Try number 16. Ill talk to porter about the study. And a week after three people were killed in an antisemitic attack in kansas, i will talk to simon sherman, the author of the story of the jews about why jews have been a target for more than 2,000 years. But first, heres my take. Over the past two months, we have watched what has looked like a minor version of the cold war between the west and russia. Many people are wondering, how did we get here . Was this confrontation inevitable or did the west mishandle russia from the start . And the mishandling camp is jack matlock, former u. N. Ambassador to the soviet union in the late 1980s who watched from moscow as Mikhail Gorbachev presided over the cold war. He wrote, the United States has treated russia as a loseer sir the end of the cold war. In the years after the cold war ended, writers urged policy toward a more gentle moscow. I was one of them. My logic was simple. We had two healthy experiments in peace settlements after world wars. After world war i, the victors punished germany and left it outside the new international system. It proved to be a disaster, leaving a wounded and angry germany pining for revenge. After world war ii, on the other hand, the United States and its allies were magnanimous toward germany and japan, integrating those countries into the new global order. That piece of 1945 succeeded brilliantly. So i thought we should do our best to try to integrate russia into the structures of the new postcold war world, give it aid and help rebuild its economy and society. Now, western countries did provide some help, but not really on the scale that a vast country like russia needed after the complete collapse it had gone through in the early 1990s. But if the west did not do enough, russia also pursued policies that made integration very hard. By the early 1990s, moscow had launched a ferocious war against chechnya, a part of russia that had been seeking independence from moscow for more than a century. Estimates vary, but many believe the russian army killed over 200,000 people in the first and second chechnyan wars. This is not how germany and japan behaved after world war ii as they sought integration. And at home, russians were quickly developing a prickly resistance to outside interference, and Russian Politicians who urged integration with the west became marginal figures with tiny followings. Looking at this record, the historian in applebaum has argued, also in the washington post, that the west fundamentally misunderstood russia. It saw the place as a western country in the making if only we had put forward the right policies. In fact, she argues, russia derives its identity from being a nonwestern country, perhaps even from being an antiwestern country in the sense that it is distinct and different from the west. Perhaps the west could have done more to help russia, but it does appear to me looking back that the russia of the late 1980s and early 1990s of gorbachev and yeltsin may have been a special moment in history, the time when they were weak, its leadership lightened and worn out by decades of communist failure. The mood of that country changed quickly as Oil Prices Rose in the 1990s. The russian economy grew and the russian state reasserted itself. In russia there has always been a great debate, at least since the 1840s, between westernizeres and slava files. The western russia wanted russia to become western, while the slava files thought it need to do lay in its slavic foundation. Today, at least, it looks like the slava files were right. Go to my website and read my take. And lets get started. The truce brokered in geneva last week may have made sense to those at the table, but does it help western ukraine . They want to lay down their arms and give back the government buildings theyve seized. For the most part, this hasnt happened. Any hope of an eastern peace in Eastern Ukraine has been shattered with a shooting today. Four people are reported dead after the incident at a prorussian checkpoint outside the city of slaviance. Lets go to the eastern city of dukrev. What is your take that the people on the ground are going to do now that the foreign minister has said, you have to get out of these buildings and hand them over to the ukranian authorities . Reporter at this stage were seeing absolutely no indication whatsoever that they have any intention of doing that. They point to the fact that the agreement, the rhetoric of the agreement said that illegal groups needed to leave public spaces, needed to leave those various buildings, and they dont consider themselves to be illegal. In fact, they consider the government in kiev to be illegal. All were seeing on the ground here is theyre continuing to fortify themselves, and they fully believe that no matter what, the russians are going to continue to support them. One of the protest leaders sarcastically thanking europe for waking up the russian bear. The situation we have with the violence overnight, that possibly could escalate tensions here even further. People understandably incredibly concerned, and its a fairly tough job that is facing the organization for security and cooperation in europe that is tasked with trying to convince these groups to surrender these buildings. They have around 100 monitors on the ground here trying to move around, meet with the various parties, restore a sense of order. But at this stage, it really seems as if those groups are not going to surrender the various buildings, and more and more areas saying that they are determined to hold a referendum about independence, fareed. Thank you so much, arwa. Stay warm. For the Bigger Picture on ukraine, lets go to the capital of ukraine and ask cnns fred plectum. You heard what she said, they are not intending to get out of these buildings. Will they send an army and take control of what is their country . Reporter fareed, you know, the ukranian government and the Prime Minister told me they really had very low expectations for these geneva agreements to begin with. They said if those people in the east dont leave the government buildings, they will continue what they call their antiterror operation in the eastern part of the country and move their antiterror there. The question s do they have the capability for such a complex operation, and the view im getting here from inside ukraine, from defense experts and also people inside the military as well is that this army clearly does not have that. It has several problems. One of them is the general staff which in many ways have shown to be incompetent, not just with what happened in crimea but the operations going on in the east. You recall last week a convoy was sent to eastern towns and some of those armored personnel carries got taken away by separatists and were driven away to some eastern ukranian town, some of them even doing donuts with those trucks. The other problem they have is they simply do not have the material, it doesnt have the gear for such an operation. A lot of tanks they have, but for the 1970s, the gear this army had, the best gear, was actually sold off to third countries who were trying to bolster their army services. So the big question is, what are they going to do and do they have the capabilities to do so . Certainly if they try to relaunch this antiterror operation, its very much unclear whether or not they would even be able to clear those buildings. Then, of course, you have the broader picture, the even bigger problem that you could have Russian Forces going across the border if they feel provoked. So at this point in time, the sense were getting is that the ukranian government hopes that this geneva agreement is something that will stand, that would lead to something right now. However, there is no disguising the fact that that geneva agreement is in a lot of trouble, not only from those people inside the buildings in Eastern Ukraine but also, of course, internationally with the russians seemingly making new demands all the time even as the government in kiev says its trying to deescalate, by, for instance, calling a truce which didnt do much. Thank you so much. Coming up next, did sanctions bring russia to the negotiating table, at least . Ive got a great set of experts to answer that and much more. Cmon, you want heartburn . When your favorite food starts a fight, fight back fast, with tums. Heartburn relief that neutralizes acid on contact. And goes to work in seconds. Tum, tum tum tum. Tums . We are back to talk about what the United States can do to enforce russia. He specializes in the Foreign Policy of russia and ukraine and joins us from moscow. Richard, let me start with you. The conventional wisdom is that sanctions dont work. You wrote a terrific book about it many years ago. But i now look at the sanctions that the United States has used against iran and is beginning to use against russia. These are more targeted, smart sanctions. They really try to take advantage of the fact that the u. S. Financial system is at the center of global commerce, and they try to freeze offending countries or companies out of that financial system. Do you think that thats enough pain to exact a real price and put a real cost in place for the russians . Well, youre exactly right, fareed. Whats different about these sanctions is how targeted they are. And second of all, they take place against the backdrop of a much more integrated world. But the key to it all is whether the United States can get sufficient international, in this case, largely european support. Thats what makes the iranian sanctions so powerful, and i would think the biggest question now is what happens or doesnt happen between the United States and what Donald Rumsfeld might have called old europe, essentially germany, france and old britain. Bob, when you are in moscow, what is your sense of what moscows game is . Is it a type of crimean style annexation, or are they trying to put pressure on the government and get the best deal they can . Autonomy for the east, a pledge that ukraine will never join nato . What is the end goal here for putin . Almost certainly i think its the latter. That is, i think theyre primarily concerned with producing a ukraine they can live with that protects russian influence within ukraine, and that does prevent it from moving toward the west. The issue of how much autonomy you give to the east is simply in strestrumental is simply i po that broader based objective. That objective is no longer in hand, therefore, i think were in for a long period of what i would call dangerous, suspended animation. Richard, one of the things that strikes me about this situation is that the prize here, if you win in this little struggle, you get ukraine. And, you know, the tag right now is 15 billion as a starter. Should we be thinking about this somewhat differently and trying to get the russians as involved as we can, to put it bluntly, so we can split the bill . That opportunity may have existed in the past. My sense is now, fareed, its probably too polarized. But you make a good point. Were focusing so much on what russia is doing. One of the dramatic or most critical factors here is going to be what ukraine does. And one of the reasons the russians are able to be as influential and to sow as much dysfunction as they have is simply because of the political and economic disarray that has been and continues to be ukraine. Sigh big part of western policy has got to be shoring up ukraine politically, economically, and in the news report you just ran, it also shows the military inadequacy. This is a nation state, if you will, of 45 million or so people, but it really isnt functioning on eight cylinders in any one of the critical dimensions of what it takes for a modern country to operate. Bob, what is your sense of how this is going to work domestically in russia . Of course, putin is wildly popular now because this is kind of a tough, nationalist thing to do, but do you think people worry about the longterm costs of integrating crimea, of perhaps having to deal with, as i say, if they win they have to deal with ukraine. How do you think is putin thinking economically at all, or is this all just history and nationalism . I dont think theyve begun to come to terms with it either at the top or in the media or among the population in general. The cost to go back to the earlier conversation on sanctions is already being felt, but not because of the sanctions. Theyre primarily visa freezes and freezing assets for people on a particular list. The sanctions that are being contemplated havent been put in place, and yet the economy is already beginning to tank. The report for the First Quarter was very close to negative growth. Another quarter in russia will be in recession. The last report yesterday indicated that bond issuance by which they would finance a debt is down 74 over last year, and there are going to be costs down the road. Since they cant finance their debt and they may be moving into recession, that will mean a cut in social benefits, a cut in aid to or support for education or health. Whats going to happen at that point, i think, is unpredictable. The Putin Administration leadership is going to make the argument, look, your grandparents made enormous sacrifices to deal with a lethal threat in the second world war. I know that you, the russian people, are capable of doing the same thing. And thats going to work for a period of time. But how long this lasts is uncertain. In answer to your question, though, they have not begun, even in the smallest way, to be coming to terms with that proposition. Richard, weve got 30 seconds. Do you think that the Obama Administration is pursuing this correctly, or very quickly, what would be your central advice to them . I would pursue it, fareed, with much more urgency and intensity. I would do something about American Energy policy to begin the process of waning the europeans from dependence on russia. I would put much more diplomatic emphasis on ratcheting up the sanctions to do more for strengthening the rest of nato. I just dont sense the degree of urgency that this requires. Fascinating discussion. Thank you both. Up next, the worlds biggest sporting event is less than two months away. But the host country has gone from boon to basket case. Why . Stay with us and well tell you. [ dog barks ] [ male announcer ] imagine the cars we drive. Being able to see so clearly. To respond so intelligently and so quickly, they can help protect us from a world of unseen danger. Its the stuff of science fiction. Minus the fiction. And it is mercedesbenz. Today. 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Could mean less waiting for things like security backups and file downloads youd take that test, right . What are you waiting for . You could literally be done with the test by now. Now you could have done it twice. This is awkward. Go to comcastbusiness. Com checkyourspeed. If we cant offer faster speeds or save you money well give you 150. Comcast business built for business. World segment. This 32 million cable car has not been used since 2012. This is a federally funded extraterrestrial museum, also abandoned. And look at this multibillion dollar railroad. An article in the New York Times said it was supposed to help farmers from impoverished remote areas transport soybeans. Construction began but the railroad will probably never be built. What if i told you these shattered big ticket projects are in the country that will host the worlds biggest sporting event in june. What in the world, right . Im talking about brazil, of course, host of this years fifa world cup and the only Major Economic power in south america. There is even speculation that bus and rail systems being built for the soccer tournament wont be completed until after the games are over. This is a big comedown for a country that was seen as an economic powerhouse, the bee in the brick countries and even made a bid to become a permanent member of the u. N. Security council. Now, over the last five to seven years, brazil did experience a boom. It lifted some 40 Million People out of poverty in the last decade. It kept unemployment rates at record lows. But as Morgan Stanley points out, the brazil boom was really just a side effect of the china boom. It was a time of cheap capital, emerging markets were hot, and china was growing fast and sucking up brazilian Raw Materials and oil. Brazil rode the commodity wave as china imported its soy, oil and other natural resources. By 2009, china had to eclipse the u. S. As a leader of brazilian goods. The following year brazil experimented a big gdp growth. China also experienced a downturn, seeing its growth rate dip below 8 in 2012 for the first time in a decade. If you feast on high commodity prices, you fast when they fall. Most important, brazil wasted the good years, postponing reforms, lavishing subsidies on its people and convincing itself that it had found a magic growth formula that required no pain and no discipline. That complacency now has a cost. Standard poors downgraded brazils Credit Rating in march. It is not quite in junk status terri