Again kasich makes it into the top ten. We could get several more National Polls between now and when fox news is going to make their debate decision. Tom foreman has more on all of that. He joins us now. Tom . Hi andersen. I can guarantee you everybody in washington is looking at this tonight. 10 of 17 candidates get to be in the race. Fox has not told us which polls they will rely on. We have taken this new poll from fox that you just mentioned. We folded it into our National Average of polls, the cnn poll of polls. We can say with pretty good probability here who will be on the stage. And yes, right up top, donald trump. Jeb bush. Scott walker. Double digits. Theyre all in. The next level down. You get ted cruz at 7 . You get ben carson. 6 . Mike huckabee, 6 . Last group of in here rand paul 5 . Marco rubio. 5 . John kasich 4 . Chris christie squekz in at 3 . Based on the average of National Polls. This is likely the lineup. Now for a while, it did look like rick perry might be able to squeeze in there, but these latest numbers tonight, bump him down to the bottom group here. The people who in all likelihood, anderson will not be on stage unless we have some big surprise in the next few hours. Tom, fox has said that there is going to be a second debate on the same night for all candidates who dont make it into the main debate which will give them a chance of basically trying to claw their way on to the main stage in future debates. Yeah thats what the folks are going to hope for. Theyre going to look at everybody on the main stage. And hope that somebody stumbles somehow and in doing so opens up a slot for them. There is a begig caveat here. 2 3 of the people on stage statistically are already long shots. You can argue who they are. If you look at history, by this time in the race the person who will be the partys eventual nominee is traditionally already polling in the double digits. That doesnt necessarily say thats what will happen this time. But what happened in the past. Thats why at the top, anderson everybody in washington is going over these numbers tonight. No doubt. Tom, thanks very much. Given that kind of pressure to make the cut. Candidates have been doing almost anything for an edge. Governor kasich chose to enter the race a couple weeks before the debate to take advantage of the polling bump most new candidates enjoy. Others are dishing up red meat thats not a figure of speech. Ted cruz frying bacon on a gun barrel. Rand paul as you know made a video taking a chain saw to the federal tax code. Lindsey graham torched his cell phone and other things. Donald trump has planes and chopper. As for how long his lead may last and how challengers may have to rethink their campaigns. Former Reagan White House director, and cnn political commentator anna navaro jeb bush supporter and fred of maushgo rubio. And donna brazil. Two polls today putting donald trump at 26 . Way ahead of the others. As you know a lot of people say ignore donald trump at the debate. How can the other candidates ignore the guy with 26 support . You know anderson. At this point, poll after poll after poll after poll. Show some variation. He is ahead, by a lot. Or at least a regional sized margin. Which says these things are not outliers. These are measuring real sentiment out there. I think now the candidates are beginning to take him seriously. I think governor bush has come around on that. Interestingly, i found something today that Rupert Murdoch who sent something out the other day that the other week he should stop embarrassing his friends and the country. Suddenly said today we need to be paying attention to what is happening here. There is something in these numbers. Anna what about that. There are those who said all along, this is in large part because donald trump is a celebrity. Huge name recognition to. Be fair jeb bush who you are supporting certainly has high name recognition. Yeah i dont think he is a celebrity to the same level. I dont think the name id is to the same level. I think jeb has high name id when it comes to his last name. People are just getting to know jeb bush the person the governor and his record. Look i think most definitely at this point, it is necessary to take trump seriously. And if not trump, certainly his message. And the message that voters Republican Voters and the people responding on these polls are sending. By supporting him. What is that message . They are fed up with washington. Theyre fed up with the dysfunction. Theyre fed up with things not getting solved. Not getting adressed. Theyre angry. Theyre frustrated. And they have had enough of it. And he is channelling that. I think anybody on that stage, anybody running on either side is is should frankly heed that message. Donna, i know you have talked about it. Enjoying every news story about donald trump, getting popcorn, watching it every single night waiting to see what he will say. But might it be a case of, be careful what you wish for. If trump has a great night at the debates thursday. He is measured. Substantive, or however, a great night, whatever great night means for him and for his supporters, wont you, will you have to take him more seriously. Isnt it possible you could be facing a, a very strong candidate . Look im not laughing at donald trump. Im laughing at the process that were undergoing to determine who should sit at the table so to speak. Thats the gift. That donald trump has taken ahold of this process. And he is really done himself well. If you look at the polls, his favorability continues to go up. I dont think it any just washington. The fact is that he is campaigning as a nonpolitician. The person who will get up and say what he believes. To be true. Even if we dont have the substance behind the sound bites. I think people are responding to someone who is just basically calling it as he sees it. Well donna, then you look at the democrats. Can anybody say that about Hillary Clinton . You know she is not campaigning like donald trump. She is not going out there and calling people idiots are going to the border and saying mexico should pay for this and not have a plan. Look, she is campaigning with substance. Criminal justice reforeign minister plan. Immigration plan. Her Climate Change plan. Look when you are a democrat you often campaign with plans and programs. When you are a republican, sound bites work. Tomorrow night it will be interesting, im sorry, later this week it will be interesting to see if mr. Trump is there any substance behind some of the thing hes maz been saying. Jeffrey, what about that . Do you think the democrats have a problem here if donald trump is doing well because people say he is antiwashington telling it like he is. Do you see anybody on the democratic side who can compete with that . I think to be candid. I think Hillary Clinton has the same problem some of the republicans have. Seen as a approximately tigs first. And thats part of her problem. Thats part of the problem some of the republicans have. Anna a story in the new york times, that jeb bush and his team like the trump surge. If and when trump implodes. Bush will emerge as the best option. Everyone else will have been drowned out by donald trump. Donald trump says thats false. And that bush is miserable. What do you have to say . You know i dont know. I dont know i see him out on the campaign trail being frankly joyful. Something he set out to do. He wanted to be a positive campaigner, a happy warrior for the cause. What i do think is its hard to argue that trump is not hurting a lot of the candidates on the right lane of the republican party. If you see bobby jindal marco rubios numbers, rand pauls numbers. Frankly donald trump has taken the air out of the tires. Let me tell you something, i want to tell you something, to my friend donna. Yeah you know the trump phenomena has been very entertaining on the republican side. Lets see what comes of it. But girl i am going to be popping some popcorn when joe biden gets into the race. Time for me to come on to the air with my bag of skinny girl popcorn. Whatever you need to enjoy this process, as far as im concerned as long as it is legal. Enjoy yourself. Heres the one thing. Depend on what state you are in whats legal . True. I live in d. C. Done na we are doing a lot more of this later in the show. You are well sourced within the Democratic Party. I would be remiss if i didnt ask you about whether you think Vice President biden will jump into the race . You know i think he is still deciding. The Vice President has a lot of good will he is a natural leader, a beloved figure. He decided he by the end of the summer. He has done a terrific job as Vice President. There is a lane open for him. If if. Donna, you know when this plays out. When does he have to decide . End of summer. Is that the cutoff date . Yes, no question. Two things. The largest number of delegates will be eating at the end of this month in minneapolis. Democratic national committee. And then end of october, theyre there are filing deadlines. It costs a lot to Fly Air Force two to political events. Thank you. Thank you. Just ahead tonight. Well dig deeper on what we mentioned. The joe biden factor and huh he scud could shake up the race. And how Hillary Clinton will answer. The breaking news in a Police Shooting of africanamerican man, samuel duboze the officer charged with murder. Part of the stop involved a liquor bottle that mr. Duboze said did not contain liquor. Tonight we know the answer out what was really inside. S. Start shopping online. From a list of top rated providers. Visit angieslist. Com today. 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But the more you learn about your coverage, the more gaps you might find. Like how you thought you were covered for all this. When youre really only covered for this. Hot dog . Or how you may think youre covered for this. But not for this. Whoa no, no, oh , oh . Or this. Or this. Or that. Talk to farmers and see what gaps could be hiding in your coverage. My heaven we are farmers bum pa dum. Bum bum bum bum donald trump beating all contenders in the polls by a lot. Mentioned surprise two before the break the possibility of a big name democratic challenge uh to Hillary Clinton, namely Vice President joe biden. Mr. Biden is weighing a run. To date informal Draft Biden Movement got a boost. Reporter looking for a job, but the question for joe biden is which one . He is long eyed the presidency and is still considering joining the 2016 race. The summertime speculation has suddenly hit full boil. Over whether hell challenge Hillary Clinton for the democratic nomination. One factor weighing heavy. His son beau biden urged his father to run before dying of brain cancer in may. And now, one of beau bidens close advisers is joining a Grassroots Movement called draft biden. And the Vice President is Holding Political meetings of his own with his old network of supporters to see if there is interest in backing a new campaign. Questions about clintons candidacy hang over the biden boom. A recent poll showed 37 viewed clinton as honest and trust worthy. While 57 did not. For biden it was the reverse. 58 found him honest and trust worthy. 34 did not. New hampshire democrat mary foley is but begging biden to run. Hillary clinton has a problem with trust in the country now. And i do believe if and when he decides to run, joe will add a new dimension to this race. Biden has run for president twice before. He has never ruled out a third time. If he did, the gaffes would follow him into the race. Like this famous expletive. [ bleep ]. He told Gloria Borger last year he would make his own decision. Will you run if she runs . Absolutely. Thats not the reason not to run or to run. The question is am i convinced i am best positioned of anyone else to lead the country. Reporter but clinton has a big head start. She is airing her first tv commercials tomorrow. I believe that when families are Strong America is strong. Its your time. Jeff joins me now. The first tv ad airing tomorrow. Just a coincidence this is all happening biden news is bubbling over right . Anderson the ad were filmed two months ago aides tell me. Theyre not in direct response to the flurry of speculation about the Vice President. But like most things in politics they also arent entirely unrelated. This whole biden discussion might not be happening at all if some democrats didnt perceive an opening and vulnerabilities for clinton. Now these ads, 2 million, in iowa and New Hampshire, are designed to soften her image and remind voters of why she is running for president. Anderson. Jeff thank you very much. Want to bring in cnn commentator, dan pfifer former Campaign Manager for Hillary Clinton patty doyle, former Democratic Party chairman dick harpertuli. Do you want to see joe biden get in the race . I think, joe biden would be a formidable candidate. I think he is a sitting Vice President. He has been the Vice President in the room with barack obama when the tough decisions get made. He has incredible relationships with congress on both sides of the aisle. He is incredibly relatable and likable. In this particular climate, in 2016 where tell it like it is candidates are prevailing, i think what was once a negative for him, his tendency for gaffes can be a real positive this time around. Do you think he will get in the race . You know that is a really personal decision. I cant even imagine nor will i presume to speculate about how the death of his son is impacting that decision. What steve rashetti, his chief of staff has to answer questions. Can he raise the money . Can he recruit the staff needed as a political talent . Can he set up an organization in the early states . And if the answers to those questions are yes, then you know, why not . Dan, you obviously read the maureen dowd column that gave focus to the conversation, beau biden wanted his president to run for president. Do you think that will factor into the Vice President s decision . Like i said. I think that is a very personal decision. Hesitant to imagine what the Vice President has been going through or how that can affect the decision. Look i dont know if he will run. I think i will be surprised if he did. He has more than earned the right to run. If he did he would be a formidable candidate. Why surprised . It is awfully late in the game. I think Hillary Clinton would have an advantage in large part. Had months to be organized in the early states raising money. Supporters. If there is any candidate that could get in and have a shot the Vice President would be the only one. You are a staunch biden supporter. You think he should run against clinton. You are not concerned about the number of supporters she has locked up to dans point . No. There are a couple things going on. Josh alcom beau bidens chief of staff, announced yesterday. Talked to him this morning. Going with the Draft Biden Movement. Calling, soliciting supporters and soliciting money. I made a commitment today to a substantial contribution to the draft biden effort. So there is an effort going on. I do think joe biden ought to run if he can put, look the loss of him, he lost two children, the loss of this child, this recently, is something he has got to decide whether he can put that aside and run for president. I mean he has a very been through a very very traumatic process and period. So that is a decision he a personal decision he has to make. If he makes that decision i believe heave will be the next president of the united states. Is it that you support biden so much . Or you dont believe Hillary Clinton can win . Or would be a good president . Well i think there is a combination of both. I think Hillary Clinton, you know i supported barack obama over her in 07, 08. I dont think she is a very good candidate. I dont think she has that relatability factor that patty talked a moment ago. We see in her delivery. She checks off the points. But i am getting calls from people all over the state or committed said they will support hillary but switch tomorrow if joe got in the race. Simply because joe inspires them. Joe magnetizes them. He has that charisma. He has got that connectivity that she does not have. So i dont think she can win in november of 016. I think joe biden can. Patty, what do you make about that . Are you concerned. The controversy over Hillary Clintons emails, you know the criticisms of her on the campaign trail, her unfavor unfavorability ratings have gotten worse. Are those warning signs to you . I disagree. Hillary clinton would make a fantastic president. And i think she is very charismatic.