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i'm erin burnett. "outfront" tonight, countdown. >> nothing is over until we decide it is! was it over when the germans bombed pearl harbor?! hell, no! >> germans? >> forget it. he's rolling. >> and it ain't over now. because when the going gets tough -- the tough get going! who's with me?! let's go! >> we're with you. that was john belushi inspiring the troops in "animal house." and that's the kind of inspirational message our super committee needs to get the job done. they have five days to make a deal. now, if you think that's not a lot of time, consider this. any proposal must be made public 48 hours before the deadline, so the pressure is on. now, there is still time, but today democratic panel member john kerry came out of a closed-door meeting, sounding less than optimistic after his side balked at gop offer that didn't have what he felt was enough in new taxes. >> we're still working. i hope we can get there. but i don't know. >> if the committee fails, $1.2 trillion of automatic cuts will kick in. half from republicans' sacred cows, like defense, and half from democratic sacred cows. none from social security. now, the threat of these cuts was supposed to force the panel to take action. but i can't decide what's more offensive. that the cuts don't take place until 2013, after the election, allowing both parties to run for re-election dishonestly, because americans haven't felt the pain of cuts yet. or that republicans and democrats may agree on only one thing. that they will remove the automatic cuts since they're too painful. so they'll get no automatic cuts and no negotiated cuts. all this made me feel like howard beale in the movie "network." here's what every american should do tonight. >> i want you to get up right now and go to the window, open it, and stick your head out and yell, "i'm as mad as hell and i'm not going to take this anymore!" >> i'm mad as hell and i'm not going to take it anymore! >> i'm mad as hell and i'm not going to take it anymore! >> i'm not going to take it anymore! >> the bottom line is america must reduce its borrowing, that is a fact. and we must cut spending on things we all like. if we do not, companies won't hire, our economy won't grow, interest rates will one day go up, a lot, on mortgages, on credit cards, on any kind of loan, on everyone. at the same time, our economy will flatline and people won't get raises. the 12-member super committee has a chance to change the path of american history. to do a deal and to do a deal that is big. $4 trillion or more. if they don't, those 12 people will confirm to the world that this country cannot govern itself, and hand the future on a silver platter to china. jim bianco is president of bianco research. daifrd david gergen is a political analyst. you have looked at the numbers, you have done the path, how big of a deal do we need to do to really make a difference and tell the world and the markets that lend to america that we're serious? >> oh, i think the $4 trillion number that you cited is probably the range that we'd have to do. the minimum, of course, they'd have to do $1.2 trillion to raise the debt ceiling, which is going to hit again in about six weeks. but if you want to send a very broad message, i'd say $4 trillion if not more. and the more you would do, the stronger the message would be. >> and if they don't do a deal and then they get rid of these automatic cuts, as we have heard people like senator john mccain say he wants to get rid of, that would mean we have a debt ceiling problem soon, right? >> oh, yeah. it'd be august of last summer all over again. remember, we were talking about default and we were talking about not paying on our debt. and we were all worried about the doomsday scenario. if we call the whole thing off and have no cuts, in six weeks, we hit the debt ceiling again at $15.2 trillion. i suspect the tea party is not going to roll over again. they're going to all for a shutting down of the government, again, like they were last summer. and we're going to be all over again and the markets didn't like it at all last summer and they probably won't like it again. >> i want to ask you about that in a moment. because that could mean more downgrades, more downgrades maybe not now, but soon will mean much higher interest rates. john avalon, do you think they get it? >> they apparently don't, because they're playing chicken again. they're coming up to the clip. this is pathetic. this is a self-inflicted crisis. they have the mandate to do something and do it big. 150 of their colleagues in congress said, go big, hit that $4 trillion, but here they are in the 11th hour and they're struggling to hit $1.2. the world's sole super power cannot be the world's largest debtor nation indefinitely. this is a chance to turn it all around. if they fail, it will be a black mark on our nation and we will be back at this negotiation again. >> david gergen, is this a moment where you have somebody like a john kerry on the democratic side stand up and say, you know what, i don't care about getting re-elected. i just don't care, because i care about my country more. it seems like we need to hear more of that, don't we? >> it's been astonishing. it's the most irresponsible congress i can remember. and it looks like they're headed towards another cliff without acting. look, there are good individuals within this group, but the differences are obviously profound. and what's been stunning to me is that we have lost our capacity to find the middle. to find some way that each side can let go some on their principles in order for the greater good to prevail. and the -- if this fails, the markets are not going to go down immediately. but as mr. bianco said, if this fails and we then void the sequester, these automatic cuts in january of next year, then the markets are really going to take a blow and we're going to the look at -- moody's and others are going to be looking at downgrades. >> what do you think about the scenario, the downgrade scenario, jim bianco? >> it would be bad. s&p downgraded last summer and the dow jones industrial average fell 600 points that day. and most people in the market would tell you that the second downgrade is the one that matters more than the first downgrade. because that means that the majority rating of the u.s. is aa plus. right now the majority rating is still aaa, even though one of them is aa plus. so the next downgrade would be worse than the first downgrade. it would change the way we do business in the financial markets. we use treasuries as a cash proxy. we assume they're aaa rated. if they're no longer aaa rated, they're not cash proxies anymore and a lot of transactions can simply not occur, because there is no cash proxy for them. >> as you know, erin, the other part of this is, this is occurring in a context of enormous anxiety in the markets about europe. and if you combine a lack of political leadership in europe with yet now another failure of a political leadership in america, it's that combination that casts us into an uncertain place. who can say with certainty how the markets will respond over the next two or three months if they simply fail this time out? so they're just playing -- these members of congress are playing with fire. they are putting our economic well-being, you know, such as it is, at further risk. >> that's right. >> and it's unbelievable to me. it's unbelievable to me, where are the people who want to be president? you know, the presidential candidates on the republican side, at least mitt romney spoke up today, the president, yeah, he put a plan out, but they're all awol, basically, on trying to get this solved. >> that's right. and as david just syndicated, this summer when we were having the this debate, they were saying, let's go over the cliff, let's default. this is a fundamental cross section we're at right now. the s&p cited political brinksmanship when they downgraded us and ben bernanke echoed it. here we are doing the same political brinksmanship again. and here's what's really sick, you've got political strategists in both parties counseling them not to make a deal, saying, we'll deal with it after the election. let's keep the election year issue alive. that is so fundamentally irresponsible. we cannot kick this down the road any further. we need to deal. >> and it is. and i'll give the final word to you, jim bianco. because once it happens and you lose the faith of the markets, it's not like all of a sudden when you deal with it, it's fine. >> no, that's what happened in europe. if you want a one-sentence thing to what happened in europe, they borrowed too much money, they kicked the problem down the road until it was too late. and now they're dealing with 20% interest rates over there. and if we start doing that, we're going to get to the point where the markets are going to blow up, they're going to promise a deal, and the markets are not going to right themselves. that's what happened in europe a year and a half ago and we see the mess they're in now and we're playing that same game. >> thanks very much to all three of you. sure hope those super committee members are watching and listening and taking it to heart. 20% interest rates or the remaining best economy in the world. it's a choice and they can make it. all right, "outfront" next, newt's payout is getting bigger and bigger and bigger. new reporting on how much gingrich earned from john avalon. and two deaths that might have been murder. a woman found hanging in her home. and 30 years after police ruled natalie wood's death an accident, her case is reopened. we talk to someone who was with her the night she died. and wildfires rip through reno. we go there tonight in the "outfront 5." tltltltltle emotional here? 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of course, it is. well, that's honest graft." that's our political play of the day. that's honest graft. its perpetuation is still disgusting all these years later. erin? >> that whole insider trading things is always -- it's about time. thanks so much to john avalon. we've got a fresh investigation into the death of screen legend natalie wood. after getting, quote, credible evidence, the los angeles county sheriff's department reopened the case today. now, wood was married to actor robert wagner and starred alongside the likes of james dean and warren beatty. she was found drowned off the coast of california in 1981. she was boating with her husband and with actor christopher walken. her death was ruled an accident. marti rulli wrote "good-bye natal natalie, good-bye splen swrn dour" with dennis davern, who was on board the night wood died. marti, you turned over information to the sheriff just a couple months ago. was it new or information from the book, which was published two years ago. >> it was information from the book and information i had learned from the course of writing the book. there was nothing really new with the information, but what i think made the difference was that because i had sent the department a book after the book was published, but i condensed it, i compressed it, i put it into bullet form with the crucial and critical information standing out. and i think reading it and the information in that format made a the difference, because they saw everything in outline form, and there were a lot of things that needed attention that this case did not receive in 1981. >> dennis, let me ask you. you were there that night. you said before that you had lied to police back at the time when you told them your version of what happened. why didn't you tell the truth sooner? and what is the truth, as you see it now? >> well, actually, i really didn't lie. what it was, none of us really just told everything that happened that weekend. >> so what did you leave out? >> i believe we left out the, um, the big fight that happened on saturday night that was just an enormous fight. the wine smashing incident on the coffee table. >> and who was the fight between? natalie and whom? >> the fight was between the jealousy, the rage of robert wagner, was between robert wagner and christopher walken, because robert wagner was so jealous of christopher. that's what the fight was all about. >> and, so, what is the takeaway, marti? what do you think, now, is the version, or what are police looking into? have they told you based on your book and what dennis is saying, what they're now looking into? >> what they're doing is actually giving natalie, natalie's case, the investigation that it deserved. back in 1981, a few questions were asked, robert wagner and christopher walken were whisked away in a helicopter to go home and grieve. there was barely any questions asked. there was no investigation on lots of the issues involved. and the case was closed within a few days. ruled accidental drowning and it left many unanswered questions. >> well, one final question to you, then, dennis, do you now think that it was murder? >> no, i can't say it was really murder. the only thing i'm really happy about is, to me, i think it's the generation of detectives today that are taking the interest to do a proper investigation. and that will all be in their hands. >> all right. well, thanks very much to both of you. so many people will remember them and we'll be watching. we have the latest developments in the penn state rape scandal. sandusky's second mile charity could be folding. and did the school do enough in its investigation? we're going to go there live tonight and get the latest from mike galanos and his sources on the ground. and now there are similar accusations of molestation coming out of syracuse university. a man who knows the accused and has known him for 25 years on our program tonight. all this and the story we can't resist, "outfront" next. and tastes simply delicious. for those of us with lactose intolerance... lactaid® milk. the original 100% lactose-free milk. and here's what we did today: supported nearly 3 million steady jobs across our country... ... scientists, technicians, engineers, machinists... ... adding nearly 400 billion dollars to our economy... we're at work providing power to almost a quarter of our homes and businesses... ... and giving us cleaner rides to work and school... and tomorrow, we could do even more. cleaner, domestic, abundant and creating jobs now. we're america's natural gas. the smarter power, today. learn more at anga.us. fore! no matter what small business you are in, managing expenses seems to... get in the way. not anymore. ink, the small business card from chase introduces jot an on-the-go expense app made exclusively for ink customers. custom categorize your expenses anywhere. save time and get back to what you love. the latest innovation. only for ink customers. learn more at chase.com/ink okay... uhh. the bad news, it's probably totaled. the good news is, you don't have to pay your deductible. with vanishing deductible from nationwide insurance, you got $100 off for every year of safe driv