Gubernatorial race was not close at all and that, too, may be telling. Voters overwhelmingly chose the socalled establishment candidate Gretchen Whitmer over the Progressive Choice backed by Bernie Sanders among others. Lets start in ohio with ryan noble nobles. This race isnt called because there is a masmall marg between Troy Balderson and Danny Oconnor. Its a 1700 vote lead. The reason the election cant be certified yet is there are 8,000 professional and Absentee Ballots that have yet to be counted and it will take a week for all of that counting to take place and then the other variable that could take place that is if the margin shrinks to less than half a percentage
The latest news from around the world with hosts John Berman and Poppy Harlow. You snoozed in the makeup room. Theres a bag of wendys down stairs. Spicy chicken sandwich. Leave it alone. I had two of them. Fantastic. We have a lot to get to. Looking in ohio, so much money, so much time, so much energy spent for a three month job. These guys face off. I thought the statement by the Congressional Leadership Fund which is a big republican focused House Super Pac and the thing they said was look, were happy you won Troy Balderson but we dont have 3. 3 plld to everyone who is is a district that donald trump won by 11 points. You have lots and lots of
republicans getting outraised by their democratic challengers. Two, special elections are called special elections for a reason. There was one big house Race General Election last night so if you are the Congressional Leadership Fund or the Democratic Congressional committee you can spend your money there. You dont that luxury when youre looking at a Playing Field getting bigger and bigger and tilting more and more towards democrats. If balderson survives a win is a win, right . Or a win isnt a win here . Look, youll take a win, its an extra incumbent running in the fall, the net gain stands at 23 the democrats need instead of going down to 22. The fact is that this is a district thats been held by republicans since the 1980s, a district on the president ial level that donald trump won by 11. If you look at the races dating back to 2012, the average republican has won by greater than 20 percentage points. There are a lot more districts. In fact, there are 70 more districts that republicans currently hold where Hillary Clinton did better than this particular district so if the best that they can do here is
basically a slight win, that is not good news for republicans come fall. And when you look nationwide at this big picture youve got the democrat who beat the partys 2016 performance by double digits. The Washington Post this morning is saying the house and perhaps even the senate are within their grass in november so, yes, nationwide. What does this tell us about november big picture . I think pause on the senate for a couple difference reasons. Republicans are only defending nine seats. Democrats are defending 23, 24 seats, ten in states President Trump won. Republicans should be on offense. The map has shifted. Democrats are in a better place because of the National Mood but we arent there yet. On the house, if you combine what harry and chris have said about the ability to play in so many races. If you look at the kind of trump base rural areas, look into lincoln county, they didnt have those counties probably gave him the win, pushed him over the top, they were not turning out with major the way the democrats are. So if you look at the fact that there are 70 races that trend better than democrats and the protrump Base Isnt Turning Out with the same enthusiasm, thats a problem and the president clearly came in to help those rural areas turn out and that turnout probably did lead to baldersons win but but a win that hasnt been called yet. Alleged win. Maybe win. Even if he does win, i think what you cannot do if you are a smart republican is a mistake winning a battle for winning the war. Look, we all like sports. Youre much better off winning than losing but you cant think that this if youre a republican who sits in a district that is less good for your party than this one you cant think, whoo, Troy Balderson won. Im good. No. The lessons the suburban lesson that phil highlights, the turnout lessons, the Money Lessons all still suggest this is going to be a good election for democrats. Thats not a debate. The debate is how big does the wave get . And i dont know that last night proves it gets smaller. Harry, talking about canvas canvakansas. Thats a close race. You have to president s pick kris kobach who led briefly the voter Fraud Investigation that found nothing and there was no reason to set it up but i digress. He is running 500 points ahead against now 200. Okay, now down 200. Democrats are rooting for him. Long time since tip oneill observed all politics is local. Is this about National Trends . Everything ive heard when ive gone on the ground in districts and when you talk to members before they went on recess that s that this is a referendum on the president. First time midterms actually are and thats why first term midterms generally the party of power in the white house takes a big hit. A good sign things are not heading in your direction is when you come out of Closed Door Meetings and say we are only going to focus on localizing our races. If you go back to 2010 you saw democrats saying that. In more in 2014, too. In 2018 when Kevin Mccarthy and folks coming out of nrcc meetings saying this is about localizing our races, raising money and talking about the issues that matter in our districts, that means you have a problem. Now they have good frontline candidates that are at risk that could win, could win because they raise money. When you look at the sheer scope and scale of the map, when
youre talking about the Need To Localize Races at a time when its very much a National Conversation, that adds to the hurdles. Hard to localize elections with donald trump in the white house. There you go. Hard to do it anyway now but quickly, chris, the union vote in missouri. Yeah, i think not unimportant. This is right to work is something that a big deal after the Supreme Court decision. Huge deal. And weve seen union power somewhat reduced in elections. In the 1990s democratic endorse ment left. So whats difficult is this is missouri. Josh hawley, they got the candidate they wanted, republicans did. When you have enough elections, theres the good over here where you can say right to work gone. Thats great. Good Organizing Principle for democrats. On the other side its hard to
say josh hawley wasnt the best candidate for republicans and Claire Mccaskell still isnt vulnerable. Harry and i talk about this offline. With these elections you can kind of pick what you want. Balderson won ohio maybe. Balderson is ahead you guys are going to get me in trouble but thats not the end of the story. You can take what you want and the missouri right to work same thing. You take what you want from it. Well see, we only have 90ish days before were going to find more out soon. More wendys. Go to wendys, go to sleep double spicy chicken. Disgusting. Not healthy. Oh, really . Back to earth here. Minutes from now, Paul ManafortsDeputy Rick Gates returns to the stand for a Third Straight day as he lays out for the first time the roam he and manafort he says had and talks about the detail of it within the Trump Campaign. Also there is no relief in sight for the firefighters on front lines in california. It could take weeks to get the states largest fire ever contained. And of course we are following the results in ohio as they pour in, a thrace is too clorace tha call. Can democrats eke out a win . Ill have ask the vice chair of the Democratic National committee. Movie theaters, Exercise Rooms and swimming pools, public cafes, bars and bistros even pet care services. And theres never been an easier way to get great advice. A place for mom is a free service that pairs you with a local advisor to help you sort through your options and find a perfect place. A place for mom. You know your family we know senior living. Together well make the right choice. Come fly with me, lets fly, lets fly away. We cantwhy . Y here flat toilet paper ill never get clean way ahead of you. Charmin ultra strong. It cleans better. Its four times stronger and you can use less. Enjoy the go with charmin. Welcome back. We are minutes away from rick gates taking the Witness Stand again for a Third Straight day to resume what has been an explosive crossexamination of Paul Manaforts former right hand man and manaforts lawyers are expected to pick up where they left off, trying to smear gates credibility. Lets go to the rouse in alexandria, virginia, joe johns with me outside. What are we expecting today . Certainly more crossexamination, at least for a minimum of an hour, perhaps
more here. This is the part of the trial where rick gates really has to earn that Plea Agreement he has with the government. Hes been forced to make some damaging admissions not just about the crimes he committed and the crimes he says he committed with Paul Manafort but also about his own personal Character Flaws lying, stealing, heating on his wife, all of that coming out in court on crossexamination and one of the most interesting things i think beyond the cope of this trial, there was also a little bit of talk about what manafort and gates did when they worked for Trump Campaign in 2016. Manafort of course was the campaign chairman, he left and mr. Gates stayed on all the way through the inaugural period and there was some testimony from Gates Yesterday that even when
manafort left the campaign he was still trying to work it, one example was trying to get a banker whod helped him get a loan to be nominated for secretary of the army, poppy. That is significant. Joe, thank you very much. Lets talk about that and more with paul callan, our legal analyst. Lets jump off on that. The jury heard the extent to which manafort and gates worked for the Trump Campaign, the prosecution showed and presented these emails where you see manafort imploring gates to help him, to help a banker by to help make inroads with the campaign. Why is that significant . In a couple ways in this trial. If judge initially was preventing prosecutors from even mentioning the trump name during the trial. Now were seeing links to the Trump Campaign. In this particular instance,
manafort is in deep trouble by 2015. Hes run out of money, hes broke and he starts trying to figure a way to avoid taxes by saying that income were loans from banks and gates in the background is following instructions and dealing with this banker, steven caulk, who we later find out theyre pushing with trump to name him as secretary of the army. Obviously he was not named. The attempt here is whats exactly. It shows they were trying to use their leverage with the Trump Campaign to engage in illegal banking activities. We know that a lot more about rick gates this morning, frankly, because of what he admitted than we did 24 hours ago, among them that he was unfaithful to his wife, that he embezzled money from his former boss, that he faked an investment document, that he lied to investigators earlier this year after he had been
spoken to by them about a plea deal then Paul Manaforts lawyer asked him this and let me read it verbatim. After all of the lies you told and fraud you committed you expect this jury to believe you . Gates response, yes, i made a decision, im here to tell the truth, mr. Manafort had the same path, im here. Hes saying im cooperating, manaforts not therefore believe me. How successful do you think manaforts defense team was . I thought overall the defense team has been very effective in crossexamining rick gates. This is always a down side for the prosecutor when you call Somebody Turning against Somebody Else who made a deal. You can dirty them up for the deal itself but with manafort theyve got a secret life they talk about. A secret life with a mistress and he needs money to fund the secret life and theyre trying to say all of the feonefarious
activities blamed on manafort were orchestrated by gates to fund his secret life and hes had the courage to come forward to testify, say prosecutors. I think it was interesting, the New York Times laid this out nicely, that judge ellis at one point got involved and seemed to pick up the defense teams line of argument here because when gates asserted mr. Manafort was very good at knowing where the money was and where it was going judge ellis jumps in. He points out okay mr. Manafort didnt know about the money you were stealing from him so he didnt watch it that closely . Yeah, when i try cases i hate it when the judge jumps in and starts doing his own questioning. They do this frequently in federal courts. But i think a judges job is to call balls and strikes, in other words not get involved in trying one sides case or the other so im surprised that ellis did that and i think its a bad practice but i have to tell you, it happens all the time in federal trials. Much more ahead today in just
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