Russia. Could the increasingly urgent situation in ukraine explode into war . Also, inside enemy territory. What happens when a reporter for a jewish publication goes to iran . The answer might surprise you. I will talk to that reporter about what he learned. And, the future of work. Will computers take over for lawyers and doctors and all of us . Will robots replace most workers . Ill talk to the author of an eyeopening cover essay in the atlantic. Finally, the long hot summer is almost over, but the heat may be here to stay. Ill explain. But first here is my take. While we have been watching isis and discussing iran, something much bigger is happening in the world. We are witnessing a historic fall in the price of oil. Down more than 50 in less than a year. When a similar drop happened in the 1980s, the soviet union collapsed. What will it mean now . Nick butler, the former head of strategy for bp, told me we are in for a longer and more sustained period of low oil prices than in the late 1980s. Why . He points to a perfect storm. Supply is up substantially because a decade of High Oil Prices encouraged producers throughout the world to invest vast amounts of money in finding new sources. Those investments are made and will keep supply flowing for years. The former head of strategy for the Italian Energy giant says there is no way to stop this phenomenon. He predicts that prices could actually drop down to 35 a barrel next year. A primary reason that the price decline has accelerated is that saudi arabia, the worlds swing supplier, that is, the one that can most easily increase or decrease production, has decided to keep pumping. The saudis know it hurts them, but they hope it will hurt everyone else more. One of saudi arabias main aims is to put american producers of shale and tight oil out of business. So far its not worked. Though battered by plunging prices american firms have used technology and Smart Business practices to stay afloat. Major oilproducing countries everywhere are facing a fiscal reckoning like nothing theyve seen in decades, perhaps ever. Lets take a brief tour of this new world. Venezuela. Hugo chavezs popularity, 20th century socialism and mismanagement of the countrys economy were made possible by one factor, a Prolonged Oil boom. Oil makes up 96 of venezuelas exports. Its economy is estimated to shrink by 7 this year, having already contracted by 4 last year. Russia. Like chavez, Vladimir Putins popularity coincided perfectly with the steep rise in oil prices, which meant higher russian gdp, government revenues and subsidies to the people. All that is reversing. Russia economy is predicted to shrink by 3. 4 this year. Revenues for the national gas giant are estimated to fall by almost 30 this year. Remember, gas prom is the machine that provides finances for putins clique that runs the country said butler, a visiting professor now at kings college, london. Iraq. Oil makes up around 90 of the bagdad governments revenue. And despite the fact that it is pumping out as much as possible, it faces a massive drop in available funds. This is the backdrop behind the fragility of the government and the rising levels of sectarian strife which have paved the way for isis. With limited resources the shiite government in bagdad is hardpressed to make patronage payments to the sunnis. Iran. Despite the initial windfall that iran will get from the relaxation of sanctions it is, like most petro states, dysfunctional. The imf estimates that iran needs prices to be at almost 100 a barrel to balance its budget. So in the medium term it will face pressures just like the others. Many american experts and commentators have hoped for low oil prices as a way to deprive unsavory regimes around the globe of easy money. Well, now its happening, but at a speed that might produce enormous turmoil and uncertainty in an already anxious world. For more go to cnn. Com fareed and read my Washington Post column this week. And lets get started. Last week the Outgoing Army chief of staff general ray odierno told reporters that russia was the most dangerous threat that the United States faced because of the trouble moscow was causing in ukraine. That trouble has been, by all reports, ins tentensifying in r weeks. Odierno closed by saying we should pay a lot of attention to russia and its actions there. Thats what well do today. My two guests dealt with russia politically and militarily. Wesley clark was a fourstar general and natos supreme allied commander in europe. And Radek Sikorski is defense minister of poland. You visited the area and have a pretty bleak assessment. First tell us, what is happening on the ground. Whats happening on the ground is there is about a 450kilometer zone of contact. And along that zone the separatists under russian command and control are probing and bleeding the ukrainian military. Behind the separatists forces 50,000 russian main force units are staged on the border between ukraine and russia and could intervene if Vladimir Putin pulls the trigger. What would you say to somebody like Henry Kissinger who has argued consistently that you cannot stabilize ukraine without the cooperation of russia. Russia has to be involved in this policy of confrontation is fundamentally the wrong way to go . Well, because this is all about lincoln. And its a question of interests. And so, what putin has done is has played linkage against us. What hes done is he has said to the American Administration that, if you want my cooperation on iran, dont push me too hard on ukraine. We have to play linkages right back. Russia has a lot of interests in the world. And ukraine is one of them. But we have to make it clear to him that the territorial integrity of ukraine, thats nonnegotiable. You cant invade a country, you cant give to russia the right to interfere and intervene in the internal affairs of these states in its area. I was with the president of bulgaria. He said, this is just crazy. He said, were acting like putin has the right to come in and tell us what to do. Just because he is a bigger country. Thats what the 20th century was all about. We said borders were sacrosanct. We pledged during the cold war that we have prevent this kind of thing. We set up nato to prevent that. We brought new members into nato. We have to stand on our commitments. Thats essential to the rule of law worldwide. Radek sikorski, how did we get here . I think there was a sense that putin had annexed crimea, which triggered reaction in the west. The west imposed sanctions on russia. We thought this would deter putin and some putin from more adven tourism. What happened . President putin spoke of ukraine as an artificial country already at the nato summit in bucharest in 2008. And as we know, some of those plans in georgia for crimea, for ukraine, had been laid down before. President putin has had largely misspent the oil booms money, but he has invested heavily in his armed forces. And we are now seeing the results of that. What does this tell you about his intentions . Is he i mean, what does he want to do . What is the goal here . Well, its very difficult to gauge anybodys intentions. What we can determine are the outcome of their actions. And what i think we should do is, first of all, convince president putin that the nato area is out of bounds for Russian Military adven tourism. Secondly, i would try to convince president putin that, if he moves further into ukraine, he will face a prolonged conflict that he cannot win. And then thirdly i think we should persuade him that time is not working in his favor, that ukraine is reforming itself. Whereas, the conflict is costing russia too much. Then i believe he might be willing to make a deal and withdraw from the occupation of ukraine. Ideally we need a process in which the European Union and the United States should participate. That would fix all of the frozen conflicts on the former soviet periphery. Wes, you would like us to do you would like the United States to do a lot more to support ukraine. You would like to arm ukraine more. Do you think thats is that a viable strategy given that russia, i think the last number i saw, outspends ukraine 20 to 1 in terms of defense dollars . You have to drive up the cost to russia of aggression. You have to convince them there is no quick and easy military option. So the russians have a lot of modern technology. Longrange missiles. Theyve got unmanned ariel vehicles. A lot of electronic warfare. What the ukrainians have been seeking are some very simple, basic, updated antitank gear. We have it and have refused to supply it. I think it should be supplied. Radek, should there be a nato base in poland. There are nato bases in britain, in germany, in spain, in portugal, in italy, in turkey, and your generals are saying one after another that the actual threat is from the east. So where do you think nato bases should be . I guess where they are needed, huh . General clark, would you agree . I do. That would be a major change in policy on that point of agreement. It would, but you have to adapt the policy to changing circumstances. And the key here is that mr. Putin cant believe that he can bully these countries and the United States in particular will look aside. You know, nato was our creation. Weve always been the leader of this alliance. We havent relied on germany or britain or france to say, you lead us, boys, and well be there with logistics. We were the leaders. They came to us after world war ii. We saw it through the cold war. Now nations in Eastern Europe are coming to the United States and asking for leadership. We should provide it. General wesley clark, Radek Sikorski, pleasure to have you on. Next up. Iranian leaders have repeatedly called for the elimination of israel. They utterly and completely reject zionism but invited a jewish journalist to report in iran. The first allowed in since the revolution of 1979. What did he find in that country . Well ask him when we come back. Thats where at t can help. At t has the tools and the network you need, to make working as one easier than ever. Virtually anywhere. Leaving you free to focus on what matters most. Its more than its multilayered security and flexibility. With centurylink you get advanced technology solutions. Including cloud and hosting services all from a trusted it partner. Centurylink. Your link to whats next. Dad yeah, 20 something years now. 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Irans former president was infamous for his denial of the holocaust. How would you like to be a pro Israeli Jewish reporter for a jewish publication and get off the plane in iran . My next guest did just that. Larry koehler. Editor at the forward has said to have been the first reporter from the jewish media to be credentialed to report in the Islamic Republic of iran since the 1979revolution. Larry, a pleasure to have you on. Thank you very much. Give me your dominant, you know, reaction. What was the thing that struck you the most . That surprised you the most. Well, the first thing to make clear is that i specified to everybody i met, both ordinary iranians, ayatollahs and a couple government officials, who i recommended. I identified myself as a reporter for the forward, which a prominent American Jewish newspaper. From the most hardline politicians who are very much in line with that Ayatollah Khamenei said or who opposed him. Nobody batted an eye lash about representing a jewish media outlet. The hardliners make a compartmentalization against jews who they consider people of the book under muslim and zionists who are a maligned International Force that has nothing to do with jews or judaism. You talked about how jewish life in iran can be rich. You point out that there are 13 active synagogues. Five jewish schools. Two kindergartens and a 100bed jewish hospital. Did that surprise you . No. Because i had done research earlier. I know it is surprising to other people. But yes. They do have a community there. It is much smaller than the community that existed before khomeini came to power and the shah was over thrown. There are estimates between 9,000 and 20,000 jews. Before the revolution in 1989 there were 87,000 to 100,000. Life is possible there. Everything you said is correct. Many jews have chosen to make their lives elsewhere since the revolution. Is it your sense that the jews of iran are living fulfilled lives, or are they embattled and miserable, i guess would be the simplest way to put it . Theyre not miserable, but they have discriminations. One of the leaders who i quoted in my story said, were not oppressed, but there are limitations. And thats true, and it has many specific, multiple meanings. If an under shariah, if a muslim murders a jew, i was told by this jewish leader the price is blood money. Thats the penalty. But if a jew marries if a jew murders a muslim the price is execution. They were very proud because they are pushing back against these limitations if their own way, but they do not challenge in any way the legitimacy of shariah. That gives them many disadvantages which they then try to figure out ways around and ways to fight. The American Foreign policy writer Peter Barnard who happens to be jewish posits that if the at tehran regime had homicidal leanings to the jews they would have taken it out against them. Do you buy that . No. I dont agree with that. I certainly agree with the fact that the jews in iran are not being harmed or actively oppressed notwithstanding the discrimination i mentioned. But there are 6 million jews living in israel. As you mentioned, there are statements by leaders such as the Supreme Leader that talk about eliminating that state which would involve eliminating many lives to make it happen. They have 9,000 and 20,000 jews in iran who are accommodated within their civilian, within their society. They do that for many reasons. It may be a political asset for them to have a community of jews even though a shrinking one, that they can point to and say, look, these are our jews in our country, and were not doing anything to them, while maintaining a position towards israel which, of necessity, would involve a military war that could kill many people including civilians to get rid of the idea of a jewish state. Fascinating report, larry. Thank you. Pleasure to be here. Next on gps my case for why the United States military should allow women in all combat roles. Seems to me a nobrainer. When we come back. Purse is staro look more like a tissue box. You may be muddling through allergies. Try zyrtec® for powerful allergy relief. And zyrtec® is different than claritin®. Because it starts working faster on the first day you take it. Zyrtec®. Muddle no more™. To cook healthy meals. Yet up to 90 fall short in getting key nutrients from food alone. Lets do more. Add one a day mens 50 . Complete with key nutrients we may need. Plus it helps support healthy Blood Pressure with vitamin d and magnesium. Yup, were constantly making thinkorswim better. Here at td ameritrade, theyre always working. Like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. And you can share it with one click. Wow. How do you find the time to do all this . Easy. We combined every birthday and holiday into one celebration. different holidays being shouted back to work, guys i love this times of year. For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. You now for our what in the world seg am. Earlier this month at the republican president ial debate former governor Mike Huckabee was asked how he felt with transgender soldiers serving openly in the military. As commander in chief, how would you handle that . The military is not a social experiment. The purpose of the military is kill people and break things. Its not to transform the culture by trying out some ideas that some people think would make us a different country and more diverse. Actually, americas military has always eventually reflected the country it protects, evolving and becoming more inclusive over time. It desegregated the races in 1948. It allowed gays to serve openly in 2011. And just this week, two soldiers became the first women to graduate from the elite u. S. Army ranger course. One of the most challenging feats in the military. They endured a 62day test of wills, participating in grueling evaluations and mock combat patrols on very little food and sleep, just like the men. But despite their publishmeaccot which only a tiny number of soldiers can claim they cant actually fight as army rangers because the u. S. Military currently prohibits women from participating in certain combat roles. The militarys ban on having women in combat roles was rebealed a few years ago. It hasnt gone into effect yet. Its time to fully lift the ban. If you look at other countries women have been fighting in direct combat roles with Great Success for decades. Several european nations allow women to fight in combat according to the Washington Post