mississippi, idaho and hawaii. just a few hours away from learning the results, which could answer a whole lot of questions. we have the first batch of exit polling coming in. david chalian going through the numbers now. we'll bring him in momentarily. of course our correspondents across the map. polling places in campaign stops, bringing you the latest, as well as best team of analysts around. let start with cnn's sara murray with the trump campaign. what is donald trump's message? concerned about losing me mentum if he doesn't win tonight? >> reporter: well, wolf, donald trump has had a quiet day today. he hasn't been campaigning but when he was in mississippi last night he was bragging about how he's ahead in the polls by 20 points. but he was careful to remind voters you need to slow up and vote. i think that's a reality of the situation. cal pain goes into tonight wanting to win as many delegates as possible especially michigan, mississippi. so a loss in either of the states would be a blow to them. but also looking at states as stepping stones to the big prizes. there's a reason we are in florida, that is because they are laser focused on this state. this is a winner take all state, they want to win, knock marco rubio out once and for all come the 15th. >> campaign, the whole nature of the campaign, as important as the states are now, the states next tuesday are critically important. that could make or break some of the candidates, right? >> reporter: yeah. i think that's exactly right. we know what the stakes are for marco rubio. this is his moment state. for donald trump he needs to show he can win in florida in the face of an avalanche of attacks against him. remember, so far in this race, trump has faced criticism, certainly, but he's not faced a coordinated assault from opponents and that's what we're seeing now. we're seeing cruz go after him, marco rubio go after him and a number of allies who want anyone but trump spending a lot of money on the airwaves and that's what his campaign members tell us in florida, trump is facing a tough haul. he may be losing a little bit of momentum they feel confident in the state. but we'll see if that holds through the 15th. >> sarah, thanks very much, like donald trump, ted cruz campaigning hard for next week's contests in north carolina as wellinging looking to do well in a state rich with evangelical voter. charlotte, north carolina, our sunlen serfaty. ted cruz has been talking to voters today in north carolina, telling them he's the one to pick if they don't want donald trump in the white house. what's the campaign saying about their chances for beating trump, first of all, in tonight's primaries? >> reporter: wolf, they're not predicting outright win in any of the stated against donald trump tonight. but they do think that they will pick up a good amount of delegates, a win for ted cruz tonight would be able to walk away with a firm grasp on the handle that he is the alternative to trump. and the way they do that is to solidify that through the math, the delegates to rack them up here and there. they hope they will be able to chip away at divide between donald trump and delegates and importantly marginalize all of the other candidates with the delegate counts. >> north carolina's primary's a week from today. but today, the first time ted cruz has a talked to voters there in quite a while, right? >> reporter: that's right. this is a state that they have been refoe cutting on they see a big poe tense hering a state that votes on march 15th. it's been interesting, as ted cruz making his case to north carolina voter states, also about the viability of his campaign in contrast to his rivals, all rivals not named donald trump. today he really increased the intensity and the boldness, i should say of his voters. he said john kasich and marco rubio, he said, bluntly to voters, they have no credible path forward to the nomination. he said it's impossible for either one to get to the magic number 1237 to get the nomination. interesting pitch as he's making the case here, the north carolina voters, a state with big potential. >> sunlen serfatying thank you. as we've been saying today, marco rubio is guaranteeing a win next week in florida, campaign spokesman will join us, shortly. john kasich is also looking ahead to his home state primary, campaigning south of cleveland in broad view heights. phil mattingly at kasich primary headquarters in columbus, ohio. he's joining us now. phil, kasich's team put a lot of emphasis on michigan serving as a place to gain momentum before ohio's primary which is critical next week. are the defining success for tonight? >> reporter: wolf, they're staying away from specific predicts but no question that optimism within the campaign has been rising over the last couple of days and there's good reason. they've invested a ton in michigan everybody almost $1 million in ads between the super pac and kasich's campaign. kasich himself has more or less moved into the state, rally after rally. they feel comfortable in the fact ut a border state. a message that resonates not only in ohio but michigan. kasich's team not willing to predict where they finish. talk to them being candid, they think a second place finish is within the cards today. >> phil mattingly, thank you. we'll be talking with governor kasich himself in our next hour. stand by for than also, as we said, just getting early exit polling results. david chalian's crunching the numbers for us now. the voters are still voting. so let's go now to our jean casarez eight polling place in warren, michigan. are the crowds picking up as it gets closer to when polls close? >> reporter: they are. it's been steady all day, as you can see me, lines, people getting off work, they're coming. this is the auto industry here. this is the largest suburb outside detroit, michigan, and people here just are devoted to their jobs and the industry. the industry that they have lost. so they are concerned and they want the next president of this country to be for them, to help restore this area what it used to be. the general motors technical center is two miles away from where we are now. what we're seeing on the republican side, two names, donald trump and john kasich. i mean those are the napes we've been hearing all day. we've been talking to people after they've voted, not ted cruz or marco rubio. on the democratic side, we're hearing hillary clinton and people also are tagging that. she's bringing bill with her. they love bill clinton here. but also bernie sanders. people believe he's authentic, with the people and for the people, and that's what they want more than anything. >> what kind of voters have been turning out, based on your own reporting there? any trends so far that you can discern? >> reporter: the diversity is amazing. i mean, all day, people with baby carriages are coming, elderly. there was one woman that came here with her walker and she walked here and they were so concerned about her walking home with her walker so they drove her home, the polling officials to make sure she got home safely. diversity is immense. and the passion is evident because they want change, they want someone that can believe in them. the passion for donald trump is very strong because the hallmark of his campaign has been the auto industry. and they want to restore jobs here and many people are for that because of what he has told them directly. >> jean casarez from michigan, critically important state. we'll get results soon. just ahead, first exit polling results. with marco rubio focusing in on florida, which votes next tuesday, by the way, hear from a rubio spokesman what their expectations are for this tuesday, that would be for tonight. also -- new polling on what appears to be tightening national democratic race as well as state by state primary maps play out for secretary clinton and senator sanders. all that, much more as our special coverage continues. you're down with crestor. alright! now there's a way you can get crestor for $3. adding crestor, along with diet, lowers bad cholesterol. crestor is not for people with liver disease, or women who are nursing,pregnant, or may become pregnant. tell your doctor all medicines you take. call your doctor if you have muscle pain or weakness; feel unusually tired; have loss of appetite, upper belly pain, dark urine or yellowing of skin or eyes. these could be signs of serious side effects. ask for the crestor $3 card. ask your doctor about crestor. yeah! ahh... you probably say it a million times a day. ahh... ahh! ahh... ahh! but at cigna, we want to help everyone say it once a year. say "ahh". >>ahh... cigna medical plans cover one hundred percent of your in-network annual checkup. so america, let's go. know. ahh! and take control of your health. cigna. together, all the way. polls are still open, campaign events going on right now. less than three hours away from the first poll closing in this second, possibly pivotal super tuesday. 150 delegates up for grabs on the republican side. 166 for the democrats. and only a few moments ago we got our first early indication of what kind of electorate is turning out on this day as well as issues that are driving them. political director, david chalian, has been going through new data. insight, initial insight, on what's happening today? >> that's right. as you said, two big primaries, michigan and mississippi, to get the night started. and we took a look at republican side first. these are two different electorates in these two states. take a look at this. talking about feelings about whether or not people feel angry at the federal government, mississippi is an angry electorate, 44% of republican voters in the mississippi primary today tell us they are angry. 43% dissatisfied. michigan, a little less angry, only a third of michigan republican primary voters tell us they're angry more, majority, 55%, tell us they are dissatisfied. now, let's look at the religious makeup here. we looked at white evangelical christians here. in mississippi, 76% of the electorate is white evangelical christian. that is far different than the picture we see in michigan, which is a 49% evangelical christian electorate. so, angrier, more religious in mississippi. a little more secular and a little less angry, hot angry, in michigan. >> first bit of indications that we're getting from these exit polls, i know you're going through more with our team. we'll be sharing more with viewers. david chalian, thanks very much. >> we wait for the polls to close. look ahead to key races next week. chief national correspondent, inside politics anger, john king, political analysts gloria borger, david gergen, nia-malika henderson. kayleigh and mary katharine are opinion writer. bakari a clinton supporter, former south carolina lawmaker. peter beinart supporter of the atlantic monthly, city of new york teaches journalism and on the liberal side of thinkings. john king, anything to read in from exit polling? mississippi a state, where on paper, ted cruz given the large percentage of evangelicals certainly thought early he would have an advantage but evangelicals going for donald trump. >> it is. if you look at map from south carolina across to the texas border, we'll see if mississippi fills that in, all donald trump, send a message to the republican sport, this is not ideological race republicans thought they could have of a ted cruz tea party evangelical candidate versus washington republican establishment because you have the great disrupter donald trump. a lot of anti-establishment in the race. but ted cruz thought he'd been running against a governor bush or senator rubio, mitt romney, john mccain and he didn't get that race. donald trump picked his pocket across the south. that's why donald trump now is the front-runner for the republican nomination. the question is, trump took body blows on super saturday. if ekwe can hit him once more. i lost a round but i'm guying to win the fight. they wins mississippi and michigan, it's hard for people to say donald trump is knocked down. he may be wobbly. the other two contests, maybe a chance to somebody to get a win in idaho or hawaii. prizes are michigan and mississippi. for ted cruz who wants to say it's a two-man race, if he can't pick up a win in the south it undermines his rational. >> the margins last night might have been less for donald trump. but -- >> a wins a win. a win is a win. the race tonight in many ways is a race for second. >> for the last time. >> right. but you know, you have john kasich who should -- is trying, if he doesn't win michigan to be second because that would give him momentum going into his moment state of ohio. he has spent a lot of money in the state of michigan. if he's edged out by cruz in michigan, that's a real problem for him. in mississippi, you've got cruz saying you know what, if i'm not going to win mississippi, and i agree with john, mississippi is 83% evangelicals, sort of tailor made but if donald trump's message on trade and immigration is really good there, then you know cruz -- the margin matters. if he comes in close second, that's good for cruz. >> it strikes me mississippi outcome was the number of people angry, 44%. very much what we saw in the deep south where trump won so well and on super tuesday. with evangelicals actually went to trump in large numbers if they were angry. early numbers about the level -- >> david hits the point. we're overthinking this. this has changed. they want change. evangelicals want change. blue collar workers want change. we look at demographic groups in a traditional race, they are the key. this is not a traditional race. donald trump is winning across the spectrum of the republican party on the change message. immigration helps but the main thing, i will turn washington on its head. >> it's a difference from 2012. if you look at 2012, in a state like mississippi there was an establishment lane. there was a three-way tie with santorum, newt gingrich. i think tonight, if you don't see an establishment lane playing competitively, maybe getting 30% combined we might have to start turning away from this idea that establishment still has a chance and maybe it is really just down to trump and cruz and this is all about the anti-establishment. >> overwhelming in the exit polls, we've seen that republican primary voters want a candidate who tells it like it is. period. they -- that's what counts. and they believe donald trump is the candidate who tells it like it is, and they're challenging republican orthodoxy every step of the way. on every issue. >> making a difference between dissatisfaction and anger. it seems like they're closely linked. dissaved and angry. both of those blocks combined, whatever the breakdown is between them, slight difference in michigan, it's still going to donald trump. >> it's not all people with pitchforks who want to storm washington. some are disappointed, depressed, mad, anxious about the economy. it's a stew of negative emotion and it's put in one pot. the guy who says you can't trust them, you can trust me and i'll change thing is winning. >> we'll hear more from analysts and commentators. >> joinings now with the candidate guaranteeing a win next week in florida, the rubio campaign communications director. thanks for joining us. he thinks he's going to win next tuesday in florida what happen about tonight? four contests for the republicans. is he going to win any? >> focused on florida, guaranteeing a win. that's our priority. that's where marco is all of this week. that's where we're devoting most of the resources. i expect that ted cruz should win in mississippi, that's a state when he outlined his s.e.c. strategy he should win in mississippi. john kasich spent a lot of time in michigan i expect him to do well. for us it's florida. we have our best shot at doing better tonight would be the states out west that don't close until many of the viewers -- >> idaho and hawaii. rubio will do better? >> i expect he'll do better in idaho and hawaii than the states that are likely to be called earlier. if everyone can with hold their judgment. either way the race will come down to florida. if marco wins florida, we expect he will do. when we win florida, that's 99 delegates, way more than anyone's likely to win. >> winner take one. >> it puts us on a good trajectory. >> are we going to hear from senator rubio? he's on the campaign trail now. >> he's speaking in florida now. we'll continue to campaign into the evening and a busy day. >> no formal speech. >> i don't expect. cruz is going after senator rubio today. i'm going it play a clip of what he said, and then we'll get your reaction. >> welcoming people right now who are supporting marco rubio, supporting john kasich, both good, honorable men. but neither one of then has a path to defeating donald trump. if you want to defeat donald trump, i would say to you, come join us and if we stand together, we'll see results we get. >> he's saying he's the only one that can beat donald trump, your guy can't. >> that's not true. you're a voter in florida right now and you doesn't want donald trump to be the republican nominee, you have to go vote for marco rubio. any vote for somebody other than marco rubio is essentially a vote for donald trump. because of the absentee ballots and the polls we've seen now, the only person that has a mathematical shot of beating donald trump in florida is marco rubio. and if you don't want donald trump to be the republican nominee, you can't let him win florida. voters in florida, if they want to stop donald trump, they should vote today for marco rubio. if they're not in florida come to our website marco rubio.com and help us out there. every dollar we're raising we're pouring back into the florida. >> early voters in the monmouth poll of florida republican prime mar voters, among the early voters, people who have already voted, rubio's at 48%, trump's at 23%. rubio's at 30%, trump's the 38%. >> it says to me that we're doing a good job turning out our voters and we have ground to make up. that's why we're spending every day between now and next tuesday in florida. we're confident going into the homestretch. marco has run as an underdog in florida before. he's beaten republican in the past who isn't a real conservative, charlie crist in 2010. he knows how to win in florida. there's elections happening tonight. we're going to pick up delegates tonight but our focus is on next tuesday. >> thanks for coming in. the latest on the democratic prime mars in michigan and mississippi. also much more of the exit polling numbers coming in right now. two new national polls show the race is tightening. those new glasses? 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>> reporter: wolf, we talked so much how this is a fight for delegates. it is a mathematical fight. michigan 130 delegates. but it's symbolic importance as well. she can go on if she doesn't win michigan but that would give bernie sanders license to keep going so much farther. so michigan is an important win for her. if she wins there, and wins decisively, that begins to amplify the argument that it may be time to turn the corner in this race here. that's why the clinton campaign believes michigan is so, so important tonight. >> jeff, thank you. bernie sanders campaigning in florida tonight, in 90 minutes speaking eight rally in miami. brianna keilar's on the scene with the latest on the bernie sanders campaign. mississippi and michigan, they're voting tonight. why is bernie sanders already in florida? >> reporter: well, it would be because hillary clinton has an advantage in mississippi and michigan. it's not as much of an advantage and i've heard this from both campaigns, as maybe polls indicate, being here in florida allows him to push towards march 15th contests, a series that are going to be important, florida voters heading to primaries next tuesday. it also makes sense, puts him in place for the univision debate taking place tomorrow, simulcast on cnn. >> i understand that bernie sanders is filing a lawsuit in ohio because of a change to voting laws there. what can you tell us about this? >> reporter: yeah, that's right, wolf. taking issue with something that the secretary of state there did. he's a republican, the secretary of state in ohio. it used to be if you were 17 during the primary you could vote. if you were going to be 18 during the general election, the secretary of state changed that you have to be 18 during the primary to vote. obviously, this impacts bernie sanders because he is getting so much support from young voters. he wants as many young voters as possible. he filed the lawsuit saying it is a violation of ohio voting laws. he says it's a denial of due process. his campaign manager saying this is an effort to disenfranchise democratic voter ands bernie sanders voters. >> tomorrow night, watch the democratic debate in miami live here on cnn, 9:00 p.m. eastern. it will be simulcasting after "3 of 0." we hope you join us for that. david chalian starting to get more exit poll information gauging the mood of the electorate, results next. at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like grandkids equals free tech support. oh, look at you, so great to see you! none of this works. come on in. this just got interesting. why pause to take a pill? 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i don't want these trade deals and that plays into donald trump. >> how much does this hurt hillary clinton in a general election, often candidates run one way, for primaries once they get the nomination, they try to get a broader electorate. she's obviously gone further left. does she maintain that position? a general? >> i think it depends who she's running against more so than anything else. donald trump changes the map for democrats. donald trump puts in playpen pen, donald trump puts in play ohio. in the states where you have to go in and we have to have a discussion about trade. ted cruz does not. ted cruz fundamentally has the same map as mitt romney and john mccain. ted cruz gets beat on the map by hillary clinton. so, i think that it all depends who you run against, where you're playing. but michigan is going to be a great test because tonight we will be able to see what type of voters come out for hillary clinton, whether or not her message on trade resonates, how she was able to box ber in with the koch brothers and ted cruz, by which the way, genius debate tactic, we'll see how she plays with specific demographics. >> how brilliant was hillary clinton, go back to becoming obama's secretary of state. think about it, running as the inheriter of obama legacy. if you can people how well she'd able to do that, how bitter that campaign was, who would have said, no, she can't be that person. a lot of people didn't see the wisdom of her becoming secretary of state. she became politically de facto his vice president and given the fact that obama is popular among core base democratic groups that's set her up to run as successor and that's the reason she's beating bernie sanders. >> it's worth asking whether that's brilliant move for the general election. they are upset at obama, voters in the particular blue collar communities where one in five young men are still trying to find jobs, there's that poll a few months ago that 90% of electorate fears there's another terrorist attack. there's a real question there whether embedding yourself in the obama administration -- >> i think that's -- i think -- if this was 1992 or 1972, and that kind of electorate, yes. but given the fact that electorate has become so much more african-american, so much more latino, asian and young, trying to replicate the obama coalition, there are not that many reagan democrats left. that's the reality. >> we'll take a short break. a quick programming note to let you know about. tune in this thursday night for the cnn republican debate moderated by jake tapper. live from miami at 8:30 p.m. eastern. just ahead, who has the most to gain and lose tonight. what ted cruz, who is campaigning in north carolina right now, you see him there, has to do from here on out to try to take down donald trump. john king will break it down by the numbers. there has to be a way. carry the centimeter, divide by 3.14 something something something... [ beeping, whirring ] great caesar salad! ♪ and now the name your price tool shows people policy options to help fit their budget. is that a true story? yeah! people really do save an average of over $500 when they switch. i mean about you inventing it. i invented the story, and isn't that what really matters? so... what else about me? michigan and mississippi are the key races to watch tonight for both parties and for different reasons. stakes are high for all candidates, again for different reasons. john king will show us why. take a look at numbers of the democratic race. how much does sanders have to prove. >> hillary clinton wants to send a message and expand the map. look at delegate race. you win stated to get delegates. so, 201. you've got to get out 2383 to clinch. hillary clinton expects to finish the fooir wall across the south. she could come out with more in the splat but giving her a modest split. she bills the wall across the south, stretches out the lead a little bit. that's why the midamerican battleground is so important to bernie sanders. if he can win, he'll narrow the map. that will be important. but sends a message he's competitive in the midwest. if clinton can win the state, not only won the south, proving, a, she can get delegates, b, getting african-american voters. i'm beating you down here, i'm starting to beat you in the industrial heartland, i'm going 0 to be the sanders campaign d like this, anderson, but lastly she has in her pocket pocket superdelegates. yes, these delegates only vote if necessary, yes, she wants to win among the pledged delegates. she won't lose them if she keeps winning. if you take the superdelegates out of it, she hopes to stretch a 200 delegate lead out a little bit. >> what about the republican side? >> let's switch over to where we were today. ted cruz with the super saturday blows to donald trump, he wants to get closer to donald trump. he was 86 down to begin. night. he'd love to end the night closer and send the message -- down here in mississippi, donald trump has had a lot of success. if frutrump can run it up in th south, if donald trump, look at the message that would send, just like secretary clinton. hawaii and idaho are coming in later. we'll wait for those later in the night. possibility somebody other than trump can win out there. we'll see what happens. the other big battleground is michigan where trump wants to prove the point about his economic messages appeal to democrats. donald trump can win here, kasich wants to come in second. if donald trump does that, look what he starts to do, he starts to pull away again in the race. if ted cruz can somehow turn this orange, ted cruz could prove -- let's give donald trump second -- that he could play up here in the midwest, that would be a defining moment in the race, that would change the race. anderson, after taking the blows on super saturday. if donald trump can come out of this with a map like this, winning in the south, new england, in the south, the industrial heartland, he'd have the power ofs that message and improving math. he wants to show he's insurgent. >> john king, thanks so much. mary kat ma mary catherine, every night we hope there is more clarity at the end of the night. >> no clarity. one of the points david brought up from the exit polling you have michigan looking like a less angry state, a little bit more like a virginia in angry versus dissatisfied versus an alabama. i think that's an interesting point because you saw rubio close the gap on trump who had double-digit leads. in michigan you may see kasich close that gap. who knows if he makes it far enough to close it completely. i think cruz will have an argument, rubio will say i'm going to florida no matter what. you don't get clarity tonight but next week. >> the satisfied number is still in the 80s, extraordinarily high. we saw the same numbers in south carolina and nevada. the one unifying number in all of this is that anger and that dissatisfaction with the establishment, with the narrow minded conservative views of someone like ted cruz who shut down the government. you know, trump has come in and really brought in that platform on trade, noninterventionism. he's upended the party both the establishment and the party platform and that anger is really fueling that rise. i suspect if he wins in mississippi and michigan, it wins more to this narrative that's happening. >> there's a slight differentiation between the dissatisfied and the anger -- >> you think there is. >> i think there's a slight differentiation. virginia versus an alabama. >> none of these electorates are conducive to marco rubio. marco rubio officially is a candidate without a strategy. i mean, i was listening earlier to his spokesperson talk earlier today and it -- we began this discussion of where can marco rubio win? marco rubio's strategy now goes from minnesota to puerto rico to idaho to hawaii. and i haven't been around that long, but i'm not sure what dictates path to the presidency. marco rubio comes in fourth tonight in mississippi and fourth in michigan, i know he wants to go to florida, but for all intents and purposes, marco rubio is done. marco rubio needs to start worrying about whether or not he can be governor of florida or a have a future in the republican party. >> a new "wall street journal" poll out -- >> running behind kasich. >> kasich is ahead of him on a national level. >> rubio, remember going back to iowa, rubio tried to run to the right, appeal to conservative evangelical voters. in retrospect, you wonder might he have been better off actually playing as the somewhat moderate candidate, playing in the moderate -- he's actually allowed john kasich to basically steal that from him. >> david? >> i think the republican race is much more fluid tonight than it has been over the last two, flee we three weeks. it's not only these assaults on trump by the media as well as by his opponents are taking their toll -- >> you think they are taking their toll? >> yes, i do. you wouldn't see this closing. he's down to a three-point lead nationally in "the wall street journal"/nbc poll. the other part of this is he may be becoming boring. he's so repetitious. >> what? >> we've heard it, yeah, i'm telling you the worst thing you can -- >> he said we'd get tired of winning. >> you know this. the worst thing that can happen in theater is you get bored. >> yeah. >> there's nothing new that he's saying. he's got to have sthomething -- >> don't dare him, please. >> interesting point, though, because you see his speeches. he's still talking about his hands. >> exactly. >> several minutes each time. carl icahn and a lot of stuff which he's been talking about. it's slim on policy, details of policy and long on story telling and a lot of the stories we've heard. >> exactly. look how hillary went into this last debate with bernie and sprung that auto bailout and changed the story. >> also the message, you call it boring, well, the message is muddled. it's not clear. the notion that he's not a real conservative may be taking hold. one of the things i'm going to look at tonight is in these states how trump does with self-identified conservative or very conservative voters. he's done well with them in the past. >> also late deciders, again, another thing to look for tonight. i want to thank our panel. we got a lot more, plenty more no come as we countdown to closing time in super tuesday round two and the candidates hit the road campaigning hard to win round three. developments from polling stations, data, and more from our correspondents in the field. stick around. we'll be right back. happening now, breaking news. closing the gap. new national polling showing a trump/cruz dead heat. kasich surge. a disappointment for marco rubio. >> closing countdown, just two hours away from our first results in four states including two that could help cement the lead for some and ice it