You know these people. David axelrod author of believer. [applause] kristin mcceery member of the Chicago Tribune editorial board. [applause] Clarence Paige is columnist and member of the tribune editorial board, author of culture warrior. My former, first knight city weekend editor at the Chicago Tribune . He is so youthful you wouldnt believe it. You too david. You are surrounded people still gainfully employed by the Chicago Tribune. Unlike thefy who left 30 years ago. You have to be sitting there thinking what might have been. Could have been asking myself these questions. He wouldnt take my advice. David, you have a great future in newspapers. Well, i love my time at the tribune. I was really glad you cleared out to run the paul simon campaign. I got to cover the paul simon campaign. Baptism much political coverage in the state. I do want to take a moment, before we talk all the politics of you just come from delaware. As we sit here the funeral mass being set for bowe biden. I beau biden. He was a splendid guy in splendid family. I wrote about the book, my First Encounter with beau and biden family and struck by their relationships. Everyone in the country is grieving with them this morning. We would be remiss if we didnt note his passing. Do you have a sense of how he is coping . It is difficult, you know. I mean, everyone knows the history. He almost lost beau once. He lost his wife and child in that same accident. And beau was the son everyone hopes they would have. I mean. He was a great father son veteran. He did public service. And he did it with integrity. And he just a lovely, lovely person so, i just cant imagine, you know, how one copes with that, but you know we are faced with these things in life and you just have to go on. Joe biden when the president made the decision with your advice on choosing joe biden, it was seen unusual choice at the time. Can you give us a sense of how that relationship is built over the years six, seven years . I will say that, we considered 30 people for the vicepresident ial nomination. There was a process. But, and it began in may of 2008 when it became pretty clear that senator obama was going to be the nominee. The first thing he said was, you know we should go through this process but im really focused on joe biden. The reason he was focused on biden, there was number of them one, biden had the years in washington he didnt have. He had vast, vast history in foreign policy. He was from delaware, but he was native of pennsylvania and reached into a state we thought was going to be important thing was. He has been through national campaigns, national politics, he understands this maelstrom. The interesting thing about it is that, im already violating my rule, clarence. Thats all right. The interesting thing about it is, that when sarah palin was chosen, we were on the plane leaving denver in 2008 and it came across on our blackberries, i ran up to the front of the plane where the bidens and obamas were riding. I grabbed obama he picked sarah palin. Obama went through all the things in his head. Why did he do that. Interesting. You know what, he said . Being, being in this National Media frenzy is hard. I was terrible, i think im reasonably smart. It took me six months to get used to it. She could be the greatest politician since Ronald Reagan coming out out out of alaska handle all of this. I give it four weeks and well know whether this was a good idea or not. Four weeks to the day she did that interview with katie couric so by the way biden came bounding up in middle of this conversation. He said, whats up . He picked sarah palin for Vice President. He said what a lot of america was saying, who is sarah palin . The relationship between them, it wasnt close when he chose biden. He was impressed with the way biden handled himself in the campaign and debates and so on. When we went to see biden i wrote about this, the first thing biden said, was, you know, i ran for president because i thought i would be the best president. I still think that. I didnt win i got no delegates and he win be the nominee. I want barack to succeed. A year into the administration, biden called me into his office and closeddoor. Remember that conversation . Yeah. I was wrong. The right guy run. Im really proud to be working for him. They are very, very close. Personal friends. I think their relationship is probably as warm as any between a president and Vice President ive seen in my lifetime. 2016 well get everybody in. Abc Washington Post poll, Hillary Clinton 49 unfavorable. 55 unfavorable with independents. 52 of the public say she cant be trusted. David, if this was eight years ago you would be licking your chops. Why isnt there another obama candidate ready to take her on . These are different times. First of all understand, you have to look closely at these polls. Were at very polarized country. She is now being viewed as the punitive nominee. She is being seen through a very partisan lens. So her numbers among democrats have not eroded at all. So when people say, gee what does this mean, i think it means, not much relative to her being the nominee of the Democratic Party. It means that were going to have, you know, well have, what has become typically difficult general election but democrats are favored in that regard. My view of hillary, when we, when she was not the right candidate in 2008, because i think people look for the remedies to what they had. They never look for the rep flickca. Barack obama was starkest antidote to george w. Bush. He was reflective and deliberative where people saw bush as impulsive. He was not seen then as a partisan figure. There were a well range of reasons for it. Hillary, he was not a washington person. I think now people are looking for someone maybe a little less deliberative, a little less ponderous. I say that, i have unending respect for him. And theyre going to be looking for someone who can manage or maybe navigate washington rather than someone who promises to change washington. Clarence, will Hillary Clinton run as the remedy to barack obama . In so many words but im not of course that directly remember eight years ago now i was predicting the nominees would be Hillary Clinton and rudy giuliani. So people are not running to me for predictions. [laughter]. Who would you like to kiss off today . Take somebody out. You remember those eight years ago. That was conventional wisdom though. Predict George Pataki. Today im still hanging in with Hillary Clinton and jeb bush. So both of them are going to worry now im sure. But it is remarkable, that, bushs approval by the way sunk again this week. Just before, he is about to announce his candidacy. But that seems to be the way this campaign is building up though. Contest between who you dislike the most. Or the least. But anyway, what was your question again . Kristen, you caught up with rand paul a couple weeks ago. He is in chicago. Does he look like he got a lot of attention over at nsa patriot act filibuster does he look like somebody that would could be a surprise republican. I dont think so. He is polling 7 . I like him he is very direct. One the few people will talk about the need, nothing is sacrosanct. We need to cut the defense budget. He has been reprimanded by Reince Priebus talking about the Republican Partys brand sucks. Those are his words. I would agree with that to an extent. No i see jeb bush and scott walker. I think scott walker his appeal is hanging in there. He is tested and i see, there are groaning in the audience. Was like wretching. [laughter] and applause. Will be a line dance. Yeah. So no, i dont see rand paul being anything other than kind of somebody who would stir the pot to be interesting person during the debates. Can i make a point as we sit here in june the year before the election. I want to mention these names. I want you guys to answer what they have in common. Donald trump herman cain, newt gingrich, Rick Santorum rick perry and mitt romney. Is that new rork band youre putting together . If so, i dont like my chances but no, these are all people who led a Public Opinion poll in the year before the election. Right. I guess santorum was in the following year. Newt gingrich was completely written off at this point in 2011. He became, a competitive candidate. Partly because of this system we have now if you get somebody to write a huge check you can hang in there. But, i think we overvalue polling at this juncture, and my view of rand paul is that i think that in a field of, you know thousands of republican candidates or at least dozens that he is going to be, i think he is, as likely as inanyone to do well in New Hampshire in iowa because he has distinctive brand in a crowded field. The question is, as time goes on, when the field winnows down, does that represent the majority of the republican electorate . I dont think it does. I think likely to do well at beginning and get crushed in the end. The other guy who you left off your list getting favorable note marco rubio doing very well as he moves around. Having discounted the polls i say he doing well in the polls. My view under my replica remedy theory another young kind of, exotic sounding namewise senator is not likely to be elected president of the United States. Could be nominated i guess. But im sort of with you clarence. So, people will run from you because you made the wrong predictions in 2008 but im sure all the republicans will be enthusiastic when i embrace their candidacies. Jumping for joy im sure. Is this beginning to be a money marathon though . That is why Hillary Clinton and jeb bush are sew focused on raising money, they have to go farther down the take to say in the race remember why mitt romney won the nomination in 2012. He won it largely because he had a super pac that mode down all the republican opponents cereally along the way. Jeb bush by all accounts will have exponentially more money in his super pac which he has been raising in the beginning than did romney. It is a reflection on how screwed up our finance system is for campaigns that jeb bush, who is clearly been running for president since last year will formally announce june 15th. Why . Because it allowed him to raise money for his super pac once he become as candidate he cant coordinate with the super pac but in the interim he was able to coordinate, raise money into the super pac he will have a lot of it. I think that will make a difference for him down the line. Des Moines Register poll, jeb bush 45 unfavorable. Who wants to argue for the inevitability of jeb bush. Im hanging in there. [laughter]. On record. I didnt hear any hissing for jeb bush. Try that scott walker. Jeb bush. Okay. Lower hiss level. There you go. I wonder Rick Santorum won iowa caulks in 2012 and Mike Huckabee won them in 2008. Im not sure Iowa Caucuses are determinative. Martin omalley . Crickets. Who is that . What about Bernie Sanders here . [applause] now i think we know where we are with the audience. I will keep my mouth mostly shut. Were coming to a Literary Festival you see. Bernie is kind of a literary figure. There you go. Clarence, once a font of midwestern sensibility before you left for d. C. , now youre font of d. C. Sensibility. D. C. Sensibility sounds like an oxymoron. You got that right. What is chance of john kasich coming out of ohio as spring state and surprising that field . Ohio is my native state. I know john kasich since we were at at grateful dead concert years ago. I can tell you he has great potential. Here is the thing about reason why i say that because i think, as you alluded earlier once you get past the early primaries, it is a question of who can go the distance. You get into, well, the electorate becomes more moderate in the primaries the larger states step in. This is where jeb bush has the best chance. I think john kasich or a walker. These folks are more middle of the road and less flamboyant have a better shot at it. Im just wondering, kasich wasnt going to do it until he saw jeb bush doing so poorly. Now he is more encouraged to raise his profile. Whether he will actually declare though remains to be seen but great thing about it, here is a republican governor who tried what walker did insofar undercutting the unions and got his changes rolled back by referendum. Brushed it off the people have spoken. He is now allowed the expansion of medicare excuse me, Medicaid Expansion in his state, one of the few republican governors to do that which just angered the right. But it is delighted his own voters in his own state and his approvals have gone up now from you know numbers better than me, david, somewhere around he was below 30 and now he is above 50. Got reelected handily. Reelected handily. This is important state. No republican won the white house Clarence Page with that. Thank you. I grew up in John Boehners district. So i know the place. No republican gone to the white house without winning without carrying ohio. And i think there is something about that state that does make it important bellwether. Having said all that, good luck to kasich and the other buckeyes even though im an Ohio University bobcat. Go ahead. I should have stayed at the paper. Should. We got a spot for you. Youre matching uniforms. So it is a Hillary Clinton wins kristen does she have coattails in illinois . Weve got number one target u. S. Senate rate, mark kirks seat. That will be coming up. Does hillary have impact in illinois favorable to Tammy Duckworth or whoever comes out of a primary to challenge him. I think she does. One of the best cases that a writer, i think it was somebody from National Review online might have been jonah goldberg, listing reasons why she is so formidable, number one that first woman issue. I think more she comes and helps candidates like Tammy Duckworth i think definitely at the top. Ticket will make a difference in the races here. I just want to go backward for a second. I agree she will run well in illinois. On the nominating know in my book wrote about the gauntlet for running for president of the United States. It is really unimaginable the pressures. They dont start off that way. Hard from the beginning. But every time you clear a bar the bar pets raised and gets harder and harder as it should because youre auditioning for the most difficult job on the planet. And, i think one of the reasons why these polls are very hard to interpret in the long run because they cant they dont reflect how someone will perform under pressure. They dont reflect how someone will handle the pressure when the bar gets raises. This is my question about all of them in some ways, but of scott walker, who has played in a, in a rough venue but a small venue. Tends to be very tactical. And, whether he can rise and clear that bar, i think he may. But i think it is an open question. The same is true with rubio and all of the others. In that sense, being a bush and a clinton as much as we disdain this notion of dynasties having had the experience of being around all of that, and understanding those pressures, is advantageous. I got bad news for you. Whats that . We lost jon cusack, the president is. Oh, i see. The left is kind of down on your guy lately. Jon cusack was quoted saying he was worst than george w. Bush. When you talk about drones, nsa, Civil Liberties attacks on journalism and whistleblowers he is as bad or worse than bush. Glad to see democrats are returning to their natural state of chaos and internal arguments. Why is the president seem to be losing the left . Well, again i would point to i would look at polling on him and his numbers, are holding know fairly well. Not fairly well. Very well. He has strong support look. I have enormous regard for jon cusack as an actor. [laughing] but when youre president of the United States you have to, you have, just enormous responsibilities and you have to make hard decisions. In my book, just go, i keep referring back to it, shamelessly promote it but i wrote about the night before the inauguration when rahm emanuel was the chief of staff coming in. He called me and called me on a hardline. He said there has been a bonafide threat on the inauguration and he explained to me what the concern was a terrorist threat. He asked me to write a 60second speech for the president that he could give at, if he had to disperse the inaugural ceremonies. Give it to him in the speakers office. He said, dont tell you cant tell anyone, not even your family. I mean my wife and son went off in the morning. I was going to do television. They went off to, to go to Church Services with the obamas and the bushes and i was so want to tell them not to go because i thought if something happened how would i live with that for the rest of my life. I was sworn not to say anything. Happily it turned out not to have come to pass that there was an attack on the inauguration but, it was a real reminder that was kind of welcome to the nba moment about what the presidency really is. You know, you have to balance all of these interests. I sat in a room with barack obama and civil libertarians for an hour of off the record discussion in which tea you canned about that he talked about that and talked about balances different factors that you dont have to balance if youre jon cusack. [laughter] [applause] ask me followup question. Certainly. Criticisms of barack obama from the left since he became president. Honestly before he became president , he was not unfirstal choice on t