They are on the rocks. The Quinnipiac University poll shows trump right now stands at 27 . Senator rubio at 17 . Dr. Carson sliding into a third place now tie with senator cruz and former governor jeb bush sitting far behind at 5 . No other candidate in the republican field is above 3 in this brandnew poll. Cnns senior political reporter, Mallika Henderson is joining us now. Whats behind the polls . What do you see . Reporter its almost deja vu all over again. Trump still leading. Carson taking that tumble, and you can tell that others are benefiting there carsons tumble, particularly ted cruz who has seen that surge as well as marco rubio. And now i think you have this situation where its still trump and everyone else. And the everyone else is divided essentially between the carson, cruz and rubio bracket. And then everyone else kind of down there in Single Digits including bush. What a surprise that is after all the money he spent on this campaign so far, particularly in advertising. What do you make, though, of then the headtohead, these hypothetical headtoheads, depending on what side of this people land on, they care about the headtoheads or they dont care about the headtoheads. In this latest poll, this is not moves that donald trump is going to be happy about. Thats right. You look at these polls over the last couple of months, and sometimes, youre right, people dismiss the headtohead numbers because its such a hypothetical, right . Before you did see trump in the lead in some of these hypotheticals against Hillary Clinton. And now it looks like she is doing much better in these hypotheticals. Shes doing much better in winning these hypotheticals almost against everyone. For a time you had carson doing better in terms of hypotheticals. But again, i do think those are some of the numbers that people dont pay much attention to. But i think the people who do Pay Attention to them are people like Bernie Sanders who is doing well in some of these headtohead matchups, too, against a republican hypothetical republican nominee. And one of the groups that people definitely do Pay Attention to especially in some of the early states is evangelicals and where they stand right now. Where is their support . Well, the thing here this is the surprise. Donald trump, again, is doing well with evangelicals. Hes at 24 . Youve got cruz at 24 . And then carson, who in many ways, had been the leader with evangelicals, hes in third. And that number, i think, tells you why hes doing poorly overall. So again, here is trump who people dont necessarily think of as the evangelical candidate leading with this allimportant bloc, and that tells you also why hes doing so well in iowa. Even among evangelical leaders that we speak with, there is a bit of befuddlemenbe but we continue to watch. Nia, thank you so much. Great to see you. Thank you, kate. Joining me now is republican consultant bruce hanes as well as former Obama Administration official van jones and scotty hughes, chief Political Correspondent for usa Radio Networks who has also spoken favorably of mr. Trump in the past. Its great to see you all. A lot to get through in these polls, as always. Scotty, first to you and the big headline that were seeing here, donald trump, double digits. Ben carson, hes falling from being neck and neck with donald trump just a month ago. The big change a lot of folks will point to is the fact that hes had controversy surrounding him that has dinged his number. Why do controversies impact ben carsons support but not donald trump . Because hes definitely a man who has controversy around him at every turn. I think the key is and this is what, when you look at all four of the people that are leading is about weakness. And when you see ben carson, he surges when he shows strength. And when he starts to backtrack or apologize for some of his comments, you see his numbers start to fall. And thats one thing you dont see with trump. Whether hes right or wrong, he still surges forward and does not apologize. I think the real message to the gop looking at those numbers are, theyve always said that conservatives were the minority of the Republican Party. Well, right now if you look at all four of those leaders, those are the top four conservative tea party leaders. So obviously, i think the silent majority has awoken and has put the four at the top. As niamalika was talking about earlier, these headtoheads, theres moves here that donald trump is not going to be happy about despite the fact that he has said over and over again that he is beating Hillary Clinton and beating her badly and would beat her badly. Her lead in these hypothetical headtoheads, her lead is widening. This kind of goes to the fear that were hearing more and more about from Establishment Republicans. The New York Times writing an article saying its not just fear, its panic among Establishment Republicans that donald trump will be, could be the nominee. Why but at the same time, no ones ready to take him on, at least amongst the establishment, they say. Why not . Well, dont count me among anybody in the establishment thats panicking about a poll thats a year away from the election. I think what really needs to happen in the Republican Party is less of a focus on donald trump and more of a focus on how do you consolidate the vote around donald trump . If you look at the quinnipiac poll, Bernie Sanders has almost the same amount of vote in the democratic primary that donald trump has in the republican primary. But were not talking about Bernie Sanders because that other vote is consolidated around Hillary Clinton. So i think as you see rubio and cruz start to surge, carson, because as scottie said, hes kind of become an uncertain candidate, and uncertainty translates to weakness. As you see rube crow and cruz begin to surge, were going to find one or two of those candidates that begin to consolidate that vote, and then well have a real race and well see if trumps candidacy is sustainable. Its been sustainable despite people saying very similar to things youre saying all summer long. Thats right. Van, to you, lets talk about the frontrunners and Hillary Clinton for a second. One of the things that doesnt add up in this poll and this goes to both on the democratic side and on the republican side is who is leading and who is liked . Both of the frontrunners, well put up the favorability numbers, both of the frontrunners have the highest unfavorable numbers. Explain this. Well, you know, part of the thing is what you have to remember is we all just came back there thanksgiving. When you get away from the political bubble, when youre at waffle house, youre at walmart, youre in the laundromat, youre talking to real people. The only people some people have heard of is Hillary Clinton and donald trump. They may not like them, but their name i. D. Is still carrying forward a lot of this momentum. Another thing about trump, hes bounced around inside the same numbers since he announced. Hes always been somewhere between 22 , 23 , 26 , 27 , sometimes up to 30 , but hes not growing. Hes just kind of bouncing around. Yeah, but van, that is a number that people like jeb bush would dream of right now. You can take a zero off that number, and he could dream to be bouncing around there. Thats true. My point is you still have a bunch of republicans out there who now they know trumps in the race. Theyve got a bunch of weak candidates. They still have not gone to trump. I think trump may have a ceiling were not talking about. I want to get you i get really excited, scottie, and you can weigh in on this, whenever we can throw up a pie chart on tv. I though that drives people crazy. Lets put this up and ill get your take really, really quickly. This goes to the money spent by the campaigns on ads. I want everyone to squint at your television and find the slice of the pie that is donald trump. Yeah. You cant see it, actually. Its that small. But then look how much jeb bush has spent. What is the deal here, bruce . Youve dealt with media strategy for the rnc. What is the deal here in this election where numbers the number of dollars spent towards ads is not equating to bumps to changing of the numbers in the polls . Well, i think its the value of the other kinds of media that donald trump has been able to generate that actual lly dwarfs whats been spent in ads by other candidates. You look at the debates, and 23 Million Viewers are tuning into cnn debates. Well see if you guys can top that on december 15th when you have the next debate. You know, you look at donald trump, he gives live speeches places and Cable Networks carry them live for 30 minutes at a time which dwarfs the value of a 30second television ad. And were seeing the candidate deliver his message unfiltered, unscripted, sitdown interviews. This is much more valuable to a candidate than the presentation of a 30second ad, and donald trump frankly has ben a genius in obtaining that time and using it to his great benefit. Scottie, i want to get your quick take. Another headline has to do with the second tier here. This new fight that were seeing between rubio and ted cruz. This is, i think, the fight to watch Going Forward. I think we can all agree on that. Were already kind of seeing that and been trying to make distinctions amongst each other. Cruz in a new interview trying to lump marco rubio with president obama and Hillary Clinton in terms of their Foreign Policy approach. Cruz saying that he would not he would want to leave Bashar Al Assad in syria in place. Do you think that distinction can stick . Is that a good Foreign Policy place for ted cruz to be . I think thats a very good distinction because right now we sit there and ted cruz points out that over and over again, we take out these leaders and we dont have i aplan. Like this administration does not have a plan in assad comes in and groups like isis come in and take over. This is a good distinction for cruz to make from rubio because they do share a large part of the same base. The other distinction is going to be this immigration policy. The policy that put trump on top, the policy that put cruz on top is severely different from what marco rubio has. So i think this is a great distinction. However, i think the fight Going Forward is going to be cruz the media or the establishment putting cruz up against trump. Because that right there, theyre probably the one taz sha ones that share the closest base. They havent yet fought each other. We havent seen that but i have a strange feeling were going to see that fight start very soon. Maybe the next debate. Great to see you, guys. Thank you so much. Do not forget that the last gop debate of the year is happening right here on cnn december 15th. Our good friend wolf blitzer will be moderating. Do not miss it. Again, december 15th starting at 9 00 p. M. Moments ago, donald trump he said if hes president , hes take out the families of terrorists. Why he says america is now fighting a politically correct war. Plus, did the white house ignore warnings about isis so that it wouldnt hurt their reelection narrative . The stunning charge coming from president obamas former military intelligence chief. And for the first time, we are hearing directly from the officers involved in the shooting death of 12yearold tamir rice. Why their version of events may not match up with the investigation. This is claira. To prove to you that aleve is the better choice for her shes agreed to give it up. Thats today . Well be with her all day to see how it goes. After the deliveries, i was ok. Now the ciabatta is done and the pain is starting again. More pills . Seriously . Seriously. All these stops to take more pills can be a pain. Can i get my aleve back . For my pain, i want my aleve. Get all day minor arthritis pain relief with an easy open cap. This is cnn breaking news. Breaking news just in. A jury has been selected in the trial of the Baltimore Police officer, William Porter. He is one of, youll remember, six officers that are charged in the april death of freddie gray. Besides the 12 jurors, 4 alternates have also been selected. This is very significant. There has been protests every day that they have been meeting in the courtroom. This has been the third day, day three of the meeting to select this jury. Joining me now to discuss this is laura cook, shes a former assistant u. S. Attorney for the district of columbia. This has been, you know, three days, a whole lot of scrutiny. Everyones eyes on this process. What do you make of it . Well, its a very quick turnaround for jury selection in a case of this stature. But you know, im not surprised they were able to find a jury pool in baltimore because what people were trying to figure out was, was the universal knowledge of the settlement and of this case, based on the National Media attention, going to be enough to allow all these jurors not to be able to be unbiased . And we find here that they actually have an impartial jury who may, in fact, be able to receive the evidence as it comes in with an objective mind. And so this is going to be just the very bee agaginning. This case will be the litmus test for all Police Excessive force cases go forward. And the William Porter case, in particular, will be very, very key for the prosecution Going Forward on the remaining five trials. William porter, as you know, is one of six officers charged. And he is likely to become a key witness against the other officers in this case following this trial. You mentioned it, the big question has been can they find an impartial jury . I mean, i think thats going to be regardless, thats going to linger. Thats going to be a lingering question throughout this, yes . Oh, absolutely. I mean, this is a case where people are saying, look, theres 6. 4 million settlement that has to be paid from the Baltimore City taxpayers who also make up the baltimore jury pool. And every single one of those jurors was aware of the facts in this case as it was reported. And every single one of those jurors was subject to the curfew and forced by the mayor following the baltimore riots. Its very hard to find a jury pool who would have no information on this case. However, moving it outside of baltimore would likely not have alleviated or cured that particular knowledge because this is a case, kate, as you know, that everybody in the country is watching. Its such a grasping and thoughtprovoking case to figure out whats going to happen and how will it be dealt with . Its like they couldnt have found an impartial jury who had any less knowledge they did anywhere across the country. And to put an even finer point on it every day that theyve been in there, those in the courtroom have said that you could hear the protests outside the courtroom from inside. So the jury not only, these jurors, they not only, as you said, were impacted because of all of the riots surrounding and the curfews surrounding the freddie gray death, but also theyre hearing how much pressure and how heated this whole thing is right outside the courtroom. Kate, youre so right. And this is an instance when although we had anonymity, right . Every one of these jurors will use their anonymous jury number. They wont give their actual fame, but come on. We live in a very wideopen information society. Each of these jurors who were selected are very well aware that their anonymity may be a fleeting fleeting expectation for themselves. And even more so, you can only imagine what the backlash will be if there is an unfavorable verdict to the Baltimore City residents. They will have to have some accountability. And thats a very daunting prospect for any juror. Not only do most people want to go to jury duty because it can be boring for them, but now you have the added risk of having your anonymity compromised and having to be accountable for whatever your verdict ultimately becomes based on what theyre seeing. And remember, kate, no one is allowed inside of the courtroom for media coverage. Everyone has to come out of the courtroom to report. So those jurors are in a very unique situation where they alone are going to have all of the information that the publics not going to be able to see, but theyll be judged to a much different standard than most jurors. And this is a very first, yet very important first step in a very long process, not only in this trial, but as you said, this is going to kind of set the stage for the five other for the other trials of all the other officers that were involved that will be here. Just to reiterate the news for our viewers, they have 12 jurors. They have been selected in the trial of the first officer, the first Baltimore Police officer, whos going to be facing trial, officer William Porter. Laura, thank you so much. Well talk to you a little bit later in the show. Thank you so much for jumping on with us. Well get back to that breaking news in just a moment. First to other big news that we learned this morning. A stunning charge coming from one of president obamas former top military officials. Lieutenant general Michael Flynn, former director of the Defense Intelligence agency, telling cnns jake tapper that isis is not contained and also saying that the white house ignored reports on the rise of the terror group back in 2011 and 12 because it did not fit the administrations reelection narrative. Listen here. I think that they did not meet a particular narrative that the