2012. we were getting you up to speed on the bizarre fires. look at this man with the ponytail. he's been arrested. this is the worst string of fires in that city since the riots of '92. get this. there may be annism grags beef allegedly involved with this arrest. lots more to tell yu about that. that's coming up. >> he looked like he was kind of smirking in that video. a man accused of killing a park ranger is found dead fats down in a waterfall. apparently the exposure to all the cold there. the mountain is shut down as the rangers regroup and mourn the loss of one of their own. >> we don't worry so much that the sniper is out there. they've shut down the search. they pretty much figure they've got the guy. also, did you feel it this morning when you woke up or did you have to shovel it? it has been a serious cold day in the midwest. it's basically slamming us this weather. it's actually moving into the east as well. a couple feet of snow in some places in the great lakes and down in the appalachians as well. if you woke up to see this or feel it, you're not alone. there's strength in numbers. >> terrible. did you feel that cold blast of air this morning. >> look at miss yfrnlthsz. she's sleeveless. >> nothing like a nice warm studio on caucus day. >> let's start with decision day in iowa. we've heard from the candidates. now it's time to hear from the people. after hundreds of town hall, dozens of bus tours, the candidates are making final pitch for your vote. mitt romney confident but hedging, careful not to sound overconfident, however. >> i'd love to be number one. anybody would be. but coming in second or third is fine if we're all close together. it would give all three of us as a new boost as we go into new hampshire, south carolina and florida. my guess is if the polls are right, three people will have some supercharge coming out of iowa. >> did you hear newt gingrich admit he couldn't win iowa? he insists romney's campaign is fatally flawed. >> he can't attract any conservatives in a party that is basically conservative. that bodes badly for his long-term prospects. i think i'll actually leave here strategically in better position than governor romney. >> that was on piers morgan last night. bachmann led in june, cain in october, gingrich and pauld both front-runners in december. now it looks like romney is on top. joining us live from iowa erick erickson editor in chief of. and rubin red rhett, "washington post." i think it's an understatement to say this is an unsettled field. seven head changes in the last six months. romney has been holding pretty steady here, 24%, 25%. has he reached his ceiling or can he get this conservative base back on board with him? >> i think he will probably go up in the polls. by the way, the des moines river is starting to freeze over. that's how cold it is here. while he's campaigning around the state, you've got to remember romney has been campaigning since 2006, from an average of 23% in the polls to an average of 23% of the polls. >> but do we think that he can increase his conservative base? at the end of the day that's what he's going to need going forward. >> i don't think he can. >> he will be able to increase it some. >> ruben? >> i don't think he k. i think the problem is going to be if you don't like romney to begin with, it's very hard for you to warm up to him just because he's the defacto nominee or even if he has the best chance to beat obama. people will choose the candidate they want, not necessarily the candidate who is long-term electable. it's startling to see 3/4 of the party not warm up to romney. the experts are telling us oh, don't worry, they'll come around. i don't think they will. they don't seem to embrace his candidacy. that's not going to change. >> let's talk about who is in first, second and third? a lot of people are saying out there's oh actually, when you read this morning, they're thinking this could perhaps be a three-way tie. do you gentlemen agree? >> i think it is going to be a three-way tie. interesting, mary matalin was saying last night, the santorum surge has stalled out in iowa. it was big for a few days. a lot of people coming are undecided. they're not necessarily there for santorum. it looks like it could be a three-way tie which opens up the lead a little bit to people like perry and to gingrich and to bachmann if they don't drop out. they can still in until florida. remember, only ten delegates in the next two weeks picked between iowa and new hampshire. you have another 75 picked in south carolina and florida. >> let's talk a little about rick santorum. a lot of people are saying the surge can't last, he has very little money. he has no national infrastructure and no clear path to his nomination, that he can't even afford a rental car. how can he continue this momentum? >> right. i think all of that will change if he finishes first or second coming out of iowa. the checks will come in, people will be en tlus as tick. >> i'm not sure he's the best candidate. i know he's caught fire this close to the election. it's momentum that carries people through, enthusiasm that gets them out in the iowa cold to go out and caucus. i think it's really his to lose in that regard. it's very telling that mitt romney seems so enthusiastic about these three tickets coming out of iowa being romney, paul and santorum because he's not afraid frankly of either romney or santorum. maybe he should be. >> newt gingrich is saying he's not going to win iowa. do you think he's discouraging his base support? was that a huge mistake he made? >> i think it was. he didn't have to say anything about his position other than saying, i'm going to do quite well. if he comes in behind rick perry there will be huge calls for him to consider getting out. the longer they stay in, the more it helps mitt romney. romney profits from the confusion and the rise of santorum. these other guys, some of them like mitt romney. they want to decide do we want to risk mitt romney or make a deal and decide one of us needs o to go. >> ruben nef vet and erick erickson, we'll talk much more to you. thanks for joining us now. we've been talking about the really bizarre fire spree, over 50 fires that sparked in that area. now they're not burning anymore and there's this brand new video we can show you from an overnight arrest, the man in the ponytail has been brought in. he's 24-year-old harry burkhardt. they believe they may have their guy if you believe what they are actually saying to reporters on the scene, that they've got some evidence that came from his van. he's been charged with a single count of arson. remember, i told you there were over 50 fires. 53 fires to be exact in just four days. you can see some of the video yes eve been showing you over the last couple days. most of those fires were breaking out in carports, cars, particularly ones underneath apartment buildings. that's what caused the disastrous video you're seeing right now. the sources telling "the l.a. times" that this mr. burkhardt is a native of germany. may have an immigration component to it. casey kynan, it's pretty telling that all the fires stopped the minute they took him in. >> reporter: absolutely. as we were discussing yesterday about this time, there had just been a rash of 11 fires near west hollywood neighborhood of los angeles and into the san fernando valley. about 3:00 in the morning local time they did arrest this suspect and the fires stopped and we have another quiet night tonight so far. what authorities are saying, they're crediting a lot of different fires to being able to arrest this suspect. they say the key tip came from tuchlt s. state department because of that connection regarding an alleged immigration dispute with this suspect's mother. also they're talking about surveillance video that was released over the weekend of the man emerging from the underground parking garage here in hollywood and also crediting tips from the public who were very alert because so many members of the public were afraid of this arsonist who was going around setting fires to, as you mentioned, more than 50 cars. in the words of one l.a. city councilman, the city's four-day nightmare is now over, ashleigh. >> i'm fascinated. you say the state department got involved and that's where the immigration information came from. i have a feeling we'll hear more about that. casey, before we do that, i couldn't believe it when i heard the deputy who made this arrest is a part-time guy, actually a lawyer who moon lights as a deputy. he was vigilant and he actually spotted the van. what else do we know about this -- i shows we could call him a hero at this point? >> reporter: that's exactly what local officials are calling him. his name is shervan lal czarry. he's a full-time attorney in the los angeles area, working as a short period of time as a reserve deputy for $1.00 a year. sheriff lee back ka joked yesterday that maybe he'll get a raise to $2.00 a year now that he's caught, ashleigh. >> i love stories like this. this is terrific that this guy was on the ball when he was patrolling. one charge of arson so far, 53 fires. does anybody know yet what exactly might have been in that van that mr. burkhardt was caught in? it sounds to me like what they're saying is they got the guy and they feel like what they found in the van is the definitive connection. >> reporter: that's what they're saying. they said they found fire sticks in the van, only charged with one count of arson at this point, but they expect more charges to be filed as this investigation continues. they're still poring over the scenes. for now he's being held without bail. >> casey, fire sticks, i've never heard of that. i'll check into that more when we talk with the mayor of west hollywood who is coming up in just a few moments, he'll join us to talk about the investigation and so john duran coming up shortly. harsh winds and snowshowers continue this morning around the great lakes. beware, there are icy roads making for very dangerous driving conditions. meteorologist rob marciano joins us with the very latest on this forecast. boy, what a change. >> oh, yeah. and people as far south as atlanta, all the way down to south beach folks are feeling the chill. first we'll start with the snowfall totals. this is a lake-effect snow area. no surprise, but a slow start to the season, no doubt about that. 14 in chicago, 30 in new york. 25 in atlanta and windchills in the single numbers. streamers coming off the lakes won't be as intense as yesterday. nonetheless, whiteout conditions in some spots and we have lake-effect snow warnings cleveland through buffalo, east towards syracuse. could see as much as another eight inches on top of what they've already seen. three to six inches across parts of the western slopes of the appalachians. as far south as the smokies, maybe into the blue ridge across parts of tennessee and north georgia. there are your windchill advisories and freeze warnings deep into the heart of florida, not only this morning, but tomorrow as well. that's going to be a dangerous situation for citrus crops. it will slow down places like laguardia. back over to you. >> rob, thank you for that. every morning after rob marciano, at least we figure that will be the order of the day, we like to get you something called the "early start" to your day. it's about news that's going to be happening a little later on, still developing. we're keeping an eye on it closely. >> we'll begin in china where a senior u.s. diplomat arrives in beijing. kurt campbell, assistant secretary for east asian and pacific affairs will also visit south korea and japan during this four-day trip. potential break in a cold murder case in massachusetts. authorities in hampton county have uncovered new forensic evidence in the disappearance and murder of 10-year-old holly per rain anyone. folks are saying they'll hold a news conference later this morning. in about two hours, the first family will be wheels down in washington returning from the lovely vacation in hawaii. tonight president obama plans to address his iowa supporters, but by video conference. >> you see what they're wearing when they left hawaii. they're landing in the northeast. mr. president, madam first lady, it is real cold. when you get home, i hope you have a sweater. >> i'm sure coats will be waiting for them or they'll be changing on board. it is 14 minutes past the hour. u.s. markets back open this morning after being closed yesterday for the new year's holiday. the dow, nasdaq, s&p 50 all closed lower on friday. right now stock futures are pointing to a lower open this morning. let's bring in christine romans who is adorable. >> oh. the first family is cold and the year was cold for stock investors. >> did you get the memo for wearing cardigans. >> i know. it's cold. >> nice to see you. >> thank you. happy new year. >> did you get a break at all since the market has been closed for three days. >> it was such a long and tortured year that you really needed a break. when you look at what happened in stocks last year, they barry moved. after all of that, at the end they barely moved. this year cnn money has an exclusive interview and they expect the s&p 500 to go up by about 7% this year. >> hey, party. >> 7% is really not enough. >> which ones? >> right. so 7% comes after the smallest move ever for the s&p ever. last year it was down .003%. it barely moved after ar ran spring, after the fukushima plant. downgrade in the u.s. the concerns about the u.s. economy and the european economy. this year, 2012, looks as though stock experts think we'll see gains this year, that's if the u.s. economy continues to slowly heal and if europe doesn't completely desolve. >> thank you very much, christine romans. 15 minutes, 16 minutes past the hour. time to check the top stories of the morning. the candidates have spoken and iowa caucus-goers will be able to speak themselves. mitt romney and ron paul leading the polls. rick santorum giving the good old push. many say iowans have the chance to change therapy minds. the iraq war veteran suspected of killing a park ranger is dead. 24-year-old benjamin barnes was found lying face down in an icy creek. he's suspected of gunning down ranger margaret anderson on new year eefs day. prosecutors beginning their case in the trial against hose any mubarak. he was wheeled into the courtroom on a gurney. he's accused of ordering protesters killed during that country's uprising last year. he could learn his fate by the end of this morning. we're keeping an eye on that trial for you. still to come this morning, a suspect in custody in the arson attacks across los angeles. we'll talk to mayor right after the break. it's either ugly or real pretty. the giant corporate octopus, the symbol of greed. the ugliest rose parade you'll ever see? 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[ laughs ] hey! good morning. welcome back. we are sitting in a nice cool studio at 21 minutes past the hour. there's weather all over the country. we're also finding out what's going on in your local communities as well. >> we have early reads of the newspaper this morning. we'll start with tallahassee, florida. >> i tell you what. this is a disturbing story, especially if you're a parent. in the tallahassee democrat, you've probably been following the story that had the drum major who was allegedly beaten in a hazing incident on the bus, robert champion. florida a&m is putting together something called an independent panel of experts to try to find out how to deal with hazing. they're calling it a blue ribbon anti-hazing panel. by the way, this is a homicide at this point. this is going to get a lot more traction in the days to come, and probably other universities will be watching closely what florida a&m decides to do. i don't know what they're going to advise. but it's interesting to watch. the hazing is very popular across a lot of colleges and universities. >> it wasn't violent. a lot of drinking, but it wasn't violent. >> so let's move on to the "philadelphia inquirer," mayor nutter is sworn in for a second time. lots of pomp and circumstance four years ago because he promised the cut homicides. so right now philly tops the list as the city with the highest homicide rates of the nation's ten most populous cities. so he failed. however, he does say he's going to take on gun control now, gun legislation. we'll see how he fares there. >> that's not such a bad failure if you get a second term. you may not have met your goals. >> it's kind of interesting, maybe it's because he is going after the gun legislation. he's got people fighting him on that. >> from one mayor on one coast to a mayor on another coast. a big story that has a lot of people talking. it tease series of fires in los angeles. in fact, we can rest a little easier this morning. police say they have put an end to that arson spree, but not before about $3 million in damage was inflicted on the community. 24-year-old harry burkhardt from germany originally in custody. he's the one smiling to the left of your screen there with the ponytail. not sure what he's smiling about. at this point charged with one count of arson. but officials saying certainly more charges may come down the pike because there are 52 fires that were raging in just the last four days. an immigration beef is what we're starting the hear about as a potential motive in this if this person is the suspect. joining me live from los angeles, mayor of los angeles john duran. >> good morning. >> we quoted a statistic that there hasn't been this kind of violent spree since the '92 riots. do you feel pretty confident at this point that the police have their man? >> you know, as i was driving down sunset boulevard to get here to cnn, it's the first night in many nights i didn't hear sirens all over the city. the last four nights we've had sirens going off, 1:00, 2:00, 4:00 in the morning, siren after siren after siren. tonight it's quiet and it's cool. back to normal. >> i feel that. i get the sense that people are at ease. i still am a little confused, to set that many fires with one set of hands is pretty hard today in four days. that's why i'm so curious as to why they think they have their person or if there may be more people out there who may have been connected to the suspect. >> there may be more people out there. i know the investigation is on going. the person in custody is being interviewed to see what he's got to offer. search warrants were served on his home earlier today. more evidence is being collected. there may be additional people. but to cause that much havoc in such a large swath of the city over the last four days, you're right. it does suggest more than one people involved. >> you say a search warrant executed on the home. we had a feeling that the first search warrant was executed on the van. comments came in overnight about the van yielding a plethora of information. our casey wian reported minutes ago that they found fire sticks. i'm not going to suggest you're an expert in arson, but do you have any idea what the police officials are saying when they say fire sticks and other evidence. >> by day i am criminal defense lawyer, mayor by night. i do know that we're not getting a lot of information law enforcement because they're trying to preserve the integrity of their investigation so they'll have a successful prosecution. i did hear of the news reports earlier this evening as well. it's important to remind people, it wasn't about setting cars on fire. cars being being used to set buildings on fire. the only cars targeted were cars in carports under dense and crowded apartment buildings. we felt like a city under siege for the last few nights, what were being targeted were rent controlled buildings with hundreds of people who barely had time to get out with kids, pets and photo albums. >> i have to wrap it up, but i have to ask you, you're the criminal defense attorney and you hear the state attorney is involved and you hear they have information about immigration possibly being an issue. >> we hear he had a problem with immigration decisions made about a family member. it was his way to take it out on the united states of america, because it is a criminal threat. it is being reviewed to see if we have something more akin to domestic terrorism. >> that's a tough case to defend when you have that kind of fire power coming in from the government. mayor duran, thanks for coming in. i appreciate it. democrats waiting to jump on the winner of tonight's caucus winner. they're already hitting romney hard. are they ready for a surprise? 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[ beatboxing ] what ? customers didn't like it. so why do banks do it ? hello ? hello ?! if your bank doesn't let you talk to a real person 24/7, you need an ally. hello ? ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. hi everybody. good morning. 31 minutes past the hour. so wake up! get in the shower, you're going to be late. >> you have to go back to work today. ashleigh banfield, zoraida sambolin. democrats ready to pounce on the winner of the iowa caucuses. >> i figure they don't want romney. that's my guess. we do this crazy thing, i don't know if you were watching yesterday because it was a holiday. we do this thing where we decide to call people and wake them up at 5:00 orr 6:00 in the morning and get their opinions on whatever is going on in the news. the person we'll wake up today, i could get in a lot of trouble because he was on the sopranos. i'm not going to tell you who it is. he was on "the sopranos," he didn't live to see the finale. do you have an idea? >> no, because i never watched. >> a good thing he's sleeping right now and not hearing that. so there's your hint. i might give you a clue later. i could be sleeping with the fishes for waking him up. he's huge into politics. that's a great part. what a great day to talk to him. 30 minutes past the hour. let's get you caught up on the headlines. here is a good one. a man suspected in the l.a. arson spree in custody. fires have stopped. police arrested 24-year-old harry burkhart in connection with more than 50 different arson fires that started since just last friday. right now burkhart is only charged with one count of arson. but they say he can expect to face more as the investigation continues. he's being held without bail, too. that says a lot. police are looking at an immigration dispute as motive. syria's state news agency reporting an armed terrorist grew up a pipeline cutting off supplies to two power plants there. anti-government activists tell cnn the assad regime blew up the pipeline to distract international monitors from continuing their work in syria. a and a very big blast of cold air from the great lakes heading east. snow, blizzard conditions, yucky, yucky winter, it actually triggered some bad accidents. take a look at this video, a crash on i-75 in northern kentucky. 41 vehicles. not good news there. tonight the iowa caucuses will start at 7:00 p.m., that is central time. the first prize for the republicans who would be president. mitt romney, ron paul and the surging rick santorum are the favorites going in. many caucus-goers say they could still be swayed another way. anything can happen. a lot of people are talking about a three-way tie. it's caucus day, what did you get me? i'm kidding. i do adore caucus day. it is the kickoff to the 2012 campaign season. doesn't matter if you're a republican or democrat. if you don't know, there's not a lot of coverage, the democrats have caucuses across iowa. it's just that all the focus is on the republicans. what about the democrats? what are they doing? does it really matter? p.s., as we move toward general election, what's the strategy? jennifer saki is the democratic strategist and perfect to ask this morning. >> congratulations on your new show. >> thank you very much, my friend. you're one of our first guests. let's talk strategy. i love this. i've been so caught up in the republican race and having such a thrilling ride on the roller coaster that i sort of forgot that there are democratic caucuses. at this point are you phoning it in? are there other candidates? what's the deal? >> well, look tlrks's a caucus every two years here, a little-known fact about iowa. what is important about tonight for the president and for democrats across the state that it's another opportunity for him to continue the conversation with the people of the state. he'll be live streaming -- >> by skype? >> sort of like that. he'll be live streaming into caucus sites across the state. and where that's not possible, he'll be over a phone conference. so he's looking forward to continuing the conversation. the other interesting thing about today and the next couple of weeks for us is that while many republicans, all the republican candidates pack up their offices and take their down signs, the obama campaign has eight offices across the state already. they'll still be open for business tomorrow. they've already made 350,000 calls to voters across the state. we'll be continuing this tomorrow even as the focus and the republican primary moves to new hampshire and south carolina. >> lets you and me move ahead to the bigger battle, the general election. i think you got this caucus and primary thing sewn up. in this general election there's a great "new york times" piece that came out in the last couple days talking about the democratic strategy, kind of har continui kenning back. a lot of people are saying that is exactly the strategy that obama is going to adopt, the old truman strategy. in fact, to that end it looks as though newt gingrich and mitt romney are picking up on that. look at the things that they just said about obama versus congress in the last couple days. have a listen. >> this is like a kindergarten play. how are you going to pass appropriations bills? how are you going to deal with anything for 12 months? i don't think t i looked at the tv and thought these guys are totally out of touch with reality. >> the mantra is this is a do-nothing congress and this is the congress's fault. he's forgetting he had a democrat congress in place for the first two years and put in his economic plan. >> here is my question for you, jennifer, if the battle is going to be strategically this is a do-nothing congress, is president obama going to be facing off against one of these particular candidates in the republican party or is he facing off against john boehner? >> look, we'll see. i wish i could have a role in picking the republican nominee, but i don't. i think what's interesting here is i don't know if mitt romney and newt gingrich are defending congress and how congress works or their republican colleagues in congress. let's not forget the last action they took was to take weeks to pass a payroll tax cuts. >> it's beginning. your strategy is beginning. i can hear it. >> one more important point to make and that's that you can't always believe everything you read. the president has had many successes by working with congress, health care reform, financial reform and he'd like nothing more than to pass the remaining pieces of the american jobs act. he will be working with congress, but he knows he can't leave all the eggs in that basket. just as he did in the fall, he'll be looking for many ways. >> come back again. i appreciate this. >> have a great morning. >> have a fun day and night. >> i'll try. >> jennifer psaki squloining us live this morning. we're keeping you in the pop culture loop by taking a look at what's trending on the web and in social media. take a look at this. it is trending on google. some people loved it. a 70-foot corporate octopus of greed made entirely of recycled bags, it hovered over protesters who tailed over the parade. some folks booed while others were just standing by in amazement. >> not the prettiest thing, but certainly makes a statement. >> it sure does, a big statement. i love this next one. ♪ what you want baby i got it . who is that? >> aretha. >> that lovely lady on the arm of her sweetheart apparently is engaged. she lost 85 pounds apparently in the last year because of a health scare and says she's a brand new woman getting engaged to her forever friend, willy william wilkerson. do you know the dress designer? she's talking about donna koran, val teen know and vera wang. the best part. she's 69 years old. i love her. she says i'm not pregnant, not a shotgun wedding. go, girl. love her. >> ahead on "early start" firing up the phone. i'm not going to tell you who he is. you know him best as joey pants from the sopranos. >> apparently ralphy is a huge politico. he loves politics. this is his day and he's a brand new grandfather. i was out to dinner with him a while ago. we'll wake him up and ask him what he thinks about today, the iowa caucus day. on my journey a, i've learned that when you ask someone in texas if they want "big" savings on car insurance, it's a bit like asking if they want a big hat... ...'scuse me... ...or a big steak... ...or big hair... i think we have our answer. geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. hi. nice to have you back with us. good morning everyone. this is "early start." 5:42 in the east. >> time to wake somebody up. >> this can either get us fired or it could really endear us to some people. we're dialing joey pants' number. >> looks like maybe we miss dialed this. >> i don't know if we're calling his cell phone. joey and i were out for dinner a while ago at a political thing. he happened to mention how absolutely gaga he is over the political process. i filed it away for caucus days, because i thought, maybe i'll. >> chat with him a little bit. >> wake him up and ask him -- >> the number you dialed is not in service. >> did he give me a fake number? this happened to me in college. we'll keep trying. we have a couple other numbers. >> that's what happens when you do something like this. very ex-tell rain yous. you take a number and dial it. you don't want to do it ahead of time because you want to wake up these folks. >> or the person in our control room dialing is terrified because this is a soprano figure and he's terrified of waking him up. let's get you caught up on the top stories. there's good news actually if you live on the west coast and if you're an american. a suspect has been arrested in the string of weekend arson fires in los angeles. there he is on your screen. there he was, this is the person they were looking for, 24-year-old harry burkhart suspected in this series of incidents. they say he may have been the person behind 50-plus fires and captured on video near the scene of one of those fires. the sources are telling "the l.a. times" that burkhart, a native of germany, may have been in a dispute with federal immigration officials. $3 million in damages in that spree of fires. >> you know it's down to the wire in iowa. the gop candidates making all the last-minute pitches to the caucus-goers. nearly every single candidate held the lead in the state at one point. right now the race is in a three-way dead heat between romney, paul and santorum. with 41% of caucus-goers saying they could change their minds, it could be anybody's game still. >> you wonder if the endorsements that come from papers make a difference because the des moines iowa register endorsed mitt romney. coming up later in the program we'll speak to the editor of that paper and not only ask about that endorsement but about everything going on in iowa. it must have been an absolute cirque du soleil. interesting op ed piece. we'll be right back with so much more for you. that bacteria likes to nestle into and they can cause the odor. your denture needs to be cleaned gently on a daily basis. i like to recommend polident, it kills the bacteria without causing any abrasion. when my patients follow my instructions, their dentures feel clean and fresh. they look forward to putting them in their mouth and smiling. ♪ tonight's the night ♪ it's gonna be all right >> i suppose it's -- tonight's the night it's going to be all right depending on which candidate you are. rod stewart singing us into good morning. it's caucus day in iowa. >> we are welcoming you back to the cnn election center. the race is incredibly tight and unpredictable. we're talking to rick green, the editor and face behind the front pages of the "demain register." are you there? >> i am. good morning. congratulations on your new show. >> thank you very much. nice to see you. let's start with the op ed piece you wrote. it's kind of a 101 on the caucus. we were talking to folks who said it's between two to four-years that you caucus. is it every two years? >> four years. >> why did you feel the need to give a 101 and encourage people to go out to the caucuses? >> this is an incredibly important day for iowa as well as the rest of the country. the eyes of the nation have been here for the past 12 to 15 months. we spent an awful lot of time listening to the candidates and doing more than just going to they're vents. iowans are incredibly independent thinkers, but also they embrace this responsibility so greatly. they've listened to the candidates, dissected their issues, their platforms and listened very closely to the platform. for everything we can gather, there seems to be greater emphasis on that responsibility of the republicans this cycle. there's a sense among a very large contingent of iowa republicans that you have a very vulnerable president right now in the white house, perhaps the most vulnerable since jimmy carter in 1980. despite the hand-to-hand combats and negative avds and this $10 million ad blitz, the one thing unifying republican ss can they take back the white house. that's why tonight is so important for them. >> rick, we're hearing it's going to be perhaps a very low voter turnout tonight. do you think there's apathy within the state because of the choices in the candidates? >> we haven't picked that up. 2008 was the record year in terms of attendance out here. republican caucus, a little over 118,500 here. the good thing, the weather looks great, no snow. a chilly night. we're expect ag pretty strong turnout. tissues have dominated this campaign so much. a lot of the attention in the past couple weeks or so has been focused in on the negative ads and the rise and faum of some of the candidates. it will be very interesting tonight to see who is able to bring out their caucus-goers, who has the best ground game and what unfolds in another 15, 18 hours or so. >> you have actually endorsed romney. how do you think he's done in the state since that endorsement? >> you know, what was really interesting is that mitt romney's crew has really tried to downplay iowa. it wasn't until a week or so before christmas that we could detect that they felt there was some traction here. throughout the holiday cycle he spent more time in the past two, three weeks than he has in the entire 14 months or so preceding the campaign. yesterday, the number of stops he made was greater than anything he's done in his entire tenure out here during his campaign. i think he's got an understanding that there's a chance that he could win this. there's not been a nonincumbent republican that has won both iowa and new hampshire in the same year. we'll see what happens tonight. >>. >> i i have to say it was huntsman who had some harsh words. can we play that? >> they pick corn in iowa. they actually pick presidents here in new hampshire. i got to tell you my mouth was wide open. my jaw dropped. how do you feel about hearing that? lau do iowans feel about that? >> it would have been much better for jon huntsman to come hear and express his vision for america instead of taking cheap shots at new hampshire. we're very proud of our reputation. we're proud of the role we play in american politics every four years. do we pick the winner every year? no. not every state does. but the role we have is a great tradition and we're very, very proud of that. >> thank you very much. rick green. good luck to you. nice talking to you this morning. >> thank you. you, too. it happens tonight. the country's first real votes. the candidates' first true test. special live america's choice 2012 coverage of the iowa caucuses begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern right here on cnn. right here in the election center, too. very exciting place to be if you've ever seen john king and a magic wall. goose bumps. still coming, thanksgiving revenge. a turkey went flying right through that tucker's windshield. poor turkey. we'll tell you how this things ended up. here is a hint. the trucker is okay. when you have diabetes... your doctor will say get smart about your weight. that's why there's new glucerna hunger smart shakes. they have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. 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[ male announcer ] want great taste and whole grain oats that can help lower cholesterol? honey nut cheerios. will be giving away passafree copiesl? of the alcoholism & addiction cure. to get yours, go to ssagesmalibubook.com. this is weird. a driver getting a wild ride in his big rig when a wild turkey -- i don't know if it was a wild turkey, but a crazy turkey crashed through his windshield. it happened in northern kentucky on i-75. apparently the turkey hit the driver right in the face. he's okay. he pulled over the big rig. here is the weird ending. he tossed the turkey out. my guess here, i don't have a definitive ruling from the hospital, but i don't think the turkey survived this. still ahead, police in los angeles say their four-day nightmare is finally over. the man suspected of setting more than 50 fires is now in custody. a dispute with the government over immigration may be behind the alleged arson spree. and just hours to go in the iowa ground war. we'll talk with our political panel about the likelihood of a big upset in tie wa caucuses. -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com can you enjoy vegetables with sauce and still reach your weight loss goals? you can with green giant frozen vegetables. over twenty delicious varieties have sixty calories or less per serving and are now weight watchers-endorsed. try green giant frozen vegetables with sauce. and a very good morning to you. it's an early start. not just for you but everybody else that's watching. hi, everybody. i'm ashleigh banfield. >> and i'm zoraida sambolin and we're bringing you the news from a to z. >> i'm lovin' it. it is decision day in iowa. will romney hold on 20 the win? what about that santorum surge? will that last? voters hear final pitches before the first real test's 2012. if you're just waking up, good news to report out of los angeles and the arson fires. they stopped. the worst string of fires since the l.a. riots back in 1992. it's a big deal. apparently that got got arrested and they're looking to it being related to an immigration beef. he's being held on bail. and found dead, facedown in a waterfall. the mountain shut down as the rangers now regroup. and it is really cold. i know it's winter. so don't call me and complain when i say there's a cold weather story. when you live in these communities, kind of around the great lakes, but down into the appalachians, it is cold. slammed with snow and cold air. one to two inches in places around the northeast and, guess what? it's causing a lot of problems and accidents, too. we'll tell you about that coming up. live in the cnn election center, thanks for being with us, and it is decision day. we heard from the candidates. now it's time to hear from iowa. caucus time. >> meetings, bus tour, all that stuff coming to an end. all the stumping in i w coming to an end. finally the first real kickoff for the election season. the fun part, really. we start to get some results. although they're kind of weird. more about that in a moment. mitt romney says he's pretty confident, but careful, trying not to sound too confident. >> i'd love to be number one. anyone would be. but coming in second or third is fine. if we're close together it would give all three a boost going into new hampshire and south carolina and florida. my guess is, if the polls are right, three folks will have super-charge coming out of iowa. >> so newt gingrich admits that he can't win iowa. he claims he'll do well in the south a little later this month. he tells cnn the piers morgan romney's campaign is fatally flawed. >> he can't attract any conservatives, and a party that is basically conservative, that bodes badly for his long-term prospects. so i think i'll actually leave here strategically in better position than governor romney. >> if you've been playing along, because politics is actually pretty fun when you keep track, here's how it fits. wild ride. total roller coaster. remember back in june, bachmann was leading the pack? in fact, she won the straw poll in august, i think it was and then, shazam, the front runner was herman cain. that didn't work out and gingrich and perry, and now romney is back on top, looks like. >> let's chat about this. live from the cnn center in atlanta, and conservative commentator lenny mccallister. thank you, gentlemen, for joining us. the polls from the des moines, iowa register we've been following the last couple of weeks here. there have been about seven lead changes in the last six months. tonight we'll finally have a winner. although, will we? a lot of folks talking about a three-way tie here. lenny, begin with you. do you think that's what's going to happen tonight? >> i don't know about a four-way tie. we shouldn't look at the first three slots. they're important. rick santorum a surprise. somebody that we didn't count on a month ago that's going to be in the top three, but look at that fourth slot. i really think with the forces that rick perry's putting on the ground, if he can slide up to fourth place, a blow to newt gingrich and a surge for rick perry going into south carolina. we know ron paul has a good organization on the ground. he's going to do well here and rick santorum seen as the most likable candidate, which may allow him to get to first or second place and mitt romney resurged back here in iowa as well. we kind of know what it's going to look like. that fourth slot, we may have a magical fourth ticket coming out of iowa this year. >> lennox that's not fair. we had it figured on three tickets in iowa. you've ruined it for us. >> we've had other things figured out, too, so -- >> what i need to you weigh in on, if that's the case, talking four tickets out of iowa, i'm going to throw in maybe five. they really seem fractured. if you look at the graph. i'm going to call it the graph. it's the glass ceiling graph. romney has been the tortoise to the hare. barely broken above that red line. the red line is the 25% of voters glass ceiling. never really broken above it. been below it, and the blue line above all that is the everybody else fracture. it's a problem. isn't it? if you're romney? it's nice to be the leader, but when everybody else has all the other 75%, once the candidates whittle down, what happens to your 25%? >> exactly the right point to make, ashleigh. look, mitt romney last time around in 2008 when running against mike huckabee, he got 25% of the poll. i don't think he'll do as well in western iowa as he did four years before. the thing to look at. does anybody in iowa, or going forward, especially the crucial month of january, the gauntlet you need to run, does anyone else get to consolidate that anybody but romney support? people looking for a conservative alternative to mitt romney? tonight it's not just -- it's look at the spread. you know, if someone who has a base as a -- a basic campaign, conservative populism like michele bachmann comes up in the caboose, it becomes tough to continue your campaign. the best thing for mitt romney is a fractured conservative field that basically distracts from the fact he does have this 25% glass ceiling, but this is game day. every poll doesn't matter until tonight. >> haven't talked gingrich and have run out of time. thank you, gentlemen. >> yep. on that note it all happens tonight. the country's first real votes, the candidates' first true test. special live america 2012 coverage of the iowa caucuses begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern time right here on cnn in the election center. over to los angeles now. apart from politics, a big story developing there. you watched as people watched fires breaking out all over los angeles county area. now those fires have stopped and now they have an arrest and now the search for a motive. 24-year-old harry burkhart under arrest, the one with the ponytail seemingly smiling. not sure why. this is serious, mr. burkhart. he's facing one charge right now of arson, but the police are saying there could be a whole lot more, since there have been 52 fires since just friday. apparently even federal authorities have been weighing in on this suggesting it could be immigration. an immigration beef. casey wian is our correspondent following this. he's actually out in california right now. casey, you and i talked last hour. arrest video, impressive, considering they had four days to fight these fires and try and actually make sure no one died which is critical. no one did die. but at the same time, make the arrest, pretty quick, and found something in his van which has been particularly specific. what is it? >> reporter: well, according to police officials as a news conference last night in his van were fire starter sticks. they didn't go into any detail what specifically those sticks were. the assumption, though, it was kind of an accelerant device used to help start a fire in a fireplace. we don't know if it could have been something else, but that's the way they described. police are being very careful not to go into too much detail about the specific evidence they have found at these multiple scenes, served search warrants in multiple locations throughout the city. they're being very careful to say -- to not say too much more about what these fire starter ticks are and how they actually helped start these fires. >> one thing they say, casey, apparently that the u.s. state department weighed in on this local crime story. it's been a national crime story, because they say there may be an immigration beef within his family. what's the story there? >> reporter: absolutely one of the things officials are looking into. we do know that the state department was a key player in this in terms of identifying who this person was. notifying authorities that who he might be because of some dispute he had over an immigration-related issue with his mother, but i should point out that los angeles police chief charlie beck pointed out last night it's highly inappropriate to conclude that was the motive in the arson fires. it's way too early to make that conclusion, ashleigh. >> i'll bet. they've got a lot of investigating to do with 50-plus fires and doing all of their work trying to put them out let alow investigate them. casey, great work. let us know if you hear anything else later on this afternoon. >> reporter: will do. winter storms in the great lakes causing massive traffic accidents, a major pileup shuts down a stretch of interstate 80 in jefferson county, pennsylvania. look at that. at least six big rig, 15 other cars involved there. 17 people taken to the hospital. two of them, we understand, are in critical condition. the only good news as you're watching this, no one was killed. >> oh, gosh. that is -- >> can you believe that? what a mess. >> and i don't think that's going to be the only situation, because that weather is -- >> it's brutal. meteorologist rob marciano joins us with the latest on your forecast. rob, my goodness. what a mess. >> chilly throughout. isn't it? >> chippy? >> slippery and messy, causing all sorts of problems. >> expanding down to the south as well. the streamers, the snow from yesterday, lightening up a little bit, but the cold is expanding. with that cold comes some wind. windchills as far south as atlanta. 9 degrees now. feels like 3 in chicago. 3 in kansas city. 0 the windchill currently in minneapolis. you folks in new york and d.c., around 20 degrees as well. binghamton, 63 degrees. even jacksonville, florida, 20-degree windchills. winds as far south as west palm beach and the entire florida, miami, how cold temperatures will be, threatening citrus crops for sure. winter storm warnings remain in effect tlup the appalachians as the streamers come off the great lakes piling up some of the snow there and more lake-effect snow expected, maybe another five to ten inches on top of what we've already seen in this area. as far as what we're looking at for day time high, chilly. across iowa, chilly. temperatures in the single digits without the wind now in iowa and it will rise into the 30s throughout the day today. by iowa standards, not too bad. >> thank you, mr. marciano. good stuff. by the way, i don't know if you've noticed, every morning we like to get you ahead of the news cycle, even at 6:00 in the morning. not just get caught up in the news, what's happening in the news and the stories actually developing that will be big tonight. and talks with chinese leaders focusing on north korea. curt campbell, assistant secretary for east asian and pacific affairs will be there, will visit south korea and japan during a four-day trip. and a potential break in a cold murder case in massachusetts. are you ready for this? yes, i fancy authorities in hampton county uncovered new forensic evidence in the disappearance and murder of a 10-year-old girl. it happened back in 1993, and yet they found new stuff. hold agnes conference later on this morning. the first family returning home from their lovely vacation in hawaii. they are expected to land back in washington in about an hour from now, and tonight, president obama plans to address his iowa supporters by videoconference. it is 13 past the hour. we're going to check the u.s. markets. back open this morning after being closed yesterday for the u.s. holiday. the dow, nasdaq and s&p 500 closed lower friday and futures turned it up and pointing to ay whoer open right now. >> bring in the frowns into smiles, those upside down arrows into upside arrows. christine romans one of my favorite people in the world joining us now. you're not just a business smarty pants but a politics smarty pants. >> and i'm's in iowa. >> mana from mervyheaven. >> you've got a farmland surge. when you look at small iowa farmers, the average farmland per acre last year was $6,000. one of the best investments you could have made last year, buying farmland to farm. i mean, you've got all of these people sitting at the diner and at the greain elevator saying should, i sell now? will it be better next year? farmland's doing great, home prices pretty stable, but the economy is an important issue in iowa. here's why. young people having a harder time finding a job and it's just this feeling of a lack of opportunity and a feeling that maybe america's best days might be behind it. that's something iowans don't like to even have to question. right? for the first time, its population was above 3 million. it reached 3 million people in 2010. when i was growing up, you'd say there were more pigs than people in iowa. people are going there to caucus tonight and they're going without this feeling of foreboding about their own job. >> which we all have. >> a little different there. >> what's the deal? why are they bucking the trend in real estate, in housing sales, in unemployment. not just bucking the trend, completely reversing it. >> a speculative bubble in iowa. there were low -- some subprime loans but not like the places in florida, nevada and the like. >> it wasn't inflated to begin wit? >> no, no. right. and all the deals, are you kidding me? maybe you are -- 25%, but it's not as critical there, the housing issue. and that farmland, anything has that has to do with a farm, going gang buster. deere, capital investments, still a feeling they want to make sure that america's going in the right direction, and that's the way people feel about the economy there. >> that's nice of them. everybody's caring for them, they care about us. >> they care about their kids and grandkids. >> the deficit is way down the list of their concerns. >> i think we're talking sports. >> if you want super bowl ad, too late. sold occupant. $3.5 million. for 30 seconds. look for some celebrities again this year, first-time companies and we're told, look for -- $ 3.5 million, a record. look for longer ads, maybe a minute, and cars will rule. >> and the economy is killing us you, yet super bowl -- >> always insane. >> the world wants you to spend your money. reach in your pocket -- >> a big audience. right? >> yeah. >> they'll spend money to get you to spend money. >> century 21 -- >> we know a few. >> i love super bowl ads. i can't wait. christine romans, thanks. >> thank you. time to check top stories at 16 past the hour. down to iowa. tonight -- the first nominating contest still could be anybody's race. horse race. they'll begin caucuses at 7:00 central time. 8:00 eastern time and right now if you've been watching the pollsish mitt romney on top. ron paul going in strong. rick santorum, tick, tick, tick, tick, fighting for that number two spot. maybe number one. and iowans saying, are you kidding? we could still have our minds changed. and responsible for more than 50 arson fires. that's him, smirking. burkhart. officials say burkhart, a german national was angry that his mother was about to be deported. the story of egypt, starting to present their case against former president hosni mubarak today. you might remember, he got sick, real sick, after being arrested and now is wheeled in. take a look at pictures. that's him on the grn he gurneyw they take him to court. accused of ordering protesters killed in last year's uprisings. potentially the trial wraps up in about a month or so. we'll watch it for you. we told you yesterday in the early reads a dramatic icy river rescue in utah. look at that. traps three kids under water. the parents are talking about the folks who saved their children's lives. i think the children were wree leased from the hospital as well. we're going it find out. >> a great story and amazing heroism. you know how we woke up our colleague wolf blitzer yesterday? not a morning man. we have known non-morning man anchorman we're going to wake up this morning. again, could lead to a firing. so -- >> no. we'll be back. >> it's a big deal. >> he'll answer the phone. >> we'll see. my mother froze everything. i was 18 years old before i had my first fresh bun. the invention that i came up with is the hot dog ez bun steamer. steam is the key to a great hot dog. i knew it was going to be a success. the invention was so simple that i knew i needed to protect it. my name is chris schutte and i got my patent, trademark and llc on legalzoom. [ shapiro ] we created legalzoom to help people start their business and launch their dreams. go to legalzoom today and make your business dream a reality. at legalzoom.com, we put the law on your side. why does my mouth feel dryer than i remember it to be? there are more people taking more medication, so we see people suffering from dry mouth more so. we may see more cavities, bad breath, oral irritation. a dry mouth sufferer doesn't have to suffer. i would recommend biotene. the enzymes in biotene products help supplement enzymes that are naturally in saliva. biotene helps moisten those areas that have become dry. those that are suffering can certainly benefit from biotene. discover visine® tired eye relief with hydroblend™, only from visine®. just one drop instantly soothes and revives tired, overworked eyes. and comforts them for up to ten hours. visine® tired eye relief. try now and save $3. were back. it's 21 past the hour, and we're getting an early read on your local news making national headlines. this morning we have papers from tallahassee, florida, and from philadelphia. we are going to start in philadelphia. the "philadelphia inquirer" to be exact. mayor nutter sworn in now for a second term. four years ago he promised to cut homicides. right now philly tops the list with the city with the highest homicide rates of the nation's ten most popular cities. he failed miserably. >> how did he win? >> not sure how he won re-election, however, he is saying handguns happen to be the problem. the proliferation of illegal guns and an epidemic of african-american men being the perpetrators and victims of the shootings. he's going for gun legislation now. we'll see what happens. >> to tall ahassee, florida. florida university decided to put together a blue ribbon board. a panel that will figure out how to advise against hazing. do you remember the young man who was killed, robert champion? he was killed in november. a report from the bus that he was riding, a band bus, a drum major. the report, he'd been going through a hazing incident where he walked down the aisle of the bus and i suppose your friends on the band beat you up as you -- i think he was beaten so badly, that's what they're saying. paddled possibly as well, that that's what caused his death, but it's still not 100% determined who's responsible but being considered a homicide and now think committee, while also advising how to stamp out hazing has decided to provide a memorial to mr. champion and a scholarship in his honor, but the big story, how do you stop it? we'll keep our eyes on those stories. and america is talking about a story that started out as a really bad story, quite honestly, the worst you can 345 imagine. driving in your car with your kids and this happens. down a slippery embankment into a river. this is logan canyon, utah. the man in the car could not get the kids out. this is what was so horrible. luckily, bystanders. eight in total, who were able to help him not only shoot out the windows, then get the kids out. frigid conditions. the kids were rescued, all went to the hospital, are doing okay and a reporter buy "the herald journal." are you on the phone? >> yeah. good morning. >> hi, matthew. so happy to talk to you. a good story in the end. awful to begin with, but the kids are all right, right? >> released from the hospital last night and they're doing very well. >> walk me through this, matthew. who are these bystanders, how long were those kids under water? what happened? >> you mentioned, on saturday this man and his two children and a family friend decided to go up the canyon and go skiing for the day on new year's eve, and on their way up the canyon hit a patch of ice and lost control in a bend in the road and ended upside down in these freezing waters in the logan river. >> the picture i'm seeing, the car is right-side up. were all of those bystanders able to right the car or move the car to get them out? >> they did. about eight individuals ran into the water, and after shooting out a window, where they could get ahold of the car and grab on to its doors and oepen the door, they managed to flip the car over, fighting the current of the water, i understand, right the car and were able to get these children out. >> how's the dad doing? by the way, i think i heard his mom, or the kids' mom found out by phone? she was at work at the time? is that correct? >> that's right. so the parents -- the parents spoke with us last night as a press conference at the hospital, and everyone is doing remarkably well. everyone is in good spirits. the children who were taken to separate hospitals on new year's eve, they a chance to reunite yesterday, and you can tell from their smiling faces in this photograph, that the ordeal shook them up, but they are resilient and they are in great condition now. >> oh, lord. i mean, it's such a great new year's story to be able to resolve, but i'll tell you, nobody wants to be in that predicament. matthew, thank you. happy 2012, my friend. >> thank you. a happy ending, but when you're listening to the details of the story, absolutely chilling. >> how about being a mom, getting that phone call? your two kids were under water 90 seconds in a freezing river and they had to shoot out the windows of the car. >> look how it ended? >> great, great. still ahead, police pulling over a fire engine. the question, why are you doing that? who was driving. wait until you hear who was driving it. and more. if you replace 3 tablespoons of sugar a day with splenda®, you'll save 100 calories a day. that could help you lose up to 10 pounds in a year. and now get even more with splenda® essentials, the only line of sweeteners with a small boost of fiber, or antioxidants, or b vitamins in every packet. just another reason why you get more... when you sweeten with splenda®. ♪ when you sweeten with splenda®. life with crohn's disease is a daily game of "what ifs". what if my stomach pain and cramps come back? what if the plane gets delayed? what if i can't hide my symptoms? what if this takes too long? what if? but what if the most important question is the one you're not asking? what if the underlying cause of your crohn's symptoms is damaging inflammation? for help getting the answers you need visit knowcrohns.com/tv and use the interactive discussion guide to speak with your gastroenterologist. good morning. it's an "early start." 26 minutes in the east. ooich ashleigh banfield. >> and i'm zoraida sambolin. we are at the cnn election center. on the agenda in the next half hour for you -- tea party's rookie caucus, first caucus in the first presidential race for the tea party, could they make or break mitt romney tonight? trying to figure out what will happen there. the chairman of the tea party express will join us to talk a little about that. and because our -- >> a rick santorum surge we need to talk about. >> because our wake-up segment was so successful last hour. we called joey "pants" to wake him up frp the "sopranos" a total bust. total bust. we're switching gear s and goin to wake up john king. hoop not a morning person. he's the magic, magic man. you have seen him on the magic ball? he's like lynyrd skynyrd way guitar. incredible stuff. i love john king. we're going to wake him up, talk politics in a minute. half past the hour. the top stories -- a man in custody, smiling for a strange reason. harry burkhart picked up in connection with more than 50 fires started since last friday. police are looking at possibly an immigration dispute as a motive to this. israeli and palestinian negotiator, meeting today in jordan. it is their first face-to-face talks in about 16 months. talks fell apart over the issue of israeli settlement construction in the west bank. and big decision day. iowa caucuses get under way today, 7:00 central, 8:00 eastern time and there's the man leading in the polls. suppose he's pretty happen right about now. listen, don't count out ron paul. don't count out rick santorum. they are favorites going in as well and now think are three or four tie tickets out of iowa. mkacmany caucusgoers say they could be swayed. and who they want to run for president against president obama. where the campaign is no longer about the polls and all about the actual number. it's also the first presidential election where the tea party is a force in the republican party. in iowa, 60% consider themselves a supporter of the tea party movement. so joining me now is amy kremer, chairman of the key party express and jim carly, iowa tea party activist. thank you for joining us. is it kremer or creamer? >> it's kramer. >> got it wrong. thank you for hanging occupant in the chilly temperature. we know that's tough for you. wep want to begin with you, jim. we want to look at the polls we've been talking about from the "des moines register." just in the twlooft days of polling here. it shows a surge for santorum, and i'm guessing you're not going with romney. not guessing, actually. it says you were undecided until this weekend. why is that? >> that's correct. because we have so many debates and everything. everybody's up and down. i had it narrowed down to a couple but hadn't made the final decision, and i did that over the weekend, i believe it was sunday. >> but what was your reasoning behind that? because a lot of people are saying that this is just a temporary surge for santorum. that he can't even afford a rental car. he really has no money in the coffers and this is it for him? >> no. this isn't it for him. this is momentum getting going and he comes out in the top three, then money will start flowing in for him and he'll be able to move on and campaign for the whole campaign. >> have you talked to your fellow tea partiers in iowa? do you have a sense that they agree with you on santorum? >> most of the tea party elements don't do anything about endorsing candidates. we're just trying to get our members to go out and review and analyze what's going on and then make their own choice, and that probably is why the numbers go up and down so much, because people are doing exactly that. then when you have a debate every two week, somebody gets beat up on it, their numbers go down and something else's builds up. that's seems to be the progress of the whole process. >> amy, talk about mitt romney. he has been courting the tea party, and unsuccessfully, but let's listen to what he told to republicans in south carolina. this was just a few weeks ago, and then you can chime in. >> i believe on the issues as well. that i line up with a smaller government, a less intrusive government, regulations being pared back, holding down the regulations, maintaining a strong defense. many tea party folks will find me, i believe, to be the ideal candidate. >> amy, do you see a situation where the tea party will ever support mitt romney? >> well, you know, we're just not there yet. we haven't coalesced behind any candidate. i thought with would by now. the people across the country, you're seeing it right here in iowa, 41% are undecided as of today. there are literally people going into the caucuses tonight, listen to the campaigns and make their decision from there. it's very symbolic what's happening across america. it's going to be really interesting to see what happens here tonight. we've seen santorum surge, ebbs and flows in the campaign, i don't think we'll have any surprises in new hampshire. i think south carolina may be a game changer and i think we may see the tea party movement start to coalesce behind one or two candidates going into, out of south carolina, into florida. >> well, but if, in fact, mitt romney ends up pulling ahead, do you see yourself as a tea partier supporting him? >> well, this is what i'll say to that. it's that, i don't believe that any of these candidates can win the nomination without the support of the tea party movement. this is the first time that the tea party movement can play in presidential politics, and anybody that thinks we're going to sit back after what we went through in 2010 and what we're still going through, because the house and senate still don't get it, if anybody thinks that the tea party is going to be talent in presidential politics, they have another thing coming, because we are engaged and they need our support to win this nomination, because they're going to need our support to beat barack obama, amy kremer, jim carly, thank very much for joining us this morning. good luck to you tonight. and, of course, it all does happen tonight. >> thank you. >> thanks for having us. >> we're happy to have you. thank you. the country's first real votes, the candidates' first true test, a special live, america's 2012 coverage of the iowa caucuses begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern right here on cnn in the election center. >> it's going to get crazy in here, folks. the minute wolf blitzer shows up, like cirque du soleil. i'm telling you. and we'll keep you in the loop. what's trending and on the interweb, yahoo! social media. training on this guy. tried to escape, apparently, from a county prison in san diego. a state prison, actually. a state prison in san diego, and thomas kelly, 51 years old, who apparently was working as a firefighter with the prison, which i've never heard of, decided to steal one of the fire trucks to use for his escape on new year's day. clever, actually. but, yeah. he apparently grabbed one of the fire trucks and one of the deputies saw it driving errat erratical erratically. >> really? >> dude if you're going to steal a fire truck to get out of prison, don't drive erratically. they got the truck. he's still missing. how about that. and they aren't superheroes or he-men. they're in other words. the new steve jobs doll complete with the signature black turtleneck and jeans. it's trending. people are upset he's pictured with a finy iphone accessory that's not included. available next month. folks, for $100. >> are you kidding me? >> no. an action figure for $100? well, maybe it's a collector's item already. who knows. okay. the thing we told you about, the wake him up thing, where we wake up friend and colleagues and a-listers and all the rest. >> big name. >> it's john king. i like to call him the magic man, because he's such a magic man on the magic wall. not a morning man. here she with newt gingrich. he's forgotten more politics than we will have ever read in a lifetime. we're going wake him up and get early thoughts on our "early start." [ male announcer ] osteo bi-flex with 5-loxin advanced. shows improvement in joint comfort within 7 days. osteo bi-flex. the #1 doctor and pharmacist recommended brand. forty years ago, he wasn't looking for financial advice. back then he had something more important to do. he wasn't focused on his future. but fortunately, somebody else was. at usaa we provide retirement planning for our military, veterans and their families. now more than ever, it's important to get financial advice from people who share your military values. for our free usaa retirement guide, call 877-242-usaa. discover visine® tired eye relief with hydroblend™, only from visine®. just one drop instantly soothes and revives tired, overworked eyes. and comforts them for up to ten hours. visine® tired eye relief. try now and save $3. this is my problem. i never remember my passwords. so sad. isn't it? >> i know. >> i'm trying to find our wake-up guy online right now. >> tell you one place where he's not. he's not online, because john king works so late. he is the chief national correspondent for cnn, and i met him years ago in the white house when he was a white house correspondent. he's adorable. >> i met him yesterday. >> first time? >> first time. >> he's really going to love the fact you're waking him up at 6:42 in the east. said in primetime -- can we dial john king and see if we can get through to him? here's the deal. as we dial him, you should know, if you don't already, he's married to dana bash, who is also a political correspondent here at cnn. >> the conversations at their dinner table, imagine. >> and they have a baby, and we're calling their house, you know, at the crack of dawn to wake them up. hopefully we won't wake up dana. look at them. adorable together. >> how young is the baby? >> six months? >> oh, my -- they're up already. >> probably up all night. in fact. i wouldn't doubt it. one of the things we love about john is that, well, that guy's all serious when talking politics. he is hilarious off-air. he's also very, very effective on the magic wall. we're ringing through. i hope -- >> john king. >> oh, come on. >> hello? >> john, it's ashleigh and zoraida, you don't just wake up and say, john king, do you? >> ah. good morning. >> good morning. >> don't you answer your phone like the rest of us mere mortals and say -- hello -- in the morning? >> go away. call another day. >> that's what wolf said. >> actually, telling everybody you're not a morning person. you sound pretty awake to me. >> i am awake. sleep is overrated. that's my motto in life. >> i love it. >> i think it's because you work into the morning. on probably late last night and on very late tonight. are you gearing up for tonight? >> i am. some days you do like to sleep in. not on a day like this. we've been talking about this election so long. the people finally get to vote and we're going to learn a lot tonight. first we'll learn who's number one, two and three in iowa, but also learn the republicans have the intensity to challenge president obama in this re-election campaign. by that i mean that we see higher turnout by republicans no matter who wins. we see the energy that the tea party brought to the republicans in 2010 carries over to 2012. >> did you just wake up thinking this? you just wake up and your head starts going all, like, strategy, republicans. is dana awake? how's the baby, all of these things i want to know about you. >> this is a little test for us. dana's in iowa, and i'm actually at the cnn election center. so -- the grandparents are taking care of little jonah today. he's probably eating better. having a lot more fun. i did send a picture, during the program, on my show last night. he was in front of the television watching. he's a smart kid. >> he wasn't watching? mom and dad are on tv and jonah's playing with his abacus? >> kind of looking off to the side thinking there must be more important than this. something nor more appropriate. >> i want to know how old your baby is? >> the baby was 6 months december 28th. doing great. he's amazing. he's a miracle. he's great. >> probably getting a little less sleep than were you. see you at the office later on. >> he says he's at the cnn election center. >> did he just hang up on us? forget it. john king, talking to us from his early morning bedside post. by the way, all gets under way. i cut him off with personal stuff instead. the country's real votes. candidates, the first true test, the iowa caucus. we've been waiting for it. cnn's live america's choice 2012, the coverage and the iowa caucuses begin at 7:00 p.m. eastern, 6:00 in iowa, but the polls are 7:00 p.m. in iowa. it's all coming out of the election center tonight. back after this. capital one's new cash rewards card gives you a 50 percent annual bonus. so you earn 50 percent more cash. if you're not satisfied with 50% more cash, send it back! i'll be right here, waiting for it. who wouldn't want more cash? 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[ male announcer ] the new capital one cash rewards card. the card for people who want 50% more cash. what's in your wallet? sorry i'll clean this up. shouldn't have made it rain. discover visine® tired eye relief with hydroblend™, only from visine®. just one drop instantly soothes and revives tired, overworked eyes. and comforts them for up to ten hours. visine® tired eye relief. try now and save $3. nyquil tylenol: we are?ylenol. you know we're kinda like twins. nyquil (stuffy): yeah, we both relieve coughs, sneezing, aches, fevers. tylenol: and i relieve nasal congestion. nyquil (stuffy): overachiever. anncr vo: tylenol cold multi-symptom nighttime relieves nasal congestion... nyquil cold & flu doesn't. when bp made a commitment to the gulf, we knew it would take time, but we were determined to see it through. today, while our work continues, i want to update you on the progress: bp has set aside 20 billion dollars to fund economic and environmental recovery. we're paying for all spill- related clean-up costs. and we've established a 500 million dollar fund so independent scientists can study the gulf's wildlife and environment for ten years. thousands of environmental samples from across the gulf have been analyzed by independent labs under the direction of the us coast guard. i'm glad to report all beaches and waters are open for everyone to enjoy. and the economy is showing progress with many areas on the gulf coast having their best tourism seasons in years. i was born here, i'm still here and so is bp. we're committed to the gulf for everyone who loves it, and everyone who calls it home. have more fiber than other leading brands. they're the better way to enjoy your fiber. welcome back to "early start." soledad o'brien comes up in about ten minutes. >> she's busy, in iowa, probably with a coat, hat and gloves, but she's inside. good for her. >> what's coming up? >> chilly inside too. i could use my coat, hat and gloves. good morning, guys. "starting point" for the day, about ten minutes away and. is decision day near iowa. we're talking to the candidates before they start hitting the pavement. their families by their sides in many cases, because iowa is a state where they talk a lot about family values. michele bachmann joins us live for the very first time. she's going to sit down for an interview with her kids by her side. she says she's hoping for a big surprise tonight. we'll talk about that. also, newt gingrich, he's going to talk with us along with his daughters. gingrich says he's been romney boated. we'll ask about that and see if that will force him to change some tactics as everyone heads to new hampshire, then south carolina. all that is just ahead when we start "starting point." . welcome back. this is happening right now. you are looking 59 live pictures from joint base andrews air force base where president obama and the first family are landing at this moment, returning to washington from a little holiday vacation in hawaii. tonight may belong to the republicans, but the president will make an electronic appearance in the hawkeye state speaking to his iowa supporters in a video teleconference. that is scheduled for later tonight. they're coming straight from hawaii with their hawaii duds on. >> i bet they have a wardrobe on the plane. >> i bet they do. >> being prepared. >> i'd love to travel like this. air force one, get on to marine one and right to your back door. wouldn't that be the best? especially what we go through with all the airline travel? >> it comes with all the headaches. >> i hear you. and we're in the election center for a very good reason. it's decision day one. decision day one. we have formally kicked off 2012 at the iowa caucuses beginning at 7:00 p.m. central tonight. tight and unpredictable is how we're calling the race. from the "des moines register" joining us to talk about being on the front page. have to ask you this. i know you probably love this season. i know that you're kind of a new iowan coming to the state about a year ago, but are you sick of the attack ads and all the negative ads that have been flooding your airwaves for the last several months? >> well, good to see you, ashleigh. you know it's been a $10 million blitz what we've seen in the month of december alone. ob ye obviously it's carried over to january. a wave of negative advertising that hasn't been seen in iowa to this extent. >> wow. >> incredibly proud, iowans are. they do their homework, research. they take this process that lasts an entire year for us incredibly seriously. so i think overall advertising spin hag been down this year but the number of negative ads has been up and everyone's paying close attention to that. you know, you have to admit it. it actually played a factor in the campaign. former speaker gingrich, yesterday talked being romney boated. we've seen the super pacs get into the action and some of the candidates numbers are really down. >> i get it when he says he was romney bodied. do you think that rick santorum has been the beneficiary of all of those negative ads? because his voters sure came from somewhere, and i know he's got boots on the ground and good at retail politics, but do you think those negative ads drove everybody to the next guy who has not been under the microscope? >> i think that's a definite factor in all this. but you're right, though. iowans respond to retail politics. no one has done it better this cycle than rick santorum. in a double cab red pickup truck across the state in a way we haven't seen throughout this entire cycle. the big issue. the "e" word. electability. mitt romney at 48%. gingrich 13%, rick santorum stood at 7%. >> very telling. >> definitely. >> rick, i wish high more time for you. i know you have a busy day. you'll probably be on tv all day, but thank you for being with us and have fun tonight as well. >> you bet, ashleigh. thanks and good luck. >> thank you very much. >> looks like he's warming up there. not exactly flip-flopping but newt gingrich after saying he didn't think he was going to win iowa has had a bit of a change of heart. >> maybe now he believes that the first nominating contest is his to lose? maybe he expects a big upset? maybe he'll pull it off? maybe, maybe, maybe. i'm so sick of it. can't wait to hear the numbers. coming up at 8:00, soledad will talk with the former speaker and his two daughter, who are very much a part of his campaign. because my dentures fit well. before those little pieces would get in between my dentures and my gum and it was uncomfortable. even well-fitting dentures let in food particles. super poligrip is zinc free. with just a few dabs, it's clinically proven to seal out more food particles so you're more comfortable and confident while you eat. so it's not about keeping my dentures in, it's about keeping the food particles out. 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