top of the hour. chances of the downgrade after the supercommittee failure. and a great excuse to pour yourself an extra cup of coffee. mark preston, live for us at washington, d.c., the home of the cnn debate tonight. >> the republican and constitution hall in the heart of washington, d.c., we are just steps away from the white house. these candidates are focusing on trying to sell themselves on a very, very key issue. that is national security. an issue that has not really been discussed a whole lot, brooke, so far in this campaign n addition to that, they are going to talk about the economy which has been said by some military folks as the number one national security facing the economy is the american economy and being able to turn it around. it will be interesting to turn it around. we have some candidates on the rise, such as newt gingrich, and some on the decline, such as rick perry, and of course all of them in the middle trying to vie for support as we head right into iowa on january 3rd. >> this is the first debate in which former house speaker newt gingrich is sitting at the top of the latest cnn-orc poll. i know we're looking at all eight candidates but who has the most to gain and who has the most to lose? >> well, everybody has the most to gain and the most to lose but you're right, this could be the debate for newt gingrich. this is the first time that he will be at the top of the stage. it was just back in june when everyone thought that the campaign was over. his campaign staff had left him. he had no money. but what we've seen in the last three to four weeks now is that newt gingrich has been on the rise. and the reason for that is, that republicans who are not happy with mitt romney, who don't think that he's conservative enough, are looking for an alternative. we thought that might have been herman cain. we thought it was rick perry back in august who burst on to the scene. he he has leveled off and we're seeing that in the polls. >> mark preston, thank you. the national security debate moderated by wolf blitzer tonight at 8:00. the dow is down for the second day in a row after the supercommittee failed to reach a deal. alison kosik, the dow was down triple digits. how are the numbers? what is the difference? >> the loss is not as steep as yesterday but investors don't know what to do at this point. today it fell 100 points and briefly turned positive. the way the markets see it, the economy, it's an epic fail. it opens up a whole new layer of uncertainty. still, the good news is, the credit agencies are going to hold their u.s. debt ratings right where they are for the time being. but you know what? worries of what happens in the long term, that's why you are seeing the selling today, brooke. >> and what does this say about the outlook for the economy and the u.s. credit ratings? >> yeah. analysts say that all of the uncertainty about what congress might or might not do over the next few months, it can wind up slowing the economy down even more. but the most immediate impact that you can see, according to many economists s. that growth could wind up taking a big hit because a payroll tax break could expire at the end of the year. in addition, millions of people are going to stop getting unemployment benefits early next year. you put those two things together and that shaves off up to one point off of gdp because people would have less money to spend, of course that is unless congress changes things in time. congress is really beginning to be known more for inaction than action. brooke? >> yeah, i don't know. alison kosik, thank you. never on "reporter roulette," weather is throwing a wrench in your thanksgiving plans. airport issues tonight, chad? >> right. atlanta certainly here. we have all of these storms back into parts of mississippi, alabama, moving up to montgomery, even into birmingham right there. all of the weather will slow down. this is the get away day for people that don't want to try to deal with tomorrow. and i think we probably are going to have a little bit of slow get away in some spots. a few of the storms have been rotating earlier today. it's all part of the same system that brought pictures like this from little rock, arkansas, over the weekend where it rained over six inches in less than 12 hours, water came up, couldn't go away. saturated ground for a change in the forecast there, which had been so very dry for most of the year. let's go back to the maps here. we have a lot of snow event here for seattle. all the way down to portland. this is going to be rain and snow above 5,000 feet. there are avalanche warnings. that's how much snow we are talking about. >> wow. >> we have a couple of airport delays right now. chicago, philly, newark, laguardia. atlanta is the big one that comes up around 6 or 7:00 tonight as the storms get closer, brooke. >> christina, drive safely, please. chad myers, thank you. >> you're welcome. a study suggesting there may be an association between drinking coffee and a reduced risk of cancer. senior medical correspondent elizabeth cohen joins me. i love my coffee. specifically what kind of cancer and how much coffee? >> right. it was interesting. first of all, this is huge study out of hartford and the women who drank at least four cups of coffee were 25% less likely to get enrriometria can sr. and they found people are less likely to get diabetes. it's a whole host of things. >> but i thought that you're not supposed to have too much coffee, that's it's bad for you. >> did your mother every wag her finger and say it will stunt your growth? >> yeah. >> what is interesting is that would have been a an old wife's tale saying that coffee may be good for you. it means that your of you're already drinking it, you're probably doing something that is good for your health. >> now, let's be more specific. all kinds of people have all kinds of different things in your coffee i bought you a coffee and if you put in about two ounces of whole milk and if you put in a bunch of these sugars, you're adding about 1150 calories into one coffee. if you drink four of these, 150 calories times four, you're getting fat off the coffee. >> it's just the caloric -- >> exactly. coffee on it is own has almost no calories. once you start adding lots of milk and lots of sugar, it's like drinking a soft drink. >> okay. >> you want to be careful about that. so nonfat milk and half a splenda is okay? >> yes, that's fine. >> that's your reporter roulette for this tuesday. still ahead, the secret combination of a home-grown militia. >> when it comes time to saving the constitution, that means some people are going to die. >> the feds say a group of bitter men wanted to attack and poison americans and now we're actually hearing their voices straight from their own mouths. plus, perhaps he knows president obama better than any of his fellow candidates. why is jon huntsman so behind in the polls? i'll ask him, live i head. plus, the pilot of a plane who disappeared after it landed. hear about the bizarre cargo found on board. and this -- >> tell me who that is over there? >> after six months away from home, an emotional surprise. pause the tape. there's a lot more to this story than just a reunion. stay right there. welcome to idaho, where they grow america's favorite potatoes. everyone knows idaho potatoes taste great. but did you know they're good for you too? they're high in vitamins and potassium. and idaho potatoes are now certified to carry the heart checkmark from the american heart association for foods low in saturated fat and cholesterol. so they're good for my family, and for yours. heart smart idaho potatoes. always look for the grown in idaho seal. [ male announcer ] shopping for medicare coverage? the annual enrollment period ends december 7th. now is the time to take action. call unitedhealthcare medicare solutions today. if it's interesting and happening right now, you are about to see it. rapid fire, let's go. december 13th, that is when jerry sandusky is scheduled to appear in court on charges of child sex abuse. the former penn state coach accused of raping or molesting more than a dozen young boys. also, florida a and m university has sus speblded more than 400 members of the university's ban after the death of another member, drum major robert champion found unresponse sif in a bus after a weekend. he threw up and had a hard time breathing and his father was asked about his health overall. >> he was in pretty good condition. he ate and trained and no medical condition that i know of. >> right now a task force formed by the school inappropriate band costumes or traditions along with police. you've heard about this one a. plane full of marijuana lands at the houston executive airport last night but the pilot, nowhere to be found. >> the individual or individuals that were on the plane abandoned the aircraft and we started searching the area and found partials believed to be marijuana from the aircraft. and in mexico, take a look at this with me, this is what $15 million looks like. soldiers found this stash of cash along with jewelry and cocaine in a vehicle in tijuana. the vehicle was believed to be headed to the head of a drug cartel. police will not say what tipped them off on what was quite a bust. the sailor sees his 4-year-old son for the first time in half a year. watch. >> tell me who that is over there. >> hi! >> yay. welcome home. >> he's grown like a weed. a bamboo stick over here. >> pride? >> yeah. he's going to be a good lig boy. >> but there's more to the story. the sailor's daughter, just born with a rare condition, had open heart surgery on the same day dad came home. and here he is holding and feeding his daughter for the very first time. we're told he will be spending thank giving at home before leaving again for six months. and have you seen this video? check this out. this is mexico's largest volcano and that massive plume of ash reaches two miles into the sky. it's about 30 miles from mexico city and so far we haven't gotten any reports of injuries whatsoever. now this -- that's very unfair for you to ask me that. do i look like i hurt my daughter? do i look like i hurt my daughter? >> one month after a little girl disappears and her mom accuses the media of not covering her story. that woman is behind bars right now. we're going to tell you why. plus, we're now hearing the secret conversations of a home-grown militia. a group of men with dreams of murder. cnn has obtained the undercover recordings. we're going to play them for you, next. their targets allegedly included the irs, the atf, and four suspects are sitting behind bars because om someone was listening to their plans. the fbi arrested them on the first of november and we are just now hearing their voices. they are allegedly plotting their attacks. >> there is no way for us asthma lish sha men to save this kournt tree without doing something that is highly, highly illegal. murder. that's [ bleep ] illegal. it's got to be done. >> these aren't young guys. they range in age from 65 to 73 and the federal government is taking these threats very, very seriously. george howell has been all over this. >> it's come from confidential informants following them months and months at a time. basically, here it is. this is the disk that we've obtained, sort of a greatest hits, if you will, and it's definitely a smoking gun for prosecutors. prosecutors believe that the men wanted to kill many people. it comes down to a judgment call for the jury. were these just older men trash talking the government, brooke, or did they have a plan to carry out these attacks and prosecutors believe they were getting dangerously close. >> let's hear a little more from this tape. we're going to hear from frederick thomas, who is described as the ring leader, about taking lives. listen. >> are you committed? >> i am. >> taking action. are they committed to taking action? will they take a life? all right. so, who's willing to take a life? we know what we want to do. we know how to do it. but are we prepared to do it? so that's what we're doing right now. getting what we need so when we go about doing it, we are equipped. we don't know when that's going to be -- >> right. >> that's the way things are going politically in the country. >> scary stuff. >> equipped. i remember you talking about castra beans. >> first they wanted to buy ammunition and explosives and the beans to create riacin. and we're seeing pictures of the beans that the agents took from the property. also, the plants that the beans came from. >> here they are. >> yeah, again, prosecutors say that they had a plan, a recipe he to produce the toxic ricin and spread it on highways and major places around the country. >> let's listen one more time where they are talking about their targets. >> who do we want to shoot? lots of people. when do we want to shoot them? >> yesterday. >> that's right. >> and who are we shooting at? civilian government operatives is who we're going to be shooting at. irs, atf, fbi, and the cops. >> when do we want to shoot them? yesterday. and you heard one of the guys laugh: what do their attorneys say? >> that the tapes were taken out of context. no telling where they were and whether they were serious or not and they also say that these two men were too old to be seriously taken as a threat. coming up next, the obama campaign furious today over mitt romney's very serious ad. it misleads the public, the president says. you decide for yourself. plus, the surprising reaction from the romney camp. gloria borger is standing by live from the site cht cnn debate. or creates another laptop bag, or hires another employee, it's not just good for business. it's good for the entire community. at bank of america, we know the impact that local businesses have on communities. that's why we extended $13.2 billion to small businesses across the country so far this year. because the more we help them, the more we help make opportunity possible. our machines help identify early stages of cancer, and it's something that we're extremely proud of. you see someone who is saved because of this technology, you know that the things that you do in your life matter. if i did have an opportunity to meet a cancer survivor, i'm sure i could take something positive away from that. 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mitt romney has released his very first campaign ad. let me bring in gloria borger. they admit that it is out of context. >> it's going to take a new direction. if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose. lose. lose. >> i'm going to do something. i call it the -- >> so that's the ad. you heard president obama speaking. but we just wanted to play you the original sound bite from the president. this is actually from the campaign trail. this is october of '08. >> senator mccain's campaign actually said, and i quote, if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose. >> so there you have it, gloria borger. pretty aggressive from camp romney. >> it is pretty aggressive. and honestly, it's just not a credible ad. i mean, you saw the context. barack obama, candidate obama was talking about john mccain, quoting john mccain. and you know the people who make these ads, brooke, know full well what the entire context is. at this point of the presidential campaign, you're looking for credibility. i don't think mitt romney bought himself one ons of credibility. it's just not accurate and it's unfortunate that they decided to us it. because if you want to take barack obama on the economy, there's probably plenty of stuff to chose from out there, wouldn't you say? >> you could gloria, we should point out, you're sitting at tonight's big debate, in washington. >> i am. >> and you know that, you know -- >> brooke, i want to tell you that -- >> yes. i want to tell you behind us we have jon huntsman. he's the guy in the plaid shirt. >> we'll be talking to him in a couple of minutes. >> the candidates come by and look at their candidates. >> we'll see how he fairs up there on the stage. any of these candidates has the most to gain and most to lose but who really needs a win tonight, gloria? >> well, i think newt gingrich would really benefit from a strong performance. he's popped to the top of the field. he's got some experience having been speaker of the house. i think newt gingrich will want to cement his lead. on the other hand, someone like per man cane has a very high bar he's got to jump over because he hasn't performed well on foreign policy. he did that have that moment when he was interviewed by journalists in milwaukee and had that brain freeze on libya policy and has said, you know, i don't need to know a lot about foreign policy. i trust my commanders. i think the question would be, what do you do then? so people are looking for a plausible commander in chief. they are going to see that from a few of these people. >> i'll be watching. you're there. i'll be at home tweeting away. gloria, thank you. that's at 8:00 tonight eastern. in a couple of minutes, i'm speaking live with jon huntsman. we're going to talk about from what he wants to hammer home tonight to why his daughters have become such a big part of his campaign. so we'll be talking to the former governor. that is coming up. also, a guy wants into a gay classmate, pulls the trigger. now after a miss industrial the teenage killer learns his fate. and listen to this. a little girl is missing. the mother blasted the media accused thors of not covering the case because she's black. the mother has now been arrested. sunny hostin is all over the case. she's next. why did we build a 556 horsepower luxury car with a manual transmission? because there are those who still believe in the power of a firm handshake. the cadillac cts-v. manual or automatic, that's entirely up to you. we don't just make luxury cars, we make cadillacs. a teenage boy accusing of killing a gay classmate is finally admitting that he did it. and now a 5-year-old girl who has been is for a month, her mother has been arrested. 17-year-old bren don admitted to killing execution-style in a lab when he was just 14 dwreers of age. his first trial ended and miss industrial to avoid prison instead of 50 years to life. my question is, why do you think they want to avoid a retrial? >> many of the jurors have spoken out and they were very uncomfortable with the fact that this teen was tried in an adult court. he was 14 when he committed this and they are very troubled by the fact that he was tried as an adult and it exists very often in cases like this. many are uncomfortable with be tried as an adult and i think that is really the reason why this deal came about. they didn