Third or fourth book . Something like that. You wrote a book i was interested in because were going to be talking about conservatives and liberals. One of them is you were the coauthor of conservatives in power, the reagan years, 1981 to 1989. Interesting. Were going to talk a bit about conservative politics and liberal politics for that matter. Lets start with this, if we can. Okay. You correct me. You have a thesis for this book, and ill let you describe it obviously, but essentially what you argue in this book is that the two Energy Crises of the 70s, 73, 79, essentially were part of and major factor in the transformation of american politics and, among other things, made americans realize that perhaps government could not take care of them the way we had assumed for a long time, and thus paving the way for a conservative revolution. Fair enough . Fair enough. Very good job. Thank you. Thank you for having me here. That is what i discovered in writing this, and its really it became a really interesting story the way that all the anger, frustration, as americans waited hours upon hours on gas lines during the two oil shocks, really led to a transformation in how americans perceived their relationship to government. That government in fact could no longer take care of them, provide for them, guarantee them access to the kind of lifestyle theyd been living, and that really comes to a head in the summer of 1979, when people are just furious, and blame washington, hold washington accountable. You will, of course, explore that in more depth in our conversation, but some of the people who will listen to this will have no recollection what either of those crises were like. In both cases these were tremendously traumatic episodes in our contemporary history. If you think about it, regardless of when you were born i think this still holds true if you ask americans what possession best symbolizes your sense of being american was the cars. A long roman with the car and right up until the Energy Crisis, american cars were getting bigger and bigger, living rooms on wheels. And people felt a deep attachment. Now you take the car, the symbol of progress of american success, and now its become the opposite. Its a sign and symbol of weakness, decline, decay, as people wait for hours upon hours in these milelong gas lines. That is it. The gas lines were the most dramatic symbol of how americans had to rethink how we lived. And they were i remember them quite well. I remember the fear that we had of driving with almost no gas left in our cars, and hoping that we could get to a gas station that might have a short enough line that there would be gas left it was really extraordinary. It was not the america that we thought we lived in. Right, as far as the title panic at the pump, a phrase that reported and journalists used at the time and i thought it was apt to call the book panic at the pump because that captured americas mindset and its interesting to think about why. The actual shortage of fuel was not overwhelming, did not in and of itself require a massive change in lifestyle, and yet americans reacted as if this was the end of the world as they had nope known it. So this triggered a kind of paniclike behavior where as you describe this fear of running out so people were driving around with month a months supply of gasoline in their tanks rather than in the ground, which exacerbated the crisis. The Energy Crisis of the mid70s the continuing Energy Problems that led to the crisis at the end of the 70s, had major impact on the carter presidency as you talk about in great detail, and because were sitting here in the carter president ial library we will get to a little bet more in depth cooperation specifically about carter and what he experienced in trying to deal with the problems that he faced with energy. But lets back up. You bookend your book with george h. W. Bush. You open the book with george and barbara bush moving to odessa, texas to do what . They go in search of oil and the american dream. So, george h. W. Bush graduates from yale in 1948. He decided he doesnt want to follow in his familys footsteps and go to wall street. Hes going to go search for his own fortune, albeit with some family connections, out in texas, and i sort of captures what i was taking bat moment ago. This sort of sense of endless abundance. So this is a moment of great discoveries in west texas and he arrives right at the right moment and he is going seek his fortune and help build the Republican Party, which we can talk about, too, in texas. And so we start there, before the 1973 arab embargo. Want to capture what American Culture was like, what expectations of the average american were like, that sort of best represented by this freeflowing black gold that came out of the ground, and i end the book in 1991, after weve been through the Energy Crisis, which americans saw as a crisis of shortage, a crisis of scarcity, a crisis of dependence on foreign oil, and so the book ends with george h. W. Bush, the oil man, as president in the white house, with the gulfar, when americans go to secure the access of oil from the middle east. Fascinating story arc, actually. One thing you point out is in terms of searching for the american dream, when he and barbara arrive, they arrived in texas in 48 and theyre the perfect time because theres been a huge a discovery of a huge oil reserve, this brayberry trend. So this was a promise that wed made the right decision. We were going to make it big in the oil business. Yeah. What is interesting and what sort of then sets the story in motion is when that appears to no longer be the case. So america had been the great energy producer, oil producer, throughout the 20th century, what literally helped fuel the growth of our economy, sort of cardriven economy, but by the late 1960s, there was the sense that we had reached our geological peak of protection, of domestic production. Lets back up. Bush may have gone to the oil fields hoping that he would just be an oil man, but when youre teaming with oil in this country you cant escape politics, and he learned that relatively quickly. In 1954, you remind us, the Supreme Court made an important ruling that would help trigger george bushs interest in getting involved politically in the production and distribution of oil. So, the Supreme Court ruled that the government had the right, the ability to control natural gas prices, and natural gas and oil often come out of the same well in the ground and seen as interchangeable fuels in some instances, and so the fear and concern of oilmen like bush is now the government is going to interfere across the board and control the price of oil, too. And what is interesting about the Supreme Court decision is it comes out of this sort of new deal mentality that americans have the right as fdr said in 1932 when he was first running for president , that americans have a right to cheap and affordable energy, and americans have that mentality, and it hadnt really been a problem until we start to have demands that exceed our supply. One of the important points you make in the book is that we get associate the new deal with roosevelt, the democrats, but in fact the new deal infused a lot of republican thinking of the time as well. Federal government having a major role in helping people live better lives. I think that we can see the period from the 40s, 50s, as a consensus of that position. Then there were interesting people, like george h. W. Bush, who in response to the Supreme Court decision, and then also later to the Environmental Movement, thought that the problem is too much government interference, and so bush quite deliberately, and its an exaggeration to say singlehand deadly but very instrumental in trying to build up the run party in texas. With the argument that if the Republican Party that supports free enterprise, and so to actually increase our domestic supply to make us secure, that we have to sort of vote republican and remove all of these controls. And this sets up a tension, a dynamic, that will be at play throughout your entire book, controls, deregulation, where do we get our oil from, domestic or foreign . And this plays out through the entire history of this period youre writing about. Yes. One thing we tend to lose sight of is that the new deal in some ways, that kind of mentality, lived longer than we remember. This sort of expectation that government will take care of us, and if all of a sudden theres a shortage and gasoline prices spike through the roof, well, then, its governments job to do something bit and that mentality is in play including when president carter has to deal with this problem in the summer of 199. Summer of 1979. Fascinating to think about in light of contemporary politics right now. The notion that government will take care of us is probably less manifest right now than maybe ever before, i think, but youre the historian. I think thats true, and so one of the reasons that i set tout write this book is i wanted to see when that changed. When and how that changed. And it looked to me like a crucial moment came with the Energy Crisis. Of course, the stories that sort of the disillusionment with washington started before so we have vietnam, watergate, and i see those events as playing out differently than the Energy Crisis. Go ahead. So, the argument essentially is that if vietnam and watergate taught americans they could not trust their political leaders, then the Energy Crisis demonstrated that washington didnt work. Lets walk through these crises, and well look at the first crisis at bit more quickly because we want to focus on our host here tonight, jimmy carter. By the way, we will, at a certain point, turn the microphones over to you so if youre going to think about questions you may want to ask when we get to that point of our conversation. 1967, the arabisraeli war breaks out, and that is the first time that the arab states decide that perhaps they should Work Together to use oil as a pressure against americas involvement with israel. But they cant make it work at that point. Why not . Well, this is what the difference between 19 of 2 1967 when its ineye effective and 1973 when they, is the changing situation in Global Oil Market and the United States played a key role in that. So, its just at this moment that demand for energy is endless in the United States, so we make up about, at that time, five percent of the world residents population but we use Something Like 80 in the book . Is that right . No, i think we use a third of the world Residents Energy worlds energy. So, theres this greg demand, that people growing demand that people move far center farther from work and drive more and more and expect all climates to be fully air conditioned and at the exact right temperature, but theres declining domestic supply, and that transformation happens pretty quickly from the late of 60s into 73 and because of that situation the air back producers realize they have more control of the market. The fact that it was nope that the are ran states were thinking about using oil as a weapon woke some people up in the Political Leadership here that we could not risk dependence on middle eastern oil. By 1970 you say opec was producing twice as much oil as the United States so we were in a dangerous situation. And yet one that leaders actually are not fully aware of because the other thing that happened in this period, as sort of domestic decline supply declines, is for the first time we also become a major importer of oil. So in 1970, we dont import that much. By 1973 we import about a third of our oil needs. So, actually george w. Georg. Bush i thought and maybe im wrong but i want to clarify. If it isnt right i want them to be aware of it and we can deal with it in the radio broadcast. Thought h. W. Said war brought ohm the fact the world could not have depend sense on the middle eastern oil. By now he is in washington as a congressman, and theyre up soing the warning. Theyre sounding the warning but no one is listening. Not the political leaders. Its the oil interests. Yeah. He is there their lone republican voice from the south. But no one is really listening, and so when the arab embargo comes in the fall of 1973, one of nixons advisers describes it as an energy pearl harbor. Sort of comes as that much of a shock. Lets talk about that. Although we could say in 1969 nixon is in office and we have the San Bernardino oil spill, at the time horrendous natural disaster. Yes. And forced nixon to think about becoming a conservationist of all things. True. And we could say that nixon did a lot for the Environmental Movement and signed into law the National Environmental policy act, which is this sweeping piece of legislation, one that is impossible to imagine today. Where it talks about the coexistence between man and nate tour and nixon does this, thinks this will boost his standing for this reelection battle in 72, and these are the pressures that the oil industry is experiencing. So, as theyre having to drill in sort of more remote and harsher locales theyre now per serving themes to be found with all the new regulations and this intensifies the crunch. And theyre the first ones who Start Talking about this crunch. Terrific. Thank you for setting that up. Now we come to 1973. Okay. When you point out that the Energy Crunch really hit hard. The northeast, midwest, had tremendous shortages of heating oil. The arabisraeli war, this yom kippur wore cams looming war comes along and this time the arab states say, yeah, were going to use oil as a weapon, and they announce an embargo. Right . Yes. So, in retaliation for the United States support of israel, the arab producers announce an embargo, and they also do another thing which is even more its a cutback in production which is going to some rink the supply and allow them also to do a massive price increase. So its the combination of a shortage and a surge in prices that americans are completely stunned by. What is the Nixon White House to do to respond to this . How do they decide first to act on this . Well, nixon was a good politician. He understood issues that resonated with voters. He understood that this would be what his pollsters said was a gut level issue, and he is trying to figure out what to do, and is faced with a democratic congress, and the congress says, well, you know, lets ration. Which is impossible for us to imagine today. In some ways the 1970s are closer to the 1409s than they are to today, and rationing actually falls only eight votes short in the senate and also say, lets put lets roll back the prices at the pump. And these things actually happened, which is impossible for us to imagine today. But the sort of anger and even violence, a sense of chaos on the gas lines is quite intense. So under pressure, nixon appoints the first ever energy czar, and as a reminder theres no such thing as a department of energy because energy is not perceived to be something we have to do anything about. We just have a lot of it so we dont have to do anything about it. So, the is no department of energy, and nixon appoints under pressure the first ever energy czar, william simon, who is a sort of freemarket, wall street guy, but finds himself under pressure to make decisions like, which Public Events should go on as planned . Should we have the daytona 500 or maybe this year it should be the daytona 450. That was an actual conversation. An actual conversation. And decision. That he had to decide. So, you have so this really sort of elaborate intervention to try to deal with sense of crisis coming from the gas lines. At the same time, what was happening with inflation . Oh, thought you were going to Say Something different. So, this is the beginnings of what will become this sort of decadelong problem with inflation, which the Energy Crisis magnified. And so this also is sort of generating support for something that is impossible to think. Now. Government should just set the prices. If theyre too high do something about it. And its really hard for us to imagine that being in place today. But as i say they not only put into place price controls but actually insist on rolling back the prices retailers are charging. Inflation you point out that inflation was so bad that the price of meat rose, like, 70 , and so we were really feeling this incredible pressure. Again, an america was totally foreign to us. Yes. Later in the decade youll have this phenomenon of rising prices at the same time you have a stagnant economy so this sort of double whammy. I think really important, on october 16th, opec expect imposed the biggest price hike we had ever seen from 3 to 5 per barrel. What is oil a barrel these days . Do you know . Well, its about between 30, 40 in that range. These are both 1973 prices then they decided to cut back production, and this is what you say about all of that. They decide to cut back production as long as israel remains in the occupied territory. Right. You say in a single blow these arab acts against the United States and its allies signaled a substantial shift in International Geopolitical power to the third world. The psychological shock was devastating. True. Again, nobody saw this coming. Not hengery kissinger, not any of the other members of the Foreign Policy team. This idea they would unleash the oil weapon, even though the Saudi Oil Ministers said were going to do this. And nixon said, yeah, dont think you will. November 7, 1973, president nixon goes on National Television to add