>> that caution is borne of an important lesson, part of what will president obama will tell this evening. >> major combat operations in iraq have ended. and the battle of iraq, the united states and our allies have prevailed. >> that was seven years and 4 months ago, under that now infamous mission accomplished banner. in an hour ahead, a reminder how much iraq has cost america. debate about the military and political lessons learned. joining me as we await the president's speech, brent, democratic representative keith ellerton. david fromme, one of president bush's speech writer. in new york, fareed zakari. let's check in with our senior correspondent ed henry. >> reporter: john, you're right. in one of the excerpts the president talks about how now it is time to turn the page, on iraq, specifically, but what top aids he waepts wants to do, is focus things on afghanistan. i asked some of these aides whether president obama would have any reaction on john boehner, one aide said who cares. they say, he wants to look forward not back. it's time to refocus things on afghanistan. as you heard the president today, he was talking about and warning the american people about what he called heartbreak ahead. there's going to be a lot more casualties in afghanistan. the fact that general david petraeus takes it directly to al qaeda and taliban. that there will be a lot more casualties and he wants to prepare the u.s. for that. a campaign promise was to focus a lot more resources and troops on afghanistan. something that he said back in the campaign that george w. bush didn't do enough. let's get straight to our panel. among the many challenges that the president faces, is iraq ready? there are questions, are the security forces up to the task of taking on more and more responsibility? and can they do so in a country that has a coalition caretaker government? >> i would divide that into two parts, on the military side, iraq is increasingly ready. we have gone where total security was provided by americans. now, the american troops are drawing back. it will be iraqi troops out in front with americans only as a help. so, i think that is going pretty much according to schedule. the political issue, though, is not over. and iraq's not over until we can be confident that there is a structure there, that will solve its problems with the kind of give and take, instead of a zero sum gain, which still threatens iraq, so we have to consider that aspect of it. >> fareed, from your spperspec e perspective, what is the president's biggest challenge tonight? we're coming out of a very difficult recession and it's going to be a lot fight here at home. >> i think you're exactly right, john. the challenge that the president faces follows entirely from what brent just said. there is still a very significant problem in iraq. and it relates exactly what brent was talking about which is the political deal that create genuine and lasting stability in iraq. now the president has to figure out how he asks the american people for their support, for a very large military commitment in iraq that is not there to -- to prevent, you know, a foreign invasion, as say in korea in the 1950s. it's there in some way to oversee the successful political development of iraq. and that is something that i think americans are not that anxious to do right now in midst of a recession and afghanistan on their plate. the responsible thing for the united states to do would be to in some way help oversee this political development. can -- he he try to make the case? or will he hope that americans have sub contracted iraq to washington? as long as american troops don't die, we don't care how many troops are there. >> congressman, you'll get a vote and you're from part of democratic party, wanted these wars over yesterday if not sooner. i want to show our viewers, remind our viewers some of the toll in iraq. the troop levels going back to the beginning, 2004, you see, january 2007 the surge begins. 49,500. the troops that the president says are not combat troops. at the same time the president says it's going to be billions, more bloodshed and years more in afghanistan, will you stand with him? >> well, i'm going to stand with the american people and i do wish the president well, we got to learn less sons of iraq. let's go back the promises that there were wmds there. we were told that we had prevent a smoking gun from becoming a mushroom cloud. all of these things were things that could have been addressed if we asked the tough questions, those questions need to be asked in afghanistan right now. reports i have heard, there is less than 100 al qaeda in after zban stan, that much of the population, they want to help strengthen afghanistan. so, the fact is, we've got to learn lessons of iraq, we can't allow ourselves to simply say to salute the president and not ask any questions that's not the role of congress, that's not the role of the press and i hope that we never see another conflict where the united states is embedding the press along with military troops so that we're not getting different prospectives on the war. we need to have critical analysis to make sure we're doing the right things and analysis to make sure weir not walking down a path based on the false perception that loyalty to the president -- patriotism is to the american people. >> in some ways some people say that this is a military milestone. it's clear from listening to a fellow member of the president's democratic party, he has a very tough sale in his own family. >> the president is not speaking to the american people tonight. they'll be listening tonight. but he's talking to his own people. is this good enough to get you disillusioned liberals to the polls? their core supporters have lost a lot of support in the president. is this good enough for you? the congressman is telling you the answer to that question will probably be no. >> i want to look forward when we come back. the communication challenge for the president. is iraq ready for this moment? >> well, there's going to be a lot of difficult days ahead, john. but, look the surge helped bring down violence and it didn't lead to political accommodations. as these forces are drawing down, it's going to take, perhaps weeks maybe even months to get to political deal in iraq. but the presence of more u.s. forces isn't necessarily going to accelerate that process. that's something that happens on its own time frame. so, you know, iraq is probably as ready as it ever will be and you know, we have to be clear with ourselves. there's going to be continued risks and danger for the remaining american forces on the ground and there's going to be a lot more bloody days ahead in this that country. >> we'll continue our conversation with our great panel. the president will explain the many challenges ahead. as we go ahead and prepare to listen to the president, let's take a moment to look back to where we are today. >> saddam hussein's actions have put us on notice and there's no refuge from our responsibilities. at this hour, american and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations to disarm iraq, to free its people and defend the world from grave danger. with shockguard technology give you immediate relief that lasts all day long. dr. scholl's. visit our facebook page to save $3. everyone who wants to go to college and everyone who started college but never finished... to late bloomers... full-time moms... and everyone who is good at something but wants to be great. welcome to kaplan university. the university that's changing the face of education... to undergraduate degrees, graduate degrees... degrees that can give you a leg up... in a tough job market... in any job market... welcome. welcome to kaplan university. call kaplan university now or visit us on-line to take our free learning assessment. it was a real shock. i remember being at the hospital thinking, "i should have done more to take care of myself." you should've. that's why i'm exercising more now. eating healthier. and i also trust my heart to lipitor. 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[ male announcer ] have a heart to heart with y. and about lipitor. countdown to the president's address from the oval office at the top of the hour. a little bit more than 48 minutes before we get there. as we continue the conversation, there's a lot of talk in washington. we're having one here. often forgot in this debate are the families who have paid the ultimate price, i sat down with carol, she lost her son in iraq. he helped detonate roadside bombs. she now works with the uso helping troops as they come home. this remarkable woman says that she has a big question, her question is, is the right time to come out? essentially, will her son have died in vain? >> we listen to the guys and we listen to them when they work the uso and they, too, are not quite that we're ready. we just hope and pray that, you know the iraqis can stand up, because i don't want another mother or another father to go through what we have gone through. there's a void that will never be filled. you know, we need to be able to -- i realize we helped these people, but we need to know that our children did not die in vain. >> fareed, enormous ricks for the president at this moment, if you look at the polling, the american people want this war over, but, as the president says we're getting out, there will be dangerous days ahead for the troops left behind? >> absolutely. there are two points to make here, john, one is the president has to speak here as the president. not as the senator, not as the candidate. certainly not as an analyst or a historyian trying to assess whether iraq was worth it. he'll have to give meaning to this war, even if he himself privately has doubts and skepticism about that meaning. that is, you know tradition in american history. you have to help people feel that their sons and daughters have not died in vain. so, there's, you know that element which is probably absolute crucial how the president handles it. the second thing, the fact that the country is tired of this, the president is going to have to ask for some perseverance. >> to point that fareed just made, senator barack obama opposed the war in iraq. he gave a speech to the american legion, if you listen to secretary gates, it's pretty clear that he also thinks it was a bad idea. >> with the invasion of iraq, our attention and our resources were diverted. afghanistan became a second-tiered priority for troops, equipment and development assistance. starting in 2003, the taliban reground. refilled their ranks. reconstituted themselves in safe havens and re-entered afghanistan and violence began to increase significantly in 2005 as has grown worse ever since. >> you wrote an op-ed piece raising a lot of these same flags, if you're secretary gates, president obama what is your challenge now because it is your war now? >> the challenge is, to -- we need to look back at some time and say do we do this right? did we do that right? th this is not the time for that. we need to concentrate how can we make a success out of where we are now. that is what will give some hope to the wonderful women like we just saw whose son diedz, that they did not die in vain. if we concentrate on arguing, do we do the right thing or not? we're lickly to miss what we need to do now and i think now is the transition from iraq to afghanistan. but, if the afghanistanis think we are diserting iraq, it's certainly doesn't help our mission in afghanistan. our president's job is to say, yes, we're doing well in iraq but we need to finish the job while we're focusing on afghanistan. we have to work in a quick break as we await president obama's address from the oval office. that's after the break. but first, something else that secretary gates said today a tribute during his speech at the american legion. >> the courage of these men and women, their determination, their sacrifice, and the sacrifice of their families, along with the service and sacrifice of so many others in uniform, have made this day, this transition, possible. and we must never forget. we get double miles on every purchase. uh-oh. we get doue miles every time wuse our card. i'll take these. no matter what we're buying. plus the damages. and since double miles add up quick, we can bring the whole gang. it's hard to beat double miles. no, we ride them! [ male announcer ] introducing the venture card from capital one, with double miles on every purchase every day. go to capitalone.com. what's in your wallet? oh, that's the spot! welcome back. we're standing by for a dress from president obama from the oval office. here's the latest news you need to know right now. >> john, some exclusive information from alaska where a top aide to senator lisa murkowsi telsays that the campa could be decided tonight. she was down by 2,000 votes last count. several thousands to be counted. forecasters expect hurricane earl to move up the east coast by friday. the eye of the storm expected to stay offshore but a hurricane watch has been issued north of surf city, north carolina. to is the v./north carolina border. the a ruling blocking stem cell rer search. also, a new book about her father's presidential campaign, megan mccain describes sarah palin, quote, as a time bomb, because the minute sarah arrived, the campaign began splitting apart. >> as we await the president's address at. of the hour, one of the big questions that washington is asking is this, was it worth it? a quick look at iraq then and now, going back in time. here's where some of the money is being spent on reconstruction. water and sanitation get about 38% reconstruction funding. health, 26%. education, 20 per suspect. what is iraq like now compared to before the war? there was no cellar phone service, now nearly 20 million cell phones in the country. prewar, internet access, 4,600 internet connections. now, thriving internet connection, 1.6 million. water quality is still an interesting. 50% of iraqis had access to quality war. here's one another quick look, before the war, iraq was producing 1.3 million barrels of oil a day. now it's to 2.4 million barrels a day. the coast of war in money and in blood, but on the ground in iraq, is iraq a better, more functioning country now than it was at the beginning? >> well, john, think the jury is still out on that, when you ask the iraqi people themselves, they'll say they still need to wait and see especially with this political impasse that this nation finds itself in. after the march elections. no new government forming. a decreased levels of violence. it's still daily violence. assassinati assassinations, suicide bombings. people who we speak to, they're still fearful about their -- when swe speak to general odierno, they'll say we still don't know whether or not this war was worth it. lot of it is in the hands of the iraq politicians. iraq very much is at a cross roads right direction, sectaria. another one, a path on more stake. >> arwa, thank you. if you asked the average iraqi do you want the americans to stay? what would be the answer be? >> there's fierce nationalism there. they chaif at the idea there that there are still foreign troops on their soil. many iraqis want foreign forces out, yet they're very nervous about the future. the shiites are suspicious of the sunnis. they started toward to the americans. there's a little bit in the back of many americans, this view perhaps the americans can keep things from spiraling further downward, particularly as they start to sort out the political impass. >> and, david, you were there at the beginning of this, how do you see it at the end? if we're at the end. at this moment, we're not at the end. >> we're not at the end. this went the way that very few expected and nobody wanted. it's been much more blooded. in 2003 and had that $4 been granted, lot of mistakes could have been avoided. but if the president tonight is going to summon the country to follow him, he has to be in a more full-throated way. you were talking about it a moment ago. the camera finds you out. if the president doesn't think that this war is worth it, he's in the an actor, he's a leader. and that will be seen. >> we are about half-hour away. from the president's speech to the nation from oval office. when we come back, among the conversations with the president's national security adviser. in 2008 i quit venture capital to follow my passion for food. i saw a gap in the market for a fresh culinary brand and launched behindtheburner.com. we create and broadcast content and then distribute it across tv, the web and via mobile. i even use the web to get paid. with acceptpay from american express open, we now invoice advertisers and receive payments digitally. and i get paid on average three weeks faster. booming is never looking for a check in the mail. because it's already in my email. climate protection. challenges as vast as the space race a generation ago. and vital to global security. to reach this destination, our engineers are exploring every possibility. from energy efficiency to climate monitoring. securing our nations clean energy future is all a question of how. and it is the how that will make all the difference. 30 minutes away from president obama's address to the nation from to oval office, he'll declare combat operations in iraq over. he'll remind the american people that some 50,000 troops remain. among those helping the president shape these controversial and delicate policies, his national security adviser, james jones, who joins us right now. first, let me get your aszment on how the president used this challenge in speaking to the american people. >> i think he's got a very noble task here to signal a milestone accomplishment, which is the end of our combat missions, recognizing how difficult it has been the enormous sacrifice of lives and resources not just on our part but from our allies, allies who have been with us from the start and many of whom are still with us from afghanistan, so he'll pay tribute to the courage of our men and women in uniform and our civilians who have fought the good fight. and brought us to this point. this is not the end -- this is not the end of the mission, but it is a milestone. >> as a general, someone who wore the uniform for years and who has himself been in combat, you want victory. that's why jones go to victory. what will we call iraq? some say success, some say get out, will we ever get victory? >> i think we're on the path to seeing iraq emerge as a free democratic state. lot of the things that are going on in iraq are very democratic. and a lot of things going on aren't democratic as well. in the formation of the government this morning, i spoke with the vice president's team, the vice president is on the ground working with all parties to form this new government the iraqis want and deserve. they had an election and they need it. however, it's not to say that there's no government there. there's a caretaker government there. their government is functioning. >> yet, even your commanding general on the ground is