tie. doesn't change the delegate count. mitt romney saying in his statement this, the results from the iowa caucus revealed a virtual tie. i would like to thank the iowa republican party for their careful attention to the caucus process. people might want to talk about that a little bit and recognize rick santorum for his strong performance in the state. great start to defeating president obama in iowa and else where in the general election. he leaves out a big thing which is, really, is he 34 points behind rick santorum and does it matter? let's get to shannon travis in des moines this morning and also bring in our panelists. let's start at the far end this morning. roland martin, finally, has joined us here. ron brownstein back with us, again. shannon, update us here on what happened and what the implications could be. >> this is a bombshell. let's say that. this was already, soledad, the closest vote in iowa caucus history and mitt romney, we thought he claimed iowa and then he went on to claim new hampshire. he was the first nonincumbent to claim both those races in history. this reverses that. does it reverse, would it reverse the general momentum that mitt romney has? let's think about this for a second. if this had been the case that rick santorum won the iowa caucuses by 34 votes, by all intents and purposes, mitt romney was still looking very, very well in new hampshire. yes, santorum might have had momentum going into new hampshire, but probably still going to be mitt romney's race and the race, still, as it is now, largely decided between those two people and maybe even throw newt gingrich in the mix in south carolina as it is now. would it change the story art? likely not, but it definitely changes the historical perspective of it now with mitt romney not having won both. being the first person to do that in history. >> all right, shannon, thank you. it's so interesting, he called it a bomb shell. >> i call it an embarrassment. >> it is, ultimately, how did that happen that they could possibly days later say and the way it happened. >> the standards of this election. this is a party-run process not uniform from precinct to precinct and in fairness of them, it's extraordinary close. i remember during the long recount in florida and election officials said to me at one point, we finally reached an election where the margin of victory was less than the margin of error and that is what we have, again, in iowa. we probably don't know who won iowa. >> the iowa gop telling us that at 9:15 there will be an official announcement. >> which is incredibly embarrassing. >> doesn't matter. >> i would disagree on shannon on one little thing. it's not a bombshell, but closer to the inconsequential aspect. he won two states in a row. >> here's what roland martin is doing. >> i'm used to that soledad. >> roland, why are you shaking your head? >> because, if you want to win the nomination, it does not matter about a narrative. it doesn't matter how many states you won. it boils down to 1-4-4-5. this is great for us because, oh, he won these states. the bottom line on that night we were all going gaga over iowa and how many delegates were at stake on that particular night? that's the bottom line. if you're mitt romney you're not going to worry about whatever news conference today. you're focused on north carolina and moving on. >> the race does not move on until they decide the number of delegates. by the overall sense in a party where the race is going. money shuts off way before some, very few races like obama/clinton actually go all the way to the end. i do not think this would have had a big effect. social conservatives generally do not perform there and probably would have changed the trajectory of the race. gives political junkies to say, six consecutive political races will be decided the same way. different candidate winning new hampshire and one of the two winning south carolina. the streak may live on. >> let's turn, let's talk about south carolina. since we're here and all, since we came eating grits, which, by the way, you guys should have the grits, amazing here. >> serving those grits. >> that's a south carolina thing. >> we could put them on. so, here's my question. let's look at some of these polls. let's do this marist/nbc poll. the key thing on the 16th, the debate. if you look at the average here, you could see that we have romney at 37% on monday and then by tuesday, then after the debate, boom, down 31. gingrich 22%. after the debate, up to 26%. that's, that's a big slide. >> well, you know, you can usually tell what campaigns are thinking by what they do. the fact is the way that the romney campaign has been targeting gingrich they don't believe the race is as comfortable for them as both the cnn/"time" poll. >> if you look at the cnn/orc poll it shows that gingrich is at 33%. >> very similar to the overall of the marist. but the campaign is not behaving. having said that, the basic denamic really incapsulates the entire republican race in one snapshot. the basic story is that romney in south carolina is consolidating the center of the party more than anybody is consolidating the right of the party against them. if you look at evangelicals versus nonevan yegelicalnonevan. no one is getting nearly that much of the evangelical vote. same pattern with the tea party. it's divide and conquer. >> and with these, talk about bombshell and we'll talk about bombshells all morning. newt gingrich has a couple bombshells that might be exploding in front of him. >> just two? >> just two today and maybe the jimmy carter quote out of piers morgan interview where we were talking about yesterday. sort of the racial coding. jimmy carter was a little more blunt about it, that would be one and his ex-wife is now talking to abc news and they're going to release this morning part of that interview. roland, what kind of impact will that have on someone like newt gingrich. >> the last thing you want in the final 48 hours or let's say 72 hours of a campaign is to be talking about something that has nothing to do with the economy and has nothing to do with newt gingrich is a true conservative. >> the last thing you want ever in the history of oforever is your ex-wife doing an interview, ever. >> especially when she really wasn't that cool with you in the "esquire" article last year. >> that is a point, though. most of what she says will echo what has already been out there in the "esquire." coming out right on television right at the end is never helpful for a candidate. needs to mobilize social conservative voters the most skeptical of romney. having said that, i think we've reached the point where voters have shown over and over again they recognize that all of us are flawed and all of us have moments we don't want to read about on the front page of the papers. >> at some point you spend your energy and your day, even if you're swatting off things that people heard about before and even if it's only reporters that care and the general public doesn't care, that's how you spend your day. the daughters of newt gingrich sent a letter to abc news because they're sort of like the timing is really unfair and suspect. what do you think of the timing of this interview, you know, being released now, which is a day before, the morning of the debate, but two days before the actual -- >> look, 15 years ago "newsweek" sat on the story and didn't release it and put it up on the website that "newsweek" was having a story bill clinton had an affair with chelsea clinton -- >> her friend. her age. >> okay, let's clarify that for a moment. >> once again, matt drudge is reporting that abc is sitting on a story for some time and they want to release this event. i'm not saying what is right or wrong, but they are timing the story and we don't know when or why. >> they're going to have a clip of it this morning. >> here's the deal, okay. we can sit here and talk about, do you release it when you don't release it? the doesn't matter. this is a woman who listens to a candidate and talk about the sanctity of marriage in debates. you talk about characters in debates. the moment you go down that line, you are going to have to deal with these kind of questions. now, we can say, it doesn't matter to the voters, but when you look at these republican primaries and when you hear voters talk about this particular issue, it is going to come up and you have to deal with it and you must confront it. >> let's talk about jimmy carter's comments on piers morgan. we have been discussing this over the last couple days. this is what jimmy carter told piers morgan last night. >> i think he has that subtly of racism that i know quite well -- >> really? >> knows quite well that appeals to some people in georgia, particularly the right wing. >> you think he's doing it deliberately. >> he knows the words that you use and so forth that have been appealing in the past in those days of cherished segregation of the races. he's appealing for that in south carolina. i don't think it will pay off in the long run. >> so, is this a bombshell at all? >> i think this is a debate we were having yesterday. racial coating in what newt gingrich has said not only in the debates, but in some of the campaign stops. >> you know how i feel about this, soledad. if you say unemployment is higher in urban areas and then you say children in urban areas aren't acquiring work ethic. >> things that i say this president is the president who is the food stamp president, if you look at those numbers, it was george bush. >> more people on food stamps were white than black. i think when you make statements that don't have any relation to race some group of people hear -- maybe i'm not naive. >> yes, you are. you are naive. yes, you are. >> that was funny right there. >> i'd say you are naive. you are. >> look, i know you think that. >> i think in many ways the heart of the tea party movement, heart of the tea party movement is opposition to transfer payments. what newt gingrich is doing with food stamps is something that has never been done before. republicans talk about welfare. welfare was the symbol of government that took money from people who were working hard. that went away in inthe 1990s wn trent lott agreed on welfare reform. what gingrich is talking about food stamps raising that for welfare department in a way that has never been used before. same core argument. the core republican argument of our government it is taking money from hard-working people and giving it to those who don't deserve it. >> are y'all done? >> yes. >> i hope we are. the segment is over. >> let me help you with something. when newt gingrich says, i'm going to go to the naacp and i'm going to say, stop demanding checks and demand paychecks. he didn't say the national organization of women, he didn't say i'm going to a tea party rally. he specifically said the naacp. what does that mean? i'm talking to black people. >> when he talks about poor children and work as janitors, kids who are -- >> then he comes back to clean it up and the problem is, look, you knew exactly what you were saying the first time and so then when you say, what i really mean and then you see commentators say, here's what i think he meant. we heard what he said, we know what he meant and we know the game. >> we have hogan on the phone. he is santorum's national communication's director and we have an opportunity to ask him about some of these advances and developments this morning in, i can't even call it recount. it's not done. so, hogan, thanks for talking with us. we appreciate your time this morning. first, i'll ask you, what is your reaction when you hear that your candidate may win in iowa, after all. >> good morning, soledad. thanks for having me on. it's very exciting. i mean, two elections and the narrative for a long time has been mitt romney was 2-0. if these results are true and rick is ahead by 34 votes, then that's not the narrative any more. two states, two different victors and we're trying to say that we're the clear, consistent alternative to mitt romney and this just bears the fact that we were able to win iowa and, of course, i can understand how romney campaign is already out there trying to marginalize the victory. they outspent us by 20 times what we spent. but he did the same thing to mike huckabee. outspent him 20 times as much money. so, i can understand he didn't want that narrative out there. big win for our campaign and we're really excited about it. >> but is it really a big win when at the end of the day, some people say it just really doesn't matter. here you look at the storyline going into new hampshire. if you're going to talk about narratives, wow, santorum, big boost. it didn't help him that much. so, 34 votes or even victory there overall wouldn't have necessarily helped him. would it have made a difference, do you think? >> absolutely, soledad. look, when the thought was that mitt romney won by eight votes, it was a huge victory for mitt romney. but by that standard, i guess 34 votes is just about a landslide in iowa. the bottom line is, he is really going to make a boost to our campaign today and remind people that we've been able to tackle and take on mitt romney head on. we are the alternative to him and we plan on taking this into south carolina and beyond and showing people that we have the message and the messenger that can be the guy writing checks trying to buy state. >> hogan gidley joining us by phone. thanks for being with us. we appreciate your time this morning. lots to talk about. continuing to gather reaction to this breaking news out of iowa. we left iowa a long time ago and we're still talking about iowa. we'll talk about that this morning. then this cruiseship story that we have been following all week. new twists that the captain of this doomed cruise ship is telling as the timeline comes out. we'll tell you what he's saying. that's straight ahead, stay with us. plus, at&t hiking rates. get ready to pay even more. actor mark wahlberg backing from unfortunate comments he made about the 9/11 hijackers. that story straight ahead, as well. stay with us. [ male announcer ] the cadillac cts sport sedan was designed with near-perfect weight balance from front to back... and back to front. ♪ giving you exceptional control from left to right... and right to left. ♪ the cadillac cts. ♪ we don't just make luxury cars. we make cadillacs. one chance to hunt down the right insurance at the right price. the "name your price" tool, only from progressive. ready, aim, save! grrr! ooh, i forgot my phone! the "name your price" tool. now available on your phone. get a free quote today. good morning. welcome back, everybody. our other top story this morning is the rescue operations. more controlled explosions likely today. they're still trying to gain access to part of the ship. according to transcripts today attained by an italian newspaper, not yet independently verified by cnn, i should mention. the captain said he tripped and fell into a life boat after he handed off his own life jacket to a passenger. he also told the judge that he was navigating by sight. he said, i was navigating by sight because i knew the depths well and i knew the maneuvers. but this time i ordered the turn too late and i ended up in water too shallow. what happened onboard that oceanliner friday night. according to a full transcript from the port authority, at 10:06 p.m. police on land are made aware of problems. the passenger on the ship has called his mother on the land who in turn called police on the land and they reach back to the cruise ship. 10:14 they tell the coast guard. they answer back and say, don't worry, it's only a power outage. 10:26 p.m., the captain calls the coast guard and says there is an open hole in his ship. by 10:48 the coast guard is told there is an evacuation under evaluation. after police first made the ship aware of the problems, the evacuation process begins. i find this timeline absolutely stunni stunning. roland mrarten has popped out for a minute so he can talk to tom joiner. tom joiner's morning show. we have jim staples back, who has been a captain for 20 years, as well as a master mariner. he has bipartisan with us for the last couple days. i want to run through more stuff on this timeline. i find it stunning. first, the people who notified the police on land was the mo mother of a passenger who called her to tell her about the problems of hitting something. you can follow from this timeline that he admits he is in the water and the patrol boat at half past midnight informs him that there are 70 or 80 people stuck on that ship still, onboard. at 2:53 in the morning and he is found on the land. when you hear this updated transcript, sir, what is your take? >> it's amazing what took place on this ship with this captain. i find it amazing that a man in command would do something like that. >> we know there were calls between the captain and the cruiseline. he's basically calling his bosses. how unusual would that be after you've hit something but before you actually call for an evacuation? what could they possibly be talking about? >> i don't know what they were talking about. i am sure he was talking about possibility damage to the vessel. again, it shows their responsibility and incompetence. his first order of command was to find out what was going on with that ship and the problem if he needed to get the crew and passengers off immediately. that's what he should have been attending to sdmaut been distracted by calling the office and talking about probabilities. he should have gotten those people safely off the vessel. to call the office and maybe ask for advice. i don't know what he was doing or what he was thinking. >> will cain has said early on, i think all of us said before you know everything, you hesitate. especially since a lot of this is translated out of the italian. to me, it seems the incompetence has been -- >> we talked the last several days about abandoning ship. they're clarifying that with each other. what, you've abandoned ship? what does it mean to abandon ship? what does that declare? if he fell into the water, as he claims he did, what does it take to abandon ship? >> he claims he fell into a life boat, which is less believable. when you talk to the passengers who say they fought their way to life boats. >> qualifies as abandoning ship. >> jim? >> abandoning ship, why he would leave that vessel and i find this hard to believe. he should have never left the vessel and the probability of him falling out of the ship and tripping and conveniently landing in a life boat, what i would call a sea story. but, you know, for this guy to abandon that vessel like that, you don't want to leave your vessel and your crew to fend for yourselves. to make sure these people are all safe. again, this is, it is unfolding to just be bizarre. just a bizarre instance of a captain who really did not have command of his vessel. >> captain, it's ron brownstein. is the expectation in a situation like that, is the protocol that the captain would be the last person off a vessel? is that the expectation? >> absolutely. the captain should be the last person off the vessel. again, for the safety of your crew, your passengers to get them off first and then also to negotiate salvage rights with a salvage company. that would be the time you would be talking to the office. >> you know, one of the things he said, captain jim, he was -- i'm sorry, forgive me for interrupting you. he was navigating by sight so close to the beach and he said he has done it several times before. the way you'd navigate your sun fish as opposed to this massive cruise ship. how unusual would it be for someone to navigate by sight in a place that is so clearly close to the beach? >> well, there's nobody that i k