Reason iowa has not been a good predictor of the eventual winner is because the last candidates won here in a similar way, focused on maximizing support among evangelical christians, but then they had trouble reaching out beyond that community in other states and couldnt make a go of it. A problem that was apparent immediately in new hampshire. One thing ill be watching for on monday is in the exit poll, who wins the minority of voters who are not evangelical christians because that winner has usually won the nomination. The problem for haley, on track to be the last Standing Alternative to trump ten days from now after new hampshire, is that she has to peel away more republicans. To do that, she has to make a stronger case against trump