he did. want to take sides on other ohio questions, one on health care, perhaps. he's a flip-flopper should have been more careful. his critics suggest romney was noncommittal not because he was confused, but because polls now show a majority of ohioans oppose the measure and ohio will be a critical fall 2012 battleground. to those critics, a change of expediency on par with romney's explanation of why he fired for lawn care company. now, romney's advantage in this race is real, very real. but so are the risks. ohio democrats taunted governor romney today suggesting he lacked the courage to tell them to their face, to express his support for anti-union measure while he was right there on monday. is that fair? maybe not. we have already seen what has happened to candidates who are perceived to lack courage. >> president obama said that he designed obamacare after romneycare and basically made it obamneycare. >> governor pawlenty refused to back up the phrase. >> why? >> let me first say to silvia, she put her finger on one of noes important issues facing the country. >> the question, governor, why obamneycare. >> this is another example of him breaking his practice and he has to be held accountable. >> your rival is standing right there. if it was obamney care on fox news sunday, why is it not obamney care with the governor standing right there. >> we also know what happens if the flip-flop label becomes chronic. >> i actually did vote for the $87 billion before i voted against it. >> let's dig deeper on the new numbers and the challenge facing governor romney with cnn contributors mary madeline and tom brownstein and michael crowley with us tonight. mary, we want to dig deep on the numbers in a minute because they tell us about your party and the race. first on this narrative, no question that governor romney leading in the first four states and he has the finances and he has the organizations. he could, emphasis on could lock it up in 100 days but the tv ad spending is just beginning. we know this will be the point of it. how vulnerable he is on this idea that he lacks a core and he's a man of political expediency and not core convictions. >> well, if you look even to these polls, the dynamic hasn't changed in that. there's still some 75% that are for the nonromney candidate. he has not consolidated any of the anti-romney vote and the core of your concern is what you just raised. what is his core? he tried various things. i was a red governor in a blue state or i wouldn't do it in your state or whatever his arguments are, he is somehow not convincing that 75%, which is against him and also in all of these polls that cnn has out today, they're still 3-1 people are undecided. although this looks good for governor romney, i would be asking myself if perry is in such bad shape, why is he still lining up people in states, not only these states but subsequent states? why am i not getting beyond my 25% ceiling? this is still a hugely volatile electorate. >> excellent questions mary raises, gentlemen. let's focus on the particular issues. we know iowa, for example, state number one. we don't know how hard romney plays there. he will eventually have to come out of new hampshire and go to south carolina and evangelical voters important and why did he change the position on adorgz. here's governor romney debating the late senator edward kennedy. romney was the republican nominee against democrat kennedy. the question is abortion. >> i believe that since roe v. wade has been the law for 20 years, we should sustain and support it. i sustain and support that law and the right of a woman to make that choice. >> now, that was then. this is now. >> i believe people understand that i'm firmly prolife. i will support justices who believe in following the constitution and not legislating from the bench. >> there's no question his rivals think this is the vulnerability. listen here, governor rick perry on the o'reilly factor last night going right after whether romney has a core. >> how do you change at the age of 50 or 60 positions on life, positions on guns, positions on traditional marriage? i mean, those aren't minor issues, bill. so, to change those at age of 50 or 60 tells you all you need to know about that. >> by all you need to know, michael, he says political expediency and governor romney is trailing in the polls and we'll show you that in the numbers in a second. he's got a lot of money. i suspect his first ad was positive. that's what we're about to see on television. >> everyone remembers when he tried to make the case he just made and he couldn't get a sentence out straight, it was kind of embarrassing. the case there is pretty easy to make. in that case he was articulating it pretty well and his ads will articulate it very well. he escaped this line of attack in his campaign so far, but it's coming. that's a vulnerability for him. >> they seem to have this perception, it has been litigated. he went through this in the 2008 campaign and it won't have as much of an impact this time. >> it could have an impact, but one thing that is clear in these polls. i disagree with what mary was saying is that the party ay is segmented and the more religious part of the party that continue to show a lot of resistance to romney but fragmenting on who they are coming behind. cain is doing best among them but not consolidating. among voters who do not consider themselves born again christians or do not consider themselves voters of the tea party. romney is making steady progress. he leads in both of those categories in all four states. and i think those voters are probably less likely to be moved by the kind of ideological -- >> let's dig deeper on the point that ron is making. let's go state by state and show you the advantage that romney has at the moment. 69 nights tonight we'll be waiting for the caucus reports. difficult to pull in a caucus state. romney on top, but it's close. interesting, though, ron paul third and newt gingrich and perry just cracking double digits. new hampshire, the former massachusetts governor and he owns a vacation home in new hampshire, look at that, he's the run away leader. hard to take that one away, but iowa could impact the florida polls. now we go to south carolina. this is a fascinating test here. romney went off the rails in this state last time. he leads right now, 25%. but herman cain the surprising conservative challenger, neck and neck. that's a statistical tie right there. florida looks like something like new hampshire. more of a traditional republican party there. romney with a big lead. i want to walk over there to reinforce the point that ron brownstein just made. this is the first election for republicans that we've seen since the election of the tea party. many evangelical voters can be tea party voters but among evangelicals. herman cain has the lead and romney holding his own. if you're rick perry, that's a warning sign to you. but ron's point was among those who do not consider themselves born again christians, that's his advantage in that state. i just want to bring up south carolina to reinforce the point. among born again christians, herman cain. the surprising leader and, again, for rick perry, that's a bad number. those who are not consider themselves born again christians. look at that. mitt romney leads. you have, some of it is a religious divide within the party and some is a class divide within the party, but at the moment, at the moment, mary, let me go to you. if you're looking at a primary race, why can't romney go up. what does he need to do or can he do anything? does he have to hope three or four people from his right stay in at least through three states? >> to the extent that he is making end roads in those groups and i do not want to put all the tea party people into evangelical or christian or any kind of faith-based voting bloc. they're much bigger than that and even bigger than the tea party. they're about a set of principal s. he hasn't demonstrated infid infidelity to those issues. but he, why he is gaining any strength is because he is carrying the banner of inevitability. that is a two-edge sword. if you're the inevitable candidate as mrs. clinton saw in the last race, you have to win everywhere. you just can't make a show in iowa and you have to do better, you have to wipe out in new hampshire because he's been living there for six years and literally lives there and he's got to do. if he wins in south carolina, then this firewall starts in florida. one thing, what do we know john and boys? iowa matters more than we ever think it is going to matter. it impacts the subsequent races in ways that none of have predicted very well in the last couple of cycles. >> that's an excellent point, boys, as mary calls you. we're all friends here. these polls are an important snapshot tonight. this is coming quicker than we think. however, whatever happens in iowa, forget the other state polls after that. >> the presidential primaries are like billiards. its shot changes every subsequent shot on tv. once voters are voting, all of this can change very rapidly. having said that there, mitt romney and in all three states, actually, that we had enough to poll florida, iowa, south carolina, that's almost exactly what he got last time in 2008. what is happening, where i disagree with mary, i think for that more moderate, more secular, more economically focused part of the party, he is more than inevitable, he's a reasonable choice. he's beginning to consolidate that side of the party and the others can't let him continue to kind of grow on that side while they're deviting the more conservative side. >> there is an exception to the rule, for instance, a mike huckabee on the republican side last time won iowa a lot of attention and sensation around here. he didn't go anywhere. barack obama seemed to have changed that dynamic, hillary clinton was able to hold him off in new hampshire after we all pronounced her dead in that state. one other thing i would add is the clinton parallel is very interesting. mitt romney running a clear campaign and excellent in debates. this moment he had today is a little bit of hillary and the driver's licenses. if you show that one moment of weakness. you can have these crystalizing moments and then it becomes a character issue for mitt romney. he's got to be careful of a character-based attack. people just don't think these real. >> the part of the party that is resistant to him behind one candidate, the extent of the party that is open to him is coalescing behind him. >> let me answer that in a different way, but comes with the same point. the enthusiasm gap for, how can i say this? the anti-obama enthusiasm is greater than the lack of enthusiasm for romney. yes, everyone will coalesce around him. john, what can he do? instead of being so in the box, fidelity to the first principles and not a 59-point plan, we want something bold, serious and we can understand the flat tax and the evidence of wanting something like that, it has been out for two days and these polls or other polls, it has three times as great of support as the 9-9-9 plan. so what romney can do to consolidate the cohort you're talking about, to do something, run on that so he has a mandate to make bold tax reform and regulatory reform when he gets elected. >> isn't that part of his problem? he eviscerated the flat tax back in 1996 when he was in massachusetts. he called it the fat cat tax. so, if he embraces it now, doesn't that feed into the narrative of everybody else, what do you stand for? >> well, he's clearly demonstrated his flexibility. so, he's been, you know, the times have changed and we need tax reform more than we ever had before. this is a message race, not a candidate contest. the guy who does the message the right way is going to beat obama. >> real quick, it remains to be seen whether the flat tax can selen in 2012. the environment has changed but by the end of 1996, if you were looking at polling. negative for steve forbes. perry try to put out flat tax 2.0 to respond to the forbes tax plan in '96. big tax cut for people that top and $900 billion a year when fully phased in and that is a lot to swallow even for republican primary voters concerned about the deficit. >> even if it is exciting for republican primary voters, not going to play well in the center. one thing we haven't mentioned mitt romney's -- certainly like someone against herman cain. you'll see him making that argument more exmr. you could see them winding up with a guy that they think can win. >> democrats sometimes accept the electability. i'm waiting to see if they can sort ideology, electability. rick perry says it may have been a mistake to take part in the republican debates. here's the question we will answer next. will he start dodging them now? 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let's ask his top spokesman. ray sullivan and our conservative contributor dana lash. ray sullivan on that question. the governor clearly not happy with the structure and format of the debates. does that mean he will not play in some of them? >> well, john, there have been eight republican debates so far, five since governor perry got in. we certainly respect the process, but when you've got eight or nine candidates and 30 seconds to a minute, it takes valuable time to away from campaigning in iowa, as those elections approach. >> do i take that as -- are you saying he is going to look over the calendar and scratch some of them out? >> john, i think 18 more in the planning phases. there's no way that the candidates can do all those debates. >> dana, can governor perry afford now whether you accept or disagree with his format. i feel for the candidates and i learned a lot of lessons myself. hard with seven or eight candidates up there. now that he is at third and fourth in some states, start saying i am not going to come to your debate? >> i don't think he can at this point. i do kind of agree, it's difficult to get in a really good sound bite because so much of politics is based on good sound bites. we have a couple candidates, herman cain and newt gingrich who really understand this. they're always prepared with a quick 60-second remark. it could be very, very difficult and the scrutiny is hard but i don't think perry can debate it. he has a great war chest, he unrolled his job's plan and he unrolled his tax plan and that's what a lot of people wanted to see. we now want to see how aggressive he can be in these debates and whether or not, because of his performance and rhetorical skills, he can turn this into a two-man race. >> the question to get the candidates to stir it up. that's his perspective. this is brian williams asking the questions during an nbc debate. this is not a question to ask governor perry to stir it up, this is a question about his record. >> texas ranks last among those who have completed high school. there are only eight other states with more living in poverty, no other state has more working at or below the minimum wage. so, is that the kind of answer all americans are looking for? >> actually, what americans are looking for is someone who can get this country working again. and we put the model in place in the state of texas. >> and one more example right here is anderson cooper at our most recent debate asking a question, again not getting the governor to stir things up, but trying to ask him about his record. >> governor perry in the last debate governor perry pointed out that texas has one of the highest rate of uninsured children in the country. over 100 million kids. how do you explain that? >> the fact is we have a huge number of illegals that are coming in to this country. and they're coming into this country because the federal government has failed to secure that border. but they're coming here because dollar is a magnet. and the magnet is called jobs. those people who hire illegals ought to be penalized. and, mitt, you lose all of your standing from my perspective because you hired illegals in your home and you knew about it for a year. >> forgive me, ray sullivan, but the complaint is that the moderators are trying to stir things up he was asked about his record and has every right to do this, but the governor stirring things up there, wasn't it? >> well, look, every candidate has to fight for their time. we certainly understand that. there is a time and place for these things, john. but when you're talking about 18 more debates, particularly now as people are starting to think about heading to the polls. we're about 60 days away from votes being cast. the candidates need to spend time in iowa doing those town halls and spending a lot more time with the voters who oftentimes have the best questions and press the candidates the hardest. >> do you have a number? you keep saying 18 on the books. i think you're right, might be 100 on the books or 18. i think 12 that have been officially agreed to and a crazy number, some people think. do you have a number now? do you know who is going to be in these two or three or are you still debating that? >> i know for sure november 9th on another network we're going to participate in that. but, look, we're taking each of these as they come. examining the schedule and examining the opportunities and the opportunity costs and, again, we recognize we need to be in iowa and new hampshire, south carolina, florida and nevada and talking to those voters and giving them a chance to exercise their responsibility to vet the candidates, to have town hall meetings and to talk about the issues that are important to them. >> dana, governor huntsman tried that in the nevada debate, we polled in new hampshire since that debate and let me just say kindly, it didn't work. so my question is, in this environment, i understand ray's point and governor perry was the last candidate into the race. he is newer to the voters in new hampshire, south carolina and the like. but right now rick perry