show you its powerful punch in many forms. right here the pace of change is slow yet certain. last night we showed you the spillway from above a helicopter ride. the gates open toded to the gates open toded t divert wr away from mississippi. now the water is rising slowly as you see it. you see the rails that go up behind my shoulder. nose are normally dry. that's the edge of the river. it's rising more slowly than the engineers originally predicted. the folks were told by the mississippi crests near here next tuesday many of the homes could be underwater. dwayne moved here four months ago for the peace and quiet. he likes the birds and the schools. >> a lot of broken hearts right now. a lot of broken hearts. but in the back of our mind we all knew that it would happen. we just didn't know when. so we just, like i said, we just deal with it. that's all we can do. >> tonight there's a bit of a mixed message from political leaders. on one hand they're pleased with flood control and diversion efforts. in some areas they believed would see deep flooding now may see much less water. yet governor jindal warned the record water levels could last for more than a month and urged people not to get complaisant. more than 4,800 people displaced by the flooding in mississippi. here in louisiana, 4,000 people evacuated so far. most of them, like these neighbors right here, not sure what will be here if and when they're able to return. it is something to watch. the mississippi is methodical but powerful. take a look at these pictures. the swollen river and the steady current as it approaches not just mississippi. on the left of the screen is louisiana. on the right is natchez. mostly built up on the hills. some low lying homes are being wiped out. and look at this. is this a schoolyard? not exactly. this is a recreation area for members of the united states coast guard. this is their station in mississippi. normally this is a parking lot. across the river we arrive this morning to find a red hot mayor. he just reached the barriers around his town's river front convention center. the coast guard refused to stop the barge traffic that kicks up big waves and brings up more water. the coast guard put a 24-hour freeze on traffic. and the mayor said he's now confident a $100 million waterfront development should suffer only minimal damage. >> $100 million worth of investment we have on the river front. very vital to the economy. it's 300 jobs. it's, of course, the economic impact would be astronomical. >> more of our day in a few moments. let's touch base with correspondents tracking the impact of this record flooding. martin savage is in mississippi. first to david mattingly in louisiana. the community is a virtual ghost town, and a place with a new challenge tonight, looting. david? >> reporter: that's right, john. looting is a component of just about any natural disaster, and just as authorities have tried to stay out in front of the flood, they now want to try to get out in front of the looting. t the problem they have now is the flood is not coming as fast as they hoped it would. when people thouggot the evacua orders, they thought the water would be up to here now. instead we have big ghost towns, these empty houses on dry land, and authorities are very concerned, keeping an eye in this parish alone, on about 700 empty houses. but the sheriff here is also taking it a step further, preparing water patrols to go out onto the water to watch for waterfront houses, to take care of them. also to be prepared for when the waters do get here to take advantage of the boats, to get to these house where the looters themselves may be using boats to go in. we saw one house today that had a six-foot wall of sand and plastic around it, very effective at keeping the floodwaters out, but not so much against the looters. listen. is that going to be enough to keep looters out? >>. >> no. >> that's what you're here for. >> that's my job, yes. looters, there's a stairway they can crawl over. they'll bring whatever they need to get in. they'll have to come by boat. if they have to get in, they will. so we're going to be here by boat, protecting this. >> about 10% of the people in areas asked to evacuate are staying behind. the biggest reason for that 10% is to watch their property. they'll take their chances with mother nature, john, but not always with human nature. >> david mattingly, live for us in louisiana tracking that important story. we flew over a good chunk of the flood zone yesterday, and from up above it gives you a great appreciation for the levy system. the traces, the path of the mighty mississippi. it is first and foremost a flood wall. as martin savage tells us tonight, when the roads are underwater it can also double as an access trail to places like eagle creek, mississippi. martin? >> reporter: yeah, we just want to show you one other thing before we get rolling. that's look at the scene behind us. it looks like an idealic canal, perhaps, north of vicksburg. then have the camera pan onto the left, and you realize we're on the street. it's the middle of the community. it's another community up here. five suburbs that are now completely inundated with water. for these people, that water is going to be there a long time. it is water that is coming off a number of the major arteries around this town, and around this area. one of the scenes we looked at today was highway 61. highway 6 1 is a major north/south, very historic artery. the problem is now, the water has gone completely over that roadway. we road on that roadway just two days ago. now it looks like it's a lake that is out there. that's disrupting commercial traffic. it's also disrupting emergency traffic. and that's the problem for the town of eagle lake. which is kind of like what we saw there in david mattingly's spot, in that you have a community of well over a thousand people that have been totally evacuated. the area is completely isolated with one exception, the main route in is now riding on the main mississippi levy. not the usual form of transportation, but that's how we traveled to get in. and once you arrive, it is a ghost town. there is nobody or very few people there. and the water is not in that city at al. however, you have the mississippi levy on one side. you have the backwater levy on the other side. they're just considered to be too great a threat. and it takes too long for emergency responders to get there if there was an emergency. so take everybody out. in the meantime, sheriffs patrols routinely go through the streets. they're there, even if the people are not. john in? >> martin savage for us tonight near vicksburg, mississippi. this is a blue collar place. sugar cane is biggest farm crop. the parish president is with us now to discuss the punishing impact of this flooding. thanks for being with us on a difficult night. as you look around this community. this would be dry. the edge of the river would be, gosh, 50 yards out that way. how many homes, how many homes in your parish do you expect because of the decision to deliberately flood it, will be buried? >> i would say about a thousand homes will be flooded in both upper and lower saint martin parish. that's just an estimate. we're going off the course decision and the weather forecasters saying the river should be at habit 27 feet. that's what we're basing the decision on. we're taking one on the chin not only for america but for louisiana as well. >> you say taking it on the chin, people are i'm sure applauding you, people in new orleans and baton rouge are grateful. what is it like when you say to somebody, who maybe asked time you asked for their vote, now you're saying, i'm sorry, but your house is going to be gone. >> it's a tough deal. it's heart renching. we recognize the mississippi river is what made louisiana what it is. a very profitable river for us. a lot of us make our living based on what goes on in the mississippi river. it's hard when you visit with a family who own and operate everything they have in the area. the decision has been made. we're just going to have to battle it. but we're fighting people. >> how are may made whole if the government takes my house, they have to compensate me, what happens to these folks? >> some of them have insurance. some of them don't. fema said they would come in and help where they can. again, we're fighting people. and at the end of the day the water is going to rise, but we're going to rise as well. >> a blue collar community. average income in the 30,000 range a year. people who shrimp and crawfish. a lot of farming in the community. you ever seen anything like this? >> the weird part is we're in the middle of a drought. my parish hadn't seen significant rain for some time. federal floodwaters. we have to deal with it. >> because of the draught, this water is not as high as you would have thought 48 hours ago when they opened up the spillway and let it out. does that leave you confident that in the end you will lose a thousand homes but not 1,500? the original forecast was 29 feet. we were in a panic here. we based our decision based on 29 feet. we have move that had a little bit and went to plan "b" at 27 feet. but in a sense, it's still a lot of water. it's still a lot of water. >> and these homes right where we are now. these homes are up on stilts. the shed is already in the water. this water eventually, the crest will be around tuesday. you still have a week before you get the biggest crest. how high will this water get? >> that water will reach the shed. probably be in it. definitely over those people's porch right there. >> you believe these houses, because of the lower water and because of where we are, particularly higher area, not a high area, but a higher area, they'll be okay. >> right. they built on the river. they built with that in mind. we received backwater flooding. the rest of the community is not protected by the levy behind us. the water will come behind us and flood us from the back side. it's basically where most of our damage will be. >> i appreciate your time tonight. best of luck in the days ahead. still ahead, a closer look at the impact of these rising floodwaters. >> going to have a tremendous amount of infrastructure repair we'll have to do. we have streets and sewage and drainage. i've been here all my life. >> never soon anything like this? >> never have. it's just unbelievable. >> but next, other news tonight. al qaeda has a new leader. an egyptian but perhaps not the man you expected. ♪ [ male announcer ] humble beginnings are true beginnings. they are the purest way to gauge success. ♪ maybe the only way to gauge success. but the most powerful thing about humble beginnings is that they are... ♪ ...humbling. ♪ show where you're going without forgetting where you're from. ♪ live pictures tonight from louisiana. it looks beautiful, doesn't it? that water is not supposed to be there only way over behind the trees should you be able to see the river. that is water released from the spillway was opened. these communities being deliberately flooded to divert the waters from baton rouge and new orleans. more on the flood prevention efforts under way in mississippi and louisiana. tonight al qaeda has an interim replacement for osama bin laden. he's an egyptian named saif al-adel. cnn has been told he's been appointed interim chief of al qaeda because the community has grown restless about the lack of a formal announcement about bin laden's successor. fran townsend is here. both the department of homeland security and the cia. and with us from washington, peter bergen. you studied al qaeda for some time. why now, and why not the number two, al-zawahiri, but this man? >> well, according to the source of this story, a long time associate of both bin laden and zawahiri. they were getting restless about the lack of a normal announcement about somebody to replace bin laden. they tapped saif al adel, who has been involved in anti-american activity since 1993. been involved in jihadist activities to be the de facto leader of al qaeda while they seek the formal announcement of perhaps what will turn out to be zawahiri. that hasn't happened. >> fran townsend, take us through files. when you were in the bush files, did saif al-adel come to your attention? >> absolutely. saif al-adel is a certified ally. he's indicted in the united states, here in the southern district of snooi for his planning role in the east africa embassy bombings in 1998. this is a guy who sits on the military, is rumors to have sat on the military council. the ruling council of al qaeda. after the u.s. began bombing afghanistan, he flood with bin laden and at least two of his sons. this guy has real credibility within the ranks. he set up training camps in somalia and afghanistan. he was also the one who authorized and advocated for the beginning of terrorist activities inside saudi arabia in 2003. in 2004 the saudis got his diary there, and it revealed he had been one of the few senior guys in al qaeda briefed on the use of planes for the 9/11 attack. he has a different philosophy than bin laden did. he looks at regional conflicts. he's out of egypt. he's a member of the islamic jihad, responsible for the assassination of sidat. so he's very focused on local regional conflicts and unseating those in power. >> and peter, we talked about this since the death of bin laden, who would they choose. you talked about they may not want al zawahiri because he's an egyptian. now the interim leader is another egyptian. is it an act of defiance or a test? >> it may be the latter. zawahiri is an egyptian who has been involved in jihadi activities. that's the most holy land of islam. there was a certain constituency in al qaeda who would like a saudi or yemeni. a lot of the leaderships of al qaeda have been e jap chan, and so this may be their way of testing the waters for the ve h eventual takeover of zawahiri, who has been around for a limon time. >> in the sense of the hunt for bin laden is over, many watching would ask the question, why haven't we been able to find the number two or now the new number one? >> well, it waltzs into the issue of the day, and that's cooperation with pakistan. in addition to these guys, the network working to kill u.s. soldiers in afghanistan. there's the council. there are plenty of people if pakistan was so inclined to be of assistance, they could do that. sources say it's to make sure intelligence and military officials can work through some of their issues. they need to be deliverable when she comes out of the meetings in pakistan. hopefully, john, it would lead to the capture or killing of additional leaders of al qaeda. >> peter, any other message in this appointment or announcement or development in the sense that since the death of bin laden, when we're getting source accounts of what's in the compound in pakistan, there has been talk of rift. fran just mentioned he wants to focus on regional conflicts. we know from the documents and sources there have been tensions that some of the ranking file thought bin laden was too obsessed with the united states, too worried about big grand scale attacks. does this appointment send any kind of message in that apointment? >> i think it does. it was predictable in the wake of bin laden's death there would be a debate about leadership, direction of the group, all the things were predicted before bin laden died. and they're happening. and that's a good thing. and we're seeing probably disputes internally, not only just about the leadership, but also about the future direction. those disputes have always been latent and bin laden was able to paper over them. he was a big temp leader. somebody with a lot of charisma. somebody that people within the group really loved. those disputes have been there for more than a decade. now we'll see more of this as time goes on. what are their sense of the conversations whether turmoil or transition at the top of al qaeda? >> well, it's clear. peter mentioned it. there are real tepgss. tensions. and now i believe the naming of an interim leader allows more time and opportunity for this to become divisive. no question. someone who is a real leader in terms of operational capability has anwar al-alaki. we can expect the affiliate groups will jockey for prestige, for power, and to control the future direction of al qaeda. he has continued to try to target the united states. whether the attempted underwear bomber on a christmas day plane. the computer cartridges and cargo planes or nidal hasan at ft. hood. he represents that faction of targeting western interests as opposed to saif al-adel. and what the intelligence community hopes for is just such tension, just such conflict. >> fran townsend, peter bergen, important help on an important story tonight. thank you both. when we come back. more coverage of the flooding impact. still to crest where we are in louisiana. we'll go to this louisiana. we'll go to mississippi. enwe'll talk to chad myers. he'll help us understand why this flood is shattering the records [ woman speaking chinese ] thank you. do you have an english menu? 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