Poll numbers, fundraising data and campaign ads. Watch the campaign trail friday night at 7 30 p. M. Eastern on cspan. Online at cspan. Org or download as a podcast at cspan now, our free mobile app or wherever you get your podcast. Cspan, your unfiltered view of politics. Since 1979 in partnership with the cable industry, cspan provided coverage from the house and Senate Floors to congressional hearings, party briefings and committee meetings. Cspan gives you a front row seat to how issues are debated and decided with no commentary, no interruptions, and completely unfiltered. Cspan, your unfiltered view of government. Host first guest is David Wassermann with political report, their Senior Editor elections analyst here to talk about campaign 2024 and the issues at hand. Mr. Wassermann, good morning. Guest good morning. Host who controls the house and senate after november. I know still several months away plus what are we seeing . Guest its a fascinating race, pedro. The democrats need four seats to pick up the house majority. Right now the outlook at the president ial level is very shaky for President Biden and democrats. The outlook in the senate is fairly bleak with democrats playing pretty much exclusively defense on the senate map but in the house there is a ray of hope for democrats, and right now the counts 221 republicans, 214 democrats effectively. There are a few vacancies which means four seats would get democrats to 218. There are 17 republicans in the house sitting in districts that voted for joe biden in 2020. There are only five democrats sitting in districts that voted for donald trump. For President Biden. Two states where democrats underperformed in the 2022 midterms, new york and california. The question of the split ticket voting dynamic. How many voters will vote strategically to balance their tickets. We saw this dynamic in 2016 and 2020 with the polls heading into election day. Those cycles showed democrats with a healthy need and a number of independent voters in swing districts decided that if democrats are going to hold the white house, maybe it is worth investing in a more conventional republican then donald trump down ballot to make sure democrats dont go too far left. Republicans had a decent year in 2016 holding the house and picked up a dozen house seats in 2020. The question this year is, are voters who are uncomfortable with the prospect of donald trump returning to the presidency, are they going to invest in a democrat down ballot as a means of trying to restrain trump from going too far in his direction. Host if i read the brake town from your organization, lesson 11 tossups, what are the races to watch in those states you describe . Guest if you add up all of the races in the Cook Political Report ratings that lean toward the democrats, there are 200 three seats. If you do add up the ones that lead toward republicans, there are 210 seats and then we have tossups in the middle that could go either way. Democrats would need to win two thirds of them for the majority but in 2022, they did and waited did win reporters. We are looking at a very narrow battlefield where 5 of americans are going to be voting in those tossup districts. Some of the races we are watching are in new yorks 17th a district where a republican freshman, Michael Lawler come up against a democrat who used to represent a good chunk of the seat. Lawler has been trying to carve out the antimarjorie Taylor Greene lane of the house public conference. He stood up for Kevin Mccarthy during the speakership fight and has also tried to secure a lot of funding for local projects that the district has a number of infrastructure needs in the hudson valley. This will be a fascinating race. We are watching in california a number of races both in the l. A. Area and central valley. One of the key races is in the Riverside County where republican ken calvert who has held the seat since 1992 is in a race against a democrat who came within six points of it beating him in the midterms. He is raising a lot of money in the palm springs area that has been trending toward it democrat. It is going to be one of the highest dollar fights in the state. Host a new speaker who has to fund raise. How does that factor into dividing the money into defending seats . Guest one of the reasons why democrats are moral or bullish on the house is that republicans have had a mess. It took 15 votes to elect a speaker and only 3 to overthrow Kevin Mccarthy. And now mike johnson is not only short on experience but also short on republican. Kevin mccarthy resigned. Both democrats and republicans teamed up to expel george santos. At the current juncture, republicans can only afford to lose one vote on any piece of legislation. To get to the finish line along party lines. The key question in the coming weeks is will mike johnson be able to keep his job if a ukraine aid package comes to the floor. Marjorie Taylor Greene is obviously holding the vote motion to vacate over his head. Although it is difficult for democratic strategists to make republican dysfunction in the house a Campaign Issue in and of itself, what democrats tell me is they hope this chaos gives the extreme message that they hope to run against republicans in districts and trying to tie it to abortion mans and ban and former President Trumps rhetoric. Host we are told from people as particularly women in suburban districts when it comes to those issues important to them that may factor into how they vote this coming november, abortion on the top of that list. 39 expecticizing the Biden Administration on immigration and that he would not only say his own party had fallen short but to blast does that factor in . Guest there is no doubt the president is underwater on immigration and the economy. The nbc news poll that came out showed that by more than 30 voters felt that donald trump would do a better job than joe biden when it came to securing the border. On the economy, donald trump had a 22 point lead. Abortion was the only issue where biden held a doubledigit lead at 4432. Democrats are fearful of what this means down ballot. There is a blueprint for democrats to be able to outrun joe bidens Approval Rating in pulling numbers. It was new yorks Third District where there was a special election in february where the democrat Thomas Whatley was able to confront democrats greatest weakness head on in the race against the republican. He decided he was going to show up at events criticizing the Biden Administration on immigration and that he would not only say his own party had fallen short but to blast republicans, particularly donald trump, for killing a Senate Immigration compromise bill. What we have not seen the president do on a daily basis is adopt that same strategy. Great sports players know how to turn defense into offense and right now the president and his campaign by trying to make abortion the centerpiece of his Reelection Campaign are kind of risking glossing over voters concerns about affordability, high Interest Rates and the situation at the border. There are potential dividends if democrats were to point the finger for killing that as a package to get done right away. Host David Wasserman is the guest. If you want to ask him about the races, you can call 202 7488001 for republicans. 202 7488000 for democrats. 202 7488002 for independents. You can text us at 202 7488003. These are the seats to watch, the center tour out of montana, nevada, ohio and arina has an open seat. Work through those as far as what to watch for. Guest democrats have no edge but one seat is already gone which is West Virginia where jim justice is a strong front runner to replace joe manchin. If republicans win the white house, then they will also win the senate because a 5050 senate and the tie is broken by the vice president. Democrats not only have to hold the white house but run the table on their own seats and there are a lot of vulnerable democratic seats varied at the top is ohio and montana. Sherrod brown and the montana i the only one who can hold the seat. They will run populist mpaigns against wealthy republican businesspeople in ohio. These are going to be very personal negative at races and we will see if they can outrun joe biden because they might need to buy 10 points or more to be able to win reelection. The other two races in the southwest that we have in the tossup column are arizona and nevada. I think democrats did get some good news in arizona. She announced she will not run and this makes it a two way race. Republicans in d. C. Are more resigned than excited. We have a better opportunity to win those voters that were present in a threeway contest. In nevada, the Senate Editor wrote a great ratings article moving the race to a tossup and republicans are bullish on their candidate sam brown who is likely to win the primary to face jacky rosen. Nevada is a very trendy state. A lot of the electorate is new. Jacky rosen is not a wellestablished brand in nevada. The harry reid machine got one across the line but pulling shows pulled out polling casey is and an open seat in michigan where republicans like their front runner candidate mike rogers a lot. There are many possible routes to a senate majority. The main question is, what is the republican margin because if it goes from 5141, the swing votes go from Kyrsten Sinema to joe manchin to perhaps Susan Collins who are functionally more like independence. If republicans win a majority, then donald trump if elected would have much more leeway to confirm cabinet appointees and pass an agenda. Host this is mike in indiana, independent line. Caller i couldnt vote for a democrat or republican right now. They blame stuff on people and it is not true. The person when they talked about trump and election interference and this trial about him having these documents and biden having them, the one that is responsible for it is the people that take care of it, the cia, fbi, and they should be a reason when they do Something Like that, they should be the ones who go to jail. Host to the degree the former president s legal issues deep into the congressional race, what do you think . Guest it is not clear that they will or be front of mine with voters while casting ballots. When we look at the polling surrounding Donald Trumps problems, it 53 of voters believe trump has committed crimes. But 18 of those voters are planning on looking for donald trump anyway. I think this election is going to come down to what i would call the addon electorate, the people who did not show up in 20 or 2020 for primaries but are going to show up this fall. There are 112 million who showed 112,000 100 and 12 millions who showed up and more will cast ballots. Who are the 40 million to 50 million additional voters. They are younger and more diverse and are more bluecollar and less College Educated but they identify as independents or unaffiliated and they are disillusioned with both candidates and the two system as a whole. You have a major flirtation with thirdparty candidates who are essentially vehicles for protest by these voters against between trump and biden. Rfk junior in many polls is getting younger voters. Although rfk junior appears to be perhaps even with perhaps trump and biden, we notice other thirdparty candidates pulling more from biden because they are in the antiprotest lane. That could lower trumps threshold for victory as much as 44 to 45 . The question is how did they vote down ballot . They are up for grabs. Host richard joins us from georgia, and democrats line. Caller reference the young folks not voting, i believe the gen z folks have spoken up like they did with demonstrations throughout the city like they did in San Francisco and others. On inflation, the corporate american greed is killing america. I saw a story last year where the ceo of kellogg was on a Conference Call saying they will intentionally raise prices to keep inflation going. The president listening to the young folks referencing the war in iraq, he has to get a handle on that. As a whole poll worker and i know that they are good and safe and secure. The president needs to look at the congressman for the seat in long island recently because, the democrats need to learn to go on offense and stop playing defense and listen to the gen z folks. Guest the caller touched on the conflict in the middle east and this is one that is preventing joe biden to getting back to the 2020 level of support among young voters. No question he needs to replicate his margin among young and nonwhite voters to have a good chance of being reelected. He won nonwhite voters 70 percent to 23 and 18 to 29, with a 22 point margin. Now the new york poll that came out, joe biden was only leading nonwhite voters 62 to 30 . He was only leading 18 to 29 by two points, which wouldnt cut it. It would probably preclude his path to winning reelection. I think a lot of it does have to do with the thermometer reading for biden right now among young voters on College Campuses and dissatisfaction with his policies toward israel and gaza and also disillusionment with the political system as a whole and the candidates considering their age. Host james is in illinois, independent line. Caller i was just wondering. I dont understand the blind following of israel that the United States put themselves in the position of and why are we getting involved in this when they clearly attacked iran and everyone knows it. I dont know why the media is putting on the spin that israel should retaliate when they were the aggressors. When are we going to stop blindly following this we take you to new york where former President Trump finished day two of his trial. Mr. Trump this is an exciting time because the Bodega Association invited me and they respect me and want law and order and they have tremendous crime where their stores are being robbed. As you know, were going to give new york a very good shot for the presidency. We think we should be able to do it. A lot of things have changed. Lee did a wonderful job. And new yorks a lot different. And well work with the governor and bring in a lot of federal money. [crowd chanting four more years] mr. Trump these are great friends but have incredible crime. More than 50 of people, the majority believe [inaudible] mr. Trump i heard 78 think its a rigged deal. It is a rigged deal. Its a rigged trial. Our courts. Everything is screwed up in new york and the whole world is watching. This judge is so conflicted. Youll understand that. Take a look at that. Theres never been a judge so conflicted. Its ridiculous. Also, theres no crime. You know where the crime is, in the bodegas where they come and rob them every week. Reporter what in your mind is an ideal juror . Mr. Trump anybody thats fair. Ill let you know after the trial. Dont forget, were appealing. If you look and you take a look around, a good strong look, every legal scholar, every legal pundit said there should be no trial. There was nothing done wrong. This is all politics and coming out of the white house. And you know, it makes me campaign locally and thats ok. [crowd chanting we want trump] mr. Trump were doing better now than weve ever done. Its having a reverse effect. All i want is fairness. These people have to be treated better. The Bodega Association, the bodegas, because every week theyre being robbed two or three times. Its crazy. You know what, the police can do it. They can stop it but have to be allowed to do their job. Reporter what can you do to give them hope to restore the american dream, atlanta, new york, philly, chicago . Mr. Trump number one is stop crime. Let the police do their job. They have to be given back authority. Well come into new york. Were making a big play for new york, other cities, too. But this city, i love this city and its gotten so bad in the last three years, four years and were going to straighten new york out. So running for president , we think we can win new york with half a million migrants, that took over your park and hotels and take over everything. And you know what theyve done, theyve destroy sod many people. The Africanamerican Community now is not getting jobs, migrants are taking their jobs that are here illegally. Hispanics are not getting jobs, migrants are taking the job. If you look the a the unemployment, the unemployment is good for migrants now. It went up 10 for all migrants. And theyre in our country. Now, theyre coming from prisons, i dont know if you know, they come from mental institutions, they come from prisons, and they come from places you dont want to know about. Theyre coming from jails and prisons, mental institutions, and insane asylums and you have massive numbers of terrorists coming into our country all because of biden. By the way, this trial i have now, thats a biden trial. They want to keep me off the campaign trail but based on what im doing, i think theres more press here than there is in other locations. The police have to be able to do their job. The police in new york are great. They have to be able to do their job. They have to protect these people. Look at thisup man and he has a son that looks like hes a movie star, much better looking than the father and the father looks good. You know what, he said hes robbed all the time. How are you doing . Well, were robbed all the time. Beautiful place. Hes robbed all the time. Its alvin brags fault. He does nothing and goes after guys like trump who did nothing wrong. Violent criminals, murderers, there are hundreds of murderers all over the city. They know who they are, they dont pick them up. They go afte