I am really looking forward to hearing substantive talk today about both candidates and their economic policies and not some of the other things people in my profession at the been sent talking about the past week. Mark halperin has great guests lined up, and it will be fantastic. I will bring up the executive Vice President of the Peter Peterson foundation. Thank you guys so much. Have a great event. [applause] guys so much. Have a great event. [applause] thank you soi much for coming this morning. My name is loretta ucelli, and i am the executive Vice President of the peter g. Peterson foundation. We are a nonpartisan organization, and our mission is to educate and engage americans in the nations longterm fiscal challenges. And find solutions that help us achieve and maintain a prosperous and growing economy. We believe that longterm debt is a critical issue for the economy. Whatever the issue is that you care about, education, the environment, national security, our ability as a nation to deal with it is grounded in addressing our longterm fiscal challenges. We also believe that debate, discussion, and dialogue are critical in this president ial election and thats why we are , a very proud and enthusiastic sponsor of events like this with bloomberg politics. We are certainly looking forward to this mornings discussion with a range of policy experts. And with everything going on in the news, i think theres a lot more to talk about as well. And im sure that mark will take us through all of that. But thank you for joining us, and it is great to be here for this discussion. [applause] announcer ladies and gentlemen, please welcome to the stage Mark Halperin, managing editor bloomberg politics, host of with all due respect, and bloomberg television. Mark halperin so were going to the big policy discussion today but thats not all were going , to talk about because the question of whose policies are going to be thought about is treated seriously come january is hanging in the balance. I was in lakeland, florida, yesterday at 6 00 covering donald trump, and between the time i left that event to come here and now, a lot has happened thats going to impact this race in ways that are not currently knowable. So Ken Goldstein, my colleague , is going to, and we are going to talk a little about what is happening in the news. And we will dabble in some of that with everybody else, but we are mostly going to have a discussion of the themes and issues the Peterson Foundation does so well on, and they are obviously one of the few groups i would say sadly but thank god for them that is always going to inject substantive discussions into what is happening. I am actually relatively optimistic no matter who wins the white house over who controls congress that well see we are going to see a flurry of substantive activity on fiscal issues and Economic Issues in the beginning of a new administration, the new congress. Because theres actually a fair amount of agreement about what are the right issues to work on. We will talk about that, but we first, will talk about whats going on in the news. I want to a few to get volunteers to just watched Donald Trumps twitter account during the event and tell me anything that goes on because any time i am moderating a discussion like this, there is a chance something will be overtaken by events in 140 characters or so. Ken goldstein, professor a cross, he is disciplinary genius about polling and advertising and now hopefully an expert on allegations of Sexual Harassment too because thats what were going to start. Thank you. Kenneth goldstein thank you very much for having me. Mark halperin friday morning donald trump was behind. , he had a plausible path to about 265 electoral votes. No obvious path to to waited 70 path to 270, but once he gets to 265, you were within hailing distance. Since then weve had the access access hollywood video. We had the debate and now weve , had this latest round of allegations. So if youre the Trump Campaign, just talk about, theres very limited public polling. Bloomberg has a poll in pennsylvania that shows trump doing very badly, but hes been doing very badly in pennsylvania , and their Electoral College calculations do not hinge on pennsylvania. If you are the Trump Campaign now is it possible to get good , data to figure out where you stand, or are things moving too fast . Kenneth goldstein there is also the question about whether they invested in the infrastructure to gather that data. But when you were just saying you want a couple people here to keep an eye on Donald Trumps twitter account while were talking, mark was not joking. Right . I mean actually on friday, it seems like a long time ago, i was on the set about to talk to mark when the trump news broke. People were screaming in my ear. I was actually out in san francisco, and the blue angels were out there, and theyre like zooming by, and car alarms were going off. And i am like wow, what im , going to talk about . I was going to talk about the pennsylvania ad by. You have heard Michelle Obama say at the convention and in and then Hillary Clinton said, when they go low, we go high. So when things get crazy, i get boring. Mark halperin use a little boring. Kenneth goldstein let me be boring. At the end of the day, elections are about what the shape of the electorate looks like and how those different segments performed. It is always a little embarrassing as a political scientist. We spend all this money, determine democrats vote for democrats and republicans vote for republicans. Thats the big finding if you remember that from your intro to american politics course. So when you have two candidates are so deeply unpopular we can talk about how unpopular donald trump is, and he seems to be coming less popular. Hillary clinton is also the second most unpopular person to ever run for president of the united states, to be a major party nominee. So this race sort of devolved to a generic democrat versus a generic republican. And when you have that, democrats have about, depends on what turnout is, but between 7 percentage point advantage in the shape of the electorate. Donald trump needs to maximize republican loyalty and needs to win independence by independents by significantly won than met romney independents. Do we think things happen in the last couple days that are going to maximize republican turnout, minimize democratic turnout, make republicans more loyal and get swing voters to swing to trump in a way greater than romney got them . And i think the answer to that is unlikely. I think we can see some movements over the last whatever it is, 28, 27 days here that make this a threepoint race or fourpoint race, getting into fieldgoal range. Since everyone seems to be using sports analogies this week, although different sorts. But currently we are not there. Even when trump was having a little bit of movement before the first debate and seemed to have stabilized things before friday in the second debate, he was still not ahead. And as you said, it still would have been an inside straight to get to 270 Electoral College votes. Right, Mark Halperin right, so picking a fight with the speaker of the house who is a member of his own adopted party, is it possible that could help him with at least a piece of appealing to independents . Maybe at the extent of losing some republicans. Ken goldstein it depends what you mean by independents also. This is a big squishy concept. Many of you are involved in politics and no that the true number of independents is probably like 10 of the most, not the 30 or 35 that you see in most polls. So maybe it swings some of those disaffected republicans who are Tea Party Folks who dont want to say they are republicans, so they fall into the independent category. But at the end of the day, thats not the path to 270, thats not a path to 50 plus one. Mark halperin is the strategy begun at the debate and according to our colleague josh green, going to continue today of highlighting bill clintons personal life something that can allow them to consolidate support amongst republicans . To get that piece of it done . Ken goldstein i think thats a possibility. Weve not had a lot of public polling. And if i can get to your phone, i can see the text you have about the internal polling. So you are going to move that away. [laughter] Ken Goldstein we dont have a lot of public polling. Trump is still getting to support you see these stillnes trump is getting massive republican support. It is not high. It is the 70s rather than the high 80s, and that matters. So i think the continued focus on the clintons gets him that republican support back up to the high 80s. He needs that to be in the 90s. He needed to turn out to be high, and he needs to be winning independents. Theres been a lot of this analysis. Everyone became an expert on white people in the last month, especially like white people in pennsylvania. No one here has ever been to western pennsylvania unless you were driving through the driving through. Everyone became an expert on white people in western pennsylvania. Theres not enough of them, is the truth. When you talk about missing white voters in places like ohio, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, there are missing white voters. The problem is for republicans is they are mostly dead. They are missing white voters from 10, 20 years ago. Didnts not enough that turn out that will turnout in the president ial election. Mark halperin lets talk about the mystery of the Republican Partys place with the electorate. A lot of hand wringing if they lose the president ial. They will have lost the popular vote in six out of seven, and yet lots of states have , republican governors including a lot of blue states. They control both chambers of congress, they control lots of state legislatures. Take wisconsin a state you know , well. How can a state that elects scott walker discover three times basically a very conservative guy with policies that are opposed by labor unions and lots of groups on the left, how could that state be an impossibility for the Republican Party at the residential level . President ial level . Ken goldstein thats a really interesting question. Not that your other ones were not as well. Mark halperin up my game. Ken goldstein even in high turnout state like wisconsin, you have a million more people voting in a president ial Election Year than a midterm Election Year. I think its understudied by nerds like me is the difference between the composition of a midterm electorate and a president ial election electric. Remember my big brilliant political science, democrats vote for democrats, republicans over a couple cans . Republican . 7 , 8 ts have a 6 , advantage in president ial Election Year nationally and in a state like wisconsin republicans, even republicans have a percentage point advantage. So the republicans have lots to figure out at the president ial level, but at the midterm level, democrats need to figure out how to get those drop off voters. Young people, nonwhite out to the polls, or you will continue to see republican state legislatures, republican governors which also have an impact on the u. S. Congress because they are the ones drawing the lines for the Congressional Elections as well. Mark halperin right. Tell me what you think Donald Trumps floor and ceiling and in the popular vote are right now. Ken goldstein i think Mark Halperin the fourway popular vote. Ken goldstein i think the floor is 37, 38, and the ceiling is 42, 43. A very narrow range. Mark halperin so 43 he cant , win basically what youre telling us. Ken goldstein i think if you have i think hillary wins by five. Mark halperin if he gets down to 37, does that mean the republicans lose the house or not necessarily . Ken goldstein when things go crazy people talk about theres got to be a wave or not a wave and to talk about the way wave too early. When these things happen, mark and i first met at abc many, many years ago. I think we met in a midterm election. When crazy things start happening is when it is the last weekend, and you are like that , race is competitive. So i think it would be difficult for the democrats to take control of congress, but if you see a complete explosion, weve already had explosions, i will not say complete explosion of the Trump Campaign, it may bring some seats into play. But whats been interesting is the republicans are holding on in some of these senate seats. I would not have thought i would have a conversation with you today where, i cannot imagine ron johnson wins in wisconsin but Charles Franklin has a dust , bowl, within two. Mark halperin our pool today shows donald trump losing badly, double digits in pennsylvania, and yet pat toomey is within the margin of error as well. Ken goldstein exactly. Mark halperin take a minute to explain how that could be. At a time when people say there is not ticket splitting, theres ticket splitting. Ken goldstein at the time where theres not ticket splitting, theres ticket splitting. Mark halperin and then tweak that. Ken goldstein and republicans vote for republicans. Listen, if i was the republican , and i think what you will see in ron johnson, he will basically start airing ads, and people will start airing ads on his behalf saying going to lose the presidency. If you want to have a check on Hillary Clinton, you need to vote for me. Either way because i cannot talk about ads. I had written off wisconsin for ron johnson. He had close to a hundred thousand dollars i have not looked at the poll, that they must have had a poll that was consistent with what charles was saying. Mark halperin we scratched the surface but thats all were , going to get to do today. Thanks. Ken goldstein. [applause] so we are going to move on. We are going to talk about some policy and some economics, and our first person who is going to join me up here is Peter Navarro. He is a business professor at the university of californiairvine and economic trumpsto donald president ial campaign. How are you . Thanks for coming. Im going to start off by asking you about the news but on this level. You are a guy that cares about ideas. You support a candidate do you who you think will be the best president. When you see stories like weve seen lastly, allocations, how does that make you feel . Peter navarro i love the headline of the post today. Did you read that yet . Mark halperin which story . Peter navarro emails, wikileaks. I dont how you can start a conversation about whats going on without the bigger story of the wikileaks. We are going to see a constant stream of emails that are going to basically undress Hillary Clinton before the voters of this country and exposure as a expose her as a corrupt and incompetent official who is micromanaged by people inside her organization. And wikileaks are beautiful. Let me give an example, because we are going to talk about the economy today. One of the things in economy is trade. The 2012 south korean deal, this was all hillarys baby. She went around asia as secretary of state promising the American People that that deal was going to create 70,000 new jobs. The Peterson Institute by the way was part of the think tank apparatus that gave her the analytics for that. Ok . What do we know now . We know that deal cost 95,000 jobs, mostly in the swing states of ohio, indiana, illinois. Our exports did not move a bit. That needle did not move to South Carolina south korea, but our imports would off the chart. We doubled our deal with south korea and wikileaks, this is beautiful. Its like weve got John Podestas emails, right, and her foreignpolicy advisor is warning her not to touch the south korean deal in public because it would quote drive them nuts, right . And this is whats going on at least from the Trump Campaign looking at that. Its corruption versus allegations, and youve got to talk about it. And the Peterson Institute i love being here really, because the Peterson Institute has been the leading think tank on globalization, and they have been wrong every time, before they were even the Peterson Institute. There were economists who told us nafta was going to give us 200,000 new jobs. Right . What did we do . We lost 850,000 jobs at our and our deficit with mexico went from zero to 60 billion a year. The Peterson Institute told us that china going into the wto was going to the last 15 years our average and Median Household Income has increased by what . Zero. And our growth rate has gone from 3. 5 which we entertained from 19472001, the 1. 9 present 1. 9 . That is 1. 2 million jobs you dont create. You do that for 15 years, youre in trouble. Now the Peterson Institute is telling us that Transpacific Partnership is going to provide us the same kind of goodies for the American People. We are not buying this at the Trump Campaign. The American People are not buying it and the swing states are not buying it. And emails are really revealing about this. This will thing about how Hillary Clinton speaks, ok, lets suppose you folks ar