[inaudible conversations] we are going to discuss a new subject what does russia want . We dont have any russians here but there quite knowledgeable experts on russia. With the institutional and political perspective. In arabia caused even more confusion so what America Needs we would probably give one answer. With as the nations security advisor and with did a very different answer and then to change significantly and then another possibility president has discovered incriminating conduct regarding other american interests. This is a very important interesting topic. The director from Georgetown University also with his books from the state department as a scholar and a practitioner sojourn of both russian government in the position if you want that perspective you will get it spirit these are too tough questions. So i will spend bedtime talking about what does russia want . If i were tweeting i would say russia with like the United States to treated as if it were the soviet union as a great power with global reach that as the seat at the table with the International Decisions as the super power and the country that is respected by the rest of the world and one day the United States treats as unequal but the kremlin believes the United States has not treated them as legitimate. It is also true look at the past 25 years with the u. S. Russia relationship we have treated each other as equals more deadlines have converged in the fall of 2001 the russians were extremely helpful with the do Nuclear Arms Agreements with the number Tissue Fusion at work with the war in afghanistan and the russianamerican cooperation on the Syrian Chemical Weapons issue but it is also very important mocking and what russia expects the United States that defines the security perimeter with the borders of the former soviet state and with any institution if it is any closer to the borders it is a uh direct threat to the heartland so now before the elections those in the kremlin dented one donald trump to be elected at that conference in october last year the president praised donald trump has of populist to understand the resentment the masses have and of course, president putin himself looks at himself as the populist leader it was clear whether russia was hoping for for those sanctions that were imposed at the beginning of the crisis in the ukraine because that is something precious with like to see lifted. The during the Election Campaign is undoubtedly true the perception of russia of meddling and contributing did have an impact on the white house with the rhetoric we have heard about russia so i would say whatever the truth is that is counterproductive to improve relations with the United States. So the expectations in the kremlin were lowered there rubino grand bargain and then to mobilize the relationship to the point that we could discuss at what point are wriggling back words but that means establishing regular channels of communication with the dialogue on difficult issues some of the results of the secretary what does that show the interest Going Forward . So talk about what is going on in syria there is a hint of further discussion on syria with the name to word ending the civil war which is vague at the moment or to resume the Bilateral Dialogue apparently the most difficult issues if all this sounds familiar nobody should be surprised in the past 25 years to see remarkable continuity in a relationship with russia between democratic republican president s the issues dont change he usually takes a little longer for the Incoming Administration to understand the learning curve no doubt this time it was accelerated from the syrian chemical weapon attack. Can russia achieved any of the goals . Will it gain the recognition from the United States . I would say the fact the president in his inaugural address talks about promotion talks about future interest and that has been important looking at the next president ial election. But will the Trump Administration be emboldened over the post soviet space . That is not clear if you listen to the cabinet officials would indicate what the president has said over the past two weeks about russia it will lead one to question if they would be forthcoming. So what does america need from russia . Led to think this administration gabelli to have meaningful cooperation to bring this serious civil war to an end but that is highly aspirational because we have very different views. U. S. Would like to work toward a viable solution in the ukraine. The u. S. Would like Russian Support of course china is much more important part russia does have a role to play as it is of party in the dispute and more generally will like to have russia as a constructive player this has been consistent over the last 35 years with those issues that have been alluded to at the beginning we are still very much in the beginning of the definition of what the u. S. National interest are in bieber a beginning to understand that more than it is possible to work with russia on these issues we need a better sense Going Forward. The final question to what extent do we overlap or conflict . We can say in theory we both want to fight terrorism but that is difficult we both save you like an end to what is happening but that is elusive. I say our understanding of the solutions to these problems we just have very different world views we have to be realistic about the interest that we do have with that limited range to do the best we can to improve communication and Work Together. Informative and and very wise but i will ask u. S. Simple question. The options are remitted at best with all of those disagreements to have mentioned greg. I maybe am not as worried but i know the rhetoric of the russian side has spent quite surprising recently. I do worry about the danger of the unexpected mishap leading to an escalation that it is hard to pull back but i guess i am hoping restraint will prevail on poolsides. Russia has a number of very experienced diplomats and leaders i hope that will prevail. Up next steven is the director from the Nonproliferation Initiative and was ambassador and is a skilled negotiator and knows a lot about the region very well and he is a very important perspective. Is the pleasure to be here today i start with the observation that compared to for five years ago we see a russia that is much more active most obvious is of ukraine with the seizure of crimea. But also just a broader interest in terms of tone midwestern military at a pace for or five times what it was five for six years ago with those clout will Close Encounters with nato and the russian aircraft and the ships this is against the backdrop of a modernization effort so to the point where the Russian Ambassador in copenhagen feels they are targeting denmark with Nuclear Weapons and then has concluded that it be adaptation to russian interest so they are looking for three specific things. Us base without the people to states and to begin between United States and europe and will talk about each briefly but first of all, with the sphere of influence and i do not believe putin was to recreate the soviet union in part because he understands that would have a negative economic set of consequences for russia because they would subsidize that. What they do want is the stipulation that they differ to moscow on key issues in this includes the countries such as ukraine or georgia with the European Union they also oppose the opening to russian business also uses those as the way to increase the leverage critical pressure as russia has maintained a good record. But the number of embargoes like georgia ukraine or belarus is an instrument of russian policy with the use of the complex like croatia were crimea those that had Russian Forces to occupy a territory for when the soviet union collapsed in 1991. Also looking in the post soviet states the kremlin tries to avert the revolution and then again in 2005 the way he talks about these he does not see it as a manifestation of discontent but these are organized by western security forces. I think that is the wrong misinterpretation. The second is with nato and the European Union to say would be a political option russia deals with the European Countries on a bilateral basis so to understand that point of view when you talk about the e. U. Member there is a difference there of economic power. With the europeans enlargement these are driven by the United States with the goal to bring military force to the russian borders but dont think we can change that perception. In terms of the rules there is evidence cyberwarfare is used it is not an accident the politician that was to moscow from the election you also see the use of military to intimidate the west and what i worry about it is raising the risk of miscalculation on the part of russia to raise the concern if it does not change course european cable every few months to say it could be resolved if the russians could actually bring something to help solve the problem but this is where they dont like the European Union because they dont have a seat at those tables if you sit down with the american president to decide but i think the russians are not having success with this strategy they remain committed in the post cold war era those other reflective of the western interests and values and there wont be a lot of excitement about redefining that around the sphere of influence you had a period of almost 20 years where nato was thinking about other things with Counter Insurgency with those russian tactics now have nato refocused on article five and then into the Baltic States the European Union has a lot of problems including those in moscow to be remarkably unified and those that they would like to incorporate. So we know what russia wants mrs. Of managing differences this is the big difference over ukraine. It appears the russians at this point pass up the opportunities to resolve that. It is hard to see how they come to terms of that perhaps nato and russia could discuss but alight with they have done the last several years there taking steps and the last question is what they mean but the russian violation it is hard to see how we get more cooperative from the russians but the secretarys approach in moscow is the only way it will work before we get to a point where we can get back to more normal relations with russia. If i understood you correctly talking about what could be accomplished but correct me if i am wrong but the conflict then ukraine would escalate. Your not worried about things like that if greg. With the question of ukraine you will nazi a major escalation they understand theyre at a point as the moon to the west so they may have more partisan activity so this allows them to focus on some very real problems but dont see that escalating. Is more risky than it was for five years ago. Uc these pictures of russian aircraft and to put confidence of the russian pilot from the old u. S. Navy commander it could be a problem very quickly. Up next we have paul from the center of National Interest i know him well because of the creation of the center day he was the assistant director and with the state department as a Senior Research with humanrights issues. So one of those helped to organize to be responsible recently traveling to moscow to interview the foreign minister there were as a level of respect or familiarity and comfort of from the chemical attack and syria in the hope he will explain to us in a particular i am mystified of the Trump Administration the reason this i am not aware of a single american who would do Something Like that battle so interestingly tuesday its bid is undignified. So white with they expect that would be done unilaterally by the United States without anything done on the russian side . I will start briefly with that and i will move to my remarks which focused at the International Level with the division of labor to focus on different aspects of this challenge as far as the sanctions are concerned my sense there is the change of president and the United States many people of russian for policy suddenly think to themselves now the americans will finally recognize them mistakes they have been making over the last 10 years and now they will correct their errors. I remember vividly in the transition with the yen coming Obama Administration was expected to make changes on the solvents with the ukraine and georgia joining some of us rasping those in moscow if the United States is prepared to make certain changes but would russia be prepared to do corrects slowed the response at the time from a senior russian diplomat is your correcting your mistakes portion redo anything for you when that will benefit the United States . So we hope that they would be lifted and that it would arius and we would recognize what we were doing wrong which of course, is that variants zero most people think of the situation. Looking at the main focus of what does russia one i will talk about two things with they dont want is out of this affects the United States and then i will make a broader point. The first thing is the Stable International system to allow russia to focus primarily on its own internal challenges and problems. Los to aspects to the International System from the russian perspective duplicates that but one element of the International System is rule based with deferrals and one key component for the rules the restrain the misstates the adn that the use of force is a major source of instability which of course, is another area that most americans have sharply different views that second element what russia would like to see internationally is strong governments better capable of controlling their own territory to ensure that terrorism with other forms of instability and to use that formulation what happens in serious days since syria. Then the river of she choose to think about it. Minnesota to manage uh territory and would never they consider necessary under the circumstances. Now both of these elements with a Stable International system so with those preferences we obviously preferred and International System with a broad flexibility probie her for insurgent want governments that our responsive to the population and this comes into conflict that russia is much more comfortable with i dont think they are opposed to democracy trying to promote authoritarian is some. That is a way to look at the issue but the real russian concern is the transition from authoritarianism to democracy in the transition and because of the of los circumstances is very comfortable working at the democratic governments. So i dont really think it is the issue. So talking about the e. U. And nato at the risk of being glib those that would prefer to work with the ec the you with the wealth and power with the working with individual members that in a broad sense having a similar objective of working individual with government with very different means there are a lot of other governments around the world that did not have that capacity to avoid with the weaker players. With my next comment i will try. To have a role in the International System that satisfies that image i would argue a couple of components is a difference to the vital interest but other major powers because that is where much of the conflict comes into the equation. [inaudible] it on. [inaudible] [inaudible] [inaudible] what russia wants from the International System. The final thing i would say is, about the United States and how we think about what russia wants for the International System and how these two things over lap or dont, certainly the United States also wants a Stable International system and we want one that continues basically to reflect our values and preferences and interests. I think one thing we need to ask ourselves about the International System is, is russia on its own the greatest threat that the International System faces today . I would argue, probably not. There is another fairly significant threat to the system coming from china. Then there is a third danger which is actually the threat to the system of cooperation between russia and china to undermined the system as a whole, which i argue is a much greater threat of actions of either of them separately along those lines. So thinking about that challenges america and my priority would be to think