"outfront" tonight, mitt makes a bold promise. 12 million jobs. take a look at this ad in the wall street journal. written my romney's top economic advisor. first of all i want to draw your attention to the cartoon. there is obama on a tortoise with a whip. and romney on a horse going so fast that his tie and horse tail are flying in the wind. what was it supposed to be the tortoise and the hare? the newspaper denied the catchy cartoon but every word was written by glen hubbard. here in the second to last paragraph is the claim. president romney would create about 12 million new jobs in his first term and millions more after that. which means, just to get to 12 million the first term, 250,000 jobs each and every single one of his 48 months in office. he says he will do that by cutting regulations and cutting taxes. does it add up? first the good news. there have been a few times in american history where this has happened. the chief economists of jp morgan notes it happened in the 1990s. then we were in the middle of the internet boom which was not sustainable and ended up bursting. that is where the good news ends for the romney jobs claim. since 1939 only 27% of monthly jobs reports have shown growth of 250,000 jobs or more. the research also notes the united states has never had four straight years where job creation was above a quarter of million a month. the longest stretch was only 11 months during the reagan years, september of 1983 until july of 1984. and then there is this reality. even if mitt romney created 12 million jobs we would still be in the hole. here is why. this country needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth. we are talking about things like young people entering the workforce. that totals to 6 million jobs needed in a four-year term. that keeps you even with demographics. and then the situation we are in. jp morgan estimates we need 8 million jobs to make up for people who lost jobs during the financial crisis and still have them and people who gave up trying for a job but would come back looking for work as soon as the economy turned up. the bottom line on the math mitt romney needs to create 14 million jobs just to get us back to even. in his first term. that is pretty grim. 12 is hard to get to. 12 isn't even enough. it may not matter who is president come january. great jobs booms come with great moments. like the tech boom on the 19 1990s. we are on the cusp right now of a massive boom and wealth. we could be energy independent in years. that could kree create a lot of jobs. the question is aside from something like that will mitt's policies deliver the magic 12 million number when history shows it is a tall order. outfront paul hickey and alex grill, and michael etlinger. let me start with you, paul. this claim of 12 million jobs. you spent a lot of time looking at the history and the research they were studying was yours. >> it is a very tall order. the last time we had it was in the '90s. think about the '90s. we had a republican in office and a democrat in office and different control of congress. it is not necessarily the person in office that creates the jobs. it is what goes on around the economy. what the president does is helps foster that growth and support it or not support it. and on both sides of the aisle you have the argument that president obama is antibusiness or mr. romney is pro business. it's one of the things where we have a lot of unsure. the economy is unsure now. and it creates a lot of confusion. >> a lot of partisan point of view. let me ask you this question. when he puts out specific numbers, this is tough. people want specific numbers for people running for president. does he box himself into a corner with the 12 million number? i'm thinking about barack obama's promise of if you take my stimulus the unemployment rate will never go above 8% and it went over 10%. he has never gotten over that. >> that is right. there is certainly a risk and the experience of current president obama. we can't get below 8% and he promised not to go above that number. there is the risk for governor romney. the question is how big a claim is this? how close to this could we get if we had a strong economic growth? i agree with what paul said. it is not just about the president's policies but what congress does and that leadership is a contributing factor. i believe some of the policies, that are outlined in that op-ed that you are pointing to, other things that governor romney said on the campaign trail are consistent with promoting economic growth, getting us in that direction. i think tax reform alone creating a level playing field lowering marginal tax rates, not by cutting taxes, actually a revenue neutral tax reform, is the kind of change that a president could advocate that would be consistent with creating more jobs. >> revenue neutral tax reform is another can of worms. i know that is a big question. let me ask you this. barack obama is not thought of by most americans as someone who has created jobs. he is still in the hole. he hasn't created as many as were lost. he has added 4.4 million private sector jobs. i think that could surprise a lot of people. i guess i'm making the argument. once you start going you can really create a lot of jobs. >> i mean i actually don't think that there is any problem with the target that governor romney has set or that glen hubbard has set. we have had many months where we have created more than 200,000 private sector jobs. in this recovery. >> six months. >> about half of the historical average. historically about 40% have over 200,000. so far during president obama's term we had half that rate. go ahead, michael. sorry. >> so yeah, paul's right. it's been six months. since we hit the bottom and since president obama's policies started having an impact in the middle of 2009 we created millions and millions of private sector jobs. my main point is, i don't have an objection to romney saying he wants to create 12 million jobs. i just think to answer alex, i think his policies just aren't aiming at the target. and i think that's a much bigger problem. i think his policies remind us of president bush's policies, and they were failures in terms of creating growth and job creation. it's not surprising glen hubbard was of course president bush's top economics guy at the time the bush tax cuts pazed. he promised a miracle then and is doing the same now which isn't that surprising. >> what i'm curious about is he is putting this 12 million number out which seems you lick your finger and put it in the air. it's informed but it's kind of what it is. he is betting on this tax reform being neutral. which you brought up. i'm curious how he gets there. he cuts taxes for wealthy americans and he is going to broaden the base. people who earn the least will start paying taxes for the first time. how will what they pay makes up for a 20% tax cut because it seems like the whole argument rests on that being true? >> that is not how i would describe the framework. when he says tax revenue neutral tax reform and lowering tax rates and if your question is how that is possible, we need to keep in mind that only some of the dollars we earn are taxed by the tax code. obviously we have a system that's very progressive. a lot of low and moderate income individuals that don't pay federal income tax. but even well-to-do americans are claiming tremendous numbers of deductions. by reforming some of these tax expenditures, by reforming or repealing some of these we can broaden the tax base which permits us to lower the rates. this is what we saw on the simpson bowls report. that is the framework i understand. that governor romney is promoting. >> hopefully he will come out with spefics on which he will close. obviously closing the mortgage interest deductions, people might hate him for it. it might be the right thing to do. thanks for all of you. we appreciate it. "outfront" next, an attack on mitt romney, straight from, not the tortoise's mouth, the horse's mouth. you thought it was a bad few months for facebook and it got worst today. these are images we have for you in taiwan that are truly stunning. 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maybe because the romney's spend $77,000 a year on my upkeep and after mitt romney repeels health care and ships your jobs overseas, i daresay your life will won't be nearly as pampered as mean. >> so ridiculous. it is true the romneys have an expensive horse. move on. you are spending five figures on that ad. they wouldn't say whether the five figures was $10,000 or maybe $70,000 like the romneys' horse which they say is greater than the average american income. i mean that really does take the cake or i don't know what the right dressage term would be. does this kind of thing work for anything other than a fall? >> it is a funny ad. it is making a serious political point. for decades the republicans have been very successful of coupling elitest economics with populous social approach. a social populism. think of how they went after poor john kerry with his wind surfing. this is the first time we have an upper crust economics coupled with very traditional -- >> it is okay when you are a liberal and not when you are a republican? >> it makes wind surfing look like the national past time. that's the problem here, right? the reason these negative narratives work is because they rip off reality. you have the coincidence of the romneys' horse in the olympics. the key note is not just the talking horse, it is $77,000. when people hear that they say that is larger than the average household income. that becomes serious. >> moveon.org wouldn't say how much they spent for the ad. and i'm frustrated. >> this is so frustrating. not only is it a double standard but do you hear this? it's ridiculous. jacqueline kennedy made middle berg the washington retreat so she could ride. it was glamorous and elegant according to the media. lyndon johnson gave caroline a pony named macaroni and it was adorable. here in this case, ann romney rides these horses as part of her therapy for m.s. and they're challenging it and using it in an ad. it's not what politics should be about it's frustrating and deceptive. >> in this country we say that every poll situation says they were born in a log cabin that they built themselves. >> not everyone is lucky enough to have been born in hope, arkansas. >> people love success and respect success and willing to elect wealthy people. but they want those people to be fighting for them. and the problem here is that the democrats are simultaneously making the argument about taxes and economic policy and that's what makes it much harder. i will make a confession. until two weeks ago i didn't know there was a sport of dressage. >> i'm not sure what it is. it sounds like dress your horse up. i want to get to something that mitt romney said tonight that was unbelievable. it does seem that it is a double standard. mitt romney has this horse. barack obama raises money from the private equity titans while slamming mitt romney for being a private equity guy. >> and the fundraiser which is about the most tone deaf thing you can do as a democrat imaginable. it does stick. it does riff off these larger narratives and stereotypes. the facts of his extraordinary success. in private equity. now i want to get to this. this is something that mitt romney has just said. so harry reid came out. as you all may know and he said he hasn't paid taxes for ten years. it got mitt mad. >> it's time for harry to put up or shut up. harry is going to have to describe who it is he spoke with because that is totally and completely wrong. it's untrue, dishonest and inaccurate. it is wrong. so i'm looking forward to have harry reveal his sources and we'll probably find out it is the white house. >> i guess you would say to mitt romney, too, put up or shut up. if you put your taxes out harry reid would have to quote, unquote, shut up. >> because he hasn't put the taxes out there is nothing preventing his opponents to bring it up. in new and creative ways. so he's in a bit of a political spot here that may last until november. >> you know what, mitt? if they're wrong, it's going to be great. put them out and you'll be the high horse. i'm sorry. i didn't mean to do it. >> we didn't really say that. still "outfront," you heard last night on this show breaking news that the psychiatrist went to authorities and tried to warn them that her patient had been threatening horrible things. why did the warnings not produce action? and the cost of watching the olympics in dollars. do you see it ? there it is ! there it is ! where ? where ? it's getting away ! where is it ? it's gone. we'll find it. any day can be an adventure. that's why we got a subaru. love wherever the road takes you. wow, there it is. it's something you're born with. and inspires the things you choose to do. you do what you do... because it matters. at hp we don't just believe in the power of technology. we believe in the power of people when technology works for you. to dream. to create. to work. if you're going to do something. make it matter. ♪ ♪ [ male announcer ] you've been years in the making. and there are many years ahead. join the millions of members who've chosen an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. go long. olaf's pizza palace gets the most rewards of any small business credit card! pizza!!!!! 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