egyptian officers raid the -- they may have made some powerful enemies in the process. one group is chaired by madeleine albright. the other is chaired by john mccain. i'm wolf blitzer. i'm wolf blitzer. you're in "the situation room". -- captions by vitac -- www.vitac.com the clock is ticking. we're only five days away from the iowa caucuses. the focus has now turned to a certain degree, to rick santorum. an extraordinary surge in his poll. can rick santorum keep on climbing? joe johns has been following santorum in iowa on the campaign trial. joe, how did it go? >> well, wolf, good news and bad news for rick santorum. he's doing better in the polls. the bad news is he's the latest target on the campaign trial. what on earth took this guy so long to get traction in iowa any way? >> what's going on right now in iowa and i see it with the crowds getting bigger. i think they'd be bigger in any circumstance. people are focused. >> here's a guy who spent more time in the state than any other candidate. totally speaks the language of evangelicals and they've ignored him for months. now, suddenly, the lights and cals are all over the place. not what they wanted at first, but the only one left. the last one standing. >> it's a matter of compare and contrast. >> surging late is better than not at all, but it comes with its challenges. including attack ads. rick perry just drilled santorum for requesting a billion dollars in earmarks while he was in congress. >> which republican running for president voted for the bridge to nowhere earmark? susan from des moines. >> rick santorum. >> correct. >> santorum doesn't deny it. >> i did. earmarks, if you look in the constitution, earmarks are things in the per view of the constitution. i earmarked. jim demint earmarked. congressmen here in iowa earmarked, but what happened was abuse. >> the biggest committee is how he intended to compete with romney. the guy who behaves like he's got what he needs to go to november. >> i think we're doing pretty well right now. we're going to go to new hampshire after this. >> and he's bought ads in new hampshire, where he's been polling in the nether regions. he always loved to talk tough, which matters on the right. he's been slamming president obama as well as ron paul claiming he's a liberal stalking conservative votes. some of the other candidates are gotten hurt when things from their past popped up or caused them trouble. i asked santorum about that in today's interview. he says he's already been vetted. with him, what you see is what you get. >> so he's ready for a bunch of negative attack ads. they did powerful damage to newt gingrich. is he ready for that onslaugt assuming he does relatively well? >> that's what he says. he pointed out to me he is very much a known quantity having been on capitol hill for so long in washington, d.c. his point being that basically all the questions about rick santorum and his private life have been asked and answered. >> thank you. so, what's behind rick santorum's remarkable surge in iowa? what lies ahead for some of the other candidates who have failed to make an impact with that state's social conservatives? does our new cnn time orc poll offer some answers? joining us from iowa, mark preston and cnn political editor, paul steinhauser. paul, first to you. what are we learning in these polls that might help us better appreciate what's goin on? >> social conservatives, wolf. mark, you know that social conservatives as you said, are so influential on the republican side. santorum, because of his stances on abortion, gay marriage, he's really made a pitch for them. take a look at new poll numbers. this is among self-described born again christians here in iowa who are likely to go to the caucus. look who's on top. rick santorum. 22%. that is one reason why he has been zooming up, tripling his numbers. wolf, another thing he told you, hard work pays off. i know he said that yesterday. one other number i want to share with you and mark, five days until the caucuses. 43% say they might change their mind. they still may change their mind. anything could happen. >> when i was in iowa the last few days, a spoke with a lot of likely iowa caucusgoers and they said they've got preferences, but they're more than ready to change their minds once they go to those schools, churches, those civic centers. this is not a secret ballot. they have to express to everyone who they're supporting, so that's tougher than just pulling a button in a booth. what about some of these other candidates like perry, bachmann, john hun huntsman. they got serious problems. >> the headlines out of the cnn orc time poll was the rise of rick santorum and the fall of newt gingrich. but if you look deeper, it spells deep trouble for perry and bachmann. let's take a quick look at this poll from yesterday. our cnn orc time poll of likely gop caucus participants. their choice for nominee. we've matched that up against our poll from earlier this month out here in iowa and it shows that michele bachmann and rick perry have only been able to move the needle by two percentage points. over the past few weeks. the big question now for michele bachmann and rick perry, can they have enough movement in the next five days to at least place in third or fourth place, get another ticket out of iowa and have their campaign move on? moving on to new hampshire, jon huntsman, who placed his whole presidential run on a big win in the granite state or strong showing. we did a poll earlier this month up there. it shows he's not moving the needle at all. so while again, the headlines out of our polls yesterday was strong showing from mitt romney in new hampshire, really strong in iowa here as well. there are three candidates right now that have to be asking themselves what can they do to try to get voters to support them and wolf, as you know, our viewers know, bottom line is that these early nominating contests are very much a win process as the march for the republican presidential nomination moves on. >> we look forward to seeing who, if anyone, drops out on wednesday, the day after the iowa caucuses. if the seven candidates go down to six or five, maybe four. we'll see what happens. remember four years ago, guys, on the democratic side, chris dodd was running for the democratic nomination. basically moved his whole family to iowa. didn't work out that great for him in his bid, so we'll see what happens this time around. guys, thanks very much. while most of the republican candidates have been running themselves ragged in iowa and digging deep into their campaign war chest, only a small percentage of iowa voters who take part in the caucuses. so here's the question. what's this fuss all about? mary snow has more. >> there has long been a debate about iowa, why iowa and whether it should hold the nation's first presidential contest, but with no agreement on an alternative, as long as iowa's first, it gets plenty of attention. republican presidential hopefuls make the final sprint in iowa as they crisscross the state, campaigns and supporters flood the air waves with ads. $8 million worth and counting just this month. so how much could a win in iowa matter? that depends. >> this was the place where america remembered what it means to hope. >> for barack obama, a victory in iowa proved to be a game changer. on the republican side, a different story. >> tonight, i love iowa a whole lot. >> mike huckabee's upset victory in 2008 with the help of iowa evangelicals failed to gain momentum outside the state. john mccain was the eventual nominee. when you take a look at who won in iowa compared to the parties of eventual nominee -- a win was not only crucial for barack obama, but in 2004 for john kerry and particularly in 1976 for jimmy carter. on the republican side in recent years, iowa victors george w. bush in 2000 and bob dole in 1996, went on to win their party's nomination, but their wins in iowa were not as crucial to their campaigns. started in 1972, the caucuses are more about win ouing down the candidates and some political watchers say the iowa contest has become more about the media attention. >> it's essentially in and of itself -- support and especially funding tends to dry up and if a candidate does better than expected, that support tends to expand and in particular, funding. campaign contributions tend to increase. >> last presidential election, about 118,000 republicans took part in the caucuses. and in iowa, there's a stronger focus on social issues than other parts of the country. 60% of gop caucusgoers in 2008 described themselves as evangelical or born again christians. now, wolf, the turnout of republican caucusgoers in 2008 amounts to roughly one fifth of the number of registered republicans in the state. estimates for what turnout may be this time around are just about all over the map. wolf? >> partially, the weather will be a factor. older people might not necessarily want to leave their homes if it's really, really cold next tuesday night. but based on my an ek doe tall impressions, spending a couple of days there this week, i think they're going to have pretty good turnout. i suspect more than 118,000 who showed up four years ago. >> this time around, there's so many caucusgoers who are more uncertain and the enthusiasm factor as well. >> we'll see what happens. mary, thanks very much and join us in the cnn election center for the first votes in the republican presidential contest. our coverage of the iowa caucuses begins tuesday night, 7:00 p.m. eastern. it's the one rumor that just won't die. the obama citizen quest for some people out there. today, someone in the audience asked newt gingrich abt. you're going to hear his answer. and non-profit groups are raided in egypt. some of them with major ties to some of the most important people here in washington like john mccain and madeleine albright. an outrageous step in cairo. we're going to tell you what's going on. the ramifications are enormous, especially when it comes to the billions in u.s. assistance that goes to egypt. ous. for those of us with lactose intolerance... lactaid® milk. the original 100% lactose-free milk. 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[♪...] >> male announcer: book now, save up to 65%. call 1-800-sandals. egyptian police raiding the offices of three u.s. based prodemocracy human rights organizations, seizing computers and documents. part of a massive sweep against these organizations. one of the american groups is chaired by a former secretary of state, another by a powerful u.s. senator. and mohammed jamjoom is joining us now from cairo. it's outrageous what's going on in cairo right now. tell our viewers what happened on this day. >> well, wolf, we spoke to the spokesperson for the general prosecutors office here. he confirmed to us that security forces conducted 17 raids of nongovernmental organizations in cairo today targeting at least ten groups across the country. the targeted group included freedom house, national democratic institute and the international republican institute and i spoke a short while ago to julie hughes, the country director for ndi. she said this was very surprising that at about 12:50 p.m. local time here today, there was a sim ul tan yous raids of three of their offices in the country here that laptops were taken, paper, electronic devices. some financial records and she says that they had heard before that they were under investigation, but that they didn't get any more really information beyond that. this is something causing a lot of outrage here. a lot of rights activists in egypt saying this is something that wouldn't have even happened during the mubarak days, and a lot of people calling in to question just what the ruling military counsel here is intended to send, what kind of message they're intending to send with these actions. a lot of people here believe this is a clear indication that the supreme counsel of the armed forces are not going to allow a true democratic civil society to flourish in egypt. >> these are organizations that promote democracy, monitor elections. i don't know if the military leaders know that the former secretary of state is the head of the national democratic institute, republican senator john mccain is the head of the international republican institute. do they have a clue what's going on here? how outrageous this is? >> wolf, if they didn't know before, they certainly are getting an indication now. this is a very, very big deal. it's bewildering why the supreme counsel of the armed forces or the general prosecutors office, why they would do this kind of an action, especially targeting these american u.s. organizations. it just doesn't make any sense cht it's sure to strain u.s.-egypt relations at a time there's already a lot of tension here. even in these post revolutionary times when elections are happening, in the past couple of weeks we've seen an inkrecrease crackdowns that have gone on against protesters because military tribunals are still going on and this really something that's only going to add more tension not just within egypt, but especially within the u.s.-egypt relationship, which is such a crucial alliance. >> they're going to have to reverse this and start returning those laptops and all those documents they ransacked those offices in cairo. we'll stay in close touch with you. thanks very much for that update. we're going to have more on this story coming up, including a very, very angry reaction coming in from the obama administration from members of congress. remember, the u.s. provides egypt with billions of dollars in assistance every single year and i suspect that money is right now up in the air, very much on the line, unless the situation there reverses and gets back to the way it was. more on the story coming up. meanwhile, elsewhere in the world, just a day after the extraordinary funeral for north korea's so-called dear leader, kim jong-il, there's been another similar ceremony as his son, the so-called dear successor, jim congrekim jong-u declared the new leader of korea. >> this was the moment mourning ended. three minutes of silence observed by hundreds of thousands across pyonyang. state media claims a site replicated across the whole country. an hour earlier, speeches eulogized the man both revered and feared within his country. the ceremonial head of state spoke of kim jong-il laying the foundations for better relations between the two koreas. a claim that would surprise many outside north korea. anything north korean is, a grand show to the world of solidarity. not only for the late, dear leader, but for the new, supreme leader. a show of national cohesion. under the age of 30, with no military or political experience, kim jong-un front and center of proceedings for a second day running now commands a 1.1 million strong army. at least that is what these pictures are intended to snow. >> kim is to take some traditions and leads to -- more military power and because more allegiance and loyalty from the military, so that might require some more time for him. >> kim jong-un's priority now according to experts is to fill the positions of power left vacant by his father. there's been a flurry of diplomatic activity around the region recently, showing there is a continued fear of the unknown with this military succession. u.s. officials are effectively saying that the ball's in north korea's court and they'll wait until this new leadership is ready to start negotiating again. paula hancocks, cnn, seoul. saudi arabia getting ready to splurge big time on a fighter jet. to the tune of billions and billions of dollars. the white house is thrilled for more reasons than just one. and the iowa caucuses are all over the news. but there's another iowa contest with a $16.5 million prize winning moment that is still waiting. what do you got? 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[ female announcer ] to nurses everywhere, thank you, from johnson & johnson. lisa sylvester is monitoring some of the other top stories in "the situation room," including a multibillion dollar weapons sale to saudi arabia. >> saudi arabia's making a big holiday purchase. $30 billion worth of f-15 fighter jets. the modernization of another 70 planes. the white house claims the deal will provide a $3.5 billion boost to the u.s. economy and support 50,000 american jobs. amazing video from an ireporter in myanmar. an explosion rocked a residential neighborhood killing 20 and injurying more than 95. police official says the blast which happened at a compound of warehouses was most likely caused by a combination of chemicals and not a bomb. verizon wireless will soon make some customers pay more for just paying their billion line or telephone. the $2 convenienience fee goes o affect on january 1st. and the lottery winner in iowa has until the end of the hour. better hurry up there, to claim a $60.5 million prize. the winning ticket was bought a year ago at a quick trip in des moines. if it's not claimed, it would be the second time in a week that a lottery winner failed to come forward. on monday, a $77 million ticket went unclaimed in georgia. so check your lottery ticketed if you happen to buy a ticket. >> please. depressed someone would be to find that six months from now? will president obama's re-election campaign try to rewrite the playbook for victory? a new video suggests his campaign could look to the west as it charges a new chorus to try to win in 2012. and proving you can hunt is a rite of passage for most republican presidential candidates. there are signs that voters' interest in the gun issue right now could be growing. stand by. ait a minute...i... 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