State which by the way obamacare has been largely successful, signing up a lot of people there. Matt bevin tweeted from the bottom of my heart, thank you to all who voted today. We are kentucky. What does this mean . This means the south, look at the south right in you, the only state that will have a democrating he governor is virginia right here. The rest, solidly red. Also in the south, phil bryant, incumbent governor of mississippi easily won reelection there. As you noted, a couple interesting ballot mez yoors. Ohio voting to be was deciding whether to be the first state in the midwest to legalize marijuana for medicinal use. It voted no. 36 to 64 . It would have also enshrined a monopoly for marijuana growth to a few farms, including one owned by nick lachey. He tweeted, while i may not have agree people of ohio have spoken. Thats the way its supposed to work. Change takes time, democracy, respect. No marijuana monopoly for nick lachey. In houston, an ordinance passed by the city council several months ago that protected all sorts of groups, banned discrimination banned on race, gender, more approximately Sexual Orientation and protected transgender people. This ordinance was repealed 61 to 39 . This became an interesting battle. Opponents of this measure made it about bathrooms saying that the ordinance protected the rights of men to go into womens bathrooms and perhaps be sexual predators. That measure, again, defeated 61 to 39 . Despite support from Hillary Clinton, despite support from a lot of people in hollywood and even the white house. Michaela . You get points for working in a boy band reference into politics. A grade, john berman. The race for the republican president ial nomination is growing tighter by the day. Take a look the this. Just released National Quinnipiac poll, donald trump and dr. Ben carson locked in a dead heat as the top choice of Republican Voters. Lets get straight to athena jones with more on these numbers. Good morning, michaela. This poll is different from two other National Polls out in recent days that had Carson Opening up a lead. But its still more evidence that the race is shifting. Trump and carson are neck and neck. Theyre within the polls margin error. When you compare the numbers to september, troubles numbers are pretty much unchanged but that carson and ted cruz have each gained six points and marco rubio has jumped five points to third place. Meanwhile, jeb bush, you can see there is way down at 4 . Hes lost six points in that time. Theres more bad news in this poll for bush. He has the worst net unfavorability numbers of any candidate. 58 view him unfavorably and just 25 have a favorable view. Another interesting point to highlight here is that while trump is tied with carson at the top, when the candidates are matched up headtohead against Hillary Clinton, trump is the only one of the top three republican candidates that loses to her. There are also more new numbers out this morning from the wbur poll in the key early voting state of New Hampshire. That poll shows that trump and carson are at the top and other candidates like marco rubio and Chris Christie are making gains. Now, trump is in New Hampshire today filing his paperwork to get on the ballot there and im going to guess hes going to bring up these latest poll numbers. Alisyn, chris . Athena, lets break this down. We have cnn chief National Correspondent and host of inside politics john king and cnn political commentator errol louis and president ial correspondent for the new york times, maggie haber man. J. K. , i start with you. It starts with a t and it rhymes with bull. The word is trouble. The music man. Is that what it was. Yes. I love show tunes and nick lachey. Tell us what what happened yesterday was grim. It is grim. Lets be clear. Its dangerous to overread offyear elections, especially the odd year offyear elections when only a few states vote. Its dangerous to overread any mandate. Its also important what happened here. Look at the state of kentucky. This was the state democrats held up as a National Poster child for obamacare. Steve bashir, he expanded medicaid in the state, put tens of thousands of poor people and others on obamacare. Look, this look works. Matt bevin ran against it. There was also the kim davis issue in that state. You cant say it was any one issue but republicans win in a state where gay rights and obamacare were the issue. In virginia, he wants to keep that state. He invested a lot of money, personal time and prestige in trying to win back the state senate. He failed. Again, taxes were an issue. Tolls were an issue. Democrats tried to call the republicans in those races not jobs on guns and extremists on social issues and they lost. The question now, chris, is how do the parties react to this and perhaps overreact to this . Might republicans overplay their hand and think they have a mandate . Maybe. Might democrats get scared and change how they campaign in 2016 . I would look for that, especially in the short term, especially in the senate races in these tough states. Theres no question, we always talk about how republicans have a problem in president ial years. Turning out, winning when democrats turn out africanamericans and latino voters we learned in 2010, 2014 and again last night, democrats have a huge structural problem in offyear elections. Their base simply doesnt come out and vote. I want to stick with what happened in kentucky for a little longer with matt bevin. Hes likened to donald trump. Hes written about that hes this outsider. He traveled the state in a gold Cadillac Escalade and ran as a selffunding businessman who couldnt be bought off. He had feuds with reporters and said he was black listing some of their outlets. Is there any parallel to be seen with him winning and whats going on with donald trump . Of course. Outsiders are doing well this year. We see that in the National Poll we just discussed, in the state president ial polling that was just discussed. Again, its dangerous to overread these things but matt bevin got crushed by Mitch Mcconnell. He was his opponent. The now Republican Senate majority leader. Mitch mcconnell said his goal was to crush the tea party, which he did. Bevin runs this time, Mitch Mcconnell is now his friend. Bevin runs this time as an outsider, beats jack conway who also lost to rand paul. What the democrats will say is jack conway didnt turn out the africanamerican vote in jefferson county. The outsider wins. As we talk about is carson up, trump up, can marco rubio and ted cruz surge up in the president ial field . Make no mistake about it, voters, especially Republican Voters are looking for Something Different and theyre willing to broaden their horizons as they look for Something Different. Does that end the conversation . All right, lee. John is right. The question is, when you dont want to read too much into it, its an off year, odd year, all that, but sometimes there are anomalies. We can look at what was happening on the National Level with perry and others. Its still not what were seeing with trump and now with carson. Sometimes things change. Whats the argument, that thats what were seeing right now, that this is a Culture Shift politically in terms of where people are coming out . Especially when you look at the referendums. I think to johns point, its easy to overread these elections. Weve collectively gone through that repeatedly since 2010. I think you have to be careful. Ohio in particular was weird. I think that ballot measure was weird. Its hard to make a greater read. Kentucky, you have seen an erosion of Democrats Holding state offices in the south. That basically closed last night. You saw the end of that. The fact that you saw bevin, to your point, its smart, running similar to donald trump in a year where being an outsider is a huge plus. It is seen as your antiestablishment, particularly if youre running for a gab gubernatorial seat. Were talking about one legislative seat, enormous resources poured in. Mike bloomberg came in on one side. He knows how to raise money and organize. He is a good look at democrats at their best in terms of playing the game. Absolutely. And that state actually looks a lot like what the general election electorate looks like for next year. Errol, lets move on to president ial politics. A new quinnipiac poll out minutes ago, its the first poll taken completely since the last debate. Trump and carson, income and neck. Whats interesting, of course, is that marco rubios support has risen fight a bit. Lack at ted cruz, basically doubling his support. Look at bush, halving his support. What do you see . The final an to the question of who won and who lost the debate. Now we know who lost the debate, mr. Bush. We see the three senators seem to be doing well, rubio and cruz are sort of making some headway with voters in a way that maybe was coming from the bush voters. You know, these are both seriously conservative guys. These are people who have gone on the floor of the senate and have made all kinds of statements and tried to stand on principle in ways that the tea party likes and respects. Theyre in sort of the same lane as bush and theyre edging him out. I mean, thats what i see there. You also see carson, of course, this pop. Hes been doing better and better and then we see trump kind of leveling off. The question becomes, what will happen as we get closer an closer . Were under 90 days until iowa and every new debate and certainly the first of the caucuses and primaries is almost an entire sort of reset, you know, the whole National Audience is watching, all of what goes on with this stuff. And lots of people will be making up their mind based on the actual performance of the candidate. Were getting into a real race. The micro, it has to be true. You had the debate. You saw who did well. Impeerically, it has to be true. Political science, they have something they look at called tolerances, the space between the extreme and the middle. The gop, the silent majority that has been reintroduced by donald trump is probably misidentified by him as his group. Its probably the main part of the party that we havent really heard from. Do you think some of that is being reflected in this latest poll, these more traditional gop voters who are looking for some people with experience to pop and they saw that with rubio and to a lesser extent with cruz . I think they saw stronger debate performances by rubio and cruz who are also newer faces, yes, theyre senators but freshman senators. They can more than a jeb bush or more than a longterm politician, more than maybe even another governor say theyre, quote, unquote, new to the system. As cruz and rubio rise up, theyll get more scrutiny. I talked to people studying the data, doing the focus groups and looking at this, the bottom line is Republican Voters care deeply about the selection, more so than democrats at the moment from a passion standpoint. Theyre so frustrated with their own victories. Not only are they mad at president obama and losing the white house twice, they have 31 governors, a big House Majority an you a new Senate Majority. Theyre willing to look outside the atraditional box. If rubio and cruz can crash that, so be it. Well see the scrutiny. The challenge for those guys is, errol made a great point. They have taken votes from jeb bush, maybe some from carly fiorina. If you look at trump and carson, if youre looking at an iowa poll, New Hampshire poll, theyre holding somewhere between 45 and 52 of the vote nationally and in the big key states. If you want to move in this race, it has to come from them. The other candidates are petrified about attacking directly attacking trump or directly attacking carson. Trump because they think they might use a chain saw and carson because republicans love him. Republican voters even voted who arent supporting him view him so favorably. Were inside 90 days. Kanes have been reluctant to go after trump, carson or both in a sustain sustained way, including spending tv dollars. Somebody who want to change the race has to take that risk and take it soon. John, maggie, errol, thanks so much. Coming up in the next hour, well speak to donald trump about the tightening poll numbers and last nights election results. Sting around for that. News breaking overnight. A russian cargo plane with five russian crew members at the helm crashed shortly after takeoff from an airport in south sudan. Police and local media reporting that at least 17 people killed, two people survived. The number of dead is expected to climb higher with reports of people on the ground also being killed. The tail of the plane and other debris scattered across the banks of the white nile river near the airport of juba. Now to the investigation into the deadly airliner crash in egypt. Investigators expanding the search area this morning. This as we learn new details about the final moments of that metrojet flight before it crashed. Cnns Erin Mclaughlin is live in Sharm El Sheikh with the latest. What have you learned, erin . Reporter weve been getting bits and pieces of information, some of that information conflicting. There are lots of questions and very few answers. This morning, afocus of the investigation is on the tail of the plane, found, according to russian state media, about three miles away from the wreckage. The rest of the wreckage, found unburned. Thats potentially significant, because of something that happened in 2001. The very same plane clipped the runway in cairo and was taken for repairs. Experts say that if those repairs are done incorrectly, that could lead to negative consequences for the plane years, even decades later. At the same time, the airline saying that the plane was in perfect condition, that it passed all maintenance checks. Egyptian officials are urging people not to speculate, calling reports that there was a bomb on the plane or it was struck by a missile, as speculative. And at the same time, urging people to wait for the conclusion of this investigation that is still ongoing today at the site. Russian media reporting theyve expanded the search area to 15 square miles. Footage from the site shows russian investigators on the ground being guarded by egyptian military, because after all, it is an area of islamist insurgency. Were waiting for the results, the analysis from the two black boxes. No timetable for that analysis just yet. All right. Thank you very much, erin. You make a key point. This is a dicey area where the plane went down. So far theyve had access and thats allowing them to get answers as quickly as possible. More breaking news, four egyptian officers killed and others wounded after a suicide bomber slammed its car into a Police Social Club in north sinai. State media reporting isis has claimed responsibility for the attack. The jihadists have carried out a string of deadly attacks since the military overthrew morsi in 2013. More on the mysterious crash of metrojet flight 9268. Why are officials expanding the search areas . New clues in the case, next. Also, well talk with donald trump at the top of the hour. Stay tune for that. 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Diis critical for brain health . N brain food, hmmm. Ensure has b vitamins that help support brain health now thats smart nutrition. Ensures complete balanced nutrition has 26 vitamins and minerals and 9 grams of protein. Ensure. Take life in. Some new clues this morning in that metrojet plane crash in egypt. What do these mean . Lets analyze them by bringing in jonathan glynn, he worked as a federal air marshal and navy s. E. A. L. And mary schiavo as well. Great to have both of you and your expertise on this morning. Lets start with the reports coming out of this Russian News Agency about some sounds that were detected in the cockpit. They are described as unexpected, nonstandard sounds. What do those mean to you . What that means is a big and most likely an explosive event was captured on the cockpit voice recording and this is something that they look for in many crashes. For example, in twa 800, the explosive sound they captured on the cockpit voice recording is all they had. The explosion tore way the leads from the instrument to the flight data recorder and so what the National Transportation safety board was compared that explosive sound on the cockpit voice recorder with other crashes. Like pan am 103 or United Airlines 811 where a cargo door ripped off. They fond h they found harmonic signatures. Even if theres an explosive sound it doesnt necessarily tell investigators what it came from and if it was a bomb or some sort of structural deficiency that blew the plane apart. Thats absolutely correct. Thats where our biggest issues are going to be with this investigation. It happened in egypt close to where the vacatio