Clustering of states in the world where there wasnt a single democracy. And now according to Freedom House i think correctly judged there is a democracy in tunisia tunisia. Its transitional. It has elements of fertility. Things we should be concerned about. We shouldnt take it for granted and thats precisely my point. If i were an american policymaker i would be saying okay whats the economic agenda for embracing and lifting up this economy, for strengthening the state, for partnering with the Civil Society and political institutions. Youve got to start somewhere. This country is crucially important in an outsized way i think to the future of democracy and freedom throughout the world. The final thing is you know i really do believe and i think my colleagues agree we are really still in a very early days here in terms of the process of the struggle for, to use one of the arabic words, corona dignity throughout the region and this isnt going away. There are many historical events that are going to unfold in the years and decades to come that i think are going to rock these regimes and reduce them to come to demand for the terms of popularity and sovereignty. We are going to have to do another edition of this book, mark. Thats one thing we can say for sure. Mark brumberg my coeditor thank you very much and all of the staff that they National Endowment for democracy and our three panelists. Thank you all. [applause] now on booktv juan cole looks at the impact of millennials in the middle east and the role they play during the arab spring. This is about an hour. [applause] thanks so much to everybody for coming out. Let me say a few words about the book and its genesis. I lived in the middle east a lot in the 70s when i was just a kid and i actually lived for a wild off of two rear square, the main drag, the main Center Square of cairo. That is a roundabout and many of the sort of important streets in cairo come down into it and then you go off to the bridge and so on and so forth. Its a little bit difficult to avoid that square and its central to the citys traffic patterns. So having it occupied, rather a hassle for drivers. The square was instituted, was designed and built way back in the middle of the 19th century by the then rulers. An imitation of paris were he had studied and lived, the ruler and the reconfiguration of paris as a modern city raid we are starting to get those french roundabouts here in ann arbor now i know this. We are catching up now. Cairo did some time ago and i lived off of that square and i went to school there because the American University in cairo the main campus at that time was just off of two rear square and i had a lot of egyptian student friends. We hung out together and went to films together and talked about the future. So when in january of 2011 thousands and thousands and ultimately hundreds of thousands of young people, a lot of them students, came to two rear square and they actually occupied. They brought tents and stayed there the night in some of them does just didnt lead. Started putting up placards president please resign we need a shower. When they did that i recognize them as the sons and daughters of the people i had gone to school with and i have followed the arab world for years. So i felt sort of an affinity to them and i was very interested in what they have to say. Their slogans were different from the ones that i had known say in the early 70s. It was the time of revolutionary romanticism that of the old 1960s mubarak sort. But these young people talked about personal dignity. They were talking about Transparent Elections. I could be wrong but i just dont think Transparent Elections was the main talking point of most people in the arab world in the early 70s. A lot of people at that time wanted a great leader leader. They wanted a man on horseback like the great egyptian nationalist leader. These young people at that time seemed relatively uninterested as leaders. My own teacher who is from egy egypt, the great sociologist and dissident aberdeen when he saw this thing breakout in cairo flew back and i tell the story in the book where he told me he said he went to two rear square were the young people were in being a sociologist kind of sing take me to your leader. He said they looked at him funny. What do you mean by that . It wasnt that kind of movement to have a leader and in fact to this day people are a little bit confused or they cant quite tell how things got done because food showed up in water showed up and things were arranged before and it seemed to be networked and not centralized. It wasnt hierarchical. And of course before that happened in egypt and tunisia young people had pioneered by assembling in such large numbers in provincial cities and ultimately the capital that they paralyze the government. This is what happened there out 2011 and really until last year in egypt. So many young people came out into the streets in central places that they made it impossible for ordinary life to go on. The shops couldnt function very well and people werent making any money and the tourist stuff coming. Basically these young people blackmailed the countrys elit elites. Their message was clear not going home and until that guy is gone. And the rest of the athlete at first it said now we depend heavily on that guy and we like him and he is the source of our wealth and power and then days would pass and nobodys making any money and nothing is getting done and fortunes are in danger and politics are royal and the elites start thinking well, really how well do we want that guy . Ultimately they put him on a plane and sent him into exile. Initially he was thinking we would go to paris but then the president of france sarkozy was initially amenable but then someone whispered that in sarkozys here that there are 800,000 tunisian french and they may not be very happy about this arrangement. And so then 17 ben ali was the flying dutchman in the air and had no place to go. Calls were made to around. There is one reliable place you can always send the old dictators to so he is now in saudi arabia. But these young people were the ones that are ranged for his red sea vacation and why did they do this . What was everybody so upset about . The arab world after the end of world war ii had largely been colonized by the french and the british. And it wasnt very pleasant to be colonized by either one. I lived in france. I grew up partially in france and i knew a french woman. They were in old family friend and years ago i was talking to her and she was kind of conservative and i complain to her about the way the algerians were treated. France to algeria in 1830 and was finally persuaded to leave after a lot of trouble in 1962. She said no, we built the railroads and we built the infrastructure. She said we built churches for them. I dont think they are as grateful for those things as she seems to think they should be so it was no fun being under the colonial jackboot. After the war france and britain were destroyed in many ways. Their economies were very badly off in convincing the people that we should go on spending resources on these foreign colonies was not easy so these countries became independent. Initially their independence really depended on straw man coming to power to have to keckly played a role in opposing the colonial regimes. Those strongmen were of the modernization sort because of controversial whether these colonial regimes actually stood in the way of things like education or industrialization or whether they just werent promoting those things, but the arab world as they came into the mid20th century was alerted and rural. There was little in the way of infrastructure and very little in the way of industry and most people could not read or write. They built enormous numbers of schools and universities. They transformed the region and per capita income went up and people moved to cities and then the soviet union fell. And that model of having the government be 50 maybe of the economy and direct everything fell apart and there was pressure on the rulers to and then maybe that is for the good because some companies were not very efficient. But these rulers who were dictators new which companies would be sold off. So there was the opportunity for Insider Trading to call up their relatives or cronies jews say how would you write to the deal . They got in on the ground floor turning them into billionaires with the enormous corruption then they blocked everybody else economically and politically to run for office you couldnt unless they wanted you to you could not win easily you could easily be jailed for completing about the situation. The corruption was so bad that economists think the stick between one and three points per year off of Economic Growth. So there might not have been such a big economic crunch at the same time all these people coming up the population of egypt 1980 through the present. Imagine how many. Of the millenials. Or political opportunities. So the young people looked at the regimes in and see them as a roadblock that needs to be removed if they go forward a and want to amount to something. It is not just they were led by a dictator whose picture was everywhere. They started to make arrangements for their sons to take over after them. Said this would go into the future for decades. Even the dissidents was around getting rid of the president s for life to make sure theyre not succeeded by their sons. The one place from the dynastic republicanism they all have the plans to pass along so the young people exploded in rage. And i have to say people ask me what did they really accomplish . They accomplish more than is credited to the atmosphere of a phrase you could make a judgment where this is going. [laughter] but it to be there for life was much more rare in the arab world and dynastic rule is just not going to happen. Syria was the only one. And in egypt which as regrets to a soft military dictatorship with president ial elections recently even in egypt with a new constitution has new terms for the president saw it is not a president for life. I saw him on television and instead we understand now you dont get to be president of less people vote for you. They used to be the president was one was chosen by previous president in consultation with the generals that kind of happened but there had to me that public acclamation for it to work. And it was somewhat genuine in this case and in tunisia in important set of transitions its with the parliamentary election in the constituent assembly and a lot of wrangling between the religious right and the more secular and leftist forces to make the hard compromises last january they voted for the constitution. In which the young people watched like a hawk for womens rights so the religious right said women and men have complementary rights. So everybody understood. They did not raise any fools. The young people on the left with the major labor union came out to the streets and in others a full revolution to demand there is equal rights for women that they guarantee workers rights with the constitution and freedom of conscience. Tunisia wanted to put a curb on that and they got it. Everything they demanded and for the government to step down for the government to be formed so there is no vantage to the incumbents. In the constitution specifies men and women have equal rights there is no internet censorship internee show. That was the country that specialized in the old days. So this is a free market will story of maybe 11 million so it is small not big on the worlds radar but you cannot say that tunisian news came out did not accomplish anything. And in yemen as well has been a relatively healthy transition. They will have elections are lee next year and there is pushed back in egypt but degeneration i argue now with maybe 60 somethings are powerful, they have a lot of wealth, they like the changes demanded so they pushed back successfully for the moment. But the 20 somethings have won a advantage. In the long run. [laughter] todays 20 somethings that will be in control and we cannot know what they will do but i mentioned the story in the book in czechoslovakia i remember its well ian day parade right who got onto private radio to protest the soviets to back down the tanks approaching. He was arrested and if you stood up to the authorities you were lost and not a person. And then president of the czech republic. So these are prominent dissidents who helped to make the egyptian revolution lionized the current Egyptian Government has so too was arrested and we have not heard the last of them. Is a remarkable journey i tell the story in this book of tunisia and egypt and libya from a decade and a half ago but i did not want to do a quick book but being a historian to have perspective so to right to something after three years was audacious on my part but i avoided the generalizations from the arab Youth Revolution in the first generation in talked about those that carry out the of revolutions but then they were elected into office 2011 and 2012. That this is the islamic winter not the era of spring. As they were overthrown with a compromise now were at the point where they dont make much sense but i tried to stand back to say lets not talk about the specifics of that particular change but the young people who made the changes. And what are they doing now . Sullen me read a little bit from the book of the internet activist from tunisia. He set up an internet Discussion Group that was very much disliked by the dictatorship. He ran this for seven years but then the Internet Police finally tracked down zohair june 4th, 20026 policeman rated the internet cafe to taken to his apartment where they confiscated his personal computer and files. He was subjected to brutal interrogation three times he was strung up by his arrest so his feet barely touched the ground on the third round he finally gave up the password. That allowed the authorities to take it down temporarily. So he was sentenced one year in prison for spreading false news and for the fraudulent use for communication because shes secretly used the internet cafe where he worked soon after his girlfriend reid and reinstated the site so she kept it going is his cousin recalls the internet was often called off to use the names of friends or neighbors. According to his brother 120 inmates in the hall with one bathroom and hardly any water. And then demanded a holder straight to demand his release put in the same period also beginning his own Hunger Strike the crowded cells and the lack of food and water damage to his health. So this caused a breach with his father. The border man never understood and accepted what zohair had done and could not reconcile the he defied the police in getting arrested and could not excuse it. He died while zohair was in prison on the morning of the funeral and had given permission to come home to give respect to his father sold the family hurried. They had the day had barely broken and when we have arrived and there was one dozen buses and least in the camera truck. He would shackle that his a convict on death row. The majority had the come to express their condolences and the house was empty know it was completely full. There were 30 plainclothesman, one of them walked over to the corpse of my uncle. I remember it well. He said making david into goliath the shame walking on a dead person . They were sitting on the floor and5m do we rob disgusted to see the cops. But we were happy a least ohare could attend his fathers funeral. But then the neighbors were convinced they were shooting a film in the neighborhood. Zohair and got out shortly thereafter he had a massive heart attack. It is now a National Holiday in tunisia. Thank you. I will now open for questions. Dc any changes with saudi arabia . The. Satin arabia like a lot of the places is very young the median age of the arab world as 370 Million People is 24. And in my generation in the 60s the u. S. Cut down at 28. But theyre even younger and saudi arabia is maybe even younger than some of the and theres. Certainly there are a lot of young people with new ideas and not able to express them very well with the extremely repressive society and there is a constraint on activism. It is also a very wealthy society. The Worlds Largest petroleum exporter. But that is not very important because we use all of and then import more by the saudis only use a little and export the rest. They get a lot of money in the bank. So that allows the government since the revolutions of 2011 have substantially increased the perks from the saudi cities and they have Free Health Care in very low interest loans on houses it is good to be a saudi in many ways. And kuwait as well they gave them money to keep them quiet. A key debtor really nice home theater system you could have a revolution or a home theater. So far the people with the other perks have quieted down. But if things are only quiet on the surface we dont know it is not a wellknown society view ask most exports they would have said no. But that was not the common wisdom. But that does not seem so. There arent the people youll people . With the radical groups in this space isg7c long in the tuesday night of think is a millennial but never like to underlinec the this generation is much more urban and cosmopolitan than their elders were. And in egypt at least certainly indonesia the most of these countries are not that interested in political is long they are a minority so the groups that we hear about because they have Tactical Training with the most people would agree 4 of respondents said that syria ever presented the aspiration. It is not a large number of people with those desert like areas said they loom large in the consciousness and then over onethird are millenials that is where most people are at. So it is not all of that arabs are democrats are leftist but that they are deeply polarized over the issues and it could be their radical fundamentalists are reacting against the fact there such a small minority of this generation so going to hell in a handbasket so in that western sense so they are deeply polarized in that could be in the same discontent also competing ideologies and visions of what civilization is. And in the big countries of the more liberal leftist will predominate that people seem to be on that side of things. I like your analogy but it makes me want to know what this generation says to reach other . To they have a consciousness with the consciousness of themselves and this is sometimes hidden from us the way we speak in english but like in libya the people who oppose gadaffi are called bubbles. And then us