2012. we were getting you up to speed on the bizarre fires. look at this man with the ponytail. he's been arrested. this is the worst string of fires in that city since the riots of '92. get this. there may be annism grags beef allegedly involved with this arrest. lots more to tell yu about that. that's coming up. >> he looked like he was kind of smirking in that video. a man accused of killing a park ranger is found dead fats down in a waterfall. apparently the exposure to all the cold there. the mountain is shut down as the rangers regroup and mourn the loss of one of their own. >> we don't worry so much that the sniper is out there. they've shut down the search. they pretty much figure they've got the guy. also, did you feel it this morning when you woke up or did you have to shovel it? it has been a serious cold day in the midwest. it's basically slamming us this weather. it's actually moving into the east as well. a couple feet of snow in some places in the great lakes and down in the appalachians as well. if you woke up to see this or feel it, you're not alone. there's strength in numbers. >> terrible. did you feel that cold blast of air this morning. >> look at miss yfrnlthsz. she's sleeveless. >> nothing like a nice warm studio on caucus day. >> let's start with decision day in iowa. we've heard from the candidates. now it's time to hear from the people. after hundreds of town hall, dozens of bus tours, the candidates are making final pitch for your vote. mitt romney confident but hedging, careful not to sound overconfident, however. >> i'd love to be number one. anybody would be. but coming in second or third is fine if we're all close together. it would give all three of us as a new boost as we go into new hampshire, south carolina and florida. my guess is if the polls are right, three people will have some supercharge coming out of iowa. >> did you hear newt gingrich admit he couldn't win iowa? he insists romney's campaign is fatally flawed. >> he can't attract any conservatives in a party that is basically conservative. that bodes badly for his long-term prospects. i think i'll actually leave here strategically in better position than governor romney. >> that was on piers morgan last night. bachmann led in june, cain in october, gingrich and pauld both front-runners in december. now it looks like romney is on top. joining us live from iowa erick erickson editor in chief of. and rubin red rhett, "washington post." i think it's an understatement to say this is an unsettled field. seven head changes in the last six months. romney has been holding pretty steady here, 24%, 25%. has he reached his ceiling or can he get this conservative base back on board with him? >> i think he will probably go up in the polls. by the way, the des moines river is starting to freeze over. that's how cold it is here. while he's campaigning around the state, you've got to remember romney has been campaigning since 2006, from an average of 23% in the polls to an average of 23% of the polls. >> but do we think that he can increase his conservative base? at the end of the day that's what he's going to need going forward. >> i don't think he can. >> he will be able to increase it some. >> ruben? >> i don't think he k. i think the problem is going to be if you don't like romney to begin with, it's very hard for you to warm up to him just because he's the defacto nominee or even if he has the best chance to beat obama. people will choose the candidate they want, not necessarily the candidate who is long-term electable. it's startling to see 3/4 of the party not warm up to romney. the experts are telling us oh, don't worry, they'll come around. i don't think they will. they don't seem to embrace his candidacy. that's not going to change. >> let's talk about who is in first, second and third? a lot of people are saying out there's oh actually, when you read this morning, they're thinking this could perhaps be a three-way tie. do you gentlemen agree? >> i think it is going to be a three-way tie. interesting, mary matalin was saying last night, the santorum surge has stalled out in iowa. it was big for a few days. a lot of people coming are undecided. they're not necessarily there for santorum. it looks like it could be a three-way tie which opens up the lead a little bit to people like perry and to gingrich and to bachmann if they don't drop out. they can still in until florida. remember, only ten delegates in the next two weeks picked between iowa and new hampshire. you have another 75 picked in south carolina and florida. >> let's talk a little about rick santorum. a lot of people are saying the surge can't last, he has very little money. he has no national infrastructure and no clear path to his nomination, that he can't even afford a rental car. how can he continue this momentum? >> right. i think all of that will change if he finishes first or second coming out of iowa. the checks will come in, people will be en tlus as tick. >> i'm not sure he's the best candidate. i know he's caught fire this close to the election. it's momentum that carries people through, enthusiasm that gets them out in the iowa cold to go out and caucus. i think it's really his to lose in that regard. it's very telling that mitt romney seems so enthusiastic about these three tickets coming out of iowa being romney, paul and santorum because he's not afraid frankly of either romney or santorum. maybe he should be. >> newt gingrich is saying he's not going to win iowa. do you think he's discouraging his base support? was that a huge mistake he made? >> i think it was. he didn't have to say anything about his position other than saying, i'm going to do quite well. if he comes in behind rick perry there will be huge calls for him to consider getting out. the longer they stay in, the more it helps mitt romney. romney profits from the confusion and the rise of santorum. these other guys, some of them like mitt romney. they want to decide do we want to risk mitt romney or make a deal and decide one of us needs o to go. >> ruben nef vet and erick erickson, we'll talk much more to you. thanks for joining us now. we've been talking about the really bizarre fire spree, over 50 fires that sparked in that area. now they're not burning anymore and there's this brand new video we can show you from an overnight arrest, the man in the ponytail has been brought in. he's 24-year-old harry burkhardt. they believe they may have their guy if you believe what they are actually saying to reporters on the scene, that they've got some evidence that came from his van. he's been charged with a single count of arson. remember, i told you there were over 50 fires. 53 fires to be exact in just four days. you can see some of the video yes eve been showing you over the last couple days. most of those fires were breaking out in carports, cars, particularly ones underneath apartment buildings. that's what caused the disastrous video you're seeing right now. the sources telling "the l.a. times" that this mr. burkhardt is a native of germany. may have an immigration component to it. casey kynan, it's pretty telling that all the fires stopped the minute they took him in. >> reporter: absolutely. as we were discussing yesterday about this time, there had just been a rash of 11 fires near west hollywood neighborhood of los angeles and into the san fernando valley. about 3:00 in the morning local time they did arrest this suspect and the fires stopped and we have another quiet night tonight so far. what authorities are saying, they're crediting a lot of different fires to being able to arrest this suspect. they say the key tip came from tuchlt s. state department because of that connection regarding an alleged immigration dispute with this suspect's mother. also they're talking about surveillance video that was released over the weekend of the man emerging from the underground parking garage here in hollywood and also crediting tips from the public who were very alert because so many members of the public were afraid of this arsonist who was going around setting fires to, as you mentioned, more than 50 cars. in the words of one l.a. city councilman, the city's four-day nightmare is now over, ashleigh. >> i'm fascinated. you say the state department got involved and that's where the immigration information came from. i have a feeling we'll hear more about that. casey, before we do that, i couldn't believe it when i heard the deputy who made this arrest is a part-time guy, actually a lawyer who moon lights as a deputy. he was vigilant and he actually spotted the van. what else do we know about this -- i shows we could call him a hero at this point? >> reporter: that's exactly what local officials are calling him. his name is shervan lal czarry. he's a full-time attorney in the los angeles area, working as a short period of time as a reserve deputy for $1.00 a year. sheriff lee back ka joked yesterday that maybe he'll get a raise to $2.00 a year now that he's caught, ashleigh. >> i love stories like this. this is terrific that this guy was on the ball when he was patrolling. one charge of arson so far, 53 fires. does anybody know yet what exactly might have been in that van that mr. burkhardt was caught in? it sounds to me like what they're saying is they got the guy and they feel like what they found in the van is the definitive connection. >> reporter: that's what they're saying. they said they found fire sticks in the van, only charged with one count of arson at this point, but they expect more charges to be filed as this investigation continues. they're still poring over the scenes. for now he's being held without bail. >> casey, fire sticks, i've never heard of that. i'll check into that more when we talk with the mayor of west hollywood who is coming up in just a few moments, he'll join us to talk about the investigation and so john duran coming up shortly. harsh winds and snowshowers continue this morning around the great lakes. beware, there are icy roads making for very dangerous driving conditions. meteorologist rob marciano joins us with the very latest on this forecast. boy, what a change. >> oh, yeah. and people as far south as atlanta, all the way down to south beach folks are feeling the chill. first we'll start with the snowfall totals. this is a lake-effect snow area. no surprise, but a slow start to the season, no doubt about that. 14 in chicago, 30 in new york. 25 in atlanta and windchills in the single numbers. streamers coming off the lakes won't be as intense as yesterday. nonetheless, whiteout conditions in some spots and we have lake-effect snow warnings cleveland through buffalo, east towards syracuse. could see as much as another eight inches on top of what they've already seen. three to six inches across parts of the western slopes of the appalachians. as far south as the smokies, maybe into the blue ridge across parts of tennessee and north georgia. there are your windchill advisories and freeze warnings deep into the heart of florida, not only this morning, but tomorrow as well. that's going to be a dangerous situation for citrus crops. it will slow down places like laguardia. back over to you. >> rob, thank you for that. every morning after rob marciano, at least we figure that will be the order of the day, we like to get you something called the "early start" to your day. it's about news that's going to be happening a little later on, still developing. we're keeping an eye on it closely. >> we'll begin in china where a senior u.s. diplomat arrives in beijing. kurt campbell, assistant secretary for east asian and pacific affairs will also visit south korea and japan during this four-day trip. potential break in a cold murder case in massachusetts. authorities in hampton county have uncovered new forensic evidence in the disappearance and murder of 10-year-old holly per rain anyone. folks are saying they'll hold a news conference later this morning. in about two hours, the first family will be wheels down in washington returning from the lovely vacation in hawaii. tonight president obama plans to address his iowa supporters, but by video conference. >> you see what they're wearing when they left hawaii. they're landing in the northeast. mr. president, madam first lady, it is real cold. when you get home, i hope you have a sweater. >> i'm sure coats will be waiting for them or they'll be changing on board. it is 14 minutes past the hour. u.s. markets back open this morning after being closed yesterday for the new year's holiday. the dow, nasdaq, s&p 50 all closed lower on friday. right now stock futures are pointing to a lower open this morning. let's bring in christine romans who is adorable. >> oh. the first family is cold and the year was cold for stock investors. >> did you get the memo for wearing cardigans. >> i know. it's cold. >> nice to see you. >> thank you. happy new year. >> did you get a break at all since the market has been closed for three days. >> it was such a long and tortured year that you really needed a break. when you look at what happened in stocks last year, they barry moved. after all of that, at the end they barely moved. this year cnn money has an exclusive interview and they expect the s&p 500 to go up by about 7% this year. >> hey, party. >> 7% is really not enough. >> which ones? >> right. so 7% comes after the smallest move ever for the s&p ever. last year it was down .003%. it barely moved after ar ran spring, after the fukushima plant. downgrade in the u.s. the concerns about the u.s. economy and the european economy. this year, 2012, looks as though stock experts think we'll see gains this year, that's if the u.s. economy continues to slowly heal and if europe doesn't completely desolve. >> thank you very much, christine romans. 15 minutes, 16 minutes past the hour. time to check the top stories of the morning. the candidates have spoken and iowa caucus-goers will be able to speak themselves. mitt romney and ron paul leading the polls. rick santorum giving the good old push. many say iowans have the chance to change therapy minds. the iraq war veteran suspected of killing a park ranger is dead. 24-year-old benjamin barnes was found lying face down in an icy creek. he's suspected of gunning down ranger margaret anderson on new year eefs day. prosecutors beginning their case in the trial against hose any mubarak. he was wheeled into the courtroom on a gurney. he's accused of ordering protesters killed during that country's uprising last year. he could learn his fate by the end of this morning. we're keeping an eye on that trial for you. still to come this morning, a suspect in custody in the arson attacks across los angeles. we'll talk to mayor right after the break. it's either ugly or real pretty. the giant corporate octopus, the symbol of greed. the ugliest rose parade you'll ever see? 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[ laughs ] hey! good morning. welcome back. we are sitting in a nice cool studio at 21 minutes past the hour. there's weather all over the country. we're also finding out what's going on in your local communities as well. >> we have early reads of the newspaper this morning. we'll start with tallahassee, florida. >> i tell you what. this is a disturbing story, especially if you're a parent. in the tallahassee democrat, you've probably been following the story that had the drum major who was allegedly beaten in a hazing incident on the bus, robert champion. florida a&m is putting together something called an independent panel of experts to try to find out how to deal with hazing. they're calling it a blue ribbon anti-hazing panel. by the way, this is a homicide at this point. this is going to get a lot more traction in the days to come, and probably other universities will be watching closely what florida a&m decides to do. i don't know what they're going to advise. but it's interesting to watch. the hazing is very popular across a lot of colleges and universities. >> it wasn't violent. a lot of drinking, but it wasn't violent. >> so let's move on to the "philadelphia inquirer," mayor nutter is sworn in for a second time. lots of pomp and circumstance four years ago because he promised the cut homicides. so right now philly tops the list as the city with the highest homicide rates of the nation's ten most populous cities. so he failed. however, he does say he's going to take on gun control now, gun legislation. we'll see how he fares there. >> that's not such a bad failure if you get a second term. you may not have met your goals. >> it's kind of interesting, maybe it's because he is going after the gun legislation. he's got people fighting him on that. >> from one mayor on one coast to a mayor on another coast. a big story that has a lot of people talking. it tease series of fires in los angeles. in fact, we can rest a little easier this morning. police say they have put an end to that arson spree, but not before about $3 million in damage was inflicted on the community. 24-year-old harry burkhardt from germany originally in custody. he's the one smiling to the left of your screen there with the ponytail. not sure what he's smiling about. at this point charged with one count of arson. but officials saying certainly more charges may come down the pike because there are 52 fires that were raging in just the last four days. an immigration beef is what we're starting the hear about as a potential motive in this if this person is the suspect. joining me live from los angeles, mayor of los angeles john duran. >> good morning. >> we quoted a statistic that there hasn't been this kind of violent spree since the '92 riots. do you feel pretty confident at this point that the police have their man? >> you know, as i was driving down sunset boulevard to get here to cnn, it's the first night in many nights i didn't hear sirens all over the city. the last four nights we've had sirens going off, 1:00, 2:00, 4:00 in the morning, siren after siren after siren. tonight it's quiet and it's cool. back to normal. >> i feel that. i get the sense that people are at ease. i still am a little confused, to set that many fires with one set of hands is pretty hard today in four days. that's why i'm so curious as to why they think they have their person or if there may be more people out there who may have been connected to the suspect. >> there may be more people out there. i know