ahe surged in a new cnn poll and voters say it is important to pick someone to beat president trump. and isis heats up. secretary of state pompeo admits the terror group is stronger in some places now than it was years ago and the pentagon reveals an isis resurgence months after the president proclaimed a 100% defeat of the isis caliphate. wolf blitzer is off. i'm brianna keilar and you're in "the situation room." >> announcer: this is cnn breaking news. breaking news. as concerns grow about an economic downturn, president trump confirms he's considering a payroll tax cut and is again slamming the fed saying it should cut interest rates. but with the top financial firm saying that his tariffs could cost american families $1,000 a year, the president insists he's not ready to make a deal with china saying he would stick to his trade war even if the u.s. falls into a recession. also tonight, secretary of state mike pompeo concedes isis is stronger in some play places than four years ago following a pentagon report that isis is resurging in iraq and syria just months after the president declared the terror group caliphate 100% defeated. i'll be speaking with congressman gerry connelly of the foreign affairs and oversight committee and our correspondents and analysts are standing by with full coverage. let's go to cnn chief white house correspondent jim acosta there on the north lawn. and jim, for someone who said the economy is great, the president sure seems worried. >> reporter: seems that way, brianna. the dances around the economy and gun control and sounded open to a payroll tax cut despite his aides knocking down that idea but the president insisted any potential tax cuts are not needed because of a possible recession. the president began to parrot the talking points of the national rifle association on whether to tight ebb the nation's background check system and then on the topic of rashida tlaib said jewish people may be disloyal if they vote for democrats. president trump is ripping into forecasts from economists that the u.s. could be headed toward a recession. >> i think the word recession is a word that is inappropriate because it is just a word that the -- the -- certain people, i will be kind, certain people in the media are trying to build up because they would love to see a recession. >> reporter: still the president revealed he's considering some proposals to boost the u.s. economy. including a payroll tax cut. >> payroll tax is something we think about and a lot of people would like to see that. and that very much affects the working -- the workers of our country and we have a lot of workers. i've been thinking about payroll taxes for a long time. whether or not we do it now or not is -- it is not being done because of recession. >> reporter: but the president contradicted his own aides who had just batted down the idea a few hours earlier in the day. >> is it considered. >> it is not being considered at this time. >> reporter: mr. trump is still touting the u.s. economy as the best in the world but there are signs of possible trouble. u.s. steel announced up to 200 temporary layoffs in the battleground state of michigan. that news came less than a week after the president said the steel industry was humming along. >> we're doing steel. steel industry is high. the steel -- they were dumping steel all over. they were destroying our companies. u.s. steel now -- all of them, they're all expanding. the steel industry is back. it is doing great. >> reporter: on gun control, the president seemed to downplay the need for tighter background checks. sources tell cnn the president has soured on the idea of new gun laws after talking with lawmakers and the nra. >> we are in very meaningful discussions with the democrats and i think the republicans are very unified. we are very strong on our second amendment, the democrats are not strong at all in the second amendment. and we have to be very careful about that. you know they call it the slippery slope. and all of a sudden everything gets taken away. we're not going to let that happen. >> reporter: but listen to what the president said earlier this month when he claimed he didn't agree with the notion of a slippery slope and nra talking points. >> nra has over the years taken a very, very tough stance on everything. and i understand it. you know, it is a slippery slope. they think you approve one thing and that leads to a lot of bad things. i don't agree with that. >> reporter: the president attacked congresswoman tlaib who gave a tearful rebuke of the israel banning along with ilhan omar tweeting i don't buy her tears and i've watched her violence and craziness and words for far too long and now tears. she hates israel and all jewish people. she is an anti-semite. >> all of a sudden she starts with tears. tears. and i don't buy it. i don't buy it. i don't buy it for a second. i think any jewish people that vote for a democrat, i think it shows either a total lack of knowledge or great disloyalty. >> reporter: and days away from the next g-7 the president talking about allowing russia back in after the group of world powers gave moscow the boot over the annexation of criminea. >> i guess president obama because putin outsmarted him, president obama thought it wasn't a good thing to have russia in. so he wanted russia out. but i think it is much more appropriate to have russia in. >> reporter: now getting back to the president's comments about congresswoman rashida tlaib, the jewish democratic council of america has released a statement in the last few minutes saying, quote, this is yet another example of donald trump continuing to weaponize and politicize anti-semitism. meanwhile tlaib colleague ilhan omar released a tweet in the last several minutes. she simply said, quote, oh, my. house. we have more breaking news. just days before the group of top industrialized nations meets for the annual summit, president trump said he's like to see the g-7 become the g-8 again byin r reinstated russia. let's turn to kylie atwood. and it bears reminding, russia was kicked out for invading a neighbor, something the u.s. was con delling. >> not just the u.s. >> that is right. >> all of the member nations, the majority of the g-7 were supportive of the move to kick russia out of the g-7, then the g-8 back in 2014. president trump reiterating what he said before today, it is notable today because he's heading to the g-7 in just a few days to meet with the world leaders who were on board with then president obama who was effective in getting russia to get out of the group. but president trump didn't say he will push for it. he said he would see an emotion >> and secretary of state mike pompeo downplayed the isis threat. he acknowledged it in a way but also very much downplaying it and this is not long after the pentagon said actually they're making a resurgence. >> that is right. so the inspector general report from the pentagon this month said that isis is resurging in both iraq sa-- and syria on the heels the troop pulldown in syria and also on the heels of questions about where the trump administration is going with syria policy. but as you said, secretary pompeo sought to downplay the fact that this is a real threat saying they have actually decreased threats in areas and increases in others. let's listen to what he said. >> is it gaining strength in your opinion? >> it is complicated. there are certainly places where isis is more powerful today than they were three or four years ago. but the caliphate is gone and their capacity to conduct external attacks has been made much more difficult. we've taken down significant risk. not all of it. but a significant amount. >> so we know that one of the areas where isis has started to resurge is in the internally displaced people camps, the syrians without a home and there is about 70,000 in this camp in northeastern syria. this inspector general report out from the pentagon said the isis ideology in the camp is uncontested and nobody is pushing back against it and this is becoming a potential breeding ground for the next generation of si-- of isis fighters becaus they are young and under 18 years old. >> and certainly very unhappy with their circumstances and vulnerable to messaging. >> exactly. >> thank you so much for that report. joining me now is democratic congressman jerry connell a member of the foreign affairs committee and the house oversight committee as well. sir, thanks for being with us. >> great to be with you. >> i do want to talk to you about this resurgence of isis here in just a moment. but first, let's get to the president's comments on the economy. because he confirmed today he would be open to a payroll tax cut. is that something that you would consider as well? >> not at this time. congress, the republican congress passed an enormous tax cut that overwhelmingly benefited large corporations and the wealthy 1%. they promised that that would lead to a resurgence of business investment and it would pay for itself and instead we've seen the largest red ink in an expanding economy in american history and that investment dried up and most of that money and corporations went to stock buybacks, very unproductive. so if we're going to look at a tax cut, a., the economy has to be in some real trouble, and, b., it will require frankly recalibrating the tax cut that the republican congress passed just two years ago. >> i was asking one 2020 candidate earlier about this. john delaney would not say definitively that he would not support a payroll tax cut because you bring up the republican tax overhaul but this is a payroll tax cut. the idea being that this might help a lot of people who support democrats, who have -- who have your ear. what would you say to them, especially considering president obama signed a payroll tax cut in 2020 and he thought it was a good idea then and why isn't it a good idea now? >> well not all tax cuts are the same. and you have to look at the current state of the economy. mr. trump can't have it both ways. an additional stimulation to an economy s -- economy that is continuing to grow makes no sense. a stimulation about a economy that is contracting, that is a different matter. but it is still requiring revisiting the wealthy giveaway tax cut that the republicans passed two years ago. we can't continue to simply hemorrhage red ink because revenue shrinks in the tax system. we have to have a balanced tax code that does a better job of balancing revenue and expenditures. >> to your point, there are some economists who think that a recession is looming and this is something that -- while the president is being rosie publicly about the economy, privately he's expressing concern about a recession. are you worried about that? >> i think there are warning signs for sure. we see germany's economy, the largest economy in europe has contracted two quarters in a row. we have trump's trade war with china which is badly affecting both consumer items in the united states, but particularly the agricultural sector by drying up markets for american farmer goods. we have manufacturing under some real assault in america. and we don't have very great wage growth in the united states. we're kind of chugging along at an anemic level which mr. trump promised would be double what it is right now. so i think there are some warning signs. thae -- and then we have a sign on the markets, the inverted yield curve for bonds which has accurately predicted about 18 months out every recession over the last six. >> i do want to get your reaction to something else the president said in the oval office today when he was speaking about his recent feud with congresswoman rashida tlaib over her canceled visit to the west bank. he said, quote, i think any jewish people that vote for a democrat, i think it shows either a total lack of knowledge or great disloyalty. that is president trump. what do you make -- of the president -- the reaction. >> i think that is a profoundly anti-semitic statement by the president. to suggest that the jewish americans in their preference in voting are disloyal is an old anti-semitic trope. it is disgusting. it ought to be condemned by republicans as well as democrats. and i condemn it here. >> let's talk about isis. because according to a new report from the pentagon, the terror group is staging a comeback in iraq and syria here in recent months. you sit on the house foreign affairs committee. how should the trump administration and how should congress respond to this apparent resurgence? >> i think we need to take it seriously and it is tied in with some of the other things as well. protecting the kurds in syria and parts of syria they libb liberated and dismantled the caliphate is very important because if we don't, they hold thousands of isis prisoners. and those prisoners will be let go if the kurds lose their territory in syria. so this is a complicated matter but there is no question that isis, despite the fact that it lost its geography has not lost the will to exist and inflict damage. >> congressman, thank you so much. congressman gerry connelly with us. >> my great pleasure. >> good to see you. and up next, joe biden surging in a new cnn poll regaining a double-digit lead over democratic rivals. why is kamala harris slipping? and the president seems to back pedal on the idea of new gun laws saying they are already very strong, the background checks that are already in place. all money managers might seem the same, but some give their clients cookie cutter portfolios. fisher investments tailors portfolios to your goals and needs. some only call when they have something to sell. fisher calls regularly so you stay informed. and while some advisors are happy to earn commissions whether you do well or not. fisher investments fees are structured so we do better when you do better. maybe 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(pterodactyl screech) believe it. geico could save you 15% or more on car insurance. a new cnn poll reveals intriguing trends in the 2020 presidential race. it is out just as former vice president joe biden is putting a big emphasis on his electability. arlette saenz is in iowa for us. so tell us about this. >> reporter: well, brianna, this new cnn poll shows that joe biden is still holding on to that front-runner status. this new poll now has him up ahead of his rivals by double-digits. and then bernie sanders and elizabeth warren battling it out for second place and followed by pete buttigieg and kamala harris both coming in at 5%. but kamala harris has dropped by 12 points since june. since our poll in june taken offer the debate where she sparred with joe biden over the issue of school busing. another interesting figure from our new cnn poll is that the majority of democrats want to see a candidate who they believe has a strong chance of defeating president trump. and this new poll comes as joe biden is honing in on the issue of electability as he's airing the fir tv ad of the presidential campaign here in the state of iowa. take a look at part of that advertise that is starting to run today. >> we know in our bones this election is different. the stakes are higher. the threat more serious. we have to beat donald trump. and all of the polls agree joe biden is the strongest democrat to do the job. >> reporter: so it is interesting there that the biden campaign pointing to the head-to-head match-ups where they see the former vice president potentially beating trump in a general election match-up. and this is really something that you've heard joe biden stress over and over during his campaign, that what democrats need to do is elect someone that can beat -- or pick someone as the nominee to beat trump in the general election. >> and jill biden is making this argument and -- and his wife, so tell us about that. >> it is not so often you hear the candid statements from the presidential candidates' spouses but jill biden was in new hampshire yesterday speaking to a group of teachers who were not necessarily committed to her husband's candidacy and noted at the beginning of the remarks saying i know many of you may not be committed to joe biden but take a listen to the argument that jill biden was making yesterday in new hampshire. >> your candidate might be better on, i don't know, health care than joe is. but you've got to look at who will win this election. and maybe you have to swallow a little bit and say, okay, i sort of personally like so and so better, but your bottom line has to be that we have to beat trump. >> reporter: now jill biden was asked about the comments here in prole, iowa and he emphasized what his wife had to say, saying that issues that voter care about wouldn't go into effect if donald trump is re-elected so hone in on picking a nominee to defeat him coming november 2020. >> those were extraordinary comments. thank you so much. and coming up, a stunning comment from president trump who said that, quote, any jewish people that vote for a democrat show either lack of knowledge or great disloyalty. anyone can deliver pizza. only marco's can deliver america's most loved pizza. hot and fresh, and right to your door. every day at marco's, get two medium, one-topping pizzas for just $6.99 each. hello to the italian way. hello primo. hey, who are you? oh, hey jeff, i'm a car thief... what?! i'm here to steal your car because, well, that's my job. what? what?? what?! 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is he also speaking just to his base to try to throw some red meat their way. >> that could certainly be a part of it. i think if the president had been more artful or tactful he could have tried to make the point that if you are a supporter of israel, if you want the united states to be a stronger supporter of israel, here is why you should be voting republican. because right now there is legitimate debate on the left amongstates should be supportin israel. disagreements about the two state solution. so i think there is a argument politically to made for our republicans or democrats, a better party to support if you are a strong supporter of israel but the president is making this instead into something anti-semitic frankly. >> let's talk about some of the -- what the polls are showing us in this 2020 race as democrats are trying to take on donald trump. our cnn poll, mark, what does it tell you about joe biden's durability as a front-runner in. >> well he has staying power. eight years with barack obama and people forget he was first elected in 1972. joe biden is not new to people. if you are a democrat, and you're somebody who has voted in the past couple of elections, you pretty much made your opinion of joe biden and if you look deeper into the numbers it goes to show that not only does joe biden do better with self identified democrats and does better well with conservatives and moderate democrats and what is also interesting is he's tied with bernie sanders and elizabeth warren when it comes to liberal democrats. which is not as if he's bleeding support from liberals but he has more support elsewhere and most importantly he has support -- a strong support from democrats who want to defeat donald trump. >> that is exactly right. so 54% of democratic voters say it is more important that a candidate have a strong chance of beating trump than shares their position on the issues. however, gloria, that is down a little bit. that is down 61% which is where we saw that in june. that is significant. so does the electability argument, is that sustainable? >> well, right now it is good. for joe biden. but the interesting thing to me, as you look deeper into the -- into our polling is the generational issue here. because if you are younger, ages 18 to 49, you think 43% of you think what is most important is that you can beat trump but 53% say you have to share my positions. that is young people. share my positions. older people, 60% almost say -- and this is 65 and over, you've got to beat trump. so older voters are much more inclined to vote for a candidate who may believe can win and that is where joe biden gets his sustainability from those voters. >> let's listen to jill biden make the case for why electability is so important. >> maybe you have to swallow a little bit and say, okay, i sort of personally like so and so better. but your bottom line has to be that we have to beat trump. >> i think it is always a treat for us as we are political observers for something so unexpected that a spouse of a candidate would say something like this. it is just sort of a treat to talk about in a way. what do you think? >> right. just making such a starkly pragmatic argument, it is basically like put settle for joe on a bumper sticker, it is not a inspiring campaign slogan. but one of the challenges for joe biden moving forward as he and his campaign try to make this purely electability argument is that when you look at the polling right now on these potential match-ups between democratic candidates and trump, joe biden isn't the only one who wins. in fact, every single top tier democrat now would beat donald trump if you are looking purely at the national polling. so it is difficult to din to make that argument when kamala harris and elizabeth warren and bernie sanders can all say, well, look, we would beat trump too. >> but i think to me the honesty in the statement is also just a fact of voting. right. you don't always sha-- always se all of your views for a candidate, what she's saying is don't let the perfect be the enemy. good and in this case the campaign knows there is a subsection of the democratic party that could be up to 30% that believe that joe biden is taking the wrong approach to health care. those people can probably still vote for joe biden because they are still democrats and that is what jill biden -- >> need to get in a quick break. stand by. we have much more ahead including a dip in the polls for kamala harris and how does she rebound from that? 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(vo) quickbooks. backing you. and we're back now with our political experts. let's talk, gloria, about what the polls, our latest poll is saying about kamala harris because this was one of the big headlines aside from joe biden's durability in the poll. oh, my goodness, dropping 12%. >> yeah. it is sort of like -- >> that is the sound. >> it's -- it was -- i was talking with brooke baldwin earlier about this today. it is like a souffle that can't rise again and it is just -- it just sunk and the question is why. and i think what happened is when you rise that quickly, you get under a magnifying glass and people start wanting to know more about you and she's been questioned about, well were you tough on crime? were you not tough on crime? you're criticizing joe biden on the crime bill. well what about you in the state of california. so she has had trouble with durability and i think in the next debate she's going to have to really -- she's going to have to -- to up her game because she hasn't been able to sustain where she was. she had that moment and then it kind of got kwaunder-- squander i'm not sure why. >> can she make the souffle rise again. >> it is hard to make a souffle rise? >> is it a balloon? what can she do. >> it is a long primary. and we haven't really even started. so there is time, but the problem seems to be that it is closing the sale. a lot of people seem to like kamala harris, voters are very interested in learning about her but when you ask them who they prefer, she's not their number one choice. and that is why she's losing out to joe biden and bernie sanders and elizabeth warren. because she's -- falling down on people's list of the top tier candidates. and some of that could be -- could be because she's trying to carve out a lane that is occupied already. somewhere between joe biden and elizabeth warren and she's neither of those people. she's not the clear moderate nor is she the clear progressive and i think democratic voters don't quite know what to do with that. so there is a lot of work for her to do to kind of make clear to voters what she's running for and what her message is. >> let's talk about julian castro because he was the tenth person -- this is important, the tenth person to qualify for the september debate. is this life or death qualifying for this? how significant is that. >> it is. not only did he qualify for the debate but he qualified for the cnn climate crisis town hall where all ten candidates will appear on september 4th. why that is important is because they're going to speak directly to democratic voters on democratic issues and create moments that go viral that they want to push out to the supporters. it is life or death now because it is coming down to closing the sale. you don't have to close the sale to actually have somebody make the purchase, you just have to keep them still interested in you right now and i think abby is right about that. but you need to start making that close now. >> how do candidates tay in if they aren't going to be elevated to talk to voters in this way? can they? >> many of them won't is the reality of it. i think the deadline is august 28th, the end of the month to qualify for the next debate and if they don't, they have some really tough decisions to make. if they are self funding like john delaney, millions of dollars at their disposal maybe they could try to keep going and make the october debate but if you are a kirsten gillibrand, if you are one of the lower tier candidates who isn't using their own money to fund their campaign, they're going to have to make a tough decision. do you keep going, can you afford to keep going? can you afford to keep paying your staff? that is a really pressing issue for a lot of the campaigns is can they continue to make payroll for their staff because their fundraising in a lot of cases is drying up. >> what do you think? >> i think expectations matter. so polls are not everything. but they do signal to donors and to just rank and file democrats about your ability to persevere through this primary and they build on each other and if you are not doing well now, it gets progressively more difficult to raise money and a little bit like a ball rolling down a hill. so for a lot of the candidates it is do or die to change the narrative as early as possible so they don't end up in a death cycle before they get to the iowa caucus. >> it is like the hunger games. it is not pretty. and you'll see these people on stage, whether you have one debate or end up having two debates, you'll see people on stage and you have to figure out who you have to knock off in order to survive yourself. and for kamala harris, get back to her,ul lot of the african-american voters from joe biden. and when she was so effective talking about busing, as that little girl, she thought that was going to really do it for her. that would help her out. but it didn't help her out. what is going to happen in the upcoming debates? julian castro going after beto o'rourke. will that happen again? because those two are in the same lane. and so it is just -- it's not -- >> the stakes are high in this hunger games 2020 episode. thank you so much. rebecca, buck, abby phillip and gloria borger and mark. vladimir putin puts his spin on a explosion involving a nuclear missile and raises more questions than he answered. are we witnessing a chernobyl-style cover-up? with zero account fees for brokerage accounts, and zero minimums to open an account. we have fidelity mutual funds with zero minimum investment. and only fidelity offers four zero expense ratio index funds directly to investors. because when you invest with fidelity, all those zeros really add up. ♪ so, maybe i'll win ♪ saved by zero that a handle is just a handle. chair is just a chair. or... that you can't be both inside and outside. most people haven't driven a lincoln. it's the final days of the lincoln summer invitation event. right now get 0% apr on all lincoln vehicles plus no payments for up to 90 days. only at your lincoln dealer. 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(avo) call 1-800-miracle to start your 30 day risk-free trial and schedule your free hearing evaluation today. how you watch it does too. tv just keeps getting better. this is xfinity x1. featuring the emmy award-winning voice remote. streaming services without changing passwords and input. live sports - with real-time stats and scores. access to the most 4k content. and your movies and shows to go. the best tv experience is the best tv value. xfinity x1. simple. easy. awesome. xfinity. the future of awesome. happening now, breaking news. unnerved. even as president trump denies a recession is on the horizon, he's conjuring ways to use the economy and blame everyone but himself if he's wrong. so would new tax cuts make a difference? disloyalty, the president just make a shocking claim that jewish people who vote democrat lack knowledge or loyalty. we're going to get reaction this hour. >> tipped off. the feds make multiple arrests, responding to new mass shooting threats including a teenager who allegedly warned of a slaughter at an abortion clinic. after el paso and dayton, are people more willing to tip off police? >> and surging joe. our new cnn poll reveals a biden rebound boosted by voters who say their top priority is defeating president trump. tonight, the biden camp is sending a very blat nlt message to democrats that electability is everything. we want to welcome our viewers in the united states and around the world. wolf blitzer is off today. i'm brianna keilar. you are in "the situation room."