Years younger. [laughter] which is one of the reasons i agreed to let them. Anyway, and they tell me that that will be uploaded to the website in about two weeks, three weeks most, and you can just search under the archives for this day for one of the names of our speakers or mill valley and you will find it. So if after this program you feel so inspired, please watch it again and also tell your friends and family all about it. Let me introduce two nights speakers. David brady i have known for a number of years, partially because my husband attended Stanford Business school where he is a professor, and i dont know that dave remembers what actually interviewed him a number of times during my own dissertation research. You remember . All right. Well, i must have done okay because he is talking to me. Okay. Dave brady is not only a very well respected professor at stanford, he sits on the faculties of the Business School and the Political Science department, runs Public Policy and is at the hoover institution. So hes very highly regarded. Obviously connected to the stanford community, but also appreciated it nationally for his insightful commentary about political processes. We are really delighted that is with us tonight, and you go im sure all and this evening agreeing with me that he is one of the most insightful political commentators that we have with us today. Melissa caen is the political journalist in san francisco. She has a very wide following. She does a lot of work with the Commonwealth Club and the editor of the Commonwealth Club magazine said theres no one who is better at doing a job of both moderating, asking questions and providing political commentary as melissa. So she comes with really pretty terrific bona fides. And i think that this conversation should be wonderful. I dont know if it will all make us feel safer, more secure. [laughter] happier, but it will certainly inform us of whats happening. And, of course, please save your questions until afterwards and will have time for them. Thank you so much. [applause] there we go. Okay. So the name of the Nights Program is the future of american Political Parties, and with a packed house tonight and the can imagine its because you all think things are going really well. I think theres a lot of uncertainty out there, a lot of you out there. I think my first question of course is how bad is it . How bad can it get . At what point do we start of hoarding canned goods . [laughter] is this on . Know. Spirit there you go. Is on . Well, i want to start by quoting t. S. Eliot who said that the only form of knowledge that we can aspire to is humility, and humility is endless. One of the predictions i start with. What kind of trouble . We have not had a president like this or we have not had 10 or however many, 11, 12, however many days it is, weve not had a president that has behaved like this. So the question is from someone who is charged of analytic and step back and say whats going to happen, so in the early days there are certain things a president can do, the refugee cards, et cetera, he can orders out, not that theyve been put up or efficiently but he can put orders out. But in the end on the big issues, taxes, Affordable Care act, military policy, those sorts of things, the user has to go through Congress Party basically has to go through congress. The question people often ask is is congress an independent branch of government . The founders, they put the constitution together, they, tried to put this in an objective way. The founders knew that you might have political operatives that probably were not grant. [laughter] grand. Spirit that was pretty good, right . So they built a system that it checks and balances and thats what the checks and balances are for. I think so the question is, but i dont think its the congress that will stop them. The democrats are obviously not going to decide. Its going to be the republicans in congress. So im going to give you the most likely scenario, or in my view, are other sinners that could happen . Should. The one most likely, the republicans in the house have been sitting on an agenda for six years, in their view frustrated by president obama, et cetera. So we want to pass that agenda. They did not think that the republicans would hold the senate and they didnt, certainly did not think donald trump would be elected president. They look at this. I think what theyre doing is sitting there and sing okay, we want to pass the tax cut. Past we can pass that we can agree on, and they are not in complete agreement on the Affordable Care act. They understand that they own it now. They could screw it up and make the obama rollout look like silk so they understand that. So they are going, my view is there going to wait, wait and get as much as a cam through. And at some point in less the president changes his behavior they are going to say, thats enough, you cant go anymore. Two republicans are already going to vote against his nominee for secretary of education. It was announced tonight. So they are starting. So its up there. You can hear occasionally from them. What youve got to watch for is i think you to watch for how Congressional Republicans i dont expect them in the first 10 days or 20 days, if youre thinking that going to impeach them quickly, not going to happen. But theyre going to start to object. The only other thing i can say about some of the appointments is, on defense, i know jim mattis. His office was three doors down from mine, very solid, very clear thinker. Doesnt want the job to bobby told the president he shouldnt torture. Agreed that he wouldnt have signed the iran deal but he would keep to it. I think the treasury most appointments i think they are reasonable people and i think, i wont go there. Im done. Say what ever you are not saying. You have people like jim mattis and other people in his cabinet that are wellregarded. He goes behind the back and issues an executive order on the refugee van. Stay, but if you want to call it. How long do the honorable people in his cabinet stay on if he continues to do these things . I dont have an edge to do im sure, im sure some of them are thinking, what did i sign up for . So normally what i think of when on Foreign Policy of which im no expert but but i think what happens is that you have to have a strategy. And then theres tactics. What bothers me about this president is theres tactics, i think, but i dont know what the strategy is. So theres symbolism and there is reality. Think of it like this, there is campaigning at theres governing. Trump turned out to be a much better campaigner than we thought but now he has to govern and thats a different thing. Foreign policy its symbolic. He said he would build a wall so that he is telling his supporters ive got to build the wall. Whats the purpose of building the wall . Does he really believe he can cut a better deal with the mexicans on trade . Already businesses, lots of businesses are already objecting and there in washington talking to congressmen and women and saying dont do this. The same thing in regard to banning the muslim refugees. He just puts the United States more at risk, in my view, and iran, they are iraqis who with us. It come as far as i can tell it is symbolic. It has, theres no strategy behind it. It may be there but but i havet seen it and dont think many people do. I think those people, so tillerson, you may not like the fact he was at exxon or Something Like that but he is a very accomplished man. He sees the way the world is and im sure he would not have been advising to do those things. We have to wait and see what they do and i dont know what the right time for it is. They it now. Theyve only been in office like, tillerson, one day, cant quit now. [laughter] i think it will take amount of time. We will see. I think theres always the belief that the president will, the president will stop tweeting and, and does anyone believe that . [laughter] theres hope. [laughter] spin i think hope is charity. [laughter] spinning you said right now we need to be focusing on republicans in congress. If you are democrats, it seems they are a little on their heels. Not all in the sense they didnt think he would win by since november 9 or so they have known theres a Court Nominee coming is going to be someone their constituents are not going to like and yet they still seem to be trying to figure out how to navigate this situation. I think thats a reasonable thing for them to do. Its the same. So if youre a democrat, tijuana do you want to make the republicans pull out nuclear clause and say okay, well go with the majority instead of filibuster, a or do you think hold your fire on this because the nominee does not agree with his own opinions, that is really smart. I think they are probably right to be thinking about when you throw the balance. Well, theres pressure for them to filibuster kind of everything and spend the entire next several years filibustering on everything that comes in front of them. I think that just plays into trumps hands and makes his supporters feel that he is right. The systems broken and they wont even agree to my nominees. And that democrats, remember, pastoral but that it only has to be 51 and you couldnt filibuster cabinet appointments. People said theyll come back and it has good stood then they decided not to attend senate the meetings because you have to have a quorum plus 100 oppose, so that is why they sat out. So then you couldnt actually called the meeting. What you think that looks like to a tribe supporter whenever the democrats are in the room. It seems to me that please the two dare hand and allows them to justify his behavior and continue to act symbolically and substantively. What do you think it would take to separate Trump Supporters from trump . Some of them at least. There seems to be this court 30, 35 or so who know matter what you change your view of the world to fit that. What would it take in your estimation . So, we ran my friend professor started the economist poll certainly win over the course of the campaign every Contact Survey where he interviewed the same 5000 americans every month or at least once a month so we can actually trace where and when. So in may, we were sitting around all of these smart guys, looking at the candidates, about 20 of them in trumps name came up and everybody says dont put him in. Its not a serious candidate. Just for show biz. That turned out to be a good thing for analysis because he was the manner list of people. Turns out from other work weve done in europe that we know people who thought their familys income was down for their Family Financial situation was not as good as it once a year or two ago, those people across europe were much more antiimmigration. So we had on the first go, people the first choice of those people with no choice. They didnt have a preference. Number two with scott walker 12 . Trump comes on just the antiimmigration speech, which you have to listen to it, hes out. Cant say that in american politics. Suddenly hes at 22 . 40 republicans that thats what happened to their financial institution. They perceived it that way. The result is he speaking their leverage. We had another question, 58 of republicans thought emigration was a very important issue. Suddenly had 41 of them. In the 19 person field, hes got 23 . That puts him twice as high as anybody else. Then the republicans frontloaded the primaries to switch to a more winner take all format, all giving trump an advantage because hes the early leader. The others are fighting over who will be the establishment candidate. Rubio, bush, christie. And the other price are fighting over whos going to be tea party candidates. The arena, so on and so forth. We will never know if the republican establishment had been able to get a candidate and put it in the eternal. We were never going to know. Those are special circumstances in which he was able to capture the nomination. So those are the voters that supported him all the way. Highschooler last come anyway you cut it, they were the people most important. The question is how we are trying to find this out now, can he continue to hold them with, you know, stuff that isnt real or a results oriented . That is can it be symbolism or do you have to be action oriented . I happen to believe they are results oriented. That they are going to be people who want jobs. They want these things to happen and if they dont happen often in our latest poll we asked the question of Trump Supporters who were democrats in Trump Supporters who are independents because they are the ones that taped it to them and ask them the next election, which you consider voting democrat . 70 said yes. I dont and they are tied to the Republican Party. They are tied to tampa bay. I think well find over time they are results oriented. The Democratic Party will have to do what its going to do, but theyll have to rething how they think about and talked to those people because voting day for obama and then switch. My hometown, obama in 2008 and 2016 in illinois. Its not really, but it was okay. So the question is i think he will be resultsoriented. Thats a great question. I cant tell you an answer. In the course and head on something i want to explore more. As part of what the democrats problem was people saying i perceive that im worse off than it seemed like some level the democrats if there was no, statistically speaking their income has gone up 4. 3 . Your cbp is an analytical or statistical answer to a country than sort of cry. Yeah, i think those statistics dont appeal if youre in illinois and your children dont have jobs, and illinois, the white males over the last 20 years r. 3. 8. Did three playmakers like the before. There are drug epidemics all over there. And like you said earlier, they havent spoken to them. Its been pretty much that they are there. I dont take identity politics. They dont care much about identity politics in green bay. I think they dont care where you go to the bathroom. I think what they care about is the democrat for the republicans does anybody actually care about them in the jobs theyve lost and what their situation is . Is it possible to put that together with regular democratic stuff . Sure, but theyve got a think about it exactly as you say. They havent talked to them. Youve written and spoken about globalization as a big part of why things are happening here and in other parts of the world. I forgot who exactly said it, but i was watching probably cspan. Someone was saying, you know, people are losing jobs and the democrats answer is here, we will retrain you. The cesareans are to the massive loss of these potentially good paying jobs. Why should the answer have been in your estimation . Id like to talk more about globalization in the election here and elsewhere. You dont ask in a very easy questions. Could you talk about the Electoral College . [laughter] heres the reason i dont take it easy. What globalization does so you looked at the first. But theres big globalization, 1850 and 1900 or so. In 1858, the two major job categories for people who either worked on a farm or serving tongs. Then theres this huge transformation and people were better off economically for that, but they move but they move to the cities in a factory jobs. And that creates a lot of problems. Immigration was an issue. It was called the gilded age. There was wealth inequality and you can expect that every time theres globalization. Thats not going to go away. Theres going to be inequality. So that switch, all these people in factories and put a stop to firearms. What happened was by 1950, those people had good jobs. My father was able to support a family of six children. We didnt we had a home. We had a house and so on. The politics at the time, there were labor parties and antilabor parties. Democrats and republican, could be a twoparty vote, but there were parties to the left prolabor and party to the right that were not. Over time the happiness beginning and then it can 70s, people start to automate those jobs. So 50 of the workforce in 1950, by the way its nice to say to an audience that is so good in the 1940s that harry truman could get reelected in 1948 by campaigning on 14 b. Says. You try that with stanford students. [laughter] they dont know who bill clinton was. [laughter] its true, they dont. They were like two. They werent even born yet. So at any rate, the jobs lost in some of them move to china, et cetera. It is really odd omission that caused that. Across the road as you mentioned, the nationality france, Peoples Party of denmark have any part in germany, all over europe you are getting this antiimmigration this question commends rice what happened to these people and industrial jobs. As those gods country and jobs go, local parties are stuck because they dont have 40 labor. So then you try, so the party has to do stuff like trying for bluecollar bluecollar workers with stanford professors. Professors are 90 democrat. But that works okay. But if you go to a bar and put bluecollar workers there, it doesnt work out too well. They dont have chardonnay. So thats the problem that no one thought that problem. So what i worry about is not jobs. I dont worry about jobs to match because as the farmers, people go back and read history and see the mccormick reaper, what will happen. None of these people have jobs. So they all got jobs. What i worry about his wages. Its not clear to me that the wages these jobs generate will be enough to sustain the political system. Is that coming from berkeley . No, just kidding. Have heard that comment about stanford. But thats a great point. When you talk about things that can playback, thats another issue democrats that unemployment is low. But the wages for a lot of these jobs are incredibly low. Leftists in that the Unemployment Rate is accurate, being employed at 7. 50 an hour isnt the same thing. That is correct. I think you have to have economic growth. If you dont have economic growth, the market gets stripped so you can hire people. I dont even know if growth of one would cover it. Without growth i know you cant do it. And then you have to say well what are the policies . I dont think telling the Ford Motor Compa