Strategic and international studies. Go ahead . Ok, great. Go ahead . Ok, great. Im dan and i hold the chair here at csis. We are having a conversation about afghanistan one year later. The consequences of withdrawal, and what are our responsibilities to the Afghan People and ourselves. I really did not want to convened this meeting. I would rather we did not withdrawal. Maybe im in the minority but i think there were a bunch of bad consequences to withdrawing, but i know there are a lot of different views and many may not agree with me. I do think that there were shortterm and longterm consequences from this. I also think this will reverberate for a long time and it had implications all over the world, not just in afghanistan that here and in other parts of the world. I think we are going to have a very long and interesting discussion about this. But one of the things i worry about is because afghanistan is in a forgotten corner of the world, it is easy to sweep under the rug and think about other things. We have lots of other things going on in the world, so it is a small place but it has the ability in the grand scheme of things, to come out and reach out and touch us. I remember 9 11 clearly, and thats why i think we were in afghanistan and i dont want us to ever have to go back there in a military way. I worry if there is some other debate and some other bad event were to happen it would force us to go back and i dont want that to happen. So weve got a number of thoughtful speakers. We start with congressman peter meijer with prepared remarks. He represents a district in michigan and is a military veteran and served in afghanistan. We will play the tape and then we will hear from my friend, a visiting fellow here and we will have it panel discussion. Lets roll the tape to congressman meijer. [video] rep. Meijer this is congressman peter meijer, and im honored to be speaking on one Year Anniversary of the withdrawal of afghanistan. We were in the republic of afghanistan and to be speaking at csis at this momentous occasion, i live in a unique position as a member of congress but also as someone who fought in iraq. I know what it is like to have body armor, armored vehicles, air support, medevacs and all of those things that are our soldiers and sailors have abroad. But also that have spent time in afghanistan as a humanitarian aid worker. When afghanistan fell, that was a scenario we had been concerned about for a while in congress, specifically concerned, and this coming from somebody who believes in the need for us to move toward a negotiating power, that the only way we could achieve peace in afghanistan would not have been through unilateral engagement on behalf of the Afghan Government, but the only way this would end peacefully was to review a powersharing agreement hammered out that had clarity and would respect all parties of the conflicts. 20 years on and one year post the end of the american efforts in afghanistan, 20 years on i think it is important to reflect on where we came from and where we are going. Where we came from, in the pre9 11 moment was the collapse in afghanistan that led to the rise of transnational terrorist organizations that could strike the west. Specifically, that was al qaeda. 20 years later we are on the same precipice of concern and state collapse that could lead to the rise or empowerment of these organizations. The presence of the number one and al qaeda, at least from opensource source reporting, who was in the statehouse protected, under the temporary protection of him and his loyalists, is concerning. Whether or not al qaeda was actively planning to strike at the United States, that is a violation in the most obscene and transparent way of the doha agreement that was signed in 2020. But more importantly it strikes at the heart of what should our main priorities and objectives be in afghanistan today . That is what i want to focus on. I am a big believer that the United States cannot afford the same decent interval we had in vietnam. The question of engagement, the question of choosing who we talk to and where and how, we are not in a position to put ego first. We are not in a position to act on the basis of emotion. We need to be focus on strategic, longterm International Interest and competition. We need to focus on understanding and never forgetting why we went into afghanistan in the first place. We have a vested interest in making sure that afghanistan does not collapse. That there is not an overwhelming humanitarian catastrophe that will only empower those who seek to do the last part. We have that on the one hand. But we also have the strong desire in my view to make sure that afghanistan does not return to the fold of actors who are fundamentally underlined or opposed to the strength of the west. Afghanistan today is caught in an interesting conundrum. They have a long among the taliban and the network. They have a long standing support network in pakistan. They have ties to the chinese and russian government. But among the leadership, there is an interest, and i cannot claim the degree of sincerity, but there is a degree of interest in engaging with the west and taking on more of a saudi model, getting to the point where the west recognizes that afghanistan will not be a perfect jeffersonian democracy tomorrow, but that there is a big distinction between that and what we currently have. I think that is important for us to focus on, and that is important for us to remember at the end of the day. It is very easy to fall victim to delusions of grandeur, the idea that there is some wonderful rebellion that is going to come from there and sweep into kabul. If you recall from 2001 and the taliban protestations against surrendering, al qaeda figures who were in afghanistan have been planning to attack the u. S. And there was a fine line going back to the late 2000 what 20 01 period, where we had the question of will they release figures or will the u. S. Have to invade . They fell back and said we would need to come get them and they would not cooperate. I hope, and my prayer is that in a post hot moment joe half moment doha moment is that we can figure out that what is the longterm interest of the u. S. Is not polluted with shortterm concerns. What i saw on the ground at the International Airport last year, it was and this was a comment made to me by a number of american and International Personnel it was a sincere belief and sincere surprise that frankly the United States and Coalition Personnel worked closely alongside the taliban. The taliban were not the focus that were trying to kill us in that window. This was something that shocked many of us who were there expecting resistance. Expecting confrontation, difficulty when the approach they took was we signed an agreement, what can we do to help . How can we be of assistance . I think it is continuing to be a reality that we have not grappled with, we have not been able to set aside our immediate prior with where our longterm interests are that region. I hope we are able to get to that point. I think it is imperative that we get to that point. Because the threat of a widespread humanitarian catastrophe in afghanistan will be tragic on a moral standpoint and on a strategic standpoint for the United States. We have invested too long to turn our backs on this region and we dont have the luxury we had in the post vietnam period to have that interval where we adjusted reassess. I know i am probably taking a position that maybe unpopular in some quarters, but we need to be real about our strengths and weaknesses, and about our dynamics in afghanistan today. I think there is tremendous opportunity. We should not shy away from engaging and from holding them accountable on issues from humanitarian aid to disavowal of al qaeda and getting women back in school. Those are areas where we should not take the first now for the answer and walk away from the table. We need to recognize that we have mall, strategic considerations that have to be taken into account. Im excited to hear today. Im sure we will hear from members of various organizations that will place impacts to be focusing on what the longterm impact looks like. We cannot remain stuck in the past. We cannot be solely focused on what has occurred. We need to hold that in balance with what has yet to pass and what is coming down the pipe. Because those are equally weighted when it comes to the future of American Security in central asia. Thank you. Hello, how are you . Thank you so much. As you can imagine, not only me but i think most people are not in a good situation mentally, emotional. Emotionally. It is a hard moment for us. We would welcome any additional thoughts. You dont have to say much because i know it is a difficult thing to discuss, but i know you were there and i think it was quite dramatic. You were there and i think you are the unwelcome you were held as im going to four a prisoner in kabul before you were allowed to leave. Your husband was in essence killed by the taliban and you were also the only woman member of the negotiating team. I know it is a difficult day because it brings up a lot frankly. But i think it is important that we hear from you a little more. I think it would be inappropriate to be talking about afghanistan without an important voice like yours here. I know there is a lot of loss, and im hoping we can find hope. It is not a particularly hopeful moment in the United States, but i wanted to give you a chance to reflect about what are some of the things you are concerned about, but if i can use the term, you can be minorly optimistic about given the circumstances and the fact that how you and so many others had to leave under such awful circumstances. Thank you so much, and thank you for being for giving me this platform, to be part of this Wonderful Team at a of people. It is a sad day for people of afghanistan, especially for women and girls who had aspirations. Today, with the memories of what happened last year on the 15th of august, and what happened before the 15th of august. On the fourth of july when the last American Military airplane left the airbase, i in my intervention, i was saying we do not know who is going to be there one year come now. Looking at the dynamic of regional interest and the growing influence of certain countries in the region, i think afghanistan once again is between the superpowers for important geographical locations, the security impact that the security in afghanistan would have added the consequences. I think it has created an analysis that we, the people of afghanistan, the partners need to believe that. The first is that we are the only ones that are able to fight. Other groups are military groups including al qaeda. The narrative was that they have changed taliban 2. 0 and three they will reflect us. They said they want to be part of a political process. They find that even as of february 2020, committing the issues i mentioned. Not women and human rights because theres no mention of that in the doha agreement. But since the handover of kabul to the taliban and two from the other, i think none of the narrative the taliban have created have come true. With military extremist groups and al qaeda, but also for my contact inside afghanistan and my wide Network Across afghanistan i know there have been a lot of military extremist groups from central and other countries using afghanistan. My concern would be that it may get out of afghanistan and put Global Security at risk. When it comes to the settlement, the doha agreement was signed and i went to talk with the taliban. I have realized they are not the same taliban with whom we work engaged we were engaged before. They have expedited the war. We have started negotiations and they have started the war, attacking cities, like in october 2020. This was against the commitment. When it comes to women and human rights, they are not up to scratch. What they do it when it comes to eliminating womens rights is they invest that time and energy on changing the economy or the security situation, trying to redefine a Foreign Relations policy, the situation would be different. But since they have taken over, they have issued 28 decrees eliminating womens freedom, from access to school, to work, to access to resources. Which is sad. Moving forward, i think the taliban are in a different kind of relationship with the regional dynamics of power. I know there is a lot of countries in the region that are in afghanistan, they have a lot of economies and i think the taliban have tried a Foreign Policy toward the region. The city as excepted the talibans diplomat, and i think if they abandon afghanistan, if the u. S. Think mission accomplished, in a country that both americans, european allies access, it is a treasure. If they walk away, the security consequences will be huge. So what should be done . You need to use your leverage for political purposes. That is with parseparticipation. With international diplomats, there is not much literature. We went from one extreme to another. One extreme was fighting with the taliban, the other was making them be a partner by sending assigning a deal. There are clinical pressures, the taliban working with other countries, especially the members, the best pakistan officially, to make them promise , they have taken power. Several of the countries in the region have created, that the reason for the economy is because of covid. The money needs to be returned to people of afghanistan because we are the main victims along with those but we need to keep in mind that the taliban creates income which pays for soldiers. They have increased the number. Why are they increasing the number . To prepare themselves for a fight. We cannot, in a country that is full of these forces, we cannot continue forever. There should be more and the priority should be more political approach. The supported political process in the region, nobody else can do that. I think we must use leverage before it is too late. Not for the people of afghanistan but for your own as well. Thank you. Thank you. Im so grateful you agreed to be a visiting fellow. You will be coming next month to washington, making you feel welcome in d. C. I know there are folks here who will want to help me and thank you for that thoughtful and important contribution. Thanks for being here on this difficult day. I appreciate it. Let me just say say one other thing. What i have said to Senior Leaders in some gulf countries is if you want your head of state to get the Nobel Peace Prize, and most governments, most heads of state want to win the Nobel Peace Prize, especially for lessdeveloped countries. The way to get the Nobel Peace Prize for a golf state or the head of the state of qatar or the Prime Minister of pakistan is to make sure girls can go to high school in afghanistan. If one of the countries delivers that, i will be the first person to nominate that head of state and i suspect many people will help nominate that head of state. If im the head of state of pakistan or qatar, one of the uae gulf states, they want to be heroes, they would help solve this problem. So i think her point, about countries that have relations with the taliban, perhaps it will be something to think about. Lets get them a Nobel Peace Prize. Norway, if you are listening, help us out. But im quite serious. Think about what other peoples incentives are. I dont think we can kill people. Lets appeal to some people with other interests. I wanted to have a conversation with people i respected and have a lot of thoughtful things to say. I think you will all agree that congressman meijers comments were impressive he wasnt defeated two weeks ago in a primary and a number of bad actors intervened in his primary and so people should look at themselves in the mirror and if they participated and be ashamed of themselves. The second thing is, we are very grateful to have her, who has had her bodyguards and husband killed by the taliban. She was an unwelcome guest of the taliban after the fall of kabul. I am grateful she have time to speak with us. We have had a number of a voice here that i wanted to hear from to talk about what are the consequences and what do we owe the Afghan People and owe ourselves. One of the regional and global consequences of withdrawal and what do we need to look out over the horizon on russian mark there is a temptation both in washington and among the American People to forget about it. It has receded from the front pages of the newspaper and it is a small, forgotten part of the world. We cant get there directly. For us to engage we have to have a relationship with somebody. We have to have a relationship with china, probably isnt going to happen. We need to have a relationship with russia, probably isnt going to happen. We need to have a relationship with iran, probably isnt going to happen. And we need to have a relationship with pakistan. You can only engage with afghanistan if you have the cooperation of one of those countries. I will start with the humanitarian issues and ask my friend bill okeefe, the executive Vice President permission, mobilization, and to talk about the Current Crisis and i hope you will briefly touch on how we are doing at receiving people here because we have a strategic responsibility to host as many people as we could whether in here or other countries outside of afghanistan. Bill i love your arterial for the Nobel Peace Prize. I will put a check on that. Catholic release Services Relief services been in afghanistan since 1998 and is supporting education, cash Disaster Response and agriculture. Right now we are seeing what other humanitarians are and the u. N. Is reporting that 41 Million People in afghanistan, 92 are facing food insecurity. Another 18. 9 of that, our more life threatening insecurity, one of the highest levels around the