Look ahead to a year from now. But will iraq look like quick theres a real possibility will have three de facto states. The official state dominated by the shia arabs in the south. The Islamic State or the isil state in syria and iraq and the very top of his kurdish entity in the north. How that function . It will function well. They will be at odds with each other. However another alternative will work to find a way to unify the countrys and then how golf course is to write to retake in the territory from the isil. Thats the best way, but its in trouble right now. You can see out the iraqi ambassadors comment that 4 10 eastern in todays washington journal site that with jeffrey anytime on her website that is cspan. Org. Booktv sat down with former secretary of state work with didnt discuss her new book, hard choices. You dont make peace with your friends. Make it with people who are your adversaries, who have killed those who care about your people are those who you are trying to protect. It is a psychological drama. You have to get into the head of those on the other side because you have to change their calculation enough to get them to the table. I talk about what we did in iran. You had to put a lot of economic pressure to get them to the table and lunacy that happens, but that has to be the first step. I read about what we did in afghanistan and pakistan, trying to get the taliban to the table for a comprehensive discussion with the government of afghanistan. In iraq today, i think what we have to understand is that it is primarily a political problem that has to be addressed. The ascension of the sunni extremist, socalled isis group is taking advantage of the breakdown in political dialogue and the total lack of trust between the maliki government, the sunni leaders and the kurdish leaders. Is Hillary Clintons saturday that an p. M. Eastern on sunday morning at 9 15 spin twos booktv. An Upcoming European energy rushes change your relationship with western countries in your strategy for helping ukraine to be more energy dependent, Carlos Pascual come a former u. S. Ambassador to ukraine another special envoy of coordinator for Energy Affairs on the u. S. Ambassadors to russia, georgia and kazakhstan jordan Farmer EnergyDepartment Official at this forum hosted by the with fenner. By the Wilson Center. [inaudible conversations] i want to welcome everyone. I ambler rupert, Vice President for programs here at the Wilson Center and i want to welcome everyone on the has to jane harman, the president , director of ceo of the Wilson Center who is out of town at the moment, but she wishes she could be here because this is going to be a really interesting and port session. It is interesting both for what you will hear today and because this is the inaugural session of what will be ongoing Seminar Series looking at Energy Issues in different regions of the world. We hope to have the series continue more on every other month. One of the reasons for doing this is because obviously energy is a golden word. We were just talking about how unlike say Imperial Russian law, energy will fill a room in washington. There are real reasons for that because the issues we are going to talk about very much will affect how we live our lives. So it is important for us to be adding to the conversation about energy into do so by building on the Wilson Center thanks by focusing on regions around the world and bringing the regional dimension. The series then this book comes from a book, which is really the brainchild of one of the panelists, jan kalicki, who is here and has been affiliated for a long time. He has been the animating force behind a number of center at cavities and for the book that is on sale outside, energy and security and this is the second edition of the book. The First Edition was about the bestseller at the Wilson Center press. I say about because there was a book on terrorism that run sql with it. But it is obviously an art topic ng and has always assembled for panels like this wonderful experts. So we are fortunate to have jan with us. He was at chevron for 13 years in eight years in the Clinton Administration before that. We are also very honored to be joined by the very distinguished group of very senior people, including ambassadors and it will be im sure a wonderful, wonderful panel. So in fact, i am going to turn the chair over to Matt Rojansky of the institute. I want to thank matt and his staff for pulling together the session. As always, the kennedy staff has done a wonderful job. Thanks very much, blair. I am in fact not substitute. Anyone who has not figured that out might be in the wrong room. Part of the reason were all here, as blair said come is because of the phenomenal experts gathered on this panel and who have helped the Kennedy Institute and the Wilson Center really to make a mark on the energy. I am thankful to jan and not you and julia at a time like this because it is of particular could earn that not everything be understood through the land of the current conflict, the current tragedy, the current Fascinating Development in ukraine, but actually understood on it. On a deeper level in some cases in a very tight go away in to be able to grasp what may happen in the future, including in connection with the crisis. So we wont shy away from that by any means, but we want to take a broader look at the same time. The Kennan Institute is the Wilson Centers oldest program. We celebrated our 40th anniversary this year. We have over 400 alum night throughout the Russian Federation. We have more than 100 ukraine, all throughout ukraine, including either way in crimea. We are proud to be the first at the Wilson Center to host will now be the synergy series. Other programs we expect to follow through china, north america, are, latin america, middle east, africa and others. Now, when i think about energy in this region, i frankly dont think about oil and gas. I dont think about power lines. I dont think about environmental impacts. I think mostly about organization because the psychological key for development and for political success on this entire part of the world is modernization. Energy is so central to the issue that i think it has almost become a part of the psychological lexicon of politics and people throughout the postsoviet space. Russia assert no exception. I think the panel today can address some of these questions, but id like to put them out there. Is there a change now with the emergence of a new connection between ukraine, but also mobile for and georgia to the European Union . Is your change fundamentally underway in the dynamics of energy, development and modernization in the region . Are we beginning to see a real cleavage that will have real and tax . Or rbc anytime very that will be just about finished until the political deal is reached and flows will return to normal in every sense. What in the longer term is the positive vision for energy in this region . How can energy be something other than a weapon, and interruption and inadequacy of the system . Of course, are we going to come it takes to the politics, which continue to become more and more complex rather than less every day, we see that now. Of course the relaunching of the military can gain full scale, are we going to have the time necessary to make the right kinds of decisions about Energy Issues in this region . At the panel could shed light on all of those questions. My first privilege is to introduce jan kalicki, former counsel to chevron corp. Total know some thing about energy and of course editor of the volume energy and security. Jan. Thank you, matt and blair for that kind introduction. Its a great leisure to be here with my friend and editor, David Colburn is that many long hours together working on the book. My coauthor for the chapter we did on russia and my very good friend, john beyrle and william courtney. A lot of good friends were able to come and join us here. Let me just say a few words about the ukraine crisis as a way and in the context of how it interacts with Energy Issues and then i think david will start from the rubric of the book and tackle it from the other side. Ukraine, i guess many feel that the immediate crisis may be on its way to stabilizing, but the longterm issues remain. For one, solitary and the annexation of crimea stand in the socalled russian hegemony of the server Eastern Ukraine. Second time easterbrook richmond, which seems to be a russian path at least for the time being. Instead of western engagement, which seems to be the chosen path in ukraine subject to what happens from day to day every day in the development occurs. Nationalist courses are otherwise just another countries an ace for cooperation, i believe, will narrow to the centrist very much coincide. So one has to be pretty skipped to go about. In russia and ukraine, energy is not just a commodity. It is really an Economic Life preserver and a crucial instrument of influence. I think it is important to recognize that while we may have a market view of energy from the western is, it is very much a power political view for the eastern perspective. Personally im skeptical we can expect the situation to do more than stabilized in the near future. But that is still meaningful. Violence can diminish. Moscow can return to their. The National Regional agenda does. Regionally, russian tolerance of kievs e. U. Agreed that can open an opportunity for genuine reform in ukraine is becoming a bridge rather than an orange wedge of southern sindh and if you will and perhaps president bush and the oligarchs stick with then if he can secure interregional support in this country and if the e. U. , u. S. And imf put money where our mouth is. Otherwise as the chinese say, big noise upstairs, nobody coming down. And that is very much a possibility given the nature of western behavior, which is then lots of frederick. Some sanctions, which are very specific targeted area. Not much in a few of the larger strategy in tatters where the Energy Becomes very important. I am reminded that the Prime Minister of the uks said recently, we have to realize that energy is not a fifth level consideration. It is the first level consideration and im glad our european friends are coming to that conclusion. Some of us here in this town have been feeling this for quite a long while, but theres some statement to that effect over there. So what about the role . I say it is crucial, but in the past it was crucially negative and in the future it has to be crucially positive. In the past, corrupt middlemen siphon up gas revenues, ukraines gas came at exorbitant prices and russia pressed ahead with alternative pipeline to completely circumvent ukraine. The question in the future is whether ukraine and we can reverse these trends. This implies a concerted effort to replace overpriced russian gas, to overhaul ukraines domestic gas said and to push back against russias antiukraine pay plan policies. A pretty tall order for sure. Statesmanship possible year . Erratically yes. Energy could reinforce ukraine as the bridge rather than a wedge. I think at least two elements will be needed. First, energy as part of an imf loan in reform package and relatedly because they cant go just on their own, replacing the zerosum type a name with c alternative. For example ,com,com ma ukraine, russia and the e. U. Could each invested one third of the pipeline with a golden share held by the company boosted after gas. These are big challenges and im not pretending this is some do you do by tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. In the past, the small leaders, which i think basically especially in kiev, were not at todays challenges. One is always hope when i am an optimist and i think it really is possible certainly we cant do worse in kiev. Princes have it way of forcing readers to make waiver decisions. Russias economic downturn will acquire, i believe, greater cooperation with the west over time. Ukraine can and should be part of this possible, perhaps inevitable agenda. So just clued, i would say that energy is a key strategy for ukraine and russia in vice versa. After david speaks to the other half of this framework, i look forward to hearing from john and bill and julia to help us figure out hopefully was such a strategy might look like and i would like to see again how pleased we are to be hosted by kevin, which is such a major part of the wilsons vendors history and it is a delight to start with this in a timely point given the issues we are facing. Davis former special envoy for energy and is coeditor of energy and security. Thanks, matt. Thanks to the wilsons honor for hosting this event and all of you for coming. In this book that jan and i put together, titleist Greater Energy strategies for a country in transition. The technological advances in the u. S. From the shale oil and gas revolution has she position of the u. S. In the energy space, thats relative abundance, being a leader to knowledge he had been less of a demand from the world terms of energy come which gives us more status to talk to others about change. We really make two primary points. Remake a few because an 800 page book. The primary was today or we have the opportunity to make the energy world are resilient by promulgating the technology overseas, but can u. S. Oil in s. Abundant to the international market, making oil and gas markets more of themselves by using the Financial Institutions to make other countries more attractive to Energy Investments they can be more selfsufficient and we can leverage the fact many producers are also big consumers. Saudi arabia for one of a lot of consumers and price stability. We have my diplomatic capital that we did. 2 is all we have the ability to make this tidbit in our policy achieves energy not as a weapon, but a force multiplier or total are at least as part of our kit to make change and help other countries be marcel yet, it is unclear whether we can manage promoting development of energy overseas in support for Climate Change. It is uncertain whether we can under the roots natural gas and a policy statement coming out of the white house and we want to develop them rather than make the world more resilient because were resilient because reusing lesson may have more. It is unclear. The question as it affects russia and ukraine desire we doing all he can with all we have to maximize this advantage. No not yet. What are agenda should be for your. Europe is not as fully integrated gas market. Are we doing enough to move europe in that direction . Is your doing enough for itself . Development of shale gas. It comes from gas. Some of it comes from energy giant unnamed in western europe who do not want to give a relation ships they have with russia. Are we doing enough to call them out and to advocate for the promotion and deal with the environment or do we have to say we are too embarrassed to talk about it. And ukraine are say poland and the others and the other scum are we doing enough to promote internal economic change in those countries again icing the answer is probably more we can do for not doing enough yet. A third category we have to look at is whether he do enough on her own to connect to market. Exporting lng or crude oil, all very hot topics. When we compete with others, we make markets more competitive. We are the only country the oecd that exports the risk of energy and we spent the last 35 years telling everybody else to put restrictions on the exports of energy and develop all they can. Maybe this is not sustainable. When we do with these crises can we address these crises come we have to ask ourselves are we doing enough on the agenda to promote this . What about the caspian as well . Ambassador courtney will talk about this in his talk. We spent decades trying to build up the caspian and promote exports and are probably wondering where the policy is right now. I think we have done important things. We are helping ukraine the shale shale gas and internal reform. We are helping them on debt. If the strategic option is to make energy less profitable for russia, an investment in russia less attractive than provide diversity of supply for europe and diversity of supply for other countries, theres a lot more energy than we could do but are not doing it will talk about what those steps might be. Thank you very much, david and keeping tourister time limits. Ambassador john beyrle was former u. S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation into bulgaria. John. Thank you. Its great to be back here at the Wilson Center again and to see so many familiar faces and committed experts. Its always a little daunting to talk to a crowd like this. I think what i would try to do is talk a lot about energy today. I like to maybe pull back a minute and look at the general context of the relationship, the troubled relationship between russia and the west or russia and the United States, russia and europe and then hone in on a few last pics that i think make this crisis feel it it different and bring it back to the energy site. There is a temptation for those of us who have been doing u. S. Soviet, u. S. Russia relations for most of our careers to see any dispute between russia and the west as just the latest in a series of cyclical downturn, which are almost inevitably followed by upturn. I think more importantly theres always been a 10 d. Or an inclination ove