Simple world to American Foreign policy since americas preeminence after the Second World War and based on a very simple binary. Who can we bomb . Who can retake out to lunch . So china is a unique country because they went from being a country that belonged on the two bomb list to take out to lunch list. And it has become a lunch so therefore it has become far more interesting. Before we get started with michaels comment and i am questionandanswer with him and then open it to questions and answers from all of you we have a message of some congressmen randy foltz, chairman of the china caucus in the house of representatives dared he could not join us in person, but his message to life in his comments will be read out by my colleague, carolyn stewart. As secretary of the hudson and two. [inaudible] its a pleasure to have an opportunity to share brief thought on the hundredyear marathon and the contributions of dr. Michael pillsbury to the internment is the important debate about the future trajectory of chinese power. I have long valued the insights on china and the asiapacific region. The combined knowledge of chinese history culture and politics with an understanding of u. S. Security and the tools required to protect those interests. Whether its a congressional staffer, member of multiple president ial Administration Consultant to the pentagons assessment for Hudson Institute scholar. Dr. Pillsbury has rendered important contributions to the understanding of china and its longterm relationship with the United States. Part of what makes the hundredyear marathon such a unique contribution to literature and American Relations is the evolution of the issue. Rather than simply choosing the camp and sinking comfortably within it as happens far too often on important issues mike c. Is on china changed as the facts on the ground changed here it is honesty let him see china as a longterm competitor at the united date requiring eras application of longterm competitive strategies. He has been a powerful voice articulating what the strategy should look like. As we look at the century ahead its more important than ever the u. S. Look to the u. S. China relationship holistically and in the context of a longterm extended competition that will play out over multiple areas and over the course of many years. Im committed to ensuring the presence in the asiapacific particularly the military round remains robust and his continual evolving to meet new challenges. Areas like unmanned aviation, the u. S. Enduring advantage in the domain and our advantage and emerging technologies must be appropriately resourced. I want to thank you all for the work you do in promoting a strong u. S. National defense and a continued u. S. Presence in the asiapacific. Its americas commitment to the region that is done so much to ensure peace and prosperity for the last seven decades. We have an opportunity to put in place policies that allow the present to endure another seven decades and beyond. This is an important book by a serious thinker in the field and its recommendations offer much for policymakers to consider. Thank you for allowing me to share a few thoughts and i think Mike Pillsbury for his invaluable contribution. Hardback what i would like Michael Pillsbury to start off about his book. As i see it, michael the question in your book is a discussion of the china dream and how the u. S. May have unwittingly or unwittingly helped fulfill that you. A good starting point for your conversation with us with the describing as you see it as he understood it over the years and also to answer the critical question which is what is the china dream is to replace us just as the British Empire without firing a single shot. Michael pills very, welcome to this discussion. The mac thank you ambassador haqqani. But answer your question about the china dream bike leaning a few things in the book that i think are new evidence about chinas secret daddy g for what china calls 100 year marathon. This is not my idea. I also point out today that chinese believe correctly that we area near 65 of the 100 year marathon. That means 34 more years to go. So theres a lot of things on the american side i propose in the last chapter that we can do. They are related to what the china dream is because to some degree, what you might call the American Dream and the china dream are compatible. It is not a zerosum you cant have your train if i want to have my dream. The overlap is the focus of number of organizations in washington d. C. That i not only praise, i say we have to ask and their budget. They have to do more. Instead of praising the darkness and the candles already going. I love several of the last chapter of the recommendations. Number one the National Endowment for democracy has done a great deal in china, has to do a great deal more. Its budget became very low. It has same president has always had. Hes like a lifetime president of the national and dummy for these. Needed numbers reaches and has seen his budget grow 10 times bigger than in the beginning. He attended the oslo ceremony valeo shovel received the peace prize and was not in there because you is in jail. I say a lot about the chinese ring and when i met him at the tian an men square demonstration. Teen ambassador at the time come up your thompson and i drove down to Tiananmen Square in the embassy cadillac with the flags going, got out of the car went in to see the students. No one knew of course. No one knew what was going to happen. They appear to be a peaceful demonstration at Tiananmen Square against corruption of all things. We met with the others. But remember he is a chain smoker. Here at evish glasses on. When the president of the National Endowment for democracy went to oslo he had many other countries who were either there or not there was your attention in china. The china dream is in fact have what they call the harmonization or harmony in the world. Their position is when this happens by 2049 if not sooner all countries will get along and there wont be organizations like the National Endowment for democracy. There also will not be trouble from human rights watch, from Amnesty International especially not radio free asia which some people in the room helps me create radio free asia in 1989. Resisted strongly by the state department. This will destroy u. S. China relations if we broadcast in mandarin about human rights and democracy in various things in china. I dont want to give all these organizations named. The u. S. Chamber of commerce has recently joined up. Peashooter report about the gangster is stationed in china. Trade secrets being the one. Chinese companies treated in a favorable way. American companies not. The china dream seems to be quite comprehensive. They say dont worry. China will not be the hegemon will not be a tyrannical country and ruined the world america has been. Want to mention chinese means you although remember and keep with you. They are important to understand chinese thinking. One of them is off. It also means tyrants. It is the way america leads the world. The china, when it has double or tripled our economy, today has surpassed us according to World Bank Last month through the chinese economist arrive by 2030. It will be doubled. The chinese economy will be double us by 2030 and by 2049 the end of the 100 year marathon for the books title chinas economy will be triple or more our economy. But they say china will not eat at that time. China will use its virtue soft power and perhaps the military forces when theres disharmony and countries do not go along with the virtuous leadership. This is all part of their vision of the china dream that in some books they actually talk openly about the american model how americas surpassed england, Great Britain without firing a shot by a series of techniques to chinese believe their studies of American British relations have shown them. Theres one book in particular called the eclipse of britain a british professor who explains in london for the 100 year marathon americans ran against england, there was an antiamerican faction that said dont let these americans get out of hand. We have to crush them or use force against them in the caribbean and panama during the time of theater is about you also a proamerican faction that said america is just like us. Theyre surpassing this is no big deal because they arrest in the chinese view things the marathon should not have the use of force is part of it ideally. They are quite sensitive in their writings to who is due in the period who is the healthy forests . A friend of china someone needs to be supported and praised them visit beijing and who is an unhealthy forests . Who is trying to setback a 100 year marathon process . That is a whole chapter i give him what i call the Message Police that is actually becoming more and more difficult. It is more and more difficult to get just the straight facts about u. S. China relations because theyre so much spin applied by either the Chinese Government itself or americans who claim to have an enlightened understanding of u. S. China relations. Thats kind of a long and other and if i remember after i wouldnt give such a long and very. Im trying to get into why i wrote the book how the chinese thing, how much i borrowed from their own writings to have slain in a sympathetic way this is their dream in some countries in americans and art nations are in the way of the 100 year marathon. They have harsh treatment in mind for those organizations. Great. The very first chapter of your book is titled wishful thinking. It starts up at the incident involving the chinese artists trying to correct the pronunciation but you know what i am becoming more like americans now. You know how they say if you know several languages come a peanut to your bilingual and if you only know one american, youre american. [laughter] id aladha good jokes about americans. Tell us about the incident and my ledger book with it. My wife and i admire them in loving chinese art. A lot of chinese tong nine e. Sculptures and chinese delegations come and save you china you could give it back to the motherland. China has 150 billionaires chinese art is going up in value. This particular artists performed something called the exploding Christmas Tree about a month before christmas my wife susan had been the cochair of the gala that raised 2 million for a National Asian art museum and the next day, secretary of state clinton gave an award and there was a big payment made to this artist to blow up an american Christmas Tree on the National Mall. Everybody applauded including me. Big crowd here is your officials. Secretary clinton hold of this memo for contributing to diplomacy for our. I wondered, how can this be . Why are we paying so much money to blow up the Christmas Tree so close to christmas on the National Mall . As i say i was applauding. Then with the help of one of the defectors. I discussed six defectors in the book in disguise. One hopes we check out the artist and i found all kinds of things that i had not known where think the smithsonian or state department give it is quite a nationalistic guy. He talked about 9 11 as an artistic start goal to behold and he said his Favorite Book was a book called unrestricted warfare about how to use terrorism and cyberattacks to bring america to its knees by two chinese colonels who i talk about in the book there is the socalled hawk faction. Beginning with the story i would show how susan and i try to help chinese art how we go in good faith to see the show and how we learned theres a bigger story here than we realize. In many ways hes having a little fun with us. We pay him in as part of a larger story than on traditions mark twain has the great novels called adventures of tom sawyer and one of tom sawyers immortal tricks as close to chinese strategy. He has to whitewash a fence. Hes been fun ash fork. But he tricks his friends into painting the fence for him. How does he do that . He appeals to them. Only the best person can paint this fence. You cant have the brush and mail it to learn chinese nonaction to control through nonaction. Part of another concept we could all say you sure are smart. Flux or situation are doing things earlier than the other guy can do them. So tom sawyer getting his friends to paint the fence for him is all part of the same idea. Hes the other countries for Search Technology to win the 100 year marathon. I try to show one year of the defectors told us this is what china is doing. An extract from the book are we americans dont see china the way it sees us. A condition for decades. Nature proverb that says in full view for a more practical terms in plain sight. As one of the 36 strategies and essays from ancient chinese folklore. All of these are designed to defeat the mobile component by using the own against him without him knowing hes even in a contest. Explain. Will. Well, part of the reason the title of the book the hundredyear marathon, subtitled the hundredyear marathon chinas secret strategy to replace america as the global superpower. This is not openly declared strategy. Use a line from an american movie called the fight club. The first rule of fight club is you dont talk about fight club. China does not openly describe the strategy. They are very sensitive about being exposed. It goes back to a secret quote that chairman mao himself told other leaders in 1955 and repeated a couple more times to have a very hard time getting the quote of the chinese. The quote from now is chinas greatest contribution to all mankind is going to be to catch up and surpass america. Now tells us all access will take us from 50 to 75 years, but weve got to do it. He begins fully from the soviet model in the communes, 20 to 40 Million People died to make it onto the new approach of the secret strategy. We need to follow many aspects of the american model. We need the americans to paint our fence for us. How can we do that . To do a lot of analysis and realized Im Technology investment exports to america, giving companies that come in and provide hightech china, all of this package weve got to get it if we will implement chairman maos concept. They begin to do that in 1969 with four chinese generals write a memo to mao. They say we need to follow the example of the three kingdoms 280. We need to bring the americans over. We need to bring nixon to beijing. At this point, nixon and kissinger are issuing antichina comment by president nixon gives a press conference figure 69. But in the Ballistic Missile Defense System china not the soviet union. In his new book, kissinger reveals five times the chinese invite nixon to come to china. Five times the americans either dont get the message or turn it down. It is in kissingers book. Specifically at one point a letter i didnt believe existed. It is a letter from the chinese to president nixon. Please come to china. Onepage letter in the archives, the original still there. Kissinger says return of down because it was too risky. The problem understanding chinas secret strategies until these documents are declassified on both sides we dont know how the secret strategy bpm and how its working out. I got the security review authorities that declassify these documents in the american president ial decision and also part of the chinese story became to come out. I hope others will follow me and try to trace the secret strategy. It is denied by the chinese at first. Then you say what about the book by general on the memo of the four generals. What about the americans not taking the initiative to open china the china open up america. Chinese officials of scholars say yes, how did you know that . We make progress unraveling the true history of the secret strategy on the chinese side. These sickly it is declared land and americans think that their china that is not necessarily that clear than 36 stratagems in folklore and something that goes back to 280. Hes history. It doesnt matter. Powell this country understand that another country that thinks in 100 year terms . We are lucky people can have an eight year plan when a president gets elected for the first time and assumes he will get reelected. How does america do with this . Been what i tried to do was put the issue of china and meredith of our relations with china on the president ial Election Debate agenda for 26. Mitt romney has a chapter on china in his book, no apology. Romney brings up we need to be more competitive with china. But there is not much of a debate. What i would like to see in 2016 is our media who would really dominate the issues. If Everybody Knows Judy Woodruff and jim lehrer and fox news will raise the topic in the president ial debate, you better be ready. If the media starts saying what is this all about, is china doing these things to us . Are we naive and gullible . Will get our president ial candidates to become engaged at the top experience so far only two have talked about it. Elizabeth moran has a comment on mine were elizabeth ward is talking about removing jobs and how they invest deeply and infrastructure. She gives a percentage of gdp. Shes admiring the chinese model. If only america could be like that. It is quite good. The title is roughly we used to be like that. There is a similar book by richard hollis, called Foreign Policy begins at home. Expection on china competing with china. The idea of fair but not yet a president ial issue because they are going to collapse is very backwards. It are. Can look down on non. But besides we open up china. For the ones responsible. That narrative is all wrong in my view. I tried to show with the new evidence in this book. China and south oksana. I think thats a president ial candidate kind of question that would be the pills very dream as they ask all the candidates what about this look the 100 year marathon . Have you read that . The candidate says no, what book is that. You the American Dream china trade an hour talking about the pills are your dream. Our dream is that you would actually share with us the haqqani dream for this afternoon is free to share what you describe in your book as the for assumptions made by china. I want you to sort of tackle the question of economics because militarily the United States has much more military progress than most countries in the world including china. So this challenge you talk about them and maybe a secret strategy. But what do you say to somebody who bothers doing is developing themselves more economically. So essentially you cant blame china for it. But the chinese are doing is they have a better plan. Thats exactly right. They got the plan from us in the world named. Iacoccaa charade and i show how did the chinese design their current Economic System . They got in large part from a combination of the world bank, imf, american economist and a wonderful defector from taiwan who swam across to china ends up going off to the university of chicago to put a phd in economics from the conservative economists in chicago goes back creates an economy that will break the rules of the World Trade Organization will appear him about his wife why its called the capitalists. In fact will be roughly half the mound and the Government Intelligence Services will provide trade secrets but they steal from other companies around the world including germany. They give them to the state owned enterprises at the chinese called the National Champions. A state known company that is going to get on the forbes five hundreds list of the fortune 500 list. Does anybody know how Many Chinese Companies is to be on the fortune 500 list 15 years ago . Zero. How many today . 90. A fifth of the listed chinese companies. Many are stateowned. This approach in part from the world rank. I was telling the story hes becomes a famous economist. What does the United States do about mr. Land . Bob zoellick a friend of mine makes a nice president of the world bank and chief economist. Serves for five years. He and other economists in china have a forecast now is chinas growth rate will stay at 7 to eight. Another 30 years they believe deeply in the marathon. China is on the right track. The question you raise about economics than 100 year marathon im trying to say actually they are really not following the rules. If you look at the chamber of commerce, World Trade Organization cases in the u. S. Trade representatives in a report on china our government is very quietly saying you know come you guys break the rules all the time and theres an effort by some organizations in washington to see the chinese even more before breaking the rules. Right now the hot topic in our business pages in washington and beijing is something called to be i. T. If youre an insider email about the vat struggle going on right now. The hottest topic bilateral investment treaty. Our idea is the chinese promise ill treat American Companies operating in china the same as the National Champions. The talks are secret. But theres a general discussion in the press that they are not going well. Theres another trade negotiations going on. The chinese are excluded from the transpacific for example. Same idea. The tpp as it is called by insiders pretty much says you cant have state owned enterprises National Champions be doing what china is doing. So they are not in the talks. They know the entry price is going to be to acknowledge that they have these Gigantic Companies that are unlike any company in the world really. Maybe the Russian National resource is, but to have the ceo chosen by communist hardy, according to the communist Party Decisions to feed thespian nosh from other companies in the world trade secrets to give them low price loans to have ambassadors of the ease with the message in Pakistan Airlines need to have this done. Maybe he do it. I dont know. Theyre not supposed to show favoritism towards individual companies. I shot or of the capitalist charade is quite important if we focus on the chinese Weapon System here are chinese missile there that is important, but i would have much military and here. People think this is pentagon trying to raise money for the new longrange bomber. It isnt even in here. It will cost a half a billion dollars and they would like to see about a hundred of them. Some indiscreet air for officers have said this is all about china which they love because they can say we need this. This is not about military things. The economic, technological and political challenge from china. You talk about the 100 new bombers, but also how American Manufacturing is really still struggling. It is only going down like that. The weight it needs to be reinvented as to what the purpose is to be replaced manufacturing for Something Else and that is not yet happened. Verify that youve listed in your book. [inaudible] i wasnt making fun of americans. I was sharing jokes which are meant to make people think about certain things in which mistakes are made. You also have a joking about. Now that youve poked fun at my joke i have to stand up its a russian joke. So mentioned in the book a joke to a shared with him by soviet diplomat in 1969. The tbg tells me you have prediction of events in the year 2000. Nixon says yes we have such a computer. Could you tell me what the names of the members will be done . He laughs and says your computer is not so sophisticated after all. Nixon says that answers your question but i cannot read it. He says why not. While it is in chinese. [laughter] so the fourth assumption you have listed in your book are number one that engagement brings complete cooperation. You and i probably agree on that one. In my book ive made the same argument this is general tension in the state department that engagement is to cooperation and nobody gives any margin in the other side actually manipulating the engagement. That is something that is interesting. The second assumption is that china is admitted to democracy as you believe that is not the case. The third assumption is china is the fragile flower. It is not going to be militaristic he had the pressure in china, they will collapse. Then the assumption china wants to be and is just like us and that is where i started the conversation. This is an assumption until it was i was 18. For example, ive always argued no al qaeda doesnt want the same thing. A guy whos going to kill themselves does not want a better life which is what the American Dream has cut a better life. The assumption that everybody wants the same thing as undermining American Foreign policy and ability to deal with the rest of the world. And the final assumption which is very important is china talks her week. Tell us more because you seem to suggest they are not as weak as americans estimate them to be. The Chinese Military hawks are friends of mine. I think that my name and make knowledge mints. I say this book would not have been possible without them. They have i hate to say the words suffered, but i dont like it. They are kind of a parliament. They are kind of crazy for words sometimes use. There are errors on civil. The last one they dont like, be not of power. But a chinese hawk is in the government, wears a uniform in many is. Wrights books to highlevel Party Members and participates as what you might call it Political Force in china. And identifies some of that do the book. In one case a couple debates going on right now. One is should the constitution of china be above the party. It should be above the communist party. The hawks of course they know. The party is supreme. The party knows what to do. So the constitution is a good thing but its below the poverty. This has consequences for the rule of law and into china. That or kissinger not to dwell too much on him, that he told everybody he was very charismatic. Dr. Kissinger flew to china. You can get this online now. A youtube video. At the age of 89 three years ago four years ago was a mistake stadium of 100,000 chinese. Everybody singing mouse homes for rent songs. He thinks dr. Kissinger for coming from a for coming, makes a short speech. So the idea that this kind of the future china. He might be the next president and this is a good team because poor people have kind of a program. The military hawks like them a lot. Things didnt work out and now theres some new material online. Looking at reporters in the front row. The new material online that there is a standing deadlock of three to three over whether they should be put in prison for not whether hes a good guy. Mustering back now dr. Kissinger likes him. They vote three to three. They had to call washington because fusion pain was here. This is media rumors only. Hes very Sensitive Information inside china how they choose their next leader. Allegedly Vice President she called back. Which then leads to a gentleman who is the head of the Security Services in china, also understanding and he gets arrested is going to jail for life. And some military officers either at the stadium or they were doing other things. Those military officers arrested and are going to jail for life. So we get a treat here into hawks versus doves in china. This case it appears the hawks may have lost. As soon as president excise takes office, he takes the other six members in the top seven guys in those groups. He takes them to a temple called the National Meeting of the china. Susan and i went there. Everybody should go. If you want to understand 100 year marathon, is laid out in this museum. By design, bigger than louisville or british museum. In it the 100 year marathon is laid out. The first one is 1842 mac 1949 kind of demonizes the americans by the way and then it talks about the next 100 years. The restoration means restoring china and a quarter to a third of the global gdp. So president in his first time on it president is going to pay homage to the hawks view. Then he starts having a series of meetings with the Chinese Military. He starts praising them in the indicates that he really likes them is receptive to the fox two of whom i praise in the back of the book. Two generals who is particularly close to. Hes written a long essay on how everything good comes from more. The other is a Major General who i met at stanford, came to stanford. A lot of these guys are welleducated. They have taught phds from berkeley and Political Science. Phds from berkeley and Political Science is one of our assumptions. Engagement if you engage upon local home and become a democratic activists. These guys get phds in clinical science. They go home and demonize the endowment for democracy. The americans are out of start a war. There is a joke about the wrong school. You get the idea. You also talk about the american immigrants about chinese history in great detail about the chinese strategy and of course the whole subject of how china is influencing others. But im not going to get into all of that because i want to open up to questions from the audience and im sure there are many. To my request they would eat introduce yourself an affiliation. Short questions and let us try and get as many as possible. Hands up for questions. Why dont we have the first question right here. Dr. Christopher ford author of a very important book on china. I believe your rosecolored. Ive been reading your book you thank you for comments today. To the extent not having read it i have a quibble that would be with the issue of secrecy in the title in a sense it occurs to me as if much of what youre describing isnt in fact all that secret and there may be my question builds upon that. It strikes me as clear for quite some time that the chinese officialdom has been very resentful of u. S. Privacy on the world stage. Theyve been assessed in a way in which the wrong fall on the world stage with resolve as they see it as a whole litany of foreign depredations and humiliation. Theyre convinced by which it is an unfairly deprived of a been dedicated for the last century or so to the idea of natural rejuvenation in return. Evan focused upon their International Relations theorizing the idea stage in the world system sets the rule for that and assume should be particularly appropriately virtuous he stayed arise from unlike the United States or the british but the rest of the world will spontaneously inharmonious become into conformity with the norms and values of that state. These are not singson anyway secret. My question for you is to the extent these are themes of chinas longterm strategy which id be willing to accept that they are believed they are, these are hiding in plain right as ambassador haqqani mentioned a few moments ago. The interesting issue almost becomes chinese secrecy about this and what it is about us and our policy community that has refused to see what has been hiding in plain sight. I like to ask you about that. Tell us a little bit about how it is and why it is weve responded are not responded in the ways we have two this fairly nonsecret strategy. Excellent question. There are aspects of chinas secret strategy that really are secret. What you are laying out correctly, the themes of the chinese narrative covered in your next book on how the chinese see america from assorted anemia or that is broadly known in china, some of those things on the National Museum walls of the various things he laid out. For example, the need like snow or clean and to avenge. Avenging 100 years of humiliation. The museum walls and chinese books that where it becomes secret is the techniques and means that are used to implement these brought teams missing about five or six of the broad themes. The book is linked. It will come out november 1st. Because i thought ive got to lay out evidence of the secret strategy. I was not in control of the evidence. They had to go to fbi, cia and dod in a fourthplace security review they took many, many months to remove a few things about most of it out. It is a message to china really that the security review authorities, in some cases senior officials got involved that they let the material in here out about the secret nature of the strategy. If they had not done not the book wouldnt exist. Fly to hong kong and moscow and i was not prepared to be like private Chelsea Manning and say to the press as he allegedly did and will spend most of his life in prison because of it hey look at all these cables. So i put together the evidence that i was taught about the secretiveness of the strategy. The dissector interviews, some other materials and i submitted it in the fact that its been approved to be made public suggests that somebody somewhere wants to send a message to the chinese. We are not as clueless as you thought. At least some of us understand what youre up to. So broad teams that you laid out, but the implementation is often quite unknown to the public. The six defectors i start out each chapter with a defector story. In one case one of the defectors says Something Different from what you and i might think its chinese strategy. She tells us and she opened they gave billion dollars. She sings Elvis Presley songs in english. China does not engage in proliferation behavior from the top tiered is only these rogue companies. She has a series of very wonderful pleasing stories about u. S. China cooperation is going to be unlimited. She has access to the president. This is all quite wonderful and other defect or suffer because they have a different story to tell about chinese strategy. One day she was arrested by the fbi for espionage and i tell her story in here. Later on the fbi issues a couple of reports, how foolish they were to believe her. The fbi is not released. The fbi is not released in the report of what she actually told the chinese. Side make an appeal at the end of the chapter where i have a kind of spy versus spy series of case studies. Chinese spies against america. I was clearly a victory for them. The fbi will not release the Damage Assessment report yet. I call upon them to do that. Another spy for china who was caught admitted it in court in alexandria and 86 was found dead he allegedly put a black trash bag around his neck and associated himself. He wasnt able to tell everything he had passed to china. He said he had been doing it for 30 years and he was an employee of the cia. That is another one for the chinese side. In the spy versus spy story that im hoping to entreaty to read the book i try to bring up the secret aspects of the strategy that implement these broad themes. How is that as an answer . Does that satisfy your question or do you think thats dodging the question . As i understand it, because a lot of the open, but the word secret, we can quibble about it but what dr. Pillsbury is actually referencing his secret implementation of the methodological proper sort of copout plan and thats what hes talking about in the book. As we always want people to do when we have book events here what you to read the book. Would have interesting discussion last night at politics prose. The chinese children and said well, this is not secret. He went a little bit further. He said china doesnt have a strategy at all. This is part of their common line. Our leaders dont know what theyre doing. Guangxi sue has written an article in Foreign Affairs magazine. He wrote an article a few years ago said china has no grants refugee. We are just kind of hapless people feeling groping stones as we crossed the river. So the opposite of what you are implying, that Everybody Knows china has a secret dread e. G. The chinese position is we dont have a strategy at all. We are just doing the best we can and it certainly is in the grave. I hope you read the section in here where i gave the account of their denial of having a secret strategy. Ride in the back. Right behind you. My question has more to do with how do you view the essay part of chinese politics decisionmaking process in terms of the institutional setup . The chinese leadership has an area challenges that has to base. He laid out the plan to take over the United States in 100 years. But they had the fiveyear plan, 12 and 13 year plans. We know policymaking is not in the Top Committee level. There is no special member representing Foreign Policy. Im just wondering if you zoom out a little bit how you think the chinese leadership will weigh Foreign Policymaking. She think it will be much more heavier than the foreignpolicy agenda and you think the regime is more inward looking than outward looking for fewest in the communist partys primary target is a power. Foreign policy plays a big role in decisionmaking. Do you think a hot view would be representative of the foreignpolicy thinking just i can write a book about american politics and my interviews the tea Party Members. They just depict that. Thank you. If i understand your question correctly, you want to answer by saying china is focused only in word and has so many problems in only a few hawks are tea party equivalents. Only a few of them want to have Foreign Policy. If that my boat recently wrong . So i would say maybe not. The chinese leadership idea of domestic policy as he put it for at least 30 years or maybe longer has been what i said about tom sawyer getting his friends to paint the fence. To solve our domestic problems, we need help in the world outside. The way they often phrased it as china peaceful security environment in which to flourish domestically. So its a little bit of a trick question youre asking. Its not foreignpolicy. That is a junior topic in china compared to domestic issues. The domestic issues can only be solved with what . Exports in the outside world especially americans good more foreign and direct investments make it 25 more foreign for months in indiana. Is that just a natural thing . The chinese leaders work hard to get american hightech investment in china. Its one of their top goals for 30 years. Is that a foreignpolicy idea or is it domestic policy . We need to get the americans to whitewash and paint our fence for us. Theres a whole series of things that chinese leaders stayed in their speeches for what they have to get from the outside world and in some sense the outside world owes them because of what chris ford mentioned the century bad treatment of humiliation by foreign powers. The secret strategy in the hundredyear marathon, what is trying to explain, if we use what ambassador haqqani is warning us, dont use american concept that Domestic Affairs are somehow two different things. The only way to win the marathon is going to be successful terms of trade, investment, technology and goodwill. It got to get goodwill on the United States and other neighbors. This is an extreme foreignpolicy goal of china. Tried to understand for the American Point of view is more important to understand then assume they are classified into their structure. Yes, exactly. I loved your opening comment that americans like to see a country is someone we should bomb or take the lunch. The chinese have strong feelings about that. Were the ones who should take to lunch. Right here in the front. I noticed you mentioned very briefly the Senate Inquiry back in 1996 which uncovered an attempt to chinese to directly influence the u. S. Political process. It is much worse today. When you look at secrecy or transparency, can you talk to us or expand on the idea that theres much more influence on congress and the American Democratic process today than there ever has been particularly in a very diplomatic way. They imagine off a lot of people on trips, et cetera. Well, i have to be careful in this area because i dont want to slander people in say you just say that because chinas avenue 100 million. That is considered below the belt attacks at our political system. What i would rather say his praise the part of the chinese secret strategy, which is really brilliant. Back in 1999 i had a chance to have met with this beautiful woman in china. I dont understand what she did. She had a huge building, staff of 1000 my host said youve got to meet her. So we had a long talk. She gave me some books and magazines and i still have the photo. Im going to put the photo online on my website. She is now the most powerful woman in china. Shes a vice premier. She was here recently to visit with hillary clinton. The two of them had a conference together. She came up with something called the confucius in suits. Theres 350 of them in america. They offered money to universities and sign a contract to teach chinese chinese civilization. What is wrong with that . This has become quite a controversy in the news vapors of the world. What exactly is going on here . Or how you bring an old one down. No thats not really part of our Confucius Institute program. So this is all legal. Its in the billions and billions. Its all over the world. Susan and i went in to see one in south africa recently. Massive Confucius Institute in south africa. Having a huge kind of soft power impact. This is focused on the next generation. It isnt giving 100 million to an 80yearold today to influence his or her views, its looking at the next generation on college campuses. So thats something that i admire. By the way, the ladys name is lio yin dung. And she actually laid this out to me in the meeting. I always have an embassy escort in beijing to make sure i dont get in say the wrong thing and take notes and yet you come back. Amazing. She actually laid out in this meeting we feel we need better soft power around the world, you know could you help us . And i didnt fully grasp the significant resources, the billions and billions that were going to go into this program. And the Confucius Institutes is only one of many programs, cctv is just a very breathtaking operation. Thats the chapter in the book called the Message Police. And i try to express admiration for what theyre doing. Completely legal. You say in the book and ill quote from the 17th century to the modern era missionaries and researchers who visited and studied china were socially led to accept a fabricated account of chinese history. [laughter] chinese sources played up the confusion and played down the bloody warring state spirit. So i guess thats the point youre making here. Yes, right in the middle. Now hes slipping away. Hes got work to do. [laughter] [inaudible] school for advanced international studies. My question is about u. S. china relations in the context of two Third Party Relations that are in the news right now; specifically, north korea in the context of the cybersecurity and the nuclear discussions that are going on as well as with regards to hong kong and the democratization debates and discussions that are taking place. So id just like to get your opinion on how you think that those two triangular relations are going to play out in this context. Thank you. Well, thank you for your question. Hong kong and north korea the chinese secret strategy for the 100year marathon is not to upset the americans. This is sort of like criteria number one. So in both cases the chinese official position, as i understand it, we want to help you on north korea. We oppose, you know Nuclear Weapons on the peninsula east in south korea either in south korea or north korea and we want to work with you americans in the sixparty talks or bilaterally or however. You know we support your american goal. So thats very good news to americans. And in hong kong the chinese position has been, oh the worst thing that could happen is use of force, you know by either side. So thats good news too. And they say that chinas going to implement their agreement with the british until when . 2047, just two years before the end of the marathon. So yes they will have the Chinese Government will have some, you know, lighthanded role in previewing the candidates to be elected in hong kong, but not to worry about in this, you know they will still allow an election which is according to the rules, the agreement with the british. But of course they want, you know candidates have to have have to have legal, you know they have to pass the test before they can run so thats all the Chinese Communist partys going to do, is to vet these candidates to make sure theyre okay before theres an election. So both of those chinese positions you notice the subtlety there. Dont directly confront the americans. President xi has a new slogan, he calls it the new model of great power relations. And in the new model, the rising power is going to peacefully replace the old power without a war, and president obama you would think would accept the new model. Because it applies specifically to places like hong kong, north korea, iran, a number of policy issues. I but actually, president obama has not accepted the new model of great power relations. This has caused a lot of concern in the china. And my friends, the hawks in beijing, are saying, you see . He wont accept the new model of great power relations. This proves the americans are out to get us, to overthrow us to encircle us and to dismember us. President obama and his team have given a different explanation. They have said well we president obama gave a speech, actually saying over time we need to try to develop this new model. And the chinese say, well no, no you need to accept it now. Our president spent an hour and a half with you at the summit talking about it. We dont need to over time move toward it. And susan rice ghei a speech at gave a speech at georgetown over a week ago. She said something similar, we need to operationalize and move toward the new model. So we, too, on our side were kind of giving lip service in public. Yes, u. S. china relations are just filled with cooperation and happiness. We Work Together on north korea and iran and a hundred things climate change. But, oh, when you start examining the details, somehow north korea still has nuclear webs, somehow the Hong Kong Election system did not get fixed, its not going to be a free election. There are a whole series of things that when you put the microscope into the agreement i mentioned the bilateral investment treaty problem too well no, we dont quite have agreement there. And for china this new model of great power relations not being accepted by president obama or secretary kerry, he made a speech on it, all the senior figures in the administration have said very, very subtly we need to move toward the new model, but this is really one of the its probably the biggest single point of friction right now between the u. S. And china. And if you chi to get an oped try to get an oped piece written or go to our media, imagine this big president ial candidate debate in 2016 and someone says well, how do you stand on the new model of great power relations no ones ever heard of it in the mainstream media. But yet in my humble opinion this is the key point of friction right now between the u. S. And china. And Everything Else comes under that. If we cant agree on accepting the new model the chinese proposal for a new model then the americans have not accepted the idea that china can peacefully rise like america did against england. It means the americans are still considering at least coercion gbs china against china and possibly the use of force. And then the hawks in china read into that also the rebalance warships, war planes. You read ash carters speeches, he says we should focus our Defense Research and science now on the pacific and india. You write about chinas seven fears yes thats another chapter. Which is another chapter. I hope that answers your question. These two things are part of the larger issue of accepting the new model or not. [inaudible] thank you. Michael, two questions. One, where does taiwan where and i how does taiwan fit into the chinese 100year marathon strategy . Second question, if you look at chinese history since 1949, many of the top leaders or top leadersdesignate were actually brought down before they became top leaders. And some of the top leaders who actually became top leaders they seemed to have pursued the, you know, totally the, you know totally opposing strategies or policies. Xi jinping obviously, pursued a much more assertive policy than two of his predecessors. How do you think the chinese were able to maintain the consistency of a 100year strategy . How do they do that . The chinese do maintain a longer term perspective than the americans. But as a previous question suggested, they only have like a fiveyear plan for five years. So how do you, how do they maintain the consistency . Thank you very much. Well its two questions. On the taiwan question the chinese vision of the 100year marathon is taiwan is on chinas side. Part of their secret strategy is to pull taiwan over to chinas side. And madam dung and her member of the building i talked about the mission of the United Front Department is focused heavily on taiwan. They want the taiwan media, taiwan businessmen of whom theres, i dont know, almost a million now in china they want taiwan to come over to chinas side. They believe its a strategic mistake to alienate taiwan. Their strategy in washington is very similar. They want taiwan to sort of not be part of the conversation. When we announced the rebalance and the pivot to asia theres no mention of taiwan. Now your second questions a little bit related to taiwan. The hawks in china some of whom sometimes a candidate as you say, goes down the 100year marathon b strategy that i write about in some detail has been debated. T not a clear blue print blueprint. Theres power struggles over how best to implement the marathon strategy. And its caused the death of a number of leaders. Its not a casual debate. You know jihad we surpassed the americans. Chairman mao told us in 1955 our big contributioning is to surpass contribution is to surpass the americans, you know . The next year he said maybe just 50 years. Then he shortened it to ten years. First he he said 25 then he said 20. Mao made a series of speeches, these secret speeches. And by 58 he was saying just ten years we can surpass the americans. Especially in steel production. Well many people are going to die over that statement. People tried to tell the chairman no, we cant really do it in ten years. They get fired or they get killed. And the debate comes up again in 1971 when mao and the four generals i mentioned said, okay lets bring kissinger and nixon they wanted nixon first. Kissinger kind of inserted himself into it. He admits it in his memoirs. They kept saying president nixon should come to beijing or an envoy. Dr. Kissinger said obviously they mean an envoy has to go first. Twice. So that led to the death of roughly ten chinese generals. And mao sort of winks and says to nixon, you know its in the declassified documents, mao says to nixon some people didnt want you to come. Dont worry about it. [laughter] he meant hed killed his top ten generals who opposed this x. To this day and to this day the mystery of this plane crash thats heading to the soviet union crashes in outer mongolia, and the chinese narrative is, well, theyre traders. They tried to kill chairman mao, they opposed nixon coming so they ran, their plane ran out of gas, and they all died. And others are put on trial later on. Theres another story, as you know the gang of four story in 76. Maos wife and the others in the gang of four, they have a different vision of how to do 100year marathon. And they commit suicide in jail or they spend life in prison, a couple of them have come knockout now actually. So this is a come out now actually. So this is a life or death struggle, how to do the 100year marathon. Theres several things you cant say in china today if you want to stay in the party or the government. You cant say i dont want to surpass the United States. Id be happy to be the small little brother of the United States forever. No. You cant say, you know, the dalai lama is a very handsome guy. [laughter] why cant we invite him to beijing, you know . And let him go back to lhasa for a while. Theres a whole series of what they call the nine dont says. So youre alluding to with both taiwan and other issues these very bloody power struggles thats part of the chinese them. If youre at the Confucius Institute and youre learning chinese and you put your hand up and say what exactly happened to these generals who were killed in 71 and the gang of four and you know why cant the dally dalai lama come, no. Its not on the curriculum of the Confucius Institute. So youre raising kind of sensitive, embarrassing questions. But i hope ive persuaded you that the goal is not up for debate. Surpassing america is chinas greatest contribution to the human race, unquote. So final three questions right here in the front you at and then the gentleman at the back. We wont have time enough for everyone, but im sure michael will be here to sign books afterwards [laughter] and, therefore, you can can ask him some questions in person. Please go ahead. Hi, mike. Nadia [inaudible] with the Liberty Times taiwan. In the context of your books or your assumption, you know, how would xi jinping is going to sit, he seems to be more openly talking about chinas dream and with some pretty concrete proposal what china should do in his tenure. And the second question is that do you see maybe this is going a bit too far, but [inaudible] soviet union, russia sees china the way that u. S. See it, you know . Does the mainstream view from russia do they believe a peaceful rise in china . Thank you. Well, in terms of president xi jinpings plans, hes been very clear that he believes in reform. He has a new book out something its white like this, and it has a little picture in the middle. And the book, i actually read it the book is about improving governance, what he calls governance in china which is a world bank term. He wants to improve the efficiency of china the growth rate he wants the shanghai free trade zone to do some experiments about foreign currency being easier to send back to companies. So president xi is presenting himself as a reformer an experimenter, someone willing to, you know in some sense have the 100year marathon go faster. Why wait til 2049 . So i see him as a guy i first met, actually, i have a picture of him. Our slides didnt arrive in time, but i had a very nice picture of him in 1980. Hes 27 years old. He came to the pentagon. Hes been to the pentagon twice. Ive been there both times. The first time he didnt talk 1980. Hes a note taker for a delegation of chinese generalsment and he put generals. And he put that photo if his book. Hes proud of the old days 1980, when he came to visit the pentagon. Hes also quite friendly with the hawks. They seem to appreciate him. So its a contra ductly two themes contradictory two themes, you might say. Im a reformer, i want china to go faster in the 100year marathon, but i like the narrative that the hawks have been giving. That chinas destiny is really something we should Start Talking about. So hes changing what used to be the sacred strategy. Everybody in washington knew this. [speaking chinese] it means roughly bide your time to put it as american, its the movie i mentioned the fight club. The first rule of the fight club is dont talk about the fight club. [speaking chinese] means dont talk about our long range strategy. So president xi seems to be saying no, its o. K. To Start Talking finish its okay to Start Talking about 2049 and what the worlds going to look like in 2049. And by the way, nadia its very good news. 2049, that world is going to be really quite wonderful according to president xi. And by the way, taiwan is really not part of the story. Its going to be brought over toward china and not pose a problem anymore. What about the russia part of the question . Does russia view it exactly the way the americans do . No. No the russians are having a very intensive debate in moscow. I went back to see a guy i talk a lot about in the book, a guy who first taught me a lot about china. He was in my secretariat Political Affairs department. He was sort of on loan from the russian government. We both had plenty of time on our hands so we talked about china. I went back to see him a couple years ago with susan in moscow. He came to this seminar. We were quite surprised he showed up, official seminar. And he said i told you so. It emerged in moscow that there are prochina and antichina points of view. The prochina point of view is, hey, these guys are with us. The antichina view is hey, theres two million undocumented chinese in siberia. Theyre taking over all kinds of stuff in china. They drive too hard a bargain. This deal for 400 billion worth of natural gas its not finalized yet but the price is really quite low the chinese are offering. So in the case of the ukraine crimea chinese have not been fulsome in their endorsement of what putin is doing. So i see a kind of growing friction, a kind of growing debate in moscow over what to do about china. And im hoping that therell be a russian language edition of the 100year marathon. I have good news for you, the japanese bought the translation right thats good news for you. Its good news for me. [laughter] and for those who read japanese. The chinese have told me, some chinese have told me your last book was translated in china, published in china, which is true with only one redaction. Wed like to publish this book in china. I have not yet heard from the russians. Im hoping theyll like to publish it. And last thing, i just checked amazon. Do you know this is number four on the amazon bestseller list this morning . Itll go up when these people buy it. [laughter] last [inaudible conversations] hoping buys more than one copy. The gentleman here, and then theres one question right at the very back. Thats it, im sorry. Michael [inaudible] oh, my god. Michael yahuda, one of our greatest china experts. Hes going to pretend to ask me a question. [laughter] my question is this before the 100 years of humiliation chinas main contact with the outside world was what we would now call it neighbors. Where do these neighbors fit in to this 100year marathon . Because after all, quite a number of these neighbors some of them very important are allies of the United States. Uhhuh. Will these just shed their alliance with the United States when they see the magnificence of xi jinping [laughter] or where exactly do they fit in . I would add one further point and that is in my conversations with learned people in china and your many books about chinese Foreign Policy what comes across is their ignorance of other countries. Uhhuh. They in many instances, perhaps they know a great deal about the United States, but my impression is many of those who have a great deal of knowledge about the United States somehow have a lack of some basic understanding as to how the United States works. Uhhuh. Neither their history nor their current political system right. Will seems to allow for an understanding of how democracies with all their contradictions, with all their problems have lasted and how they work. Could you please comment. Well, i i have good news for you, professor Michael Yahuda the Hudson Institute center for chinese strategy is going to have a series of events, essentially press conferences in which were going to release translations of chinese strategic writings that i think are important and are not easily available. And one of the first topics is going to be this particular kind of chinese strategic writing about how well to they understand their neighbors and the United States as well. Was i think because i think youre essentially correct that theres a lot of misperceptions. If we had to score the chinese now im saying, dont forget, im saying theyre outsmarting us, outfoxing us, you know in some areas. So i would seem to be saying the chinese are really really smart, and they know everything about their neighbors. And youre adding kind of a cautionary note. Well no, in your conversations and ive had sum discussions they dont seem to really get it very well about their neighbors. And i think theres an area here for a kind of i hate to be a polly ana but theres an pollyanna, but theres an area for further discussion with the chinese about their misperceptions about a lot of things. On america, i have a chapter here called america the great satan. They say Abraham Lincoln began the containment policy. Yeah. He was concern. [inaudible] [laughter] theyve got similar views on india. That the indians are this and this and this. Really kind of wild stuff about india. About japan, theyve got a series of narratives about japan that really the samurai are still there, and they love blood, and they cant wait for the next war. So when they visit the shrine, this is like part of the program. They say that japanese have a peaceful scientific missile that they launch into space. This is really an ucbm. Ecbm. The chinese hawks saw icbm. And theres 70 tons of missing blue tone yum. Well, its obvious what this is, in the underground Nuclear Weapons that have already been made. So when you get these kind of wild misperceptions, on on the one hand we can despair and say, oh, what a pity. On the other hand, this is an opportunity if we made a list of these misperceptions and then tried to i hate to say the word confront, thats a little bit too tough weve strayed from hey stop saying this. Abraham lincoln didnt do this. Woodrow wilson didnt do this. Your whole narrative youre teaching in colleges and to your Party Members is false. If our leaders begin to do that theyd have to respond. And either we get better educated oh, my god, this is what they really think . Or theyd have to back off. And the chinese themselves do this with the japanese. Theyre all over the japanese on their textbooks about world war ii. Theres some merit to it. But we are simply passive so far. And i think its because of a lack of translations into establish, which is what the Hudson Institute center on chinese strategy wants to do, is to sort of bring out some of these materials that are open in china but are not well known here and are really quite shocking. Great. Final question right in the back. I know there are many many, many unanswered questions, but therell be time to discuss them with michael when you get the book signed. The gentleman, yeah, who has the mic. Sorry. Thank you very much. I have a question, followup question on taiwan. You mentioned that for 100year term taiwan will be on chinese side. So assuming that you believe that taiwan will be unified with china finally within 100 years what will be the rise strategic for the United States to deal with taiwan issue in the context of power shifting in west asiapacific area . Thank you. Good question. One of the chinese misperceptions, really quite fascinating, they finish the hawks when they write about america and taiwan, they have they always write the same way. Taiwan is really an unsinkable Aircraft Carrier the americans are using to contain china. And they have maps, a big map. And theyll show how taiwan is blocking all these ports of china, and the americans have their secret strategy which is to block china from coming out into the ocean by building up taiwan. And theres, i mean theres other points to the narrative. Batesically, the americans and taiwan batesically the basically, the americans and taiwan are colluding against china. And this is a very sophisticateed collusion. Now, theres the truth [laughter] at least according to me. We dont recognize taiwan as a government. We withdrew our military advisers. We had a Taiwan Defense command that did plot with taiwan in the 50s and 60s, and they had a war plan. We took it out. Its all gone. We made taiwan navy sailors take off their uniforms when they come to pick up boots in america when they get into our territorial waters. When taiwans a jet Fighter Pilots come to texas to train they have to take off their insignia for their names that indicate anything to do with taiwans air force. Why . Because taiwan doesnt exist as an official entity. An unofficial way of talking about taiwan we call it local authorities. Local authorities of what . Taiwan. [laughter] so you cant have it both ways. Either the chinese are right that were in this enormous conspiracy with taiwan and taiwan is part of the american side of the 100year marathon, right . Or taiwan is not, the americans really dont involve themselves much with taiwan at all or theres something in the middle going on that beijing and washington are competing for taiwans love. And who is going to win that . Were going to get taiwan to have mcdonalds hamburgers and everybody learns english when were telling them that youre not a country . Or is china going to do better because they say, hey, were all chinese . Yellow emperor, you know . They read taiwans textbooks very carefully. Taiwans textbooks talk about chinese history. Les a little bit theres a little bit about taiwan dna, mountain people, but whos going to win the 100year marathon for the love of taiwan . Washington or beijing . I think its an open question. Thank you very much, dr. Michael pillsbury senior fellow and director for chinese strategy here at Hudson Institute. [applause] its been a really lively discussion can. The book discussion, the book the 10046 year marathon, is available. I will keep dr. Pillsbury sitting here so that you can bring it for signatures. Thank you all very much. [inaudible conversations] youre watching 48 hours of nonfiction authors and books on cspan2s booktv television for serious readers. Coming up next on booktv from last weekends savannah book its value, lynn scherr recounts the life of astronaut sally ride. This is about an hour. [applause] [laughter] thank you, ann, very much. And thanks to all of you. I want to say welcome to this beautiful place and also thank you for having me here. I love being among book lovers, and for those of you who came to hear vicki talk about her wonderful book about elephants, um, im sorry about that. But if it helps, i did write a book about giraffes. [laughter] truly magnificent creatures. I will take a little detour here. I will tell you that i considered giraffes not only the most gorgeous creatures on the planet and also the most politically correct. They never attack unless theyre attacked. Very peaceable. Theyre vegetarians and no giraffe discriminates against another giraffe on basis of its skin patterns. They also have the longest eyelashes in captivity. Theyre great creatures, and more than happy to talk about them tall blondes and that book another time. For now i wish you a happy valentines day and i suggest that you, sometimes today hug someone or something you love. As that only happens to be a book thats okay, too. We love books. I also want to point out tomorrow february 15th is the birthday of one of my heroes, susan b. Anthony, who of course led the Great Campaign in the 19th century to get us women not only the right to vote but every other single right as well. [applause] yes, thank you very much. So happy birthday to susan b. Anthony in advance. Susan b. Anthony shares that birthday with the as stronger in astronomer galileo who
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