Transcripts For CSPAN2 Key Capitol Hill Hearings 20131211

Come to order. Let me thank our witnesses for being here. In july in this committee meant to assess the transition in afghanistan. You had been on the job will lead to months of the time. In looking over the transcripts of that hearing was struck about how the issues remained virtually the same five months later. I look forward to hearing what both of you believe we should expect in the coming months as well as your perspective on some broader issues i have with respect to the state department and usaid planning for a postal facebook. Com booktv presents. Clearly this is a critical time in the transition process. President karzai has, in my view, and wisely decided to gamble with the lives of millions of citizens with a delay in signing the bilateral security in agreement, testing your patience and threatening the progress made by so many afghans in partnership with the International Community since 2001. And believe this brinksmanship is unwarranted and, frankly, insulting to the sacrifices made by the United States military and taxpayers and it is not in afghanistans best interest. But i dont think anyone should take my word for it. Ask the thousands who participated last month and overwhelmingly call for afghanistan to sign. As leaders in the region of called upon afghanistan to sign. Asked Afghan Civil Society leaders to without a smooth and stable transition stand to lose ground gained over the past decade. And as the women of afghanistan he stand to lose the most if afghanistan falls victim to the kind of violence that we saw in the 90s. Any further delay will have real applications on the ground. First and every day that passes makes it more difficult to plan militarily. Second, along with the the late the more players in afghanistan and across the region has their bets among leading good people to leave afghanistan and taking the capital with them. Simply put, at some point, the United States has to ask if we should let our longterm interests and our success of investments in afghanistan be determined by a lameduck president. If we are not able to finalize the bilateral Security Agreement, the results are clear. All u. S. Troops would have to leave the country, supporting congress for appropriations for the Afghan Military and Development Efforts will diminish, and we will not be able to support the Afghan Military any significant way or be able to provide Development Assistance at the same levels. Afghans seem to understand this. It is unfortunate that president karzai does not. Even though i note with interest an article that says that president karzai agreed on a cooperation pact on sunday while continuing to resist signing a longterm Security Agreement with the United States. It is Pretty Amazing to me. Enough time and effort to strike an agreement with tehran, but not with the country that is shed blood and National Treasure to bring it to the point at which it yesterday. Let me reiterate finally hit the u. S. Has no intention in interfering in the election process. The choice of president and provincial officials will rest with the Afghan People, but the future of International Assistance will depend upon the integrity of the process. We have seen some progress with respect to the election preparations, but i am concerned about the security situation. We know that hundreds of polling places will not be able to open. Many are in areas too dangerous for domestic and international observation. I am also deeply concerned that this enfranchisement of women, especially in rural areas where it has been difficult to recruit afghan women to serve and security rules and politicians. It is also clear that his behavior makes it difficult to plan our diplomatic and element efforts in nearly four to our witness is providing the committee with a better understanding of the administrations planning for the state department in usaid the proposed 2014. Having laid out the broad parameters, that me thank you both for being here. I look forward to our discussion. With that, let me recognize the distinguished ranking member, for his opening statement. Thank you, chairman. What to think the witnesses. I dont know exactly the outcome of todays meeting in light of what is happening in afghanistan , but i would like to make three brief points and certainly look forward to hearing your testimony. I think that where we are today in this Bilateral Agreement, we certainly have a president of a country that is really not speaking for its citizens, and that think everyone understands that. All of us who have had encounters with karzai and understand the irrationality it comes with most dealings with him. So, you know, i think as i talk to the troops in tennessee that are getting ready to be there in february in a sort of asking, why would we go to a country that has a president who is dealing with us this weight . And, of course, exploration is, again, he is not speaking for afghanistan. We have got to look to a long review in the Afghan People and not to one individual that is somehow trying to find his place in history. Secondly, would love to hear i know that when the ambassador was in a most recent blessed by setting we thought we were maybe a couple of days away from something happening. I know that everyone shared that view. That is not where we are. I would love to your your assessment as to how this uncertainty is affecting things inside the country economically, how is affecting business decisions, how it is affecting the ingress and egress of citizens and how they will affect the political circumstances between now and the proposed election in april. And leslie, i know that a number of us who were at the Munich Security Conference last year, almost 11 months ago, our nato allies were wanting to know, you know, how are they going to provision troops, how many folks there are some things, and i know the administration can and should be communicating. I dont know if you want to especially shed any light on the conversations that are occurring relative to if we get this bilateral in place, you know, how those communications are going. Will we still be in a position to be appropriately ready. With that i look forward to our witnesses and thank them for being here. Thank you. Lets turn to ambassador dobbins the acting assistant to the administrator for the office of afghanistan and pakistan. Careful statements will be included in the record. I urge you to summarize them so that we can have a dialogue with you. The floor is yours. Thank you, mr. Chairman. Ranking member, senator. My longer statement does cover a range of issues, but i want to concentrate on the one that both of you have raised which is the fate of the bsa and the consequences for our and the International Communitys relations with afghanistan. As you noted, assembled by president karzai, 2,500 afghanistan leaders from around the country, strongly endorsed and urged the president to conclude by the end of the year. One member actually told me that of the 2500 people, only 25 spoke out against which would be a pretty startling majority. The United States certainly agrees with the Afghan People concluding that they will send an important signal to the people of afghanistan, our allies, partners, for the Afghan People it will reduce anxiety and uncertainty about the future they will tell the television that they are only passed violence and excepting the afghan constitution. There will insure the region that the United States will remain engaged, as will its allies and that we are not going to abandon afghanistan as we did once before. To our nato allies and other International Partners there will open the door to concluding a native agreement of comparable status of forces and allow them to begin planning for their 2015 presence. For all these reasons the administration is committed to expeditious signature of this agreement, delaying signatures in no ones interest as both of you have stressed. Dylan would add another element of uncertainty as they prepare for their elections. The United States and our nato allies would mean a lack of clarity about our own presence in 2015 which in turn would jeopardize the fulfillment, the pledges of assistance that nato and other countries have made. As ambassador race made clear during her recent visit, although it is not our preference, without a prompt signature of this agreement we will have no choice but to initiate planning for a 2,014 post 2014 future in which there would be no u. S. Or nato troops in afghanistan. Let me make clear, however, that plans are not decisions and assure you that we are not about to decide to abandon all that we in the Afghan People have achieved. Based upon the results of the expressions of Public Opinion throughout the country and discussions the route my own visit last week, i dont believe that there can be any serious doubt that the Afghan People want the United States and nato forces to state and recognize that the bilateral Security Agreement is a necessary prerequisite. Also the keystone of a much wider International Permanent involving over 70 countries ready to provide economic and Security Assistance to afghanistan beyond 2015. The regional neighbors with the exception of a iran also understand the importance. And a stand that they have all personally urged the president to conclude this agreement. As you know, several of these leaders are no fans of American Military presence in central asia, but they all seem to recognize that without continued International Military and economic support afghanistan risks falling back into civil war with the attendance rise in extremist groups come out flow of refugees in destructions and commerce that would threaten the region as a whole. Given this coincidence of afghan public and regional governmental opinion i see little chance that there will not be eventually concluded. Awaiting the arrival of the next half afghan president to do some will impose large and unnecessary costs on the Afghan People. Already the anxiety caused by president karzai refusal to keep the yen price of the in the serve as having such an effect. While there last week to learn from the world bank and other sources that the afghan currency is slipping in value. Inflation is increasing, Property Values dropping. Probably for the First Time Since 2001 the outflow of afghan population exceeds the return of refugees. The longer this uncertainty about the future of International Commitment to afghanistan continues the more anxiety will increase potentially dominating the Upcoming Elections and red ink to turn this into a polarizing rather than unifying experience of the country. Prolonged uncertainty will also erode larger, International Support for a consent. Tokyo and chicago, the International Community pledged billions in support of the Afghan Security forces and the afghanistan economy beyond 2014. As in the United States the fulfillment of these pledges is dependent upon public support and parliamentary approval. Prolonged delay in concluding in the also required mental equivalent agreement can only diminish the prospect that these pledges will be fully met. So just to conclude there really i have no doubt that theyll ultimately will be concluded. I am concerned about the damage and the cost which are prolonged delay will create. I cannot predict with any certainty when it is going to be signed. At think there is some prospect that it could be signed this year. Given my own discussions with the president last week, i am simply not in a position to provide you any assurances. It continues to be our objective and we are nowhere near a decision. They keep. Thank you for the opportunity to testify. I have been working since 2002. In addition to having worked in the afghan constitutional i served as a representative of an international ngo, Senior Adviser to two commanders and as chief of staff to the u. N. Assistance mission. After the fall that taliban regime my saw firsthand in afghanistan and have been devastated by decades of conflict, the unprecedented investment by u. S. Taxpayers and the International Community which has created transformational changes that are reflected in the United Nations 2013 Human Development in next. Afghanistan improved its score more than any other country that year as an improvement of about 60 . Changes of this magnitude are not made overnight, especially in such a deeply Traditional Society and challenging operational environment. The results of international civilian existence a significant but french out. A few examples. There were only 900,000 afghan children in school and virtually no rules. Nearly 8 million children are in school and a 30 percent of them are girls. Life expectancy has increased. Maternal mortality rate has declined by 80 . Child mortality has decreased. In 2002 only 6 percent of afghan said access to electricity. Today that number is 18 in the afghan electric utility is well on its way to finance stability. In 2002 there were very few fixed telephone lines and a call outside of afghanistan required a satellite phone. Today the combined phone Networks Cover 90 percent of yevgeny population and 85 percent of women have access to a sulfone. Today there are over 3,000 womenowned businesses and associations, almost 20 per cent of afghans enrolled in Higher Education are women to men and women are active participants in the afghan political process. As we enter the transition usaid strategy is threefold to but to maintain and make durable the gains that have been made in health, education, and the empowerment of women, to mitigate the x to five economic consequences of the military drawdown and to foster improved stability by supporting governments to improve the 2014 elections. Usaid places a high priority on insuring the american taxpayer dollars are used wisely. While many issues are unique to that country to maundering projects in challenging environments is something the u. S. Aid does around the world. In designing the afghanistan monetary strategy u. S. A. The incorporated Lessons Learned from on terms are on the world to put colombia, iraq, pakistan, and south sudan. I will not that these programs to form the basis of our afghanistan Monitoring Program and have been reviewed in six separate Inspector General ports as well as free by the general accounting office. Finally external audits provide useful oversight and discipline and complement and reinforce the rhone efforts to ensure u. S. Tax dollars are used effectively and efficiently. There are currently over 100 on its ongoing. The bottom line is that it will terminate programs if the agency determines that adequate oversight is not possible or that adequate Development Progress is not being made. With respect to the elections the credible, transparent, inclusive of electoral process is central to the u. S. Government transition strategy in critical to have estrogen to about strategy. We remain focused on supporting an exclusive and democratic process by supporting afghan Electoral Party and by building the capacity of democratic stakeholders in afghanistan so that they can participate in the elections in a robust and informed when. We support independent domestic observers, civil society, media, and political parties, helping them appropriately engage in the democratic process. Supporting the petition of women in all aspects of the electoral process, brought in the hiring and training, promoting public average and by Public Officials and enhancing the ability of the no candid its a campaign effectively. In conclusion, i have worked in afghanistan is a member of the department of state, usaid in the military. I have attended ceremonies for the Fallen Heroes and of reorganizations. I am personally and usaid is institutionally keenly aware of the enormous sacrifices made by americans to build a secure and stable afghanistan, and we folia understand the need for constant vigilance, particularly during this delicate transition. We are making tough decisions, pirates as investments, and looking for things that have the greatest potential for longterm success. As we navigate through the 2014 transition go we continue to be committed to safeguarding taxpayer resources and to ensuring the remarkable levels of Development Progress made in afghanistan are maintained in may durable. It is an honor to be here today and to share with you in a small glimpse of what were doing in that regard and i look forward to your questions. Thank you both. Let me start off with ambassador dobbins. What is his purpose . It seems to me that he is putting at risk is country, his legacy, maybe even his personal security. What is his purpose . But your microphone on. I can tell you what the kinds of conditions he is laying down. I would have to speculate about what further purposes may be beyond it. Although he has spoken generally about a number of different they basically come down to two as far as we can determine. One is a peace process, and the second is no entry into afghan homes, sanctity of afghan homes. On the first week, of course, have supported reconciliation, try to advance reconciliation. His position at the moment seems to be that we actually have to succeed in initiating a formal, overt, public Afghan Government caliban peace negotiation before he will sign the bsa. I have vetted to him that the talent and have no real incentive to facilitate is signing and that this conditionality actually works against what he would like to see. Not that we are opposed. On the contrary, we are all for it. That is one. The second is in the context of the bsa and in the context of in an assurance that he got from the president s along side it, we have committed to respect the sanctity of homes and operate in ways that recognize the importance of privacy and safety within the home. He seems to be interpreting that this is under no circumstances in any case even if accompanied by afghan troops and even if they are leading the operation should the United States forces participate in entering and searching a home in search of terrorist. So we think both of these are a bit of an overstretch. It could be that in the end formulas will be determined that are mutually acceptable. Clearly what he is asking is beyond where we are likely to be able to accommodate him, but he may see this as the beginning of negotiations. I know that you said that you feel that we will definitely get there, what is there a break point . Is there a point in which the consequences of not having a Side Agreement are going to you refer to some of the consequences. Certainly when i was there earlier this year theyre is a real concern about the need among afghanistans neighbors and internally in afghanistan and the people at dinner bats but having no sense of consequence for the future, specific good 2014 elections, there are there not real consequences . As part of that answer can you talk a little bit about what we are doing too, for the regional implications of this agreement and political transition, can you describe what diplomatic efforts and planning to address the concerns expressed by some of our partners in the region and perhaps through that process mitigate potential second and Third Order Effects of the transition. I think the consequences of leaving entirely is more catastrophic, but, clearly, the sooner the better. We are we are engagessed with neighboring countries. President karzai just visited iran, but hes also in, i think, three days from now going to be visiting india where hell meet with another leader in india, visiting turkey shortly thereafter. Weve already mentioned what russia, what china, what pakistan have said, so i think that with the exception of iran, there is quite a remarkable, actually, international con consensus that while the United States shouldnt stay forever, be should stay for a while longer. I do think that to the extent we knows that too; right . Part of the willingness to delay is because he believes that at the end of the day, we really is not in our interest not to stay, so in doing so, he thinks he has leverage in that regard . I think thats probably accurate. What i think the most viable leverage is domestic, that is his supporters, his political opponents, the media, the public. This is on every talk show every night. They got 76 channels of television there. This is a big topic. Its the main topic of public debate, and there is as we noted overwhelming support within the population, and im hopeful that over time, that will begin to have an effect as well as whatever advice he gets from friendly neighbors of whom, for instance, his upcoming visit to india, i think, could be influential because he highly respects and has good relations with the indian government. Timely, part of afghanistans future is in the regional integration and trade opportunities and i think thats embodied in the administrations new silk road initiative. The fy14 foreign operations bill passing out the Appropriations Committee this year i think calls for a plan to integrate your offices functions back in south and asian affairs. Can you shed light on the state departments plans to integrate sda, what challenges are there in conducting that integration . You know, i think i wouldnt say we have a plan. I think theres a sort of a general working assumption that transition in end of 2014 where we move from a large combat presence to a small train, advise, and assist presence could be a breaking point in which you make changing in which the state department is organized, but on the other hand, even under those circumstances, afghanistan is still doing to be one of thee largest certainly it will be the country in which were most heavily engauged in the country thats still undergoing conflict, and whether youd want to just turn it over to the afghan desk officer, im not sure. I think reintegration into the bureau in some circumstances, in some manner, might make sense. I mean, when he was the special end joy for afghanistan back in 2001, i was attachedded to the southeastern bureau when i was the special adviser to the president and secretary of state, i got my administrative support for the European Bureau opposeed from the secretarys office directly. I had direct access to the secretary of state. Im not suggesting nor did i thing the subcommittee suggests that it be the afghan desk officer that deals with the majorrings, but theres benefit in integration. Theres regional consequences as well, and i want to see continue development in that regard as well. Thank you, mr. Chairman, and, again, to both of you for your testimony. You know, we, for a long time, theres been a push by many to try to get the administration to commit to what the troop levels would be if theres a Bilateral Agreement agreed to, and i know theres been specific ranges that we talk about in combination with nato and special ops aside from the operation that we do unilaterally. Has the do you think to any degree the lack of our willingness, if you will, willingness to commit to foreign commitment to troop levels. Has that entered into karzais flakeyness on this issue . Probably not. Karzai has shown complete, total disinterest in troop levels or even assistance levels. Hes focused on other issues that clearly are hot butt tops with him. His working assumption is we do whats necessary as senator menendez indicated and therefore he can take that for granted. We try to tell them that American Opinion is not exactly where he thinks it is and that he is playing with fire and constructive the foreign minister of iraq visited a couple ten days ago, and met with president karzai and said dont make the same mistake we did, you know, we kissed the americans goodbye, and we need them today. Let me ask you, you know, obviously, you assess, you know, the need for troops or levels of the troops based on conditions on the ground, and you mentioned that things, obviously, are decreasing. I mean, part of having security in the country is having appropriate economic dproat and all those kinds of things and actions on his part are causing that to deteriorate. Is the situation in iraq in afghanistan, is it affecting oh youre discussing troon levels right now, and is that moving up or down based on the changes that are happening there internally . I dont think the trends have manifested in a degree to impact the battlefields. Its been, what, two, three weeks that we faced this problem that he gets endorsement for it, but zuz not want to sign is in his term of office . As i said, they already are some manifestations in terms of the economy, but they are limited. Will it, over time, effect things in that way throughout the end of the election . Possibly, yes. If uncertainty persisted through the summer, we have less allies, we have less public support in this country when we finally get an agreement, and we might have less support here in the congress, although, i hope not. These are real dangers, and would it affect morale on the battlefield . So far, not a problem. They are performing well, taking high casualties, replacing them, fighting hard, but, frankly, if uncertainty persisted and exaser based by regional interference of the sort seen in other decades, you know, you could draw unpleasant scenarios. I think we need to try to ensure it does not unravel in that regard over the next several months, but i agree these are dangerous. I know, you know, with iraq, you alluded to that, but a part of that is what we left behind was so insignificant that iraqi Political Leadership decided it was not wort the certainly grief, if you will, to enter in dpreement. I dont sense anything like that is at play here, and i do sense theres effort on behalf our country to end up with a Bilateral Agreement, at least a substantial number of folks there, to see it through, and to that end, talking about the internal situation, other than preserving our gains, how would you, as our special envoy, how would you describe what our National Interests are in afghanistan as people watch a president there turn his back on everything that happened over the last 10 to 12 years . We, obviously, have an interest in preventing alqaeda from repositioning itself in afghanistan from being able to operate with the active collaboration of a government that supports it, which was the case before 2001. This would be the case if taliban comes to power in part or all of afghanistan. They remain the link to alqaeda, no reason to believe they wouldnt continue to allow alqaeda to use the territory and facilitate the use. Thats one. We have an interest in preventing a largely dismantled alqaeda from rebuilding itself in an afghan sanctuary, again, a real possibility if the taliban comes back to power. We have an interest in preventing afghanistan from simply falling into a wider civil war, like sere syria, a mag inapt for extremists of all stripes like alqaeda, but not just alqaeda. Some with global agendas and some with desires to attack the United States at home and abroad. We dont need another ungoverned space or country like smoal ya, like yemen and syria with no capacity to control its own territory and which is an everlasting conflict attracting every extremist in the world to plant their flag, to recruit, to fund raise and use that conflict as a basis for wider action. Thank you for the answer. You know, karzai, we have to act responsibly, and sometimes when youre in a negotiation, you have an irresponsible partner, it ends up changing the dynamic in a way thats not to your advantage. Is there any part of this with the election and potentially causing favor to move towards his brother in the election . Hes been consistent in everything he said to everybody hes talked to that we know of. Opposing his brothers candidacy, frankly. So trying to affect it it any direction based on what so theres, obviously, those kinds of suspicions, particularly on the part of his political opponents. Hes done nothing to sub stanuate that so far that we know of. Hes committed to holding the election on time. He has encouraged a number of candidates to run, not just one. He doesnt at this stage have an identifieded favorite. He otherwise avoided interference one could take acception to. He, pressing concern based on experiences in 2009 about our interfering in the election. At one point, the National Security adviser gave assurances in the regard, declaring himself satisfied and he would no longer raise the issue. He comes back to it that 2009 from his standpoint was traumatic and not willing to let it go, but to be fair, we have not seen anything that would suggest this is a ploy to either postpone elections or manipulate the outcome. If you look at the Foreign Policy over the last period of time, its time to end in a second, chairman, and ill head upstairs to another hearing when this is over, but, you know, american Foreign Policy, really, weve been irans best friend, intentionally or unintentionally, over the last several years, and, you know, obviously, he entered into this agreement, which really wasnt much of an agreement with iran. I think its app agreement to agree. Yes. Down the road. It was not specific, but from his manipulative standpoint, what was he intended to do with the agreement Just Announced . We agreed to negotiate an agreement, and he has negotiated these kinds of agreements with other states in the region. I cant tell you whether this meeting was set up before we had the lawyer his trip to iran. Hes gone there once or twice a year since he became president back in 20012002 so at this point i wouldnt attach a lot of importance to it. Iran is the only country supporting him in the current stance. They are not encouraging him to sign late, but to sign not at all. You know, their position would be, you dont need the americans. Theres a lot of other countries in the region that help you, and, in fact, theres no other countries in the region that offer the kinds of assistance that the United States and its nato allies are prepared to commit to, and the other countries in the region have made that clear. Is this a gesture designed to demonstrate he has other options . Maybe. In so of keeping with the relations with iran that at this point, im not excited about it. Thank you. Senator shaheen. Thank you, mr. Chairman, and thank you, both, for being here, and ambassador, i appreciate your service in a challenging environment, both of you, actually. You mentioned president karzais interest in reconciliation agreement with the taliban, and can you talk more about that . What kind of prospects do we think are realistic . Why should the taliban or why do we think the taliban might be interested in reaching some sorpt of an agreement with the current government of afghanistan or the government after of any new president , once begin to draw down forces and there are theres less of an obstacle to their regaining power . To be fair to president karzai, hes not expecting a peace agreement, butments a process to be begun under his administration, which is what i desired and one we are happy to support if its realistic. The in fact, weve been trying to promote it for several years, since 2011. Can you talk about why what hes proposing is not realistic . Saying i will not sign the bsa until i have talks with the taliban does not give th taliban reason to talk to him. They might talk if he never signs the bsa, but hes not providing an incentive with that particular formula. The taliban have been quite consistent for several years that they will talk to us, but not the government of afghanistan. They falter the, not because of talibans bad fate, but other extraneous reasons, and we didnt get to the goal line, and i guess i would have to say that its unlikely that they will cross that in between now and april. They dont have an interest in enhancing the current regime or the elections to produce the next regime. That seems the logic thats consistent with everything theyve said. Its consistent with what we know about what they say to themselves and what they say to others privately, so over the longer term, you know, its our viewr with a bsa, continuing presence, if the International Community remains committed, if the International Financial support for the ansf and Afghan Government as a whole is sustainedded, that the Afghan Forces continue to dominate and hold major population cementers that the taliban realizes american departure, if you will, has not brought them a breakthrough, that the war continues indefinitely. There are sections interested in talking. I wouldnt say at this point they are interested in the settlement that we would regard as acceptable, but they are interested in talking, and thats a first step. Well continue to support this in principle, support it in practice, but our expectations are something is likely to take fruit once a new government has been elected, which, clearly has broad support within the country, and the international continued support into the coming decade is manifest, and, obviously, going to materialize. I appreciate that argument. It sounds on on the mistake, however, given our failure in past years to have any progress. Im optimistic. Thats what we do. Politicians are usually optimistic too, but right. One piece of that concern about what might happen with the taliban, i think, also has to do with what happens with the rights of women, and there was an article yesterday in the New York Times talking about some backsliding with respect to womens rights in afghanistan, and notwithstanding all your positive statistics, theres real concern if we leave that one of the things sack sacrificed is afghan women and what their future might look like, and so what assurances might there be in bsa that would address that issue . Well, if we leave entirely, youre absolutely right. I mean, i think the country as a whole will suffer, probably women will be suffering the most. I ill let larry talk a bit about, you know, what our programs are going forward, and degree to which assuming we have a cometted presence, well be able to administration and continue to support a program in the area of womens rights and womens empowerment. I think statistics larry indicated do have to be contrasted with significant Serious Problems women face there. On the other hand, you know, so the afghanistan has not gone from the 14th century to the 21st, but it may have gone from the 14th century to the 18th or something in terms of number of women in universities or a number of women in parliament. They are, essentially, and in some of the others, a number of women in the workplace like a number of women are entrepreneurs. Theres been some rather striking gains, but perhaps most important is the change in public attitudes. If you look at survey results going back to someone, the Asia Foundation does one every year and theres a new one that the number of men who think women should be educated, you know, i think its now 60 some percent, maybe higher, and i think much higher among people who have girl children, the number of men who think women should be in the market place, in jobs, these trends, aloe in the last year, come down slightly, i think, theyve been theres been very significant gains. Its those changes and attitudes that overtime sustain the progress made, but, lei, you may want to add something. Sure. I second the notion that statistics we cite are grounds for concern. Theres so much progress made we cant allow it to dispate. The things that strike me as most compelling are 20 of Higher Education students who are now women. We couldnt have done that when we went to afghanistan because there were no women who had primary and secondary educations, so the fact that women are interesting into the advanced Education Field is promising. It means they reached a level where they will not allow themselves to be rolled back. Another statistic thats more relevant than first recognized is that 85 of women in afghanistan have access so a cell phone so no longer relegated to a Small Back Room in a compound. They now are able to reach out, receive news, and communication. On my last visit to kabul, there was a group of women using Sms Technology to build ability to cohesively and cohairntly campaign, not for office themselves, but for issues among the candidates running for office. They drone straight a level of sophistication not there in years. Im happy to talk about, if you like, we have a program that if the situation allows us to continue to engage, which is intended to focus primarily on the roughly 200,000 women who have secondary education degrees, it also does things for other women who are disadvantaged and dont have that, but we made a policy decision that we want to build on work thats been done and help these 200,000 women find ways to gainfully engage themselves in the future of afghanistan and serve as role models so the pool of women continues to grow, but i think youre right to be concerned about roll backs. Afghanistan is a big country, women in all kind of different situations, but im optimistic if we stay, theres improvements in the status. Thank you. I want to gushed underline and exclamation point it today because of the statistics, but its important to step back and talk about how meaningful they are. Take the life expect tan sigh increase. Theres no precedent for that. I dont think the United States has been involved in anything with that impact, a 50 expansion of the life of a regular person because of the work done. It took a hundred years to increase from 3060 essentially in the 20th century, but to do 20 years in ten years in one decade is amazing. Thats been driven by Public Health for women in children. Drop maternal deaths by 80 , infant mortal di by 50 , that drives up Life Expectancy in what we see and increases in children in school, essentially ten times, almost an inmy gnat increase in the number of women in school. You have to feel a sense of satisfaction about it. I know that probably makes it frustrating what youre dealing with now, but those of you who have done this, i dont know how this polls with the American Public that we expanded Life Expectancy in afghanistan with the work done, but in terms of feeling good about what youve done and feeling like you played an Important Role in a challenging circumstance, you ought to feel pride, and we feel a sense of pride, you know, that we have been sticking with it. That makes it frustrating of the i was you alluded to Iraqi Foreign minister, and i was with him to expan on this a little bit. I was at a Security Dialogue in bahrain this weekend, and they were publicly saying, i told president scar someday dont bluff the americans. The americans were willing to stay in iraq. We wish we had not told them that and wish the americans stayed in iraq. Hes met directly, as you indicated, doesnt bluff him and dont be foolish enough to think if they depart your life will be better. Life will be worse. That is what makes this moment a frustrating one. Im cureout about your each of the sense about the election coming up and how the issue of the bsa plays into it. Assume karzai does not change the position and takes position that im not going to do anything. Its for the next person. My thought is im worried thats the role of the United States or the role of the intergnarl partners in bsa and economic aid being part of an Election Campaign is not a good thing, but professorble to get it lee solved and proceed with the candidates making their cases with that as an issue resolved. Im questioning my own sense about whether that would be a good thing or a bad thing. If karzai does not if he continues in the current position, this bsa issue has to be a major issue that the president ial candidates would be addressing or addressing it on talk shows on 78 tv channels. Who can protect them. It polarizes already divided societies. And so and, you know, in the current environment, theyve had this is the third prcial election. Theyve had two Parliament Tear elections. If you lose the election you go comfortable opposition. You have a seat in the parliament. You still get paid, you are still in the pate niche world. You are not excluded. If afghanistan is going back to the 1990s, you lose an election you go to exexiled and killed. Its the winner takes all and never give it is up. The losers are losers for life unless they spark a revolution. But you dont want that kind of thinking. You want something in which the loser accept the results. Say its okay well try again next time. In the meantime make sure i get my share which is what a lot of this is about. High levels of anxiety, indecision about the future, i think, could have a devissive effect. Even if the bsa itself is not a point of contention. Thats what im concerned with. The only thing i would add is i think president karzai is demonstrating in his resistance to sign the bsa, the distance between his opinion and the Public Opinion and the other candidates. It might threaten his role of king maker. He sees himself as a father of the state. And would weaken, in some ways the per sewn that of president karzai the spokesman of the Afghan People. The thing that concerns me more the hedging that mentioned earlier. In the uncertainty and the elections the uncertainty may be demonstrated on the hedging and the elections. We have two elections in april. And the elections are where the local contesting war lords or powerbrokers go head to head to representative their communities. And i think ambassador is exactly right when he says the population in this area, if there is a continued uncertainty will be inclined to go back to what they know. Its not necessarily see what we best for the future of afghanistan. We want them to look at progressive new ways. And again, i wasnt sure i completely understood the entire testimony. Its important to grapple with it. Make sure i get it right. The privacy of the bylaw Security Agreement has a direct impact on the promises of economic aid. By the 70 plus nations part of it. It may not be the same document. The absence of a bilateral Security Agreement cause serious concern by any party thinking on the International Level about putting economic aid in to afghanistan. I think theres a couple of impacts. And again ill ask larry to elaborate. But, you know, one is that if we dont have troops we wont have diplomatic representation. Its conceivable on the worst of circumstances we couldnt have an embassy if the countries sends in to serious civil conflict. We left in 1989. We might face a situation particularly post benghazi where the risk tolerance is low. Lets not go there for the moment. Even with no troops you should have the same amount of nonmilitary assistance. Maybe even more. But you tell me. My judgment is no troops no aid. Or almost no aid. The Political Support for the aid comes from the military presence. The people see this is important. Weve got, you know, five, 10,000 troops whatever it is. It must be an important place. Thats why we have a big aid program. If we dont have any troops, i think its going to be much more difficult also for you to justify and secure the number needed for the civilian aid program. But you know more than i do. Qn that if there were no bsa and a decision to continue to program it would be incredibly challenging. U. S. Aid are devoted to doing the best they can in desperate situations. It requires some measure of access and some measure of not just political access but freedom to maneuver. Not having a b sergeant a we would lose that freedom to maneuver. It would be challenging to program in that environment. Thank you. One last thing i would like to put on the table. This is really out of an Armed Services perspective and Foreign Relations but ties that were dealing right now with whether the we will be able to pass a national authorize act by the end of 2013. Theres expiring authorities in that act that expire on the december 31 if we dont act before the end of the year two in particular touch on afghanistan there are some others that touch on it more generally. Theres currently a program in the defense appropriation spending for re intergracious. Former taliban and others in to civil society. Thats funded but the funding expire on december 31 untiles we pass an ndaa. Similarly, any military member engaged in hostile fire is entitled to hazard use pay under the current appropriations bill. That north expires on december 31 if we dont pass it. It can affect us as well. These are important issues in the frc status but another item on the table now in the senate that has a significant bearing stability going forward. Its my hope they will act with that as well. Thank you, mr. Chairman. Thank you. Let me ask you two final questions. Which i think is important everyone i speak to tells me that security is major concern of a highest concern reference to the elections. What can be done to address the issue of polling stations and secure areas . What about security for womens polling station which hinder the ability of afghan women to vote. Could insufficient security and polarization impact the legitimacy of the election for the Afghan People . I had a briefen on election preparations from i safe when i was there last thursday. And they were pretty positive to the degree which the afghans are taking responsibility for the coordinating effectively the ministry of defense and ministry of interior are engaged with high level with the president of the Election Commission and the Election Commission is clearly in charge. And not hesitant about exercising that authority. They will be prepared within the limited capabilities, i think well have about 34,000 troops there. I guess thats the figure is american troops in when the election takes place in april to provide some of the assets needed helicopter lift and a few other things. They have plans to secure all the holding stations. Different level of commitment in police and soldier. Depending on the level of threat. I think there are three or four districts where they simply are not able to have polling stations. These tend to be quite unpopulated areas. They seem to be pretty confident theyre going to be able to conduct the election in the vast majority of the country. The important met trick to cement too is the the afghans understand the problem with women polling stations much better than we do. I think basing on the 2004 and 2009 elections, we are on track to meet the afghan expectations. Its not to say i cant assure you it will be resolved completely. I can assure you they are devoting resources to as i mentioned in my remarks focusing on ways to networking and campaign together. Focusing on training women searchers. Women polling station sovereigners and women polling station workers. Those are things through the election Assistance Team and through the independent Election Commission. We actually think we will be better off issuing than we have in previous elections. Im glad to hear that. I appreciate the nature and understanding the afghan expectations. I would hope our expectations would be to the extent feasible as high as possible. And we would be working toward that. Senator, certainly. When i mention resources we i did voted to this. What i meant the bar we would accept and the International Community accept is probably not going to be reached. Tbhaw gives us something to strive for. Let me ask two final questions. Fair amount of discussion hire. Weve which we should be thankful for and supportive of. But it seems to me we have seen some backsliding in this regard particularly when i see the lower house of the Afghan Parliament trying to weaken the landmark elimination of violence again women law. And the u. N. Releasing a document that basically report which indicated only 7 of registered incidents of Violent Crimes against women went to a judicial process using that law. What steps does the department intend to make to relay to the Afghan Government we are looking for a vigorous implementation of the law post 2014 . Well, we of course work directly with the parliament on legislation of the matter and bring our concerns directly to the attention of individual parliamenttarians. I believe they havent succeeded in weakening the law you talked about at this point. The threat to coso there. T enforced decree rather than legislation. The fact only 7 Violent Crime goes through a process vision of the law. Im wondering laws are great and but not unless we make them actually enforced. So i hope that with all the resources and efforts were putting in here that were making it clear point of our continuing relationship here that the enforcement of the laws critically important. Absolutely. And clearly we have programs designed to support both the effectivenesses of the police and judiciary in general as well as in the specific area. I dont know what i dont know what proportion of violent criements in general end ingoing through the jew judiciary in afghanistan. It may not be any higher than the interesting in getting feedback from you on that. Sometimes primary means of evaluating a program. Given the environment in afghanistan, theres a lot of skepticism about relying thirdparty monitor. Can you explain what type of monitoring you using evaluation in afghanistan. How they are being implemented, and i think this is a area that the singer suggested will be an audit of. I would like to get preview. Certainly, senator. Would you mind if i added something to the violence against women issue . The elimination of violence against women is one of the key elements of the tokyo accountability framework. Thats a multilateral donor commitment to the governor of afghanistan if they demonstrate progress on several hard deliverables. We would reciprocate and recognize that. The passage of the law the United States has attached incentive funding to those two actions. And there is money in the pot not going to have government of afghanistan unless and until they accomplish those. In my last meeting with minister of finance hes keen to see these funds released. So we are focused on that and making sure that the afghans understand our insistence on progress. If i can note, again having worked there since 2002, im thrilled theres an elected government in afghanistan that is debating laws. We may not like right now where they are in the debate. At least we have partners question engage with in a normal sort of state way and to influence. Because we didnt have that for the longest time. With respect to your question about third Party Monitoring, the first point i would make is unfortunately it has entered the arena of public thought with a very heavy negative connotation. Third Party Monitoring is what we do all over the world. Im an electricity engineer by training and university and studied physics. I not be able to go out to any program in afghanistan as a u. S. Government direct hire and provide usaid meaning information. On so in every case around the world. I would literally dont believe theres a Single Mission in the world that would not use some fort of third Party Monitoring. Having said that, afghanistan is different with respect scale of the problem, the complexity of the problem, and the security situation and restricted movement. My concern is im not against all third Party Monitoring. Thats not what i suggested in my question. Its specifically third Party Monitoring in an environment such as relates to afghanistan. What disagree degree are you doing it in afghanistan . What is the changes you face or doing more direct monitoring without a third party through aid and. Our contract offices who hold the warrant to approve or disprove programs have to have a certain amount of information about the program. And how we provide the them information in afghanistan is something of an adventure or challenge. We have come up with a multilateral set of project and program that provide the information. On the one hand, partners selfreport. They have quarterly and weekly reporting requirements. It go the data base. We hire Third Party Monitor and correlate the information they provide which partners provided. We . In the past used isaf to validate its ongoing and provide photographic evidence. We have used technology such as overflight with photographs, for example, large agricultural project. Flying a plane over and taking photograph. Its a best way to measure progress. For other programs social program making sure schoolteachers get paid. We use Sms Technology. We actually interrogate the sms networking of School Teachers and say did you get your paycheck . We get feedback from the teachers themselves saying they did or did not get paid. The answer to your question is really were being innovative and creative in afghanistan in ways we have not necessarily been forced to innovate or create in other countries. But were devoted to making sure that Contracting Office who put you in his or her shoes is probably a 28 to 34yearold young professional with usaid with enormous responsibility say pay the bill or dont. We want them to have the information they need. If and ever a contract officer raises their hand and say im not confidence i have what i need. We stop the program. Im my concern for us to continue to be supportive of the type of money we are pumping in to a country like afghanistan with all the challenges weve already talked about. Were going need to have some sense of our ability to assess what were succeeding at. Our what our Delivery System is doing. What are the effects . Because when we have to respond to the american taxpayer. They want to know. And inevitably when we get to an area, i think aid does a good job. But inevitably when we read a story from a report like the future that suggests that we just missing the ball saying we will see that. It is a real consequence to the policy opportunities here. I want to pursue this different hearing in a brotherhood context in general. I think its im a big supporter but we have to have accountability to be able to continue to have that flow of support whether in afghanistan or beyond. Ive got, my questions in that i want to ask. I want time for senator flake to get here. With that, senator mccain. Thank you, i appreciate. Im sorry i wasnt here to hear it. I reviewed some of it. Ambassador, you talked about in your testimony that conclude the bsa. Because they recognize that instability benefit either. What assistance are those countries planning to provide over the course of the agreement over the next ten years . Are we the only one on the hook for the assistance moving ahead military and economic and otherwise . Not, senator. They vary in term of assistance level. India has a substantial assistance program. Substantial for a selfdeveloping country. China has some significant investments in afghanistan. There are about 70 countries that are part of either the isaf coalition, or such as japan, for instance, provide significant economic assistance. And as i said in earlier, one of the reasons that we believe that the by lateral Security Agreement needs to be concluded as soon as possible is so that coalition, really substantial coalition of substantial countries who are making substantial commitments deployment pay the afghan armed forces, i think we anticipate that about 20 come from other allies. It doesnt begin to deteriorate. Countries dont begin dropping out. They dont use the excuse that the afghans dont seem to want us. The afghan president seems am bev lent whether we should stay. To not fulfill commitments they have made over the years and not to continue to participate. But the larry can probably tell you what proportion of economic assistance comes from nonamerican countries. If you include the International Financial institutions, i think we are well less than half. Going along that route, ten years from now, why should we have any more confident that the economy will be able to sustain the government anymore it is now . I realize you need security and we know those arguments, certainly. But when you look at afghanistan right now hard pressed to look at an area or sector the economy that will step up in the next ten years two actually replace some of the rev gnaw were providing now. Why should we feel any differently . Congressman, ill give you the specific example is the proliferation small and Medium Enterprises in afghanistan. I wish i take full credit for this. Its just ordinary, decent capitalistic activity. There are as the population in afghanistan becomes more educate, and as they move from the world to the urban centers, there are markets that werent there before. And its been our experience small and Medium Enterprises generate a lot of Economic Activity that will sustain gdps. There are sectors in afghanistan if we can take you to iraq where the Mining Industry is doing quite well and on being exported to italy. Up in there were value chain around some of the Agricultural Sector that the north has a strength in. Theyre preparing and shipping to the industrial asian state subpoena some of the agricultural products. The general answer last month we launched a new program called afghanistan train revenue program. It is focus on generating trade by working in the region not just in afghanistan to your point, mr. Chairman, about the regional integration. It works in the region to lower real and perceived terrorist to regional trade. So theyre packaging their own juice and shipping it across the region. It also has a component increasing revenue. That is to help the custom officials and collect the revenue and put them in to the coffers. One of the point i focus on with the minister if afghanistan is able to achieve wto succession in the next couple of years and the program will support that. It has historically in a situation of cub likes afghanistan generated 4 to 5 increase in ged gdp for the first time year. A net gain of 120 before it flattens out. It wont completely make up for the gdp loss by the military draw dawn. It will offset it. And put afghanistan back on a more stable glide path what we consider a transitioning or gopg country. All due respect, that was your talking about and ive been there and recognize some that have is going on. Its on the very margin in term of what is needed to sustain government and its pretty bleak picture, in my view. We did a study when i was in the house and on the committee about the trucking contracts that are currently enforced moving goods between military bases as we contract local afghans to do that. I think last count about 20 of the afghan economy. Just trucking contracts. That as were paying for to move good around. When that goes away, just tells you how much the indication of how much the economy relies so much by our presence. Thats why its is startling that karzai is resisting this bsa. So i dont pretended to understand that. But i just think we spent a lot of money there obviously 683 billion total in afghanistan, and military economic aid, and that for promise that some of this might hold up after we withdraw just its a tough foil swallow. For those of us asked to authorize and appropriate Additional Fund over the next ten years. And so i just want some sense of why we should think that ten years from now well be in a better position than we are right now, and well be having the same argument ten years from now and asked to extend another agreement that provide a lot more funding. I just afghanistan should be able to see a return on the investment. Afghanistan is not in ten years going to be a were hoping for benghazi will dash. The focus is on the line of govern mans that allow afghanistan in modest ways to incrementally improve their lot. Ten years is a good first step. We want to make sure we are giving them the assistance and Technical Support they need. Its as positive scenario as can be in ten years. Let me ask briefly, senator. A lot will depend on whether afghanistan faces the same security challenge ten years from now it faces today. The largest driver of the afghan budget is the security costs. And the largest focus of american assistance is helping pate security cost. We have programs across the region to increase regional integration. Probably more than anything else it depends on pakistan over the next decade able to gain control of the own territory particularly the border region and stop allowing the territory to be used and destabilize afghanistan. If those things happen, and i think ten years is a period during which its reasonable to hope they will happen. T reasonable to plan on them happening. Then i think afghanistans capacity to otherwise fund its own Government Operations may be, you know, may be capable within their own resources at that point. Thank you, mr. Chairman. Thank you, mr. Chairman. Thank the witnesses. You think they are able to function of the government . Assuming they arent face an insurgency, yes. Isnt about 95 of our economy right now a u. S. A. Aid assistance funding . Well, no, its not that high. Its certainly significant. Its not just u. S. , of course. Where does afghanistan rank in the world estimate of corruption . I believe its i believe there are two other countries, yes. And i understand then, paid close attention to the problem we have with president karzai on the signing of the bca. Excuse me. On the strategic bsa. Have we announced what size of the force were going leave behind yet . No. We had intended assume that the bsa was concluded this year to announce it early next year. Why wouldnt we want to define for the Afghan People and maybe for the congress what those roles and missions would be for 2014 . And even beyond so that they would know maybe Congress Might want to know. And arent we seeing a repeat of what happened in iraq . And my version of what happened in iraq may differ. But since there was on the ground, i will schedule any other interpretation than what happened with senator graham and lieberman and i. When mall lack i can agreed to have u. S. Troop presence. Then they decided wasnt worth it. Now we see everything unralph in iraq. Why wouldnt we tell the afghans and the American People what size frankly the unwillingness to sign an agreement that the text of which is fully agreed