take a look at those numbers on your leaderboard. it's just absolutely miraculous. the closest iowa caucus vote in history. the top four, mitt romney, santorum, ron paul and newt gingrich. >> and it didn't become official until about 2:30 eastern time this morning if you were watching. so we have romney congratulating santorum. and he says that he and santorum are actually both winners. and both candidates are looking forward now to new hampshire, they say. >> but what's great about this is the story that comes out of such an incredibly close finish because you know what? it's about momentum. and it's about money. and it's about headlines. and those headlines tonight are bizarro. christine romans, you've been breaking down these headlines. we've been on the edge of our seats because we wasn't sure what the big story was going to be, and the big story is the story itself. the squeaker. >> the santorum surge that continued and also what voters were thinking. we have a better idea because of entrance polling. a lot of different questions they were asked on their way in to cast their vote. and one of the questions was asked was what's the most important quality for a candidate? you can see they said experience, a strong moral character. they were looking for a true conservative, these iowa republicans. and they were also looking for someone who could defeat obama. 31% said they were looking for someone that could defeat obama. so who are these voters who were voting for somebody because it was the most important candidate who could defeat obama? let's take a look. isn't this great, these little toys, you guys? the most important quality, could defeat obama. that went to romney, 48%. and newt gingrich who didn't fare overall, wasn't in the top three, of course, but 20% of the people voting for the most important quality, defeating the president, they cast their vote for gingrich. 13%, santorum, paul and perry. we have a lot of entrance polling. we can tell you we have a very good idea of what iowa vote rz were thinking and doing in those caucus sites. we'll be able to analyze it throughout the morning. >> nice work. boy, you've got your morning cut out for you. >> we're really looking forward to it. it's fun to use those and to understand what people were thinking. >> i'm no john king, but i'll do my best. >> you are so much prettier. >> i'm just going to go on record. you are way hotter. >> let's go first to our radio reporter live in des moines, iowa. you're going to tell us how people voted. what actually happened? this was a nail-biter till 2:30 in the morning. was it one precinct we were waiting for? >> reporter: how about that? there was one precinct we were waiting for. it was in clinton county, iowa. that's in the east. clinton county is most famous for at one point having the largeest sawmill in the world, setting a record with their fire response team. what seems to have happened, why this took so long is there was that one precinct with results that apparently the state he headquarters didn't tabulate. i spoke to the now famous edith pfeffer. she said we turned in those results around 7:40, 7:50. the problem seems to be that there were some tab lating issues here in des moines with the state headquarters. i guess they didn't realize that they didn't have those numbers. and this might happen a lot in elections. usually it all gets squared away the next day. but of course, here we were with an election resting on just a handful of votes. so every single precinct mattered. and when they discovered they were missing a couple, we had to wait and track down each one. also, and you can see and you're hearing video from, of course, all of the various candidate parties. it was so interesting because here were these ballrooms full of supporters all night waiting to see their candidates, and the candidates weren't sure what to say. especially santorum and romney. they finally came out when it was clear that this was virtually a tie. back to you. >> lisa, thank you very much for that. so, of course, this would be a critical time to chop it up, figure out what exactly happened. it is a photo finish, but there's a bigger story to it. we've got a couple of fantastic analysts. i figure mark preston probably hasn't slept in eight months. >> nine. nine more months. >> yeah, don't get too comfy, i suppose. john avlon. and rubin navarette in san diego, california. photo finish. i have two ideas going on in my very small braun. it's the story of ouch for newt ging and out for the bottom three. is that so off the mark? >> out for gingrich, but we knew that was going to happen. we saw him drop in the polls. then negative advertising took him down. michele bachmann tonight, though, didn't say she was going to get out. i was prepared to send out a tweet that said michele bachmann has said that she will leave. i had to pull it back down even before i hit send because she then said she was going to stay in the race. a short time after that rick perry, texas governor, said he's going to go back home and reassess his campaign. >> did you tweet that one? >> i did. it wasn't as dramatic. how can he get back in the race? >> and how can michele drop out in her home state, right? that's kind of tough to stay i'm going to call it quits here. >> certainly in politics, and john can speak to this a little bit, too, there's something to be said about waiting until tomorrow, getting the call from romney or santorum, perhaps gingrich asking for her support and then having her own concession speech her own night. tonight was not her night. >> concession speeches are usually nice and conciliatory. i think we've all been seeing flashes of newt gingrich we've all been talking about. he got a little bit persnickety. i don't know if we have that ready to go, but if we do, i want to play a little about what gingrich was saying. he's taking a pot shot at not only the president, which we all expect, but also at the other cann candidates. does this mean the end of mr. nice guy? >> it has to if he wants to stay in the race. the fact of the matter is, he never defended himself over the past couple weeks. we saw millions of dollars in television ads that went after his character. it assassinated him down. at this point if he wants to stay in, he has to appear like a fighter. his statesmanship helped get him to this point. remember back in june, his campaign was over. he decided to be the statesman. he was on the 12-plus nationally televised debates because of the way he came across and said he was united for the republican party, that helped him get where he was by the middle of december. however, the television advertising took him out. if he wants to be viable again, he'd better go after romney and santorum. >> if we could bring john avlon in. romney eked by. is this really a victory? john, what does this really mean? >> it's a really great and important question because people are using the phrase "virtual tie." let's put this in larger context. romney won by eight votes. romney actually got six votes less than he got four years ago in iowa. he's still the only man -- yeah, and millions of dollars. he outspent, if you add the associated pac, he outspent santorum. the establishment favorite. "the des moines register" endorsement. to beat santorum who hadn't really been on the map by eight months is almost a moral victory for rick santorum. when you compare it to his 2008 totals, not only did he lose ground on the map, romney didn't win them this year. he did well in the cities especially des moines. what's extraordinary is his vote total is less than it was four years ago. now, he's going into new hampshire. new hampshire is near hometown territory for romney. it's not going to be nearly as friendly for santorum. that 75% of the republican field that wants someone other than romney, that still exists. assuming rick perry gets out, it will be interesting how that vote coalesces. michele bachmann, she didn't get out last night, but she got only around 1,000 votes more than she got in the ames, iowa, straw poll back in august which is an extraordinary stat when you think about it. >> i want to hear from mitt romney. i know you've sort of been calling him -- john, mr. 25%. can't cut through that glass ceiling. what's going to happen with the splinter eed candidate group. it seemed to play through to his speech last night which essentially was, it's all about me taking on you, mr. president. it's all about i'm going after obama and not my fellow candidates. have a listen to this. >> you were working and i am working and we're all working together because of our passion for this country and our concern that it's being led by a president who may be a nice guy but just is over his head. and i look at his campaign -- you know, four years ago tonight, he was giving a victory celebration speech. here in des moines. and he had been going across the state making all sorts of promises. the gap between his promises four years ago and his performance is as great as anything i've ever seen in my life. >> all right. so rubin navarette, is this going to continue to be the strategy for mr. romney as he moves to new hampshire which he pretty much has a lock on, i think the last number said 43% lead. is it going to be just keep on going, just eye on the prize? >> at least half of the time. the strategy you see is going after obama. if romney had his druthers, he would have liked to go after obama all through his campaign and not said a word about any of his opponents. he didn't have that luxury. he had to respond to perry and gingrich by name. he didn't like doing that. now he wants to go back to his playbook and make this pretty much about obama. the problem with that is when you are still locked in a primary, in this case with people nipping at your heels, you often don't have that luxury. you can ignore santorum or gingrich all you want, but i assure you when they get to new hampshire, they won't be ignoring romney. he really doesn't have that luxury because they're closing in tight. >> well, we're trying to figure out what the focus is on santorum here. he was talking to wolf earlier tonight. and he sounds really optimistic about moving forward in new hampshire. and a lot of people say this is the real winner. let's listen in. >> thank you so much, iowa. you -- you, by standing up and not compromising, by standing up and being bold and leading, leading with that burden and responsibility you have to be first, you have taken the first step of taking back this country. this journey started officially just a few months ago in june when i stood on the steps of the county courthouse in somerset county, pennsylvania. i decided to go there, not the typical place someone announces for president. that's not where i was born. that's not where i ever lived. but it's where my grandfather came. back in 1925. he came by himself even though he was married with two children, one of them being my father. he came after having fought in world war i because mussolini had been in power now three years, and he had figured out that fascism was something that would crush his spirit and his freedom and give his children something less than he wanted for them. >> sounds like the winner speech, not the concession speech. >> you know why? because as he was delivering this, he was ahead. so that's why it sounds that way. >> that's so funny. we've enjoyed being up all night, which is not something i would normally say, getting prepared for a program, but watching the cnn election center team come in with these numbers. look at the teeny itsy bitsy numbers in the middle. yes, 25%, 25%, but mitt romney by a hair. eight votes between 30,015 votes and santorum, 30,007 votes. by the way, if you think that that is a record, we've got news for you. little not. there is another record out there that even beats this one. we're going to talk about that and a whole lot more in just a moment right here from the cnn election center. daddy, come in the water! somebody didn't book with travelocity, with 24/7 customer support to help move them to the pool daddy promised! look at me, i'm swimming! somebody, get her a pony! [ female announcer ] the travelocity guarantee. from the price to the room to the trip you'll never roam alone. welcome back to "early start." we are at the cnn election center. have you been up with us all night? because it has been quite a nail-biter. eight votes actually separated these two men, mitt romney is declared the winner, 30,015 votes. rick santorum, 30,007. of course, they're both at 25%. santorum is being called the real winner here. our christine romans is working really hard for us this morning. >> you're the iowan. and if anybody knows iowa, it's you, my friend. there's a real breakdown on how people voted and we know this because we had entrance polls where we can ask people questions as they're walking in. why were they voting certain ways? >> look, we talked to people about what you're thinking and why you're casting this vote on the way in right before they did it. we asked them all of these questions. what kind of experience they were looking for? when did you decide to support? we're going to go through all of these throughout the day. the best experience for president. it's so interesting, working in government, that's santorum, working in business, that is mitt romney. i want to take a look at specifically how it breaks down if we take these over here. let's look at working in business. this was the romney strong suit. 36% of those said, look, romney is the guy because he can do it in a tough economy. rick santorum came in second. ron paul, perry, gingrich, bachmann and huntsman. and here you go, santorum gets it if you're somebody who's voting because it's your time in congress, actually, right? he hasn't been a politician for a very long time. that's how that breaks down. romney getting the vote from people looking for someone who's got business experience and that business experience is something that led the charge in iowa. it's also interesting when you look at the breakdown of income. people who had more money, the higher-income voters, we wanted for mitt romney. people who were the lower end of the pay scale went for ron paul. interesting because probably those are young people who don't have an income or have much less of an income and then people more in the middle, the lunch bucket republicans, a new kind of republican vote in the midwest, those votes went to santorum. >> i've got to be honest with you. i'm always confused about entrance polls because they're going in with an answer to our questions. and then they're being swayed by the delegates who -- and, you know, the captains telling them why they shouldn't do what they thought they were going to do. >> our political guru said yesterday there will be people who change their minds, but by the time you walk in, you're making your decision mostly before you walk in the door. and then there's the trying to be swayed and the like, but those are the best gauge we have of what people were thinking when they came in and they cast their vote in there. of course, there will be -- and that's why you always tread cautiously with exit and entrance polls because this will be a few variations of what people said they were going to do and then did. but in this case, these look pretty clear that santorum was given the benefit for having his government experience, and it was business experience for mitt romney. >> thank you, christine. >> sure. as we're looking at newt gingrich with 21%, he said he was going to play mr. nice guy, right? because he thought that would work in his favor. so we heard a really different guy last night. let's take a listen. >> well, one other great debate. and that is whether this party wants a reagan conservative who helped change washington in the 1980s with ronald reagan and helped change washington in the 1990s as speaker of the house, somebody who is into changing washington, or we want a massachusetts moderate who, in fact, will be pretty good at managing the decay but has given no evidence in his years of massachusetts of any ability to change the culture or change the political structure or change the government. let me be clear -- i think it's important given all the things that were done in this state over the last few weeks. we are not going to go out and run nasty ads, 30-second ads. but i do reserve the right to tell the truth. and if the truth seems negative, that may be more a comment on his record than it is on poli c politics. so this is going to be a debate that begins tomorrow morning in new hampshire and will go on for a few months. and i'm convinced that the republican party will pick an heir of reagan, a committed conservative and somebody with a track record of changing washington. >> ah, go figure. and i just happen to have mr. gingrich's ad in "the new hampshire union leader," which, by the way, endorsed him, which is a big deal for him. yet he's really trailing in the new hampshire polls. it just says, "the choice." and if this were in color, newt gingrich would be in color and mitt radio not. and that's always a dead giveaway that that's kind of your first strike at your opponent. and then it says only a bold reagan conservative can defeat president obama. trying to sound very presidential. lenny mcallester joining our panel from des moines, iowa, i want you to jump in as well. lenny, so i don't understand how you can be in politics since the late '70s and not have learned your lesson that negative ads work. and if you're going to let people just beat up on you, you are going to suffer massively. but yet i don't see him turning the tables yet. >> well, because newt gingrich has the reputation of being a nasty politician. he has a lot of enemies within the republican party and all this baggage that the democrats will use against him. he can't necessarily go negative immediately in a way to defend himself quite the same way romney did when he was sliding down the polls. newt has to be more nuanced with this. he has to take a long-term approach to rebuilding his image and attacking his opponents. so he still cannot just pretty much go full barrels blazing the way he'd like to go. and you'll see a little more moderation from him hopefully and not necessarily allow these candidates to get under his skin and debate which is his strong suit coming up this weekend. >> we also have eric erickson of redstate.com. nice to see you this morning as well. let's talk about electability a little here. because that's the key word that everybody's throwing around now. who actually can beat president obama? as we head into new hampshire, who do you think that is? would it be a gingrich, or would it be a romney? >> lord, i'm not sure that it would be any of them. i mean, when you look at it, the narrative that romney has had working in his favor the whole time is that he's the most electable. according to the entrance polls, he lost republican voters to rick santorum by a point. he's now spent six years campaigning for president, and he's gone from 23% of the polls to 23% in the polls. that doesn't sound like electability. newt gingrich is such a wild card, though. there are a lot of republicans who are scared he'll implode along the way. i would not be surprised if iowans say we hate all of them. someone come rescue us. >> you ready? >> don't do this. >> i know, at 4:24 in the morning eastern time. i know that we don't have any really reliable recent polls for south carolina, but gingrich has been doing so well in that state. and it is that whole evangelical group, that uber message that's been resonating well, and yet it is the governor of that state who has endorsed him and is wildly popular in that state. going into south carolina, do you expect -- because i expect we're goi