Transcripts For CSPAN Capitol Hill Hearings 20120314

bay packers, you do not just feel confident, you act confident, and we will see romney looking like an nominee. they think that is where he is headed. they expect an uphill race against president obama. they are under no illusions, and they say they cannot wait. they think after getting the nominee, it will help him become a nominee. the more he focuses on obama, the more it marginalizes santorum and newt gingrich, and they think the momentum and a math will take care of itself. >> the polls have just closed in alabama and minnesota -- and mississippi. how can naysay it is a big -- how can they say it is a big night for him? that does not seem to me like an emphatic endorsement. it seems like a weak front runner going on to the next day where he will squeak out another victory. >> later we will play the tape for you and me will say we did not see anything about a big night. we said after tonight the romney folks are feeling good because tonight is not an existential threat to them. we have been talking about nights that mitt romney past to win. tonight, he is fine. he will not live or die tonight. that strategy after night is to act like a winner, they want to get on, they know they need to, and they think by getting on to get it will help them in the fight against gingrich and santorum. when you hear from santorum, he will portray himself as an insurgent. he will say that he is now going race if he two-ma n wants. romney will try to marginalize him. >> a quick question -- how does the romney campaign to make that campaign? they tried thing like a winner after iowa and new hampshire. south carolina refuted that. how is that different this time? how is that different given these are going to be a plurality gwynn and alabama will be a loss, most likely. he is still having trouble with that base. they will argue they did better where they needed to. they want you to rebut me. >> mississippi republican voters, the country club voters than in alabama. will that not be the argument from santorum's team? >> romney world recognizes that. maggie wants you to -- the romney folks are is going to say he is cut act like a winner tonight. maggie is saying that is not going to work, but he still has a big problem. romney folks will tell you running against the president the base will take care of its elf. the fact they are not excited about their diet is not excess -- decisive. >> in the weeks ahead, does he focus on something more like 95% of his comments? this from the focus 90% or more on president obama? will he make the transition, tit for tat? if he wins tonight and goes on to win illinois, you will start to see that, because at that point it is not clear that he is ever going to face a serious challenge within the party, and there is going to be pressure on him to start framing the argument against president obama. we talked to the house whip last week. he said he thinks romney should start now ignored meet and to ignore -- santorum and give a speech once a week to contrast with president obama. >> maggie, i would love free to jump in. there are people calling for governor romney to put meat on the bones, to be out with his own programs. what they will say is they want this to be about obama, they want to reduce the targets on their own back. >> which is why i think you are going to see him focusing more on obama. today in misery is focusing on obama. if he keeps winning and winds in places like mississippi, -- wins mississippi and illinois, you will see the focus on the president. what that does is that nudges us in the media to stop covering gingrich and santorum. if those guys cannot make progress in the delegate count, do they stop getting the coverage? if it is not talking about them, are they still going to get the buzz of attention? >> the way they can get coverage is any time, no matter how late, is by throwing the kitchen sink, bike really try to peel back skin. that will guarantee coverage. do they have the nerve to do it? >> the kitchen sink strategy. we could have a kitchen sink strategy. how does santorum, if from the is trying to marginalize him, if ignoring santorum -- we did not think there are debates, so what do you do if you are santorum? how do you get a microphone or how be used in the game? >> you have to be creative, and you have to hope newt is not winning that he drops out. you hope first of all that newt drops out or moves toward dropping out. the creative. where is romney going to be put give a speech wherever he is. show up nearby and get as speech. be creative. that is what he is going to think about doing. i do not think we are there yet, but i do think romney notch is a win or two tonight, winds illinois, at that point we're moving -- wins in illinois, we are moving at that point to a different stage of the campaign. the candidates have not dropped out, but the party and the political class are moving on. >> we will come back in a little bit. maybe get you professional mikes by then. a couple updates. polls closed nine minutes ago. we do not have results. we're getting exit polling data. rick santorum performed very, very well, among evangelical and born-again christians. that makes both of those groups make up the bulk of voters in the states create good news. both begich and santorum did well among voters who described themselves as conservative. this is mississippi and alabama. everybody consent -- everybody is conservative. we have ginger dixon with newt gingrich in birmingham, alabama. ginger, a couple things -- why is gingrich in birmingham? why alabama, not miss a beat? i want you to get to the question i asked earlier, take a behind-the-scenes, what it is like to be covering begich and what life is like a newt gingrich bubble? >> he is there today because they think he can do well. alabama is next door to his home state of georgia, he lived right on the border at one. when he was a child. they thought they were going to do well here. we are still hearing positive things, not the sadness we would expect coming out for the apprehension looking at the exit poll numbers that been floating around. it is an interesting right to be following gingrey cha. today they told us we were going to the zoo with the speaker. he is a huge fan of animals. the rain canceled that. we got to go to space can and see the rockets. long days, long hours, but a lot of fun. different things, when you get to the different places, and the food is one of all. we had eaten it very well the last few days in alabama and mississippi. >> fabulous, and ginger. we're getting exit polling data that says electability matters most. romney is doing very well among those voters. if he wins that will be the reason he wins in every state. so far people feel he is the more delectable of the three, and based on my e-mail, the frustrations with obama among conservatives burned as hot today as they board a year ago. at the end of the day, i think romney can get the party to coalesce around him. the rich -- gingrich is accessible. he likes the media. he did this interview with someone on our staff. he respects the people who travels with him, which is good puerto rico. i think he means it because he loves the back and forth. he can win that debate, and he gets the game. it does not mind mixing it up with people and loves a good intellectual debate. >> i will threat that back to you. does he like this? did he like this when he was in that house? >> no. [unintelligible] he has all these ideas and often does ideas will contradict the idea he had a day earlier, which is problematic. the leader of the republican party, in the media room, and you promised not to come to us unless you have something hot. what do you got? >> we have early exit polls from cnn trickling in. 35%, romney, newt gingrich, 29%, ron paul, 5%. interesting perspectives. we talked earlier about in mississippi it is so close - military- ballots come over 1000 of them -- would determine the election. in mississippi you look back at 2008. 1/3 of these ballots were counted by 9:00 p.m. depending on how close these states are, that will depend on how late this goes. there are interesting perspectives down south from from folks whoers, are giving their perspective. we have an exit poll suggesting it may be a good night for romney. another guy he has heard the past couple days, today especially, a lot of folks who would never vote for mid romney saying they would vote for mitt romney. a lighter note, the books out there in the panel will appreciate this, we have a person saying jim is pretty cute. also, maggie is very good, but this is not exactly news. very good on the set. we have more fans from sweden to in the -- tuning in. we have other folks tweeting @ us. >> thanks, we will talk about money in a moment. e-mail me directly at live@politico.com. a question, why do you think that romney is running on the republican ticket? he is a moderate, not a republican. >> that is a bit of a loaded question. >> it speaks to what a santorum or aching courage -- or a newt gingrich supporter would say. >> over the last couple months, the choice romney made of going to massachusetts, basically geography is against him. this is a guy who is from michigan. his positions other than the flip-flop on abortion, he shifted, denied he has shifted in other areas. there is evidence suggesting otherwise. this is a guy whose positions are nearer to orem's and newt gingrich's. they are not far apart, but it is a branding thing. the massachusetts moderate line is one newt gingrich has used four weeks. >> if you hear this chance, it says bring in the money man. he knows more about money than any man in america. i have a screw loose. i think money matters so much. the influence of the super pacs is the second biggest story of the campaign. if he had a sugar daddy, you have a good shot at the nomination. newt, santorum have one. walk us to the numbers, who is raising what, who is spending what come and break down what matters. >> we have seen it in the ability of newt gingrich or rick santorum to continue on, and wage fairly aggressive battles in these states where they have absolutely no infrastructure. by traditional metrics, raising money, being able to put open offices and people on the ground, there is no way that grichr santorum or camgin would still be alive without the benefit of the super pak spirit what we have now with the federal court decisions, is there are these candidates specific outside groups that had become the de facto campaigns. we have seen in some states, florida most acutely, where there was a super pac that supports newt gingrich, set up offices and did the ground game in a way we have not seen in a long time. arguably, the democrats had in 2004, that set up ground operations in key swing states, pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, but we have not seen that type of thing in the primary straight at is what is different now. it is worrying a lot of conservatives. a lot of people in the republican establishment saying all this money coming in to wage war on each other would have been withheld and only give it in a general election once there was a nominee, and the money could be used against the other side's candidate. >> you said they set up offices in florida. they did not do a very good job since newt gingrich lost by a lot. isn't the biggest impact in ad spending? hasn't mitt romney gotten the best benefit? certain people are keeping certain campaigns alive, but would mitt romney be where he is without his super pac? >> he has the trappings of a traditional organization and has raised a ton of money by itself. you add on top of that the money of the super pac with which she can bombard his opponents. i make the argument that rick santorum and newt gingrich would not be alive but for their super pac, but romney would not be alive at all. the fact that mitt romney goes into these states, and outspends gingrich santorum by 10 to 1 or more and salvages victories, that is telling. without that he would have lost some of the states. interesting that you point out that a lot of that is spend on the ads, and that is the best money spent. in fact it is only used, because these really wealthy guys who want to feel they are players, they do not have this long view and do not have the strategy. they get super excited like any activist, and they get excited in the days or weeks before an election, and they call for all the money in, and by that time it is too late. the only thing you can do is to spend it on ads, because yet a short window and you have to hope there is at a time that is still available. >> the most important change in money is that six months ago it this city thought that barack obama would raise $1 billion in clean -- and clean any republican boss clock pick if you total up what the candidate can raise, what these and outside groups that are advised by karl rove can raise, republicans could raise more money, and they might raise more money into county and democrats. money does not buy elections, but it certainly helps. thanks with us talking about money. why are you making predictions? because we have to kill two hours of programming. the tree is we're not trying to make predictions. we are trying to bring to you information we're getting from campaigns and read their body language, because you probably have the same screw loose for politics as we do, and from the back, people want to be part of that conversation. we have juana sommers in louisiana, his voting next week. the most recent poll in louisiana as rich santorum with a slight lead, another good conservative state with lots of christians. anything you are picking up from your sources when they are looking at these results, especially exit polling data? >> we have not had that, but there is cautious optimism. santorum is not overjoyed, but they are optimistic that tonight will be a good night for them as they look at these accidents coming in. >> how much access are you getting to the santorum people? are they trying to spin you put our they wanted you to feel that there is this optimism? >> they have been out speaking with reporters, and the manager was chatting with us a little bit ago. we're getting good access. they are walking through the room. there is certainly a lot of access still. they are feeling pretty good. nobody is quarantined in the back room of a hotel. >> how many reporters are traveling with santorum now? >> we talked about before, the campaign does not have flex travel. it is a very small press corporate if you look in comparison to say the corps travels with romney, there is a a less consistent pattern of traveling with santorum. >> how was the food? >people want to know. >> got to get a bowl of gumbo. >> is the food the campaign is providing at these types of events? we know a well-fed press court tends to be happy press corps. >> this press corps feeds themselves. we go it alone to caravan all these things. if you travel with other press you might get some of their fee. >> we got to cut you off because with breaking news coming out of the newsroom. what do you got for us? >> and well fed newsroom is a happy newsroom. we have new haven pizza, upgraded from previous election nights. we talked all the campaigns, what does this disappointing that look like for newt gingrich put it was possible he was going to win two tonight. it looks like he will win none. people are talking about his campaign in clinical terms very one person said it went as one candidate break the will of another? here's a conversation you were here about newt gingrich. if he goes out now, soon, he goes out a happy warrior. he goes out not in debt, adding make his point. on the other hand the reason the other campaigns are not sure gingrich will get out tonight is that he sees himself in a historical drama, sees himself as a historical churchill-esque figure. could we have a contested convention? that is up to these other candidates. it would be historic. we just got the mockup of politico at the top. it says obama unable to stay above 50%. what are you watching tonight? what are you learning that will make a difference by the time you come out at 6:00 a.m. >> the sign of the newt gingrich deathwatch. early results did not look good, but we are also looking on y e -- of hawaii. >> james is the only person who will get the white called in real time. >> 17 delegates are at stake. the first time hawaii has caucus. romney feels good about it all three have sent their children -- >> ron paul has been mention -- is the first time he was mentioned tonight. >> ron paul is weak in the south. >> he did not even go tonight -- >> it looks like a single-digit night for him. he feels good about missouri because it is a caucus, which placed to his strength. ron paul feels like he has fallen out of the conversation. they want to stay in it, but they felt it will be a waste of time to campaign in states where hostile to ronre not paul's message. >> he has a fervent -- he has fervent supporters. i talk to the campaign a little bit ago and they said they were focused -- the campaign told me they are focused on a delicate maximize asian strategy. in english that is what we used to call smoke and mirrors. >> a good translation, and their strategy -- the worst thing that happened to ron paul was for this to be competitive race. newt gingrich and rick santorum were not in this race, ron paul would be getting 30%, and that would have allowed him to accumulate delegates to be a player at the convention, to push for changes, to get a good speaking slot. now they are focusing on i a lot, hoping their volunteers show up. in nevada, they took over the republican party over the weekend, and they hope to accumulate up to 20% of delegates for the convention. once they maximize the it delegates -- it is unclear what he will do with them. >> we have been getting posts from around the world, including one from your niece, and she saw a local gym on the tv and wants to -- she saw on called jim -- uncle jim on the tv. >> i have elbert from alabama who has just offered a dare. i will take him out. he says regardless of who gets the nod, who are you and the rest of the gang going to put forth in this general election? i am assuming obama, because karl marx is not going to be on the ballot. we get a ton of our reporters' bias. i have worked "the wall street journal," most of them vote democratic. it is one thing we try hard on, to be down the middle. we do not get everything right, but it is important that republicans and democrats trust us. in washington we do not want anyone to like us because if we are doing our job, we are roughing you up. where feuding -- i do think for conservatives in the past, there are some legitimate concerns about too much liberalism in the mainstream media. i hope people come to poltico and check us up. i think being on the sly streams where you are listening to us for four hours, -- live at streams were you are listening to us for four hours, i would be surprised if you found a bias. >> if i could make two quick points. it is like a theme with every campaign. it is really interesting to watch as the media evolves and changes. at politico because we are so focused on the tactics of the campaign, almost like the campaign as a sport. we are more interested in that then the philosophical policy battles over who is right and who is wrong on a given policy. there was less monastic -- manifestation than you would have that other more traditional media outlets that try to focus on what this means to readers in their deadly -- readers in their daily lives. you hear the most biased from rick santorum supporters saying fox news and the conservative media is biased against rick santorum. they're trying to rally behind mitt romney to in the process. i was speaking with a prominent rick santorum supporter who was at this fund-raiser in houston, texas where he raised $1.7 million between his campaign and super pac, money that is needed for him to stay alive. he said, i have been reading politico. i think you are fair. he has a problem with fox news. >> for our viewers joining us on c-span, it is about a:30. poll's seven closed for about 30 minutes. we are getting a lot of exit polling data in. nothing really clear. i cannot tell you who i think will win either stayed at this point. we will go back to that. we are really happy c-span is covering this for the second time. a quick antidote to tell you how rapid the c-span fans are. there was a concert in scranton, pa. this weekend. a guitarist jump on stage and said -- i saw politico llive. they started chanting "c-span." we love it that they are covering it. largely from my experience from covering capitol hill and politics, c-span viewers are into this. they are into the importance of policy and political discussions. hopefully folks in the back room can line up charlie so we can get him on camera to bring down the states again and help us navigate the politics of mississippi and alabama so we have a better indication. he seems very excited to tell us something right now. >> i used to cover the capital in pennsylvania there. i have a special affinity for northeastern pennsylvania. she has a relative who lived in the house -- who lives in the house that joe biden grew up in the or that one of his relatives lived in. joe biden had written -- he went back to this house to the attic where he had written on the wall in the attic something about joey b was here. >> i just want to get back to results of the viewers know these results are coming in very slowly. looking at our website, 0.1% of precincts reporting. " it's a little bit of breaking news -- >> a little bit of breaking news, obama and mitt romney tied at 47% for likely general election voters. for those of you who have watched the show from beginning to end, that is an advantage over harris about the electability of president obama and this race. let's get back to the result. what you are hearing from the rick -- when you are hearing from the mitt romney people. they were confident going in. they thought it would be a night or the coronation would begin. they seem to start this night feeling similarly confident that they will when one state. >> the state that they think they are going to win is the state the governor has endorsed them. they have a much better sense of how things are going. skiers and ohio and michigan where things are much closer than they expected them to be have made them pull back expectations. they're feeling bullish on this is very telling. they are being serious about alabama saying they do not expect to win there. they have been smarter on expectations the entire time. they do not want to let victory get away from him. that is my take. >> i am looking at my e-mail as we talk. i like to multitask. there is some frustration in the coverage where people think newt gingrich keeps getting edged out of the coverage. he has a fair number of delegates. he has won some states -- at least south carolina which is an important state. why do you think newt gingrich does not get as much billing in the media? if you watch the news, you do not see as much coverage as newt gingrich. why is he not seen as as serious of a threat as rick santorum is? what you do see the conservative movement trying to coalesce behind rick santorum. in houston some of this conservative leaders got together and backed up their unifying behind rick santorum by putting up money for him and putting up $1.8 million for his campaign and his super pac. there is this effort by the conservative movement separate from the republican establishment, which they would like nothing more for newt gingrich to drop out of the race and it would like to continue with -- they would rather them not keep knocking the snot out of each other and dividing up delegates. this paradigm is shaping up where you have rick santorum basically being the defacto blast candidate of the conservative base and mitt romney being the blast candida of the mainstream republican establishment. -- the main candidate of the mainstream republican establishment. >> or e meld. rick santorum was eating and laughing. the ballroom is filling up with 500 people with space to add more. perhaps many more. the theatrics, they matter if you are out there. if you can declare a victory and sound optimistic with people cheering in the background. we had that awesome moment at the newt gingrich rally. >> i remember it was basically over within 15 minutes. it is a real sign of where they think the races. rick santorum has three victories on one night. that is why he essentially replaced newt gingrich as the main conservative alternative. there is seen as room for only one. realistically they are both in the race. i think we can agree they are splitting the vote. newt gingrich had his moment after south carolina and he failed in florida. he did not manage to take what he did in south carolina and move it forward. >> 83% of gop voters in mississippi identified themselves as evangelicals -- the most in any state in this cycle or 2008. 32% of them voted for mitt romney. i made a mistake in past programs crediting him with writing the almanac for american politics. it turns out i think michael barone wrote it. you edited it. we all know the editing is where the magic gets done anyways. walk us through the states and tell viewers understand mississippi and alabama, the region and what we should expect as a result starts to roll in. >> the thing to keep in mind is it is still early. i know everybody is anxious. we still have under 1% of the vote and. people need to keep in mind that exit polls are not -- they do not always correlate with what the results are. oftentimes people run away from exit pollsters. we are hearing from people outside and the e-mails we are getting from outside sources, it does not necessarily mean that that is what is going to happen in terms of who will win the states. what we are seeing from the exit polls is what we know a little bit already about the states. there are high levels of born- again evangelical voters, much higher than the rest of the country. they have extremely high percentages compare to the rest of the country. we know that will be a heavy component of the republican vote tonight. we know the numbers might be in the 80's from the exit polls, that is what we saw in 2008 about what you would expect. that is down the line. i think both states are a little different in the sense that -- it is hard to prove, but the republican party is a little more establishment oriented. the only reason we are talking about mitt romney winning is because he has the support of the republican establishment up and down the line. that is very important in a state where the establishment still matters and is still very viable. i think what you are seeing the and places to look for, there are a couple of things to look at. in alabama you want to look at where the population is. that would be in the birmingham area. lots of votes coming out of jefferson county. tens of republican votes there. it is really conservative. we also want to look down in the gulf area. those are the places, they're different than republicans in the northern parts of the state. those are places that mitt romney needs to do well. i think what we need to pay attention to as the returns come and is where they are coming in and who is doing well. there are areas where rick santorum needs to do well. if he is doing well, that signals could for him. if mitt romney does well in the gulf areas, that is good for him. if he does well in the urbanized areas, if he does well in jefferson county around birmingham in particular shelby county, those are all signals he will have a good night. >> you had a lot of interesting stuff jammed into your head. a quick question, getting tons of e-mails. based on e-mails i think we have about 1.3 billion viewers today. that is up from last week. not significantly, but up on the last. do reporters even understand cultural conservatism? put aside the bias, do they actually understand cultural conservatism what they believe as opposed to caricaturing their beliefs? what i do not think so at all. i think that is a major flaw in political reporting. think of all the reporters that we know in washington, d.c. it is not a joke that reporters the rest of the country as flyover country. the fatal flaw in many cases with the way we do reporting, particularly out of new york and washington. folks do not get out there and the voters and go to the counties and understand the distinctions. if you go to enough state capitals, you understand they are their own unique environments. they're all different in their own ways. every state still retains its own unique capital culture and its own distinct ways of doing things. you have two conservative southern states that are different in various ways. the republican parties are different. where the votes are coming from are different. those two states are different in georgia or oklahoma. you might think on the surface they are the sand, but they are not. take a state like massachusetts. take a look at the republican party in massachusetts and in georgia, they are on different planets. in massachusetts only 20% are born again while in georgia it is probably flipped. every state is different. one big problem have writing about politics is not enough reporters get out there and familiarize themselves with the culture. >> thank you, charlie. we will get back with you later in the evening. right now we have joe williams, the most versatile guy in the political newsroom. -- politico newsroom. his day job is covering president obama and the obama administration. he has been watching what they are saying on tv. what is obama doing tonight and how you think the obama campaign will react to the results? >> tonight he is at a basketball .amp having a boy's night out he is trying to project the image he is not worried about this at all. the south is pretty much wiped out for democrats. lbj knew what he was saying when he said he would lose the south for a generation by signing the civil rights act. we are not worried about the republicans. they can do get out as long as the 12. we're going to kick back and enjoy ourselves. >> when they look at the map this year versus 2008, are there southern states where they think they can buy successfully? do they see this as a reachable -- do they see this as a regional campaign? >> to charlie's point, there are different areas of the south. i grew up in tennessee and in georgia and parts. that is really different that alabama or mississippi which is considered the heart of dixie. the state's he thinks he can compete are the ones we saw last cycle. north carolina, virginia could trend their way. north carolina is a big electorial price and that is the southern divide are looking at. anything below north carolina if we are talking south carolina or georgia or alabama or mississippi with the possible exception of florida, florida is a distant part of the south. the north part of the state is more so than in the southern part. the corridor ride around the middle of the region. florida is a different story altogether. those states where he thinks he can play, it is no accident he chose north carolina for the convention. those are the areas he expects to hone in on and do well. that is why tonight does not matter. >> the -- describe the mood of the obama campaign right now. are they aware of their vulnerabilities? >> yes. all of the above. they are very confident -- a lot more than they were six months ago, even at the end of last year when things started to turn it around for them. they are feeling like they can compete. the one worry that they have is money. he saw it a couple of weeks ago when nancy pelosi came to them asking for $30 million and got turned away. the president is expecting this to be a long war of attrition. even though he is burning for cash right now, he has friends with deep pockets on the sideline this is the war read as many checks as the need to. you also notice in recent primaries, newt gingrich has eased off his criticism. that is due in part because someone said, coolly. we want to have a guy come in strong. i want to promote who ever the gop nomination is. >> we do not have the fancy breaking news thing. breaking news -- rick santorum spokesperson said she believes after tuesday that it will be a two man race and then newt gingrich should get out of the race and make it officially two. i think this will be the line. you will hear this from the rick santorum campaign. it is a little presumptuous. it is obviously very self- serving saying get out of here so i can take those votes and be mitt romney. i do not think you're going to hear it just from rick santorum. two christian leaders to run the country -- to other conservatives to do not want him to get the nomination, do they stand up? you start to see a trickle of that in the last couple of days. do you think a trickle will become a gush? >> i do. one of the most interesting voices we have not heard from in the past week or two has been the -- david from citizens united. he is close to them and traveled with the couple. he talked about the need for conservatives to be solid and lockstep. he has not said what he thinks newt gingrich will do. it will be interesting to see what he thinks. it will be interesting to see what evangelical leaders who are backing newt gingrich thing, the people who left that meeting in texas thing. there is a feeling of unhappiness. they feel they are getting muscle. i think you are responsible for the race you run. i think he will see it is 8 now or never moment. >> when you watch the coverage tomorrow, but to the conservative media outlets. good to redstate.com, go to national review. find out what they are saying. last time there was whispers of it is time to make this a two man race. those could easily become shouts. there is an organized -- i do not think it is organized but it is and effective organ in the conservative media where everybody gets behind a concept. >> to the point about looking for a two man rests on the republican side, that is the that the obama campaign monster here. it eliminates a distraction from the gop race, but it presents mitt romney with a bit of a problem. he will have to start figuring out what to do with the religious and conservative conservatives who want to back rick santorum. the two man race will figure retable factor into a little bit of their hands. >> we have seen folks saying this should be a two man race and people saying rick santorum has really harmed himself. he has put himself into a bad position by talking about social issues and talking about contraception. is hard to erase that once it is out there. i think that has been a real problem for a lot of conservative pundits, a lot of conservatives leaders. >> if it does become a two man race, do you expect to see that talk dial backup to present a clear contrast with mitt romney? >> i think, yes, but with a caveat -- you have to run a better effort. it is not enough to tell the media it is their fault and they are constantly trying to trap me. even his own wife said, i thought the vomiting comment about kennedy was a mistake. i thought talking about contraception was a mistake. it cannot always be somebody else's fall. one of the interesting thing that we talked about, rick santorum and his supporters have been panning conservative media. are very angry at fox news. rick santorum was a fox news contributor until early last year. in 2011 he had a contract suspended because he was running for president. rupert murdoch on his twitter feet has praised rick santorum. i do nothing mitt romney supporters would argue that fox is in the tank for mitt romney. that is one of the more interesting things to see as well. it will be interesting to see if he is hitting the conservative media. the media does not like to be hit that much. >> lots of fun buzz online about president obama taking prime minister david cameron to a game in ohio where he wanted to show the american heartland. it happens to be a swing state. lots of people online poking fun at him. i encourage people to please get on the twitters, hit us that politico live. we always invite a lot of push that. you can e-mail me. i am getting an absurd number of e-mails. live@politico.com. i will try to read some of those on air. to bring everybody back into the state of play, alabama and mississippi, polls closed about one hour ago. neither state has been called. both appear to be too close to call. we do not know at what point we will get indication on who is up and who is down. we assume sooner rather than later, but the results are coming in slowly. for those of you that are watching, this is being aired nationally on c-span. we appreciate c-span's support of the program. locally on news channel 8. we have a fabulous iphone and ipad app. the streaming quality is fantastic. we have patrick, gavin in our media room where he is monitoring every other show. give it to me. >> keep your eyes here. you were just talking about fox news. if you turn over to fox news now, not that we encourage you to leave politico.com or cspan or 8, but they are not doing full on election coverage at this moment. that could be because they are not as much political junkies as we are and they will wait until serious numbers come in, but when you talk about how much enthusiasm there is for the rest, the fact that fox news has not turned completely over to it is telling. msnbc a little bit. cnn is putting all hands on that. they are doing some major election coverage. a couple of interesting things to point out. one thing that we are getting is the exit poll. the top three candidates are splitting the white born-again vote in that state. in alabama, rick santorum does have a slight lead over that period birmingham news has to weeded out a tweet -- birmingham news has tweeted out a tweet. he said he feels good, he is a little concerned about low turnout and what that could mean. that will be one of the big stories of tonight. he is taking a wait-and-see approach. we are seeing a lot of tweets from you. we are worldwide. we have christie winters from germany. michael from warsaw. michael from sweden. we would like to have more diversity and get a round world. thank you for tuning in. and we have one guy from dublin, and sarah who wants to know why we haven't started drinking beer yet. >> i love that we are global. mike does everything with great drama. he sent me a bulletin, a republican official familiar with the mississippi town says it is possible newt gingrich comes in third in both states. the early counting suggests there could be a third-place finish. at 9:00 we have nothing else to offer you except for fear and speculation and a fantastic crew appeared. joe williams is with us. maggie covers politics and has a blog. if you do not read it every day, you are nuts. it is loaded with news and is fabulous. both have a screw loose and are always working and reporting. they will keep you well fed. >> it is one of the ways. >> she even came from new york on a train probably to join us today. >> was part of all is coming from new york on a train. >> i am a really bad fire. anytime i can take the train i am much happier. >> will get jonathan martin from downstairs. i want to get back into southern politics. walk us through the obama campaign. what are they doing now? what is a campaign that does not have a contested primary due in march of an election year? >> there are two things. one is infrastructure building. fine to the organization. recently they have been reconnecting with a lot of volunteers they had in 2008. the second thing they do is raise money and try to get a lot of it. i think we saw obama have some three or four dozen fund- raisers. every other night when he is going somewhere on the campaign, he stopped somewhere to raise money. so far that has been going well. they have a lot of cash in the coffers, but they will need even more. especially since their super pac has been lagging in fund-raising compared to what the republicans jumping taking in. >>tom in australia just e-mail me saying -- is it too early in the cycle to take romney versus obama poll's seriously? yes. but we will probably write 300 stores between now and then. we need you to click on them. that results in revenue and we can keep the show going. we are going to take two deep inside the news room to hear what our reporters are working on. how you deal with the fact it is 9:00. people are grumpy. people have eaten that awful pizza and they are writing. >> we have some people -- read santorum's spokesperson was on cnn. a drum beat you will hear endlessly over the next few days, it is time for newt gingrich to get out. let's make this a two-man race. she said newt gingrich should absolutely step out. she says, if he cannot win one of these two states, it is time for him to go back and live in georgia or virginia or whatever state he claims these days. it is time for him to go home. rick santorum is desperate to turn this into a two-person race. >> on the analysis, what people through how weak and coverage. -- walk people through how we do coverage. how do we walk the line without injecting too much of our personal opinion into this? i would never do. you might. >> it is a really fine line. one of the cool things about politico is we do push the line a little bit. i know it makes people in traditional journalism uncomfortable. we assume readers come to us because they are as big political junkies as we are. the trust us to know what we are talking about. we back that up with reporting. what jonathan martin will write tomorrow on our website, we back it up with reporting. we try to talk to people on the ground with the campaigns. people down with mint and the barbers in mississippi. we try to bring readers something that explains what is going on, but grounded in the reporting period that is the difference. it is a fine line. i say to reporters all the time, pick a horse and ride it. make it interesting. make it readable. put something out there and back up with reporting. that is what makes a successful story at politico. >> we had to make sure we figured out we had a character who looks exactly like an editor in a newsroom, you would be the guy. >> a couple of things we are getting. for one thing, we have a preview of what we can expect former senator santorum to say in his remarks tonight. he is going to say, again, we have been outspent, we're scrapping, we are the underdog and we are pushing hard and fast. he will portray himself as an insurgent. we heard else to words of the santorum campaign calling on gingrich to get out. you will not hear that from the mitt romney campaign. there is to be total silence on this question from the mitt romney campaign for an intentional reason. they view him as a proud man. the one hand to come to the conclusion himself. -- they want him to come to this conclusion himself. very deliberate strategic of it by mitt romney in the coming days where he will focus on obama. he will try to marginalize rick santorum. they're not even thinking about newt gingrich anymore, especially with a possibility that he comes in third in two places. mississippi officials looking at the numbers say that it is not looking good. it could happen that way. we are going to see mitt romney become much tougher on president obama in the coming days. this shows you how carefully campaigns calibrate everything. as part of sending a message to their republican base where they need help, they will be tough, governor mitt romney has been saying they need to replace president obama. in coming days, look for him to say that they are going to defeat president obama. that is a way for him to toughen up. >> i want you to talk about this idea of giving newt gingrich space. the idea he is a proud man. i think we saw george bush did not want to push john kerry out of the race when there was talk of election night the might to a recount. in 2008, the obama campaign was mindful of letting hillary clinton have her space to get out of the reason to time. -- out of the race in due time. they have to calculate what is going to work best for easing his path out of the race without putting him on the spot. >> can we show the viewers what craig has on four different -- why do you need for different kinds of gum? >> people come to my desk for gum, and that is what it is. >> they are trying to read the psychology of newt gingrich. they would love for it to be easier. newt gingrich after looking like he could finish first in both places finishes third in both places, i think even newt gingrich will get the message. >> do you think so? he has talked about staying with this until the end? it seems clear he does nothing much for mitt romney. i am not sure if he thinks much for rick santorum either. you think reality sinks and at some point? >> he needs to be thinking about, what is the best way for me to get my message across? he wants to remain a credible muscular figure in the republican party. by getting on that, you can get something from the candidates. if you go to mitt romney, he can get something at the convention for looking like a presidential nominee. those conversations definitely occur between these campaigns. are there formal alliances between the campaigns? there is a lot of speculation about what goes on between mitt romney and ron paul. all of these people are friends. they have worked together on other campaigns. even if the campaigns are not formally talking, there are definitely in formal lines of communication. thank you for letting me crash craig cam. i am going to have some gum. >> these are people. they have the feelings and emotions and pride and all of those different -- i am good. thank you. >> when i see the two of you, i think of a hallmark card. it makes me a little weepy. i in kicking you off now. i do want to give our watchers and listeners rigid people are getting us on c-span radio and some other while technology -- people are getting us on c-span and other wild technology, with 5% reporting, mitt romney 30%, newt 28.5%, in wisconsin the called a close. >> you are having people like henry barber who is the nephew of haley barbour. they are treating, it would be a long night. mitt romney needs to run strong. you have a little more insight into this. what is interesting for now, the vote is coming in slowly. it is coming in a bit faster in mississippi. >> we are going to go to ginger before that i need to say hello to laura jordon in florida, and jeff jones of the american eagles. good luck. newt gingrich, we just had mike allen tell us he is hearing from officials in mississippi that newt gingrich could finish third in both states. are you hearing that from the newt gingrich people? >> they just make a pass through to the ballroom. his spokesman was joking with reporters and teasing them. laughing about his new hair cut he got this afternoon. a lot with his chief of staff who is the key factor campaign manager. they came through and were not giving signs of defeat. he said it gingrich is going to chicago in the morning and they will keep pressing on. if they were surprisingly happy. >> the think that was real happiness or was that some smiling through tears? i understand this a they will keep going. but the you get the sense the veneer is cracking? what i do have a sense a little bit it is starting to crack. we have seen happiness might have been happy at the prospect of being able to sleep a whole mine in the near future. they continue to put on a front that they will keep going. as we were talking earlier, it is time. they will go to chicago and then they plan to go to new orleans, a city he lived in and had an affinity for. if the numbers we see are as bad as they are and if he decides to call it quits at this point, i do not think we will see it tonight from him. if it happens it will be a little further down the road. >> described the scene there a bit. i am looking at a rather empty room behind you. >> the door is open -- the doors open more than an hour ago. they just articling music. it is a sad crowd. somebody counted 35 if you minutes ago. -- they just started playing the music. is pretty empty here at the newt gingrich party. they scheduled a party along with the alabama gop returns. it was not even just there even, and it does not look like they will come close to filling this ballroom. there are more people here for a conference then people seeing him give a speech that night. >> we have an e-mail that said, i just spoke with a spokeswoman for rick santorum. the campaign is not explicitly calling on newt gingrich to get out of the race. she said her comments echoed what rick santorum had been saying recently. it would be great for him if everybody gets out of the race. >> one thing we did not talk about before with ken vogel, one of the problems for newt gingrich going forward is, i cannot imagine him being continue to be funded at the same rate. >> how much total today? >> total of about $40 million from his family. >> on the show recall that one? >> the no sugar daddy. >> it is the whole family. >> a joint account? what's a think they are using separate accounts. -- >> i think they are using separate accounts. i cannot see him continuing to fund a new gingrich. their close friends. there is no path. >> it will be interesting if newt gingrich does come in third. that is a big if. i think there is the possibility he could do better than that. we are working on exit polls in the very early returns. the two pieces of data that stuck out to me from exit polling, the first one from mississippi. a mitt romney person pointed this out to meet. mitt romney is tied with rick santorum among the rural voters. that says a lot. that means mitt romney really does have a chance to win mississippi. >> explain that. what's there are not a lot of votes in the rural areas. if he is tying, that is as good as it will do in la rue mississippi. the votes in mississippi and about half a dozen counties, they are on the coast, three counties around jackson, and of north near memphis, and over by columbus, a few votes. in both states, mississippi and alabama, the exit data among married women, if newt gingrich loses both of these states, here is why. he has a terrible gender gap among married women in alabama, he was behind santorum and mitt romney by 20 points. it was closer in mississippi by about 10 points. if you cannot win married woman in a republican primary in the deep south -- >> we attribute that to the fact that he is divorced and cheated on wives? what i think that is a huge part of it. >> the 2 by 4 to the head is something that i think more oriented toward male voters. there is no question his personal baggage -- i spoke with trent lott about this last week. he said newt gingrich is going to have problems down here with women. that is the backbone of the party down here. >> in south carolina, there was not -- >> he did better among men. >> it was not like this. that was right around the time that his wife spoke horror stories about him. >> an initial sympathy toward the store, but long term rift because of the facts underlying the story. that is not unlike we saw with herman cain where you circle the wagons and push back against the media for reporting the facts, ultimately the fax catch up and undermine him. >> please continue to hit us on twitter at politico live. >> let's do it right now. >> you can also e-mail me at live@politico.com./ i want to hear from you. also if you are in american samoa or hawaii, hit us too. you can see these grow on tv, we are starting to scroll the results because they are coming in. online you can go to our web site and break down county by county. 12% of precincts reporting, it cannot be any closer. probably a late night. for those of you who joined us last time, we could only use this studio until about 10:00. if it looks like it is still close and we fill the demand is out there -- i can fill the demand is out there, we can move downstairs into an amazing -- we will shoot down there and be down there until midnight or whenever we need to do until they kicked us out. please stick with us. again, thank you to c-span for carrying this nationally. mississippi is too close. you are reading your e-mail right now which is what you do all the time, what are you hearing from the mitt romney people and from the newt gingrich folks? anything you can read as far as body language? anything? >> the mitt romney people think mississippi looks really promising. they think they are going to lose alabama by a few points to rick santorum. >> the believe that? -- do you believe that? >> i think there is a case to be made that could be the case. let's let the votes be counted and see what actually happens. we talk so much going into south carolina -- some even wrote stories about this that did not prove to be true. mitt romney was going to benefit from rick santorum and newt gingrich and dividing the right. that would give him the path for a plurality win. newt gingrich caught fire in the last week with two debates. he wins by 13 and the entire premise is gone. it seems like we could finally see what we all thought was going to happen in south carolina happening, the right divides and gives mitt romney a path to get 31% and win in a big southern state. >> we're going to see what mike was talking about before. we see the mitt romney pivoting and making the case that he is still the likely nominee. nobody can catch up and they are not going to be rude about newt gingrich. the reason is not about letting him having his own time as great in my were suggesting, it is also because he helps him. >> we have millions of fact checkers up there. he said please remind people he is the british prime minister. who ever screw that up, shame on you. back to the action. abouttalk a little bit the bush world. there is not a lot of talk about george w. bush in this campaign. the people around george bush, all the people who worked for him, the you get a sense that the bush world wants mitt romney? >> i think rather him than rick santorum. karl rove has said some favorable things about him. he made pretty clear in a recent column, whether it was last week for two weeks ago that he does not see a mathematical path for rick santorum. he was making the same point that the mitt romney people made. >> has he endorsed -- >> , he is openly for mitt romney. karl rove is not. like a lot of republicans, he thinks he ultimately is going to be the nominee. we spoke about this earlier. the bush people, they are not terribly excited about mitt romney, but they think he is the only in the field can run a serious campaign and make this fall election about barack obama, not about the flaws of the republican nominee. there are a lot of republicans who are still skeptical -- i was e mailing with an old friend who was a loyal republican. he still does not think they can beat president obama this fall. the party is not going to be able to compete with the kind of campaign president obama can put together. demographically, the country is moving away from the party. >> why is there so little talk about the tea party these days. the obsession we had one year ago, there does not seem to be as much chatter about the tea party. is it still as strong today -- we can debate all my what it actually means and how you describe it. is it still as vibrant and as effective and as influential today as it was, even in the 2010 elections where they were the decider in who would win the republican nomination and all the key senate races, often in defiance. >> i think what the tea party proved it was very good at was a very good point that you just made, low skill organizing, smaller scale organizing. they have not coalesced in a real way along the lines of a presidential candidate. where i think you see them having the most impact is still on the house on legislation. i do not think you are seeing them have a huge effect so far in the presidential race because they have remained cut. they could as we get closer to have a get more coalesced field around one candidate. >> i am getting tons of e-mail on people trying to argue on the bias front. for conservatives a particular, you could take a look at apiece on our site titled "could you imagine if bush had..." that walks through all the things that obama has to deal with. i hate to interrupt you. >> more personal attacks. i will go over there and overthrow the chair in a minute if you do not quit talking. the question was about the tea party. i think i heard about them. who are they going to knock off? what are they going to play? is it going to be richard lugar? is it going to be a member of the house? longtime chairman of the house and services committee. he is facing a primary today. i think we will see the strength of the tea party movement there. >> to cut argue they have already helped get olympia snowe out of there. one reason she is not running again is because the politics has changed. the tea party movement has given force and power to conservatives in the way it did not have before. you can see it with senator lugar who has always been a mild mannered man who has had to become more conservative on issues because he knows the challenge from the right will be ferocious. we have harris in the newsroom. we are coming live from the mobile cave. >> was jonathan still auditioning to become the romney campaign spokesperson? >> i got elbows from the left and right. >> he was predicting a two state suite. >> i do not think i was ever predicting any sort. >> weigh in on the debate we were having about the tea party. is the tea party as vibrant today as it was one year ago? >> no, it is not. i would throw him a bouquet now and show him a story i think he was the first to right. when we talk about the tea party, look at who they are. look at the demographically and what they believe. they are a lot like normal republicans. they tend to be older than average. they tend to be white male. they hear a lot about spending. that is the profile of the classic republican party voters for the past two generations or so. it is not at the tea party was made up, but a lot of the speculation about their influence made them seem as if they were a unique phenomenon. they are just especially energized republicans. we make a mistake if we try to be the presidential election in the primary process through a tea party lines. >> let's change the debate slightly and argue this. what we have seen in the republican party is a weakening of the establishment. i hearken back to 2010 where you had almost in every competitive senate race the anti- establishment candidate that won the election of the established candid. you have an election dominated by the grass roots. this year it seems like the establishment guy for a lack of a better term is doing better than the anti-establishment guy. what should we make of this? is the establishment part of the republican party weaker than it would have been a couple of years ago? >> there is no question that it is. i do not think the fact that mitt romney is lobbying or slouching or limping toward the nomination is an impressive show of confidence by him or shows the power of the establishment wing it, it is the lack of viable alternatives among the anti establishment candidates. this is not an ideological split as we have seen in both parties, particular republican party used to have it. it is a conservative party called the way across the board. it is more of a stylistic difference. the so-called establishment republicans, they do want to work within the system toward the conservative gulf. the anti-establishment people are contemptuous of the system, almost as contemptuous of elites and their own party as they would be liberal elites in the democratic party. the rage is almost equally directed. it is more about approach. you burn the house down are try to reconstruct the house? >> the biggest divide in terms of policy was not over an actual policy, objective or issue, it was about tarp, the bailout of the banks in 2008. it was not about abortion rights for gay rights or marginal tax rates or education, it was more about this issue in the moment. it is harder to think of significant breaks when it comes to issues and the gop coalition. i am trying to think -- it is not as clear. >> i would think there would be sound. most established republicans would say, if you're talking to them privately, let's stop arguing about a marriage. it is time to move on. that is dick cheney's public view, a privately it is probably held by a majority of the leads. -- elites. some people would say this is an issue to fight on. the establishment part of the party is fine keeping with the issues. >> keep talking to some extent that you have to, but make them on the margin. >> but the viewpoints are the same. >> can you stand by for one second. we have some news. gavin better deliver. he is tracking all of the other cable stations that you do not need to watch because you are watching this. >> believe it or not i do have some days. much of the chatter online -- i do not have huge results. if you are very into politics on a micro level and are not interested in being surprised, there are some results. greg harper has won the gop nomination in mississippi. we also have stephen from mississippi winning the nomination in his district. some results, unsurprising and unexciting as they may be. a couple of other things -- we know president obama is watching a game in ohio. mitt romney today telling people that he is not going to fill out a ncaa bracket because he doesn't have time. kind of day lame move i think. tracking the drudge report is kind of a behind closed doors secure for a lot of people. how he hasa look at covered this evening. he had a glorious picture at 6:00 of mitt romney that said "son of the south" -- question mark. now, then it went to "fight for the south" putting if you go to the drudge report right now "fight for the south" and the picture is for rick santorum. a lot of people thought that matt drudge had been behind romney in some subtle ways but right now at least the momentum seems to be going to rick santorum. >> we're going to have our reporters with rick santorum. look at the difference here between newt's area where he'll do his speech ep and where santorum is. santorum has hundreds of people packed in. there are more people onset right now on this show than there are at newt gingrich's event. i'm not a political scientist but that's bad news, right? why is that? ginger, are you with us? we have a reporter in santorum in lafayette, louisiana. tell us what's happening. >> i'm getting word from the santorum campaign that they were expecting a very late night. people here are excited that this race has been tight here and it looks like santorum could come out on top in one and maybe even two of these states. i was chatting with a santorum spokeswoman and she said the campaign is not calling on newt gingrich to leave the race. but that is a decision that should be made by the candidate. obviously, they want everybody out of the race because they want to be the nominee. that's the word here on the ground in louisiana. >> excellent. the minute you hear anything from his advisors, anything about when he might speak, please hit me with an email. we're going back to john harris, in the politico newsroom. downstairs is where the politico newsroom in. harris is downstairs. he threw his jacket off, he's getting miked up. john, what do you make of the night? step back a little bit and think about the results as they pour in. >> it's live tv in action. our close partner on radio is supposed to have me on. how about i talk to them now and i'll come right back and share these pearls of wisdom with you. >> the new radio station in d.c., it rocks. you get all your updates there. if you want to listen to harris while you listen to us. >> 23% reporting in mississippi. we have 33.3% santorum. 31.1% gingrich. and romney 29.8%. alabama, santorum, 34%. gingrich. 39.6% and romney, 25%. ron paul is sort of a nonfactor in both. >> i was going to dive in and look at what's happening. there are no votes yet from jackson county, which is going to be a strong romney place down on the coast. trent lott's hometown, home of the shipyard. further up around jackson. city suburbs, romney doing pretty well in suburban rankin county, narrow lie leading -- narrowly leading gingrich with about 50% of the vote in heinze county, only 52% of the vote in but romney is rolling there. i'm curious as to what more we're going to get from the coast, from the jackson area and then up north, i'm looking at desoto county, outside of memphis. 30% of the vote in there and actually santorum is beating romney there by about seven points. if romney is going to pull this out he's going to need to get some really nice numbers out of jackson and the coast. >> we have 1.2 billion people watching us globally right now. >> down from 1.3. >> people are getting tired. i want to throw a shout out to our true political junkies. hit me live at politico.com or on twitter and we'll get someone to answer because i won't have the answer for you. >> i was going to do a fast map scan of alabama. >> do it. >> if that is what our readers want. our listeners, our viewers. so the big headline i think from alabama so far is that there are not many votes in >> i think that is a big headline. is it too soon to say -- >> it is too soon to say. only time will tell in alabama. >> it's going to come down to turnout. >> are the poll accounts available are going the be the ones on election night. keep an eye on birmingham. if romney has any chance to win he's going to need to really do well there. 20% in romney is narrowly beating santorum there. he's going to need to step that up. again, nothing yet from next door baldwin county. just from the east across the bay from mobile, so we're going to have to wait on that. >> we were talking about the obama campaign. jim mussina, the obama campaign manager showed president obama's numbers taking a bit of a dive. he said if the general election were held today, president obama would lose to roll any. many other polls put the president on top. but all point to a rice that will be tighter than you think. they want $3 or more on their bad poll numbers. so there you go. >> there you have it. $3 and a cloud of dust. harris is back in the newsroom. he's ready to roll. you're still scratching your arm. >> i missed it because of you guys. thanks a lot. 9:50 to -- so people in the washington area will put you guys on mute and listen to me on top. >> we were talking about the state of the republican party. you've covered democrats for a long time and have a good feel for the coalitions that make up the party and the trajectory of the party. >> i know, i don't have that many republican sources, right? >> you're paranoid. but give us a sense of the strength of the democratic party right now and in particular president obama's standing inside of the party. because i think conservatives are so down on obama they sometimes don't even realize how do you know some of the liberal groups are on president obama who they don't feel has been liberal enough. >> i think if you put a lot of democrats on truth serum they would speak pretty honestly, not that they're not hoping that president obama wins a second term. they are hoping that and recognize the alternative would be far worse for the things they believe in. but they were enjoying in 2011 seeing him be hazed. they didn't want him to coast to re-election and still don't. different gruchese. the leaders on capitol hill think the obama west wing has been so insular, too worried about their own interests and not theirs. you take civil right leaders. they feel obama doesn't show enough deference to the fact he rode in on other people's shoulders. anti-war activists had been hoping that he would have an even more vigorous drawdown than he's had. plenty of people in the democratic coalition are not wild about barack obama, even though they're going to vote for him. i do think obama has learned something, the same thing bill clinton learned over time which, is there will always be people within your own party who will whine. the only thing they really respect is power. if obama's approval ratings are good you're going to hear the volume on that whining go down. if he starts to look in trouble, you're going to have all kind of second guessers being more vocal and reporters ready to amplify any sort of critical comment. >> i promised our fellow junkies would answer. this one is an analyst in new york. has a question for maggie and j. mark. apparently the person doesn't think i can answer. we keep hearing that newt and ron paul seek to get goodies from the convention. what could they get? >> they could get good speaking spots. i think essentially newt gingrich is playing for career rehab at this point. he does not have -- >> a video about his epic career, right? >> or something. not just something you take home, one that gets played there. i think gingrich is look for respect. i think the same for paul. i think he wants acknowledgement for his movement. >> i think for newt, it would have to be some kind of tribute to the outside influence that he's had in this party for some decade now. whether that's a video or a prime-time speech or what have you, something like that you also hear chatter about potentially involvement on the platform. that's a little bit dated, though. i don't think many folks pay attention to the platform these days compared to centuries past. so i'm not sure that's going to be as relevant. for ron paul, i think it's going to be interesting whatens with rand paul. i think the way to his heart is to take care of rand paul. every convention they pick a keynote speaker, usually either an up and comer or somebody they want to spotlight. in 2004 it was zell miller for the republicans. the democrat who voted for bush over kerry. could it be rand paul this time around? >> great question. >> do you float rand paul as a vice president pick, even if you don't put him on your short list or even vet him? there are ways that this can be done to get at ron paul's heart and i think it is largely through flattering and ell vatting his son. >> -- elevating his son. >> we got a tweet from ryan o'ferguson, saying if maggie reads this at politico -- whatever it is you're drinking -- >> we have some brandy martinos now. that's sweet. >> is harris still with us? >> good. >> looking for a drink after that. >> so are we, john. >> we promise to rip back the curtain and let people inside a newsroom debate. in politico there was a piece that was posted that looked at the state of the american voter. tell people what the thesis of the story was and what the debate was internally over the headline. >> it was a story that i encouraged to be written. a lot of times stories generate from people's rants, editors' rants, my rants, your rants. things that are striking us in the news. being an editor has its compensations. alburns wrote up -- burns wrote up some of my rants. you've mentioned them already at different times on the show. the result from mississippi showing a majority of americans think that president obama might be muslim. that's not true. some of the concern about how come he doesn't do something about gas prices? the president can't really control gas prices. some of these poll results seemed stupid. and i asked alex burns to do a piece looking at the questions about whether voters are stupid and the things they say in these polls are stupid. alex warmed to the assignment. he wrote this and said yeah, that's the first thing you learn as a pollster, voters are stupid. they're expressing their opinions in a context of ignorance. you do get some results that seem stupid even have the voters themselves actually aren't stupid. anyway, he wrote this good piece. we put it up on the site. some people thought it went too far. craig gordon, who's been on the show, daniel jones, our web editor. you could tell they were uncomfortable, wow, were we pushing it too much. they didn't want the sharpest headline -- "are voters stupid," or switch to the order of the verb "voters are stupid." i think we want something a little more neutral. do voters turns issue or what do voters know or whatever? the debate was whether to go with the sharpest possible headline or a more muted one. you and i were in the same place, if you're going to say something you might as well go all in and go with the most provocative headline. i felt i won this debate in part because we did get a picture of forrest gump to accompany the story, forrest gump in this case representing the sort of ignorant voters who are saying these wacky things in polls. >> harris, i'm dying to give out your email address. c-span, all the billions of people watching. don't email me. >> jharris at --@politico.com. >> this is unbelievable we have some new numbers. if i can get off of this for a second. mississippi, 32% 7% for santorum. rom -- alabama, 14% in santorum 34.3%. gingrich. 33.9% and romney, 28 .%. >> you can always weigh in except for when we tell you you can't. >> there are some chatters -- chatter on twitter, saying seems like the exit polls may have weighed romney stronger in mississippi than the actual votes are showing. if you take biloxi on the coast, very close between romney and santorum. he's going to have to do better in the big suburb east of jackson, but it looks right now like santorum could be the man to beat in mississippi with still many votes to be counted. >> can you read this email while i give viewers a programming update? it's 9:47 right now. the polls are closed in mississippi and alabama, way too close to call. i promise that we can only use this beautiful setup here until 10:00. if you think we should keep this thing rolling, either email me, get us on politico live. i think these are very important. if that's true, we're going to pop downstairs, it will be flawless and we'll continue the conversation. i had asked earlier to also hit us with questions for our real political scientists in the room. one just came in. >> this email was about jackson county, which i was just talking about. i have a mind mail aapparently with this reader. this reader wrote the big story right now is jackson county, on the cost, the coast, where biloxi is. romney needs to do very well there. he's winning by about 200 votes there. just not what he needs coming out of the coast. he's got to do better than that to offset a lot of the more rural and conservative parts of mississippi. so it looks like, again, those exit numbers may have portrayed mitt stronger than he actually is in mississippi. this ills straits, too, how tough it is for romney with conservatives. here you have gingrich and santorum running fairly strongly in this state and he still is having a hard time winning with conservatives dividing the vote. it makes you wonder with both romney and santorum there what the split would look like. >> can you guys email your romney sources and see if they still feel confident on mississippi or if that's changing. the last time we did this show, romney's people were really confident on ohio and it turned out it was really, really close and the results came in after we were done. after midnight. they cut us off. they would not let us go. >> we were screaming, banging. i do want to say one quick thing -- this is not new. are you reading a twitter? one point i do want to make is that the expectation setting by these polls, the exit polls, the p.p.p. polls, has been staggering. what we've seen is santorum was ahead in polls last week and then he was down. and then it looked like mitt romney was going to win mississippi. he may but it's still very, very tight. if mitt romney does not win mississippi, it's going to look like a comeback for santorum. 44% reporting in mississippi. gingrich 33.1%%. alabama, 20% is in 32.6% for santorum. gingrich, 29. %, and romney, 28.2%. >> but lets give our viewers numbers-wise. santorum is about 3,000 votes ahead of romney at this point with 46% in. and in terms of his lead over gingrich, it's about 1,00 votes. >> we're not going to get all hot and heavy until we're well over 50%. the exit polls and what we're seeing now, this is going to be a late night. our viewers want us to keep it going, so if the folks in the control room can ramp up whatever we need downstairs, we will do that thank you, c-span for covering this hopefully they'll stay with us. mike allen is here. get on this >> the theme of tonight is we have seen this movie before. >> that's where you're wrong. [laughter] >> i'm not watching it anytime. i'm going back to the tapes we have. >> we have the tapes. >> let's get serious. >> the romney camp is worried about mississippi. i told you. >> a bad rerun. >> jim manley, former spokesman to the stars for democrats just emailed saying keep it going. he prefaced it by saying i hate to say it but nonetheless we're going to keep it going. >> we continue on pay-per-view. >> politico premium. >> that's correct. >> let's be serious. worry about mississippi. the mississippi numbers are not streaming in as predicted -- >> you're saying romney folks that you're talking to are more worried now than three weeks ago? just like one week ago when they were confident in ohio then they're not. >> we've seen this movie before, part one. we've seen this movie before, part two. i'm reminded of the hillary-obama race. >> hold on. we have breaking news from the control room. can you go to the tape? >> i think we'll hear about alabama first. it will be a rick santorum win. i think we'll hear about mississippi second. it will be a mitt romney win. so save the tape and we'll see. >> oh, my gosh. >> the hook. i'm getting the hook, folks. >> too good. too good. mike, i told you were going to go back to the tape. the truth is you could still be right. neither state has been called. but we do have two very close races. about seven minutes to the top of the hour. like i said. we're punchdrunk here. we're going downstairs and we're going to keep this thing going. maggie is not complaining about having to stay late tonight. >> it's only 10:00. >> please get the questions coming to live yoth politico.com and on twitter. we're responding to a ton of these. a lot of smart emails. i bet i've gotten 1,000 and almost all of them are smart, interesting. it speaks to the quality of the c-span all of a sudden. we take this stuff seriously, as you guys do. we don't take things too seriously here, but by want to keep chewing over the numbers. mike? >> we've seen this movie before. remember the obama-clinton race. when we'd get on the conference calls and they'd say well, maybe this will be settled in pennsylvania. once again, we're hearing that now april 24 might be the tie breaker. you have pennsylvania, santorum's state, new york, where romney should do great. that is the new tie breaker. >> pennsylvania, new york, connecticut and am i remembering correctly? delaware? a bunch of states that should favor romney. >> the producers keep reminding me santorum in the results so far is still leading in both states. if that were to hold that would be a huge, huge night for rick santorum. >> nbc apparently just called alabama for santorum. there's still a fair amount of the alabama vote out. >> that's the only media outlet that is calling any state for santorum. nbc usually has a very smart political team. that could be true but just so you have it, nbc is reporting that santorum has won. >> as we began the night, i said which state would have the result first? >> alabama. >> and tibs result would be -- >> rick santorum? >> i'm half right. and the romney room is worried. >> we don't know. >> who knows? this is going to be another late night. >> i'm not reading while you talk. >> i'm wreeleding while you talk. >> putting aside the results, it deflates the fact that mississippi was closer. we knew from the top of the night that the result would not be clear and that it would take a while and be slow. the roll any folks were hoping to be able to go out and say we won decisively in the most conservative state in the nation. at the at least -- least, that has been punctured. >> last week -- week we talked about this too. i think the roll any campaign has struggled with expectation settings the entire time. this is another example. i think they were doing better at this weekend. >> it's not what they do, it's what they expect. >> we've heard all day from romney supporters that they expected to win mississippi. they were feeling good about it. >> and they thought they were going to be close in alabama. >> we don't know what the final tally will be in alabama but i think jim's point about nbc and their crew covering politics are very good. obviously, it's just one outlet. we, as jim said, follow the a.p., but it's interesting. but this is clearly not the clarifying night that the roll any campaign had hoped for. >> that's the lead. not the clarifying night that the roll any campaign had hoped for. >> did you hear that? write it up. >> that's dinner. >> he's not in the mogul use office. harris, are you there? >> yes, sir. >> do you have something brilliant to say? are -- or are you hear to -- here to hear this well-choreographed conversation? >> my email proves that definitely some people are watching and they're emailing me. the whole debate we were having about whether it's fair to look at some of these poll results and include some of the eccentric findings about whoever says these things are stupid. i've had about a dozen email in the last 10 minutes. runs about maybe two out of three people saying yeah, somebody ought to say it, you guys were right toe run that story. we should highlight the fact that a lot of voters are ignorant and about 1/3 of the people really taking offense at it and in fact saying we at politico are the stupid ones and specifically the editor in chief. >> they nailed that >> juana is with us. harris, hold tight. juana, you're coming to us from lafayette, louisiana, where rick santorum is packing the room. nbc has reported that santorum has won alabama. are you hearing that from the santorum folks? >> that is correct. i saw a santorum stamp huddle with the nbc crew. they're very excited about that call. it was announced and people are talking about it here in the room. they are very excited. the buzz of the room has gotten a lot more exciting. i would expecting santorum to be speaking sooner rather than later. he's going to be on to his next destination later on tonight. >> what are they hearing about mississippi? mike allen just popped on to the set, says that mississippi seems closer than anticipated. any reason for the son -- santorum folks to feel optimistic that they might have a two-fer tonight? >> there is some very cautious, careful optimism. i think they're trying to be very careful about how they present that but they're trying to riled on a wave of optimism if nbc is correct and they've picked up alabama. i think they're trying to hang on to alabama right now, not saying a whole lot about mississippi, but i think the opinion of the santorum camp is even having this one state in the pocket puts them in a good place. they're moving on to puerto rico, illinois, and the states moving forward. >> mike, you have a question for juana? >> yes. juana, the san tournament folks are -- santorum folks have good reason to feel opt misk. we're hearing that if current trends holds, rick santorum will win mississippi. sometimes the votes come in this clusters and all jumbled up. but the votes are coming in as predicted and romney is losing statewide. did the santorum people think there was a possibility they'd have a double-header win or was a single win what they'd really been expecting or hoping? >> i think they certainly see that as a possibility but it's not something they're stressing. i think they're trying to tamp that down. if they don't talk about it, fit comes out and blows them out of the ballpark, that's obviously going to change the way the story is reported. but in the last couple of days we were traveling with santorum, there was a level of managing expectations, going from if we do well we'll become a two-man race, to yesterday, saying this race is really tightening. they're being very careful with how they lead expectations here. >> john harris has a question for you, juana. john, ask your question. >> hey, juana. i'm curious. one thing i think people ought to focus on in this race are a couple of what-ifs. two. what if the iowa vote had been counted accurately on that night so the headline was santorum wins? and then looking at tonight's races, what if newt gingrich weren't in the race? let's face it, he would be cleaning mitt romney's clock. maybe not all of the gingrich vote would go to santorum but certainly a lot more of it. we'd have a race with a totally different dynamic. how often do the santorum people make that point and are they agonized by that somewhat? if the ball had bounce add little bit differently, the complexion of the race would be totally different. >> it's interesting that you say that the last couple of days, santorum has waxed knows stall jick about his time in washington. i do think he would be looking at a completely different race had iowa been called from the get-go as well as if gingrich was not in the race. the calls are coming, getting more per haven't saying this needs to be a two-man rails. i think if gingrich doesn't make a move to get out of the race soon you're going to hear that even more forcefully. i think the talk about a two-man rails is going to become even louder and more forceful. >> just a quick question for you. i know there have been some expectations managing and sounds like they're doing it much better in santorum land. but have you sensed any frustration over predictions that santorum was going to get blown out or lose in mississippi? any irritation with the race and the way it's been covered? i've heard complaints about fox news, but more broadly? >> it's not just the fox thing. rick santorum does public to use the national media as a bit of a punching bag. but i think there is some concern that the way these things are reported as altering the narrative of the race and i think that's been very palpable. so i think that definitely is a concern of yours you hit right on the head. >> keep at is, wan ah -- juana. one of the great things about this job is people like juana who has been with us a couple of years. so awesome and verse tim. we have a couple of minutes more in the nice studio. we're going to go to the studio downstairs in a couple of minutes. the results are in this mississippi and alabama. neither state has been officially called. nbc has called alabama for rick santorum. we have not verified that, a.p. has not verified that. that is where the trends are headed. mississippi looks like it's going to be up in the air for a while. the telecast is being broadcast nationally on c-span, which i understand is staying with us. globally -- just got another one from tokyo. there are three different site in alabama and mississippi that are live streaming it. thank you for doing that. i live the participation from those two states in particular. i've probably gotten 100 emails from mississippi and alabama. all of them are smart and thoughtful. please push back on anything you hear or if you have questions please firing them at us at politicolive, that's a hashtag on twitter. let's just -- we don't know the results, but if we have two states for santorum tonight. huge, huge, huge. he can make an argument that he's racking up states, difficult states, that he's being able to win a different region. the conservatives are around him. gingrich voters are more likely to be a santorum voter than a romney voter. that is huge. that race will go on and on. >> and while getting outspent. that's the other thing. how long is mitt romney going to regret calling these states an away game if he loses? to me this frames the argument, right? this is what rick santorum will be saying, essentially. he called these an away game. this is the base of the conservative movement, of the republican party. it's very hard to get him to leave. >> let's be realistic about the roll any effort. just a few weeks ago he thought he would come in third in both. the romney folks didn't spend money in mississippi and there's a good reason. they thought they were going to lose. it looked closer but we have a real drama developing here. if current trends hold in mississippi, rick santorum is going to win. you know, the one possibility that we did not talk about as the night began was that rick santorum would win both of these. listen to this this is why, in mississippi, increasingly people think that santorum is going to win. can you go to our home page? what's the latest count? >> 33-32 basically. >> how much%? >> 60.7. >> 60.7% of the precinct are in but 80% of the actual raw expected vote is in so we have much more of the vote from mississippi than we expected and romney is losing statewide. google results maps shows santorum performing well in the socially conservative northern part of the state, romney wing around jackson and beginning rich doing well in the southern part of the state. romney is winning the more heavily populated area but a lot of that vote is already in. >> right. this goes to jonathan's point was that he needed to score much bigger in the areas where he needed to do well. it's not in yet. this is the reverse of what we saw in ohio, where the roll any vote was still out in areas around cleveland and some of the major cities and it swung dramatically in about 45 minutes. it doesn't look like we're going to see that. >> the results are being posted on the screen in real-time throughout the night. and the david -- in the david versus goliath catalog. >> c-span's steve scully tells us santorum will be speaking in 10 minutes. >> we're going to go there. c-span will take it in its entirety. sometimes we don't air the whole thing. so c-span viewers would join us afterward. mitt romney spent $55 million. rick santorum, five. bam! he might win. >> mitt romney earlier tonight, i'm seeing this on the twilighters. he said that rick santorum is at the "desperate end of his campaign." that is going to come back to haunt him. he can't be overconfident. this is something we've talked about a lot. the contest remains very adversarial in part because there's a lot of adversity right now between santorum and mitt romney. but mitt romney has not been able to expand his support and his language remains at logger heads. when you are criticizing the person who represents essentially the conservative element of the party, it can be offensive to voters who are not with you. at a certain point does he need to do anything to reach out to these voters or would it come off as insincere? >> we've seen him try to do that at the end of his election-night speeches. but this is where you said he's tried to act like the nominee before. no victory statements out of the mitt romney campaign. one says we'll be up late night but a big thank you to everyone who voted in mississippi and alabama and their thought bubble is if they could write what they thought is there weren't enough of you but where were the rest of you? >> this is great. loving you in seoul. thank you for watching in seoul. we're huge, huge, in asia. interest in this election is obviously sbns overseas. just to give you a sense of what's going to be happening in the next couple of minutes. still waiting for an official call in alabama. mississippi looks like it's going to be a while before we know. there's another news program that's going to be filled on this set around 10:30. i'm going to babble for a while while maggie and mike go downstairs. we'll regroup instantly. it will be flawless. you don't have to quit watching and then we're going to keep going probably until midnight or until we have some clarity on these results. hit us we mails at live@politico.com. we're lighting up twitter. reaction to the show has been great and again, we welcome criticism. let it fly. critiques, ideas. i've gotten several emails from people who have experienced different technical issues or glitches. trying to figure things out so everyone can have as good an experience watching us as we have living the dream. >> on the twitter someone saying we'll name our next child jim maggie. keep going live on the politicolive. so there you have it. >> their next baby? >> jim maggie. >> jim maggie? >> sure, why not? >> there's news going on here. come here. cnn political director emails to explain why his network has not called alabama when nbc has. >> and abc just had. >> we wanted to be absolutely sure. we're in no rush. but that trend is holding new alabama and mississippi sources tell us that the trend for santorum is holding you will as well. 60% of precincts but 0% of the expected vote in. >> that's really something. apparently santorum just called in to fox news. he said on the record and sean hannity's show has been great to him but the news shows i'm told not so much. i think we're still on schedule to hear from him pretty soon. >> if you're the roll any campaign what do you say tomorrow? they're fortunate because we're not going to see governor romney for a while. governor romney flew out of kansas city today, where hevpled bandage campaigning. went to new york. for the next two days he'll be doing fundraising events in new york and connecticut. tomorrow he starts with a fundraising breakfast at a new york hotel. a fundraising lunch, a couple otherify nains -- finance meetings. they expect to raise $2 million or even more in the next two days. he gets a break of having personally answering for the result. >> he does get a break but he's also going to get a bigger crush of cameras, i think, staking out every event. i think the longer he goes without talking the more pressure there becomes. his campaign is going to have to order it. they go back to delegates mass. they knew it was going to be a long clog. they change add -- thanked the people of kansas for voting for him, even though kansas barely voted for him but then reminded that he's still ahead. i think they have to stick to that >> before we get carried away with like a segment that has a terrible result, correct me if i'm wrong about this. and that is that is santorum and gingrich campaigns have conceded that it's impossibility -- possible for them to beat romney in the math. they're saying he has a math problem too. it's a convention strategy. >> correct. you wrote about this. i wrote about this over the weekend. john was not saying that they couldn't get themselves to 1,144. but they are running a campaign to keep romney believe 1,144. that's not impossible. what they have on their side is math. she ahead. the states coming up to favor him. however, we also expected that he could do well tonight, win tonight. at a certain point he does need to win in a region that is a traditional republican stronghold. >> rick santorum could be speaking within the next five minutes. for the wizards behind the scenes, if you could get charlie lined up to do a delegate tutorial sometime in the next half-hour. i'm getting a lot of questions on why is it that some states are proportional, some aren't and what is the delegates numbers for the states? two networks have called. al bill: -- alabama for santorum. nbc and abc. we just heard from cnn that they're not ready to call alabama because there's not enough vote in and it's so close. again, at politico, we go by the associated press and we're waiting to hear from them. it does seem safe to say that it's probably santorum for alabama. now cnn has just called alabama. so we'll kale -- call it done. we'll officially declare alabama goes for santorum. >> we have 31.5% for newt beginning rich. 30.3% for mitt romney in mississippi. >> romney finishes third in mississippi? that would be a huge story. ,000 votes behind with 70% reporting. we're going to go to san is -- santorum. when we does peek speak, we'll have juana there. politico is always trying to look forward, what's next. how are they going to take these results and pivot off them? santorum is going to pivot in a big way. based on the results with 70% in this alabama looks like he could potentially get a two-for or at least a narrow loss in mississippi. he's going to come out at the conservative alternative to mitt romney. it's what a lot of conservatives want, what they've been dreaming about. it's what haunts the mitt romney campaign. a divided field is the reason he's the front-runner today because there's not been that coalescing as -- that we've been talking about. we do have juana summers with us in lafayette, lounges, where rick santorum is getting ready to speak. he's in louisiana because louisiana votes next week. a.p. just called alabama for santorum. tell us what's happening, when we expect to hear from rick santorum and what we expect to hear from him. >> we keep being told that he'll speak very shortly. i would expect that you'll hear from rick santorum, but this is another statement that shows that he is the only candidate in this race who can win in all areas of the country. that means in the south and all across the country. the geographical argument is one he's been making very strongly as he counters newt gingrich. rick santorum talked about how here in alabama and mississippi he's going into his backyard. >> give us a little more of the at feericks in the room. size of the room, the -- atmosphere in the room. the size of the room, what is the message he's trying to convey? >> absolutely. i don't know if you can hear behind me but there's someone who does not appear to be affiliated with the campaign. an average joe riling up the crowd. there are a couple of hundred people here. at times chanting for rick and at times singing "god bless america." this is the hilton here, a little bit smaller venue than we've seen for santorum. there are a couple hundred people here. it's still a pretty packed room. he'll be speaking at a podium in front of a made for america banner. this is a low key setting for him but a room that has a ton of energy in it. >> juana, you'll be happy to know that gary just emailed, said your coverage tonight is awesome, especially the lovely lady on santorum. so it could be a relative or could be a very satisfied politico live consumer. do you have a question? >> no, i have news. steve scully tells us that the gingrich campaign plans for him to come out in nine minutes at 10:30 eastern, 9:30 central. former speaker gingrich is going to come out, warm up his crowd and tell them the vote is coming in. we also expect santorum to speak shortly so we may have a split screen night. >> we had this happen last week too. >> romney came out and stemmed on the santorum speech. with with -- >> we won't be seeing that tonight. but this is managing your onus cycle. if santorum hangs on and does win. we've gone through what a bad night it is for mitt romney but it's not a good night for gingrich either. >> we have a lot of calls from people saying that fox news is being much more bullish on newt gingrich's prospects, particularly in mississippi. he is in second place right now. clearly could win mississippi. mitt romney is down 5,000 votes with 75% reporting. boy, if he finishes third in mississippi, that's not good. >> no, and that's actually a fair point. to the extent that this is all expectations, if gingrich has a close second to santorum then will you hear from both sides these are conservative areas, they split. we outnumbered romney heavily and then gingrich will use that as an excuse, i think, to resist calls to get out. it's a pretty astonishing split, at least here in mississippi be 70% in. it's essentially a three-way tie. they're separated by 1,800, 2,000 votes, but this is a very close election. >> something we've chatted about. it would be a good story. the polls this cycle have been incredibly accurate. public policy polling have said this was a three-way tie and there we are. >> that's sort of why you do have to wonder, and maybe you have better insight into this. the roll any campaign was bullish on mississippi all day. they were, their surrogates were. why was that? >> a big piece of it was all the encourse -- endorsements they got there. that romney's establishment appeal was kicking in there too. a big reason they were confident, the number one reason they were very confident about mississippi is the mississippi governor was telling them that it looked good. >> you know, they have the endorsement of the south carolina governor. that didn't work. we've seen a cycle of people with big-name endorsements and it has not done much. >> i i have to break in here, guys. i promised some amazing flexibility and movement. the two of you are going to go downstairs while i continue the conversation. >> it's not just that they didn't -- it's that they didn't have the right intel. >> that's exactly right. >> you guys pick it up downstairs. i think we still have juana summers with us. if you're there, set the scene. any indication of when santorum is coming in and are they aware that gingrich might try to have his speech collide with the santorum speech? >> i was looking around behind me and there is a little bit of a lack of santorum staffers out here. i'm hearing behind me that santorum should be speaking within minutes, so it looks like we might have dueling speeches tonight. could be a -- split screen for us. >> there's no doubt that santorum wants the stage right now. he wants to have a national audience listen to him and his pitch. and you know his pitch is going to be it is time to coalesce around me as the conservative alternative. in my country, they call that the base and he's got the base and he's going to want newt gingrich out whether he says it explicitly or not. >> that is absolutely going to be the message and one of the interesting stories will be who seizes this moment better. now as it looks like we'll have gingrich and santorum speaking at the same time as we still have mississippi hanging in the balance. >> interesting fact from our producer. in alabama and in mississippi, mitt romney is running in third place. just to put this in perspective, at the beginning of the night, romney's people thought they could win both states. as of right now, with alabama call and would mississippi too close to call, mitt romney is running in third place. all three gentlemen are in the running in both states but mitt romney is in third place. i'll tell you right now what the headline realize tomorrow if that's the case -- terrible night for mitt romney unless things change between now and the last 25% of votes that are going to trickle in this mississippi. what else are you hearing from the santorum advisors on what's next? what states will they go to? >> the next couple of days are going to involve puerto rico tomorrow and thursday then heading into illinois where they feel they can do well, despite the fact that he doesn't have the ability to pick up delegates in some of the cank congressional drifpblgts it's the same problem that plagued the santorum campaign in ohio. they've charted out a path that goes, i believe, into april and they feel like this map is going to be very, very kind to them and allow them to catch up in the delegate math category, where mitt romney's campaign has been aggressively heading them. >> i just gotten a email from ginger gibson, who's with gingrich. he'll give a full speech when the results come in. he's only planning to come out and say hi to the all of a sudden to keep them there and fired up. it looks like santorum will have the stage to himself. he'll be able to is et the stage to make the argument that he is the conservative alternative to roll any and then pivot to the states that you talked about. it's interesting. you have southern states, illinois, wisconsin, god's country down the road and all those states could potentially be very good for rick santorum, if you think about the type of electorate that you. >> that's true and you also have to remember that he's looking at picking up missouri as well. they are revving up the crowd again here. >> i'm going to let you go and come back to you after the speech. the minute santorum is up there and starts to speak, we'll wait to it. we'd like to wait until he actually says something. in the meantime, patrick gavin, in the media room, who's been monitoring what's been happening elsewhere in the media, what are you hearing? >> plans we saw a preview of what rick santorum is about to say out there. he went on fox a couple of minutes ago. there's a bit of history there. he said that previously fox news had been chilling for gingrich. he said i'm still a little worried about the coverage overall even though greta and sean have been good. david and goliath is exactly a quote that rick santorum said to greta van sust torin and i expect him to repeat that tonight. that he is the underdog, that he is being overwhelmed inanoths the idea that it is completely laughable anybody would consider mitt romney to be a conservative. he has been beating the drum for a long time. i think you will see a lot tonight this idea of trying to laugh him out of the ruminant appeals to conservative voters. a lot of them are going for rick santorum. he would hear even more of that coming from the candidates. >> we are going to go down to our political editor. charlie, i hope you are coming armed with information on delegates. >> he is also leading in mississippi. we go live now to hear from rick santorum speaking in louisiana. [applause] >> one more thing, and you will all appreciated. you know we have to do something like this for rick santorum. i heard him talk, and he talks kind of funny. he thinks we talk funny. that is how it works in south louisiana. i decided he deserves the right to be an honorary occasion. -- cajun. [cheers and applause] >> we did it take and. [cheers and applause] thank you very much. first and foremost as we continue this campaign and continue to work hard. i want to t why everybody. -- i want to thank everybody. i get this question all the time. the most common thing i hear from people -- i know i am not alone, people say "i am praying for you." [cheers and applause] i just want to each -- i just want to thank you for that. that is what this race has been about. people said, you are being outspent. everybody is talking about all of the math and other things that this race is inevitable. for somebody who thinks the race is inevitable, he is spending a whole lot of money against me for being inevitable. [cheers and applause] this is a grass-roots campaign for president. who would have never thought in the age of media that we have in this country today that ordinary folks or crossing this country can defy the odds day in and day out. i want to thank the people of kansas over the weekend. i said when i was in wichita -- i know i did really well because my wife spoke of that caucus. [cheers and applause] the first couple of times i got this from some reporters who were doing interviews with me and karen, it is funny. now it is becoming annoying. they keep telling me, you should speak glass and let karen speak more. you do better. -- you should speak less and let karen speak more. she has been an asset to the campaign. she has been an amazing gift to me and these children, john, daniel, sarah, marie, and patrick behind me. this team appear on the stage has just delivered time and time again. i just want to thank them again publicly for all they are doing for us. [cheers and applause] my daughter elizabeth is in hawaii. tough duty, i know. we are counting on her to surprise them all out there with the results tonight. when you wake up in the morning, we will see how well my daughter did. thank you for the sacrifice. i always have to say, i know she is watching me at home, by 3 1/2 year old. glassy. i love you. -- bless you. i love you. this campaign is about ordinary people doing extraordinary things, sort of like america. sort of like america, going out there and exceeding expectations. going out there and defying the odds. we believe in something that is bigger than ourselves. that is what america has always been about. it has not been about self. it has been about giving and trying to do something for somebody who needs help more than you do yourself. i looked around. the crowds that we had an alabama and mississippi. i just have to tell you, i was so encouraged. all the polls were showing us trailing. they kept coming out and saying, we believe the new. we are going to work hard and make the difference. i just want to say to the people of alabama, you need a great difference tonight. thank you very much for your support. [cheers and applause] i do nothing there was a single poll that had me anywhere close to winning mississippi. not one. yet, i knew when i was traveling and around whether it was down to the gulf, the people that i men and the passion in their heart, they understood how important the races for themselves and their families and for the future of our country. i end my speech by talking about the declaration of independence and how we have to pledge to each other our lives, our fortune, and our sacred honor. every generation does. [cheers and applause] the people of this country, the people who are out there who are affected when gas prices go up, the quality of their life is affected when the government is irresponsible in their responsive to the needs of average people. particularly when it comes to gas prices in this country, i am here in lafayette, louisiana tonight. [cheers and applause] i wanted to be here because of them. this is the heart of the oil and gas industry and the gulf coast. [cheers and applause] this administration almost put this town under with the delays in permitting that are getting worse and worse and worse and as a result, the ability for the men and women who drill these wells and service these wells to go out and earn an income and more importantly, for them to get the oil and gas into the shore so we can use it here in this country. we are seeing gas prices at what are projected to be historic highs. yet this president almost put this entire region out of business because of the extreme environmental policies of the administration. we wanted to be here in lafayette to say to you people struggling from energy prices, we will but this town back to work to you can go back to work and have a higher quality of life. [cheers and applause] i finally just want to say to the people of mississippi, i can not thank you enough. i do not know whether the race is called or not, but i can tell you this. what the people down there did in spite of all of the odds and money being spent, all of the establishment -- all of the establishment being on the other side of this race, you stood with a guy who comes from the grandson of a coal miner from pennsylvania, but you knew he shares your values and was going to go out and work for you to make sure that this country was free and safe and prosperous based on believe in free people and free markets and free economy and of course the integrity of the family and faith in our lives. [cheers and applause] now, missouri is next. we did well in the primary. we hope to do even better in the caucuses this weekend. next week we will come back here and we expect a huge when. -- win. [cheers and applause] we will compete everywhere. we will compete everywhere. the time is now for conservatives to pull together. the time is now to make sure to make sure that we have the best chance to win this election and the best chance to win the election is to nominate a conservative to go what against barack obama who can take him on on every issue. [cheers and applause] if louisiana, missouri, illinois, and, yes, puerto rico which we are heading to tonight -- we will spend two days campaigning in puerto rico. we want to make sure everybody knows we are campaigning everywhere there are delegates. we are going to win the nomination before the convention. [cheers and applause] if you folks do your part and you help us like the folks in alabama and hopefully the folks in mississippi dead -- in mississippi did -- [cheers and applause] you do your job next week, we will nominate a conservative. if we nominate a conservative, we will defeat barack obama and send this country back on the right track. thank you, god bless. [cheers and applause] >> hello, everybody. i just wanted to introduce camille and haley harris. on their own, they did a wonderful -- they composed and wrote the lyrics to a wonderful song and we absolutely love. here they are. we just love them dearly. you will love the song. >> thank you. [applause] >> i'm not sure if you can hear this or not. this is for the rick santorum family, especially senator rick. it is called "game on." listen to it, share it, let's get him elected. we are excited for this campaign. ♪ game on, victory is in sight. we have a man that understands that god gave the bill of rights. there is hope for our nation again. maybe the first time since we first had ronald reagan. there will be justice for the unborn. the constitution rules our land. i believe rick santorum is our man. ♪ game on. he has the plan to raise morale, lower taxes. game on. changes at hand. faithful to his wife and seven kids, they will be loyal to our land. there is hope for our nation again. maybe the first time since we had ronald reagan. there will be justice for the unborn, factories back on our shores where constitution's rule our land. yes i believe rick santorum is our man. ♪ 0, it has been crazy, what has been slipping into our hands when we have people who are supposed to roll this land ♪ . rick understands so there is hope for our nation again. maybe since the first time that we had ronald reagan. there will be justice for the unborn, factories back on our shores, where the constitution rules our land. there is hope for our nation again. maybe the first time since we had ronald reagan. there will be justice for the unborn, factories back on our shores, where the constitution rules our land. yes, i believe, rick santorum is our man ♪ ♪ yes, i believe rick santorum is our man ♪ ♪ yes, rick santorum is our man ♪ ♪ ♪game on ♪ >> i guess we are singing it one more time. ♪ game on ♪ join the fight. we finally have a man who will stand for what is right. the and on. victory is in sight. we have a man who understands that god gave the bill of rights ♪ for our nation again. maybe the first time since we had ronald reagan. there will be justice for the unborn, factories for our shores where the constitution rules our land ♪ >> c-span's coverage continues. we lost the signal where rick santorum -- the winner in alabama and according to the results and mississippi, also currently ahead. rick santorum winning both states. in both of the states, mitt romney coming in third. here are the results right now with the associated press declaring rick santorum the winner with 35% of the vote. 30% 4 newt gingrich, 28% for mitt romney. in neighboring mississippi, 33% for rick santorum, a close second to newt gingrich at 31%. mitt romney at 30%. there are 50 delegates for state and alabama and 40 in mississippi. no public appearances by mitt romney. he was in missouri earlier in the day. we will take you to newt gingrich's campaign headquarters. we will take you live now to birmingham, alabama where the vent is getting under way at this hour. >>-- which i originally accepted. it was a no-brainer for me. we have worked hard. i wish i could introduce to you everybody who has volunteered to the campaign, every person who was in a leadership position, we organized every county. we organize south alabama, north alabama, east, west, we still have a great leadership team. i was so honored that the speaker asked me to lead the campaign. i was with him all last week. we traveled all over the state. we had wonderful receptions. we had huge rallies and crowds. let me say, like yogi bear would it'st, it isn't over until over. [applause] this campaign is going on. i heard speaker gingrich a lot of times of the last week we would be writing and a boss or we would be running at their plants going from rally to rally. he is senate tuesday, i can assure you by far -- he is in it to stay. i can assure you by far. he is the best person in the campaign to be the president of the united states. [applause] he told me yesterday that he has received 175,000 donations to his campaign. 175,000. 95% of those donations are less than $250. he said, i owe an obligation to those 175,000 people to stay in this race. he said, i am going to stay in the race. [cheers and applause] i want to thank all of you for coming out tonight. let me tell you something quickly that is different this year over four years ago. our primary used to be in june. ok? by the time alabama's primary came along, it was over. alabama had no real significance and who was going to be the nominee. we move the primary -- the legislature moved to march. this is a turning point in the campaign. alabama is a significant player in who is the nominee in this election cycle. that is the reason that we have the national media here. let me welcome all of you to birmingham and alabama. thank you for coming out tonight. this is a good crowd. it has been a great week. it has been a great campaign. we're going to move on. the speaker is going to illinois tomorrow. we still have a lot of victories out there. this one in alabama and mississippi is not over yet. thank you very much. >> ladies and gentlemen, please welcome family members jackie cushman, jimmy cushman, and gingrich. [applause] se ♪ >> please welcome the next president of the nine states, newt gingrich. [cheers and applause] -- the next president of the united states, and newt gingrich. [cheers and applause] >> thank you. thank you for the warm welcome. it is great to be here in birmingham. let me begin by saying how grateful we are to the people of alabama. we have truly enjoyed our time here and are humbled by year overwhelming support and prayers. we are engaged in this race because we believe america is at a crossroads and we care deeply about the future of the country. in a few months, we will face the most important election of our lifetime. our only opponent is barack obama, and we are committed to removing him from the white house. [cheers and applause] over the last week, president obama and the white house seem to have gotten the message. they have stepped up the rhetoric against new gingrich and his plan to maximize energy production. it is clear americans are eager to develop our abundant energy resources. newt gingrich is the only candidate with the experience and knowledge necessary to rebuild the american that we love. he has a successful national record of creating jobs, balancing the budget, and reforming our government. we need a leader with a bold solutions to create a better future for all americans. i believe that leader is my husband. please welcome the former speaker of the house and the next president of the united states, newt gingrich. ♪ [applause] >> let me thank all of you for your hard work and all the work you did. i particularly want to thank wagner who has been tireless in crisscrossing the state. delightful that they are with us tonight. we congratulate them on their 54th anniversary. i also want to thank michael who from the very beginning help us put together a campaign here in alabama. obviously, we would like to come in first -- i would like to say i congratulate rick santorum and a great campaign. he has won a victory in both states. he has worked hard to achieve it. i know how much he and his entire family have put into the campaign. i congratulate him on a positive meeting and -- a positive evening and results. we are going to lead alabama and mississippi with a substantial number of delegates, increasing our total going towards tampa. we are very grateful to you. he made the outcome possible. with your help will taken a much bigger delegation to had yesterday. thank you for that. [cheers and applause] i emphasize going to tampa because one of the things tonight approved his that he lead media's effort to convince the nation that mitt romney is inevitable just collapsed. [cheers and applause] the fact is in both states the conservative candidates got nearly 70% of the vote. if you are the front-runner and you keep coming in third, you are not much of a front-runner. [cheers and applause] frankly, i do not believe that a massachusetts moderate who created romney care as the forerunner of obamacare is going to be in a position to win any debates this fall. that is part of the reason i have insisted on staying in the race. we need somebody who can go toe to toe with barack obama and the date him and when debates decisively. [cheers and applause] --debate him and win debates decisively. i will always remember campaigning in alabama because it was here in the last week that the issue of gasoline was crystallized. we have not always gotten our message across in terms of getting as many votes as we would like, we clearly were changing the national dialogue all week. the president has now made three speeches and press conference on energy, the white house press secretary has attacked me twice. we were told the secretary of anti energy, dr. chu, announced this afternoon that he actually was not for european level prices of gasoline. he had changed his mind. [cheers and applause] i would say in the middle of a campaign in these two states, we are already impacting the national debate on a scale that all of mitt romney's at money has not achieved. we are doing it because ideas matter. [cheers and applause] adhere the reagan tradition of visionary conservatism is based on proverbs and the very deep believe that without vision the people perish. i believe we need a visionary leader who is prepared to talk about a dramatically better future with dramatically more jobs, dramatically more energy, and a much safer and stronger a america. that is the key to winning the fall. not all of this patty maloney, but the really big choices. when i went -- not all of this petty bologna, but thie real choices. he wrote an article and walked through step-by-step why it was possible. the fact is, it is very possible. [cheers and applause] than yesterday, steven moore reported these numbers are so amazing -- i think the fact of want to talk about substance is what makes the campaign different from other campaigns. is the reason we will go all the way to tampa to compete for the nomination. we need in a time of great problems greece solutions. substance requires actually knowing something. -- problems great solutions. substance requires a actually knowing something. virtually everything president obama knows is wrong. ronald reagan used to say it is not what they do not know that is so frightening, it is what they know is wrong. we were told by the u.s. geological survey in the 1990's there was 150 million barrels of recoverable oil in north dakota. this was a period when liberals told us we are about to run out. we have no future. new drilling technology came along. we are now told that in fact as of this last week they believe there are 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil in north dakota alone. that made me feel like i had to change my speech. up until last week i had been saying there was 25 times as much oil as they thought. it turns out the current estimate is there are 160 times -- 16,000% more oil in north dakota and then they thought there was a 1990's. some experts believe that number is off by a huge number. future technology will lead us to find about 500 billion barrels of oil. i am not try to fill you up with numbers but i am trying to give it. about a general direction. an american president who believes in science and technology would drive the price of gasoline below $2.50, would eliminate our dependence on the middle east, and we would never again out to a saudi king. [cheers and applause] -- bow to a saudi king. [cheers and applause] so you have my promise. at a time i hooch's evening we have ended any news media talk about the inevitability of their hand-picked candidate. at a time we can forget about trying to nominate a massachusetts moderate and start talking about when the primaries are over. who would do the best job of representing america, governing and winning the election against barack obama. let me just disclose this observation about something senator wagner said earlier. i hope it is something you will take to heart. i am grateful in mississippi and alabama. i have had wonderful relationships and friendships. my daughters, we have all had a terrific time here. jimmy has already got a commitment to go bass fishing. ray has indicated he thought he could give jimmy a fairly good afternoon of that. from his standpoint, this is already a successful evening. we have all been out campaigning and have had a wonderful response. we are grateful. what will become a challenge as we have three or four days of the news media and it will say, why does newt gingrich not quit? the recycle this every six weeks. the biggest challenge is, and getting money because we came in second. between santorum and myself, we will get over two-thirds of the delegates. the person who gives me hope and who makes me stay in this race and makes me committed to way toing ideas all the tampa is samuel sanford. he is an unemployed person who decided after hearing my speech on c-span or on the internet that he really liked what i was trying to do on gasoline. we talk about the fact you can go to newt.org and get one gallon of newt gas. he went on line and he gave two dollars -- $2.50. he mitt romney has all of these millionaires that uses tax money people gave them. he has money. we will not compete with money. we have 175,000 donors -- over 95% of them have given less than $250. i called him, and it was a very humbling call. i got him in the afternoon after he had gone home from his cancer treatment. he took out of his savings to 50 because he wants to be part of saving america. that to me was such a humbling conversation, the dedication that he had to america. his commitment to the people's campaign. his unwillingness to give up and let millionaires' row over him. that meant a lot to me. i won all of you to know that with your help, if he will go back and face but, if you twitter, if you use e-mail, we will continue -- if you facebook, if he twitter, it will be obvious when the campaign is over the front runner did not get there. thank you, good luck, god bless you. ♪ i am a real american. i am a real american. fight for what is right. fight for your right. i feel strong about right and wrong. trouble fortake every long. ♪ i got something deep inside of me, and courage is the thing that keeps us free. i ama real american. fight for the rights of every man. i am a real american. fight for what's right. fight for your life! ♪ i am a real american. fight for the rights of every man. i am a real american. ♪ >> newt gingrich in birmingham, alabama, coming in second in alabama and mississippi. rick santorum winning both of the southern states. mitt romney coming in third. our phone lines are open. we are tracking your comments on our twitter page and at c- span.org, a look at the man can give you a sense of where the race has been and where it is going. -- to look at the map can give you a sense of where the race has been and where it is going. 20 delegates at stake in sat -- in hawaii and delegates available in american samoa. you can see rick santorum doing well in the heartland of the country and also now in the deep south. newt gingrich win in his own state of georgia and south carolina. and you have mitt romney who has won in new england, florida, ohio, michigan, and states out was like idaho, nevada, and washington state. next week louisiana and next tuesday, the illinois primary. good evening, your thoughts about the results tonight. >> hello, good evening. i am actually from connecticut. i originally was a newt gingrich supporter. earlier on i felt the both newt gingrich and santorum or acting very mean-spirited. i just did not like their debate behavior. i switched over and became a mitt romney supporter. even tonight and newt gingrich's speech, once again he is talking about mitt romney getting money from wall street. you know, i think we really need to stop bashing each other and focus on defeating president obama. i am begging everybody in the race to stop, stop, stop with each other. let's defeat obama. >> tyler is on the phone from new haven, ky. >> hello. >> you are on the air. >> i actually from new haven, conn. >> i apologize. >> i am a rick santorum supporter. i have been one for a long time. i think it is an electability argument for me. everybody says mitt romney is the most delectable, but i think rick santorum has an appeal to what we call ronald reagan democrats. mitt romney cannot reach out to those people going down day today, who worked full-time jobs and understand times when gas is expensive, they understand those problems. i do nothing mitt romney connect with voters. i think rick santorum as much better. he has better appeal across democratic -- demographics that mitt romney will never have. >> thank you for the call. next is a supporter of newt gingrich. >> good evening. thank you very much. although i think rick santorum is a great guy, i strongly believe that newt gingrich is by far the best qualified for the position. i would like to remind -- i would like to put this thought in people's minds. newt gingrich today as a 68- grandfather is completely different than the man that he was in the 1990's and his 50's. i think he has repented from what he has done wrong. he asked for forgiveness. this man truly has the experience that this country needs to be able to do what needs to be done and not only defeating the obama but also in dealing with the establishment of both parties who need to change their ways and truly put america ahead of their own personal interest. i believe that newt gingrich is dedicated to doing that for the people of this country. >> let me jump in as we watch newt gingrich. he was the only candidate to be in one of the states holding primaries. he is an alabama tonight. rick santorum is in louisiana and mitt romney is a new york city. when you look at the primary calendar this week ahead, he is counting on taxes. what is his path forward to get in nomination on the ballot? >> let me simply tell you what i did in michigan. i did this without any input from any candidate or rush limbaugh or anybody else. i had this thought of voting for rick santorum because i know that newt gingrich cannot win. i voted rick santorum to defeat mitt romney, to extend the campaign. as new gingrich just said in his speech tonight, once we get to tampa -- there is no absolute winner, it is a whole new game. i truly believe that the maturity that this man has and the experience he has, i think the majority of people will come to their senses and truly realize what a debater and what a strong man of faith new gingrich's. how he can stand up to barack obama. yes, we need to get rid of him. >> thank you for the call. thank you for your comment. looking at the associated press keeping track of the delegate count, this is available on our website at c-span.org. mitt romney has 470, rick santorum with 230 a, newt gingrich with 124, a ron paul with 47. we keep track of results in the primaries. you can see where mitt romney has been winning along the two coast's including florida. rick santorum winning in the central part of the country. tennessee, the border states and two big ones tonight. next is a supporter for rick santorum. go ahead please. >> thank you for taking my call. i just want to mention -- very simply, rick santorum is the only one in my opinion that is in touch with reality and in touch with the people. i think newt gingrich should take a look at the scoreboard. he should consider what has happened in the southeast. he did not win where he should have won. mitt romney, he is only where he is because of the amount of money he spent on promoting himself. i do not think he is in any more touch with reality than new gingrich's. -- newt gingrich is. i think newt gingrich and ron paul need to step out and let this be a two-man race and let the best man win. >> rick santorum the winner in both of the states. newt gingrich coming in second with 31% of the vote. mitt romney getting 30% of the vote. this is with 93% reporting. earlier this evening, the associated press declaring rick santorum the winner in alabama as well. voting will take place and about 45 minutes and hawaii. rick santorum is heading to puerto rico for two days of campaigning and back to the states with campaign appearances in illinois. we are joined by a supporter of mitt romney. >> good evening to you. i am a strong supporter of mitt romney. it really irks me -- he said all day long. they make fun of him 24/7. i cannot understand -- i am upset you have politico doing this whole thing. they never say one thing wrong about the president. the president is god to them. why would you have them? this is the first thing -- and america we had a c-span that we did not have any political groups in charge of. i do not know what you put that group in charge tonight. it turns my stomach. i go back to mitt romney. i wish you knew what was in -- what was in his heart. he says he knows people who own football teams and they make fun of him. why do they not make fun of president obama for knowing all the movie stars and directors and the funny movies they make of him -- the fictional character they have produced? you guys do not say anything about that. can you tell me what you had politico do this tonight? >> absolutely. thank you for calling. as always, we appreciate your comments and feedback. as we have always done under this campaign during the course of the primary, we have given a national audience and how the sense is unfolding. politico was simulcasting their coverage on news channel 8 and it was hard decision to let them see how this process was unfolding. politico is a leading organization covering politics. we do that with other organizations and will continue to do so. we appreciate your comments. hopefully you will keep watching. wilson is a supporter of ron paul. >> good evening. >> good evening to you. >> i think the race is interesting and intriguing. i wrote an article which i wanted to be titled "i do not care who wins." i do not care who wins. i really would hope that whoever wins does only respect the constitution that we have. i think that is the key to solving all of the issues that we have. even though it is an old document, it is just common sense that everybody should understand it and respected. it is for the people. if we had all the candidates taking their oath seriously, i would vote for any one of them. i really am a ron paul supporter because he is the one who does follow the constitution. he votes alongside with it. i just wish it was not such a weird thing. it is like everywhere i look, it is hard to get common sense. i wish people would study their documents. i think if everybody truly understood what was in there, we would not have all of these problems. we would have had a republican candidate and we would have been going in the right path for america. >> thank you for the call. we should point out the ron paul and mitt romney did not have any appearances tonight. otherwise we certainly would have provided live coverage. the only two candidates speaking this evening, rick santorum declaring victory in alabama and mississippi. newt gingrich coming in second. newt gingrich was an alabama. rick santorum is heading to puerto rico to campaign for delegates in a state. the next primary will be tuesday in illinois. primaries and caucuses going on in the story and louisiana as well. -- missouri and louisiana as well. lesley is on the fund. good evening to you. >> thank you for taking my call. i am very much for newt gingrich because he is the strongest voice against obamacare. i am very against obamacare because there is no cost containment and there is no guarantee of the quality of health care in obamacare. this money is going to be siphoned out of their paycheck just like social security trust funds to pay for deficits/debt and paying that off. reality and being in touch with the people will not matter much if we do not have money to take care of our households. it was once a abraham lincoln once said "the strength of a nation lies at home with the people." newt gingrich is the one candidate who i see that is most opposed to obamacare. i see there right now that is the first order of business. he can handle things with foreign affairs with diplomacy rather than shockj and awe. he can troubleshoot and work out agreements to make people come to the table and come to some communication that is good for both sides. i do not see that with mitt romney. he is a man that wants to go into iran and wants to really deal with them and grab the bull by the horns. he wants to take on china about intellectual property. he is forgetting that china is buying much of our debt and he wants to take on everybody. mitt romney is a hot head as i see. newt gingrich has more cool. he has more experience. he has more know-how. he is very insightful. he knows what is going to be around the corner. hawaii -- it is much more important to predict the tide and is to ride the wave. that is the beautiful -- that is the beauty of newt gingrich. he can see things before they happen and be able to say the "the first order of business, this is what we have to take care of." right now is obama. -- obamacare. it will not matter if we are all broke. there is no cost containment and no quality of health care. right now we have quality of health care in the united states but we do not have cost containment. obamacare is not the answer. it will be another way to siphon money out of our paychecks to pay for the deficit. >> i will stop there. thank you for the call. we will go next to darrell who was on the phone from south carolina, a supporter of rick santorum who 129 in alabama and mississippi. go ahead. -- who won toinght in alabama and mississippi. >> i am originally from pennsylvania and spent 15 years with bethlehem steel corp. they lay 10,000 of us off for my particular plant. there has been no bailout for the steel industry like the automobile industry. i understand where rick santorum is coming from when he says he is not for that. i just have a problem here with all of the candidates. they keep talking about romneycare and massachusetts and obamacare. none of them are attacking -- i am 64 years old, a vietnam veteran. i have no insurance at all. i had to use the emergency room and the bills are extremely high. i do not know why they should be allowed to charge so much -- over $3,000 to the emergency rooms. >> thank you so much for the call and sharing your story with us from south carolina. but see what the candidates will be doing. rick santorum heading to puerto rico with an eye on delegates in the border region caucuses. mitt romney is a new york city raising money with the next two days. no public appearances scheduled. newt gingrich and ron paul and eleanor with an eye on the primary next tuesday. -- newt gingrich and ron paul in illinois with an eye on the primary next tuesday. set the stage -- what does it mean for mitt romney? >> the mitt romney campaign has been caught the last four or five days and expectations game they could neither control nor navigate to their candidate's benefit. alabama and mississippi to my mind, and most people i talk to in both states, never set up well for mitt romney. when he did not win tennessee on super tuesday, which i always believed was the state within the old confederacy most likely to go for mitt romney, i never thought he had a chance in mississippi and alabama. what we saw tonight is in the urban areas of both states, birmingham, mobile, jackson and other parts, the performance for mitt romney was good as a percentage of the vote, but it was terrible in terms of turnout and enthusiasm. mitt romney underperforms in both states. newt gingrich does the very bare minimum to stay in the race. so mitt romney can continue to do is what he will say tomorrow if he does a public appearance. i am still leading the delegates. i won a bunch of delegates and hawaii. i want a bunch of delegates and american samoa. he has been winning in places no republican voter cares about. let's be honest. most republicans care about republicans in kansas or alabama or mississippi. those republicans do not like mitt romney very much. they probably are not going to like him very much in missouri. this sets up a situation next week where he goes head on head with rick santorum and newt gingrich in illinois, a state that should lean in his direction. the polls that have already tightened, they will tighten more. i will be willing to bet by thursday if not sooner, but certainly by tuesday santorum will be in the lee by illinois. mitt romney will probably have to scratch and claw. the best thing he can hope for is a narrow victory in illinois. but today's results make it absolutely clear this race will go deep into april, probably through to may and all the way to june. >> major garrett, let me follow up on a scheduling item. right now, according to the romney campaign, he is not scheduled to be in illinois until monday. will that change? >> well, that's the current schedule. and they may take another look at that. they've already purchased -- i believe i saw today -- upwards of $3 million of television advertising in illinois. so romney may not be there, but his presence on television will be. and it would be crucial for romney to run up the vote to the degree he can in the suburban areas around chicago and in the areas nearest the university towns in illinois. he will probably do better in the northern part of the state and do very poorly in the southern part of the state. and if, as expected, rick santorum does well in the missouri caucuses, that will be momentum that will lead him toward illinois. and then we'll get to see what newt gingrich does, because gingrich was much closer to his geographical base in mississippi. he does not have a similar base in illinois. as a matter of fact, if there are any illinois republicans who would want to hold it against newt gingrich, newt gingrich took on, defeated and was not all together that pleasant to a revered figure, bob michel. i know that story is a little bit old, but for republicans who may remember that, they may not look on the speaker all that fondly. i suspect that illinois will not set up well for gingrich, but he's not getting out of this race. he made it fundamentally clear tonight he has no intention of doing that. so he, santorum and romney will claw away for votes in illinois, just as they have been for the last four weeks. >> major garrett, if you look at alabama and mississippi and you see mitt romney received about 30% of the vote, and the speaker alluded to this in his remarks, he had 2/3 of the vote. you would imagine that would be the conservative vote going against mitt romney for either rick san forum or newt gingrich. both have been saying all along they want a one-on-one, head-to-head contest with mitt romney. what do these numbers tell you about the state of the the romney campaign and the state of the conservatives within the republican party right now for rick santorum or newt gingrich? >> i wrote "national journal".com in december that romney was fundamentally misaligned with his party and that there was an opening for someone to exploit that misalignment. at the time it appeared to be newt gingrich. i wrote this before his poll numbers began to drop in mid december and really created before the iowa caucuses. so it appeared then that newt gingrich might be the one who could most easily and readily exploit that misalignment. it turned out not to be newt gingrich. but that doesn't mean the misalignment doesn't exist or hasn't existed throughout. it does exist and it has existed. where romney thrives is where the republican party is withering. the northeastern part of the united states. he is competitive in the midwest, but only narrowly so, and he is not competitive in the deep south. and you can't count virginia, because santorum and gingrich were not on the ballot. and florida is very much an exception to the old south, both because of its high urban concentration in the far southern part of state and sur ban concentration in the middle part of the state. so the old south, where the republican party is strongest, romney doesn't run well there. now, he runs well in the west. arizona he did well. and he will win -- he won nevada, so he does, generally speaking, ok there. but he does not appeal and has not appealed to those who are most enthusiastic about the parties present and are more likely to be involved in its future, which is highly motivated, either physical or social voters. what you saw in the exit polling tonight, it might be a better night for romney. a lot of people said the economy was the most important and electability was most important. even so, romney lost both places. >> let's take each of these candidates and remind our radio audience that we're talking with major garrett, also covers politics for the "national journal," his work available online. the story for newt gingrich tomorrow, what will it be? >> the story for newt gingrich will be i'm driving the white house crazy on gas prices. they're constantly reacting to me. they're constantly denouncing me by implication. jay carney, the white house press secretary on monday basically accused gingrich of lying. the speaker will say look, only one person in this race has got the white house. if you'll example cules the metaphor, wrapped around the axel when it comes to dwass lien prices. that is a -- gasoline prices. that is a vindication for me. i fell just short of mississippi and alabama. i'm staying in. rick santorum, all he has to say is look what i've done, i've won kansas, mississippi, alabama, you're helping me win, on ward. romney says look at the math. mathematics is interesting, but in politics it's the least commodity you can trade in, and right now romney is trading in mathematics and he better find a way to trade in something else, closer to the heart and more left brain, if you will, than right brain. i've got that backwards. but you get the point. >> we get the point. so let's turn to rick santorum, winning both states. a lot of the polling earlier saying that's going to come in second. he clearly won alabama and narrowly won mississippi. so what's the story tomorrow for the santorum campaign? >> for the santorum campaign it's look how much we do with so little. we're outspent in so many places. i believe the statistics in alabama were 5-1, possibly 6-1, being outspent by romney directly or by the super political action committee supporting him. santorum says -- and i think he's going to begin to say this to republicans. listen, all you people who think that romney runs such a great campaign, look again. he doesn't run that great a campaign. look what he's doing with his money. or i think santorum will begin to say, look what he's not doing with his money. why do you keep investing in this person, who doesn't win where our party thrives, who wins where our party withers, and who has, to put it mildly from the santorum perspective, a complicated approach to president obama on issues of health care and his record in massachusetts in job creation? so i think what santorum is going to say is i've got the real grass-roots campaign. i'm building a national campaign as i go. i've had none of the advantages that romney has brought to this campaign and yet, i am fighting him either to withdraw or very nearly to victory in places where i just fell short in michigan and ohio, or i beat him when the terrain is essentially not necessarily favorable to either of us. the south would be a classic example of that. i beat him, and i beat him square up. take a second look at me. >> and major garrett, just a moment ago we received this statement from governor mitt romney. he said, "i would like to congratulate rick santorum on his victory in alabama and mississippi. i am pleased that we will be increasing or delegate count in a very substantial way after tonight, and i made a lot of friends in alabama and mississippi, and we look forward to campaigning in those states in the general election. with the delegates won tonight, we are even closer to the nomination. ann and i would like to thank the people of alabama and mississippi because of their support. our campaign is on the move and ready to take president obama on in the fall." so what do you read into that? >> well, the fact that you're reading it is the first thing i read into it, and that i'm reading it and that we're discussing it, and nowhere can we throw to a sound bite from said candidate saying those very generous words to the good people of alabama and mississippi. look, when you have a night that's as con hispanic yuck justly bad -- conspicuously bad as this one, he came in third. he came in third in alabama. alabama is a place with birmingham and mobile, because of the pro-business orientation, romney would have a better than even chance and the polls indicated that he just might. didn't turn out that way. it's a bad night for romney, he knows that. yes, the delegate count in hawaii and elsewhere might be favorable to him. that will happen at 2:00 in the morning. at some point in the here and now of this campaign he's got to start winning in the here and now, when people are awake and eager to listen to him talk about the campaign. one last note -- even though it's a bad night for romney, bad night by any metric and any measurement, the obama campaign said in an email tonight about 9:54 eastern daylight time saying, hey, everyone, if the election were held today, mitt romney would beat barack obama. they cited one poll, "washington post"/abc news poll that came out this week that had romney at 49%, president obama at 47%. interestingly, steve, just hours before at the white house, a whole cadre of officials there were saying that poll is utterly meaningless. it's not consistent at all. recent polling data. a few hours later it became fodder for a rund raising pitch for the campaign. such is the tumultuous life of a campaign. >> the british p.m. attending a basketball game in dayton, ohio. this are press pictures. the british prime minister is catching what is basketball phenomena in the united states. but some referring to him going to a baseball game. they had to correct that. >> the most important thing about that is it was in a swing state, ohio. [laughter] >> so major garrett, one last question, and this is something we'll be talking about much more in the days ahead. but can rick santorum get the republican nomination? >> well, not before tampa. i mean, there's no -- unless mitt romney drops out, which i don't expect, barring that, he cannot -- rick santorum cannot win the nomination outright. statistically, by the time he gets to tampa. now, yes, after april 1, many of the states will shift from a proportional allocation of delegates to a winner-take-all format, which has been the historic way republicans have done this. under the old rules, romney would be much farther ahead. but under these current rules, which he knew existed, the proportional allocation of delegates keep everyone hanging around. after april 1 some of of the states will shift to winner take all. even under that format, there won't be enough delegates absent of romney dropping out completely for santorum to get to tampa, the convention site, with the requisite delegates. so it's either going to be a brokered convention or a conversational convention, unless romney can develop some newfound momentum and push ahead and drive santorum and gingrich out of the race. absent that, we're going to have a long protracted conversation in tampa about who the republican nominee is going to be. >> so to be continued. major garrett joining us live here in washington. white house and political correspondents for the "national journal." as always, we appreciate your perspective on these stories. >> thank you very much. >> let's take a look at the results in alabama and mississippi. a sweep for rick santorum, first in alabama, with 91% of the vote in. rick santorum, the former pennsylvania senator, getting 35% of the vote. that translates to 29% for newt gingrich, and 29% for mitt romney. meanwhile, in neighboring mississippi, another win for rick santorum with 93% reporting. 33% for rick santorum, 31% for newt gingrich and 30% for mitt romney. caucuses tonight in american samoa and hawaii. we'll have those results in our website at c-span.org and we will, of course, continue the conversation tomorrow morning on c-span's "washington journal." among our guests is jennifer duffy, the senator editor for the "cook political report" to talk about some of the key races. will the rms regain control of the senate, what are their chances and what about the democrats keeping the senate in this election? the policy director for concord coalition, joshua gordon, will talk about the new budget projections and what it means for the federal deficit. and stephen flanagan, who is with the center for strategic and international studies will be on to talk about the state visit tomorrow. the official visit by the british prime minister and our relations between the u.k. and the u.s. of course, we'll begin the program with your reaction to some of the results from mississippi and alabama, the "washington journal," 7:00 a.m. eastern time, 4:00 for those of you on the west coast. earlier tonight former senator rick santorum in louisiana with an eye on the caucuses there later in the months declaring victory in both mis and alabama -- mississippi and alabama. our coverage continues here on c-span. [cheers and applause] >> thank you. one more thing, auppeds you'll appreciate it. we have to do this for somebody like rick santorum. i heard him talk, and he talks kinds of funny. so when i heard that -- he thinks we talk funny, but that's how it works in south louisiana. so because of that i decided he deserves the right to be an honorary cajun. so tonight -- [cheers and applause] >> thank you. thank you. we did it again. [cheers and applause] thank you all very much. first and foremost, as we continue this campaign and continue to work hard, i just want to thank everybody. i want to thank everybody. i get this question all the time. what do people say to you when you get around and you meet all the people we've been meeting as we criss-cross this country? the most common thing i hear from people -- and i know i'm not alone -- is people come up and say, i'm praying for you. [cheers and applause] >> i just want to thank you for that. i want to thank god for giving us the strengths every day to go out there and to be clear in our message and our vision for this country. and that's what this race has been about. people have said, you know, you're being outspent and everybody's talking about all the math and all the things that this race is inevitable. well, for someone who thinks this race is inevitable, you spend a whole lot of money against me for being inevitable. this is a grass-roots campaign for president. who would have ever thought in the age of media that we have in this country today that ordinary folks from across this country can defy the odds day in, day out? i want to thank the people of kansas over the week. we would not be here today. i said when i was in wichita -- and i know i did really well in wichita, because my wife, karen, spoke at that caucus, but -- [cheers and applause] the first couple of times i got this from reporters, it was funny. now it's becoming a little bit annoying. they keep telling me after the interview, you should speak less and let karen speak more. you'd do better. but she has been an amazing asset to this campaign, but more importantly, she is an amazing gift to me and to these children, john, daniel, sarah, maria, peter and patrick, who are here behind me. this team up here on this stage has just delivered time and time again for me and my life, and i just want to thank them again publicly for all that they're doing for us. god bless you. thank you. [applause] my daughter, elizabeth, is in hawaii. tough duty, i know. but she's in hawaii, so we're counting on elizabeth to surprise them all out there with the results tonight when you wake up in the morning and we'll see how well my daughter did. thank you, sweetie, for the sacrifice. and, of course, i always have to say hello to my little sweetheart. i know she's watching me at home, my little 3 1/2-year-old bella. thank you, sweetie, i love you. [applause] this campaign is about ordinary folks doing extraordinary things. sort of like america. sort of like america. going out there and exceeding expectations, going out there defying the odds, because we believe in something that's bigger than ourselves. that's what america has always been about. it's not been about self, it's been about serving, it's been about giving and trying to do something for someone who needs help more than you do yourself. and i looked around and the crowds that we had in alabama and mississippi, and i just have to tell you, i was so encouraged. all the polls are showing us trailing. and they kept coming out and they kept saying we believe in you. we're going to work hard and we're going to make the difference. so i just want to say first, to the people of alabama, you made a great difference tonight. thank you very, very much for your support. [cheers and applause] i don't think there was a single poll that had me anywhere close to winning mississippi. not one. and yet, i knew when i was traveling around, whether it was all the way up in tupelo or all the way down in gulf, florida, the folks that i met and the passion in their heart, they understood how important this race is for themselves and their families and for the future of our country. and i end all my speech by talking about the declaration of independence and how we have to pledge to each other our lives, our fortune, our sacred honor. every generation does in order to maintain the great freedom, the great torch that has been given every generation of americans. [cheers and applause] and the people of this country, the folks who are out there who are affected when gas prices go up. they are affected with a government who is irrelevance responsible and irresponsiblive to the needs of average people, particularly when it comes to gas priceness this country. i'm here in lafayette, louisiana, tonight and -- [cheers and applause] i wanted to be here because of them. this is the heart of the oil and gas industry on the gulf coast. and this administration almost put this town under with the moratoriums, the delays in permitting that are getting worse and worse and worse. and as a result, the ability for the men and women who go out and drill these wells and service these wells, to go out and earn an income, and more importantly, for them to get that oil and gas into the shore so we can use it here in this country. we're seeing gas prices at what are projected to be historic highs, and yet, this president almost put this whole region out of business by -- because of the extreme environmental policies of this administration. and we wanted to be here in lafayette to say to average folks who are struggling right now because of those energy prices, we will put this town and this region back to work so you can go back to work and have a better quality of life. [cheers and applause] i finally just want to say to the people of mississippi, i just can't thank you enough. i don't know why -- we've been out here a few minutes, i don't know whether the race is called or not. but i can tell you this -- what the folks down there did in spite of all the odd, all the money being spent, all the establishment, all the establishment being on the other side of this race, you stood with a guy who comes from this grandson of a coal miner from a steel town in western pennsylvania, but you knew shared your values and was going to go out and work for you to make sure that this country was free and safe and prosperous based on believing in free people and free markets, a free economy and, of course, the integrity of the family and the centrality of faith in our lives. [cheers and applause] thank you. now, missouri is next. we did well in the primary. we hope to do even better in the caucuses this weekend, and, of course, next week -- next week we'll come back here and we expect a huge win here in cajun country. [cheers and applause] we will compete everywhere. we will compete everywhere. the time is now for conservatives to pull together. the time is now to make sure -- to make sure that we have the best chance to win this election and the best chance to win this election is to nominate a conservative to go up against barack obama, who can take him on on every issue. if louisiana, missouri, illinois, and, yes, puerto rico, which we are heading to tonight, i might add, and we're going to spend two days campaigning in puerto rico, because we want to make sure that everybody knows we're campaigning everywhere there are delegates, because we are going to win this nomination before that convention. [cheers and applause] if those states do their parts starting right here in louisiana, if you folks do your part and you help us, like the folks in alabama and hopefully the folks in mississippi did -- we did? i guess. >> you do your job. you do your job next week we'll nominate a conservative, and if we nominate a conservative we will defeat barack obama and set this country back on the right track many thank you, god bless. thank you. [cheers and applause] >> in tonight's g.o.p. presidential primary in mississippi and alabama, newt gingrich came in second to rick santorum. the former house speaker spoke in birmingham, alabama. this is about 20 minutes. ♪ ♪ ♪ [cheers and applause] >> thank you. thank you for that warm welcome. it's great to be here in birmingham. let me begin by saying how grateful we are to the people of alabama. we have truly enjoyed our time here and are humbled by your overwhelming support and prayers. newt and i are engaged in this race because we believe america is at a crossroads and care deeply about the future of this country. in a few months we will face the most important election of our lifetime. our only opponent is barack obama, and we are committed to removing him from the white house. [cheers and applause] over the last week president obama and the white house seemed to have gotten that message. they have stepped up the rhetoric against newt and his plan to maximize american energy production. yet it's clear americans are eager to develop our abundant energy resources. that's right. newt is the only candidate with the experience and knowledge necessary to rebuild the america we love. [applause] he has a successful national record of creating jobs, balancing the budget and reforming our government. today we need a leader with bold solutions to create a better future for all americans. i believe that leader is my husband. please welcome former speaker of the house and the next president of the smates, newt gingrich. -- of the united states, newt gingrich. [cheers and applause] ♪ ♪ >> leet me thank all of you for your very, very hard work and all the work dufment i particularly want to thank jebba wagner, who's been tireless in criss-crossing the state and i'm glad they are with us tonight and we congratulate them on their 54th anniversary and it's great to have them here with us. i also want to thank michael, who helped us put together a campaign here in alabama. it's quite an evening. obviously we'd liked to have come in first, but i'd like to start by saying i congratulate rick santorum on a great campaign. he has won a victory in both states and he's worked very hard to achieve it. i know how much he's put into h campaign, he and his entire family over the last year and i congratulate him on a positive evening and a positive result. e positive evening and the positive results. i would also point out that because this is proportional representation, we are going to leave with a substantial number of delegates, increasing our total going towards tampa, and we are very grateful for you because you have made that possible, and if you have helped us, we will have a bigger delegation. thank you very much for that. [cheers and applause] i emphasize going to tampa, because one of the things tonight proved was that the elite media effort to convince the nation that mitt romney is inevitable just collapsed. [cheers and applause] the fact is in both states, the conservative candidates got nearly 70% of the vote, and if you are the front runner, if you are the front runner, and you keep coming in third, here are not much of a front-runner. [laughter] [cheers and applause] frankly, i do not believe that a massachusetts moderate who created romneycare as a forerunner of obama care is going to be in any position to win a debate this fall, and that is why i have stayed in the race. we need someone to go toe to toe with barack obama and win the debates decisively. [cheers and applause] that is exactly right. anywhere, anytime. i will always remember being here, because it was here that the issue of gasoline and energy was crystallized, and we have not always gotten our message across in terms of getting as many votes as we would like, he but we were clearly changing the national dialogue all week. you'll notice that the president has given some press conferences. they have attacked me twice on energy, and this afternoon, we were told that the secretary of anti-energy, dr. chu announced this afternoon that he was not for european-level prices of gasoline, that he had changed his mind. [laughter] now -- [cheers and applause] . so i would say we are already impacting the national debate on a scale that all of the mitt romney advertising money has not been able to achieve, and we do it because ideas matter. [cheers and applause] the reagan tradition of conservatism was based on problems and a very deep belief that without a vision, the people perish, and i believe we need a visionary leader who is prepared to talk about a dramatically better future with dramatically more jobs, dramatically more energy, and a much safer and stronger america. i think that is the key to winning this fall, not all of this petty bologna, but the really big choices, and as i went around talking about the gasoline, all sorts of folks were saying that was not possible, and then finally, on saturday, in "the wall street journal," there was a piece that was entitled "newt gingrich is right about gasoline," and he walked through step-by-step why it is possible, and the fact is is very possible. [cheers and applause] and then yesterday, it was reported in "the wall street journal" that these things are so amazing. the fact that i want to talk about substance is what makes this different from other campaigns and is the reason we will compete for the nomination. we need at a time of great problems great solutions, and great solutions require substance, and substance requires actually knowing something. that is a very important part of it. [cheers and applause] unfortunately, virtually everything president obama knows is wrong. ronald reagan used to say, "it is not what they do not know that is so frightening, here is what they know that is wrong of," and they are right. we were told about a geological survey in the 1990's that was about 150 million barrels of of recoverable oil in north dakota, and this was the period when the liberals told us we were about to run out, we have peak oil, we have no future. well, new drilling technology kate amara, and we are now told that, in fact, as of this last week, they believe there are 24 billion barrels of recoverable oil in north dakota alone. now, that made me think we had to change my speech, because up until last week, i have been saying there was 25 times as much oil as they thought, ' and that the current estimate is there are 160 times, 16,000 percent more oil in north dakota than they thought there was in the 1990's, and some experts believe that number is off by a huge margin, that future technology will ultimately lead us to find about 500 billion barrels of oil. now, i am not trying to fill you up with numbers, but i'm trying to make the point about a general direction. an american president that believed in energy, and an american president had better believe in science and technology would drive the price of gasoline below $2.50, with a limited our dependence on the middle east, and we would never ever about again to a saudi king. [cheers and applause] -- never again bow to a saudi king. [cheers and applause] [crowd whistling] so you have my promise, at a time when i hope this evening and ended and a news media talk of the inevitability of their handpicked candidate, at a time when we can forget about trying to nominate a massachusetts moderate and start talking about when the primaries are over and it is clear no one person has one, who would do a best job of representing america governing and winning the election against barack obama. and let me just close with this observation, something that senator wagner had said earlier. this really is, i hope, all of you will take it too large, and i am very grateful both in mississippi and in alabama. and one of relationships and friendships, and my daughters, kathy and jackie, and her husband, we have all had a terrific time. they have already gotten a commitment to go bass fishing. they were thinking they could give him a very good afternoon of bass fishing, so from his standpoint, this is already a very successful evening. we have been out campaigning, and we have that it was a response, and we are very, very grateful. we will now have three or four days, and these are the same people, bob tway, who said last june that i was dead. the recycled as every six weeks, and the biggest challenge will be raising money because we came in second, which was not as much as we wanted, and between santoro and myself, we will get over two-thirds of the delegates, and the so-called front-runner will get less than one-third of the delegates. the person who gives me hope and makes me stay in this race and makes me committed to caring ideas is samuel sandford. samuel sandford is an unemployed person who decided after year in my speech either on c-span or on the internet that he really liked what i was trying to do on gasoline, and we talked about the fact that you can go to newt.org and give 1 gallon of gas, $2 a decent, and he heard the speech and went online and 8 $2 the dissents, and he became number 175,000 donors -- went on line and gave 250 cents. -- $2.50. we have got 175,000 donors, over 95% of them giving less than 250 dollars. i called samuel, and it was actually a very humbling call. i got hit in the afternoon after he had come home from his cancer treatment. he is currently unemployed. he took out of the savings the $2.50, because he wants to be part of helping to save america. now, that come to me, was such a humbling conversation, the dedication he had to america, his commitment to the people's campaign, his unwillingness to give up and let the millionaires' row over him, it meant just and a menace -- give up and let the millionaires roll over him, it just meant a lot to calista and me. thank you, and good luck, and god bless you. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2012] ♪ i am a real american fight for the rights of every man i feel strong about right and wrong i do not trouble for very long i got something deep inside of made and courage is the thing that keeps us free i am a real american fight for the rights of every man i am a real american fight for what is right fight for your life i am a real american and fight for the rights of every man i am a real american fight for what is right fight for your life ♪ ♪ you hurt my friends you hurt my pride i have got to be a man i cannot let it slide i am a real american fight for the rights of every man i am a real american fight for what is right fight for your live -- life i am a real american fight for the rights of every man i am a real american ♪ ♪ ♪ >> ♪ pair of boots and a sack of clothes free and easy down the road i go ♪ ragweed's rocking on the radio free and easy down the road i go so i keep rolling like an old banjo free and easy down the road i go got the sun shining on the like a big spotlight so i know everything is going to be all right ♪ ♪ ♪ telling where the wind-blown free and easy down the road i go living life like a sunday stroll free and easy down the road i don't -- i go free and easy down the road i don't -- go if you have only got one around i am going to sit back and enjoy the ride ♪ ♪ ♪ i could make a million or wind up broke free and easy down the road i go someday i know it is going to take me home so free and easy down the road i don't -- go free and easy down the road i go ♪ ♪ ♪ you are the best around nothing is ever going to keep you down ♪ ♪ ♪ you are the best around nothing is ever going to keep you down you are the best around nothing is ever going to keep you down ♪ ♪ ♪ you are the best around nothing is ever going to keep you down you are the best around nothing is ever going to keep you down you are the best around nothing is ever going to keep you down ♪ ♪ whitepan's's "road to the house" continues. on saturday, the missouri caucuses will continue choosing delegates for the national convention. there are primaries in puerto rico on sunday and illinois on tuesday. the louisiana primary is march 24, and in the beginning of april, contests in the district of columbia, md., and wisconsin. to learn more about the candidates and the issues, go online to c-span.org /campaign2012. in a few moments, a preview of the legal arguments that supreme court is likely to hear later this month when they consider the constitutionality of the health-care law. in a little more than an hour, former national security adviser and another on the u.s. policy in the middle east, and then we will re-air tonight's speeches by republican presidential candidates rick santorum and newt gingrich. >> congratulations to all of this year's winners of this year's studentcam documentary contest. the theme was the constitution and you, showing what part of the constitution is important to them and why. watch all of the winning videos on our website, studentcam.org, and we will show the top videos on c-span and talk with the winner on "washington journal." >> the supreme court will hear oral arguments this month on the constitutionality of the health- care law. up next, the washington legal foundation previous arguments the high court is likely to hear. this is a little more than one hour. >> good morning. welcome to the washington legal foundation's seminar, a media briefing program, excuse me. i am with the legal studies division, and for those of you who are not familiar with what we do, we are a 501(c)(3) public interest law and policy center. we have been around for years. we started out mitigating and still do a good amount of that. we litigate original actions in court at all levels. in addition, we have a very vigorous and i think successful publishing program through our legal studies program, and those of you joining us on line debate, i encourage you to take a look at our publications after the program finishes up, and also, we have a communications site that puts on communications such as this one and web seminars, and we have a blog called the legal pulse. we are pleased to be coming to you from the center for free enterprise at our dupont center headquarters. tom olstein is with the law firm -- tom goldstein is with a law firm, and he is part of the scotusblog, one of the best on the internet, and he has also done a brief on one of the cases that is going to be discussed today, an usher office and he is on our legal advisory board. competent -- and he is also on our legal advisory board. tom? >> thank you for hosting this event. this is among the if not the nation's leading advocate for free enterprise, and as someone who practices before the supreme court, i really get to see the incredibly important work that it does. the other thing that wlf does is provide a forum. wlf believes and ideas and wants to be a part of the debate and to host the debate, and that is the purpose of today's event. we have the tremendous good fortune to have with us two of the lawyers who know the very most about the legal debate over the health-care reform statutes, and what has been happening at the supreme court, what the principal issues are going to be, how is that they may play out, and that is, of course, an issue of incredible importance to free enterprise, no matter which side of the case you are on, so it is obviously perfect and we are here and wlf for the event. ilya somin wears a second half, which is related to the first, and he is a frequent contributor to an extraordinary blog for all manner of content but including extraordinarily deep analysis of questions like this one, issues of libertarian legal philosophy, and the like. he is the co-editor of the supreme court economic review, really an extraordinary law and economics publication, and has written extensively about this case. andy pincus is a partner at a law firm here at washington, d.c. he, too, wears a second half, and he is the co-founder of a litigation clinic. -- he wears a second hat. he knows a lot about the relationship between law and free enterprise. he was the free counsel for the department of commerce and then went to be the general counsel for andersen worldwide. he was in the government as an assistant to the solicitor general and is now really one of the nation's leading supreme court advocates. his mother's birthday is today. and she knows it. and, yes, she is watching with everyone, which is really just mine entree for what c-span's provides all of the time in making information like this available, an event in washington, d.c., that you can around the country and at its website. it is a great opportunity for the people to appear at these sorts of events to get their message across, and c-span provides an incredible public- service for people around the nation. so the structure here is that we are going to do this and relatively long form, but we are going to make sure you have the opportunity here in the room, on the internet, as well, to ask questions, so both ilya and andy are going to talk for 50 minutes laying out the legislation and will respond, and that will take us to 40 minutes, and then we will take the next 50 minutes or so for questions. i will be relatively aggressive only in a sense of enforcing the 15 and five minutes, but my job is not basically done, and i would turn it over, starting with ilya. >> i would like to start out by thanking the washington legal foundation for organizing this event, and perhaps most important in giving me the privilege or representing them throughout the litigation. we have written an amicus brief on behalf of the plaintiffs of the case, urging the supreme court to strike down the individual mandate. i would also like to thank tom goldstein for moderating and also andy. i know that i was a summer associate, and andrew is one of the top supreme court litigator is, so i definitely have my work cut out for me, but, fortunately, the point i want to make is ultimately very simple, and that is this. there is no way for the supreme court to uphold the individual health-insurance mandate without simultaneously giving congress the power to enact virtually any other mandate of any kind, and such a result is contrary to the past history and precedent of the constitution, and also it is a very dangerous power for congress to have. the federal government has offered three arguments as to why they believe the insurance mandate is within the powers of congress. they say it is allowed under the commerce clause, the tax clause, and the necessary and proper clause, but all three of these arguments have the same weakness that if accepted by the court, he they would lead to a virtually unlimited congressional power, so i would like to start out with the commerce clause argument, which has been the one emphasize the most in the litigation so far. the commerce clause gives congress the ability to regulate both commerce, among several states, so right away, when you look at the text of the clause, it seems to be clear in order to be authorized by that clause, a measure passed to me to two requirements. first, it has to regulate commerce, and second, the commerce that it regulates must be interested. on these criteria, the individual mandate is 0-2. is not regulating commerce, as not having health insurance is not commerce, it is not regulating anything that is interstate either. moreover, the common sense interpretation of the clause is actually roughly, the way that the clause is interpreted by the supreme court during the first 150 years of our history. some people, especially today, indicate that the clause gives congress the power to oppose any measures that would have some effect on interstate commerce, but if that were true,render ths completely redundant. for example, in the same phrase, when a constitution gives power to regulate interstate commerce, it also gives the power to regulate foreign commerce and commerce with indian tribes. if the interstate clause, it would not make these completely superfluous -- it would make these completely superfluous and the same could be said for the others. i fully recognize the supreme court has expanded its interpretation of the commerce power well beyond its original meaning. some of these are badly misguided, but even the most extreme do not go far enough to justify the individual mandate. i think almost everyone would agree that the broadest costs so far, where they would bid the growth of medical marijuana, even in the case where it had never crossed state lines. i think that is a misguided decision, but even that does not go far enough to justify this mandate. it says the possession and growth of marijuana was a economic activity, and it defined in broadly as the and consumption of a commodity. not having health insurance, it is not a production of a commodity, consumption or distribution, so even that does not go far enough to get the government where it needs to go in this particular case. it turns out the only possible way to uphold the mandate is if congress held the power to impose virtually any mandates that has an economic effect, which is true of pretty much anything congress can compel us to do, so the government has argued health insurance is a special case in various ways, and the most common argument they have used is claiming health insurance is special because we have all used health care of some point in our lives, and that makes it different from most other products. they are shifting the focus from health insurance, which is what you are actually being forced to buy, to health care, which is a broader category. this can justify pretty much in the mandate of the kind. consider the example that has been used so often in this case. not everyone likes broccoli as much as i do, but everyone does participate in the market for food, which broccoli is just one part. the market for food is more difficult to avoid than the market of health care. try avoiding me, if you do not believe me. you will not be able to do so for very long. you could use the same mandate for cars. not everyone uses cars, but everyone participates in transportation. therefore, a car mandate could be justified. the federal government says this is a special case because in some instances health care providers are required to provide free services to those who cannot pay for health care. a question are rises. why is this difference constitutionally significant? the answer seems to be if you do not have a mandate, the free health care requirement creates an impact on producers. this is true, but it is also true of pretty much any government regulation that might reduce its the products below a level it ought to be. anytime i opt to not buy a product, but also has an adverse economic of fact -- economic effect on producers, and they failed to separate this from any other argument. the federal government argues on the basis of the tax clause, and they say the individual mandate is a tax and is authorized as congress of power to impose various taxes. why is it a tax? if you do not go by the mandate, you have to pay a monetary fund collected by the internal revenue service. if this is excepted, of any mandate would be permissible so long as the penalties for failing to obey was a fine. you could have a monetary fine for not buying broccoli or cars or anything congress could imagine. this is a rare case of near consensus into lower court so far. 15 of the 16 federal judges have rejected it, including several who have upheld it on other kinds of rounds. they have all held this is a penalty. it is a situation where the federal government tells you to do something, and if you do not do it, you have to pay a fine. if this is a tax and not a fine, the same goes with the penalty for jaywalking. if you read to pay a penalty for jaywalking that could be considered a tax. they have repeatedly distinguish between fines and penalties. as recently as 1996, they said the penalty is imposed by statute as punishment for an and this fits that definition to a tee. it is a fine imposed for an unlawful act or omission. i should mention i am not the first law professor to suggest this is not a tax cut rather of penalty. as are rather more famous law professor need me to it in 2009. are referred to the former university of chicago professor who barack obama who said, for us to say you have got to take responsibility to get health insurance is not a tax increase. i think the president is right about it, and i think it is not too late to instruct the lawyers to get in line on this particular question. lastly, the federal government defends its position on the basis of the necessary and proper clause, which is the focus of the very far wrote for the washington legal foundation. the necessary and richard m focus of the brief i wrote for the washington legal foundation. it gives congress the authority to implement and foundations necessary and possible to implement other powers in the document. it is important to recognize the original meaning of the cause of supreme court precedents are clear to the point and necessity and propriety are separate requirements. it is not enough for a measure to be necessary. it must also be proper. the supreme court has defined necessary as anything but might be convenient to implement another congressional power. they have not been so clear on defining proper. if proper means anything, it is that the measure is improper is the only argument that can justify it is one that would give congress and virtually unlimited power or other powers completely redundant. as james madison put it, what ever meeting this clause may have, none can be an event that would give an unlimited discretion to congress. a federal argument gives the unlimited discretion of madison says because the ninth congress. -- says the clause denies congress. the claim here that is made is that this is proper because the mandate affects the health insurance and health-care markets and therefore it is carrying into execution the power to regulate interstate commerce, but virtually any mandate to do anything can have some significant effect on interstate commerce. if you mandate the people to buy broccoli doubt will have an effect on food markets. if you mandate they buy cars, about will have us on the transportation market, so if you allow any other basis, there is an unlimited power to impose mandates of any kind whatsoever, and that is inconsistent with the standard of propriety. there is only a limited amount of time, so i cannot go into this in great detail, but this is an issue we focus on in a brief. i would note one more thing. among the founders, the one with the broadest conception of national power was alexander hamilton. hamilton said federal laws interfering with state property taxes or state inheritance laws would be unconstitutional because they would be improper under the clause. obvious but a federal law regulating that would have an effect on interstate commerce and might be convenient for regulating interstate commerce, but it is still improper, and that is a strong sign that even among the founders, those with a broad consumption of federal power they still believes propriety imposes important element. the last point i would make is this. lawyers and law professors are notorious for making arguments that may be clever but have no real place in the real world because these things would not actually happen. here the slippery slope to future mandates is a real danger because congress has a long history of imposing special interest legislation, and there are lots of lobbyists who would be more than happy to lobby for the opportunity to have a mandate that forces people to buy their products. lobbying by the health insurance industry is one of the forces but led to the enactment of legislation we see today. it is interesting that in the 2008 campaign when the individual mandate was first proposed by hillary clinton, then a candidate for rocco, was strongly opposed to it. he said -- candidate barack obama was opposed to it. he said trying to solve the problem by requiring people to buy health insurance is like trying to solve the housing problem by requiring the homeless to buy a house. i am not saying the president changed his mind between then and now simply because of lobbying by the insurance industry, but obviously special- interest power was one of many forces effectively to the legislation we are considering now, so ultimately, the power claim is inconsistent with the constitution, and if allowed by the supreme court, it would be a dangerous power for congress to have going forward. thank you very much. >> thanks, and i echo thanks to the foundation, which does a really terrific job of putting on these programs. i have to say how great it is in the middle of the night. on c-span there is always something to watch. addressing thisby question, if this is upheld, does that mean congress can enforce any of their mandate? i think it is important to look of the question of mandates. virtually all over the opponents think the states have the power to enforce this mandates. it is not totally foreign to our system. states can do it. that indicates it is not something outside the realm of permissible and legislative by activity. i would like to start by turning to the tax power. it has been a bit of the neglected part of the argument. it has been said the tax power is broad. that is a consequence of history. one of the principal flaws was that congress did not have the power to directly raise revenue itself. it had to send a request to the states. it did not work too well. the federal government did not get money, so one of the critical reasons was the need to provide clear power for the federal government to raise revenues, and the court has addressed the question of taxing power, and some things are very clear. if the taxing power is not limited by other enumerated powers. congress can tax things, but it cannot regulate. the fact the tax has an affect does not mean it cannot be upheld as a tax. the court has rejected the argument that a measure that has a revenue-raising purpose or a fact -- or effect cannot be held us a tax. the court has identified limits. it has to raise revenues, and it cannot violate the other protections of individual rights in the constitution. it is hard to say the mandate and the accompanying fee that has to be paid does not promotes the general welfare. there is a problem in health care, and this is designed to deal with that. it clearly will raise revenue. the revenue estimates are $17 billion. the estimate was $4,500, and the court said thought was satisfying the requirements. this is not a punitive measure. the court said the test for that is where the fine is in excess of the value of the tax. this is key to the income and relate soon return relates to what it would cost to insure that person's family. there is a limitation. the constitution says no capitation are direct tax maybe let it unless it is apportioned by population. but the court has interpreted that clause quite narrowly. only per person taxes and taxes on land have been found to fall into that category. here are the levy is specifically tied to income, it clearly does not. -- where the levy is specifically tied to income. the court's jurisprudence is quite clear that congress does not have to use the magic word tax in order for measure to be upheld under the taxing power. the court rejected that argument both in the context of the taxing power and in the context of other powers. there is a good reason why. remember, the court's role here is striking down a decision made by the people's elected representatives. that is a pretty significant power and there is a presumption of constitutionality. the presumption that the people's representatives action is constitutional, that should only be struck down a lesson is clearly beyond all congress's power. in many cases, it has upheld the statute on grounds that congress did not address -- the grounds that congress did invoke. by the decisions of the early republic apply this principle and upheld the statute there, creating the bank of the united states, by surveying a variety of constitutional powers, none of which were invoked. maybe of congress clearly does about a power, that might be a basis for the court saying congress specifically did not want to do this, but that is not the case here. this measure is in the internal revenue code. it is on your 1040 income tax form. it is enforced by the irs and is tied to your income. it would be quite odd to say congress specifically disavowed that power. for those judges to look at legislative history, it is most in need was. there are sometimes when a penalty is used and sometimes the word tax issues. what do the opponents say in response to what i think is a pretty persuasive argument on the taxing power? the principal argument is this. you cannot i hold this measure as a tax because of the way it is written. there is one section that says you must obtain health care insurance, and then another section says if you don't, you must pay this financial levy. so clearly there is a freestanding mandate that has to be upheld as the commerce clause enactment, and this other measure is not related or cannot be used as a tax because it is not a condition to their pre it does not say you must either purchase health insurance or pay the tax. the court addressed a similar question in the context of the 10th amendment in a case called new york against the united states, which was a case involving a federal statute, dealing with another very complicated national problem, the disposal of low-level radioactive waste. that statute said each state shall be responsible for providing for the disposal of low-level radioactive waste, in one section. then there were three other sections at specified some things that provide incentives, maybe some carrots and sticks is the way the court put it, to press the states to do what was in that section. the people who were challenging the act did you don't even have to address the constitutionality of those three carrots and sticks up close. there is a requirement that directly imposed on the states, that is clearly unconstitutional so the whole statute falls. the court said we are not going to do that. set and could understand this as a mandate standing alone, or you could look at the provisions together as a series of incentives. the court said we are going to do the latter, because we don't presume that congress legislates unconstitutionally and we will interpret a statute so it is constitutional. we interpret this provision as conditional on the carrots and sticks in order to a core that presumption of constitutionality. it seems to meet under the exact same argument that the court adopted in the new york case that is the way to pursue the provisions written here. even though they are written several, nothing happens to you other than the payment of the feet if you do not buy the insurance. so that are in practical effect, conditional. some opponents say this is punishment, but it is not. it is not a disproportionate financial levy. tied to income, not criminally in forced, none of the typical in this see it that we look for. >> political branches cannot say we are enacting attacks, and when the constitutional challenge is enacted, say we are invoking the taxing power to hold this measure. that will allow them to escape accountability. i don't think that is true. if the supreme court were to issue a decision this june saying we are only upholding this mandate because it is a tax, you would see lots of political accountability in the next election attempting to be imposed on people who voted for it. it seems to me the argument that there will not be political accountability does not hold water in the real world that we live in. i am not sure it is the core stock to worry about political accountability and supervise the political process in that way. even if it were, i think there will be a lot of political accountability if the court were to go down that road and the people who have to explain why they voted for something that turned out to be a tax and by imposing the tax was justified or not. let me turn to the commerce clause, because that is the principal field of battle, hopefully not insist the supreme court but has been in the lower courts. it is important to recognize that a lot of the arguments advanced by the other side is that the last 80 years of constitutional law and interpreting the commerce cause or wrongheaded, the principal argument is, regulate interstate commerce and if not interstate, we should throw this out, and a lot of the decisions that have ruled to the contrary or wrong. i think the court certainly could go back to the pre new deal era, but i do think the reality is that if those cases are accepted, as i think have to be, by the opponents of the statute, they have a very tough time. is there economic activity that is being regulated? there is. the decision to self insured, and judge sutton could very well in his separate opinion in the sixth circuit case upholding the mandate, where he said the decision to sell the insurer is an economic decision. he said self insurance and private insurance are two forms of action for addressing the same risk. one is no less active at -- and the other and both affect commerce. even if one believes that there is some activity in activity distinction that is embodied in the commerce clause, it is are to say that in this particular context where we are dealing with insurance as opposed to an actual purchasing decision, there is anything like inactivity. i do think the whole premise that there is some activity- inactivity distinction really does not hold water, as judge sutton intimated. it is inconsistent with the court cases and with the constitution. the constitution does not say by the way, inactivity is not commerce that is regulated. let's look at some examples. the bank of the united states is one. when congress created a whole range of economic activity when it created the bank, in more modern times it created fannie mae and freddie mac. we worry about the policy implications of that, but it created all kinds of commerce that did not exist before, and no one would say that is wrong. if we go back -- mr. children's we was going to be kept on the farm. it was not going to enter commerce, yet the court said it could be regulated. i think the activity-inactivity distinction, although verbally interesting, when you drill down into the meaning, it does not really have a lot. i would also step back and say, what were the framers really trying to do? it seems to me that are trying to delineate interstate commerce as an area and then say within that sphere, the federal government has the same plenary power that the states do. as i said before, i think everyone agrees that the state's could in fact enforce a mandate using the police power. once we are in the realm of interstate commerce, and nobody says that the health-insurance market industry, the health- care industry is not interstate commerce. obviously it is one of the biggest components of interstate commerce. it seems difficult to say that congress does not have that same kind of plenary power. >> i would like to start our return to the point with which i began the discussion, which is that all the arguments you have just heard and all the other arguments made by other people defending the mandate, how the implication of congress has virtually unlimited power to impose mandates. under the commerce clause, andrew just said if you are making a decision that has an economic effect that now falls in the commerce clause, the decision to do or not do anything has that sort of effect. i choose not to buy broccoli, that has an effect on commerce. if i choose not to buy a car, same thing. if and i choose not to wake up at a different time in the morning, later rather than earlier, if enough other people make a similar decision, that has an impact on economic productivity. it cannot be the case that the commerce clause extends to all economic activity, and economic activity is defined as any decision of any kind and has some sort of economic effect. that does lead us to the unlimited power that the commerce clause is not supposed to give congress and which the court has said repeatedly, even in modern times, has significant limits. it is important to recognize that although it is true, i disagree with a good number of the most recent commerce clause precedents, this case goes well beyond that. those cases described congress's power and under a broad definition of economic activity, the individual mandate still falls outside of it. enter brought the case of -- andrew brought up the famous 1942 case. i am not sure he characterized it entirely correctly. it was not a case whereny

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