30 years, may not be from russias strength, but weakness. That, i think, should inform serious policy thinking about russia and our approach to it. We know that the reset of relations, that the Obama Administration attempted to ork state with moscow in the last four years is, well, not as healthy as it could be, i would say today; right . The reset has been a failure. We know now that the white house is at least beginning to think about what comes next. What this is intended to do is to give them a little bit of food for thought about where russia is headed because knowing where russias heading is determinative to figuring out what our policy towards it should be, so, thank you, guys, ill stop there. [applause] well take questions, be kind to wait for the microphone to be passed to you, and state your name and affiliation if you care to as a curtesy to the guest, and im going to take the prerogative of reading one of the questions we received online, and ill change it a little bit. How can the u. S. Or could the u. S. Effectively support positive transformation in russia without creating the perception of foreign interference, which only aggravates the antiamerican feeling and also targets liberty issues in that country . Well, i think its a great question, and it actually sort of to go on a slight tangent for a second. One of the republicans why russia is so uncooperative on middle east policy, and, for example, has spent two and a half years supporting the assad regime against the opposition is because its seen the movie before. Remember, a decade ago, russia witnessed what we now call the color revolutions; right . In elsewhere, and they are scared those trend lines take hold in russia. Heres a secret. Putin is not that popular. The last credible pulling that i saw came out in the spring from the center in moscow, and it suggested that of respondents who voted for who participated in the vote for the president ial elections, the last president ial election in russia, only 34 said that they would vote for Vladimir Putin; right . In a democratic society, that is catastrophic. Even in an authoritarian one, its deeply troubling, which is why what you have seen over the past year is a deepening of russias antidemocratic trick. The real dilemma for u. S. Policymakers is how to square the circle, how to invest in democratic institutions, democratic infrastructure without seen as meddling in internal affairs without having its proxies, whether its the International Republican institute, the National Democratic institute, whatever, blacklisted with agents, sort of, you know, kicked out of the country. I think thats a very difficult needle to thread, and thats the reason why the Obama Administration has spent so little time thinking about it because theres large things that we can work with on with regard to russia, work on reductions, and counterterrorism, and these things, these are thornier issues. I think one of the most fruitful conversations with russia moving forward is the start branching into something larger, is a discussion on relations, and Economic Opportunity for russians minorities because russia and the United States on a number of issues dealing with radical islam and counterterrorism have a tremendous amount of commonty, and russians are wired to listen when we talk. Especially now, start a tactical dialogue on security ahead of the sochi games and migrate into a larger conversation about now using blunt force to deal with your sort of, with your discrepancies in your muse lime minority. Have that become a larger conversation. Its not an easy conversation to have. Hi, im an intern here. My question was about the liberal opposition within russia, and i wanted to ask you how much of an influence realistically do you think people like the deutsche channel or anything has going into the future . I think its a good question, and the state of russias democratic opposition is one of those things that you tend to watch sort of sporadically; right . When hes put on trial on charges and released and sort of, you know, gets wrapped up again, you tend to notice, but theres not a lot of sustained attention. I point out a couple trend lines. One, profoundsly negative, and one slightly positive. Profoundly negative one is Vladimir Putin understands very much because of his popularity ratings that there is a problem. There is a problem if theres a sustainedded liberal opposition to his rule. As a result, hes tried to widen the conversation. Putins political faction is known as united russia. They have undergone a series of public black eyes over two years. Members in the lower house of the parliament caught with property in the United States, you know, above and beyond sort of what they should have been afforded, based on their paycheck, defense minister who, you know, engaged potentially in graph based upon a personal vendetta, all sorts of things tarnishing the united russian brand. What putin has done in two and a half years is to widen the conversation. Since 2010, hes been talking and recently, acting, to create something called the Russian National front. This is an conglomeration of 200 political organizations, geos, social organizations which are intended to be an umbrella to feed ideas into united russia. It is intended to, one, rehabilitate united russia to show that united russia is more accountable, listening to all the groups, and, second, push the liberal opposition to the outskirts of russian politic. Because if everybody but everybody is part of the National Front and youre not, then that just means youre a crack pot, and as a result, putins managed, at least so far, to deathly maneuver through russian politics, but there are hopeful signs that this is not going to be indefinitely the case. For example, mayoral elections suggest this dominance of united russia and russian linked parties is a transient affair, and left to their devices, voters vote to elect somebody else. Im not exactly sure that they want specific person, but somebody else. Other than the established hierarchy, something the kremlin is cos any cant over, not clear they can control or clamp down on, but gives you a glimmer of hope there are yearnings for pluralism beyond the construct that putin created, but its not clear yet they come to any sort of real meaningful fruition. Hi, as you know, one of the projects to reviet al lies view vitalize, and focusing on the Central Asian and now the south caucuses. I think the idea is, you know, allows russia to reconstitute the margs that they could hold the line, tiny penetration in some ways in the union in euroasia and so on. What do you think the chances of that success of the project would be, and in terms of reversing some of the trend you caution us about . Well, its interesting. You mentioned this was intended as hedge against china. It is up to a point, but i think its a hedge against european liberalization. Look what happened with russian strong arming of ukraine over two months. Youve seen ukraine that was on track signing the Association Agreement with the European Union, and as a result, penalized by the Russian Federation. It was essentially the Ukrainian Government told in no uncertainly terms, you make the mistake of choosing europe and not my eurasian economic block, theres adverse consequences, for example, ill clamp down on trade, clamp down as a raising of customs restrictions. This is a hedging strategy for sure, but it does not alter the overall trajectory, and, n. , among certain governments, it actually increases their push westward; right . To buck the trend of realignment with moscow. Its not clear that russias economy is as vibrant as dynamic as it needs to be to really draw people to it if the dak deck was not stacked, and this is, i think, a real problem. If you a great little vignette some missed is in the last two weeks, china has bought up the equivalent of 5 of ukrainian territory for agricultural purposes. This is a big deal, a big deal suggests that china is increasingly moves west ward also in the economic plans, but a challenge to russia because if they covet ukraine, covering it economically, increasingly they are not just dealing with ukraines western leanings, but a difficult variable, the intryings of china. Against all trends, its not clear that the economic plans of the Russian Federation are robust enough or forward looking enough that theyre actually going to make russia sol yent and amealuate trends i talked about, they are trying. In the long term, its a very difficult road. Im from israel. Two questions. One is a short term question about russia, and the other iranian situation, negotiations going on now. What do you think is going on in putins mind about that . Play a positive role . Try to be a spoiler a and second question is longer term china, which i think is a name of the game longer term, what is the trueness formation going on in russia mean for china, and chinas role in the world scene . Well, so, the ukrainian issue first because i think it is useful to unpack this. I think that the russian government creates a problem and sees itself as the solution to the problem. For example, the russian government initiated the sale or approve the sale of s300 antimissile batteries to iran, table that sale, and now the sale is back on the table. This is a little bit of a pattern, and when you look at what russia is seeking, its useful to point out that partnership with iran is not across the board an uncontroversial issue in russia. Its not a settled issue. Theres a strong vocal minority that points out the Islamic Republic is closer geographically to the Russian Federation than israel, and its anything that any capability that iran gains, if they are not careful, could be directed to russia itself, but the dominant line has been cooperation, cooperation as a result of Defense Industrial ties, cooperation as a result of the fact that iran has the potential to exacerbate these radical islamic tendencies in the caucuses, if it wants to, and you keep it at baby engaging in commerce with it, and its animated by, at least in some of the russian elites, by good Old Fashioned antiamericans. Best defense is a good offense, and if the west is bogged down with fires in the middle east, its less likely to interfere in russias, and they are a concern about the encoachment of europe, nato, and of the United States, and i am skeptical, but, you know, dont let 30 years of u. S. Iranian politics stop you, but if you believe this is going to happen, you have to understand that russias going to be disadvantaged as a result, but those same, iran is now no longer an adversary of the United States, but a partner, then iran moves from being an asset to a liability. With regard to china in the long term, the question is about economics. China needs something on the order of 20 million jobs created every year to keep the Unemployment Rate stable, which is why you see a massive export of chinese Human Capital to latin america, africa, and the Russian Far East; right . Chinas growth, the explosive growth, what the average, like, 10 10 growth, despite the global recession, suggests that china needs to fuel the fire. Chinas hungry. As a result, they are looking for new economic markets and Economic Opportunities that the Russian Far East in the context, quite frankly, is low hanging fruit. The only country that turned the ship around is georgia because they got involved, and the patriarch was blessing every third child. Tell us about the state of the Orthodox Church in russia. Is it a player . Could it perhaps fix the demographic situation somewhat . Well, absolutely it a player. A good point to draw out. Something thats remarkable, and, again, sort of alliances in putins russia are no tore youly mercurial, those up today are down tomorrow, and those viz l in the tv tomorrow disappear into academia for seven years and come back, but what you notice is the macrotrend line seen over three or four years has been a growing closeness of the kremlin and russian Orthodox Church to the point where the church has become, if not a across the board rubber stamp for policies, a powerful voice vocalizing in support of large percentage of kremlin policies, but notice this this is not demographic, a demographic question, but a political question. Its enshrinement of ideas as translated by the kremlin and russian Orthodox Church. Whether it translates to more babies in russia . Probably not. You know, its not a mistake that putin hit upon the alliance with the russian Orthodox Church because he saw the trend line in georgia and understands how the things work. The russian Orthodox Church, for him, is less of a demographic salvation and more of a political ally. You mentioned earlier in the 1990, russia does not a a peace dividend, no investment by the government as least in social services, infrastructure, what have you, and in the same peer, there was a great deal of u. S. Aid, as a result, sitting up ngos, public organizations, nongovernmental organizations, that to try to build a Civil Society in russia. Has there been any evidence or any work that these private institutions have stepped into fill the void to perform these social services that the government has not . I think its a good question, and, yes, you know, i probably overspoke sort of over estimated only slightly when i said there was no peace diff depped. There was in real terms; right . Russian economy got better and ancillary runoff that went to russian society, but, and because, you know, per capita gdp now is better than the collapse of the soviet union. You cant say there was no progress, but you see there were not serious systemic investments in the type of infrastructure you talk about, in, you know, transparent elections, monitoring, social services, outreach. Thats where the International Community came in. Thats where you had sort of a real sustained investment track on the part of the International Community, who, also, by the way, from the Defense Department you know there was a sustained investment track in the dismantlement of russians strategic weapons. Also, the dividend from that, where, you know we can talk about it but nonetheless, these were the two main tracks of sort of u. S. Interest in postsoviet russia. I think whats happening now when you see the rollback of Civil Society in russia, its very much a function of precisely that, a function of the fact that the kremlin sees these entities having been either created or at least partially supported by the International Community as a threat, as a potential insur gent threat; right . The russian governments approval over the last couple years, the now Foreign Agent laws requires political ngos to gain this, to be outside plight russian politics tells you everything you need to know about the fact that the russian government is more interested in margin alizing governments than exploiting them. The elements effective as political voices, but a threat by the kremlin and as a result, they are margin alize. Im not sure. I have not done a study on how effective theyve been, duh i know based on practice, they are seen not as a partner, but as a challenge for the russian government, and as a result, you know, knives are out. Visa are already by the way i dont know what the actual tally is as of this week and bet on the order of dozens of billions of dollars. Its the most expensive olympics that has ever been constructed. There are lots of indications that there is graft the head of the Olympic Committee was replaced because the project is not on schedule so this is as much a public image problem for the russians as it is a security problem but both things matter. Russia has to provide when the world is watching russia has to provide a secure environment and that means sadly a lot of very heavyhanded security tactics but they have a real problem on their hands. But its also going to mean that they really have to get their economic up and running so when the world begins to look at sochi it doesnt look like a a village. Hi. Thank you for the presentation. Im from the north caucasus diaspora. Last week i attended a conference at George Washington university about russia and a certain statistic jumped out at me. Plagiarism and russian economic institutions is as high as 70 so how can you tell when u. S. Officials go to meet with russian officials, how do you know that these officials are not . You cant in fact and this is a real problem. The dead devaluing of educational integrity in russia is a symptom of that decline where there is a culture of corruption that does pervade other things and we understand it or baits industrial and economic sectors but it does have an impact on ancillary sectors. The fact that this is acceptable and University Records turn a blind eye tells you everything you need to know about whats for sale and whats not. But i made mention of it when i was giving my presentation this is why statistics in russia at least in part or so suspect because its not hard to discern who is getting Good Research in russia particularly when they have 70 of resumes padded area that is why i moved to the u. N. Estimates is being the main estimates be