Political and policy consequences if republicans win the house and or the senate. We have with us one of the founders of election watch. We will look for some of you after the fact. Im going to turn it over to chris who will introduce the panelists. A couple of pieces of business. We are going to have some presentations on big picture things, the house, the senate, governors, other things. We are going to turn to your questions. For those in the room, we will take your questions at the microphones. For those viewing from afar, we have a couple of ways you can pose questions. One is through emailing nate. Moore aei. Org. I will turn it to chris and we will begin. Chris of course, never tweet, as we know. [laughter] for your own sake. But we do look forward to have your questions. You are extraordinary lucky humans because i was thinking about this today. I do not think you could have a better group of experts then this lovely group of people. When hot takes are all around us, youre in for something good today. The reason youre in for something good today is because these people are thoughtful, smart, patriotic. They do not take any cheap shots, and they are funny. Through her work at echelon, she regularly advises government leaders on poland and has become one of the foremost experts on the millennial generation. It is Still Available in paperback . Just hardcover and ebook. She is the host of trendline. She is an onair political contributor at cnn and previously has been a contributor at fox news and abc news. You were a spring 2022 fellow at the institute of politics and public service. In 2013, she was named one of times 30 under 30 changing the world. That is cool. I am no longer under 30. [laughter] i was not going to say nothing about it. Sean is a nonresident fellow, but he has a home at the American Enterprise institute where he works on elections, american political trends, and demographics. He is the senior elections analyst for real clear politics. Before becoming a fulltime clinical analyst, sean practiced law for eight years. But he got over it, during which time he represented clients in a variety of settings. He has a law degree and masters degree in Political Science from duke and is currently pursuing a phd in Political Science at the ohio state university. When it comes to tracking this stuff and knowing this stuff, no one is better. Norm is a senior fellow america emeritus at the American Enterprise institute where he has been studying politics, elections, and the u. S. Congress for more than four decades. Previously served as the codirector of the brookings election reform project. He has been involved in political reform for decades, campaignfinance election reform and house and senate reform. He has played a part in creating the Congressional Office of compliance. He was elected fellow of the National Academy of the arts and sciences in 2004. You have read him everywhere. Foreign affairs l. A. Times, politico, on and on. He is also a contributing editor for the atlantic. In a New York Times bestselling author. Pretty cool. Ok. Here is what we are going to do. We are going to share with you the little specialties we have prepared. The chefs specials today. We will have a freeflowing conversation up here, but we are going to start with kristen, who is going to tell us what the heck is going on. What is going on . We are headed into a midterm where history tells us republicans ought to have a great night. You go back decades, if you were with a party out of power, traditionally headed into this midterm, you are poised to pick up seats. Voters get agitated. Whoever is in charge now are doing a garbage drop, lets bring in the other side. Republicans have a lot of historical winds on their back. They have an economy that is fueling an environment that makes it likely for voters to want to see change. Inflation being as high as it is, voters expressing the economy and cost of living is a major issue. In addition to anxiety about what is happening to my 401 k , that is hitting people in the pocketbooks and taking another look at the party currently not in power. Something i think in this election that is different, which makes it not a slamdunk for republicans is the fact that normally, the right track wrong track numbers would be a metric that would tell his republicans will have a great night. When you ask voters, do you think country is on the right or wrong track, they typically say things are on the wrong track. More of them are saying wrong track then we have been seeing in about a decade. They have hit their worst point early in the summer, got a little better, but the right track wrong track as a barometer would suggest the party out of power having a huge night. The difference is, you have a lot of people who are about democrats who are nevertheless saying i think things are on the wrong track. The reason they say things are on the wrong track are the opposite of why republicans say things might be on the wrong track. There is going to be a real pressure on commentators like us to come up with a unified theory of what is happening in this midterm. Is it inflation, is it abortion, is it immigration and crime, is it candidate quality is it gas prices . I would encourage all of you to resist the temptation to think it all comes down to one issue. Yes, it is the economy, stupid, is the line you can borrow from James Carville in the early 1990s. You can generally apply that here. I think it is about the insecurity, i think it is about americans feeling like economically they are not sure what things look like a month or two from now. They are not sure what it will cost to fill up their gas tank. They are not sure what their 401 k will look like. They want stability and security economically. In terms of physical security, they are concerned about rising crime. They are concerned about the border. They are concerned not necessarily about Foreign Affairs generally that is low in , the issue mix, but worries about, what if Vladimir Putin wakes up on the wrong side of the bed tomorrow . What happens if china decides they would like to bring taiwan back . What if these things start happening that leads to physical insecurity . The world and community as an unsafe place. Then, you have anxiety about our democracy itself. To what extent are we so divided . It is one of the only things i see impose that everyone agrees on is that we are all divided. Republicans believe voter fraud is rampant. People believe our democracy may be fraying and worry their rights may be at stake, whether folks are worried about roe v. Wade, their ability to live out their religious views, and so on. Anxieties, economic, physical , and anxiety about our institutions is leading voters across the board to feel unsettled and insecure. That is part of why my firm expects voter turnout to be absolutely skyhigh in this Midterm Election. Let me ask you about that. In the beginning, it seemed there was a consensus in the data that said republican intensity was beyond democratic intensity in the spring. It seemed like democrats caught up. Where do we think we are on the intensity gap right now . I think republicans have a tiny advantage. It is not nearly the kind of advantage that i think you would expect in a big wave election year. I do not believe the democrats feel complacent. I believe they feel under siege, under threat, and like their vote counts. I do think a big question mark is going to be Younger Voters. That is a specialty of mine, Younger Voters, there is data i emceeing that suggests they are not likely to turn out in as great of numbers they did in the 2018 midterms or at least as a proportion of the electorate may not be as influential. Which would be bad news for democrats. However, you are seeing Younger Voters more tuned in. Whether it is through social media or what have you, politics are more pervasive in their life. The extent to which democrats can hold together their coalition i think is a big question mark, Younger Voters being a big piece of that. One question on abortion and roe as a motivator, it seemed like that was overstated. I cannot tell. There is contradictory evidence. There were no is it women, independent women, who is being driven by this issue and how much are they being driven . That was a big driver of Younger Voters. The fact it has faded out of the headlines as an issue is part of the reason why you may be saying that. The reason for voting falling among Younger Voters. I think the narrative around ododds has changed the election. It may have been overstated, but i think another thing that has helped is if you had not had a rash of republican candidates stepping in on this issue. I believe perhaps last night in the Pennsylvania Senate debate, you have dr. Oz hand his opponent a quote around the issue of abortion that is likely to be on airwaves. I will allow my other panelists to dig into that race. I do not think republicans are out of the woods on that issue. I think they have blunted the damage it could have caused. My friend and colleague, john, is going to walk us through the house. John is going to give you the inside so you can go on your fanduel account and make a mint. Vegas would not be a crazy place to think about races up for grabs. Kristen did a good job laying out some big picture issues in terms of how big a wave this is going to be. I want to say a few things historically about what the house might look like. Then, delve into specifics. First, if the Midterm Election does go against president s party, that is a strong trend. Only three times since the civil war has the president s party gained seats. Those three times have been when the president has been dramatically popular, nearly 65 ratings for bill clinton and george w. Bush. Franklin roosevelt in 1934 i am going to stipulate was popular. Those are the only cases where you gained seats with a party in the white house. Other institutions, the senate does not follow quite as strongly. State legislators do because there are more races. The big point is, a president in the white house is usually not good for the Party Running for the house. As things are worse, as the president job Approval Rating is lower, things are worse. By that measure, all along last year and a half, we should be looking at what is a very good republican year. Joe bidens numbers are not very good. Kristin pointed correctly to the low point for joe biden, which was in the late spring. There was a drop even further down into the 30s of job Approval Rating. A little bit of a bounceback. Things are still not that great. There are contradictory trends that we saw over the summer, worries about abortion. Special elections that went one way, people looked at the generic ballot a bit and said, maybe it is not as good for republicans. I think you started to see while those may be factors, you start to see a return to the fundamentals. The number of seats that we are talking about that republicans are going to gain, the forecasters are upping those. That we are moving seats into the republican column. The place money is being spent is on races a contributor to us here had a column a couple of weeks ago have been seats that are pretty democratic. We saw in the last couple of days a number of democrats giving money to Julia Brownley and that is a district where joe biden won by 20 points. I do not think she is going to lose, but it is a place where you start to realize where people are worried about these outliers, Sean Patrick Maloney or katie porter. People like that who are in districts that are a little less democratic, but 12 or 13 points biden districts we move back a little bit, maybe not fully to where the worst of the worst Case Scenario for democrats, but i think we have moved back towards the fundamentals. I am more bullish for republicans than some forecasters. I think a 15seat loss for democrats would be a good day for them. I think they should be happy if they only lose 15 and therefore, lose the house. I think republicans are more likely to be in the 20s and a great republican night might start to flirt with 30, in the 30s. I think, generally speaking, we are going to see something more of the fundamentals that we saw back over the summer where we were thinking the fundamentals were looking one way, but these other factors were looking the other. A few things about where the seats are and what the house might look like in terms of the range of outcomes. First, where states republicans could gain more than one seat, there are quite a number of seats where it is possible if they do better. New york, pennsylvania, michigan, texas, nevada, oregon, virginia, and ohio plenty of , other seats with one seat they may be able to take. I know being a new englander originally that we have no republicans represented in the house in new england today. But there are actually four seats, one in each of four states. Maine, New Hampshire, rhode island, and connecticut. They may not all go republican but are being contested. That is an interesting i think point. You will see a republican at least in new england. And then, think about where some more democrats are able to win on trump territory and where republicans are likely to win on biden territory. I mentioned Julia Brownley, probably not going to happen the , but the outlier. But certainly republicans with david lilio in rhode island. Those are seats that are pretty democratic. Democrats i think might hold on to their most republican seats. In part, that is because of the electoral system, the top four system that they have at the plus 10 seat that the trump won by 10 seats. Jared golden might hold on by six, marcy kaptur at about a plus three. Trumps seat. They all could lose, but some may hold on. For the most part, those are the only seats in trump territory that democrats have a chance to win. If we thought about the gop winning all of the seats, they go up to about a biden plus seven. Biden won by 4. 5 points. That would be a 2. 5point swing to the republican side versus neutral, that would be a 235 or so seat gain or result for republicans. 235 to 200. Could be higher or lower, gives you indication of the types of seats we are looking at that will be in play. Finally, a few thoughts about women, africanamericans and hispanics in the house. Today, we have 123 women in the house. Most are democrats. 91 democrat, 32 republican. On the democratic side, i think that is probably going to be about the same. It could go down, not likely to increase. Republicans are likely they have a floor of about 30, there could be up to republican women 43 in the house. That would be a very good night. Certainly possible. Africanamericans are 56. All but two are democratic. On the democratic side, we will likely see a little bit of an increase, perhaps one or two. On the republican side, an interesting story. We are very likely to see at least four Republican House members africanamerican. ,four to seven African Americans. By far, the highest number of African American republicans in the house. Finally, hispanics, i think we will see the largest increase. The large, growing demographic. There are 40 hispanic members in congress today. I think we will be close to 50 at the end of the day. 29 are democrats. There will be more democratic hispanic members, a minimum of 30. Maybe up to 37. The current 11 hispanic members on the republican side are likely to increase. Certainly they will keep nine but i think up to 16. You will see changes. I think changes will be more to the republican side, but you will see underlying changes. How much did the reverse coattails of joe biden as he was listening to republicans talk and they are thinking about those years for them like 2010, 63 seats. They had in mind at the beginning a big year. Part of the reason those numbers do not seem to be in reach is because in 2020, republicans did better than expected and one won back some seats that they had lost in 2018. When you look at the universe of seats that are really in play, what are we talking about . 30, 35, that range . You are right, the fact republicans are within spitting distance of the 213 if you count vacancies, that is a high watermark, meaning some seats are already taken. I think we are probably talking about a universe of 45 or 50 seats, some of those are outlying. They are mostly on the democratic side. But there are a few places where republicans are struggling to hold on. Perhaps in ohio. Maybe sean can talk about that. I think it is a smaller Playing Field and the realignment we had, it took a long time. But very conservative Democrats Holding republican seats which were some seats that lost in 2010, 2014. Those are not there, either. I think the Playing Field is smaller, but the wave is decent for republicans and therefore will lead to some gains. I think that is a very right analysis. That is a smart man. Im going to make you listen to me about Gubernatorial Elections. But you got a free lunch, so that is how it goes. I love Gubernatorial Elections, it is my favorite because they are one of the weirdest, last, weird things in politics. The governor of maryland is one of the most popular governors in the country. He is a republican in a blue state, the same goes for the governor of massachusetts. The governor of kansas, which is about as republican as mississippi, is a democrat. She is not favored to win, but she is in a tossup race. It is a very tight race. People are still able to defeat toxic partisanship on the gubernatorial level. Sometimes, it is because as a West Virginian, i can say the governor from the other party goes to prison, and you need somebody from