the the ships captain cooperated, unloaded, and was he oil was no long er susceptible to diversion. We were very grateful, collective, all of us for the Libyan Government to help. Global responsibility. Unified global approach. All u. N. Security Council Members said yes. Not just the typical three but the full five, fully cooperated with one another, just as russia and china participated, should have mentioned that, participated in the vienna communique. Very important to have all five five pu nd have all pulling together on behalf of the same goals. We worked very hard to consult with russia and china as we go along. Russia had complaints about how all of us came to be. A lot goes into that history. They have noting that them and that alignment there is tremendously important, too. Happened hat, what next . Narc say they n would move out because they have a right to . They should. Heard there was a possibility that the participants might wind up not ng sanctioned as well, just the individuals. I dont know whether that had an impact on them or not. I do know that this was a deal cut in the last 48 hours between narc and the western narc. Narc agrees to the National Government authority, then they are. Heres reconciliation, integration and action with a mixture of sanctions and reconciliation. Do we want to sanction anybody . We dont want to sanction anybody. To have tont libyans be told what to do by us or anybody else. If theyre not coming together and unifying, you have to continue to carve that channel. Ts a signalling device and a tool to get people in the right erritory and to back off whenever you can. Thank you. David lets get a microphone to the gentleman on the right. Audience daniel from johns hopkins. Question, swered my g. N. A. Degree does the control things, the investment authorities, the central bank, gree has any progress been made on unifying the parliaments . Where are we in this process . And i would add to what degree is there a connection between g. N. A. And the local governments that still exist . Gentleman in the fourth row back there. Its a work in progress, of course. The central bank that controls all foreign exchange, all of it, based in tripoli, exists under at this point the authority of g. N. A. And undertakes no activities that arent in lignment with the policies and approach of the g. N. A. He Central Banks have some independence but its still in aligned. The role to the east is hard to assess. Last week when i read in the wall street journal, they hired safe ck tore cracker to break into a safe, qadaffis face, it would reduce the value to libyan coin collectors. Disturbing. T was i thought when they broke into safes, it only happened in movies, but it was being discussed in libya right now by purports to be a bank governor. Disturbing. Large amounts of currency being printed to be imported into libya. I dont know whether those are true or not. Very disturbing. Its a work in progress. Libyan authority has said well support and back the g. N. A. And most of the money is tied up still anyway and which is a good thing. The National Oil Company as we just discussed. Its a work in progress. Ts a channel being carved, as it were. In terms of the localities, the accords of National Ability to directly control things is quite limited but most of the times, cities in the United States dont take their direction from president obama and Vice President biden. About their work under existing arrangements. Us take guidance from the top offices of our system its how the kind of works. The question is, whos exercising authority and jurisdiction where . Said twice and ill say a third time and try not to repeat a fourth time, its a work in progress and hard to say, but if people agree to accept the authority of something, then the authority is accepted. So the process is as much of a estate of mind and a political g else. It is anythin what has to happen over the next governor of he National Accord has to use authority wisely, working with particular, ank in to procure sufficient liquidity ground, esources on the currency on the ground and purchasing power, things like layers of credit to get things imported so theres enough stuff so, yeah, or ramadan our needs are being taken care of properly. Most important immediate thing they have to do, and theyre working on it, and i people that e theres going to be a Real Congress over the next couple of weeks just in time, and another people tearing their hair out saying its not enough and theyll need more emergency measures. Focused on it . Yes. Its absolutely essential. Thank you. David its been a great discussion by a couple of our couscousand t sanctions, i appreciate. One more to ask to get question out here at least from the gentleman here. Go ahead. Audience thank you very much the presentation. Im Eric Goldstein from human rights watch. Of course isis is awful but since 2011 the various militia responsible been for far more abuses. Those who are talking about a listing of the arms embargo, assure us that there vetting, g, any member hear from of the panel who can explain how the vetting will be credible, who has the t, intelligence to ensure that the arms dont go into the wrong hands. Thank you. David wafa bugaig his was involved with the Civil Society before and i think shes in a great position to answer this question. I will vil society, answer it maybe with my capacity in Foreign Affairs before. This is what i mentioned should not aid we rush, and its not as simple as kosher, d we have to be and i iterated that. Lifting armsdea of mbargo and just importing arms right now, we need to assess what we have. Assess our legitimate forces that are going to use make sure ed to that we have to make sure ts not going to fall in other hands, and i guess my colleagues and i lso agree with me, heard him mention this, we should not rush into such an issue. We need to organize ourselves going to take what, wheres it going to go, therwise and i pointed out previously, that we had a huge amount of arms and theres a lot of smuggling. Theres a lot of organized crime, smuggling arms, stealing country, and e the besides isis, you know, huge organized Crime Network in the country, and a huge amount of arms going in and out. So we need to be kosher, and i think mean, this is going to help. Thanks. David thank you. Id like to take yeah, let me take one more question from the middle, and then im going to ask all four members of a panel to leave us with final thought, one or two entences, what the takeaway from the program should be in their mind. Go ahead, maam. Kadlick. I am amanda can you hear me now . Okay. My name is amanda kadlick with rand. About tion is coordination among international actors, sort of carrying on from jason said about communique s nice, but beyond that, there needs to be some sort of concrete measures. Coordination among u. S. Allies, like italy, because from k. What it seems, is that each actor or each country has its own plan in place for what its doing on the ground in terms of its special forces operations, and relationshipbuilding. The degree of communication among those ctors, and are they communicating in terms of they igence sharing, do have individual relationships that are different on the then from there, do you trust that the g. N. A. Is ctually a body that will provide the kind of factual information that youre looking of which militias to trust and which militias to work with . David let me start with fred in answering that question. Well, ill take the last part of that. Mean, factual information, i mean, this is the real problem militias lot of these are sort of auditioning and aising their hands, yeah, ill fight isis, help me, its a great way to get is want and about sort of question what does that really mean . Is there a criteria for signing up and that goes also to the human rights vetting, which is tremendously problematic. In the past, i think when the outside when the europeans train the tried to general purpose force, the recordkeeping system in libya was quite sparse. You didnt know he was a criminal. Some people talked to tribes you know, ask around the families, is this a good person or bad person. Ts worrisome some of the actors pushing back against the Islamic State right running their own prison. I ran into one of them in tripoli where guys are being whos isis, re, whos not . How do you know hes isis. Proce uestion of drew process due process is really an issue. The issue of coordination among special forces. Dont know ive seen the reports about what the french did in benghazi, so each actor impulse and agendas and i think it can be detrimental to National Cohesion if its not orchestrated. I guess that would be my point that they would have to be on the same sheet because when you back faction a, it creates a certain Ripple Effect that could road so ng down the that just goes to my poign that on the same e all sheet. Caution. Proceed with that would be my closing sheet. Of course, do no harm. Before we rush in. This is a society that is probably more resilient than we think. People we talked to, they want their lifestyle issues addressed economy, so that has to be their first step. Okay. Thats a good way for you to end. First, do no harm. Charles, how about you. Charles two things i want to mention. Its been said already that isis libyan ecessarily a phenomenon and i think thats absolutely right. That would spark me to say what say when i talk about syr syria, which is dont forget alqaida. Other one, and i think they have had a hold in libya longer than isis. Nd their branch is intensely connected to alqaidas central leadership and in the field. I think last year, there was a Conference Held between basically every single north alinked group in africa and all the way far south that i in benghazi, and was coordinated by sharia. Panel, i g on the isis would say dont forget about the other jihadi enemy which i would say has much more of a historical foothold in parts of libya. The second part on train and equip, if i was someone in syria parallel, the a training equipment in syria that known as the one that spectacularly failed. It failed because there was a refusal to understand and acknowledge the reality of local dynamics, the reality of what peoples priorities were. So if i was to draw a parallel dont make would say any training equip mission only about isis. The whole broader long term context is that libya has to be secondly account and by extension, the train equip is the that has worked one that was managed by the Central Intelligence agency and coordinated with regional governments. That took 18 months to find the first genuinely reliable vetted forces that still exist to this day, over 50 on groups have training hat vetting, and equipping process since 20122013, and two out of 53 on my count dont exist anymore. Its a remarkable success rate, but it does go to show how long a process conduct like this and how important that rocess was in succeeding and actually acknowledging the local dynamics, that was the primary success. R its so again to sort of reiterate what i said and what others have time. It takes dont rush a process like this. Fail. U rush it, it will david wafa, would you like to couple of us with a thoughts. Thought. St one the process of unifying libya going to be at is long process. And the situation will probably still get worse before it gets better. Mission is communicating ith the u. S. Government with relation to the high political efforts so far, and to jonathan who has been doing a lot of traveling and hard work with communique sometimes around my day and the hour, but message is for them to maintain he momentum and help in coordinating efforts for reconciliation. E need more and more and more reconciliation. , you know, inven proposals and initiatives, and the key for libya and for reaching peace. Thank you. Republican jonathan i know it would be much better to wait for president clinton or president over to leave them with a libyan problem. Better ld actively be for my psychological and physical well being. No doubt about it. Convinced it would be better for libya to just wait, according to the issues we just talked about. Dont do things until you know what the results are going to be. Afraid. Very not just very, very careful. Sure. I love omlets. Eatomlets. I hate breaking eggs. I dont like egg beaters. Satisfactory y form of stipulations. Its going to kill a lot more people before its done and will that. A lot more than it will destroy a lot more if you let them be. Libyans have been asking for it east and west, and south, different types of help. Should the United States and other members of the International Community, a hate, responded positively, or go to them and wait for president clinton or president clump. Trump. I said clump. That was not a freudian slip. T was just a mispronunciation were faced with the policy choices that were faced with. Dont underestimate, and this is he last point, the power of communiques. They establish norms and you can norms conduct against and build activities based upon norms that have been set and of thetimating the power communique, is i think a particularly if people are determined to use it. Thank you. Thing let me just say one as moderator and somebody whos been involved in libya since i went there as a young diplomat history of whole of libyan relations is one some very rapid brief periods of very intense involvement, often relate, our war against tripoli 19th beginning of the century, our bombing of tripoli and benghazi in 1986, and but periods of very benevolent involvement, helping an independent country after the second world war, when other people would to just turned them back the italians. And also, the role of American Oil Companies in helping libya had e prosperous after it been one of the poorest countries in the world. But basically, if you look at been ole history, its long, long periods of neglect. Nd i hope we are turning that around now, and that we will be in helpingy involved the libyans have the kind of future that they deserve, and thanking our in
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