you'll see hear the region, the light area to the north and east. and iraq to the south and west. we have this middle area, that is roughly. we know what the green line -- that is an area that is disputed. it disputed. the empire between the arab and kurdish people of iraq. they have fought off and on. they have lived at peace at tim times. in the agreement that the kurds signed in 1970. reclaiming over and again, this is the evidence for it. you can create a list of that evidence. >> to be a part of because of the president evens of oil and gas which started to be exploited, the issue has become difficult. >> the federal government controls other parts. the line that divides the kurdish and iraqi troupes. you have check points. we will move past the check points and you freely cross into territory. not necessarily the kurdistan region. the resources have grown and i've seen the un i lateral steps there are two dimension that's are twoing to play this year. the second dimension is a regional one. they do not want an independent kurdistan. they want it to be weak and stable. they have no interest. turkey does not have an interest and is not able. they fear they are a stable iraq. the rest of iraq is going to be unstable. they don't want to be that stable and blossoming that it might start to act on the situation to be independent. they play the difficult game of keeping kurdistan stable by weak. moreover what these states also want especially turkey is part of those resources. it is access to oil and gas inside the kurdistan region. if they do have oil and gas, the more south and southwest you go from the region into the territories. the better the quality of oil and the larger the quality of oil and gas. that's why we show you the third map. we'll put all of this together. >> we have a map that shows the region in the beige color. you have the rest of iraq in white. the way you see it, it's in white. that showed a disputed territory. exploring that the area is hugely rich in oil and gas he is eager to diversify and have a source for hydrocarbon. through turkey the med terrainian port in the rest of the world. happy for it to come from any part of iraq, connecting sort of the case to turkey along to the coast. this is a pipeline that connects to that pipeline. turkey is willing also to take calls from the kfrp urds. so far, the issue is who has control over this oil. is it the federal government or the kurds. we want to take oil from the kurds because it doesn't want to give them that kind of strength. that means they would of to comprimise in baghdad. ñ5ç that is the. that is sort of the tiff of the modern history since the defeat of the revolt in the 1970s, there have been two major parties. the k. d. p. that is now headed by the founder's son. it has been the union of kurdistan which came from the k. d. p. in 1976, which is led by talabani who is now the president of iraq. these two parties have been at ledger heads at many times. in a position in kurdistan in the form of two lists. which ran a list that came in third. after the top list, which was the kurdistan list. now what is important is that this original split between kdp that has never been overcome and between the leadership. it is acú symptom of the discontent. also within the puk about the close alliance with the kdp. also, importantly, the kdp viewing with trep i had dags. it maid lead to a relationship of becoming a protector of turkey to replace the united states as a main protector of the kurbes. they don't see thing that's way. they are more distance from turkey and close for iran in many ways. they have a stronger sense that their relationship, it has to be resid resided. the ground leader is explicit. the territory, which is a part of the region. not any different. this split between the kdp, the political parties and many of those is significant of the conflict is going to play itself out in the coming here easy specially as we are going to approach the time when the united states will destroy its troops. three things going on. one is the u.s. troop withdraw. maybe the announcement of the troop withdraw preceded by a surge. need from the withdrawal of the disputed territories. preceded by a mini surge. that was announced yesterday, the additional deployment of the american troops in order to bring down tensions between baghdad and other places. this is a stop gap measure, clearly aimed at reducing tensions. it's not a solution to the problem of the disputed territory. worse, it could make the parties on the groundy dependent when u are going to take the american troops out. your solution lies in the political process. just like the surge in 2007-2008 made remarkable progress in the military domain but fails to reach the progress in the political field it may well happen in the process. that's the second issue. there is a un-led process. this has a process. it came out with a big report which now has not been made public but is starting to circumstance u late in ever wider circles. you will have a copy on your desk soon. good luck to you. this report is remark nl for the in depth research for display on the social, economic and political history of the individual. this report was released in april. this has been given a little bit new life which is sputtering along without any energy. prime minister mall maeki went with the charge. at the end of the day, the place that the kurds have claimed for a long time but it is a place where oil really is. not at the kind of time table that people in washington like, meaning it would take years. probably what is possible and necessary in order to restore confidence in all the part parties we now have an administration that wants to pull out of iraq. they are at ledger heads. the up shot may be chaos. usually the areas of conflict and understandably so. the rhetoric between the krg and government went sky high. he may well do so again in the legislative elections as a way of presenting himself as a leader. the message goes over particularly well with an arab office in iraq. he wants to create the parties. he needs to do this. now, he has to transform his position into the strongest leader of the strongest party. that means he has to reach out to the kurds. there are very if you kurds that have any love for the arab nationalism. that is hurting tremendously in the past. the dimension starting to play itself out may be the a text by the federal government to reach out to the elements of the kurdish national movements. i don't know what will happen on that score. already, they have said it's going to run separately in the national elections. it does not want to undermine the unity as it comes from the federal government. that will be occupying some 38-41 seats. that will push the kdp and the pok towards the openness, which is not a bad thing. this remains an open territory. our sense is that this time line is bass you cannily a year before the draw down and it is too short to accomplish this. once american troops pull out of the area. i can assure you, the conflict is almost inevitable. that could lead to an all out conflict. we should be very careful. then we go back to the neighboring states. they want the access that turkey provides to the outside world, europe and the united states. they have of course, the truck if turkey were to gain access freely to oil and gas of the north, generally. then turkey would act to protect access to the oil and gas. the kurdss will gain control in the resources over turkey and the united states. already, i'm not predicting this inch. we have to be careful. you see the infrastructure is already separate between these areas. the contracts work with the pok go to the areas and the pipelines are separate. there is a push on the ground toward separation. i want to leave it at that. i'm sure you have many questions. thank you for that insightful analysis. i'll begin by asking you a question about occur cook. where do things now stand? are there hard liners that wish to elaborate. >> thank you. laying out a process resolving the #hstate. that process envisioned origi l originally something called a normalization. the census and ref dumb. it didn't simply because baghdad was not interested in doing this. why is it not being implicated. stepping in and beginning the alternative process of adjudicating the district. but in the reports released in april, it made clear a state in the bounds of the constitution. it made it clear in articles 140. the constitution doesn't spes fie what kind of ref dumb is to be held. it just says it should be held. 9 un is staying forget that kind of referendum. they would ask, do you agree, yes or no with our guidance and that agreement is a comprimised agreement. once you have such an agreement because they are in savior of it. it doesn't hatter. it's a smart way of dealing with things. this is at least to a way that would lead to a peaceful conflict. it is not off the a againeda. it is just not eminent. >> i am not an optimist when it comes to kurdish. things not"jz too late to revis thing that's happened in 1923, a protected roll in north iraq. the bitter enders this do flair up from sign to sign. the relationship there, thank you. jo leaders to come with the road map. >> we can maybe take steps against them that they may not say that. there on the party because they could supply the kdp and pdk. what they cannot do is dislog things from the mountain. >> that said, there are other ways. we can take steps against the pdk. we no longer have that. that is a very powerful argument. this element is only part of that. it could carry this out in normaling iraq. other ways of dealing with it. i know these things are being discussed. turkey doesn't want to be scene negotiating. >> it is interesting that they still feel that they have to play inside iraq. here they have a government in baghdad that is not, clearly. i wonder if you could give us some thoughts on how these relations like anybody else could play. >> thepre dikment of having been politic up. the israelis for a long time were looking for partners in the region. there's no difference between the people. israel, you find a lot of support for ]d they like to have the suffering aspect and control aspect at the same time. that's a little unfair to them really. you should not equate god with oil. >> i asked them about it. they said in respect to 1970, i don't think there's a strong roll in kurdistan. it has difficulties and remains weak and fra guile areas. it is vulnerable to the neighboring states. they would say not against iraq but against saddam husain. when the kurdish parties escorted troops into the territory. the subject of my book, which is available in book stores. iraq says thank you very much. they don't do anything accept to send messages often. clearly, they don't want to fall. that would be much stronger. iran knows how to meddle in kurdistan and have supported groups it can do that. for now, it says turkey is doing all the heavy lifting, thank you very much. >> any questions from the press? >> ok. >> once an ambassador to iraq and now a scholar here. they remember the air force and have options. isn't there at least a strong incentive to try this list. they want to settle it early on. they don't come down to the main commands. is there any sign of comprimise from the leader. keep in mind they are originally from that area outside. secondly, this falls within this area since the mid 1970s, so we have the eefktive control this leads them to shout more loudly. that's the way from drawing support away. that conflict plays itself out everyday and is very, very different. that conflict is not eñhelping. i think now the leadership made the lodership in leading. the state institution remains. there's no will to resolve the conflict between the insurgents or you can see him and the supreme council. it's just too much of a mess. based on that assumption, it's too late. we'll have to live with it. first of all, iraq is not lost. secondly, if you are going to take the position, you are definitely not going to comprimise now. i think the challenge is for. we need to work out an accommodation with baghdad at this stage. maybe making a comprimise to the territory. >> combining two of their questions, what should the priorities be and in your opinion, would those have changed. we don't know who will form the government. this issue on who. you didn't pull your weight. you lost all these votes and no we are coming into the parliament. we are not going to give you the 50%. you could see an option coalition in being the largest for the government. the puk may be in some position. people take over and it may not see all the positions they may not be entitled to. they may be in a strong option in parliament. this is the a againeda item that the option want they have always talked about things and made it clear. they have seen little actual change. this is for the defeat in some ways which lost so many and lost in the humiliating flow. that was the usual problems. it was the wise thing to do. this was a useful exercise. when we need most of all is the dem trat yik institutions. there are so many factors that could throw spater in the wheels. we can hope that they will have the space. they could not cheat the way they did because the kurds have the way in the dpswest. >> from the new american foundation. i wanted to ask you a question about the kurdistan front and the national election. they had good ties with the supreme council. looking at how they can align themselves to the politics. lc would they be more inclined to support. the kurds always rued a time. they fought together with the council it is hard to fade now of course. secondly, the kurds want maximum autonomy in iraq. with the entities. now we are going to see new alliances emerging. that will be tricky be)]x nobody will get them much of anything on kirkook. needing some to make these new coalitions against each other. they are going to give something, they have to do. i see a lot continue unhappiness up ahead on that thought. >> thank you, sir. thank you for your presentation today, sir. my question is looking at the nineva province. since the soony-lead gathering took power earlier in the year, there's been some serious scrapes do you see a need for a mediator? if so who? >> there's definitely a need for mediation. this has occurred on different levels. let's take it all together. the various parts of the government and parts of the army and at the military level. the areas where the police operate. >> calling for deployment of the u.s. troops. now the need seems to be the greatest. sufficient willing back and forth all the time. trying to calm things down when there's a little spatnp operati and going into control. it is possible. after the up rising was crushed. this was an organization. building confidence on the ground. i'm not saying we need an envoy or anything. >> our time is up. thank you so much for coming. thank you. >> frank mankiewicz. q and a, tonight on c-span. . . . >> next on c-span, "washington journal." it will concern political news in the healthcare debate. after that, our ars