Only when your dad, which means exactly what she asked. I try to explain, but didnt do a very good job of it. Sometimes they need to write to think, i wrote down for a paper napkin and this is what i wrote. To love, to be loved, to never forget your own insignificant, to never get used to the unspeakable violence in the vulgar disparity of life around you, to seek joy in the saddest places, to pursue beauty to its player, to never simplify what is complicated or complicate what is simple, to respect strength, never power. Above all, to watch, to try and understand, to never look away and to gather, never to forget. Thank you. [applause] the mac Robert Kaplan is next on booktv. He talks about the South China Sea, a body of water that has huge oil and gas reserves necs favor than half the worlds fleets. This is about an hour. [inaudible conversations] good evening, everyone. My name is bob workprint current chief executive officer for new american security. Its not a publishable committee which for the book launch of robert d. Kaplans newest book, asias cauldron the South China Sea and the end of a stable pacific. Before going on, ask everybody if you have an Electronic Devices if you can please check them and make sure they are silenced, i would vitiated since we dont want them to disturb the goingson for the rest of the evening. As this great crowd suggests, bob kaplan is not todays most recognized and respected american journalist. Hes currently National Correspondent for the atlantic magazine provided for stratford. Its also a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and im very happy to say senior fellow at the center for a new american security. I think bob first kind of hit the National Security policy scene in a big way this publication, the cominay this publication, the coming anarchy in 1994. I was talking to them just before the attack kicked off in yesterday he spoke to the leadership of the department of defense and asked him to update that article. The article has been widely cited and debated and was the first of many articles that highlighted the reemergence of both cultural and historical tensions and geographic intentions. Hes since authored numerous books. A month on months income and bureaucrats, hot Pattison Bluewater grants in my personal favorite, the revenge of geography. Hes also a prolific commentator whose work has been featured in numerous publications including the Washington Post, the New York Times commit the new republic, Foreign Affairs of the wall street journal. Bobs work is always very wellwritten, insightful and provocative. Its extremely wellknown and against the National Security and policy circles. And a consultant for the u. S. Army special Operations Forces coming ice age during court and the u. S. Air force. His brief president s, lectured military war college is the fbi, National Security agency, pentagon staff in the caa. Hes also lectured at universities, business forms, appeared on pbs, npr, cspan on fox. 2006 at 2008, bob was visiting professor at the Naval Academy or he tied a course entitled Global Security challenges and 2009 robert gates pointed him to the defense policy board which is an Advisory Committee to the United States department of defense and a search on the body for two years. His thoughtful writings have garnered him enough a lot of praise. To test the newest recipient of the winship award for excellence in international reporting. 2002 he was supportive United States state department distinguished Public Service award. New york times columnist Thomas Friedman called the monica smiled authors in the postcold era along with harvard professor samuel p. Can any of professor paul kennedy. Her company indeed. Perhaps this explains why in 2011 Foreign Policy magazine named captain monica was most tough global 100 thinkers. So i think we could fill a room like this any night by asking if you want to come tell us what you think game. We are specially privileged to hear him talk and give thoughts on his newest book, asias cauldron the South China Sea and the end of a stable pacific. Ias book is extremely timely. Cauldron the South China Sea and the end of a stable pacific. This book is extremely timely. Developed in the fire risk in pacific. With olivia serves as several billion euros in estimated 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in several centuries were of competing territorial claims in the South China Sea in particular is a simmering pot of potential conflicts. Part travelogue, part shia political tremor, offering up a vivid snapshot of the nations surrounding the South China Sea, conflicts in the region buried in the region at the 21st century and their implications for local peace and security. To help tease out some of bobs thoughts this evening, were especially lucky to have Steve Inskeep whos here with us tonight. He alone with his cohosts, rene took over morning edition in december 2004 media spin on been on the job they were sent. Prior to being a host on the morning edition come to see this and and host of weekend all things considered. Since joining 2004, hes hosted the program from new orleans, detroit, rasheed, cairo and tehran, establishing himself as a commentator of a wide variety of issues. He investigated the iraqi police in baghdad was the author of the instant city, life and death in karachi, published in 2011 by penguin press. Hes also written many publications for the Washington Post and the wall street journal. Steve circus also garnered praise. And to do thanks to receive robert f. Kennedy Journalism Award for the price of african oil with the serious conflict in nigeria. Ladies and gentlemen, without further ado, please join me in welcoming bob and steve for event tonight. [applause] thank you very much for the invitation. Lets find out what this man is thinking. Someone sent me an email and said Robert Kaplan has hit the percent thing. Do not come talk like sure, happy to do that. Congratulations on the boat yet i found it really compelling. I want to begin because we are talking about a geographic space as hard to keep that in our heads. It is a mental map if you will. When you talk about the cauldron, the South China Sea, we define the edges of the cauldron for us . South china sea, the grid is the 21st century. Just like central and Eastern Europe or the central geopolitical conflict in the 20 century think of the South China Sea is that for the 21st century. It is surrounded by the countries of Southeast Asia, the philippines, vietnam, mr. Locke and the southwest. Taiwan is in the north, which is the cork in the bottle so to speak for the South China Sea. It is about the size of the greater caribbean and in fact, just as the caribbean is called the american mediterranean, i called the asian mediterrane called the soe asian mediterranean in terms of its centrality to a shed. South china sea as the antechamber. The indian ocean for the Global Energy interstate. Of the oil and natural gas in the middle east comes by supertanker across the indian ocean through the straits of malacca, send duke, honda and other stray sinner through the South China Sea in route to the burgeoning middleclass fleshpots at japan, south korea and the emerging middle classes of coastal china. And its not just oil tankers. The South China Sea handles much of the commercial traffic in the world because if the word has an Economic Economic geographical organizing principle, its a shed. If the asiapacific with two of the three Worlds Largest economies, china and japan. China and japan and south korea get all of their goods, energy, cargo from the South China Sea. So the South China Sea is really the hardest thing. Think of asias persian gulf in another way. Where is the persian gulf is only important for oil, for energy. The South China Sea is important for Energy Transfer for the oil and natural gas under the seabed and for all the commercial dry. Traffic that travels through it. You friday said a couple of provocative things i want to followup on. You compared the 20th century. Disputes over borders and nationalism in Central Europe in a 20 century led to the two most catastrophic wars in history civilization. Are you worried that happened to his nations conflicts over control over the South China Sea quakes the South China Sea with the East China Sea for china in japan have several com clicks will not lead to a world war i style cataclysm. World war i was about modernism. It was about tanks, trenches, things like that and went on for four years and killed 17 militants soldiers in lled 17 militants soldiers in civilian. East asia, the South China Sea as the demonic d east asia, the South China Sea as the demonic defense of postmodernism. In a sense of warships, fifth generation fighter jets, cyberwarfare, Ballistic Missiles. Why am i not reassured . Im going to reassure you. The South China Sea as a maritime clima the South China Sea as a maritime climate and were Central Europe was a land climate and a claustrophobic land climate where armies came into contact with to and fro with a lot of civilians killed back in forth into two world wars. The South China Sea conflict will show us they were anxious, nervous, complicated world but not necessarily a military cataclysm. Its air and sea with very few civilians involved. They are fighting not over densely packed territories, the geographical features in many cases. How did you explore these geographical features . How did she go about it . What ive been increasingly as they get older and travel, the first time you get very vivid impressions. The longer you are there, the more you realize youve been partially deceived. They are more long lasting that the locals with no pity for the foreigners who lived there for two years but no. So i went back to the philippines for four long as its in the course of the last decade. I went to vietnam several times for log essays. Taiwans several times. Malaysia several times and i traveled differently in each case. One of the things they do when i travel as im always taking notes. I never stop writing because your most vivid impressions are those that will escape your mind 30 seconds if you dont write them down. See twitter is a good thing after all. So its a matter of going back and back, always taking notes in a wizard of asking yourself, what is the question you could bring a very uncomfortable silence at the dinner table that nobody would want to discuss . The future lies inside the silences. You know, inside the things that people dont want to discuss. Take me inside a country uncomfortable question that occurred to you during your manager says. Take me inside a country uncomfortable question that occurred to you during your manager says. Im going to pick a country thats been in the news for an odd reason the last few weeks for which people know very little about. Malaysia. What we think of malaysia, we think of the airplane. It went down and nobody can locate it. We know depilation airplane didnt handle it well and must be about the event country and all of that. In fact, malaysia is one of the most repressive countries in the world. Its gone from bad break in poverty and violent ethnic strife between Ethnic Chinese, ethnic indians, as mcneely and muslims and over the past there to the century has become a prosperous information economy was great infrastructure. You know, beautiful highways, grape assistance, airports. But rather than by, the sleek and negotiated tension. This negotiated tension the races are malaysia is really a call of like the heard of the word. It really is. Its a funnel of civilization because where else do you find large Ethnic Chinese p populati, a large indian population in the large muslim population. India, china and the muslim world on one country. Youre aware of the greater part of the latke. In late medieval period, the portuguese steadily. Questions about malaysia that are very uncomfortable is malaysian malaysian made all of these strides because it has been that authoritarian with some very nasty edges to it. He basically insures six, 7 growth rate for 20 years. He was very detailed, though the information economy, every feeding. But he instituted a forum of what you call affirmative action. He saw that the malays were not as welleducated as the chinese in the indians and he was in a melee and he said we need to, you knoeed to, you know, promote the local population. Malaysia is very tense because its not 80 muslim or 90 that somewhere you could say its a muslim country. If 60 muslim, which makes it very different and unique in the world. So the tensions they are, the uncomfortable questions have to do with race and yet the same time theres been no violence there in several decades and i think where malaysia will make a transition from a democracy were the same party has been in power for decades to any opposition eventually takes power. And that is in a nutshell the militias story. Malaysia also has less antichinese nationalism and that the abuse of filipinos because they are so enmeshed in there are communal tensions that they dont have the space, the psychological space to focus like the vietnamese do against the chinese in the South China Sea or the filipinos do against the chinese in the South China Sea. Effect to mention these races and ethnicities reminds us they there historical movements of people that arent that familiar to people in the last are people on the street, but that happened that you feel are significant, which raises another thing for me when i think about how you travel. Why is it when you think about Strategic Issues you end up visiting Historic Sites . Has history doesnt begin in a place that day you arrive there. History does not begin in a place that day you arrived there. Youre right in and say the 23rd chapter of history. Not the first. Im sorry, go ahead. I suppose so. The only way to have been a preset give or context for what youre seeing and hearing is to know everything but gone on in that place before you got there so you can put it in is. If you get up to two things. Reading and reading and reading, visiting historical sites and historians and philosophers in the country. Not just going to the policy pete will end the country because theyll just tell you about now. And you have to have a perspective on everything before now in order to do what might happen after now so to speak. To ever find yourself as an outsider feeling insiders dont only understand the situation . They take too much for granted . The insider knows all the details and can trip you up on this little mistake was not a mistake and thats why you have Fact Checkers inexpert readers and all of that. Sometimes the outsider can see things, you know, that the insider is not able to see so much. Lets tax strategy here. Use the phrase chinas caribbean , comparing the South China Sea to the Caribbean Sea and its relationship to the United States. What do you mean by that equates when i spoke to a chinese senior colonel, several of them and i was talking about chinas aggressive stance in the South China Sea, they said to me, we are doing nothing different in the South China Sea that you americans did not do in the greater caribbean in the 19th and early 20th century. Why should we be different . Which at the u. S. In the caribbean and 30 seconds . Upon subtle in the continental tempers of landmass of north america, the United States try to extend his control to the bluewater, adjacent to the landmass coming into greater caribbean, gulf of mexico and caribbean. Its not true that the america scum of the western hemisphere is divided between north and south america. Its actually divided between south of the amazonian jungle because venezuela, colombia, in terms of where people live in those families. Was the United States that dominance over the caribbean, it essentially got control of the hemisphere and that allowed us to effect the balance of power and the other hemisphere now is the story of the 20th century. The Monroe Doctrine was not about taking out the europeans. The europeans had heard it last. It was about keeping the novel at the same time cooperating with britain over the slave trade, combating the slave trade in at the same kind of thing to europe in every other sphere was creepy and was saddled. You write about keeping them specifically under the caribbeans. With the cheney say to me as you americans come from half a world away to our adjacent seas. That makes you hegemonic whereas when we are in our adjacent seas, we are just spreading our benevolence and extending our continental control into the nearest into what they call their Blue National soil, the blue waters of the south and East China Sea. Know what the chinese would want this the kind of dominance that we had in the caribbean and they have instituted what they called the cows come, but nine july and were they claim control of most of the South China Sea. The problem is the vietnamese dont agree with outline at all. The filipinos dont agree with outline at all. Malaysia has some problems with it. Brunei and has settled this issue and taiwan basically agrees with china, a ss because we are the real china essentially. In this puts the United States air force and navy in a difficult position because it is the United States air and sea power it essentially provides the security are mature for the region and the u. S. Has to essentially not allow china to undermine the sovereignty of all these countries, but at the same time, not let the nationalism says that the philippine soviet tom lu at the United States into a military conflict with china. You say the chinese say theres nothing particularly wrong or aggressive but were doing. Its the same thing you americans did you do not american dominance in the caribbean led to a huge american role in the world. Should the United States be concerned about a larger and larger chinese robe . Chinese see, the South China Sea is locking the door to breaking out of the first chain of the pacific into the wider pacific and also allowing them to an dialup to make an end run around taiwanese sovereignty without actually having to conquer taiwan. They knew they would surround taiwan. In other words, surrounded by more and more trade, more nor air connections, but more and more Ballistic Missiles at the same time. Most importantly as i said earlier, the South China Sea is the antichamber to the indian ocean, china is building or helping to finance modern deepwater ports all along as part of their emerging commercial empire. The indian ocean covers the entire arc of this month in the Sahara Desert to the malay archipelago. So that the chinese could gain dominance of the South China Sea, it unlocks the world to them. It unlocks most of the maritime eastern hemisphere to them in the way that the caribbean unlocked the United States. Of your present income youd think a president think a president of the United States than as a basic question china wants, does that bother us . Does that threaten us . To separate the United States . I said the United States always needs an adventitious balance of power in the asiapacific. But he cannot have going into the future decades the kind of dominance that it exercised in the postworld war ii decades because for decades, there was no chinese navy to speak of. Japan was caused by pacifistic. Vietnam and malaysia were tied up in internal wars we know about so well. The philippines is internally focused on muslim guerrillas. Thats all changed. Vietnam and malaysia by building significant navies or much more so than they had in the past. Japan is moving on to this cause i pacifism in china since the mid1990s has been emerging as one of the worlds great errancy powers. So we are going to have more of a complex multipolar military arrangement as opposed to the very simplistic uni polar American Military dominance that weve had in previous decades. There will be a shift. Again, its a matter of a favorable balance of power. You can freeze the chinese have entirely. One of the assets the United States had that it does not know terry sir alec United States are these not friendly to the United States. East asia, not just the South China Sea, but all of these stages a part of the river and make it Hard Military power is boca, where the u. S. Does not have to apologize for it. It does have bad connotations the way it might have been a middle east or the way up my tab at least until recently postnational europeans. The japanese one is saved. They want airships say. The vietnamese, the former enemy of the United States are refurbishing cameron bay naval station in order to lure in more u. S. Warships because the vietnamese dont love us, that they see us as very useful as a counterbalance to chinese power. Benicia man im one back on the map. Their hundreds if not thousands of islands in the South China Sea, some of them barely above water, some of them underwater. All of them were nearly all of them disputed. There is a philippine ship grounded out one of the islands in a tiny handful of troops they are in chinas been making it difficult we were told just as we walked on stage to be supplied as shared. If the supplied a philippine poverty over a worthless piece of rock so it seems. As youre about to explain. What are the kinds of things that could become a flashpoint . Ive explained how the cheney ca. Heres how the philippine sca. Who kick the United States out of the naval station, clark airfield. But when china started to build up their air and sea power, and thats been going on for 20 years almost, the philippines now want the United States back. Maybe not in exactly the formal position that it was in the postcold war decades, but the sort of want to see more u. S. Warships, more troop visits. They would like the u. S. To intervene more to put pressure on the chinese. But as i said, the u. S. Is walking a tightrope with these crises come with these little crises of the kind you point out. Because the bilateral relationship between the u. S. And china is just so massively important, that we cannot get into a kind of come into an incident, into a military incident with china because of Something Like this. At the same time, the philippines is a treaty ally of the United States. That means its a very formal relationship like we have with south korea, like with japan. We have relatively few of those in the world and some of our most important are in the asiapacific. If someone shoots the philippines they are effectively at war with the United States . Let me put it this way. When china pushes around the philippines, the chinese regime can essentially say to its own nationalists at home, see, we can poke a finger into the eye of uncle sam. Because the philippines is a treaty ally. Its sort of a cheap way of poking a finger at the United States by staying we will push on the philippines. Let me ask about another part of the robot a way of analogy. In a moment well get to your questions, so be thinking about those. A colleague of mine was pointing out until very recently it wouldve been hard to imagine russia dismembering a neighbor country, even though russia was seen as aggressive. Russia clearly felt it had a neighbor that countries it was entitled to dominate but dismembering a neighbor country wouldve been seen as nearly impossible and very abruptly its happened. It appears the United States being a distant nation dealing with a complicated relationship with a very important country thats also Nuclear Power really cant do anything about it. Is a possible we could wake up one day and find out that china has seized some chunk of territory that it sees vital to its interests and the United States again because of that important relationship you mentioned cant do anything about it . Its possible but heres what could likely happen. The chinese would probably never send uniformed troops on these disputed islands. What it would like to do is land fishermen, civilians and claim that theyre exercising their fishing rights by claiming sovereignty at the same time. Fishing with missiles perhaps. Because the chinese have an interesting naval strategy. When we think of navies we just think of warships. The chinese use their coast guard and their Fishing Vessels as part of an organic continuum of naval power, all the way from a small fishing boat although it up to a Nuclear Powered submarine. So they tended to push the philippines around with their coast guard, which essentially makes it harder for the u. S. To respond because you are supposed respond in kind. But we dont have coast guard. Its essentially a nonmilitary it also serves as you militate you mitigate the filipinas because the chinese say we dont need a warships to get our way with you. A danger is that the u. S. Is not likely to get into conflict with china over the philippines, but japan is another matter. He we go to east china. Japan is a serious treaty ally. Japan hosts u. S. Warships even come its going to be hosting a u. S. I think Nuclear Powered aircraft carrier. Japan has four times as many major warships on the high seas than the British Royal navy at the moment. Japan is a serious military power. And were japan to get into some sort of shooting incident with china, that would raise the danger of dragging the u. S. Down. Because we are bound by treaty to help defend japan. I want to ask one more question before you go to the audience, and its this. You have compared the South China Sea to the caribbean. Youve given us a historical analysis that when the United States came to dumb it the caribbean it was a Supreme Court for a leading role in the world. If china were to succeed in dominating the South China Sea, would china then go on to dominate the world . No, i dont think so. I think it would come if it could dominate the South China Sea, a number of other things would be happening as well. They would essentially neutralize taiwan. Taiwan is a de facto independent country. Those words, de facto, to change. China would also become a two ocean navy of the western pacific and the indian ocean. That would give china tremendous influence of what i call a navigable southern, stretching from horn of africa to the sea of japan. But they would not allow china to dominate as the eastern hemisphere as the us has traditionally dominated the western hemisphere. You also russia. We go on for an hour about the search each competition between russia or china. Between russia and china. And you also have powers in the middle east like iran, saudi arabia and others. The eastern hemisphere is a much more complex issue that were dealing with compared to the western hemisphere. I appreciate the complexity. Let me turn to your questions now and invite them. I guess ill be calling on people. Is there a microphone . There is a michael buble, to you. Ill go with this gentleman right here. Wait for the mic for but if i could ask you to stand up and say your name so we can get to know each other just a little bit. Im michael, and the question is, the last time you set a big rebounds strategy in the late 40s and early 50s involved a lot of institutional changes for the federal government and the establishment in general. On their institutional changes you think are necessary to facilitate the rebalance asia, and if so, what are they . Heres the difficulty here we want to give it to asia if the middle east allows, but the middle east doesnt often allow. The same might be said about europe. The u. S. Is a global power. It just is. Its such a global power that it can only be compared not to other nationstates throughout history but to other empires throughout history. Its the only useful means of historical comparison that we have. But its not a question of real organizing bureaucracies, so that the recruitment process needs a lot of help, changes, because just at the expense of warships. I think the new gerald r. Ford class of aircraft carriers 12 billion of anything on it, or the zumwalt class destroyer is 12 billion without anything on a. A lot of work to be done there. By think what were going to need going forward, we tend to have a solution that were in this globalized universal world, but that may be true at a top cream of the crop global elite level, but never have we needed more area expertise inside the bureaucracy as we need now. People who were expert in local national cultures. That leads to a great followup to anybody whos read the book the bes best and brigh, theres eleanor to the of the vietnam war about the United States kind of destroying its area o knowledge. A lot of time has passed since then. How well do you think the United States inside the government understands the region youre talking about the . After 9 11, of course, there was a lot of emphasis on building up arab speakers, persian speakers and others. The United States has an advantage in the asiapacific. We fought half of world war ii there, one theater of world war ii. We fought two great wars there, korea and vietnam. We have been essentially a colonial power in the philippines from 1899 right up to the early decades of the 20th century with a strong relationship with the philippines ever since. So theres a tremendous institutional basis for area expertise and friendships with the asiapacific that we dont have quite with other parts of the world. Okay. A few more questions. Right here in the second row. And begin placing a name and where youre from. Go ahead and stand up. Thank you for the opportunity to my name is janine, im a vietnameseamerican. Id like to first make a few verification and then ask a question. If we can just be as brief as possible, but to go ahead. Yes. Ask a question. Its okay. Oon a vietnameseamerican. Eichinger and 75. Before then, the vietnamese in the south font with the u. S. And the whole world to fight against the communists. So the vietnamese men then and now, we value, the value of the u. S. And universal value which is human rights, liberty and justice for all. Thats one. You said that vietnam doesnt like u. S. Thats not too. Vietnamese communist mayb may bt the bbs in the south and the vietnamese the fight against the communist, we like the valley. Secondly, in 1974, china didnt invade vietnam. They invaded the south. They said that would not happen. It did happen. China has repeatedly invaded vietnam many times since 88, in recently in 2009, even now with fishing vessel to so thats a clever addition. My question to you is, your title, the end of the stable pacific. I would like to ask you and the policymakers here, we trying our best to avoid it. And i believe that the u. S. Has a role in it. The u. S. Is the leaders of the world. How do we avoid the end of a stable pacific so that come back to the institutional, how do we okay. Formed a new centrality where china can seek out and signed code of conduct with us . And where would u. S. Come in as leader i think i understand your question. Yes, its true that the chinese did take the parasols, and this is part the dispute between china and vietnam in the South China Sea is probably the strongest of the disputes in the South China Sea. Vietnam is i think one of the 12th or 13th largest countries in the world in population. The whole western coastline of the South China Sea. Its a potential maritime turkey that is a potential middle level power. And it is true that the chinese the vietnamese government wants to use the United States to balance it against china, whereas whenever ive traveled through vietnam ive never met such proamerican from the people, really, thats true. The United States in terms of keeping the pacific stable, what its all about is we have to be very clear. We have to keep up a very strong air naval presence. Its fine to encourage our allies to do more, but when our allies do more, and they themselves have conflicts with other countries in the region, they can lead to instability. So yes, we want the japanese to do more, but if the japanese build up their military and keep building and building, he becomes a problem because, you know, the japanese, for historical reasons, are not well trusted in south korea and elsewhere, and yet the japanese have an existential threat in china, with the growing chinese said he was has to maintain a strong air naval presence to keep the peace, as it were. People say, we can just drastically reduce our ships and planes. If we do that the pacific is not going to be very stable, and the chance of war breaking out or a conflict breaking out in the South China Sea and in the East China Sea goes up immeasurably. Let me go way to the back. Is there anybody toward the back . Are you all that quiet in the back . Remarkable. How about this gentleman over here. The microphone is coming. Thank you. Ken meyer. Theres a possibility, remote at present, maybe not so remote, that they can help would be built across the business of something or other in Southern Thailand are how likely to think that is . But if it happened how would you change the geopolitical situation in the South China Sea with a lot of the shipping to east asia, especially to china being able to bypass singapore and the moloch of straight . Yes, in Southern Thailand but it would be kind of be a more difficult engineering project that the panama canal because of the terrain, the mountains to ring but to be many feasibility studies done. Theres also feasibility studies being done to create like deep water port on both sides of the Malay Peninsula where interconnected by pipeline and welcome in other words, what this is all about is bring the indian ocean in the South China Sea together. The bay of bengal together with the South China Sea, the indian ocean with the pacific. And thats to take advantage of growing merchant traffic, growing Energy Transfers where so much is that depended on the strait of malacca. People say geography is an is an important more. The strait of malacca snow white enough that it was 500 years ago. And that creates a real dilemma for china which is to and for japan and south korea as well. They were all just to depend on this Narrow Strait which is even narrower in terms of whats actually navigable inside that waterway. So they need alternative pathways, and the isthmus of craw could be one. This woman right here. Thank you very much. [inaudible] you just alluded to taiwan. You said it is now a de facto independent country and it could change. Chinese government is very determined to take back taiwan according to beijings thinking. We are seeing now increasing economic integration between taiwan and mainland and there is very real possibility that taiwan could in effect de facto become part of the great china and taiwan increasing loses independence. If that happens what do you think will change as the power and South China Sea . Yes. A number of things could happen. China is, i think there are 270 commercial flights a week between the chinese mainland and taiwan. Theres also 1500 or so Ballistic Missiles focused from china on taiwan. This is to say nothing about the chinese warships in the South China Sea, which essentially a vice taiwan essentially about sky one. But at the same time the longer taiwan can hold up, and this is what highways to me what i report in the book, the longer they hold out the more china itself can change. Because remember, weve been used to a static china with just eight, 9 Economic Growth rates every year for the last 25 or 30 years. This economic boom engine with a predictable authoritarian leadership of collegial faceless, noncharismatic men who retire at 65, athletes to policy thats been very predictable, even if chinas arrival. But now that economic engine is running into the ground a bit, you know, you cant just go on growing like that forever. China needs a host of reforms, economic rebalancing. Thats going to lead to social stresses, economic stresses, political stresses. The new chinese president seems to be carving out more of his own personality, which is different from the previous baseless leaders that weve had in the past. So the future chinese leadership may be less predictable than that in the past, and if china goes t through social and econoc and political upheaval of some sort, it may have problems with its minority borderland of the turkey, muslim, we goers uighurs. So china itself may be centralized which would mean that the china that eventually is drawn closer and closer to taiwan may not be as dangerous for taiwan as the country in the past. One of the things, i throw out an idea in the book that i think will generate a lot of discussion, i hope. Everyone thinks the most important person, the most important chinese person in the last 110 years has been mousey tongue. And im arguing that mao zedong. Ultimate identity looking if you were decades might be chunk i checked. He embodies confucianism, enlightened authoritarianism, lease in his later years in taiwan. And turned taiwan into the model democracy that it is today. Even as china itself val vista referred as a nationalist figure now but if china goes through a political upheaval, that may change as will. The historical reckoning for mile is still the future. We are time for a couple more questions. How but this gentleman in the sweater . Rob jared, john hopkins. In your travels, what is your sense of who is has control of chinas Southeast Asia see policy . Is it the government or the pla and the vast Chinese Energy consortiums . Is a possible the tail is wagging the dog in Southeast Asia . First of all, even within the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army navy, there are differences of opinion. There are some naval voices in china that argue for a more conciliatory policy in the South China Sea. Remember, china is not as intelligent as it was under mile. When it was totalitarian, only a few men controlled everything, including the military. But as that system goes from totalitarianism to a more traditional authoritarianism, Different Power Centers emerged, including the military. So the military is more and more politically powerful, and the military has interests in promoting a very nationalist policy in the South China Sea. One thing to keep in mind is that if it were only up to elites, it might be easier for the chinese regime to have a more conciliatory policy and the South China Sea to compromise on the nine dash line as it were. But its not only up to the lead. China may not be a democracy, but Public Opinion matters a lot to the leadership. And the Public Opinion is very nationalist. And so as one official told me in beijing, he said, we can see a compromise in the future in the South China Sea, but the problem is selling it domestically. What is the political strategy for selling that domestically . Did they create that as their own problem because the state media created that feeling that was a nationalistic line that had been drawn in to see . That was partly the case. They created this, you know, they created this whole issue, but the issue also rose organically because of just the growth of the navy and air force there. And their ballistic they have just become, they are so much more powerful now than they were in 1993. Its a different world. Is the really buddy is there really nobody in the back . We will continue in the front. There is a gentleman here raising his hand. Away. The microphone will reach you. Im an associate with belfer center. In both the South China Sea and the asiapacific more generally, do you have litmus test in the book or just now, did his damage between policies that any other great rising are in china position would take versus policy that china would be pursuing if you really want to exercise dominance in the asiapacific . China lexs they were just doing with a growing economy, a growing conceptual of our National Interest and were doing what any other great power in our situation would do. Is there a way distinction between policies to anyone else would take versus if one wants to dominate the South Pacific . Look at the United States between the end of the civil war and the outbreak of world war i. The United States have Economic Growth rates for most of that area did extremely come near double digits almost every year. There were some hiccups here and there. The United States settled the continent, brutally perhaps, but it did so. And what did the United States do . It built a great navy and it dug the panama canal. And he became a great power. Why did that happen . Because the United States, after the civil war the north and south united, the United States developed a great economy and, therefore, developed trading interests around the world that they didnt have before. And so it needed a great military in order to defend those trading interests. You could say more or less china has been following a similar path. The yale professor, paul bracken, likes to say that the capitalists prosperity, if it goes on and on, leads to military acquisitions. You have a capitalist economy thats been a success for 30 years on and on. Its going to Start Building a big military. Thats what history shows us. So theres nothing rogue about what china has been doing in the larger historical sense. Its not threatening to destroy a nation or white in the nation off the face of the earth, or anything. Its emerging as a natural, new, great power. The problem that history shows is one of the reasons people love the status quo, even if the status quo is unfair, is that its stable. And so is the status quo goes on, youre less likely to have military conflict. But chinas National Revolution evolution after two centuries of decline and division is its changing the status quo and its leading to a change in the status quo in japan, from my quasipacifist nation to more of a normal nationalist nation. So here there and everywhere in asia, the status quo is changing. The status quo may be unfair, maybe he needs to change in some higher moral sense but also makes it much more unstable. Weve got time for one more question. Finally, somebody in the back. Way to go. You get our last question. Tom callahan. Tell us about your prologue or vitamin e to Pay Attention to asian empires when we think about these issues in asias cauldron . The book begins with a travel description of the rooms in Central Vietnam of an indian somewhat colmer but maybe indian civilization in the middle ages which was a great seafaring civilization. And it starts that way because i want to remind the reader that all everything i write is near period piece. China is on the move in the time that i write and, therefore, it has to be the center of the book that i write. However, in the past india, or indian civilization exercised tremendous influence in Southeast Asia, which is why the french called it indochina. Thats really the proper term, and so what im saying to the reader is, the past was very different him which means the future could be very different, too. The future could see a week into china, and china and tremendous economic disarray with a strengthening japan, a strengthening india, a much more complex power relationship. So that im reminding the reader that im very cautious about everything im going to write henceforth, to keep in mind this history of Southeast Asia. Please join me in thanking Robert Kaplan. [applause] congratulations on the book. He will be here for a while signing books. You to another question at him. Id also like to thank steve for being a wonderful, wonderful moderator. Thank you. Thank you very much. [applause]
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