The most tangible data suggesting that the United States is losing its good reputation comes from The Economist adam poser. He argues that countries are bypassing the United States and constructing a postamerican world economy. You can see this in the flurry of Trade Agreements that dont include the u. S. , from the transpacific partnership, which was signed minus america to the trade deal the European Union just signed with japan and many others that are in the works. The most dramatic indication of the world side stepping the u. S. , he says, is the decline in Foreign Investment in america. It has fallen off a cliff, he told me. Net Foreign Investment into the u. S. Has dropped by half since 2016. Perhaps some of the decline is part of a longer term trend. Other countries are growing faster than the u. S. But for decades, that reality has been countered by another reality. That among the worlds rich nations, america was unique in having strong Growth Prospects coupled with stable,
predictable, promarket policies. Trumps attacks on trade, allies, his willingness to punish and reward individual companies and general unreliability all add up to a picture of policymaking that looks like that of an erratic developing company run by a strong man. The difference is americas strong man has the power to disrupt the entire global economy. For more go to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Post column this week. And now, lets get started. Is the war between the United States and iran actually possible . The leaders of the two enemy nations have been threatening each other since last weekend. It all began last sunday when irans president , Hassan Rouhani said the war between two nations would be the mother of all wars. President trump, of course, responded late that night with a tweet that said, in all caps, never, ever threaten the United States again, or you will suffer consequences the like of which few throughout history have ever suffered before. Irans Foreign Minister responded similarly, in all caps, color us unimpressed. And the leader of irans powerful force threatened thursday if trump began a war, it would be iran that ended it. Tough talk. Joining me now, robin wright, contributing writer at the new yorker and fellow at the Woodrow Wilson center, and trita parsi, and the author of losing an enemy, reuel marc gerecht, now senior fellow at the foundation for the defense of democracies. Robin, what do you make of the tweets and is this a new policy . Well, clearly, theres escalating tension between washington and tehran. What the administration believes the revolutionary government in iran is vulnerable and escalating the pressure economically, in terms of intelligence information campaign. Its gaming that the regime will be under such pressure it will have to go back to the Negotiating Table to talk, not just about the Nuclear Weapons program but also the wider array of issues we have with tehran, including human rights practices, its missile test, its meddling in the region, and the danger is that the iranians do not respond in a way that washington wants. The question becomes what else . Is this a repeat of the momentum that we felt in the runup to the war with iraq . The danger is that this is not north korea, this is not iraq. Iran is very sophisticated and has very Important Oil assets
and the other five members of the team negotiated with iran for this Historic Nuclear Deal have said theyre going to stick to it. That includes britain, germany, china, france and russia. Mike pompeo also made a speech and that seemed to outline and reemphasize what robin is saying. This is a new policy toward iran. We do have new policy, walking away from the jc the president and secretary pompeo have said they want to have new negotiations with the Islamic Republic. Certainly much of what theyre doing makes sense if you are adopting some type of Regime Change approach. Which you applaud . I do. I think its the correct way to
go, particularly at this time. I do believe that the Islamic Republic is internally weak and makes sense to deprive them of our currency. Trita, im guessing you disagree. I disagree with the idea that the United States is in a position and has the capacity to do a Regime Change in iran that would lead to a better government in iran, the iranian people certainly want to see democracy and are deeply frustrated with the current state of the country. But where is the last time, give me an example, of the United States doing a Regime Change in the middle east, that led to a proper democracy . I fear that the attempt at Regime Change i do agree with reuel, when you see everything thats happening, its not compatible with the strategy for diplomacy, but some form of attempt at Regime Change. It might be a worse scenario, Regime Collapse. They might not try to replates government, just collapse the current government and allow the
most striking about iraq, the democratic system in iraq, as flawed as it is, hasnt disappeared yet. The mistake there was that we pulled out. We should have stayed. For how long . We have to be patient. And, obviously, the americans have, i think, a short Attention Span for these things, and certainly in the middle east, which is very demanding. Do we really . Were still on the banks of iran, still in osaka and south korea, places where it makes sense because youre deterring an outside threat or anchoring the country. These are cases where youre trying to engage in a quasi colonial occupation, which is very difficult. Look into afghanistan. Is it better today than it was . I would argue that the intrusion of the United States into the Iraqi Government was less than probably what you had in germany after world war ii. You know, i would say that the more the United States is there,
the better. Robin, let me ask you, the point at which there seems to be some agreement is that what were headed for is a kind of Regime Change like strategy. Press iran, probably economically, but not the United States is not going to go into syria, yemen, lebanon to push back against iran. What you end up with is trita right, Regime Collapse and a very messy kind of situation . One of the things that everyone in washington is concerned about is what happens even if you get to the point that the regime is confronted, is vulnerable, does begin to either collapse or deteriorate . And there is no identifiable Opposition Group that has emerged that is popular at home. And so one of the questions is, who would replace the regime . This is a country that has 80 million people. It borders not just the middle east but south asia, central asia. It is one of the most geostrategic properties in the
world and has a good deal to say what happens on the strait of hormuz, through which a huge amount of the worlds exports flow. So those of us who live a long way away, it is important. Were still militarily stressed whether in afghanistan, iraq, south korea, germany, that we dont have the resources to rebuild a country like iraq, much less a place like syria, which will have to be reconstructed at some point. And the idea of Reconstructing Another War Zone is very daunting. So, whether its just the collapse of the regime because of its inefficiencies, the opposition within or some kind of military campaign, plan b, what happens next, is a very unclear and in some ways the most frightening aspect of this issue. When we come back, well ask, what is actually happening inside iran . Is the regime getting weaker or is all this pressure emboldening it . Saving you up to 30 so you can spend less time missing out. And more time paddling out tripadvisor. Visit tripadvisor. Com or download the app but our tempurpedic helps us make it all work. It gives us the best night sleep ever. I recommend my tempurpedic to everybody. The most highly recommended bed in america just got better. Introducing the allnew, reinvented tempurpedic. Designed with the most pressure relieving material weve ever created and superior cooltotouch technology. It adapts and responds to your bodys unique needs throughout the night. For your deepest, most rejuvenating sleep. Find your exclusive retailer today at tempurpedic. Com. At crowne plaza, we know Business Travel isnt just business. Theres this. A bit of this. Why not . Your hotel should make it easy to do all the things you do. Which is what we do. Crowne plaza. Were all business, mostly. Wells fargo has supported Community Organizations from the beginning, crowne plaza. Like united way, nonprofits like the american red cross, and our nations veterans. We knew helping our communities was important then. And we know its even more important today. So were stepping up to volunteer more and donate over a Million Dollars every day. So our communities can be even stronger. Its a new day at wells fargo. But its a lot like our first day. When it comes to strong bones, are you on the right path . We have postmenopausal osteoporosis and a high risk for fracture, so with our doctors we chose prolia® to help make our bones stronger. Only prolia® helps strengthen bones by stopping cells that damage them with 1 shot every 6 months. Do not take prolia® if you have low blood calcium, are pregnant, are allergic to it, or take xgeva®. Serious allergic reactions, like low blood pressure; trouble breathing; throat tightness; face, lip or tongue swelling, rash, itching or hives have happened. Tell your doctor about dental problems, as severe Jaw Bone Problems may happen or new or unusual pain in your hip, groin, or thigh, as unusual Thigh Bone Fractures have occurred. Speak to your doctor before stopping prolia®, as spine and other Bone Fractures have occurred. Prolia® can cause serious side effects, like low blood calcium; serious infections, which could need hospitalization; skin problems; and severe bone, joint, or muscle pain. If your bones arent getting stronger isnt it time for a new direction . Why wait . Ask your doctor about prolia. They yell death to rouhani, as much as they do death to the supreme ruler. I think the society is fraying rather profoundly and its important to remember that iran has had over 100year quest of search for increasing representative government. It is unique, actually, in the middle east. And i think we should Pay Attention to that. And we should realize that though the Islamic Republic has brutalized Iranian Society as did the shah before it, you still have a very powerful, i would argue, current greater democratic expression. Trita . Without a doubt the desire for democracy is very strong. Theyre the ones who have been pushing to move the country in that direction. The question is, will any interference or efforts from the outside help or undermine it . Invariably in the 100year quest weve seen for intervention, its always set back the iranian peoples aspirations. The 1953 intervention to unseat the democratically elected Prime Minister mossadegh is the prime example. The government itself so far, were not seeing any signs of panic. Certainly a tremendous amount of discontent and protests that look very different from with an we saw in 2009. This is coming from the smaller cities that have not reached tehran yet, a class that is usually seen as being supportive of the regime. There are efforts from the outside to fuel protests. Robin, where do you come out on this . The United States pressure, does it help the Iranian Regime in a way that, for example, it helped the castro regime in cuba,
because they can say they were battling the americans and american pressure, or is it, at the end of the day, pressure is pressure and it weakens the regime . Probably both. The biggest pressure on the Iranian Regime comes from within. The fact that the majority of the voters today were born after the revolution and this is one of the most connected societies. It has a very sophisticated polity. They are aware of what happens in the rest of the world. They dont want to be a pariah and dont want to see their currency halved as it has in the past year. They want to buy their western goods and dont want to be stuck with inferior chinese stuff. I do think were reaching a turning point. In august and again in november, u. S. Sanctions go in effect. First, not just on iranian goods but any company that does business from any country with iran. And so this will undermine even those countries that have stuck to the nuclear deal, the companies in those countries are going to feel pressure not to deal with iran, because then they cant sell their goods to the United States. You see big global companies, frances totale, germanys siemens. The pressure will mount. Will there be this confluence of factors that really undermine the regime . Just a year ago you saw almost 77 of the population in iran turn out for a president ial election, much higher than it was in the u. S. President ial election a year before that. There are still people willing to participate in a system a year ago. Whether the system can collapse quickly, i think, is a big question. I think one thing we could be sure is the pressure is mounting and this is going to be a story to watch. Thank you. Thank you very much. Next on gps, trumps tariff war and why it wont work. Back in a moment. Come fly with me, lets fly, lets fly away. Come fly with me, lets fly, lets fly away. Keep it comin love. Keep it comin love. Dont stop it now, dont stop it no. Dont stop it now, dont stop it. Keep it comin love. Keep it comin love. Dont stop it now, if you keep on eating, well keep it comin. All you can eat riblets and tenders at applebees. Now thats eatin good in the neighborhood. Whos already won three cars, two motorcycles, a boat, and an r. V. I would not want to pay that insurance bill. [ ding ] oh, i have progressive, so i just bundled everything with my Home Insurance. Saved me a ton of money. Love you, gary
you dont have to buzz in. Its not a question, gary. On march 1, 1810 [ ding ] frederic chopin. Collapsing in 226 [ ding ] the colossus of rhodes. [ sighs ] Louise Dustmann [ ding ] brahms lullaby, or wiegenlied. When will it end . [ ding ] not today, ron. World segment. A lot has changed in American Politics over the last 30 years, but theres one thing you can always count on, republicans hating taxes. Read my lips. No new taxes. Tax increases destroy jobs. Weve made history by massively reducing jobkilling taxes. It turns out theres a certain jobkilling tax trump actually loves, tariffs. Tariffs are pretty much the same as taxes, which is why freemarket economists from alan smith onward have hated them. When trump puts a tariff on a foreign good, what he is doing is taxing that good, making it more expensive for americans. Take, for example, trumps tariffs on imported steel. Its true this would help americans who make steel, because their competitors products coming in from abroad
would be more expensive. But there are only about 150,000 American Workers who make steel. That is dwarfed by the 6. 5 million americans who work in industries that buy and depend on cheap steel, writes douglas irwin, dartmouth economist of foreign affairs. Including everything from small tool manufacturers to large defense firms. Goldman sachs says General Motors and ford could each lose 1 billion this year because of the steel tariffs. The Trump Administration is looking into tariffs on another 200 billion worth of chinese goods and has threatened Automobile Tariffs on allies. Costing nearly 200,000 jobs, according to the Peterson Institute. Listen to larry summers. This is the least
wellconceived Economic Policy that the United States has pursued since the period before the great depression. So why even start these tariff wars . Dont blame the administration. Dont blame japan. Dont blame europe. Blame china. Well, china is a trade cheat that breaks the rules and bends others, as i have often said. These are problems. But trumps tariffs are not the answers. In mid june, the United States announced tariffs on 50 billion worth of chinese imports. The overwhelming majority of them were on whats known as intermediate goods. In other words, parts for things Like Computers or cars or on machines used to build them. Those a