News, analysis and interviews with politicians and observers. When the public trial for the drug was about to be announced as a failure. Want to read a little from the complaint. Mis 416 had the potential to be an enormously profitable if the drug trial was successful. The drug, however, failed the drug trial. Public announcement of these results caused the stock price to drop by 92 . In or about june of 2017, Christopher Collins violated the duties he owed to innate by Passing Material Nonpublic information regarding the Drug Trial Results to his son the defendant so that Cameron Collins could use that information to make timely trades in innate stock and tip others. In detail, it was stunning from the actual complaint itself, those phone calls or the initial ones from the congressman to his sn, they took place on the grounds of the white house, during the white house congressional picnic. Anybody who has been paying attention to Chris Collins on capitol hill the last couple of years it was no secret his role in this company, his belief in this company, how much he touted
this company. Hed talk about it with his colleagues on the house floor, in the house speakers lobby and his lawyers are already making clear they plan on a robust defense. Want to read one piece of a statement which says it is notable that even the government does not allege that Congressman Collins traded a single share of inate stock. Were confident hell be completely vindicated and exonerated. Its worth noting he will be arraigned at 2 30 here in manhattan. And its also worth noting that this was not the first time Congressman Collins and his relationship with this company had come to the fore. Obviously, he had been talking about it regularly. Also significant ethical concerns. The Office Of Congressional Ethics did a detailed investigation into his ties to the company, including showing evidence that he had been Lobbying Members of the government about the company itself. He sat on the committee. The house energy and commerce that oversaw the company. And they House Ethics Committee was engaged in its own investigation related to this. So that issue is not new but the complaint that was laid out
using this to underscore whery y they believe republicans in charge havent been able to deliver and undercut everything President Trump promised on the Campaign Trail about the swamp. Phil, stand by. Lets listen to this press conference. We have our legal analyst standing by with me in studio to share the reporting on their insights after we listen in. Dana bash, michael scheer, karen and niamalika hendson. First well hear from Jeffrey Berman and the investigators up in new york as we wait for this to unfold. Theyre bringing the props into the room. As they start to do that, lets start our conversation and forgive me here we go. Lets go. The Southern District of new york. Today we announced criminal charges against Christopher Collins, a United States congressman. Congressman collins is charged with Insider Trading and lying to the fbi. As alleged in the indictment,
Congressman Collins cheated our markets and our Justice System in two ways. First, he tipped his son to confidential Corporate Information at the expense of regular investors, and then he lied about it to Law Enforcement to cover it up. Also charged is his son, Cameron Collins, and steven czarsky, the father of camerons fiance. These charges are a reminder that this is a nation of laws and that everybody stands equal before the bar of justice. Now id like to go into the details of the allegations a little more. In addition to serving in the house of representatives, Congressman Collins was also on the Board Of Directors of innate
immuno therapeutics, a publicly traded company that was developing a drug for Multiple Sclerosis. In june of 2017, Congressman Collins was told some confidential and highly Sensitive Information about innate. Information that was not yet made public. Namely, that innates main drug, the drug innate was developing to be the backbone of its company, was a total failure. This was devastating information for the company. Congressman collins had an obligation, a legal duty to keep that Information Secret until that information was released by the company to the public. But he didnt keep it secret. Instead, as alleged, he decided to commit a crime. Other friends and relatives sold. All because Congressman Collins violated his duty to keep inates Information Secret. And when the news of the drugs failure became public, the stock plummeted. In total, the conspirators used the Inside Information to avoid over 750,000 in losses. But Congressman Collins couldnt keep his crime a secret forever. The fbi asked to interview him, and instead of telling the truth, he lied. And so did Cameron Collins and so did steven czarsky. By lying to the fbi, they compounded their Insider Trading crime with the crime of criminal coverup. Now id like to go over these charges which summarize some of
the allegations in the indictment. The first charge is a tipping change. It demonstrates the flow of the illegal Insider Information and the trading, the illegal trading of that information. At the top of the chain, Congressman Collins. He had an obligation as innate board member when he received confidential Corporate Information to receive that Information Secret until the Company Announced it to the public. In total disregard of that obligation, minutes after Congressman Collins received the devastating, highly confidential news that innates drug had failed its drug trial, Congressman Collins tipped that Inside Information to his son so
that his son could trade. Cameron collins. When he received that illegal Inside Information, he did two things, both of which are illegal. He sold stock based on that Inside Information and avoided 570,000 in losses. And he also took that illegal Inside Information and tipped others. He tipped his fiance. He tipped his fiances wife. He tipped his fiances father and he tipped a friend. All of whom traded on that illegal Inside Information. Steven czarsky, his fiances father, avoided 143,000 in losses by trading on that information and he tipped others. He tipped his brother. He tipped his sister. And he tipped a friend. Two of whom traded on the information. One attempted to trade on the information, but was unable. In total, the conspirators avoided losses of over 768,000 all because of the initial illegal Insider Trading tip by Congressman Collins. In this chart, we set some of the key allegations in the indictment against a timeline, a backdrop of the innate share price. On the evening of june 22nd, 2017, Congressman Collins was at a congressional picnic. And at 6 55, he received an email from the ceo of innate informing him of the horrendous news that the drug had failed
its trial. 7 10 p. M. , Congressman Collins responded to that email. So as the indictment alleges, at least at 7 10 p. M. , Congressman Collins was aware of the Inside Information. A minute later, Congressman Collins attempted to call his son. In a period of five minutes, there are six unsuccessful calls. On the seventh call, 7 16 p. M. , as alleged in the indictment, Congressman Collins tips illegally tips his son cameron about the Drug Trial Results so that his son cameron could trade on those results. Later that evening on june 22nd,
after Cameron Collins has the illegal Insider Trading information, Cameron Collins drives with his fiance to his fiances parents house. They arrive at the house at 9 17 p. M. Less than 20 minutes later at 9 34 p. M. , the fiances mother is on the phone with her broker beginning the process of selling her shares of innate. The next morning on june 23rd, at 7 42 a. M. , Cameron Collins begins the process of selling his shares of innate. During june 23rd and june 26th, Cameron Collins sells approximately 1. 39 million shares of innate. Prior to the market close of june 26. After the market closes, innate announces to the public that its drug had failed the trial. And the next day, the drug price, the price of innate, falls off a cliff. It drops 92 in value in a single day. This was the drop that was anticipated by the coconspirators. This was the drop in value that the coconspirators avoided by selling their shares for the public announcement. And they could only sell those shares by virtue of the initial tip of Inside Information by Congressman Collins. A case of this type and significance, obviously, involves the s. E. C. And the fbi
and their representatives are standing up here with me today. To my left is my good friend bill sweeney, the assistant director in charge of the fbis new york field office. And to the far left is john brosnan, the special agent in charge of the fbi new york office criminal division. The fbis work on this case was spectacular, and i want to thank them for their professionalism and dedication. We work with the fbi on so many important cases, and it is always a privilege. To the left of bill is stephanie and steve pecan who are codirectors of the s. E. C. s division of enforcement. I want to thank them and the s. E. C. For their hard work on this matter. Last, i want to acknowledge and thank the Career Prosecutors in
my office handling the case. To my right is max nicholas, damian williams, bob allen, Scott Hartman and the cochiefs of our securities and Commodities Fraud Task force, tim and jason. Congressman collins who, by virtue of his office, helps to write the laws of our nation acted as if The Law Didnt Apply to him. Charges today demonstrate once again that no matter what the crime and no matter who committed it, we stand committed in the pursuit of Justice Without fear or favor. I would now like to invite to the podium bill sweeney. Thank you, geoff. Good afternoon, everybody. U. S. Representative Christopher Collins sat on innates Board Of Directors for a period of more than three years. Spanning the runup to the Drug Trial Announcement in mid2017. Collins himself was the companys largest shareholder. In or about the summer of 2017, a drug designed to treat a debilitating form of Multiple Sclerosis had entered the late stages of a phase 2b Clinical Trial. This drug, mis416, was the only viable drug in the pipeline for innate. This is significant in that the companys value was nearly completely wrapped up in the success of the Clinical Trial and subsequent phase three trial. On the evening of june 22nd, 2017, collins received an email informing him that mis416 had failed its Clinical Trial. Electronic records indicate his initial shock at having received the news. The drug once anticipated to hold billions of dollar in value would now be the cause of significant financial loss for innate and, of course, its investors, many of whom shared a personal relationship with Congressman Collins. While the congressman was legally bound to keep his information confidential until the Trial Results were released to the investing public four days later on june 26th, we allege he did not. The indictment charges that collins immediately began contacting the family and friends he had brought into the fold. This set off a Ripple Effect in which many investors directly or indirectly connected to Congressman Collins were notified. Most of them quickly sold their shares. Innates stock price plummeted 92 on the first trading day following the public announcement. But collins conspirators had saved themselves over 750,000
in losses. Collins himself, having been prohibited from selling his shares for various reasons, did not avoid a financial loss. Despite this fact, his alleged actions bought him facetoface with federal agents who had become aware of the crime that had been committed. When questioned by Law Enforcement about the alleged dealings, Congressman Collins, his son cameron, camerons fiances father steven czarsky, lied, plain and simple. Today they are charged with Insider Trading and lying to federal Law Enforcement agents. While collins may have thought giving his family and friends a headsup about material nonpublic information would benefit them in the long run, heres a better inside tip for those who think they can play by a different set of rules. Access to this kind of information carries with it significant responsibility. Especially for those in society who hold a position of trust. Act honorably and in accordance
with the law and do not lie to Special Agents of the fbi. Many thanks to our partners, especially geoff and your team of Career Prosecutors. Your work has been exceptional. To the s. E. C. , i personally want to thank stephanie and steve for your work. Your team has been outstanding. To john who leads the White Collar Branch and to your investigators, i want to extend my personal appreciation. Some are standing in the back in the shadows but to nick, john, yolena and tracy, your work has been exceptional. What you do in the Community Matters and makes a difference. Thank you. Listening to william sweeney, the assistant director in charge of the new york field office. Thats geoffrey berman, the u. S. Attorney in the Southern District of new york outlaying in riffeting detail Insider Trading charges against a sitting member of the United States congress. Paul our legal analyst is with us. The congressman says he is innocent. He says this did not happen. When you watch geoffrey berman
go through those charts and the tick tock of the timing and to hear the fbi agent in charge talk about the electronic records they have, what does that tell you about this case . Well, that presentation, i think, demonstrated a very clearcut case against the congressman and members of his family and also the czarsky family. These cases sometimes are dry and difficult to understand because of their complexity, but those charts demonstrated how a classic insider trade iing case works. One, you have the congressman on the Board Of Directors of the company innate. He gets Inside Information. And he has an obligation, they call it a fiduciary obligation, not to reveal confidential information. It may affect the stock price or welfare of the company. Instead he transmits that information to his son who say heavy stockholder in the company and he transfers it to his fatheriflaw and other family
members and we have a trading fest going on during which they save 750,000 in potential losses because of the Insider Information. The poor members of the public who find out about it the next day get crushed because the stock plummets by over 90 . This is a classic Insider Trading case. And whats not classic about it, though, is we have a congressman who sat on the Board Of Directors of a company, pharmaceutical type company, that was doing, you know, a major trial in a case. He makes the laws releasing to this. Hes the one the fda answers to in these trials. So i think thats very surprising in and of itself. Forgive me. Im not sure if this is a legal question or Common Sense Question in the sense that if this played out as just detailed by the u. S. Attorney, seven times trying to call his son on a cell phone, standing on the white house grands because hes there for congressional picnic. Then they go to the fiances familys house. Then the next day they sell the
stock, he knows hes under investigation already in the house. He knows his position in this company is publicly well known. Isnt it pretty stupid to think you could get away with this . Its completely idiotic. Every Telephone Call the feds can trace. Every text message, by the way, a bunch of Text Messages were sent. And they probably through the use of gps and whatnot they can even track the car. And who knows what they were tracking because hes been under investigation by the congress and who knows, maybe by the fbi for a long time. So, yeah, its the dumbest Insider Trading crime ive ever seen. We have to i have to say alleged, though. Alleged Insider Trading. Yes, you do. The congressman says hell vigorously fight this. But what a case laid out by the Southern District the u. S. Attorney for the Southern District. Paul, appreciate your insight. Lets bring it into the room for the political discussion. Legal and political. I want to remind people. This is by no means to suggest President Trump has anything to do with this. He has nothing to do with this based on anything we know so far. Its because he was high profile in the trump campaign, on television frequently. Ive heard this name before. I think i recognize that guy in the picture. He was the ffrts congressman to enfor endorse candidate trump. Hes been a tv defender. Donald trump has accomplished in this primary is unprecedented. Hes spent very little money. He has rounded up the delegates that no one thought any of the original 17 would have by this point. Donald trump is absolutely brilliant. Donald trump is a winner. Donald trump wants to win. The temperament and personality of donald trump is exactly what america wants. The Energy Behind donald trump is like no one has ever seen. Again, i do that, theres no
connection to President Trump here. Its just that this is a face that Many Americans will recognize when they see it because of his highprofile here. Also the fact, this is the stuff that you want to know why one of the reasons donald trump is president. Why america hates washington. A Congressman Standing on the white house grounds alleged to have called his son and tipped him off in an Insider Trading. If you saw this on house of cards. So the president is going to be there and have the congressman over for a picnic. Hes going to get the call from this ceo and call his son. Youd be like, really . This would never happen. Nobody would do that. Too obvious. And look what were seeing. This is real life. And i think that youre right. And this is the important point here beyond the unbelievable alleged stupidity that were seeing here is that were seeing it we saw it last night. Were going to see it up through november in terms of how the voters react to washington. That has not changed. Donald trump is a reaction to like you said, that kind of allegation. It is the swampiest thing you could possibly the argument he made against Hillary Clinton. Dont think the rules apply to them. Donald trump may be isolated, might be in a class of his own is allegations he has to face and maybe hes got a lot more teflon around him. But others do not. And when its somebody who is so close to the president , it can help. What i was going to say, youre right that from a strict legal standpoint we dont have any indication theres a connection between donald trump and the crime here, but theres at least a couple of reasons why donald trump has got to be watching this with some alarm, right . One is just because here is yet another person connected to the trump orbit who is swampier than anybody. Weve had so many of these sort of scandals. The corruption in the cabinet and members of congress. People that are negotiated with donald trump and the mafrnafort gates trial under way as we speak. The foellow that folks just watched, geoffrey berman, southern new York District attorney. If you are donald trump and looking at, this is a dry run, a kind of this is the kind of detail, the kind of methodical prosecutorial effort that this guy is going through, if not more, in the cohen case. Appointed by donald trump. Appointed by donald trump. Not somebody who is a witch hunt. No 17 angry democrats here. Not yet. Well see what donald trump, what is his reaction because weve seen his reaction to Paul Manafort basically saying hes being railroaded. I think for democrats, this provides yet another bullet point in their argument that the republicans are basically swampier than the swamp. That theyre not out for the
little guy. Theyre basically using their access and their privilege to make the lives of their family and friends and other rich guys easier. Youll see this. It reminds me of 2006 with mark foley. Obviously, a different kind of case, but they were also able to say this was more broadly the Republican Party. And you dont want them in control anymore. Issuing a statement showing this shows a rampant culture of corruption. Selfenrichment of republicans in washington today. Im going to guess thats going to show up in campaign ads pretty soon. The timing is horrible for the republican leadership. Collins is not a senior member. Hes not a part of the leadership but he is a frequent defender of the president on television. 89 days from Midterm Election and its already a steeper than steep hill for the Republican Party anden wham. One of your members accused of this. And any seat that can potentially be in play is bad for the gop because theyre playing so close to the wire and a good thing for democrats. Any highprofile person, its
not like its paul ryan or something, but has a Potential Ricocheting Effect on how people start to view and question the integrity of various members of the gop, especially those tying themselves more close to the president. Thats not based on any sort of direct connection of order thats going on but its just the Mental Association of people you see on television being the surrogates for the president. And it raises brought up questions about that, too, about where accountable is going to start and where its going to stop. Theres no way of directly predicting. You cant draw a straight hard line between this episode and how a voter who may be on the fence would feel in a district thats a swing district, whether its Chris Collins. But its something the president has to address. I wonder how long it takes him to disavow the support he got from collins or potentially or not. Its just about other people that end up not being any more like but maybe hell also defend him. To button this up. You saw that presentation from
geoffrey berman. If youre michael cohen, yoouu thinking, this guy is good. You personally interviewed mr. Berman when you pushed out the obama holdout who was in that job. You interviewed mr. Berman. Hes a former law partner of rudy giuliani, is he not . Hes of the president s personal attorney now. This is a trump appointee personally interviewed by the president who understands the sensitivity of this Southern District of new york. The congressman says hes innocent and will fight it. Well keep track of these fallouts. Rudy giuliani says team trump now sending a new offer to the special counsel about the terms of a possible emphasis on possible facetoface interview with the president. Until i held her. Managing my type 2 diabetes wasnt my top priority. I found my tresiba® reason. Now im doing more to lower my a1c. I take tresiba® once a day. Tresiba® controls blood sugar for 24 hours for powerful a1c reduction. woman wed been counting down to his retirement. It was our tresiba® reason. He needs insulin to control his High Blood Sugar and, at his age, hes at greater risk for low blood sugar. Tresiba® releases slow and steady and works all day and night like the bodys insulin. vo tresiba® is a longacting insulin used to control High Blood Sugar in adults with diabetes. Dont use tresiba® to treat diabetic ketoacidosis, during episodes of low blood sugar, or if you are allergic to any of its ingredients. Dont share needles or insulin pens. Dont reuse needles. The most common side effect is low blood sugar, which may cause dizziness, sweating, confusion, and headache. Check your blood sugar. Low blood sugar can be serious and may be lifethreatening. Injection site reactions may occur. Tell your prescriber about all medicines you take
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interview with the president. Giuliani telling dana bash, who is with us on the panel, the counteroffer is, in his words, a goodfaith attempt to reach an agreement. But that counteroffer still appears to draw a line in the sand over what questions mueller can and cannot ask the president. For example, what did you say about flynn . Why did you fire comey . They already know our answer. If they can show us something in that area that didnt involve those direct questions that we didnt consider perjury traps, wed consider it. Forgive me, but weve had these offers and counteroffers Predating Giuliani and now for months since giuliani has come into the lead. Is this a stall to get mueller to decide, yes or no, will you subpoena the president , or are they inching toward a process closer to agreement . The short answer is we really dont know the answer. There is sort of the legal perspective of this and the political perspective of this. And they, in some ways, are
contradictory. The legal perspect sieve lets get this done. The people on the president s team who are lawyers and not politicians. On the political side, theres a growing understanding and school of thought that the longer this drags out, meaning like at this point, were second week in august, were talking about three more weeks until labor day, the harder it will be politically for Robert Mueller to say, im going to interview the president or maybe even issue a subpoena because its in that traditional window of not doing it labor day until the elections. Thats sort of the long answer. And they are in the dark. Were all in the dark about what Robert Mueller is doing. Theyre in the dark as well. All they know is what they have on paper from mueller in these back and forth offers and counteroffers. Giuliani said there is one area, wouldnt say if it was collusion. Wouldnt say if it was obstruction, where he thinks that they can agree and this
counteroffer theyre going to send today shows some agreement. Wouldnt tell me what it was. And on that whole question of obstruction. I asked him about it. Monday he told the post obstruction is off the table. Yesterday he told politico, well, maybe there is some possibility. I think the way to sum up what he said to me was, its going to be hard for us to do anything that deals with obstruction because we consider that a perjury trap. Others consider it just a question, not a perjury trap. Yeah, including the air force one phone call about the trump tower meeting that the president has now said, yes, his son was going into a room with known russians expecting to get dirt on Hillary Clinton, which if you looked at a law book would be illegal. Donald trump jr. Says he didnt know that. I guess thats the excuse. A key point about the timing. 60 days out from a federal election. Justice department regulations,
recapture control of the house. Thats right. And you hear at that point, this idea that if the house flips, then you better watch out because they got power, the investigative power if youre democrats to go after the president. If you have a split, then you know the democrats are going to go after the president likely on this. Thats a question of more details that would come on it if mueller is still continuing. The part that makes this again back to the collins indictment one of these things if you pitch this as a novel or tv series, they tell you to go away, its too unbelievable. Remember how much more they know than we know as this back and forth goes on. Thats why it remains a mystery. Well see if they tell us when the special counsel responds to the counteroffer. Up next, related case. The defense pummels a key witness in the Paul Manafort trial. Who will the jury believe . Hem. Because he hid his customers gold in a different box. And the bandits, well, they got rocks. We protected your money then and were dedicated to helping protect it today. Like alerting you to certain Card Activity we find suspicious. If its not your purchase, well help you resolve it. Its a new day at wells fargo. But its a lot like our first day. With tripadvisor, finding your Perfect Hotel at the lowest price. Is as easy as dates, deals, done simply enter your destination and dates. And see all the hotels for your stay tripadvisor searches over 200 booking sites. To show you the lowest prices. So you can get the best deal on the right hotel for you. Dates, deals, done tripadvisor. Visit tripadvisor. Com
welcome back. Were heavy on legal news today. An update from the Paul Manafort trial. Rick gates concluded his testimony a bit earlier this morning after three days on the witness stand. During crossexamination, manaforts attorney tried to make gates credibility and honesty the main focus. The jury is supposes to believe you after all the lies you told . Gates responded, im here to tell the truth. Mr. Manafort had the same path. Im here. I have taken responsibility. I am trying to change. Cnns Shimon Prokupecz has been following this. The star witness is done. Whats the sense now that gates is finished . I think the sense there is the defense attorney Kevin Downing there did exactly what he should have done. He went after gates credibility from everything from the money he allegedly stole or admitted to stealing from Paul Manafort to now some of these more
salacious details about extramarital affairs. In fact, this morning when the attorney went back at gates about that accusing him of having four extramarital affairs. Prosecutors had objected to it. That answer, obviously, gates did not give, but he did go on to say he did some bad things and, quote, he had made many mistakes over many years. So its true, john, here that his credibility, all of these things, these misdeeds or so, that had involved his life all these years had been front and center. Whether or not he damaged the credib credibility of rick gates well have to wait for the jury to decide. From Court Observers who have been there, the jury has been paying attention to this evidence. Gates has been on the stand now for three days. It ended. Now some new witnesses, fbi witnesses and other witnesses that are going to come in and help the governments case. Well certainly watch those
next witnesses to see if the prosecution thinks it needs to use documents or other items to get back at those. Shimon prokupecz, thank you for tracking this for us. Were still counting votes in some of the big elections last night. Even though were not certain of the winners, we do have some important lessons. Electronic Dance Music [stomach gurgles] when you have nausea, heartburn, indigestion, upset stomach, diarrhea. Girl, pepto Ultra Coating will treat your stomach right. Nausea, heartburn, indigestion, upset stomach, diarrhea. Try new pepto with Ultra Coating. Gimme two minutes. Eligible for medicare. And ill tell you some important things to know about medicare. First, it doesnt pay for everything. Say this pizza. [mmm pizza. ] is your part b medical expenses. This much about 80 percent. Medicare will pay for. Whats left. This slice here. Well. Thats on you. And thats where an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by Unitedhealthcare Insurance Company comes in. This type of plan helps pay some of what medicare doesnt. And these are the only plans to carry the aarp endorsement. Thats because they meet their high standards of quality and service. Wanna learn more . Its easy. Call Unitedhealthcare Insurance Company now and ask. For this free decision guide. Inside youll find the range of aarp Medicare Supplement plans and their rates. Apply any time, too. Oh. Speaking of time. About a little over half way and theres more to tell. Like, how. With this type of plan,
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this state. If you look into trump country, the rural areas, Troy Balderson getting big margins. But turnout itself, actually underwhelming. Not as many people turned out as republicans might have hoped. The same when you go to these small rural counties. Turnout underwhelming. The big difference for balderson was delaware county. More suburban. Some rural areas. Toward columbus, more suburban. This was the big difference for balderson. These numbers made the difference helping offset danny oconn oconnors big win in the piece of Franklin County in the district. The president is toxic with suburban women. The president said he made the difference for balderson. When you look at the Overall Results as we wait for the final verdict, Danny Oconnor is still on the ballot in the november election says the president is overstating his role. I dont think he knows what
hes talking about. You can fly in, hang out here for a couple hours, fly out. You dont walk on our roads. You Dont Have Kids that go to our schools. You dont deal with the Public Health crisis with addiction that we have in our state every single day. I think its more important to have grassroots conversations. And Troy Balderson can have all the people he wants fly in from d. C. I dont think it makes too much of a difference. Joining our conversation, waiting patiently through all the legal news, democrat margie omara, Kristin Soltis anderson. I wanted more time for this today. Well continue the conversation in the days ahead. What did we learn . Republicans say they think theyre going to win in ohio. A win is a win. Democrats say, wait a minute. Trump carried that district by 11 points. The last republican incumbent won walking away. And we almost won there for so the republicans have done reasonably well in terms of scoring the ws. Scoring the win in a variety of
house special elections. But if you just win by a point in a place where youre supposed to win by a lot, does that spell doom for november . I think what we learned last night is, one, if you look at the geography of that district, in places that are quite suburban, denser, they are the types of places where perhaps republicans did well maybe a decade ago. Trending much, much bluer. A lot of these republicans who are in these suburban districts, maybe the types of places that Hillary Clinton won a little bit, if democrats can pick up those seats, thats going to be their path to the majority. We have 82 races. 82 republicanheld seats in our races to watch. Looking to november. Hillary clinton carried 23 of those. Thats where the democrats first look. If Hillary Clinton carried them in 2016, this should be a more democratic year. Democrats need 23. That would be enough if they sweep those. Then 59 seats carried by President Trump. In where he ran weaker. Where he ran weaker than in ohio
12. So youve got 59 plus 23. Theres a good target list for the democrats. On top of that, look at the amount of spending the republicans did. They outspent democrats by 5 to 1. Are they going to be able to match that overspend, not just in all the districts that trump won by double digits, plus the clintonheld district. How many districts are you going to have republicans outspending . If thats whats required to hold on to a district that went to trump by such a large margin that hasnt been held by a democrat in decades. There are 59 other republican held seats and 36 of those trump ran weaker than in ohio 12th. Theres the target list for the democrats. My only pushback is this is a special election in august. Theres its hard to get voters to the polls, period. So i think the real question is, you mentioned some of those
counties where for republican turn dlout may have been lower they were hoping. By the time november rolls around, the Republican Voters realize what the stakes are and turn out. Thats one of the reasons i say some of these special elections, are they necessarily predictive . You are saying oconnor had a shot last year in a year where theyreiaste specials the kansas governors race. The president surprised. The kansas Republican Party by tweeting his support for kris kobach against an incumbent republican governor which is unusual, shall we say. And now kobach is ahead by 100 votes. This will go for a while until we get it. Democrats are praying he gets it. You saw that kobach and all The Public Polling was ahead before the trump endorsment. So i dont know if it made an impact. You have a sitting incumbent governor and very well known secretary of state. I dont know what expect trumps endorsement made a difference. People will be thinking about Sam Brownback and his experiment when trying to figure out how to vote in november. You think democrats could win that state . A lot of folks in kansas. A lot Pflof Polling showing the people dont feel the state is going in the right direction. And i think youll have people really looking at Something Else and thats what a lot of people are seeing. What do you tell a republican who calls you up and says trump carried my district by six points. I feel good but my democratic challenger is raising more money than me. Stop feeling good. Stop feeling good. If you even if you think youve got an okay shot at winning, you need to run like you are many, many points down. You need to remind your core voters why they should turn out. If republicans even have a slight dip in turnout from what theyre used to in midterms,
thats what the democratic wave is going to crash over. What else did we see last night . A lot of women candidates winning in all kinds of races in primaries. By 2 to 1, you see women winning weve talked about this before. Women winning their primaries where theres not an incumbent and a woman versus a man, about 64 , 69 . On the republican side about 34 of republican women winning those types of primaries. An incredibly diverse field. You see a woman who may be the first muslim woman member of congress out of michigan. Native American Woman winning a primary in kansas. A lot of really exciting folks on the democratic side. I wanted to spend more time on the year of the women aspect. Is the president right that hes good for his party, or is the president maybe a little warped in his thinking . Republican voters like their president an awful lot. And i think there are swing voters who like the way the economy is going but have questions about his temperament. Are they interested in keeping a
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