. a federal judge last hour handing down that four-month sentence bannon will remain free while an appeal plays out. outside the courthouse minutes after learning his fate bannon thanked the judge and immediately attacked democrats. >> november 8th -- on november 8th -- on november 8th there's going to have judgment on the illegitimate biden regime and, quite frankly -- and, quite frankly, that nancy pelosi and the entire committee, or they are about to be beaten like luria and others, or they will lose their power and become a minority. the american people are weighing and measuring what went on with the justice department and how they comported themselves. >> we're going to take you straight outside of the courthouse where cnn's sara murray has been covering all of the developments inside. sara, the judge seemed pretty dismissive of bannon's efforts to defy the subpoena, but ultimately bannon got jail time, which is had more or less what the government wanted. >> reporter: that's right, i mean, the sentence is a little bit less than what the government was asking for. they wanted him to have six months behind bars, a $200,000 fine. the judge settled on four months behind bars and a $6,500 fine. bannon didn't want any jail time at all, he wanted probation. the judge made pretty clear today that was not going to happen, that there was going to be some period of incarceration, but, you know, in a big win for ban the judge said all of this is going to be delayed pending his a deal. so if bannon is successful in his appeal, if he's able to overturn his conviction, of course, he would not face any time behind bars. if he is not successful he's looking at that four months and he's looking at that fine. one of the things the judge made clear as we were going through the sentencing today is he pointed out that steve bannon didn't show any remorse for defying a subpoena, for testimony as well as for documents. there are some documents that he certainly could have provided, that steve bannon has been out of the government for a long period of time, that there were ways he could have been more responsive. and the judge also pointed out that this needs to be a deterrent to other people, a signal that you can't just, you know, get a subpoena and have your lawyer send a letter and refuse to provide anything or, you know, even lay out a list of sort of what your objections are document by document. i think that is the message the judge was hoping to send, you know, ultimately bannon's team feels like this is a victory for them in some ways because this sentence is delayed. i'm told he is headed home to film his podcast for the day. abby? >> as one could expect from steve bannon. sara murray, thank you so much. here to walk us through some of the details of the legal part of this sentencing is cnn's legal analyst and former prosecutor paul callan. as sara just described the judge did hand down jail time but not as much as the government wanted and not as much as he could have gotten, up to a year in jail, and then the financial part of this was pretty small as well. what do you make of how the judge came down on those fronts? >> it looks to me, abby, like a compromised sentence. he threw a little bit to both sides. that would have been a staggeringly high fine, the $200,000 fine the department of justice requested and of course they wanted six months in prison. the judge settled on four months. but the judge also leaned in bannon's favor in another area by saying i'm going to give you an opportunity to appeal this case and you will not have to go to jail during that time. he granted a stay. and there are interesting issues that are raised here, one is it's called the defense of counsel advice. bannon's contention has always been that ex-president trump invoked the executive privilege doctrine and that his attorney advised him not to go to congress and not to answer any questions in congress. that concept is now going to be tested in an appellate court. this judge gave him the opportunity to do that. >> to that point, paul, bannon's attorneys earlier this week argued exactly that, they asked in a sentencing memo should a person who spent a lifetime listening to experts as a naval officer, investment banker, presidential adviser be jailed on relying on the advice of his lawyers. this particular judge said the answer to that question is yes but an appeal could further reveal whether or not he will actually end up serving time. i did also want to ask you, paul, about this idea that bannon's lawyers made the case to the judge today that he doesn't need to be deterred, that there is no sort of need to penalize him, but bannon outside of the courthouse seemed to be completely unrepentant about any of this. is there not a need to spend a signal in terms of the rule of law here? >> well, you know, bannon is about the most unlocking remorseful character in the entire political system, as best i can see. he's very aggressive in his podcasts and he has never expressed an ounce of remorse for defying congress with respect to this subpoena. the judge, i think, emphasized that, saying that's one of the reasons, most important reason, that he was getting four months in prison. as for that second thing that you raised, the deterrence, i think the judge in his reference to deterrents said it's not to deter bannon from committing another crime, it's to send a message to other people who might want to defy a congressional subpoena that you are facing jail time and a substantial fine and that's why he was proceeding with this sentence, even though he conceded there were some issues that an appellate court might want to look at. >> that has been the significance of this bannon trial all along. what it means for other people who might want to stiff arm the congressional subpoena process. paul callan, thank you so much for that breakdown. here to help us break the rest of all of it down is cnn's kasie hunt, jeff zeleny and francesca chambers of "usa today." classic steve bannon outside of that courthouse today. he is clearly really eager to come out of this a martyr. >> he's certainly trying to and i think that that that's what his audience is looking for from him because i think one of the interesting things about bannon as a figure in all of this is that he really had lost the support of anyone in establishment washington no matter what party they were a part of. there were republicans on the hill, trump supporters on the hill, who were very frustrated with how he dealt with the intelligence committee, for example, and that kind of went all the way through, you know, up to how the trump -- the former president handled the trial piece and kind of how he was involved in this case. so i don't know if it's going to provide any other lessons for others on the committee for that reason, but certainly bannon is going to try to use it to increase his own notoriety. >> i want to remind folks about why bannon was such a crucial witness for the january 6th committee. it's because he was in the lead up to january 6, basically previewing what trump was going to do -- i'm sorry, i should say in the lead up to the election, previewing what trump was going to do after the election and also previewing what was going to happen on january 6. take a listen to what we heard from the committee in the last few weeks. >> all hell is going to break loose tomorrow. just understand this. all hell is going to break loose tomorrow. it's not going to happen like you think it's going to happen, okay? it's going to be quite extraordinarily different and all i can say is strap in. the war room -- a posse, you have made this happen and tomorrow it's game day so strap in. >> and one of the arguments that prosecutors made in this case, abby, was this wasn't defying any congressional subpoena, this was a congressional subpoena especially related to january 6 where democracy and the capitol building were under attack. they were arguing they saw this as more serious than some of these other cases. you heard the attorneys for bannon arguing that there were other individuals who weren't charged for defying congressional subpoenas but a key thing in this case had been that he wasn't working for the white house at the time when he made those comments and therefore executive privilege was something that he had claimed didn't apply in this case. >> it's always been interesting to me, interesting -- doing a lot of work here -- but interesting to me that he would claim executive privilege without -- it's not clear even in that -- in that clip that we just played what the president had to do with any of that. i mean, bannon will never have to explain what he knew and why he knew it because he didn't -- he didn't ultimately respond to the subpoena. now he might go to jail and pay a small fine but we will never know from a factual perspective what he knew. >> right. and i think it's -- i mean, he left the white house in 2018, he was one of the many people who left in the earliest stages of the first term, there were so many people leaving at the time, but, look, he remained very central to the former president at the time. we aren't sure how often they spoke, but it was pretty often, but steve bannon there has just -- i mean, he offered the most clear-eyed preview of what was going to happen on january 6th. i think, you know, had all of us been paying attention to that, strap in, i guess, that's what he was talking about. but, look, we won't know for history what exactly he knew in terms of his conversations with the former president, but i don't think this is a deterrent for others necessarily at all and we will see if he ends up serving prison time or not, but he's going to capitalize off this. he knew there were live cameras up there, all the cable networks were taking him live and he was trying to pivot toward november 8. he loved today. we will see how he enjoys prison if he serves it. >> certainly not a deterrent in part also because other people who defied subpoenas were never taken to court at all. stand by for us. join drew griffin for an investigation into steve bannon and his master plan to reshape the united states government and the republican party, a cnn special report "divided we fall" airs tonight at 11:00 p.m. eastern time. 18 days from the midterms and the ratings now show that the map is tilting in the favor of republicans. we will break down those numbers next. so i choose neuriva plus. unlike some others, neuriva plus is a multitasker supporting 6 key indicators of brain health. to help keep me sharp. neuriva: think bigger. i brought in ensure max protein with 30 grams of protein. those who tried me felt more energy in just two weeks. uhh - here, i'll take that ensure max protein, with 30 grs of protein, 1 gram of sugar and now in two new flavors (♪) (vo) the older. the physically challenged. the last to be chosen. shelter dogs with special needs face a far longer road to adoption. but subaru knows even the toughest roads can lead to the most amazing places. that's why subaru and our retailers created national make a dog's day... to help all underdogs find homes. subaru. more than a car company. moderate to severe eczema still disrupts my skin. despite treatment it disrupts my skin with itch. it disrupts my skin with rash. but now, i can disrupt eczema with rinvoq. rinvoq is not a steroid, topical, or injection. it's one pill, once a day, that's effective without topical steroids. many taking rinvoq saw clear or almost-clear skin while some saw up to 100% clear skin. plus, they felt fast itch relief some as early as 2 days. that's rinvoq relief. rinvoq can lower your ability to fight infections, including tb. serious infections and blood clots, some fatal, cancers including lymphoma and skin cancer, death, heart attack, stroke, and tears in the stomach or intestines occurred. people 50 and older with at least one heart disease risk factor have higher risks. don't take if allergic to rinvoq, as serious reactions can occur. tell your doctor if you are or may become pregnant. disrupt the itch and rash of eczema. talk to your doctor about rinvoq. learn how abbvie can help you save. 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and is there anything an opportunity for democrats to kind of at least halt the momentum that's going in republicans' directions now. everything has started to move faster in our politics along with our information media environment, so we're still a couple weeks out, there's still room for this to change, but if it's moving as fast as it appears to, what we would be looking at and, you know, he think nathan's data lays this out, is some seriously surprising losses, potentially some bigger name democrats that we didn't expect to lose their seats in the house. i mean, everyone i talked to, democrats in public will try to tell you there is a chance they are going to keep the house n private no one is saying that. >> nathan, i want to touch on the senate, though. you made one shift in the senate landscape. tell us about that. >> we moved the iowa senate race where chuck grassley is running for reelection from solid republican to likely republican. it might be surprising but one key piece of data is the poll done by the des moines register by al seltzer who is the gold standard in iowa that had grass had i ahead 46 to 43 against mike franken. now, those of you who any of us that have doubted ann salter have barely lived to tell the sorry. that is something that i think we would take seriously. republican have their own poll, they think grassley will be fine. >> but we know better. >> grassley has the advantage but i think this is going to be a closer race. we're seeing it at the district level, too, grassley's numbers have been soft for months. >> that poll did was a big favor for chuck grassley. he came on the air this week with an ad against mike franken tying him to joe biden. so if there was any sort of sense of closeness there that probably is changing because polls are always a look at what has happened or backwards not forward. iowa democrats are pretty dispirited about their chances. the governor's race is so important. that's one of the many examples which is fascinating how many governor's races are tied to the senate races as well and kim reynolds republican governor is likely to win going away there. >> a few things surprising. this race was not really on anybody's radar, in some ways it almost seems like it wasn't on chuck grassly's radar that he would be in a bit of a fight here. this is a bit of what he was saying he put out a twitter video earlier today just to kind of give you a sense of where he's at in this race. >> would you please tell me how the high cost of gasoline and food has affected your family budget. >> he's in what looked like his senate office at the time, not in the state, but this is someone who is an incumbent, an incumbent of incumbents and is suddenly kind of having a little bit of a fight for his -- >> look, the quality of the video, i mean, if anyone who follows chuck grassley knows his twitter feed has been cast as part of his iowa charm. it's an entertaining follow for sure. >> on a tractor oftentimes. >> yes, and the mentions of various animals that come through. it's a lot. >> dairy queen. >> that, too. but, look, i think that the real risk here is that anyone, any politician who gets caught flatfooted because they are not paying attention can get surprised. it happened to eric kanter a high profile example of a person in leadership who was really, you know, caught -- i don't quite want to say with their pants down, not exactly what happened but caught unlocking a wears of what was going on around him. i think chuck grassley may be in a similar situation. if that poll gave him enough of a heads up to get on the air and get some of the gears moving from their perspective he may be able to protect himself, but it's just not -- we will see. >> we thank you for your very kind words about the des moines register poll which is a "usa today" network paper. the poll did show him 46-43, that's by no means saying that chuck grassley is on the ropes in this race but it is a shift as i think you were saying from likely or solidly republican which is still all republican in that race. i don't think anyone thinks that the balance of the senate will tip on the iowa senate race. >> overall the senate landscape remains very tight, nathan, right? i want to show folks this is the map of where inside elections has this as the battleground effectively, the yellow that you're seeing on your map, those are really the toss ups, nevada, georgia and pennsylvania. all the rest of them lean in one direction or another, but they're within the realm of the battleground. what is the take away about how -- who needs to do what in order to get control of the senate? >> they need to win every seat possible. our range continues to be anything from a republican gain of a seat to a democratic gain of a seat, which leaves room for either party could win, but within those two of those three circumstances or scenarios would be democratic control including the 50/50. i continue to believe whichever party wins two out of three out of nevada, georgia or pennsylvania will probably be in control. the races to watch are probably new hampshire and arizona which haven't been getting a lot of attention because of senator kelly's advantage or republicans not getting their top candidate in new hampshire. are those coming online? they are online but are they coming into tied scenarios which republicans are feeling very bullish about both races. >> new hampshire is another example of how a popular republican governor could potentially play a role in the senate race because governor sununu is almost certain to win and he could help pull bolduc over. one thing to keep in mind next week probably for all the debates we have see seen snippets of tuesday night in harrisburg pennsylvania when john fetterman and mehmet oz are coming face-to-face for a debate. i think that will help shape that race. all eyes will be on pennsylvania on election night. georgia into the next month because georgia is the only state of those battle grounds that has a runoff election so they have to get 50% so that will -- if control of the senate hinges on georgia we will be at this at least for another month. >> look, we are three weeks out, the momentum can shift a few times between now and november 8th. so everybody stand by on all of that. coming up next for us, president biden makes his own midterm prediction for democrats and he tests out a new midterm slogan. we desperately need more affordable housing, but san francisco takes longer than anywhere to issue new housing permits. proposition d is the only measure that speeds up construction of affordable new homes by removing bureaucratic roadblocks. while prop e makes it nearly impossible to build more housing. and the supervisors who sponsored e know it. join me, habitat for humanity and the carpenters union in rejecting prop e and supporting prop d to build more affordable housing ♪ the only thing i regret about my life was hiring local talent. if i knew about upwork. i would have hired actually talented people from all over the world. instead of talentless people from all over my house. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ president biden signed the inflation reduction act into law this afternoon. ok, so what exactly does it mean for you? 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it's so interesting to me. >> i can't imagine why that might be, but there is a part of this that is just raising the question and i think we should especially those of us who have covered white houses before, does the president campaigning for these candidates really end up mattering all that much? here is ron klain's take on that when asked about biden's strategy. >> both president obama, i was here, i will share responsibility for it, and president trump got walloped in the midterms. so i don't think it's a surprise to anyone that we are not using the strategy that failed in 2010 and the strategy that failed in 2018. what you're seeing is the president is traveling the country with democrat elected officials, democratic candidates and he is talking about the issues that really impact people. >> and democrats are kind of having the best of both worlds, abby. we get the president coming to their state where they go to receptions that aren't always on camera and they get to fund raise with the president among party insiders who want to donate money to their campaigns in order to be in the room with the president but yet they also don't have to be seen out there with the president of the united states. he says that there's roughly 15 to 20 people who are asking for him to come out on the campaign trail and we expect him to be out there more frequently, but at the same time some of the states we are not seeing him in are these top senate races, arizona, nevada, he was out on the western swing and didn't go to those states. actually there were two house members who are from nevada who went to the state of california to be at one of those fundraising receptions with the president. the white house says that he depose where people want him to be. the question is do they want him to be in some of those senate races in the final days. >> the challenge is there is no rosy way for democrats to spin it. the president is unpopular and in many cases he's more unpopular than some of the candidates who are democratic candidates who are running. people want to run for the democratic party but don't like the democratic president. that's one of these unusual things going on behind the scenes. as much as democrats want to say it's otherwise that's the reality of the challenge. people don't want to talk about questions of whether the president is going to be at his most effective self at these rallies and loud raucous events. perhaps if they thought he would they would put him in those scenarios but they are not. >> you want to play to the president's strength and, i mean, you heard him today, mega maga trickle down, i don't know if that's going to stick but where does he play the best? i think that the white house is basically saying we think that he is better raising money, we think he is better talking about policy and we don't think it's necessary to put him in front of a raucous crowd to what end. >> i think he's doing a lot more interviews than he has been previously really between the month before the election he will do more than in his entire presidency, but, look, i think that joe biden is not the rallying kind of guy. he didn't do that running for president but the question is about the purpose of rallies, they're organizing tools, they are for early voting, registering, getting volunteers. so that's why this actually matters not just simply holding a rally. ron klain has been around a lot of midterm elections making a bit of lemonade, it's our decision to not do it. >> that's what i was reacting to. >> he is not in demand. he just is -- that's not the kind of person -- that's not saying what he's doing isn't effective, though, talking about the accomplishments i think is something, but there's going to be a democratic president out there doing rallies and that's barack obama starting next friday, saturday and then the following week in nevada. >> i think that the moral of the story is there's probably one big democratic star still on the table and it's president obama who will be out next week. coming up next for us, the sleeper senate races that you should be paying attention to and that could tip the balance of power. veteran, dad, hair stylist. so adding a student title might feel dauntining. national university is here to support all your titleses. nationonal university. so adding a student title might feel dauntining. supporting the whole you. here is something you should keep an eye on, democrats fighting to win close races out west and in new york of all places. republicans hope that key issues like crime and inflation may give them an opening to pick up seats in these places that are typically leaning blue. that is bad news for democrats who really cannot afford to lose ground in their fight to defy history, frankly, and to keep control of the house and the senate. my panel is back with me. in particular, one of the toughest senate races is turning out to be in the west, in the state of nevada you have catherine cortez masto going up against laxalt. >> nevada, i would say under normal circumstances leans blue but these are not particularly normal midterm circumstances. where we've seen republicans make gains in nevada is in midterm elections, particularly with the democratic president, that's where we are. i think nevada is fascinating because laxalt is a good example that i believe political experience matters. we haven't seen him have the same kind of struggles who we've seen blake masters or herschel walker or j.d. vance in ohio first time candidates who have struggled to get their general election sea legs. but nevada it's been at the core of the battleground and remains there i think until november. >> this week we heard rick scott the national republican senatorial committee leader have an optimistic view of what he thought republicans would view. as far as republicans are concerned rick scott saying that he thinks they could get up to 55 seats even. they would have to run the table essentially and win all of these competitive, all of the competitive seats that democrats are currently holding in the united states senate, including colorado which right now you see the inn couple ent bent up by more than 8 points against republican geo day. >> they aren't even on the table. >> right. to be clear, nathan, you are much more conservative about the outlook in the senate. you're thinking one move forward for the democrats or one move forward for the republicans, not really a whole lot more than that. >> if things break late maybe they're plus two, plus three, but plus five is a lot. >> seems very optimistic. we can go back to nevada for a second. i find this race particularly interesting because it will showcase a couple of the sort of trends that are going on more broadly like, yes, it's one single state, but first of all, if you look at those numbers and how close they are, i think that's going to give us a good barometer of where the done friday is. you're right that adam laxalt is a -- they are both blank slates compared to, say, pennsylvania for georgia where the candidates are extremely well-known. you get this purer test. the other thing it's going to show, hispanic voters we never want to make the mistake of lumping them all together, first of all, that can be offensive to people but it's not politically astute but there is one kind of hispanic voter tip a if i had in nevada and we're going to get a real good test of where they are. are they with the republican party more than they are with the democratic party? this has been one of the trends ongoing, concerns democratic strategists as it should. >> the economy looms large in nevada where the hospitality industry is such an important part of the economy. i do want to talk about what's going on in new york. in new york you've not according to nathan's race ratings, go on and look at them, you are moving by my count five new york congressional races away from the democrats. that is part of a microcosm of what's going on in that state where crime is on the ballot. listen to some of these ads playing in new york on this very issue. >> underfunded police, ending cash bail, releasing violent criminals back on our streets, robert zimmerman supports the reckless policies that supported this crime wave. >> cashless bail is a threat to every nassau family. unfortunately laura gillen doesn't get in a. >> kathy hochul knows the more you focus on her record the less you will want her as governor. >> this is -- it's new york, right? >> right. >> a blue state but democrats are in a fight in the governor's race and in many of these congressional seats. >> without a doubt. one of the biggest reasons you mentioned five seats that's all it takes for republicans to win the majority, that is why democrats are so worried about new york city. they have a very unfavoring and surprising redistricting hand handed to them. this goes back to andrew cuomo, we can talk about why this happened. >> that's a whole other show. >> now that it is happening there are very, very tough races happening in congressional seats. yes, it's a blue state. there are many, many, many republicans in the state of new york. yes, they are going to win some of those seats. the governor's race we'll see. kathy hochul is a new governor and crime is an issue but this is one of the things that it's a choice not a referendum on her necessarily. if she can make it into a choice with leave zeldin who has the january 6th history of his own but the fact that democrats are spending as much money in new york that's certainly one of the issues. back to the economy for one quick second. i think if you had to frame the question facing voters, abortion or the economy, that is really what's going to -- it's going to come down to. i was in michigan this week and that is really -- there's a sense and i'm not sure that i trust most polls at this point because pollsters and a lot of people have different views on abortion, they're not going to tell a pollster. let's be a little bit -- let's just let this play out. >> it is a push and pull and we don't know how that tug of war is going to end up between the economy and abortion. coming up next for us a cnn exclusive, about the biden administration is in talks with elon musk about iran. we have new and exclusive cnn reporting now. the biden white house is negotiating with elon musk to provide dissidents inside of iran with satellite internet. natasha bertrand broke this story. natasha, the white house has been looking for ways to help and support these protesters inside of iran and now they're turning to elon musk? >> that's right, abby. we're learning that the white house has had conversations with elon news i can in recent weeks about potentially setting up the star link satellite system inside iran. star lyncoln cysts of a number of satellites that orbit and lower orbit that can connect to terminals on the ground. the problem with this issue is that there are going to be a lot of difficulties actually getting those terminals on the ground in iran. because it's not like ukraine where the government actually wants these systems to be there so that it can expand internet access for military personnel there. in iran this is actually going to be used if it is implemented by dissidents, by activists that the iranian government obviously is trying to censure. the white house uses it as one solution to expand internet access for the iranian activists and protesters on the ground who have been protesting for just over a month now over the death of that woman who was in iranian custody for violating morality police rules. so this is an area where the biden administration wants to help, but obviously there are a lot of questions about whether elon news i can is the right person to do that given his volatility in his dealings with the u.s. government in the past, abby. >> yeah, that's exactly right. very fascinating reporting, natasha. thank you. while donald trump remains the dominant figure within the republican party and on the campaign trail we now have reporting about the brand that former vice president mike pence is building. republicans say that pence has quietly been a reliable presence pulling in more than $10 million for gop candidates in key battleground states. cnn's michael warren is joining us with this new reporting. michael, tell us what is pence doing out on the trail? he is this in demand surrogate now that he is no longer the vice president. >> he's keeping very busy this midterm cycle. today he is in kansas raising money and campaigning for derek schmidt running against the democratic governor laura kelly. he has a final final couple of weeks. he will be campaigning for candidates in washington state, in north carolina, in pennsylvania and even in virginia and he's even going to be doing a bus tour with georgia governor brian kemp who he of course supported in that primary in may and now supporting him here in the general election. as you say he's been raising a lot of money, more than $10 million for republican candidates, visiting something like 32 states this cycle. he's trying to help republicans, he says he wants to get republicans to win majorities and add more governors, but of course we know the context of this, he wants to also run for president in 2024, he's laying the groundwork for that. picking up a lot of chips by doing all of this work and helping out republicans. >> building support among the establishment. it is not a huge surprise that he is a hit with the donor class. what does this tell us if anything about whether actual voters are open to -- trump voters in particular are open to mike pence. >> it's a big question. pence has been trying to campaign for a broad spectrum of republicans across the parties, campaigned for david val dee owe one of the impeaching ten, also supported maga candidates like blake masters in the senate but in -- in arizona, but there is a problem which is that the polling shows it's early, yes, but former president donald trump, florida governor doopts pulling bigger numbers among those republican voters who say that's who they want to be their standard bearer in 2024. pence sort of a distant third in all lot of these but it's a long time and he is building relationships with donors, with operatives and it's starting to turn heads within the republican party. >> he mplayed a little coy on te 2024 sweepstakes because he was clear he is considering a run. thank you so much for that excellent reporting. coming up next, trump's boeing 757 is ready for takeoff again and a european leader on tape touting a gift from the russian president vladimir putin. it's nice to unwind after a long week of telling people how liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. showtime. whoo! i'm onon fire tonight. 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