we begin this hour with a very important change in the presidential race. according to our brand new cnn/orc poll, a majority of the nation's voters now say they want to re-elect president obama. take a look at this. the president has 52%. he's seven points ahead of mitt romney who's at 45%. just a month ago the president in our poll was ahead 49% to 46%. significantly the president now according to our latest poll is above 50%. our polls also show what voters think of mitt romney's potential vice presidential picks. let's bring in our national political correspondent jim acosta. he's taking a closer look at all of these numbers. >> that's right. >> at least on the surface, should bring a smile to the obama campaign. >> and perhaps a warning to mitt romney and his campaign to go big in the vice presidential search with mitt romney heading out on a potential rollout of his running mate. the results on the veepstakes are even more fascinating. the two men that seem to be the safe bets in washington are not the top choices in their own party. with perhaps just days to go before mitt romney makes his vice presidential pick, the conventional wisdom in washington has narrowedit down to the two ps. tim pawlenty and rob portman. >> it's an honor to be considered. it's -- it certainly would be an honor for anybody to be considered. >> reporter: widely considered the safest choices of the bunch, the two ps are saying all the right things. >> i'm in the senate. i just got elected two years ago. >> reporter: as a new cnn/orc poll, republicans want a flashier pick like the gop's rising star marco rubio, the bombastic chris christie or conservative heartthrob paul ryan. all at the head of the pack. why? likability. >> in the end nobody votes for vice president. >> reporter: among all americans the new jersey governor has the highest favorability numbers of the seven men in the poll followed closely by the florida senator. name recognition is also a factor. the public still doesn't know much about pawlenty and even less about portman. >> governor mitt romney! >> reporter: it could be a warning sign for romney, who's about to embark on a bus tour that his campaign has hinted could be a running mate debut. the nominee could use some pi sdaz, his numbers are holding steady. >> president obama used his health care plan to declare war on religion. >> reporter: romney is trying to change that. by waging wars by requiring religious employers to cover contraception under the health care law. obama campaign notes those rules have since been relaxed. but according to our new poll, the vast majority of americans want romney to release more of his tax returns. and on the driving force of romney's campaign, the economy slightly more americans believe things will get better under the president. as chris christie put it this week, it's the candidate at the top of the ticket that matters. >> i mean, you really think people in the united states i'm not sure about this obama guy but i love biden. i'm voting for him for that reason. people don't do that. they just don't do it. >> our new poll also finds that despite a close race, two-thirds of americans believe the president will win re-election. and as for all of the nasty ads in recent days, the poll is split over whether the candidates have been attacking each other unfairly. wolf, just getting back to that factor of unknowability, if that's a word i could use about rob portman and tim pawlenty, very interesting in these poll numbers, 72% in the polls said they were unsure about rob portman. 58% about tim pawlenty. there's a lot of people out there who just don't know who either of these guys really is. and they might be on that running mate slot. >> on that specific issue, who the vice presidential running mate should be, there's only one person, maybe t, that would be mitt romney and ann romney, who will make that final decision and he has to really feel comfortable with his running mate because if he's elected president, that person's going to be vice president. they're going to be working very, very closely. so while the american public might not know a lot about rob portman, for example, the senator from ohio, i think he knows a lot about him and spent a lot of quality time with them as well. >> everything about the romney campaign and everything about mitt romney is data-driven and risk averse. they try to avoid risk at all costs. that's why everybody's going back to rob portman and tim pawlenty. they don't want another sarah palin situation. but our polling finds that if they want to spice things up out there, there are certainly other picks out there that the party, their own party, would like to see on that ticket. >> originally there was a push to get this announcement before the start of this bus tour. that could be delayed, right? >> well, we were thinking it could happen any time during this bus tour. it doesn't make much sense to do it while the olympics are goin on because the olympics are taking up so much of the public's attention right now. that's why folks are focusing on the last two legs of this bus tour, florida and ohio on monday and tuesday going through marco rubio's territory. there's plenty of time between the end of the bus tour and that convention. >> we'll see what happens. good work. thanks very much, jim acosta. let's dig a bit deeper now. let's bring in cnn senior political analyst ron bronsteen. ron, you're an expert on this subject. registered voters choice for president of the united states. a month ago obama was at 49%, now he's up to 52%. a month ago romney was at 46%, now he's down to 45%. how much should we read into what is happened over the past month in our own poll? >> well, i think there are two really important things in this poll. your 52 is a little at the high end for obama now. but, wolf, it's now the fifth national poll since mid-july that's put the president at 49 or above. and also in the last two weeks quinnipiac university with cbs and "new york times" have polled six of the key swing states. in five of them obama is at 49 or above. clearly the polls are converging that the president is moving right to or even above that magic 50% marker now. the second really important thing in this, paul, i think is if you look in the internals, the formula for victory for president obama is what you can call the 80/40 solution. four years ago in 2008 he won a combined 80% of all minority voters. if he holds that vote in 2012, he only needs 40% of whites, an incredible number really, to get to a national majority. look at your new poll today, 81% of nonwhites, 41% of whites and 52% overall, that is the formula for esident obama if he's going to win a second term. >> let me put more numbers up on the screen, ron. favorability. a favorable opinion of president obama, 56% say they have a favorable opinion of the incumbent president. 47% have a favorable opinion of mitt romney. what do those numbers say to you? >> this is really striking. in your poll president obama's approval rating reaches 50%. in most polls he's just under 50, which means to win re-election he has to convince some people who think he hasn't done a good job that they would prefer mitt romney even less. and what these numbers suggest is they are having success at that. that mitt romney has an unfavorable image net on balance in most polls where the public certainly in many of the swing states we've seen in the last few weeks where they've seen the advertising. and it does make you wonder. the focus of the romney campaign by and large has been raising questions in their advertising about president obama. they have not put a big push into defining mitt romney and what this suggests is that that has created a vacuum to allow president obama's team to make ground at doing that first. >> the economy is certainly issue number one, creation of jobs. we asked the question, the economy will get better with the president or if romney wins? look at this. in may 47% thought the economy would get better with the president. that has stayed the same. 47% right now. in may 50% thought economy would get better if romney wins, but that's gone down now to 45%. what happened? >> well, i think you probably have to look first of all at the effect of the advertising, i think, in the swing states. in other polling similar question, who is more concerned about the problems of people like you? mitt romney has lost ground on that as well. this is the core argument of course for the romney campaign. not surprisingly in a period of the longest economic downturn since the great depression that he can do a better job than the president at bringing us out of this. what this shows again is that it's not made as much progress as needs to in making the case. there are a lot of voters uncertain whether they want to give president obama a second term, but what obama and his team have successfully done so far is make the case to them, the uncertain voters, that romney is not the answer. as the ad said, he's more part of the problem than the solution. and that i think is clearly the challenge for mitt romney heading into his convention and beyond. >> ron brownstein, thanks very much. releasing more numbers later this hour. more analysis of our poll numbers in our next hour a well including a closer look at what voters think of some of mitt romney's potential running mates. standby for that. let's go to jack caffertright now. he's got the cafferty file. jack. >> wolf, more than 100 million people in the united states of america get welfare from the federal government. 100 million. according to the weekly standard, senate republicans say the federal government ovlappinderalmeans testedferent weare rams this fi of 100 million don'lu who only t ci security or icare. the most popular welfare programs are food stamps and medicaid. the numb of rpin both ese programs hass in 2000 to 45 million in 2011. and these 100 million people on welfare include citizens and noncitizens. in fact, a new report by the center for immigration studies finds that 36% of immigrant-headed households get at least one form of welfare. that's compared to 23% of native born american households. immigrants from some countries rely on welfare more than others. more than half of those coming from mexico, guatemala and the dominican republic get welfare. meanwhile, mitt romney's accusing president obama of loosening welfare requirements. a new ad charges the president with gutting the 1996 welfare reform law that requires recipients to work in order to collect benefits. but president obama's campaign, the white house and former president clinton, who signed the welfare reform bill into law, are all pushing back against the romney ad calling it false and misleading. our question is this, where is this country headed if more than 100 million people get welfare? go to cnn.com/caffertyfile, post a comment on my blog. or go to our post on "the situation room" facebook page. wolf. >> that's a huge number. i had not heard that number before, jack. >> startling. >> we have 350 million people in the country. 100 million get some form of welfare from the federal government -- this is federal government, not state, right? >> yeah, no. federal government. 80 different federal means tested welfare programs and 100 million americans are getting money from those programs. >> wow. okay, jack. good question. thanks very much. we're about to meet a man who says he can identify with the gunman who killed six people in a sikh temple in wisconsin. you're going to want to hear how he turned his life around and about this country's deeply disturbing subculture of hate. also, a new offensive against violent extremists and the tunnels they use to carry out their attacks. and later, spreading drought. it's continuing. the heat especially. and now an updated forecast for the rest of this hurricane season. informs you need to know. this is new york state. we built the first railway, the first trade route to the west, the greatest empires. then, some said, we lost our edge. well today, there's a new new york state. one that's working to attract businesses and create jobs. a place where innovation meets determination... and businesses lead the world. the new new york works for business. find out how it can work for yours at thenewny.com. ♪ i'd do anything for you, dear ♪ ♪ aything 'cause you mean everything to me ♪ ♪ i'd know that i'd go anywhere ♪ ♪ for your smile ♪ anywhere ♪ yes, i'd do anything ♪ anything for you ♪ humans -- sometimes life trips us up. and sometimes, we trip ourselves up, but that's okay. at liberty mutual insurance we can "untrip" you as you go throug your life with personalized policies and discounts when you need them most. just call... and speak with a licensed representative about saving on your policy when you get married, move into a new house... [crash!] or add a car to your policy. don't forget to ask about saving up to 10% when you combine your auto and home insurance with liberty mutual. security, coverage, and savings. all the things humans need to make our beautifully imperfect world a little less imperfect. call... and lock in your rate for 12 months. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? the fbi's now ended its on scene investigation of sunday's deadly attack on a sikh temple in suburban milwaukee. there it is right there. members of the temple have been allowed to return. and doctors say two of the three hospitalized victims of the shooting are getting better while a third remains in critical condition. a white supremacist, wade michael page, killed six people at the temple before he killed himself. cnn's brian todd is in wisconsin where he's been all week. he met with a man who used to believe many of the things that page believed in. what are you finding out, brian? >> reporter: well, wolf, while law enforcement officials try to ascertain some kind of specific motive for the shootings, we are getting some idea of the possible mindset, the lifestyle of the shooter, from a man who says he's been in those shoes. he never met wade michael page but says he can identify with him. >> i can identify with him because i was there. if it wasn't for things that very fortunate things that happened to me along the way and help i got from other people, many of whom i claimed to hate, i could have very easily ended up where wade page ended up on sunday. >> reporter: you could have done those killings? >> well,t's imptanto nderstandha wade p wa living in this realityof terror that he had created. >> reporter: a similar reality no says created for hielf a mnts ha linked on his arm. >> the ruins here are north ruins and says sort of a contraction of racial holy war. >> reporter: like page, he fronted a supremacist band, his was called centurion he says his parents wnot racist but that there was alcoholism and verbal abuse in his family which made him want to lash out. by age 16 he was moving in skinhead circles in milwaukee. he estimates he violently attacked people of other races or religions about once a week for four or five years. what's the worst thing you did? >> i've beaten people and left them for dead. >> reporter: he believes that if wade michael page was anything like how he was,age was suffering in his final days. >> his day-to-day life was nothing but terror. er wre he looked aroun im. gog to work, coming home from work. everything threatened him. when you are in that environment,here is no room for happiness. there's no room for joy. >> reporter: michaelis says he attempted suicide twice. but a seed was planted in arno to change. it came in a place he wouldn't have figured from someone he never could have imagined. he'd started going to mcdonald's on paydays. he says he came upon an older, kindly african-american woman working behind the counter who greeted him warmly as she took his order. >> i was really kind of disconcerted. it was hard when black people were very kind to me when i was trying to hate them. >> reporter: once after getting a swastika tattooed on his middle finger, michaelis went back into that mcdonald's and found himself trying to hide that from the lady, but she saw it. >> she looked me right in the eye and she said, i know you're a better person than that. that's not who you are. and i was like could i please have my big mac? and i got my food and i went and ate it and i never went back to that mcdonald's. >> reporter: you never saw her again? >> never saw her again. but 20 years later i haven't forgotten that moment. >> reporter: it led him to eventually move away from those groups and to start his own. an organization called life after hate dedicated to helping people transition out of that existence. i asked him what he'd say if a supremacist was sitting kro int from him now contemplating a similar horrific act. >> i would challenge them to think about what happens after that. and to think about someone in eie who love. >> reporter: michaelis says his real slap in the face moment came after a friend of his was murdered in a street fight. he believes sundayhoo were a slap in theacet help them. he wants them to go to his website. it's called lifeafterhate.org, so they can start to climb out that hole, wolf. >> powerful story indeed. thanks for bringing it to us, brian todd. in the wake of the mass shootings in wisconsin and earlier in colorado, our laters cnn/orc poll shows no change, repeat, no change in american's general attitudes towards gun control. 50% say they want minor restrictions or no restrictions at all. 48% want major restrictions or a complete ban. these numbers by the way are almost exactly the same as they were last year. this is the first poll done immediately after both of these most cent killing incidents. shrinking usership, big losses and missed payments. new fiscal hurdles and a deeper struggle out of the hole. and he's the fastest texter in the country. we're going to show you the teen with abnormally speedy thumbs. powerful and secure cloud. y that cloud is in the network, so it can deliver all the power of the network itself. bringing people together to develop the best ideas -- and providing the apps and computing power to make new ideas real. it's the cloud from at&t. with new ways to work together, business works better. ♪ [ male announcer ] you work hard. stretch every penny. but chances are you pay a higher tax rate than him... mitt romney made twenty million dollars in two thousand ten but paid only fourteen percent in taxes... probably less than you now he has a plan that would give millionaires another tax break... and raises taxes on middle class families by up to two thousand dollars a year. mitt romney's middle class tax increase. he pays less. you pay more. mitt romney's middle class tax increase. we believe small things can make a big difference.e, like how a little oil from here can be such a big thing in an old friend's life. we discovered that by blending enhanced botanical oils into our food, we can help brighten an old dog's mind so he's up to his old tricks. it's just one way purina one is making the world a better place... one pet at a time. discover vibrant maturity and more at purinaone.com. where we switched their steaks with walmart's choice premium steak. ♪ this is really good. like what i grew up with. onlyne out of five steaks is good enough to be called walmart choice premium beef. can i let you in on a secret? 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