Book. Youre watching booktv on cspan2. Host the gamble ucla professor bin is a coauthor of the book when you hear the term came a change which is that means you . A great question to talk about the 2012 election when i did game change something fundamentally would shift it was going if you were behind and i could become the head then there really looks like you will start losing so something that would shift the status quo. Host is there a game change in elections . Guest there can be but not recently so much but that does not mean there are not everchanging moments but a big one in the future in 2012 or 2008 . Not too many. Host go back to the first debate with mitt romney and barack obama. It is a great example of what can happen when you have unexpected events and Cross Sectional polling which is what we got almost entirely from media organizations. To understand the first debate back up to the 97 video so there we are in Orange County mitt romney is caught on tape saying the as part about the population ever being in his camp at all. It took a tremendous amount of coverage as we were tracking the same people over different points of time throughout the whole year what we saw after the 47 was people who supported romney early heard the comments and they moved to being undecided. Not entirely period you will every do that but moved to undecided and hong out there until the first debate romney hits the home run. Now people came back. And the store you heard in the news was of a ground swell support. It was people shifting back after 47 it was the most pleasing Campaign Movie ever made. Move early then have that debate and a looks like you have momentum. I was teasing that it is an incredible example hello looks like a game changer but is not. Host were there any in 2012 . Lot moved to the needle . Guest i have to say on average it did not move very much ever. People are shifting but they cancel each other out so a good 3 moves around day to day but not in the same direction and that keeps the top line results pretty steady so no moments nudged everyone in one direction or another. Host why did barack obama win in 2012 . Guest because he was the incumbent president providing over a slowly growing economy with just enough growth that things were set up for his advantage. Not a huge amount but a good amount. Slow but none neg. Host is it always the economy, stupid . [laughter] guest always. This state of the nation does play a fundamental role of you did not know anything else and you had to bet and note the change of the growth rate you could do pretty well to predict usually 75 percent of the time. Fully admit a monkey flipping a coin could be right 50 percent the we will do better than that we will be right 50 75 so it is important and incumbents perform well in those challengers who are not responsible for Global Financial crisis will do very well. There are some cases where people who are not predicted to win it come around to but theyre always very close. The closest in history and that is hard to do. He had his work cut out for him from the start as ned romney. Host how do we view our precedents . Guest okay. I think there are a couple of different ways to think how voters make decisions. To of the most commentaries go like this. The first is Party Identification are really loud and important signal it is a shortcut. One mostly i agree with democrats instead of taking the time i kgs in blue dash just use that as a shortcut. The second theory is slightly different that i called the Janet Jackson theory. What have you done for really lee . People think of the president ial election. And if were not as of war they reward performance. Those of the two biggest competing theories. Host what is your position here . Professor of Political Science and communications studies. I just finished teaching the very large introduction to american politics and they teacher course it in the 60s that isnt your disciplinary with people in the community. Host why did you call your book the gamble at . Guest in the great question we thought it was a great title because their verse several bets placed at the start of the election. Rewrote the book in realtime and published electronically as the campaign went on so we did not know how the booklet and when we began writing and publishing. May after the election we collected into the physical book your holding we needed at title that would be flexible matter the outcome. But what barack obama faced as a gamble was the slowly growing economy. Was that the nav . What about mitt romney . Should be pointed out obama had not destroyed the economy to the full level . Or Something Else entirely . And it should they return the incumbent president to the white house that only brought slow growth . That is why they took their chances on the challenger. Then the obvious campbell trying to enter the conversation. Host ended mitt romney ever have a chance of winning . To an absolutely. Yes. He had a chance. But it would be hard always. Host we heard a lot about barack obama afield a strategy field officers get out the vote. Guest we cover that. We went and down loaded the objectives of the field offices before the campaign and did that we knew where they said they had local field staff for by went and visited some in ohio. Week addisons of the operations of both candidates field offices. Here is the important take the way. To wellfinanced high leave professional capable candidates come a lot of what they do will cancel out and we see that over and over not only Field Operations but they have a lot of money and the groups supporting them have a lot of money so when barack obama has advantage of the Field Operation that isnt in a vacuum so at the end of the day the obama feels abolition had a bigger effect but they needed to mobilize more. So sometimes that does not necessarily mean better investment. Say you said if barack obama i did not have this Field Operation he still would have won . Right to. What he got advantage they were smaller than the overall margin. And not in the nafta affect is the electoral college. Host could mitt romney increases Field Operation to win it . Guest we dont think thats possible. We think the Romney Campaign made great strategic decisions. If they were going to make up any advantage barack obama had he was going to make it up in the last couple of weeks. To close the initial cap. At we have some mathematical analysis but then concluded by saying if they had run thats the day before the election rather than eight days before it bush have made the difference . And. Guest advertising fades quickly. That is one of the interesting takeaways is there is an impact but it doesnt last forever but it goes away within a couple of days. Late advertising makes a difference but the Romney Campaign cannot have advertised enough at the end to close the gap as it existed. It would have been impossible. Host of voters really and decided . Or are day apathetic . Yes is the answer. There are undecided voters sent there are those who dont show up. We need not to make too much of that. People are busy, raising children, working two jobs and dont have the time to figure out the polling place to go and vote i dont make too much out of that fact the campaigns to a great job do this to the extent we care about a fall electorate but they are all undecided. One out of 10 people to a thin after a couple six weeks there really moving around a lot. Host the news media loves the horserace and the numbers and a while back there was an early 2016 poll. Clinton 53 jeb bush 31 as a political scientist . Guest the first thing i would say it is way too early to think it is just those two people. We be meaningful for the party but at this point or 2,007 everybody was sure that was a contest between clinton and Rudy Guiliani but then we had barack obama and john mccain. It is way too early but Party Identification is a huge driver of boat choice so to the extent theyre drawn to Hillary Clinton in jeb bush is telling. And maybe they will get bin and maybe they wont. But the thing to watch is out is the economy doing . If we see more of highlevel it will be theirs to lose. Host when we look back to seize the Health Care Debate will that make a difference in 2016 . People think those pivotal issues and the fact is most of the people the war on women is a great example he stood up to Rush Limbaugh they were all have these issues to sway the voters to switch sides. Theres very little switching during the election. So i have to say it is unlikely they will shuffle the electorate. Host we hear that voters like a split the government. Do people think about that when they go to the polls . To renovate think about Party Identification. I sound like a broken record. It is a little exaggeration at this point to say it is important for people to have divided the government that may have been more true in previous decades but like her not there very well sorted into the Interest Groups they are made up of and the issues they support. That is great if they are of voter. If you know, what a means. But it provides little less overlap very few voters and then they vote for the president their blunt the other party to be in the chamber. Most of those elections are about incumbency and Party Identification and people whose split ticket tend to be less informed on politics. Host how did you become interested . Guest when i was in very young and went on vacation to mexico. Look at those Campaign Signs . Event and made a comment i hope the next president could help and im sure he thought that was a very often did comment not a real election. As in the yearold it struck me what do you mean . And i just became very interested to make sure to make the best possible choice. Host why did he say that . Because it was one party rule. Wasnt the kind of election and i thought that was being a Young American child. Host where diego to school . To one group bin cleveland and then hater Arizona State on a leadership scholarship then to rochester new york. I have been a ucla 12 years. Host hoosier coauthor . Guest a Political Science professor at George Washington university in and he steadies campaigns and elections. Of we had no professional relationship and i have a capacity to start a very popular blogging called the mckee cage. If anybody can do this work. Guest to run this worries me . He said i want to do it. There really was a gamble. Host is a hard to write a book coasttocoast. Guest it is incredibly hard but trying to right prickly in the less than one year it is brilliant because there were weeks it was every hour of the clock there are times them would go to bet at 3 00 in the morning he was going to bet at sitka getting a bit six thank you work on it is not ideal but you can do in nine months. Host what about the dnc and rnc . They are important collectors of tools for parties. Both do this to understand the value of 500 for how often they have been touched by a campaign. Being a Clearing House to institutionalize what the Obama Campaign did whoever there nominate is forever the infrastructure that is not only a benefit but also for people who are interested to chronicled these things. Host just a little bit of the gamble u. S. Up ucla professor lynn vavreck. Booktv on cspan2
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