this is "piers morgan tonight." good evening. my one-on-one with steve wozniak is coming up. but first, estimates the storm could cause a stunning $11 billion in damage. if it continues on its current path. tonight, with this monster growing stronger, governors all the way from north carolina to connecticut have already declared states of emergency. amtrak is canceling trains south of washington, airlines are canceling flights. new york may shut down the subways on saturday. millions of people preparing for the worst of a storm. today, wind gusts up to 115 miles an hour. threatens to dump 15 inches of rain as it charges up the east coast. cnn is covering this story from every angle. i want to bring in jim spellman, live in the bahamas. chad myers from the cnn hur can center. jim, they're describing this as the hurricane of a lifetime. you've been in the middle of this. describe for me the power of what you've been through. >> reporter: yeah, all day we got a preview of what the east coast is going to see, just pounding wind hour after hour, 15 straight hours of heavy wind, heavy rain, just lashing against this island here. fortunately, it was just far enough offshore that it didn't do any major damage to the tourist areas. a lot of viewers will be familiar with paradise island, all those survived just fine. some of the smaller islands, still waiting on confirmation, i understand there has been serious damage there. the they have to get better communications set up to do that. listen, this was a very serious storm. i had trouble standing up in it. it was really a glancing blow. the population center is on the east coast, it's going to be the real thing, piers. >> chad myers, the latest reports i think came out a few moments ago. bring us up to date with the current state of the hurricane. >> it is still 115 miles per hour, piers. it is gaining strength now. it didn't do very well during the day. actually, it lost a little bit of strength over the bahamas. and now, with dark now, there's not as much shear in the atmosphere, not up-and-down motion. so the storm will get stronger. it very well could be a 120-mile-per-hour storm when we wake up and it will be traveling to the north, right in the way of north carolina. i don't see any way that north carolina gets out of this. even for the northeast, all of the computer models at this point, piers, either from boston over to the poconos, but new york city is right in the middle. >> chad, just explain to me, as a layman, about this kind of thing. what is the probability now given all the computer projections that you've been looking at, what is the probability today that come sunday, new york city could get hit by this hurricane in a direct hit? >> that is the forecast. and so it would have to turn left or turn right to be wrong. and so the chance of that is at least of it happening is at least 50/50. there's a 50% of it chance being left or right, but reasonable the cone, the center of the cone, that we tell you never to look at, but that's the forecast. that's the true points that the hurricane center has been looking at now for days and days and days. that's the likely place that the hurricane goes. right through cape hatteras, or just off to the west, and right along the jersey shore, right over coney island, and into the hudson river. could be straight up the hudson river and then across into massachusetts as an 85, maybe 90-mile-per-hour storm. that's the likely scenario. >> chad, even if it misses a direct hit, there could still be some pretty substantial damage, right? even if it's just a little offshore? >> yes. especially if it's a little bit left of the city. this is an inundays map of a category 2 hurricane. this is a theoretical hurricane, it will some day happen, if this is the one or not. it takes the water into the south sea port, all the way into what has been dug out of where the twin towers were. water right all the way down to battery park. the flooding area along battery park and also up toward the west si highway. so this is just literally about eight feet of water getting pushed into the harbor, right by lady liberty. it's the water that gets pushed ahead. think about this, if you grab a cup of coffee, and you blow on the cup of coffee to cool it off, you see the waves that your breath makes to cool the coffee. that's the -- and you're only 5 miles per hour with your breath. think about a 100-mile-per-hour winds taking waves and water from the ocean and pushing that against the new york city coastline. that's what we're talking about. that's the push of the water. that's the surge that a hurricane makes. >> chad, thanks very much indeed. in virginia, there are a lot of people wondering what they've done to make mother nature so mad at them. first a hurricane, now a hurricane bearing down on them. governor, the situation yesterday didn't seem quite as urgent. today you declared a state of emergency. the hurricane has changed direction now. it seems to be coming straight at you. are you prepared, do you think, for what may be coming? >> piers, it's been quite a week in the dismal swamp and earthquake and now with this change over the last 24 hours and the storm track looks like it would come right across virginia beach and hampton roads area where there are 1 million people that will be experiencing hurricane force winds. we've been working on this really for days. but today with the change in the track, i issued an emergency declaration. this afternoon, i gave authority to all of our local governments in the state to issue mandatory evacuation orders. some have done it, some are still issuing voluntary orders and waiting for the morning. but we have been in close contact with all of our local officials, emergency management people, talking -- i spoke to secretary napolitano with my fellow governors in north carolina and maryland. we're working together and i think the answer is, yes, i think we're prepared. the key is, people have to be prepared and stay tuned and take all precautions that they can now. >> one of the bigger concerns, governor, is around new york city, because of the density there, the population, the skyscrapers and so on. are you concerned about what may happen if it hits directly on new york city? >> well, absolutely. they're very much not used to having events of this type along that part of the northeast seaboard, new york, boston and those. but my immediate concern, obviously, is my great state that looks like it's right in the bull's-eye, over 1 million people that look like they're going to be right near the eye, very low-lying areas and hampton road, newport news and others, up the eastern shore of virginia. this is a very bad situation for our state, which is why we're asking people to evacuate, at least on a volunteer basis from the low-lying areas. and prepare now. that's the biggest thing, piers, no matter what the government does, people have got to take precautions with everything from their pets, to their backup power systems to all the things that they need to do to protect themselves. if they're in a low-lying area, we're telling them try to get out now. within 36 hours or so, we might be closing roads and bridges. and tunnels in virginia. because of the danger. >> governor, we keep our fingers crossed for you. hope it changes direction again and goes off safely. in the meantime, good luck with everything in your preparations. >> well, we're working hard. i appreciate you letting me come on. we're on top of it. thanks, piers. >> thanks, governor. joining me now, abc news weather champion, catastrophe expert who says new york is second only to new orleans in terms of the flood risk. let me start with you. you've seen a lot of storms in your time. how do you rate this one? what are you feeling about it? >> don't like this one at all. first of all, good evening, piers. 18 years i was proudly new york's weather man. i know every inch of that coastline. this is the kind of storm we feared. let me start with the rains first. very wet august. anything that falls, and it could be a foot of rain in new jersey, four to eight inches of rain in new york city, and any rain that falls is going to be flooding rain. this is going to be bad flooding rain. in the wind, with the saturated ground, you've got trees ready to come down now. this kind of wind, 80-mile-per-hour constant city wind in the new york city area, will take trees down, power lines down. we know it will do a lot of damage. in the skyscrapers, the wind at the base of the skyscraper is exponentially tougher on the building the higher you go. maybe a 50-mile-per-hour wind at the ground, could be a 70-mile-per-hour wind by the time you get several stories up. if this track is exactly planned across new york city, the big element of coastal flooding, the reason i don't like this storm for new york city at all, you've got a wall of water that storm surge, about five to ten feet above normal coming at high tide time. and then you've got those waves that are 20 to 25 feet all along the jersey shore, the long island shore. this is the kind of storm that will breach those sand bars. if it is on this track. it will breach the sand bars that are protecting the coastline and drive water in. in new york harbor, the way the harbor's configured, when you push that amount of water in, and make a turn toward lower manhattan, you're going to get a double height of water, which will flood basically that battery in lower manhattan. this is the kind of storm we're talked about for years as being a fear in new york city, and we really hope this storm takes a turn, piers. >> pretty ominous stuff there from sam champion. do you think new york city is ready for this? >> well, new york obviously doesn't get hit by hurricanes very frequently. so it's hard to imagine that people are mentally prepared for the type of catastrophe that this is likely to be. we hope people will listen to warnings, and evacuate if necessary. but there are always the cases where people don't heed the warnings. but hopefully there's been enough publicity about how this storm could impact the area, so hopefully people will -- if they're not prepared, start getting prepared right now. >> sam, let me come back to you. in terms of the categorization of this hurricane, am i right in thinking if it hits land somewhere on the way, in the carolinas, somewhere in virginia, before it gets to new york city, the power of the hurricane would start to diminish? is that what happens? >> absolutely, piers. you've got one of the best on your team, chad myers, by the way, who's really good at this. i will tell you that if this storm hits as a category 2 or 3 in the carolinas, and the eye is taken off the water for any real amount of time, and if it spends even some time on lapped, you start to weaken that storm as well. even if it were to stay on the water and work into new england, the water's colder. we know it's going to lose strength. our guesstimate in the hurricane center's estimate, by the time it gets toward new york city, it is probably still a weakening category 1. but that's a very powerful storm for this kind of populated area. and maybe tropical storm strength winds for the boston area is what we're looking at. so you're right, when this storm hits the carolinas it then begins to weaken as it goes north. but it's not good news if it follows this track. >> mayor bloomberg 8:00 a.m. saturday morning a decision will be taken about evacuation. isn't that leaving it a bit late? >> well, evacuation is a very tricky thing. because we've seen instances before, it's a very expensive proposition. so we've seen instances before where the warning is given too early, or the issue, and then it's a very -- then there's criticism for that. but on long island and other areas of new york, it's really critical that people evacuate as soon as possible. whatever the experts say in terms of evacuation, hopefully people will heed the warnings. because these storms can change -- >> sam, do you want to -- i'm sorry. sam wants to comment on that. >> we've got 7 million people on long island. you can't evacuate long island. even for a storm of the size we're talking about right now, you don't have to. what you have to do is get people out of the flood plains and off the coast. the general plan is to move people inland to hurricane shelters if they have them or be in a protected zone. you just can't credibly be talking about evacuating an island of 7 million people through one interstate that goes in, and factions into bridges and tunnels into brooklyn and queens and new york city. it just can't happen. >> sam champion, karen clark, thank you very much. the battle for libya, nic robertson is there for us live, and much more on hurricane irene later in the show. 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[ female announcer ] the 10 point safeguard check from walgreens. if something is simply the color of gold, is it really worth more? we don't think so. chase sapphire preferred is a card of a different color. unlike others, you get twice the points on travel, and twice the points on dining, and no foreign transaction fees. call now or apply at chasesapphire.com/preferred. in tripoli tonight, rebels say it's a matter of time until the dictator is caught. senior international correspondent, nic robertson. who is the latest over there now? >> reporter: well, it seems the rebels were working on rumors rather than fact, places they thought they had gadhafi surrounded, turned out not to be that. chasing shadows is what the rests have achieved in the city today. as far as they know, they certainly haven't found gadhafi. and don't have any stronger leads than the ones they've been working on, piers. >> gadhafi has been planning a potential escape for a very long time. he's been a huge target for years. so what is your gut feeling about how he may be trying to get out of there, without being spotted, caught or whatever? >> this is a guy who's incredibly paranoid. he will have been planning for such a scenario, was he caught flat-footed when the rebels moved in more quickly, believing that his forces can hold down tripoli longer? perhaps. but you've got kids on checkpoints, high on adrenaline of success. you've got truckloads of gunmen going through. if you posed as a bunch of rebels on a truck, and had somebody hidden in a hidden compartment in a truck, you could get through. gadhafi has tribes in this country that have been loyal to him, that have been untested by this transitional government so far. there are a number of places he could be hiding out in the south, in the west and even in the central coastal areas. his old hometown. a lot of places, and a lot of people he could still count on. so i think that's what we've got to believe is where he is. probably not in tripoli. can't rule it out. there are plenty of other options, piers. >> nic, you spent a little bit of time in libya this year. gadhafi went on the aur waves on radio today, urging whoever's left of his supporters, not to leave tripoli for the rats. how many people are still backing gadhafi? do you have any kind of estimate for that? >> reporter: you know what's really weird here is, i went over to the rixos hotel here, the matthew matthew and jamana were held up in by the gunman, that we stayed in six weeks earlier on in the year, the government minders working with us then, i met one of those at the gate today, this afternoon. he told me, well, i just switched sides from the government. i'm with the rebels now. if he can do that, how many of the loyalists can just sort of change their colors, if you will, put on a rebel flag. the same sort of thing in iraq. the saddam hussein loyalists melted into the crowd. so you've got to believe a lot of people have done that here. yes, there will be some hldout gunmen here, forces still loyal to gadhafi. but they are not going to represent all those people who would support him. he's not going to be able to rise up and take this country back. but these people who could come back in some sort of insurgencyinsurgency. they've got to turn these kids at checkpoints to policemen that haven't run much more than a city council until now. and a country of 6 million to 8 million people. they've got huge challenges ahead of them right now. so gadhafi's loyalists, however small they are, can cause a real thorn in the side in the coming weeks, and perhaps months, piers. >> amid all this chaos, and seriousness, there was a moment of great high relief, i thought, with the discovery of the photo album of condoleezza rice in gadhafi's compound. what on earth was that all about? >> reporter: what on earth was that all about indeed. who would have believed that gadhafi would have found the -- you know, condoleezza rice, part of president bush's government, was somebody that he could be enamored with, let's say. okay, gadhafi was becoming to come clean around that time. he had fessed up, handed over his weapons of mass destruction. condoleezza rice was in president bush's administration at that time. so hey, perhaps it was he was impressed with the people in president bush's administration. we don't know. it shows the weirdness of the situation, and how unpredictable this guy is. >> there's nothing weird about having condi rice as a pinup. i'll differ with you there. fascinating. the man who wrote the book on business, apple co-founder, on the amazing career of steve jobs. i'm rob jones. quicken loans closed my loan fast. and i know a thing or two about fast. i purchased 3 homes with quicken loans. i wouldn't use anyone else. there were no hidden fees and no surprises. quicken loans is a lot like me -- we're both engineered to amaze. we think a lot of them are going to get into the home. we would like to say they're going to get there through the garage door. people will bring them home to work on through the weekend. sunday morning they won't be able to get their kids away from them. and maybe buy a second one to leave at home. >> that was a very young and handsome steve jobs in 1984. before he rose to the top of the business world. jack welsh knew him for 20 years. he joins me on the phone. jack, welcome. i know you're speaking from your home in nantucket. clearly, the projections about this hurricane are getting grimmer by the minute for that area. are you worried? >> it looks like it's turning in towards new york a little more than here. but we'll have to see. no one knows right now. >> presumably you'll be dealing with it in your normal fearless way, jack. >> i'm not sure. i've got the storm doors on. >> i want to talk to you about steve jobs. because you've described him as the greatest ceo of all-time. which is one hell of an accolade given some of the other candidates. why do you say that about him? >> you know, because i know steve jobs. i don't know him very well personally. but i've watched him for