Assessment sounds right to you or a little bit much you will want to watch tonight as we explore the isis threat. The isis threat grew out of Osama Bin Ladens threat. Their cruelty was too much for them as they were led di al zarqawi. A few months later, they were rebranded as the Islamic State in iraq a and in 2011 the group names Abu Bakr Baghdadi as the leader. His ambition spread beyond iraq to the chaos of syria, and al baghdadi changes the name again this time calling it the Islamic State in iraq and syria and takes the first syrian city the and the black flag is now hanging in the eastern city of raqqa which is a strong thehold for the growing city. We are going to be successful there. President obama is asked about the threat in an interview in the new yorker in january of 2007 and he compares it to the junior anniversary ti team. And he says it is a as if the j. V. Team puts on the lakers uniform, it does not make them kobe bryant. And then isis launches a massive offensive capturing large swathes of land in iraq and ta takrit. And time and again, they rare seen running away by the tall ban as they flee in terror as the fighters approach. In a rare public message al baghdadi proclaims the new the ter roirritory as a caliphate with him as the head. Isis is the most Prolific Group with recruitment with estimated 20,000 fighters joining their ranks. Then in 2011 president obama showing videos of their attacks. And then isis releases a beheading of a american journalist. Our mission is clear to destroy isis. And the vision of an Islamic State and apocalyptic battle p between these fighters who are inspiring attacks in countries outside of the battle zone. A lot to look at in the hour ahead, and joining us is Fareed Zakaria host of Fareed Zakaria gps and Michael Weiss from the daily beast and kareem barun is a book of fighting fundamentalist isis. And graeme you say that this sis a perversion of islam and you say it is a very primitive look. Yes, they look at the islamic text of the koran and the hadith, and they have a literal interpretation of the text. And they are literal. Yes, very extreme of the interpretation, and they do care about the texts, and they do have a collection of the scholars and not widely known scholars but people who look at the texts, and look at what happens because of the text. But people who are joining, they are not islamic scholars but people in street gangs. And yes, graemes articles tell us who the true believers believe. And why is this catching on. And islamic ideology has been around for centuries, but why is that catching on now . It seems two layers that are at operation. One is that a lot of the people feel dispossessed andssessed and the stagnant economies economies, and the middle east has 85 dictatorship, and by far the highest percentage in the world. And add to that something that the microstudies of the terrorists show even the isis rekrutment young men looking for adventure, and a cause larger than themselves and looking for adrenaline highs, and you put it together, and that seems to me that it is the recruiting tool. And the overlords have a grander vision, but the foot lords are coming in for a different version. And the man, socalled jihadi john from a relatively welloff family, and attended a Prestigious University and you cant make the argument that he was dispossessed. Well, it is not and if i may, it is not about be being poor. There are young people who are often feeling that they rare in proe test of the war. When i grew up in india, that were a number of marxist radicals, and so some of them were poor and rich and educated, with but they believed that the world order was something that they wanted to oppose and fight it. So it is the latest iter ration of this . Yes, it is the off of the shelf ideology for muslims right now. And there is a political element, too the, because isis is presenting themselves as the safeguards of the the sunni islam. And look at the region we toppled saddam and no coincidence that the Upper Echelon is baath party members, and not known for scholars. And in some cases went from the h military fatigues of drinking wine and smoking cigars, and now from the beards and the banner. And look the last four years, bashar al assad, he had a serious propaganda goal to create the element of extreme element within syria, and if you look at what they were doing to sunnis, abasing them and makeing them commit sack relidge, it is the goal to commit extreme there. And it was to commit the arresting of children. Yes, and the fighters were saying that we were drawn to the fight because we didnt want to see our comembers treated this way. And they are at the forefront of brutality in the region, and it is the hypocrisy that we have to go after. Yes, and they dont believe, and a lot of people dont Pay Attention to the sunni shia divide. And it is hugely important. And the point that michael is makeing is so important, because we have to remember that al qaeda began as a grand global ideology and then picked grand goals to attack the america, and the grand saudi family. And so there was a narrow goal to dispossess the sunnis in iraq and in iraq they felt by sunni and in damascus the allowite and so it was a sectarian thing, and then they established the caliphate, and graemes article does a great thing to make you realize that and then the goals were grander, and now they were at tracking people, but at heart, there is a sunni revolt dwapst the shia rule. And again, it to your point that a lot of the people in the west dont Pay Attention to the sunni and the shia divide and dont understand the difference, but it is essential, because isis does not view people from the, you know, the, that are not part and they dont view shias as legitimate. No, they are the rejectionists, and if you see what al zarqawi a decade ago, the people most threatening to the project were the shia. And above christians and everybody else. Yes, above the american, because he said that i will bleed the americans until they lead and then when they leave, i will face the shias, and so the strategy is to kill them the, and he fundamentally hated them. When he met Osama Bin Laden and one thing to offend them is to go on and on about them, because Osama Bin Ladens mother was shia, and so their retaliation against the sunnis will drive them further into the fold and by the way, this strategy is playing out to today. And this is the important issue is are the goals truly global or local . Because in essence or at the core they seem to have local goals, but that i have layered on the e global one, and a lot of the foreign fighters come for the global goal and they dont come because they want to save syria, but they are coming, because of the grand global crusade. And so whether or not the goals are global, the impact is global, and looking at africa, and nigeria and libya, you are seeing the groups signing up with isis, and in kazakhstan there are young people indoctrine nateing to them. And one of the thing thass that you wrote about is the caliphate which is central to isis which is not central to Osama Bin Laden and he did not believe that the conditions were right for the caliphate, and so isis while the territory is the goals, and the layering of the international goal, it is service in ultimately the building of the cat to the caliphate. Yes, and when it was operating, it is a cellular underground model, and trying to fly planes into buildings in new york city but the caliphate, they were trying to draw the people in, and get them there to have the caliphate strengthened in situ and the outer boundaries. And for those who are at the boundaries, there are 200 million shia muslims around the world all of whom the isis believes could be killed, because they are all, the incorrect believers. And they are all heretics. They win because of the demographic, and the end game, as graeme pointed out, for zawahiri how do you take iraq if you are outnumbered . Simply the mujahadine will overwhelm them and easier when the americans leave. So it is a apocalyptic struggle. So it is being out in baghdad and damascus. Sglt and the end game as you wrote, it is really armageddon, and the end result is the end times which they believe is near. Yes and they have a end game which bin laden in a way had now, and apocalyptic belief is not uncommon in many religions, but what is distinct to isis relative to bin ladens view is that the apocalyptic end game is go g going to happen in a number of years and matter of years. And they believe that jesus plays a role. Yes, particular battles in particular places, and ultimately coming down the jerusalem where jesus will return to save the remaining 5,000 fighters of the Islamic State. And jesus will save the isis . Yes, defeat ap tie antimessiah figure. And yes, while that is the end game the temporal goals are important, too, and if you read the magazine of theirs what they are focusing on is the caliphate, and the governance and taking the power and how the exercise the power. And it is quite clear that the el goals are often trumping the socalled religious ones. So they are going to the museum in iraq, and destroy to a few of the statues to show how islamic they are, and pure islam, you dont have any idol worship, but quietly, they are selling most of the others and they take the hostage hostages, but they want money for them, to make money. And yes, there is a lot more that we have to get to, and lot more talk including the rerecruitment. And another major offensive to take back the city of takrit, and how to defeat isis, and what that would mean, and if the kun kun people in the countries in the region can do it, and what role the United States should play, if any. With my android from tracfone, i can. Order safety goggles. Play music for seedlings. Post science fair projects. Schedule guinea pig feedings. Video chemical reactions. Take pics of mr. Bones. Time the next launch. Calm down principal jones. I can do all that with my android from tracfone. 90day plans start as low as 20. For a limited time get the Samsung Galaxy centura with the spongebob movie kids watch and exclusive case cover. Look for specially marked packages at walmart. Tracfone. Do everything for less. The real question that needs to be asked is what is it that we can do that is impactful . What the cloud enables is computing to empower cancer researchers. It used to take two weeks to sequence and analyze a genome; with the microsoft cloud we can analyze 100 per day. Whatever i can do to help compute a cure for cancer, thats what id like to do. My lenses have a sunset mode. And an Early Morning mode. And a partly sunny mode. And an outside. To clear inside mode. Transitions® signature™ adaptive lenses. Are more responsive than ever. So why settle for a lens with just one mode . Experience life well lit®. Upgrade your lenses to transitions® signature™. Visit your local visionworks today. To ask about transitions® signature™ lenses with chromea7™ technology. And start living a life well lit®. The results of our online twitter poll, should the United States lied the fight against isis. 52 tweeting no, 48 tweeting yes. There were 52 saying no and 48 saying yes. This map e showing you to the areas in kobani and mosul takrit. Today launched a major offensive aimed at taking back the city of tikrit. And whether on the ground or in the air, American Forces are in the thick of it. Back with Fareed Zakaria and joining in two individuals with experience mark hurtling and bob baer. In terms of the military situation, you dont think isis is as impressive as their early gains. I think what really stunned people and the reason that obama almost had to apologize for his jv team comment was that they took mosul and the second largest city in iraq. The gains werent so much due to isiss strength but iraqs weakness. The sunnis who comprise the foot soldiers in iraqs army refused to fight, because they regarded certainly, the government in baghdad, the Iraqi Government, as a shiite dick tatatorship, and between the two, they preferred isis. So they melted away, because they did not want to fight isis, and so it was that political problem that gave isis this huge military victory. But general, you were there and involved with iraqi forces. Since the u. S. Pulled out, essentially, you had fake battalions, phantom platoons that existed on paper in the iraqi army, but the money that was supposedly paid to them went to the generals in the iraqi army. Correct. And i agree with fareed. This is an army that could fight. When we were there, they could fight. Ive fought with them. But during that threeyear period between the time oust forces left, mr. Maliki took over, we saw some early indications of that even when i was there. When we conducted operations in mosul, mr. Maliki was beginning to replace his generals. And we were seeing the kinds of people he was replacing them with. Cronies. Cronies. No military experience, and being paid for positions that they just didnt know how to lead. And the soldiers can feel that. If you go into the situation where you are not paid and the people are threatening you shgs, and you have no leadership, you are going to be quitting your job, too, and especially if someone comes in to cut your head off. Especially if your general has taken off. And leaves just lowlevel troops. Six months later, with renewed American Interest in retraining the iraqi forces, theres going to be, why are they going to be able to take tikrit . Why would they take mosul . There is more of a threat. I think they see an internal threat to their nationalism. And they are beginning to see that the government in baghdad is now very interested in them. Were seeing unni tribes. That never happened when i was there with mr. Maliki. But we were talking about this sunni shia divide. And that plays into this as well, not just the makeup of the military, but you have the shia militias backed by iran which have made many of the advances that have taken place over the past couple months. Anderson, its worse than that. Its come out that head of the kutz force. Elite iranian forces. This is the same group that blew up the marines in 83, kidnapped one of my bosses in beirut, is really a bad guy, is in tikrit today, sort of managing the assault on the city. So what message does that send . Exactly, saying look, this iran is essentially, has its proxies on the ground, and the sunnis are going to say, were going to defend tikrit, and anbar province. And this is the shia sunni divide you were talking about, which is worsening by the day. If youre a sunni sitting in tikrit, and you suddenly see the iranian force, and you see this death squad coming in you are suspect. But i would contend that the shia sunni divide is not what were all making it. In that area of the country, in the north, there have been kurds, shias, sunnis, living together under Saddam Hussein for a very long time. It is not that much it would be the equivalent of saying your politics are different, your religion are different, but they now see a threat. And even though the iranians are now contributing to the fighting of isis there might be some contention and the sunni tribal members might be coming in and the quds forces and it contributing to the good. Lets see if this works out. I think youre right that thats the plan and the Iraqi Government has made some good steps. They are going to retake mosul as we understand it. There are about 2,000 isil fighters there. The iraqis are going to put somewhere in the range of 20,000 troops up against them. Kurdish peshmerga, and a small number of american advisers, but they will have american drones, american air support, and the idea is to launch a genuinely iraqi response. Not iranian and if that works, you know nothing succeeds like success in military affairs. Can we take a look at takrit and you tell us why it is so important here. Well shgs, it gets to what fareed is saying. Everyone is focusing on the retaking of mosul, and the critical ti of takeity of taking a waiway the land of isis. Because thats what they desire. Thats part of the caliphate, but were going to see buildup. Weve seen it already in samarra. A critically important shia city with a lot of sunnis there. Not too far from baghdad. About halfway distant between tikrit and baghdad. After the Iraqi Forces Take tikrit, the question is going to be, will they then take these others and go toward kirkuk . And i think they will. Or will they continue to open up the supply lines to mosul. So they can have a direct link from baghdad to mosul. You cant go directly into mosul, because there has to be a Campaign Plan from baghdad to mosul with all of the places in between. The critical piece is when they turn to kirkuk. Right between kirkuk and the other dot in the middle is a small town. That seems to be the coming, the operational capital of isis. They have moved some forces forward there. It was already a problematic area. It was a bad area when we were there. And what youll see is continual action to drive isis out of territory, the retaking of ground. The key will be, will the locals agree. Thats the tribal groups. The bathi officers, and theyre watching. Why the u. S. Towards the end was able to reverse a lot of the gains al qaeda had made is because of disenchantment by these tribal groups and payments made to the tribal groups. That was the Sunni Awakening or the tribal awakening. Are we seeing any evidence that this disenchantment anderson, we are are talking to the sunni tribal groups approved by the al baddi government. The sunnis have to show abeyance to the shia government, and theyre discredited. And we do not know what theyre going to do when the army comes in. If they move in with the Popular Militia militias the death cults, i think that it is going to be worse. Can i complicate this picture even further . What were looking at is a difficult but doable military strategy. But this is iraq. Syria is much more complicated, because you have literally